Posts Tagged ‘ Florida ’

Three to Watch: Night Games Edition

September 30, 2011
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Three to Watch is going under the lights this week for a peek at some of the KNIGHT JAMEZ! We have a great weekend of college football coming up and Jamie has you covered (pun?) for some of the early contests. You’ll notice the big Wisconsin-Nebraska tilt as a conspicuous omission here, but I’ll be posting an in-depth preview for that one in short order. I really like that Washington at Utah game in the Pac-12 as well, but I’m not sure you can catch that one on national TV. Utah is favored by 8 and these teams can really score (I’m taking the Huskies to cover). Let’s get to a few other gems.

Clemson at Virginia Tech, 6:00, ESPN2

Is a 6 PM start really a night game? I suppose most of it will take place after dinner, so what the hell, it’s a great match-up. Much like the Wisconsin-Nebraska game, this could be a preview of the conference championship game, as Clemson has already dispatched Florida State and Va Tech looks like the front-runner in the Coastal Division. Clemson will lean on QB Tajh Boyd, who has led the ACC with 13 TDs and 1,255 yards passing. Boyd’s favorite target this year has been freshman wideout Sammy Watkins who has six scores and averages over 15 yards per catch. Make your pick on Watkins over/under 122.5 rushing/receiving yards in this week’s Pick-4. I’m going under.

Coming off of a huge win against Florida State, it won’t be easy to go into Blacksburg and grab a win. In fact, the last time Clemson was riding such a hot start and played at Virginia Tech they came out behind 24 to 7 in 2006. Play on the edges of the line and defensive backfield will be key for the Hokies. Slowing down a passing attack always starts with pressure on the passer and defensive ends James Gayle and J.R. Collins can provide that pressure. On the back end, Jayron Hosley will probably be primarily responsible for slowing down Watkins, and also the reason I’m sticking with the under on Pick-4. On the other side of the ball, it will all come down to the Hokies’ sophomore QB Logan Thomas. If Thomas can navigate his way through the game without big mistakes, the Hokies will score in the 20’s and have a chance to win. Like always. This won’t be a blowout though and I like Clemson to cover the one touchdown spread.

Texas at Iowa State, 7:00 FX Read more »

Bowl Chronicles: New Year’s Day Edition

January 1, 2011
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Have you been enjoying bowl season so far? Plenty of storylines so far. After early chalk dominance, we got the promised underdog run the final couple days of the calendar year. The JCB, and hopefully you dear readers as well, benefited. The Bowl Chronicle record stands at 19-9, +9 Units. The last four days of 2010 will be remembered fondly. The underdogs run that we promise every bowl season has come through again with the pupsters. Since Tuesday, the underdogs are 10-3 ATS and after a 1-8 start, underdogs now stand even with the chalk this bowl season as 11 favorites have covered and 11 dogs have covered this postseason. Here’s hoping the dogs arent done barking.

 Today the action is Big 10 heavy with five conference teams going off the board. I brought up a handful of conference props in a post the other day. I saw these too late to plunk any action down, but I’m following them nevertheless, waving the Big 10 flag all the way. As far as total  bowl wins go, the Big 12 was -4.5 wins over the Big 10. That one is already a winner, thanks to the Big 10 going 2-0 in head to heads with the Big 12. Oh, and the overall Big 12 sucking this postseason. The other league listed on a total win head to head with the Big 10 was the big, bad, fast SEC. The SEC was -5.5 wins, but trail the Big 10 2-0 coming into today with the league on a 0-3 start. Actually, this prop is done as well. Even if the SEC sweeps the Big 10 today and win the rest of their bowl games while the Big 10 loses all of theirs, it would only net a 7-2 SEC advantage. Big 10 backers there can already go spend their money. With 60 total points in two games and six games left, the Big 10 is also on pace to go over the 206.5 number for total combined points that same book set.

The Big 10 has already paid off for a lot folks. So far in bowl season, the SEC and Big 12 have been overrated chalk, the Big 10 underrated underdogs. So what do we get on the first day of the year? Not one, not two, but four games with the Big 10 catching points against either the SEC or Big 12. Plus a fifth Big 10 team catching points in the Rose Bowl. And since its not a Pac-10 team with them in Pasadena, they might have a chance there. Did you resolve to be an even bigger Big 10 homer in 2011? If so, then this post is for you.

