Posts Tagged ‘ Book It ’

Parlay Those Underdogs

October 7, 2010
By

which jame this week?

This has been a terrible season.  I have been screaming FART BUTTS from the mountain tops every Sunday.  Not going to lie, I’d almost quit if some bet I made a long time ago didn’t just somehow payoff.  I have no idea what it was.  Maybe Tigers wins O/U?  No clue, but I got an extra $45 in my account.  Thanks me?   Anyway, this week is difficult.  Lots of tight games, most of which I seem to like the underdog in.  Because of my awful luck so far this year, I think I’m going to join these underdogs for this weekends set of parlays (at least for 1 card.)  As Bill Dickenear used to say, “if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em.”  I’ll follow that up with a parlay full of abuse, which is how I’ve felt betting.

UNDERDAWGZ:

Colorado +11.5 (52) @ #22 Missouri (4-0): First of all, when did Missouri get ranked? They came out of nowhere!  Both of these teams are pretty bad and Missouri is playing their 5th game at home in a row.  How they got a schedule like that, I don’t know.  The 11.5 spread is what I like.  Colorado runs the ball at a good clip while Mizzou isn’t the greatest at stopping the run.  Both teams love to air it out and are terrible at defending the pass with each well over 300 yards allowed in the air.  This will be a close one the whole way though.  Mizzou will probably win, but I see Colorado covering.  Colorado +11.5 (Colorado 21, Mizzou 30)

Tennessee(2-3) +10.5 (48) @ Georgia (1-4): Georgia is 1-4 after a close loss to Colorado, it’s clazy.  Tennessee was one cheating play away from beating #12 LSU last week but both teams ended up losing by 2. Tennessee may be 2-3 ATS this year, but Georgia is 1-4.  Both teams are extremely similar in their lackluster ways.  They both score 25 ppg while giving up between 21-24.  The 10 point spread must be due to the Georgia venue and their level of ANGAR.  I see it staying tight to the end.  Just how they like it.  Tennessee +10.5 (Tenn 21, Georgia 27)

#21 Florida State (4-1) +6 (48.5)  @ #14 Miami (3-1): I don’t see what the big hub bub is about this Miami team.  Personally, I think they sewk.  Jacory Harris has thrown 9 INT’s in his last 3 games.  FSU’s QB, Christian Ponder has not thrown any in the last 3.  FSU has a better offensive team, they score more and put up much more yards than Miami.  It’s hard to understand how Miami has been able to win 3 games with a overrated QB at the helm.  With FSU getting 25 sacks in the last 5 games, look for Harris to throw more picks, leading his team to a L at home.  FSU +6 (FSU 31, Miami 14) Read more »

Take Me Out To The Ballgame: Bookin’ Baseball Future Bets

April 5, 2010
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Last year, I broke new ground and placed my first ever future bets of any kind for a single season when I took some win totals for the 2009 baseball campaign. When I was tinkering with what amounted to the JustCoverBlog 0.5, I wrote a blog post about it. I would blog randomly throughout the summer on the ups and downs of the endeavor. That was part of the plan for the fledgling blog. Well, that aspect didnt carry over when the JCB debuted in wordpress in the summer. But, the picks did endure. Fortune shined on me all season, and I won all four. I dont really gamble on baseball. It’s not that fun. But after last year’s success, I feel the pull to put something down on some baseball futures to at least give me an active stake in the season. I dont really consider myself a fan of any baseball team, so this will also give me something to follow and root for until the 2010 football season becomes a reality. At times, we’ll be dressed up as blogs for these teams as we chronicle the progress of these investments. We know we’ll have fun tracking these. We hope we’re as lucky as last year. Let’s Play Ball!

COLORADO OVER 85 WINS

I keep hearing about how great Colorado is going to be. Some have said they have the deepest team in the National League. Its hype that I buy. They are young, talented and can beat you in many different ways. With playoff appearances in two out of the last three years, they know how to win. I think its a 90-win ballclub, and they wont need a major break through to get that done. Everybody seems to be picking them, both pundits and the gamblers. They are the chic pick this spring, but they still are not betting chalk to win the division. You can still get 2.25 to 1 on them at sportsbook, while the Dodgers remain the favorite per their board at 1.5 to 1. 

