Posts Tagged ‘ CUSA ’

Bubble News: League Tournaments, The Stakes Part I

March 8, 2011
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 Last night was a great night of hoops. Four mid-major champions were crowned and advanced straight into the NCAA Tournament. The most notable was Old Dominion out of the CAA, whose win over VCU kept a bid thief down and the bubble a little more open the rest of the week. Fun Fact: The CAA Tournament Champ is 10-2-2 ATS in the last 14 years in the NCAA First Round. We already cant wait to BOOK the Monarchs, regardless of foe next week. Wofford, a year after scaring the pants of Wisconsin, will return to the field after winning the Southern, and St. Peter’s, the fifth seed, clinched the MAAC bid and will be in the NCAAs for the first time in almost 20 years. Gonzaga beat St. Mary’s to win the WCC, but right now, I think the Gaels will still get an at-large bid, but if any bid thieves or bubble teams from the power leagues rise up this week, things could get dicey for the St. Mary’s. In fact, one such bid thief is on trial tonight when the host UW-Milwaukee tries to beat Butler tonight in the Horizon Finals. The Bulldogs are in regardless, but if the Panthers win tonight, this suddenly becomes a 2-bid league and somebody’s eventual at-large bid will be squeezed. Should be a fun night as we also award bids to the Sun Belt and Summit (GO GRIZZ!!) Champions.

But, we’re also starting the major conference league tournaments today. And, there’s plenty of bubble intrigue. We’ll break down the questions in multiple parts, and this post focues on the first three leagues to begin their sectionals: Big East, Conference USA and Atlantic-10. As always, the Bracket Matrix is a guide to pulse on how the bubble is shaping up. Enjoy the hoops!!

BIG EAST: HIGH END HOOPS, LITTLE BUBBLE DRAMA

Is this going to be a killer tournament, or what? The possible 8/9 game is Georgetown vs UConn. Compare that to the Big 10 and ACC where their 8/9 games are Minnesota/Northwestern and NC State/Miami and you can see just how much more juice the Big East sectional has compared to the rest. But, what it doesnt have is a whole bunch of bubble intrigue. Sure, the entire week in MSG will have seed implications up and down the bracket, but unlike past seasons where some of the teams seeded 7th or worse needed to tuck away a win or two to make the NCAA Tournament, the Big East prospective tournaments all seem secure. Marquette might be the one exception, but as SteveY pointed out yesterday, even with an opening round loss tonight to Providence, the Golden Eagles should still be dancing, although perhaps getting their start in one of the play-in games in Dayton next Tuesday. I dont know? I think they could fall out if they put up a one and done performance in this field. They only went 4-8 against the other projected Big East Tournament teams and two of those wins took place more than two months ago. Their best out of conference win is a victory over UW-Milwaukee. Otherwise, the Golden Eagles lost all four of their marquee non-league games, but did so by just a combined 12 points. Personally, I feel they are a tournament team regardless, and I can see them winning a game or two in any pod next weekend if they play their A-game. They are a fun team to watch: high scoring, great shooting and they share the ball as well as anybody.

Only hours away from the tip and it’s put up or shut up time for Marquette fans and critics. It’s going to be an uneasy five days in the aftermath of any loss tonight. Consider they would carry just an 18-14 record and ended the campaign on a three-game losing streak, with the last two losses to teams with losing records. You cant help but wonder if the Selection Committee is looking for a reason to cut at least one of these projected 11 Big East teams in the field. This would give them cause. And, if Baylor and Colorado streak to the Big 12 semis, Michigan does the same in the Big 10, UTEP wins the CUSA, UW-Milwaukee steals the Horizon auto bid and Alabama streaks to the SEC Championship Game, then what? Room would need to be made in the field, and I wouldnt want to be just four games above .500 with the last audition resulting in losses to Seton Hall and Providence. So, the only bubble drama in this field is if Marquette can avoid the bad loss tonight. If they cant, they will become a talking point all week especially if other teams emerge strong during their own league sectionals. Read more »

Championship Saturday: Picks, Part One

December 4, 2010
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Warning to everybody. It’s the last day of the season. The JCB is playing with house money, including an extra unit thanks to Fresno’s win last night over Illinois. It might be hard not to play every single game today. You have been warned. I’m sure we’ll find game we dont want to have any part of it, but dont be surprised if when its all said and done today, that we end up somehow on a side on close to every game. For now, here’s what the blog had for the first round of games at noon. Double warning, I guess. Props are included on the card! We’ll be back with more picks later.

