Posts Tagged ‘ I Am A Degenerate ’

Draws Dominate EPL Round One; Brand Names Highlight Champions League Playoff Legs

August 15, 2011
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The English Premier League debuted their new campaign over the weekend, stealing the script from this summer’s Copa America. The much hyped South American Championship in July fell short of expectations under the weight of contstant draws, so much so that Paraguay got all the way to the finals without winning a game. The EPL felt a little bit like that as the opening round dances were, by and large, taffy pulls, ending in draws. Sure, five out of nine matches ending in a tie isnt a shocking result, but it took wins by heavy favorites Manchester United and Manchester City in the final two fixtures of the weekend to make the balance that close. Draws dominated Saturday: Fulham and Villa’s nil-nil bog; Newcastle and Arsenal’s own nil-nil display,  made at least exciting by a chippy second half eventually leading to the now (another) infamous Joey Barton meltdown;  Sunderland spoiling the party and earning a point against revamped Liverpool; and Norwich City drawing Wigan and earning its first EPL point in more than 16 years.  Sunday morning, Stoke continued its curious habit of drawing against top teams at home by deadlocking Chelsea in the weekend’s third nil-nil game.  Joe Betting Public took a bath taking home teams to win. Only Manchester City, at whopping -312 in juice mind you, won on their home pitch for their boosters this weekend. It was a nifty weekend for the JCB, however. Let’s take stock:

Norwich City’s draw against Wigan was not only a solid debut in the EPL for the Canaries, but helped the JCB pull a profit in the only single match we invested  in on the weekend. We put a unit on them winning and another on the draw and with the 1-1 result netted a 1.30 unit profit with the draw paying out at +230. Our future plays got off to good starts. Liverpool snatched 1 point from 3, thanks to a defensive breakdown and a second half as chaotically bad as the first was magically hopeful. Despite a thrilling new look, the result was the same old song and dance for the Reds. In the process, it helped out the Under 67.5 total points bet the JCB has in our pocket. We got the first of what we hope will be beaucoup 3-point efforts from ManU. While a win over West Brom isnt much to sneeze at, the Red Devils did only win five times away from Old Tratford a year ago, so we found it exciting. And, hey, they didnt even come close to playing their best lineup and couldnt beat West Ham a year ago. We’re not too concerned about the soft goals David de Gea has been allowing this month, but we’re more concerned about the mounting injuries, especially on the back line, that are hitting the Red Devils. But, then, again there isnt a deeper team in the league than Man U, and we figured that all hands would need to be on deck eventually to hit the over 81.5 points. And each of our top goal scorer picsks, Luis Suarez and Wayne Rooney found the back of the net. Are we worried about the impending Sergio Aguero storm brewing in Man City? No, not yet, although his two goals in less than a half of play was impressive in the 4-0 win over Swansea City. The never ending soccer season has only begun, but we do feel good about how it started.

Champions League Playoff Round

While we’re all pumped the big club seasons are beginning, we dont have to wait for the next weekend for some more action. Attention moves to the 10 two-leg playoff rounds to determine the final spots for the Champions League Group Stage. Those first legs are played over the next two days. On one hand, we could call this an exercise in determining which teams serve as cannon fodder for the continent’s best this fall during Group Stage. A year ago, for example, only 2 of these winners survived into the Knockout Round. However, this year the playoff round is notable for the brand name teams who have found themselves needing to still win an early playoff tie to stay in the tournament. Arsenal, Bayern Munich and Lyons are 23 for 24 in qualifying for the Knockout Round since the current single group stage format was instituted in 2003-04. Only Bayern Munich’s 2006-07 squad, which didnt make the field period, missed out on playing European football into the new calendar year. This season all three of these Final 16 regulars have to navigate the tricky playoff round just to get into a group stage.

