Bubble News: Resetting The Early February Bubble

February 8, 2012
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Lets reset the bubble before we get too deep into the week and in advance of a special night in the college hoops world. We’ll be back later to rap about the big games and make some picks. But, for now, let’s take a look at the ever developing NCAA Tournament Bubble.  As always the handy Bracket Matrix will serve as our guide.

CRASHING THE GATES

That would be the Miami Hurricanes, which went from a paltry 5 mock bracket votes prior to the weekend to a total of 24 during Monday’s straw vote. The subsequent update of the consensus Bracket Matrix saw the Canes parlay that surge in support all the way to a spot in the field on the 12-line. Thats a mighty big leap, but the Canes have won more than twice as many games as they have lost, have a winning league mark in a power conference and,  just 24 hours before the latest vote, they pulled off what typically is one of the marquee wins of any college basketball season by winning at Cameron Indoor against Duke. I cant lie. I didnt watch a second of this game. Frankly, I was unaware of the proceedings completely as this game got lost in the Super Bowl Shuffle on Sunday. But the Canes suddenly require us all to take notice. The bubble is so fluid, so soft and so weak this early in the process that all it takes is one major win and you’re the bracketologists’ best friend. Miami proves that adage, but are they any good? They have four double digit scorers paced by a solid backcourt of Durand Scott and Malcolm Grant an offense that nearly cracks the top-10 percent nationally per KenPom’s efficiency rankings. They’re a decent to good three point shooting team and rarely turn the ball over. They go 10 deep and can play with a lot of size with the 6/10 Kenny Kadji and 6/11 Reggie Johnson ranking 3rd and 4rth in minutes played. They’ve played a challenging schedule for Miami, but have lost pretty much all their possible resume games. Before their upset at Duke, they were 0-6 against teams currently in the Bracket Matrix. We’ll see if they have any staying power. They host Virginia Tech on Thursday in a game they must win as their next two after that are at Florida State and back home vs North Carolina. If they can win two out of their next three, look for their bracket support to solidify. But they’re sitting at 5-3 in the ACC at the league season’s midpoint. If they finish in the barn with a winning conference mark, look for the Canes to become a major talking point come conference tournament week.

WELCOME BACK, PITT

I think we need to remove some of the dirt we shoveled over the Pitt grave during the month of January. And, in all liklihood, shift some of that soil to a freshly minted plot being dug for UConn, but thats a whole different post. Getting back to Pitt, the Panthers arent really making a dent in any brackets yet, although they do appear on 3 out of the 58 mocks tallied at the Bracket Matrix, as a 13th seed in two of them and a 12th seed in the other. Why give the Panthers some love? Lets let one of those bracketologists explain. From Big Underdog, who places Pitt on the 13-seed line:

Pittsburgh is probably the toughest team in the country to seed. They started out 0-7 in the Big East, but then star point guard Tray Woodall returned from injury and Pitt has beat WVU & Georgetown in the past week. With Woodall in the lineup the Panthers are 9-2 and a tournament team.

The Panthers are riding a 4-game winning streak right now, half way to making up for an 8-game slide that had their bid chances DOA in January. The current winning ways include resume wins over Georgetown and West Virginia. Getting Woddall back in the lineup has indeed been the difference. They still have work to do just to get to level par in Big East (they stand at 4-7), but they have the team, heart and schedule to be able to do it. I fully expect this rally to continue, and the Panthers to gobble up an at large bid before its all said and done. At the very least, when they play UConn in the regular season finale, they’ll have a better chance at a bid than the Huskies. The Huskies remain on everyone’s bracket and the Matrix has them as an 8-seed. But those updates took place before the Huskies decided to try a play another game without any offense Monday night and were worked over by Louisville. Their trip to Syracuse on Saturday looks like a guaranteed loss. If they look as badly then as they did last night, it’s going to be interesting to see how much support flees their corner. BracketWag thinks the Huskies can still cobble together a bid if they finish 8-10 in Big East play. They might, but not if they go one-and-done in the Big East Tournament. Regardless, thats a position I wouldnt want my team in come Selection Sunday. Read more »

Bubble News: Can Texas Bag A Winnable Road Game?

February 6, 2012
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Football is finished. Congrats to the Giants, anyone who had an Eli For MVP prop bet and, of course, those who had Giants Safety as the game’s first score. I assume folks who had that latter ticket are taking off of work today. Now, let Basketball take over. In fact, with the unseasonably warm winter we’ve been having, it already feels like March outside. We have a month to go in the college regular season, so bubble talk will take over most of the water cooler discussions around this here blog. I’ll reset the general landscape later in the wake of another weekend of hoops in the books, but first let’s quickly set the table for tonight’s storyline.

Like a week ago, the Texas Longhorns hog all the bubble stage on a Monday night. On a light night for college hoops they face something akin to a must win. The Horns went 1-1 this past week. They’re pretty much running in place right now, which isnt that great considering teams all around them are pulling in marquee wins on a daily basis this time of year. They began the week losing at home to Missouri, failing again against a league power and dropping to 0-4 against the Big 12′s power trio of Missou, Baylor and Kansas.  It was another close game, but it was also another loss as Texas dropped to 0-7 in games decided by 6 points or less. They beat last place Texas Tech in Austin on Saturday. Within the mock bracketology crowd, it might be safe to say their support, slim as it was, waned a bit after those results. A week ago, they were on 19 ballots. Heading into the weekend, that support had fallen to just 14 mock ballots and they were the fourth from last team cut from the comprehensive Bracket Matrix. I doubt a win over the hapless Red Raiders will net a surge in support as the mock crowds updates during the course of the day to account for the weekend.  With five weeks until Selection Sunday, the Horns are on the outside looking in, and their 13-year NCAA Tournament streak is in serious jeopardy.

When they go into College Station tonight for their Big Monday match with the rival Aggies, the Longhorns arent playing with House money. They dont need just resume wins, but they need wins of any kind. If they cant beat any of the league’s super powers, then they need to make up for the fact by gobbling up as many winnable road games, like tonight, as possible. They’re two games below .500 in Big 12 play at 4-6. They need to get to .500 in league play at the end of the regular season. Tonight is a major swing game in that pursuit. They have to go on the road tonight and put away a vulnerable, struggling A/M outfit. If they dont, it would hang a bad loss on the Horns resume and drop them three below the level mark in league play.

Here’s a rundown of the Horns slate the rest of the way after tonight: KSU, at Oklahoma, at Okie State, Baylor, at Texas Tech, Oklahoma, at Kansas.

Only seven games remain after tonight. The math isnt difficult. Win tonight and the goal of .500 in league play is more than attainable. Lose tonight, and that goal becomes a struggle the rest of the way. It would require upsetting the type of team they havent proven they can beat yet. Or pefection against the rest of the slate. I think the Horns can make the field with a .500 league mark, even if they dont win a game against the Missou-KU-Baylor trio. I dont think they can go winless against that crew and finish sub .500 in league play and still make the NCAAs. Frankly, they cant finish sub .500 in Big 12 play period.

The result tonight will let us know what kind of candidacy the Horns have. A win means they can slowly and steadily take care of business the rest of the way and get a bid in the end. A loss means they need to tear it up the final weeks and win at least five out of the last seven  to make a legit case. We said it last week, and the song remains the same, unless the Horns do catch fire down the stretch, and, especially if they lose tonight, they might need to knock off one of those Big 12 power brokers in the league tournament in order to crash the field. Read more »