Posts Tagged ‘ Degenerates Gamble On Baseball ’

Take Me Out To The Ballgame: Bookin’ Baseball Future Bets

April 5, 2010
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Last year, I broke new ground and placed my first ever future bets of any kind for a single season when I took some win totals for the 2009 baseball campaign. When I was tinkering with what amounted to the JustCoverBlog 0.5, I wrote a blog post about it. I would blog randomly throughout the summer on the ups and downs of the endeavor. That was part of the plan for the fledgling blog. Well, that aspect didnt carry over when the JCB debuted in wordpress in the summer. But, the picks did endure. Fortune shined on me all season, and I won all four. I dont really gamble on baseball. It’s not that fun. But after last year’s success, I feel the pull to put something down on some baseball futures to at least give me an active stake in the season. I dont really consider myself a fan of any baseball team, so this will also give me something to follow and root for until the 2010 football season becomes a reality. At times, we’ll be dressed up as blogs for these teams as we chronicle the progress of these investments. We know we’ll have fun tracking these. We hope we’re as lucky as last year. Let’s Play Ball!

COLORADO OVER 85 WINS

I keep hearing about how great Colorado is going to be. Some have said they have the deepest team in the National League. Its hype that I buy. They are young, talented and can beat you in many different ways. With playoff appearances in two out of the last three years, they know how to win. I think its a 90-win ballclub, and they wont need a major break through to get that done. Everybody seems to be picking them, both pundits and the gamblers. They are the chic pick this spring, but they still are not betting chalk to win the division. You can still get 2.25 to 1 on them at sportsbook, while the Dodgers remain the favorite per their board at 1.5 to 1. 

 I happen to agree with the Rockies love. And I’m excited to see them play. But, I feel they have a better shot at achieving at least 85 wins than they do winning the NL West. I feel this division could easily have a pair of 90-game winners. The Rockies, Dodgers and Giants would all be in my top-half of the NL if I were the sort to concoct power ratings. I’d put Arizona up there as well if you can guarantee me a healthy Brandon Webb who will bounce back as strongly as, for example, Chris Carpenter did a year ago. I do think the Rockies are the best of the NL West bunch, but so many things can happen to keep this team from winning this division. Unlike them getting beyond the 85-win mark, winning the division would be a franchise break through. I dont know if I want to bet with certainty that that will happen. But, this team wont languish near .500. They have too much talent. They’ll cruise by the 85 win mark before summer ends. But, the NL West race wont be over by then. They wont win any NL West bet I would make if they dont go over 85 wins, anyway. This Over 84.5 is the easier bet to win, so I’ll take it.

Besides, I want a reason to watch and root for the Rockies. I always had a fantasy baseball rule of always making sure to pick a Rockie and get in early on whoever is suddenly going to be getting a lot of at-bats in their lineup. I did so because its fun to have an invested reason in staying up late on any given night in the summer to pull for something good to happen with the always potent Rockie offense. I loved the thrill of seeing a 10-7 final score, knowing that a guy on my fantasy team probably had fingerprints all over one of those rallies. Over the years, I have had some fun runs with Todd Helton, Garret Atkinson, Brad Hawpe and Matt Holliday. In recent seasons, I have also seeked out their pitchers. Ubaldo Jimeniz anchored my club last year that adanced into my league’s Final Four. Well, I am officially retired from fantasy baseball. Or at least taking a one year break. I know I will miss the thrill of tuning into a Rockies game for those implications. So, I am doing the next best thing. I’m investing in their season. Given this is the best the franchise has ever looked, its the right timing. I think they pass this win mark before the first Sunday of the NFL season. I cant wait for 2010 Rockie baseball. I wont even let the fact that four Colorado pitchers begin the season on the DL  get me down today. But, I will point out its reasons like that that I feel this win investment is a safer one, even if it doesnt pay out as much, as any of them taking the NL West pennant. Read more »

Estimated Prophets Plays Day Baseball (UPDATED)

July 25, 2009
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(ED NOTE: UPDATED at 6:30 pm)

The Tigers are killing me. Jackson pitched well, but had one bad inning and gave up a couple of runs. The problem is the Tigers have not scored their first at bat and have been given us a clinic in hitting into double plays and squandering scoring chances ever since.

They’re down 3-2 with the White Sox batting in the top of the 8th.

Might as well throw out there who we’re on tonight:

Milwaukee -129 over Atlanta.  Brewers always worth a look at home, especially with their ace on the mound at a cheap price. I think they bounce back from last night and get the win tonight.

Houston -136 over NY Mets. The Mets are a mess and have one of the biggest money burners of the season. The Astros are just too hot to bet against right now.