Arsenal hosts Serie A’s  Udinese in their first playoff leg today and we’ll get a chance right out of the box to see how the Gunners look now that they are finally clear of the Cesc Fabergas saga. Will they look any better than they did against Newcastle on Saturday? Probably not yet. Arsenal needs to spend their Fabergas bounty during the final two weeks of the transfer season. Their travelling fans at Newcastle took to chanting ‘spend the fucking money‘ and that was before they formally cashed out on Fabergas. What was most evident in their EPL lid lifter against the Magpies was they didnt look capable of scoring.  The Gunners looked slow, sluggish and lacked creativity. New signee Gervinho looked threatening at times, but didnt come close to finishing and then ultimately was tossed earning a red card in the Barton brewhaha. Their only real, memorable chance came on a clean shot from Theo Walcott, who came on as a second half sub, that was saved fairly easily by the Newcastle keeper. Robin Van Persie was active up front, but didnt have much support.  Will this game with Udinese just hammer home the initial ‘meh’ look to the Gunners attack? If so, expect the calls for Wegner to spend big and bring back Samir Nasri to grow. Udinese lost some talent of their own with Alexis Sanchez leaving for Barcelona.  But, they’re still a quality Italian side that went on a big time tear last year after going winless in their first five games.  They have a world class goalie with Samir Handanovic and a big time goal scorer Antonio Di Natale, whose scored 57 goals the last two campaigns in Serie A. Can Arsenal hold him down? Its not that hard to imagine the Italian knocking home a goal and Udinese getting enough quality goal keeping out of Handanovic to get a 1-1 draw. I know I dont trust Arsenal at the juicy -192 odds to win, and those 3/1 odds on the draw look tempting because right now, as the Gunners are constituted, I dont think they can actually beat quality teams. I think this is the best matchup of the 10 and with Arsenal facing killer EPL games against Liverpool and ManU to close the month, I’m sitting this one out and just observing. Arsenal just seems like a confusing team to handicap right now, especially in this event. Read more »

Copa America Semifinals: The Story Is Who Isn’t Playing Anymore

July 19, 2011
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When looking at the Copa America semifinals, it’s probably best to take a look at the teams that aren’t playing this week. Namely South American powers Brazil and Argentina. Uh, guys, this continental championship was supposed to be your time in the sun, what happened? The tournament’s Big Guns crashed out. Neither team ever really got going during this event, spending most of group play being ground into draws against less stellar competition. Somehow neither won their group, forcing a real screwy looking Knockout Round bracket. Both had to play a rival that qualified for the final 16 in last year’s World Cup. Both battled hard in a draw, but lost in penalty kicks. Argentina fell to the disciplned defense of Uruguay and Brazil failiedto net a single PK goal in its shootout loss to Paraguay. Somewhere Diego Maradona and Dunga are somewhere playing cards together enjoying a good laugh. Unless Maradona is face down somewhere after a night out with strippers and blow. But maybe last year’s World Cup “failures” werent all their fault after all.

So what happened? Not to make excuses, but its a short tournament and sometimes its hard for these All Star national teams to whip together the proper on field chemistry and form. Teams like Peru and Venezuela, made up of players from their local club leagues, just have more experience playing with each other. It seemed to pay off tactically in Group Stage for some of the alleged minnows in this field. Beyond that, maybe Argentina has too much talent. Much was made of Maradona not knowing how to use the uber talent of Lionel Messi. While new coach Sergio Batista may have a better grip on that challenge, maybe he and the Argentinian federation dont know themselves yet how to build a quality side around Messi. The all star route might need to be altered a bit and focus more on the team building concept, the way USA Basketball did in the wake of their 2004 Olympic failures. Or maybe the new coach was just playing the wrong guys. Perhaps Sergio Aguero should have played more. Or Javier Pastore. Or even Higuan, who showed international scoring touch last summer in South Africa. Something isnt right, thats for sure. Messi is peaking, yet the Argentines looked worse in Copa America than they did last summer at the World Cup.

