Michigan State at Oregon: A September Rose Bowl

Oregon is a program that always attracts a lot of chalk and a lot of chalk players. They’ve had seven straight winning seasons against the point spread and, most of the time, especially at home, the Ducks are laying upwards of at least 20 points on the Vegas line. A year ago, the smallest number they faced in Autzen Stadium was a -23.5 line against UCLA, ranked in the top-15 at the time, and the Ducks cruised to a win and cover 42-14.  In fact, this is the smallest number they’ve faced at home since being installed as only 6.5-point chalk against Stanford in 2010, a game they won easily 52-31. Since then other “small” lines at home include -14.5 vs ASU (2011), -18.5 vs USC (2011) and -16.5 vs Stanford (-16.5), although it should be pointed out the Ducks lost outright in those last two games. The Ducks are in a couple of spots that their longtime backers like seeing them in: after a win and after scoring at least 40 points. Coming off a win, The Ducks are 13-4 ATS. Coming off a 40 points or more game, the Ducks are 12-4 ATS. What about after games in which they win AND score more than

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Breaking Down The Props: Green Bay-Seattle

I’ve heard a lot of people today remark excitedly that FOOTBALL IS BACK TONIGHT. I assume by ‘being back’ they mean after a two day hiatus since the opening weekend of the college game ended on Monday night. I agree, it’s been way too long since we’ve had football. I’ve barely survived these last two work days without it. The real exciting return is our ‘Breaking Down The Props’ feature, which we try to do for every Thursday NFL game. Tonight we have a juicy matchup between the Packers and Seahawks. Two great teams to begin what will be another thrilling NFL season. Here’s a look at the player props being offered right now at sportsbook.com……. Aaron Rodgers, Over/Under 24 completions; 266.5 passing yards; 38.5 longest completion; 1.5 TD passes; Will he throw a pick, Yes, -175, No, +140….That TD prop is interesting. Rodgers has tossed more two or more scores in 32 of his last 43 games. The Seahawks pass defense, however, allowed just 2 or more scores through the air in only 4 of the 19 games they played in 2013. Cue all the ‘something has got to give’ clichés. Although maybe save some of those puns for the interception prop. Rodgers tossed

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BIG TEN REVIEW, WEEK ONE: WEST DIVISION EDITION

Yesterday, I did a review of Wisconsin’s late loss to LSU. Let’s take a look at how the rest of the B1G West Division fared during Week One. There wont be an East Division Week One Review. Half those teams are staring directly at a showdown in Week Two and we’ll hone in on those teams and matchups later in the week. IOWA HAWKEYES LAST WEEK: BEAT NORTHERN IOWA, 31-23 THIS WEEK: VS. BALL STATE. LINE, IOWA -17 The Hawkeyes eased by Northern Iowa, but showed some vulnerabilities in the process. Northern Iowa’s passing numbers jump right off the page when perusing the box score from Iowa’s closer-than-expected 31-23 win over the Panthers in the opener. The Panthers ended with 10.1 yards per pass attempt with the Hawkeyes allowing 3 plays of more than 50 yards and another 4 of more than 20 yards. All told, they permitted 12 passing plays of over 10 yards. That’s on just 17 completions. I don’t know what’s at play here. Iowa has some nice returning talent in the secondary and a pass rush to go with it. Maybe it was just a bunch of first-game-of-the-season mistakes. It’s too bad the Ball State team that comes to Iowa City this weekend

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