Making Phil Steele Work For You

August 31, 2009
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Say you’re an obsessive college football neckbeard who buys Phil Steele’s magazine in June. Hey a wait a minute, thats me! Ok, lets say you’re also the type of fan who looks to put a little money on some of these games. Whoa, again, thats me.

Alright, so how do you go about condenscing all the information and theories Steele weaves together and mine enough winners to net a profit? What’s the point of rushing to the bookstore the day the “most accurate preseason magazine the last 10 years” hits hte stands if you cant use it to win money?

One thing I do is focus on his most improved teams. Typically this is a list of 20 or so teams that he thinks will make a significant, important leap in the standings. According to Steele, virtually all of the teams that has made list since he’s been doing it have equalled or improved their record from the last season. Most striking is that 136 teams on his MIT lists failed to have a winning season the previous season, yet 84 of them (just a shade shy of two out of every three) notched bowl eligibility. With that kind of nose for surprise and off the radar teams, there’s got to be plenty of ways to use that information to your advantage.

One would be to take a look at season win totals and bet the Over on teams from Steele’s list. That strategy looks good on paper, but it has some flaws. A lot of these teams are non-BCS clubs and it’s hard to find places with win totals on those teams. So, you effectively eliminate half his list as possible profit turners.

The other problem arises with teams on his list like UCLA and Michigan. The Bruins won four games last year, but their win total mark was set at 6.5 The step required for Michigan to go over is wider. After a 3-win season, Michigan O/U mark is set at 7. However, there is plenty of room for both these schools to get checked in the win column for Steele’s MIT list, but still lose any Over bet wagered.

Instead, I like to keep this list handy at all times (mostly, so I dont forget who is on it) and bet on these teams when they are catching points. In the last three years, underdogs on this list have gone 223-189-11 with three straight winning records. Those numbers in sequence dont look all that sexy, but this adds up to 55 percent winners. If you’re betting $100 a game and win 55 out of 100 bets, you will be clearing $500 in profit. Thats not too shabby.

With those numbers, you can pretty much go ahead and bet these teams on the blind every time they appear on the board, add them to your weekly card and over the long haul of the season, they will add to whatever profit you have already been otherwise making. I’m also confident that the previous sample size mixed with ongoing evidence from the 2009 season will reveal plays with a higher historical success rate than 55 percent that will evolve into something akin to a best play. So we’ll keep digging into these numbers and update accordingly. Read more »

Estimated Prophets Take Favorite Dogs For A Walk

August 3, 2009
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The second weekend of the college football season offers up some of the better rivalries in the land, some early season league showdowns and one heavyweight fight in Columbus that will have poll ramifactions all season long. It also has my two favorite underdog series on the board. And when determing in early August who to back during this weekend of football, there is no better place than with those games.

CLEMSON +4 AT GEORGIA TECH, 9/10 (THURS), 7:30, ESPN

According to the media, this game pits two teams projected to finish second place in their respective ACC divisions. With CJ Spiller and Jonathon Dwyer, the game stars the top two players in the pundits preseason poll for league player-of-the-year. Its an early season shakedown of the pecking order in the standings and the chase for conference honors.

A game with Spiller and Dwyer in the tailback spotlight is worth the price of admission. Spiller has been a factor back in the ACC from the moment he arrived on campus. As the featured back for the first time ever this season expect a career year. Dwyer, meanwhile, has become one of the most explosive players in recent Tech history. He is the perfect weapon for Coach Paul Johnson’s tricky option football and gives him the home run threat his effective, if not undermanned, Naval Academy teams lacked.

So what is the right side in a game featuring the league’s two best offensive players?

If you pay attention to history, you should play the underdog. While it would be great to breakdown such an early ACC clash of contenders by the match-up, my guess on the rivalry will lean entirely on the history books here. And why not? After all the puppy in this series is 18–6 ATS the last quarter century, 17-3 in that last 20 games. The Yellowjackets are the favorite this season by 4, but Tech has covered just one of nine in this series when laying chalk.

Let’s review just how gold the puppy has been in this matchup. Two years ago, Tech held the powerful Tiger offense, averaging 33 points per game, to just 3 en route to an upset win. In 2005, the Jackets scored just nine points, but still covered the +2.5 in a 10-9 loss. In 2004, Tech scored 14 points in the final five minutes of the game to get the cover and upset win in Clemson. In 2000 and 2001 the programs exchanged upset wins as double digit dogs in Instant Classic type of games. Do you get the picture yet? Read more »