As for Brazil, what can you say? That’s consecutive summers where this majestically talented roster has fallen flat in international play. Here’s a thought. Maybe Brazil isnt Brazil anymore. Maybe they are just an ordinary side, good enough to beat a lot of teams, but not among the elites like a Spain or Holland. A South American version of the Three Lions. Just a thought. Of course, they were relying a lot in this event on the 19-year-old Neymar and maybe he just wasnt up for the task. Its going to be a long three years of planning and creating a better side in advance of the 2014 World Cup the Brazilians are hosting.

So, the tournament favorites are out. Dreams of a titanic Argentina-Brazil clash have been dashed. There isnt even a loser’s bracket in this field, so we dont even have the chance of the best fifth-place game ever with these sides. What we do have are two countries trying to prove that South America is more than a two-country continent and two countries on something akin to Cinderella runs. Uruguay and Paraguay more than impressed against the world in South Africa a year ago. While they werent great bets to win this event, their place in the semis is not a surprise. But, Peru and Venezuela? They were 125/1 and 60/1 shots to win this event and both were considered the worst team in their 4-team group when the tournament began. Today Uruguay and Peru battle while tomorrow night Paraguay and Venezuela will play to fill out the last championship slot.

This reminds me a lot of the playoffs after the 1996 NFL season when second year franchises Carolina and Jacksonville made it to the NFC and AFC title games respectively. I wanted to see both win for an ultimate Cinderella showdown for the title, or I wanted to see both lose so we wouldnt have a mismatch, at least on paper, with the championship on the line. So, I guess, as a fan, I am pulling for either Uruguay vs Paraguay or Peru vs Venezuela. As a gambler, however, why jump off Draw. This tournament has been Drawtastic. In 22 matches, half of them have ended regulation in a draw. Since you’re getting at least 2/1 odds on a Draw for most games, those playing on the Draw line since the tournament began are banking big bucks. Three quarterfinals ended regulation in a draw and despite the Giant vs Giant Killer feel to this next round, I would be surprised if at least one of these matches didnt end in a regulation tie. In the end, I am going with the chalk to at least advance into the finals. It takes luck to win events like that. And, thats what Peru and Venezuela had going for them last weekend in the quarterfinals. Columbia whiffed on some point blank chances against Peru and then saw their keeper undergo a couple of mind cramps in extra time paving the way for the Peruvian win. Venezuela benefitted from Chile’s burning love affair with hitting the post,, or else they would have been eliminated. Those breaks dont come either of their ways this go around. Uruguay and Paraguay advance to Sunday’s South American Championship match. Book It.

Women’s World Cup: Whose Futbol Magic Will Continue?

July 12, 2011
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Alright semifinal round, top that. Wow, those quarterfinal games were gripping. Three games playing into overtime, with three momentum swinging goals near or at the final whistle and two games needing the PK phase. We had one of the game’s best rivalries in Brazil/USA give us an Instant Classic. We had a huge upset with the 10/1 to advance Japan squad taking out the tournament chalk Germans. We had the arrival of two talented clubs in Sweden and France, ready to make the Big 3 nothing more than an old soccer cliche. Because of how great the USA game was, you almost forget how dramatic and classic the French and Japanese wins were the day before. I really didnt think the soccer could get better than that doubleheader on Saturday. And then USA/Brazil happened. In two consecutive summers, I have nearly blown out a knee celebrating an unlikely, heroic goal to keep an American team alive in World Cup action with Ian Darke singing Incredible and other assorted poetry in the background both times. Well done, Soccer. Well done. So what do you have in store for us today?

USA vs France

Neither team should be here right now. Both should be home, wondering what went wrong. Instead each side got late, dramatic goals, both of which will go down among the classics in international soccer. France scored in the waning minutes of regulation on a screamer from Elise Bussaglia from just outside of the box to force overtime en route to winning on penalty kicks. And, we all saw what the Americans did on Sunday. Abby Wambach’s header, seconds before the final whistle, from the perfect, long ball off the toe of Megan Rapinoe rocked the country out of its sporting, summer slumber and the Yanks have been America’s darling ever since. One club will find out today that all nine of their lives are up.

