Just Cover

We’re closing in on the final selections. Whose sneaking into this field? A handful of bids remain up for grabs. Looking at the Bracket Matrix,  I’d say the spots in the consensus currently held by Mississippi St, Washington and Seton Hall might as well be held by nobody. Those three teams are in the mix for those spots, but you can make as good a case probably for 2-3 other teams, perhaps midmajors like Drexel or Iona. Regardless, those three teams arent automatically in any mock bracket I would put together. The spots held by Xavier, USF and maybe even BYU could be discussed, but if I were filling out a mock bracket right now I’d keep all three. So today promises to be an interesting day of hoops to say the least. There’s 16 games today. And just about every game means something to the bubble, the top seed lines and the eventual look of the final bracket. We have six championship games in one-bid leagues. We have bid thieves running around in five different leagues. We have 14 of KenPom’s top-20 playing.

BREAKING NEWS: Memphis is killing Marshall. That would eliminate one of the bid thieves. But give the Herd credit. After being down 20 or so, they are putting up a huge fight to cover the final +12 number. Now thats March drama too, you know.

MORE BREAKING NEWS: Memphis is back up by more than 20. Marshall’s spirited effort to cover the spread looks dead.

Back to your regular Bubble programming. Here are the game shaping the final spots in the field.

ACC Semifinal, North Carolina vs NC State……..Here are some numbers to keep in mind about NC State: 19, 20, 17, 31, 14, 17, 19. What are those? Just some of the litany of obscene margins of defeat for the Pack against rival UNC. Under Roy Williams, the Heels always crush the Pack. The Pack have lost 12 straight to the Heels with an average margin of defeat at 15.7 points per game. Few of the games in this run have been close. In fact, only two times have the margins been within single digits, both 9-point losses. Its been over five years since the Pack have taken down the Heels, but they might need to today to keep their NCAA hopes alive. We’re still waiting for the Bracket Matrix to update today. but as of late last night, the Pack still werent part of the consensus. Instead they’re stuck in the fifth from last cut spot on just 19 of 105 mock selections. We dont know yet if the win over UVA yesterday launched them into the field or not. If it didnt, well they have a chance for one of the biggest wins of the season by anyone, a result which certainly would have them dancing. If the UVA win did put them in the field as of today, well I would suggest not being run off the floor like just about every other game with the Heels the last six years. The Heels are 10-point chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win.. If bookies are already earmarking winnings for UNC backers by halftime, I’d worry about the Pack’s bid,  assuming its already earned. There might be too many bid thieves on the prowl, trendy midmajor resumes and other power conference bubble teams for NC State’s final statement to be a non-competitive one in this game. If the Pack cant win, I’d suggest at least covering the spread if you want to stay in good position. Continue reading →

More on the current state of the bubble later, but for now a look at the Conference USA Championship Game which stars Bid Thief Marshall. We’ve already had a couple of games this March with bid thieves in league championship games and they were fantastic, dramatic contests with Tennessee St and Illinois St giving heavy chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. Murray St and Creighton fits in their respective sectionals. Had either of those clubs won, the bubble talk would have been altered significantly. Bubble teams breathed a sigh of relief last weekend with those results, but they better have their pom-poms going for this one as Marshall is one of a handful of bid thieves still on the loose. Like the burglars in the OVC and MVC, the Herd are big underdogs. Actually, they’re more significant dogs, catching double digits from high powered Memphis, which has the benefit of home court today. Memphis is used to encountering bid thieves in this game. This was a one bid league throughout the Final Four contending stage during the final legs of the Calipari tenure and each year they woodshedded a potential bid thief in the conference championship game. Can Pastner’s budding power handle business with the same coolness and dominance? Bubble team fans hope so.

Elsewhere on the game:

One of the most accurate bracketologists out there gives us a look at a field with three CUSA teams should Marshall win. The Memphis Commercial Appeal highlights the battle of backcourts as critical to this.  Local scribe says Tigers can be great if they finish strong. Meanwhile, breakfast and basketball suit Marshall just fine. Borzello’s Poppin Bubbles says the bubble got some clarity last night, but there’s plenty yet undecided. Marshal, according to him, would be a legit at-large team with a win today, but its irrelevant since a victory nets them an automatic bid anyway. Andy Katz calls this CUSA CG one of the 5 key games of the day. And, now, without further fanfare, our own thoughts on this game.

CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME, MARSHALL VS MEMPHIS. LINES, MEMPHIS -10.5

Marshall comes in here one of the more decorated teams in CUSA Tournament history. They’ve won the event’s highest scoring game. Came out victorious in its first ever triple OT game. Authored one of the more legendary individual scoring effort in sectional history. And the tournament’s alltime leading rebounder is a Marshall Thundering Herd. Of course the rub with all of that is all those accolades have been achieved during this year’s CUSA Tournament. So their epic history in this event really is only 48 hours old. But if they can extend that run another two hours or so, they’ll win the league’s automatic bid, advance to the NCAAs and make life on the edge of the bubble even more stormy. It would also make this conference a 3-bid league as Memphis and Southern Miss both have their place in the field secured. I guess you could make a case for Southern Miss’ exclusion, perhaps even a straight up exchange of a bid should Marshall win, but I wont. The Golden Eagles are a Bracket Matrix 10-seed, on 95 of 105 ballots, seeded as highly as a #7 in some brackets, as low as a #12 on others. I’d be surprised if Memphis and Southern Miss arent both in the field, so a Marshall win this afternoon would make this a 3-bid league. Continue reading →