Posts Tagged ‘ I Love Bowls ’

Bowl Chronicles: St Petersburg Bowl/Pre Christmas Favorites Edition

December 19, 2009
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St. Petersburg Bowl: Rutgers -3 over Central Florida, O/U 44.5. Moneyline, Rutgers -145, UCF +125

In each of the last three years, a Big East team has mauled a Conference USA team by double digits in a pre-Christmas Day bowl game. In the Papajohns’s Bowl, USF crunched ECu 24-7 in 2006 and Cincy outraced Southern Miss 31-21 in 2007. Last season in the debut of the St. Pete Bowl, USF routed Memphis 41-17.  That history of head-to-heads between the leagues has me listening to Rutgers laying the small chalk tonight against UCF.

So too does the simple bowl philosophy that many people like to follow this time of year. It’s a chronological pattern. Basically start out by betting the favorites through Christmas Day. For the rest of December jump onto the Underdogs, but when the New Year hits get back on the chalk train. Admittedly, the numbers dont back this up enough to go out and do this blind from start to finish. But, I find it at least a good jumping off point when breaking down the entire bowl slate.  One reason is because it seems every year the underdogs howl on a big run at some point. And, since the glut of bowl games typically takes place in that week after Christmas, many bettors have got fat betting late December underdogs.  So, keep an eye for that run and dont be hesitant to play an underdog if you like the side during the post Christmas portion of the program. That’s about as far as I will go in preaching the virutes of starting and stopping your analysis with this chalk to dog to chalk path for the bowl season.

When I say the numbers dont back up doing this on the blind, I am talking about the fact that pre-Christmas Day favorites are just 28-26 ATS the last 10 seasons. If you bet a unit, with standard vig applying, on each game, you would actually be down 0.6 units. I’ve never really put too much stock in this end of the theory. I am on the other end of the theory in January if only because I always seem to do so ‘blah’ on New Year’s Day and a lot of it stems from taking eventually outclassed dogs in those big games. Full confession, if you’re looking for the sucker whose been betting the Big 10 in the Rose Bowl the last few years, your search is over. I is sucker. Nice to meet you.

Getting back to the pre-Christmas Day end, one reason I dont buy into the theory whole heartily is due to the overall explosion of bowl games, particularily on this end of the slate. I have several rules about assessing the effectiveness of systems and trends. One of them is to beware when a system that crops up two or three times a season suddenly pops up a bunch on one Saturday. I have the same feeling here. After beginning the decade with just four pre-Christmas Day bowl games, the number of contests held on or before December 25 have increased so much that the average number of games over the last ten seasons is actually more than six during this part of bowl season.

Through the end of the 1990s and into this decade, there basically was just a couple of these games a season. The MAC and WAC met in the Las Vegas Bowl and then a Christmas Day Aloha Bowl between teams from BCS leagues pretty much was it. A second game in Hawaii was added, played sometimes on Christmas Eve  or as a Xmas Doubleheader. It too typically included a pair of BCS teams. That pretty much was it and it all but started the bowl season. We saw some good efforts in those games, such as Akili Smith making millions even though his team fell short in a shootout against Colorado. And, who in their right mind could forget Washington dropping 52 on Sparty in the 1997 edition. Man, I think I just saw Rashan Shehee score a touchdown.

In 2001, the New Orleans and GMAC Bowls debuted. And, even though the second bowl game in Hawaii was contracted, the number of new bowl games added overall and the subsequent scheduling challenges of getting them all on TV has created the need to expand bowl season to the size it is today where the games begin on a daily basis a full week before Christmas Day. This is the seventh year in a row there have been at least a half dozen bowls on or before Christmas.  To me, we’re still learning about the different motivation levels and matchup issues created in these early games, which often pit mid majors against each other or with a middle class team from a BCS league. Read more »

Bowl Chronicles: Pokes/Dogs In New Mexico

December 19, 2009
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Ho Ho Ho, Happy Bowl Season, Everyone!

Another bowl extravaganza is upon us, a sprint of postseason exhibitions virtually every day from here on out, culminating with the BCS Title Game between Texas and Alabama 20 days from now. We get started today with a doubleheader with the New Mexico and St. Peterburg Bowls. As important, is the debut edition of the 2009-10 Bowl Chronicle series. Here’s the routine, we will have a Bowl Chronicle Edition for every day there is a bowl game, and, in some cases, like today, when there are more than one game, we will have multiple posts. Each post will include at the end of the commentary and breakdown, a prediction or two, against the spread, on the games in question in the post. I did this last year at MGoBlog and, the season before that, did something similar at a more point spread topical forum. Both times ended with a profitable bowl run, so lets try to keep the positive bowl tidings rolling for another season.

We begin the bowl march this afternoon with the New Mexico Bowl, pitting Fresno State against Wyoming. Some arent too enthused about this game. But, I say hogwash to those naysayers. I mean, what’s not to like about this matchup? We finally get to solve a bitter fued thats been dividing college football fans all season long: which has the stronger middle class of 6 to 8 win teams, the Mountain West or the Western Athletic Conference? Debate ends today. The Bulldogs and Cowboys will battle this afternoon with all the evidence on the line. That, and they play off for a pretty sweet looking set of trophies.

Wyoming? Wyoming!

For the third year in the four-year history of the New Mexico Bowl, a team with a losing record from the year before pulled in enough wins this go around to net bowl eligibility and a spot on this field. In 2006, San Jose rose up after five straight losing seasons to qualify for this game and, last season, Colorado State shook off consecutive losing campaigns to earn a pre-Christmas weekend in New Mexico.