These are probably the two most talented teams remaining in the field. Both are deep and can score from different vantage points of the pitch. Luckily, the US have Hope. To me, this game comes down to Hope Solo versus the daring shooters of France. The Ladie Blues have upwards of six players that will drill the ball towards the frame once given even the slightest opening. They have powerful legs and they arent shy about showing them off. And, no, that’s not some hidden meaning comment about some of their nude photos prior to this event. Well, maybe just a little.  But for real, they will look to test the keeper all day with shots on frame anywhere they can take them. They tried all night against England until finally one banged home to tie the game. Get ready for Gaetane Thinney, Louisa Necib, Marie-Laure Delie, Camile Abily and Bussaglia. They will pepper Solo all game. They are going to shoot and shoot and shoot. Will the world’s best goaltender be up to the challenge? Or will a French kick bend just out of her reach, possibly delivering the decisive goal? I think Solo is going to have to make at least one acrobatic, world class save in each half to keep the Americans in the game.  Regardless, we’ll still love her when its all over.

It will be a tough afternoon for American defenders. The Frnech will be a reality check for the Americans. This French team is fast, they will run all day and they love to freelance. Beware the 4-2-3-1 attack of France. Their attacking force have the greenlight to stray anywhere on the field and defenders Sonia Bombpastor and Laure Lapailleur are constantly running up in support. Can the Americans keep up? I tend to think they cant. I really do think this French team is talented. The American backs did a fine job containing Brazil, but France should run them a bit more all over the field. However, the Americans may have some of that futbol magic on their side. I am loathe to pick against them, even though the JCB reverse jinx worked like a charm in the Brazil match. I like both of these teams a lot. So, I am picking a 1-1 draw after regulation. From there, I am all about USA#1 Read more »

Death Or Glory, Ladies Style: Women’s World Cup Quarterfinals

July 9, 2011
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It’s International Soccer. It’s a Knockout Round. It’s time for Death or Glory.

I wont lie. I’ve been enjoying the Women’s World Cup. Its been an exciting brand of soccer. Most of the games have been tight and  competitive. There’s been a lot of offense and goals.  And, there appears to be a lot less of that annoying diving crap that ruins soccer for a lot of American sports fans. Plus, its international soccer, which I already copped a love for a year ago. And, even though its been covered whistle to whistle on the ESPN networks, its still soccer. So its easy to go all day without finding out the score, then watching the games on DVR later at night when my sports junkie self needs a fix, but not enough to actually sit through a couple of innings of TV baseball.  And, its high stakes sports. Before you know it, I’m hooked to the action and ready to provide STRONG TAKES on the Knockout Round, beginning with this weekend’s quarterfinals.

France vs England

I am taken by this French squad. They are nothing like the douchtastic club of men representing Les Bleus a year ago in the 2010 World Cup. From the coach on down, that club was full of petulant sourpusses, easy to root against and gave the tournament a villian until they went home after group play. These French women give off such an opposite vibe that I am doing the unthinkable: Cheering for the French. They’re charismatic, play extremely well together and some have posed nude because its the only way they can get the snobby soccer fans in their country to pay attention to them. Ladies, you have my support, for whatever thats worth. It helps that they are talented, too. They gave Germany a good match in group stage despite resting a group of their best players for a large spell of the contest. They have six key players that starred for the Lyons club that won the women’s UEFA Champion League this last season. That group is highlighted byD  Sonia Bombpastor and  MF Louisa Necib, who have tremendous chemistry together as the French turn defense into offense. Marie-Laure Delie and Gaetane Thiney have become stars of the World Cup up front. Thiney is my new crush. I’m sure she’s tickled about the news. England is talented too, but I havent liked how the Three Lionesses have played so far in the event. Yes, they were impressive over Japan to win the group, but I dont know, I just dont get the feel this club can play the great sort of 90 minutes needed to advance in a Knockout Round of such a high end tournament. I think the French are ready to  break into the Big 3-s hold of the sport. They win today and dont be surprised if they beat the Brazil/US winner later in the week to set up a rematch with Germany, this time with their best lineup playing from start to finish. Today, they win 2-0 over an England team, that unlike themselves, does mirror their men’s club main characteristic of falling short of greatness.