Dodgers -168 over Marlins. Dodgers have been the best home team all season. We’re chasing a bit here. They lost last night at home, so we’re betting on them today that it wont happen twice in a row. If we loss, we’ll bet double on them tomorrow that it wont happen three times in a row. The whole point of this progessive chase is to eventually win a Unit when the best home team in baseball finally wins another game at home. Hopefully, it wont take a while. What can go wrong?

Those are the three tonight. Hopefully we have a Tigers comeback in the late innings.

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I struggled staying up through the final innings, but it was worth it plucking out a 2-1 record on those three west coast games I played last night. It evened the record at 6-6 for E.P. Read more »

Estimated Prophets Stays Up Late

July 24, 2009
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With one week to go in July, its showdown weekend in the National League. Ten teams are above .500 on the senior circuit and eight of them play each other in three-game sets beginning tonight.

St. Louis and new acquisition Matt Holliday take on the champion Phillies. The Giants are in Coors taking on the Rockies in a matchup of the top two teams in the Wild Card chase. Atlanta travels to Milwaukee and the Marlins are out west facing the Dodgers. Toss in a battle for first place between the Tigers and White Sox and the Twins playing the Angels in the American League, combined with the scuttlebut of the looming trade deadline, and an intriguing weekend of bases will surely ensue.

We’re staying up late tonight. We like the matchups and are going to the window. Here’s on who and why:

Giants +119 over the Rockies. I hate betting against the home team at Coors, but this has not been a real vintage Colorado team in Denver with a pedestrian 25-20 record. The Giants struggle on the road, but they have Matt Cain going tonight. The Giants are 14-5 in his starts, including wins in five of their last seven on the road. Cain has 15 starts where he has given up 2 earned runs or less, 12 with only one or less. Rockies could end up winning the series in the end, but they’ll be in a 1-0 hole after tonight.

Dodgers -150 over Marlins. We’re fading an ace. Hopefully that works better than backing them has for me. Dodgers have been the best home team all season. It’s not like they have some srcub pitching tonight in Kershaw, whose season has rivaled Johnson’s, his counterpart tonight. I like having the best home team in baseball at such a cheap number with one of the better hurlers on the mound.

Angels -150 over Twins. I’ll take Lackey tonight against a Twins team he has had a lot of recent success against. Sigh. Guess I will never learn since I am back on an Ace again.

We ended up going 4-5 last weekend in our foray into the world of baseball. Some of the money came back on Sunday, but I was nowhere near a computer to blog. But, for integrity’s sake, those games aren’t being included as we keep track. For now, I like the routine of making small bets on the weekend. It’s helping to scratch the itch thats become a bit more noticeable as football season approaches.

Mushing Aces

July 18, 2009
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Gambling and I aren’t dating again. But, we are sleeping with each other this weekend. We got a little caught up with the start of the second half of the baseball season, and we could not keep our hands off each other, I guess.

So far, the fireworks have not been there, with a 2-3 record so far. But, the weekend is not over and with two games in progress (White Sox over the O’s and Mets over the Braves) we could be back over .500 by dinnertime. Or, doing a walk of shame. 50/50

Whats revealing about sleeping with Gambling again is just how sharp my jinxing powers are, even after a lay off. Eddie Mush has nothing on me.

Some background: I only bet college and pro football and college basketball with any regularity. Every now and then I wade into the waters of professional basketball and hockey during the winter. I am, however, an avid player during those sports postseasons. Usually I will have won money during March Madness and with house money in the pocket, I have found fun betting series, futures and occassional games during the NBA and Stanley Cup playoffs.  During that time, I will also drop a few bets on baseball games because, well, they’re on the board. Remember, a gambler’s money knows no home, after all.

I did well this year with the Stanley Cup playoffs. Not so much with the NBA. I’m looking at you Cleveland!

A funny thing happened, though, as the postseason runs navigated through May. I got hot on the bases. I was beginning to think with the intense fantasy league I play in with my friends that I had somehow learned the league inside out. I was betting the entire West Coast card, passing out on my couch watching Extra Innings before two innings were in the books and waking up a couple hours later to a blank screen. But, I was also winning most of those games and pouring myself victory drinks before turning in officially for the night. I was a professional gambler.

Yeah, well those times never last. I went through a June Swoon that only the 1999 Cubs could be proud of. The sportsbook sent over their Asian cooler to watch games with me. I still was not going to gamble past the Finals, per my rule, but the finish line was in sight with a nice profit margin. I limited my plays, but put more cash on them, a strategy I probably should not have employed. Regardless, everything I touched burned up in front of me. It was brutal. Even a fantasy team in the middle of a five-week winning streak was not providing any solace. Read more »