I wont lie.
Despite the overwhelming evidence that Super Bowl losers are a good bet to lose more games the following year, I am uneasy about expecting that trend to continue with the 2009 Cardinals. I laid out strong numbers last month making the case for another historic, hungover fall from grace for the Super Bowl loser. With the Cardinals notching nine wins a year ago, the oddsmakers have set Arizona’s O/U total for regular season wins at 8.5. To go Under that total, all Arizona needs to do is lose at least one more game this year than last, an ignoble achievement all but one of the last 15 Super Bowl runners-up have managed.
Normally, I would dive in with that kind of history of my side. With the Cardinals, however, I am wading toe first into water. Here’s three reasons why:
1.) The NFC West. None of the other three teams in the dvision had a winning record last year with two coming in with no more than four. The second place team has had six losing seasons in a row. Arizona owns a 16-8 mark against these guys over the last four seasons. They could easily bank more than half the wins needed to equal last season’s win mark in divisional play alone. I expect the Seahawks and 49ers to be improved, but they also have a lot of question marks. We’ll have to keep a close eye on their camps to see if they’re ready to compete with the Cards. If so, maybe I’ll start thinking about going at least neck deep in the water.
2.) I fear taking Unders. I am always incomfortable taking Unders. Its like rooting for failure. And, if a flurry of points are scored early, you spend the rest of the game begging for failure and not having any fun on the ride. Anyway, here’s my qualm with this Under: You would expect a hot Super Bowl runner up to come back the following year with a double digit O/U total for regular season wins. The Cards check in at 8.5. While some may say its a tell tale sign that even the experts in the desert expect the Cards to have a mediocre fall out, I automatically am concerned by such a low-looking total. All the Cards need to do is capture last January’s magic for three weeks or so this season, and the Under will be toast.
3.) The Cards have an easy final lap. Their final four games of the season look dough boy soft and ready made for a strong closing kick. Arizona closes at San Francisco and at Detroit before wrapping up on a two-game homestand against St. Louis and Green Bay. Those teams went a combined 15-49 in 2008. Even if the Cards plod along all season, the specter of a winning streak looms at the end of the year. I can see a 6-6 Arizona team closing 3-1 against that bunch to come into the barn at 9-7. You could also see them easily missing the playoffs in that scenario, which would be in the spirit of the Super Bowl hangover, but still bust the under bet of 8.5 wins. Read more »