Japan vs Germany

One game sure did change a lot for Japan. After two legs, there werent many teams playing better than the Japanese, and they looked like Final Four contenders. But a lazy 2-0 loss to England later, they fell to group runner up earning the honor of playing host and tournament favorite Germany in the quartefinals. This is the worst possible matchup for Japan. The smallest team in the tournament will be mincemeat on some of the German set pieces. How in the world are they going to mark somebody like Kersten Garekfrekes on corners and free kicks? If you can find a line on first goal scorer of the match, I’d pick her.  It hasnt been a vintage German performance during group play. Not only did they give up a World Cup goal for the first time in a decade, but in their last match they allowed 2 goals. GASP. They’ve seemingly benched superstar Birgit Prinz.  So, it’s been a rockier than expected Group Stage. Despite that, the Germans won all three games and sit atop the power ratings heading into the quarterfinals. The one team in group play that threw Germany off their game and made them look average at times was Nigeria. But, they did that by literally mugging the Germans all game and somehow avoiding a slew of yellow cards. Not only is Japan not really capable of pulling that same physical trick, even if they could I dont imagine the refs ignoring the situation again. Japan isnt devoid of hope. Homar Sawa is an elite, experienced international scorer with three goals so far in the tournament, Mana Iwabuchi gives them a super sub who injects enthusiasm and scoring chances when she goes into the game and Aya Miyama might have the best free kick leg remaining in the field. In fact, I see Japan getting an early goal somehow off the foot of Miyama as Japan has a long standing run off figuring out how to score goals off set pieces. Germany will have too much firepower in the end. Celia da Mbabi will outplay Sawa in the midfield and the German depth takes over the game in the second half en route to a 3-1 win. Garefrekes, Alexandre Popp and Fatmire Bajramaj notching the goals. Read more »

Copa America: A Must Win Three Weeks For Argentina Begins Tonight

July 1, 2011
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Just five short weeks ago,  Lionel Messi paced Barcelona to the highest honor in European club soccer notching a goal and delivering  a Messi-merizing performance over Manchester United in the UEFA Champions League Title match. Seven weeks from now another La Liga campaign begins as does Messi’s Barca squad’s attempt at defending all that hardware won a season ago. But, tonight, the Littlest Giant in Futbol is back in his homeland, trying to bring glory and honor to a desperate Argentina National Soccer program. And, most importantly, deliver a Copa America title, by winning the South American championship and oldest continental football tournament. Argentina’s quest begins tonight with their tournament opener against Boliva at La Plata’s Estadio Ciudad. They also will play Columbia and Costa Rica in Group Play. Despite its pedigree, La Albiceleste have been stuck in an International Rut. They haven’t been farther than the quarterfinals in the World Cup in over 20 years. When we last saw them they were being eviscerated MESIT OZIL’ED  by Germany in a 4-0 exit from last summer’s World Cup. Winning this tournament wouldn’t announce them as the next Spain, but doing so with a win over arch rival Brazil in the finals would be a worthy title. With the next World Cup actually in Brazil, there is a sense that this might be Argentina’s best chance in a while to both hoist a trophy and finally defeat Brazil in a big spot. The team is as talented as ever, they’re playing at home. Indeed, the appropriate question is, if not now, then when?