Southern Methodist +9 over UCF  x  1……..Everyone knows about June Jones and his run and shoot offense. But how many bar bets would you win asking who the leading rusher in the CUSA is? It’s none other than one of Jones players, Zach Lines with 1,297 yards. I think his presence, the fact the UCF has to account for a 100-yard rusher, is really going to make the Knights good looking defense look vulnerable. The Knights are the best D statistically in the league, but they’ve been vulnerable in games down the stretch. They’ve had a lot of problem with vertical passing games. In comes SMU and their relentess aerial attack led by Kyle Padron, 13th in the nation in total offense with 28 touchdown passes. Except UCF cant overcompensate for his game because Line will gash them. And the Ponies wont hesitate using him to keep the pressue off their QB and passing game. He’s a bowling ball, downhill runner and the undersize front of the Knights are going to have problems with him. UCF has allowed 28.8 point per game against bowl eligible teams this year. They gave up more than 30 points against every bowling team from CUSA they played this year. I have no doubt the Mustangs can hang points on the board. The question is how much can they keep them off the board? Their defense is rather midling, but that puts them ahead of many high octane offenses that have tried to win this game in recent years. UCF will land plenty of haymakers, but I actually think SMU, with their active linebackers, can get enough stops to keep this game permanently in range for Padron, Line and the Mustang offense. He may be playing at home, UCF QB Jeffrey Godfrey is still a true freshmen, and I wonder if he wont make a mistake or two that, at the least, allows the big underdog to stick around.

Aldrick Robinson Over 88.5 receiving yards  x 1/2……we’re going to occupy ourselves a little more with this game by selecting a few props. Robinson leads SMU in receiving yards and is their big play guy. Folks who recall Jones day as offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons may be interested in knowing that Robinson fills the role that Andre Rison did for those teams. UCF has had issues keeping wraps on the league’s top receivers. Kevin Bolden and DeAndre Brown went for 18.75 and 22.0 yards per catch for Southern Miss against UCF, Patrick Edwards popped off for 162 for Houston and ECU’s Dwayne Harris hauled in 146 yards receiving. All these have taken place against the Knights since Halloween. I’ll take Robinson over any of them and not fear any skill or production loss. He has eight 100-yard games this season, including six times against Conference USA foes.  I expect another triple digit effort. This also comes back to the presence of Line. If he can be effective, then we feel even more confident about this prop as the Knights cant give up extra defenders to guard Robinson if Line is gashing them up the gut.

Ronnie Weaver Over 42.5 Rushing Yards  x 1/2……the Knights leading rusher. He’s gone over 50 yards in 10 of 12 games today. I think O’Leary will pound with him a bit just to try and keep the Mustangs and Padron off the field. I just think this kid is a good back and he can rip off a couple gashers, we’re going to on the verge of hitting this one. I just dont think it will take much, even if there are stretches where he’s not a factor. Besides, I have to something on the UCF to pull for.

Pitt +2  over Cincy x 1……I suppose their should be a fear here that Wanny’s bunch will quit and lay down, a la the Hawkeyes, for example, in their game with Minnesota last week. Or better put, not all there mentally to start. We’ll see. I think revenge from a year ago may serve as some motivation. And the fact that the Bearcats cant stop anybody on D, nor block any pass rush. Weather calls for snow and slop, which will hinder the UC offense. The Bearcats just have not had it against anybody of import this season. Its not 2008 or 2009 anymore. Pitt caps a disappointing closing run on a good note and nets the straight up win and, per the odds at least, the slight upset.

That’s all we have early. A single play on SMU in the CUSA championship game and half plays on a pair of props from that game along with Pitt over Cincy. That should keep us busy.

Conference Championship Games First Look: CUSA, SMU vs UCF

December 2, 2010
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It’s the same old story in the Conference USA Title Game. High octane offense from the West vs stingy defense from the East. What makes this year’s version different from the past is that for the first team the defensive minded team from the East–UCF Golden Knights–are significant chalk against the offensive show from the West–SMU Mustangs. Three years running, defense first sqauds from the East have won outright as an underdog against a highly touted offense from the West, twice as more than touchdown underdogs.