Capital One Bowl: Alabama Vs Michigan State, 1:00, ESPN. Lines, Alabama -10, O/U 52.5

I am surprised by how many people feel the Spartans dont have a chance in this game. I chuckle when I hear people point to their troubles in Iowa City as proof they’re not worthy of their 11-1 record, while somehow overlooking a similar looking shellacking they put on fellow Big 10 Champ Wisconsin. In the common foe department, both teams handled Penn State without much of a sweat, but the Spartans effort was on the road, in November, against a much more improved and feisty PSU team than Alabama faced in Week 2.  Oh, yeah, that’s right in the SEC vs the Big 10. Silly me. Its an automatic mismatch. Phfft. Actually think again. This is the 19th straight year the leagues have met in this bowl contest and its a dead heat 9-9 in the previous matches. Eight of the last 11 Capital One Citrus Bowls have been decided by a touchdown or less and the average margin of victory in all Big 10/SEC Citrus Bowl matches us a shade under 9 points per game. I dont need much convincing to take a stab with the Big 10 team catching double digits in this one, despite the disparate differences in the program’s brand names.

The Spartans underrated defensive line, anchored by Jerel Worthy, and their playmaking LBs of Jones and Gordon will relish going up against the 1-2 rushing punch of Ingram and Richardson. The Spartans might yield some yards, but they’re not going to be steamrolled. And they will spend more than their share of series standing up to the Tide, forcing punts. I worry about any team matching up with the hulking talent that is the Tide’s Julio Jones and their weaponry downfield. The Spartans will get burned. But they also will MAKE PLAYS in pass defense. In the mold of great secondaries during other peak times in MSU history, its a big play defense. All four starters can get picks and they’re among the national leaders in passes defended. Here;s how this is going to go when Alabama has the ball. The Tide will have a lot of good looking drives. But, the Spartans have stood tall the most all season when it matters the most. This is one of the more clutch red zone defenses in the country. The Spartans turned so many games in their favor because they stiffened up and thwarted scoring drives. Here’s a stat to keep in mind while this game plays out: 41 times the foe has driven into the MSU red zone, but they have nearly as many FG or less endings (20) to TD endings (21), Basically half the time, the other team doesnt get a touchdown when they’re in scoring range. Michigan fans know exactly what I’m talking about. MSU will cover this number because they will turn a couple 7-point drives into 3-point drives. If they turn those into 0-point drives, they’ll escape with the upset. Read more »

Three to Watch This Weekend

November 12, 2010
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Not going to lie, there aren’t a ton of good games going this weekend. Still, we can find three right? Right?

Utah at Notre Dame, 2:30 NBC- Not a blockbuster game by any means, but Notre Dame needs to win two of its last three to become bowl eligible in Brian Kelly’s first year. The Irish will be coming off a bye week following their back-to-back losses to Tulsa and Navy, while Utah will look to rebound from its first loss of the season last week against TCU. Tommy Reeswill get the start for ND, with Crist out for the season with blindness a hurt knee. Just heave it up to Michael Floyd there Tommy. For the Utes, QB Jordan Wynn needs to cut down on the mistakes (2 INTs vs TCU) and put the game on the running backs. Eddie Wide and Matt Asiata have combined for over 1,000 yards this season and pace Utah’s top ten scoring offense. Even if you chalk up next week’s Army game as a win for ND, the Irish will need to either beat USC or 14th ranked Utah. Notre Dame’s last win over a ranked opponent? September 9, 2006 against Penn State, before dropping their next 11 tries.

Virginia Tech at North Carolina, 3:30 ABC/ESPN- College Gameday will be in Columbus this week for Herbie’s annual homecoming (entertaining games be damned), but I recommend Va Tech and UNC as higher quality viewing. No need to watch Tressel politely dispose of PSU. The Hokies may have a chance to clinch their spot in the ACC Title Game depending on the Miami-GT result earlier in the day. If the Jackets can knock of the U, Va Tech can come one step closer to completing their redemptive season. The Hokies will be without RB and KR David Wilson this week due to mono. Guess that means they’ll need to lean on Tyrod Taylor who was just 15-25 for 137 yards with a TD and INT last week against Georgia Tech. In three career games against UNC Taylor has 3 INTs and no TDs. North Carolina has turned their season around similarly, winning six of seven after starting 0-2. QB TJ Yates had a bit of a big day last week against Florida State with 439 yards and three touchdowns while completing 24 of 35 passes. UNC may have to rely a little more on RB Johnny White though, as the Hokies rank 22nd in pass defense and 71st defending the rush. Plenty of exciting players in this match-up, plus a possible title game berth on the line for the Hokies.

