The Mid American Conference has been beat up in bowl games in recent years, but on Day One of the new postseason the conference has a chance to–GASP–extend a winning streak. The league had lost 14 straight bowl games until Central Michigan topped Troy a year ago in the GMAC (giving the JCB a winner in the process) in the second to last game of the bowl rush a year ago. After being the butt of jokes due to that losing streak, the conference has a chance on the first day of festivities to get some positive momentum going. Even if they split their games today, it would be a good result for the conference. If they drop both, cue up the talk of another losing streak. During the roundtable discussion yesterday, our JCB panelists were somewhat bullish on the league’s chances in the postseason. Every game they’re slated to play carries a small pointspread, so they appear to be going up against equals, unlike half of the situations during the losing streak. Northern Illinois and Ohio carry the league’s banner today. These teams should have played in the MAC Title Game. Each have to muster a rebound effort after miserably failing in their last contest. Ohio lost to Kent to close out their regular season, a defeat that cost them a spot in the league title game. Northern Illinois, just 15 days ago, lost as 18.5-point favorites to Miami in said MAC Title Game. Can they rebound? With so many of their coaches bolting for bigger jobs, the league is at a crossroads and could use some good on field results during the postseason. As for their opponents, can Fresno State shake its reputation of failure in mid-major showdowns? Then, there is Troy. Between these two games, the Trojans are the biggest favorite, but they come in with the worst defense of these four teams. I actually like the MAC teams today–and its not just because I am a homer who lives right in the middle of league territory. Alright, maybe its some of that. But there are sound reasons as well, I promise.
Humanitarian Bowl: Fresno State vs Northern Illinois, 5:30, ESPN. Lines NIU -1, O/U 57.5
New Orleans Bowl: Troy vs Ohio, 8:00, ESPN. Lines, Troy -3, O/U 58
I’ve turned this Fresno/Northern Illinois matchup over in my head a number of different times in recent days. Every single metric favors the Huskies. Northern is 50 spots better than Fresno in total offense, 42 spots better in scoring offense, 39 spots better in rushing offense, 38 spots better in rushing defense, 62 spots better in scoring defense and a whopping 94 spots better in turnover margin. How about those new fangled, tempo free-type statistics? According to the Fremeau Effeciency Index, the 41rst ranked Huskies are 37 spots better than the 78th ranked Bulldogs, one of the biggest gaps between any combatants this bowl season. On paper, its one of the biggest mismatches during this bowl run.
But, games arent played on paper. They’re played on football fields inside of TVs. And emotion plays such a huge part of it, which is why I end up eventually mentally slowing my roll on Northern in this one. How in the world are they going to react to the events of the last 15 days? They choked away the MAC Championship Game earlier this month. Typically teams that enter a bowl off a double digit loss to the spot when favored by double digts (the Huskies were -18 against Miami in the MAC Title Game) as their 4-11 ATS mark in that position would attest. Then there coach bolts for the Minnesota, takes some assistatns with him, leaving the team in the hands of interim lame duck coach. Some of the players have to still be spinning wondering what in the world is happening to them, right? Its almost impossible not to have doubts about how this team will bounce back with all the bad news. Toss in the fact that the underdog is 10-0 ATS in Fresno bowl games combined with MAC teams being on a 0-10-1 ATS postseason run, and you’re beginning to make a case to pull the trigger for the Bulldogs. Read more »