 I happen to agree with the Rockies love. And I’m excited to see them play. But, I feel they have a better shot at achieving at least 85 wins than they do winning the NL West. I feel this division could easily have a pair of 90-game winners. The Rockies, Dodgers and Giants would all be in my top-half of the NL if I were the sort to concoct power ratings. I’d put Arizona up there as well if you can guarantee me a healthy Brandon Webb who will bounce back as strongly as, for example, Chris Carpenter did a year ago. I do think the Rockies are the best of the NL West bunch, but so many things can happen to keep this team from winning this division. Unlike them getting beyond the 85-win mark, winning the division would be a franchise break through. I dont know if I want to bet with certainty that that will happen. But, this team wont languish near .500. They have too much talent. They’ll cruise by the 85 win mark before summer ends. But, the NL West race wont be over by then. They wont win any NL West bet I would make if they dont go over 85 wins, anyway. This Over 84.5 is the easier bet to win, so I’ll take it.

Besides, I want a reason to watch and root for the Rockies. I always had a fantasy baseball rule of always making sure to pick a Rockie and get in early on whoever is suddenly going to be getting a lot of at-bats in their lineup. I did so because its fun to have an invested reason in staying up late on any given night in the summer to pull for something good to happen with the always potent Rockie offense. I loved the thrill of seeing a 10-7 final score, knowing that a guy on my fantasy team probably had fingerprints all over one of those rallies. Over the years, I have had some fun runs with Todd Helton, Garret Atkinson, Brad Hawpe and Matt Holliday. In recent seasons, I have also seeked out their pitchers. Ubaldo Jimeniz anchored my club last year that adanced into my league’s Final Four. Well, I am officially retired from fantasy baseball. Or at least taking a one year break. I know I will miss the thrill of tuning into a Rockies game for those implications. So, I am doing the next best thing. I’m investing in their season. Given this is the best the franchise has ever looked, its the right timing. I think they pass this win mark before the first Sunday of the NFL season. I cant wait for 2010 Rockie baseball. I wont even let the fact that four Colorado pitchers begin the season on the DL  get me down today. But, I will point out its reasons like that that I feel this win investment is a safer one, even if it doesnt pay out as much, as any of them taking the NL West pennant. Read more »

Opening Night Prediction$ And Pick$

September 3, 2009
By

It’s time to put some money where thy mouth is. So, here are some predictions and picks for tonight’s game that I am sure will make me look foolish by tomorrow morning:

*****Indiana will look awesome. Obvioulsy, their foe isnt much of a measuring stick, but they will throttle the EKU Colonels and hang a 40-spot on the new, improved scoreboard. Darius Willis will break out with 100 total yards. Does it mean anything? Probably not, but the momentum will be enough to carry IU past  pair of MAC foes (Western aand Akron) the next few weeks and have them at 3-0 heading into Ann Arbor at the end of the month. However, dont take this to mean I endorse laying the 20 points with the Hoosiers. That would be bold, indeed.

***** Tonight’s quarterback play will be electric. How much so? I would put up the combined stats of Levi Brown, Russell Wilson, JP Masoli and Kellen Moore against any other quartet combination you can pluck together for the rest of the weekend. Pick any four and the gentlemen’s bet is on. Shoot, I’ll add BGSU’s Sheehan to the list and we can play 5-on-5. All of these cats can throw and run. Look for them to stuff the stat sheet to the tune of over 1,30o passing yards and at least a dozen total touchdowns scored off their arm or by their legs. They all will put on a show. I cant wait to watch them all play tonight.

*****Nothing will be settled in the MAC/Sun Belt challenge. Ball State will ease by North Texas. Troy will notch a harder-than-expected road win at BG. I guess we’ll have to wait for that Toledo/Florida International game next month to settle the score between these two leagues.

And, now, to put some money on the table:

North Carolina State -4 (-120) over South Carolina. The line has moved back down to 4.5, and I bought a half point off for a little extra juice. In Russell Wilson I Trust. Who would you trust in this game, Wilson or SC QB Stephen Garcia? Wilson won for me a lot last year, and I feel a little obliged to see if the wave remains cresting. This is like college. You spent the entire semester before hooking up with a certain chick. When you return to school after summer break, you cant help but give her a call to see if the sparks are still there. Here’s hoping the reprise with Wilson tonight turns out better than the one with Carly Fernandez did. Read more »

Book It Breaks Seal, Places First Bet Of Season

July 16, 2009
By

 I wont lie.

Despite the overwhelming evidence that Super Bowl losers are a good bet to lose more games the following year, I am uneasy about expecting that trend to continue with the 2009 Cardinals. I laid out strong numbers last month making the case for another historic,  hungover fall from grace for the Super Bowl loser. With the Cardinals notching nine wins a year ago, the oddsmakers have set Arizona’s O/U total for regular season wins at 8.5. To go Under that total, all Arizona needs to do is lose at least one more game this year than last, an ignoble achievement all but one of the last 15 Super Bowl runners-up have managed.