Argentina is the betting favorite, listed at sporstbook.com at +105, basically even odds. Brazil at +180 might as well be considered betting co-chalk. With their emerging young talent up front like Neymar and Ganso and the always sound defensive play of  Lucio, Thiago Silva and keeper Juilo Cesar, Brazil doesn’t need home pitch advantage to win a big game. No other team pays less than 10/1. We’re pointing towards a Brazil-Argentina final in three weeks, a match that would be one of the scheduling peaks of the calendar year. Other teams are going to try to derail that must-see finals. Uruguay finished better than both of them a year ago in the World Cup, have the best coach in the field, play with great defensive chemistry and have more than enough goal scorers to beat anybody in this field during a one-off. Chile was expected to be a gate crasher a year ago in South Africa, but maybe underachieved a little. They remain a talented, attacking bunch led by Alexis Sanchez, but need some good results to re-establish themselves an a true up and comer. Paraguay–what’s the slang for GRIT these days on the streets of Asuncion–made the final eight of the World Cup, played Spain about well as anybody in their elimination match and can 1-0 or  0-0 PK win their way to a surprise finals berth without it being much of a shock. Everybody else in this field might be cannon fodder for those five, although some obviously will make the knockout round. Had Costa Rica and Mexico sent their clubs from the recently played Gold Cup, then this field would be even more compelling. Could you imagine, Kevin, if Chicharito and Giovanni dos Santos was in the El Tri lineup for this event? As it stands, those clubs will be sending their versions of an Olympic team and probably not be much ready to wear as this plays out. Columbia’s core players had a lot of success in youth tournaments, so they warrant watching to see if they’re coming together enough to be a force in 2013 World Cup qualifying play. Group play to shed this 12-team field down to the eight teams for the knockout round is spread out over the next 13 days, so there will be plenty of time to talk about each of these individual teams as events merit.

The big storyline is that both of the two heavyweights will be playing their first legit competition since undergoing head coaching changes. Brazil opens later in the weekend in Mano Menez’s coaching debut since taking over from Dunga. But tonight the curtain is lifted on the Sergio Batista era leading the Argentinian nationals. Will he provide some stability in the wake of the often confusing and sideshow loving Diego Maradona? The knock on Maradona was that he never could figure out how to use the special, unique talents of Messi. Tonight we’ll get our first peak at their new style of play with Messi as the freelancing center of attack. Of course, dont mistake this as a one man show. Fourteen of the players on this roster played roles on European club league this season that qualified for the Champions League. They’re so talented that Carlos Tevez and Gonzalo Higuain arent expected to be in the starting lineup. Nor is next-in-line sensation Javier Pastore, whose transfer season price tag might end up a bigger summer story than his play here if that doesnt change.  Boliva, meanwhile, comes in with a team that is almost exclusively plucked from their homegrown league. It’s not going to be pretty tonight. La Verde will, literally, be Blown to Bolivian. Boliva is 20/1 just to win this game. Earning a draw is still somewhat of a oddsmaker longshot at 7/1. Want to make a quick $100 bucks and have $1,000 just laying around to risk. Then play the -1000 moneyline on an Argentina win. I dont see how you wont get a 10-percent return on your investment in just two hours time.  The Bolivians rarely get good results outside of their home turf. They didnt win a game in this event four years ago in Venezuela. They didnt win a road game during the Conmebol World Cup qualifying, racking up eight losses and just one mere draw, being outscored 24-4 in the process. And this year so far in friendlies they still dont have win with an 0-4-2 mark in six starts. Two of those three draws listed, however, were road matches at Brazil and Paraguay. So who knows about risking a ridiculous amount for a small pay out with those results screaming at you. A better, more normal approach might be betting a single unit on the Over 2.5 goals. I think we’ll see a lot of scoring, mostly by the blue and white, probably enough alone to go over this total.

The Pick: Argentina/Boliva Over 2.5 Goals, One Mesit Ozil Play…..The last time these clubs played a game of consequence against each other in this country, Argentina smoked Boliva 3-0. No reason to think a similar result wont occur tonight. The real prop bet ought to be Will Argentina cover this over all by themselves, yes or no?  I’d vote yes on that. Look for Messi to score a goal and at least two other Argentinians to find the back of the net as their Copa America quest gets off to a rousing start in La Plata tonight.