This year, however, its the defense that’s favored. The UCF Knights, ranked 15th in total defense and 18th in points allowed are 9-point chalk against the upstart SMU Mustangs and their 20th ranked passing offense. For me, this poses a problem. I’ve been siding with the defensive dogs in this matchup in recent years. Do I stick with the defensive team and lay almost double digits, an act that simply isnt within character? Or, do I remain an underdog whore, despite the fact, that the Eastern teams have crunched pyrotechnic offenses from the West the last three years in this game? Decisions, decisions, decisions.

In 2010, I have very little experience playing either team. I bet against UCF as 8-point chalk when they played East Carolina in Week 9, and lost. The next week, however, is a weeknight game against Houston, the Knights were -2 and I played on them and won. As for SMU, I bet against them in a pick ‘em game against Navy in Week 7 and won with the Middies. Between these two teams, I’ve only played their games a combined three times this year. On one hand, I’m not as experienced with these teams as I should be. But, on the other hand, I dont come into this game with any preconceived biases from winning or losing a lot on them.

The Knights are led on offense by true freshmen quarterback Jeffrey Godfrey. The 3-star recruit from Miami Central was tabbed by Rivals as the 8th best dual threat QB in this incoming freshmen class. Despite high end offers from Georgia, Michigan, FSU and Tennessee, he signed with UCF. He’s been their starting QB virtually since Day One.  He’s completed 67.4 percent of his passes, his yards per attempt is a shade under 10 and he’s playing some of his best football down the stretch with 2 touchdown passes in each of his last five games, with just two total picks during that run. He’s accounted for 21 touchdowns, including 9 on the ground. He has three receivers that have cuaght at least 24 passes with a ypc of at least 14.7. Godfrey has powered the rushing attack with 526 yards on the ground, but the Knights primary ball carrier is junior taliback Ronnie Weaver, who has 855 yards on a 4.8 ypc with 11 touchdowns.

But, its the defense that has carried the Knights this year. They have some lofty team defense rankings everywhere you look: 18th in total D, 11th in rushing D, 18th in scoring D and 31st in passining efficiency D. All are also the best numbers in the Conference USA. On one hand the Knights lean on experience with six senior starters, all multi-year starters. But, they’ve sprinkled in some youth as well. They start a true freshmen and redshirt freshmen at both tackle spots in their 4-3 defense and they have a pair of true sophomores in the secondary.  Leading the charge is an active trio of linebackers Derrick Hallman, Lawrence Young and Josh Liman, who are 1-3-4 on the team in tackles. All are flirting right now with a double digit TFL seasons and have combined for 26.5 stop behind the line of scrimmage. DE Bruce Miller also has added 9/5 TFLs and 5 sacks. Darius Nall leads the team with 7.5 sacks as a situational pass rusher coming off the bench.

There will be a lot of pressure on the Knights secondary in this one going up against the 20th ranked passing offense of SMU and their QB Kyle Padron. The Mustang signal caller cracked the lineup in midseason a year ago and led SMU to six wins in seven starts, including their first bowl win in years in the Hawaii Bowl over Nevada. This year, he’s taken his game to another level. He’s 13th in the country in total offense and has tossed 28 touchdown to just 10 picks. He’s thrown multiple scores in all but two games this season and five times he’s tossed three or touchdowns in a game. What’s remarkable about his season is the Ponies lost their most dangerous target from a year ago when Emmanuel Sanders was drafted by the PIttsburgh Steelers. Guys like Aldrick Robinson, with 7 100-yard receiving games–six in league play–and Cole Beasley, who leads the team with 79 catches, have stepped up big this season. Read more »

Preseason Bowl Chronicles: Sun Belt Dynasty Returns To New Orleans Bowl

July 22, 2009
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Projecting the New Orleans Bowl gives us an opportunity to do something we’ve been chomping at the bit all offseason to do: Break down the Sun Belt Conference race.

The Sun Belt winner gets a bid here against against a Conference USA foe. And, for the first time in these bowl projections, we gat a chance to make a call on a champion.

For my money, the nod out of the Sun Belt has to go Troy. They are the premeir program in the league and have racked up three straight 6-1 Sun Belt seasons earning no worse than a share of the title each time.