Normally, I would dive in with that kind of history of my side. With the Cardinals, however, I am wading toe first into water. Here’s three reasons why:

1.) The NFC West. None of the other three teams in the dvision had a winning record last year with two coming in with no more than four. The second place team has had six losing seasons in a row. Arizona owns a 16-8 mark against these guys over the last four seasons. They could easily bank more than half the wins needed to equal last season’s win mark in divisional play alone. I expect the Seahawks and 49ers to be improved, but they also have a lot of question marks. We’ll have to keep a close eye on their camps to see if they’re ready to compete with the Cards. If so, maybe I’ll start thinking about going at least neck deep in the water.

2.) I fear taking Unders. I am always incomfortable taking Unders. Its like rooting for failure. And, if a flurry of points are scored early, you spend the rest of the game begging for failure and not having any fun on the ride. Anyway, here’s my qualm with this Under: You would expect a hot Super Bowl runner up to come back the following year with a double digit O/U total for regular season wins. The Cards check in at 8.5. While some may say its a tell tale sign that even the experts in the desert expect the Cards to have a mediocre fall out, I automatically am concerned by such a low-looking total. All the Cards need to do is capture last January’s magic for three weeks or so this season, and the Under will be toast.

3.) The Cards have an easy final lap. Their final four games of the season look dough boy soft and ready made for a strong closing kick.  Arizona closes at San Francisco and at Detroit before wrapping up on a two-game homestand against St. Louis and Green Bay. Those teams went a combined 15-49 in 2008. Even if the Cards plod along all season, the specter of a winning streak looms at the end of the year. I can see a 6-6 Arizona team closing 3-1 against that bunch to come into the barn at 9-7. You could also see them easily missing the playoffs in that scenario, which would be in the spirit of the Super Bowl hangover, but still bust the under bet of 8.5 wins. Read more »

Book It Breaks Seal, Places First Bet Of Season

July 16, 2009
By

 I wont lie.

Despite the overwhelming evidence that Super Bowl losers are a good bet to lose more games the following year, I am uneasy about expecting that trend to continue with the 2009 Cardinals. I laid out strong numbers last month making the case for another historic,  hungover fall from grace for the Super Bowl loser. With the Cardinals notching nine wins a year ago, the oddsmakers have set Arizona’s O/U total for regular season wins at 8.5. To go Under that total, all Arizona needs to do is lose at least one more game this year than last, an ignoble achievement all but one of the last 15 Super Bowl runners-up have managed.

Normally, I would dive in with that kind of history of my side. With the Cardinals, however, I am wading toe first into water. Here’s three reasons why:

1.) The NFC West. None of the other three teams in the dvision had a winning record last year with two coming in with no more than four. The second place team has had six losing seasons in a row. Arizona owns a 16-8 mark against these guys over the last four seasons. They could easily bank more than half the wins needed to equal last season’s win mark in divisional play alone. I expect the Seahawks and 49ers to be improved, but they also have a lot of question marks. We’ll have to keep a close eye on their camps to see if they’re ready to compete with the Cards. If so, maybe I’ll start thinking about going at least neck deep in the water.

2.) I fear taking Unders. I am always incomfortable taking Unders. Its like rooting for failure. And, if a flurry of points are scored early, you spend the rest of the game begging for failure and not having any fun on the ride. Anyway, here’s my qualm with this Under: You would expect a hot Super Bowl runner up to come back the following year with a double digit O/U total for regular season wins. The Cards check in at 8.5. While some may say its a tell tale sign that even the experts in the desert expect the Cards to have a mediocre fall out, I automatically am concerned by such a low-looking total. All the Cards need to do is capture last January’s magic for three weeks or so this season, and the Under will be toast.

3.) The Cards have an easy final lap. Their final four games of the season look dough boy soft and ready made for a strong closing kick.  Arizona closes at San Francisco and at Detroit before wrapping up on a two-game homestand against St. Louis and Green Bay. Those teams went a combined 15-49 in 2008. Even if the Cards plod along all season, the specter of a winning streak looms at the end of the year. I can see a 6-6 Arizona team closing 3-1 against that bunch to come into the barn at 9-7. You could also see them easily missing the playoffs in that scenario, which would be in the spirit of the Super Bowl hangover, but still bust the under bet of 8.5 wins. Read more »