South Carolina at Florida, 7:15 ESPN- Hey, speaking of title game implications…the winner of this one will lock up a spot in the SEC’s version. Typically SC’s sensational running back Marcus Lattimore would be the focus of the game, but I’m watching Florida’s quarterback situation. Last week Urban Meyer put in his freshman tight end Jordan Reed in at QB. Reed, a highly rated QB out of high school, threw for 120 yards and a score and rushed for another 84 and a TD on the ground. At 6’3″ 240, he draws obvious comparisons to the Holy One and should get his share of the snaps again this week, especially if John Brantley continues to struggle.  South Carolina will have plenty of obstacles if they want to make the program’s first appearance in the SEC Championship Game. Lattimore is recovering from a bruised knee, meaning extra pressure for Stephen Garcia through the air against a Gator defense that leads the country in interceptions with 17. Also, even with the inexperience under center for Florida, the Gamecocks have to be concerned about the Gators through the air against SC’s 109th rated pass defense. Oh yeah, and South Carolina has never won in The Swamp. Good luck Spurrier.

Three More to Watch This Weekend

October 8, 2010
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Go ahead and sleep in on Saturday morning, DVR College Gameday if that’s your thing, and coast through the early games, because there isn’t much going on early Saturday. Suffer through some bad Big Ten games if you want, but your main goal should be to clear the schedule for the primetime dates. Jamie Mac has already previewed the big 3:30 match-up between Michigan and Michigan State. Does Rich Rod have it turned around? Is Michigan State as good as the media believe? Will Denard turn MSU’s gatorade to wine and cause players to throw down with the cheerleaders and/or event staff? Head over to MGoBlog and find out.  On to the games.

Arkansas vs Texas A&M, ABC 3:30 ET- This renewed rivalry will play for the second straight year in the Jerry Dome, with Arkansas winning last year’s game 47-19. The Aggies will try to slow Ryan Mallett coming of his shaky performance against Alabama. Last year Mallett lit up A&M for four touchdowns and will try to get his Heisman campaign back on track with a similar showing. The bye week came at a good time for the Razorbacks after their upset bid fell short against Alabama. Texas A&M is coming off a tough loss themselves to Oklahoma State last week. Jerrod Johnson threw four picks for the second straight week as the Aggies blew a 14-point halftime lead. It doesn’t carry the importance of a conference game, but the winner puts itself in much better bowl position and will gain some needed momentum since both play ranked conference foes next week.

LSU at Florida, 7:30 ET CBS- Les Miles this season reminds me of watching a turtle on the highway that somehow manages not to get hit. At first, you’re kind of laughing that it’s having such luck, then you’re a little amazed, and finally you open the eyes wide put your hands on your head and stare in wonder. Will Florida finally knock LSU from the ranks of the unbeaten? The Gators will need to find their rhythm on offense if they want to take care of the Tigers. Jeff Demps was held to under 50 yards last week against Alabama and will have a tough time against LSU’s run defense that comes in as the best in the SEC.  The Tigers will need to improve on the offensive side as well, as things have been unorganized and as ineffective as you can be at 5-0. Miles will continue to rotate Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee at QB, which is neat since together they form the 112th most effective passing attack in the nation. If you like defense, this is your game.

Florida State at Miami, 8:00 ET ABC- If you like offense on the other hand…this is your huckelberry. Not only should there be plenty of scoring, it will most likely be close. Nine straight meetings between the two rivals have been within ten points, including last year’s 38-34 thrilling win for Miami. Jacory Harris hasn’t had the kind of season many expected, but he is still finding the end zone regularly. Four of Jacory’s thirteen completions last week went for touchdowns.  Three of those scores went to Leonard Hankerson, who has a sweet name. Florida State should be content to shut down the run and hope Harris makes enough mistakes for the Seminoles to capitalize behind senior QB Christian Ponder. The Noles held Virginia to 25 rushing yards last week and even held a good Oklahoma attack under 100 in FSU’s only loss.