This season, its the surprising Wyoming Cowboys out of the Mountain West who’ve gone rags to riches on us. Heading into the season, the Pokes had just one winning season this decade, averaging less than four wins a season. Bowl games have been rare in Laramie. This is just their first since 1994, their third since 1990 and only their fifth in the last 32 seasons. Until they upset UCLA in the 2004 Las Vegas Bowl, Wyoming’s most notable bowl accomplishment this generation was being on the other end of a Barry Sanders whooping stick in the 1988 Holiday Bowl. Sanders went off for 222 yards and five scores in just three quarters of work, showing no signs of the Heisman Jinx that has betrayed many of his brethern. Read more »

Preseason Bowl Chronicles: Las Vegas Bowl

July 23, 2009
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My call for BYU to win the MWC in 2009 begins and ends with these numbers, courtesy of Phil Steele’s preseason magazine: The last four times BYU has had a senior quarterback, they have won their conference title. Going back further into program history, whenever BYU has hd a senior starting QB they have a combined 106-23-2 record.

Good enough for me, especially with Max Hall back at the controls after throwing for a shade under 4,000 yards and accounting for 39 total touchdowns during his junior campaign.

I also like the fact that fellow offensive playmakers Harvey Unga and Dennis Pitta have healed from injuries which dogged them at different times in 2008. Behind this trio of stars, the Cougars will have no problem hanging 35 or more points against just about everyone on their schedule.

Defensively, look for one of the most experienced units seen in BYU iduringrecent years to improve upon last year’s results, which dipped from the previous two years efforts. After avergaing 4 returning starters over the last 5 years, the Cougars have eight back this season including two ALL MWC performers from a year ago at DE and LB.

The showdown with TCU that will turn the league race takes place in Provo, where BYU is riding an 18-game winning streak. Nobody has come within a touchdown of the Cougars during this streak. Sometimes thats the difference when you’re making bowl predictions in July.
 
 The one problem with the pick is that it puts the Cougars back in the Las Vegas Bowl for the fifth straight season. That just seems odd. Not to mention unimaginative of me. But, hey, its where the league champ is earmarked to go, so why overthink things? Read more »

Preseason Bowl Chronicles: St Petersburg Bowl Hosts Sunshine State Rivalry

July 21, 2009
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Have you ever wondered who had the better middle-of-the-pack also rans, the Big East or Conference USA? Well, that’s what we have the St. Petersburg Bowl for as reps from those leagues will hook up. With those kind of stakes, it’s a near lock that the bowl, in only its second year, will develop into a fixture for the Most Wonderful TIme of the Year. If organizers could only get those ruffians at the WLA to stop calling it the Leningrad Bowl, then a January date is surely in its future. Book it.

Both of these leagues will need to go six deep to get qualifiers here, but I dont think that will be a problem. Each conference has had six bowl eligible teams for three years running and had this bowl and this tie-in both existed the whole time, all of those teams would have played an extra game.

Initially, I planned on calling UCONN for this game, because I think they might have the worst record of the eventual Big East bowlers. But, upon further reviewing, we’re selecting the USF Bulls to play the UCF Golden Knights.

Obviously, practical reasons exist for these selections. With a questionable economy, the movers and shakers of the bowl world will do just enough manipulation to keep teams close to home as possible. For the St Petersburg Bowl, its a perfect time to get together these in state rivals for a local showdown. It will likely boost attendance and buzz, both important factors for a bowl that’s just 2-years-old.

Many folks probably have higher expectations for USF, but I dont.  For starters, they have never lost less than three Big East games in any season since they joined the league and went 2-5 in confernece play last year. While they should breeze through their first three games of the season, I find it difficult seeing them doing any better than alternating wins and losses once league play begins, especially since out of conference grudge matches against Florida State and Miami Florida are sprinkled in once autumn arrives. If they dont improve their 2-5 league mark or get scalps of the Noles or Canes, they might not win enough to become bowl eligible.

Also: Matt Grothe remains their quarterback. For some reason, many in the MSM love this kid’s game. I go the other way. I think he’s terrible and his inconsistent play has really held the program back the last couple of years. I need to confer with a linguist, but I believe Grothe was a word the Ancient Incas used to mean Interception Machine. I dont know, maybe something gets lost in translation. Read more »

Preseason Bowl Chronicles: New Mexico Bowl Seeks Cinderella

July 20, 2009
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Ed Note: We dont do ranking countdowns at justcoverblog. We count down Bowl Projections. With 34 bowls to project and only 45 days until the beginning of the season, we’ll unveil a bowl projection almost every day until then. Today, we breakdown which mid majors will convene for the New Mexico Bowl.

 

For the fourth year in a row, the Mountain West and Western Athletic conferences will swap paint in the New Mexico Bowl as part of the bowl extravaganza. This season, it will be the very first bowl played of the season on December 19. I trust you’re aware that we are within the 150-day window until that event. Of course, you are.

One thing history tells us about this matchup is do not be surprised if a team from far off the rail notches an invite. In 2006, San Jose State made an appearance after five straight losing records. Last year, Colorado State won this game on the heels of 4- and 3-win seasons.

I have no problem calling for another Cinderella run to Albuquerque and a 13th game. In fact, I’m grabbing a team from the deep end of the pool to qualify. Hey, it’s my first bowl prediction of the site. I might as well do something attention grabbing.

To that end, I’m calling for San Diego State to come out of the MWC to play the WAC’s Fresno State in the bowl season lid lifter.

San Diego State!?!? The same Aztecs team that has had 10 consecutive losing records? The same Aztec program that has seen two straight head coaches come and go without a winning season? You have got to be kidding me!

Yes, that one. San Diego State. University of. In San Diego. Read more »