Offensively, its going to hard for Sun Belt teams to stop them. Eight starters return after scoring in excess of 32 points per game two years running. Among that crowd includes Quarterback Levi Brown, who emerged from a muddled competition in midseason to throw 15 touchdowns and just three INTs en route to winning SBC Newcomer of the year; Dujuan Harris, a 1,200-yard tailback who was first team all SBC; Jerrel Jerrigan, a first team all SBC at WR last year and three starters back on the offensive line, two of whom earned Second Team All SBC last year. The offense could also see a potent weapon develop in redshirt freshmen Josh Jarboe, one of the best WRs in the 2008 recruiting class, who transferred to Troy after a You Tube rapping incident got him tossed out of Oklahoma.

Troy exceeded 30 points in every SBC game last year and in 12 of their last 14 league games. Look for Troy to put up big numbers again all season in conference games.

Defensively, some retooling will be needed with just five returning starters, but all five made the first or second team all league teams last year. With bookend DEs Brandon Lang and Cameron Sheffield, they have the best pass rush in the league. With Boris Leee and Bear Woods, they have a pair of 100-tackle a season linebackers. With Jorrick Calvin, they arguably have the best cornerback in the lead. For a program thats allowed just 19.4, 15.1 and 16.7 points per game in league play in each of the last three campaigns, that ought to be enough to remain a stingy outfit in conference showdowns.

The Trojans primary challenge will come from Florida Atlantic, the only other team outside of Troy to have winning conference records in each of the last three seasons. FAU has three-year starter Rusty Smith, who regressed a spell from his sophomore year, running the offense and with seven other starters joining him, they could rival Troy in explosivness. Unlike Troy, they are completely rebuilding their defense and need to replace their top six tacklers, their entire linebacking crew and top sack and swipe artists. Conventional wisdom says the Sun Belt will be decided during the November 21 clash between Troy and FAU, but will the Owls defensive rebuild fast enough to even allow that matchup to be winner take all? That remains to be seen.

Even if f it does, I’ll still take Troy to win on their field anyday with the Trojans being 36-5 at home this decade. Read more »

Preseason Bowl Chronicles: St Petersburg Bowl Hosts Sunshine State Rivalry

July 21, 2009
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Have you ever wondered who had the better middle-of-the-pack also rans, the Big East or Conference USA? Well, that’s what we have the St. Petersburg Bowl for as reps from those leagues will hook up. With those kind of stakes, it’s a near lock that the bowl, in only its second year, will develop into a fixture for the Most Wonderful TIme of the Year. If organizers could only get those ruffians at the WLA to stop calling it the Leningrad Bowl, then a January date is surely in its future. Book it.

Both of these leagues will need to go six deep to get qualifiers here, but I dont think that will be a problem. Each conference has had six bowl eligible teams for three years running and had this bowl and this tie-in both existed the whole time, all of those teams would have played an extra game.

Initially, I planned on calling UCONN for this game, because I think they might have the worst record of the eventual Big East bowlers. But, upon further reviewing, we’re selecting the USF Bulls to play the UCF Golden Knights.

Obviously, practical reasons exist for these selections. With a questionable economy, the movers and shakers of the bowl world will do just enough manipulation to keep teams close to home as possible. For the St Petersburg Bowl, its a perfect time to get together these in state rivals for a local showdown. It will likely boost attendance and buzz, both important factors for a bowl that’s just 2-years-old.

Many folks probably have higher expectations for USF, but I dont.  For starters, they have never lost less than three Big East games in any season since they joined the league and went 2-5 in confernece play last year. While they should breeze through their first three games of the season, I find it difficult seeing them doing any better than alternating wins and losses once league play begins, especially since out of conference grudge matches against Florida State and Miami Florida are sprinkled in once autumn arrives. If they dont improve their 2-5 league mark or get scalps of the Noles or Canes, they might not win enough to become bowl eligible.

Also: Matt Grothe remains their quarterback. For some reason, many in the MSM love this kid’s game. I go the other way. I think he’s terrible and his inconsistent play has really held the program back the last couple of years. I need to confer with a linguist, but I believe Grothe was a word the Ancient Incas used to mean Interception Machine. I dont know, maybe something gets lost in translation. Read more »