Happy viewing.

Three More to Watch This Weekend

October 1, 2010
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Hopefully you were able to catch the first game of the week when Oklahoma State and Texas A&M played a great game in Stillwater. We’ve already done some previewing of Stanford and Oregon, as well as Michigan and Indiana.  How about three more games for your viewing pleasure?

Wisconsin at Michigan State, 3:30 ET ABC/ESPN Mirror-  This could be a huge swing game for either team, as both come in with perfect records, but less than perfect performances. The Badgers plowed through their usual weak non-conference slate, looking unimpressive in the lone challenge against Arizona State. Michigan State played an even weaker schedule and while the scores look dominant, watching those games was brutal. Mistakes, penalties, and an awful pass defense stood out early. Michigan State’s strength is its running game with freshman Le’Veon Bell looking like a future star. Sophomores Edwin Baker and Larry Caperdon’t give defenses a rest either. A normally strong Badger rush defense looked bad against ASU, giving up six ypc, so this could be worrisome for Wisconsin. Look for the Badgers to load up against the run and make a shaky-looking Kirk Cousins beat them. Offensively, Wisconsin’s run/pass mix should be able to move the ball on the Spartans. John Clayis the returning Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year and he could be the difference in the game. Iowa-Penn State might be prime time, but this is the game of the week in the Big Ten.

Texas vs. Oklahoma in Dallas, 3:30 ET ABC/ESPN Mirror- When it comes to ESPN’s relationship with ABC, your trade-off for Dancing with the Stars coverage on Sportscenter is the ABC/ESPN mirror on Saturdays. In the past, you wouldn’t be able to flip back and forth between these two games, but would be stuck with whichever one was closer to home. Not this year! Choose your most trusted, efficient remote captain–internal commercial clock is a plus–and get ready for two great games at once. The Longhorns own four of the last five wins in the Red River Shootout Rivalry, but are coming off an UNACCEPTABLE loss to UCLA in Austin. The game doesn’t seem to have the hype it’s demanded the past few years, but there is no doubt it will play a huge role in deciding the Big 12 once again. Since struggling in the opener, Oklahoma QB Landry Joneshas been on fire, throwing 7 TDs against 1 pick in the last three. If Sooners RB DeMarco Murray goes over 100, the Longhorns are in trouble. The Texas offense has been the victim of some tinkering in the off-season to go along with the loss of Colt McCoy. While Jones has been hot, Texas signal caller Garrett Gilbert has been anything but. McCoy’s replacement has 3 scores against 4 picks in the last two games. He will need to be better Saturday or the Texas defense will have a hell of a workload.

Florida at Alabama, 8:00 ET CBS- Wait, don’t let your remote control expert go anywhere! Actually, it might be time to switch over to a designated flipper depending on brewdoggers consumed early on. Florida-Bama comes on at the same time Stanford and Oregon will be doing battle on the other side of the country. This rematch of last year’s SEC Championship Game will set one team up with a great chance to get back. The big question going in is whether Florida’s offense under Jeff Brantley can find its form. The Gators come in ranked 78th in total offense, going up against a great Alabama D. The good news for Florida is that Jeff Demps should be good to go coming off of a foot injury. The Florida defense will have to win the day; a tall task against an Tide offense with the likes of Trent Richardson and Mark Ingramin the backfield. Bama seems to have perfected their run/pass mix that lets the two backs open things up for Greg McElroy to find Julio Jones. Florida’s best chance will be hoping that McElroy makes a couple mistakes. Not to count Florida out, but that doesn’t seem likely from a senior QB who has never lost a game for Alabama. You know all the stars for these teams already, how about a couple lesser-knowns who could make an impact? Florida redshirt freshman linebacker Jelani Jenkinswill need to play beyond his years and for Bama, they’ll need big plays from DE Marcell Dareus. One of these teams will snap a long regular season win streak, as Alabama carries a 28 gamer and Florida has 24 straight.

Happy Football Weekend!