We’re going to pick up the daily posting again after taking most of January off to recharge and recalibrate our minds from obsessive college football fandom to obsessive college basketball and bubble tracking. We’ve been trying to catch as much hoops as possible lately and now its time to start commenting on it like any ESPN expert would. In LOUD VOICES AND CAPS while pretending we know it all. Hell, I was born for this.

I’m not clear on what our format is going to be. Expect a couple Bubble centric posts a week in addition to general hoop columns and a strategic game preview or two. And, there is also Chitownblue lurking in the JCB Strategic Engagement And Creative Room, where he’ll continue to pump out NBA and Big 10 focused basketball pieces. Once he’s done ridding our kitchen of mayonaisse. By the time we figure out a format, it will March. At that point, there is no format. Just chaos–in a good way–and a Gatlin Gun barrage of posting as we go from league tournaments to the Big One.

Bottomline? Thanks for sticking with us during our ‘sabbatical’ of sorts. Enjoy the rest of the hoops season and if you’ve got an idea or thought for us, dont hesitate to hit us up on the JCB Twitter feed or drop us a line at Jamie@JustCoverBlog.com. With that out of the way, lets talk hoops:

 Is Syracuse the best team in the country Big East?

Are we sure Syracuse is hands down the best team in the Big East, let alone the country? I’m not. Not because I think the Orange are overrated, but I feel its because Georgetown seems to be so underrated right now. In a one-off for the Big East title, I think this is a toss-up. The Hoyas methodically throttled a struggling UConn team last night and after a series of disappointing Marches, look to be a factor next month in both the Big East and NCAA Tournaments. They play active defense, holding foes to 43.5 EFG%, 14th best in the land, and have KenPom’s 10th most efficient defense. Three point shooting is closed when you’re playing the Hoyas. They force steals on the perimeter and block a fair share of shots. In Jason Clark and Hollis Thompson, they have two versatile and good shooting scorers. They go 9-deep, bringing in a crop of four freshmen off the bench, highlighted by Otto Porter, perhaps the next, great Big East star. When this group of freshmen are shooting the ball well, this is a darn near impossible team to beat. They have a lot of effective size, get really good guard play and most importantly are oozing with talent. Everybody that sees legit minutes was at least a 4-star recruit per Rivals. If only they can overcome recent March demons. But, we’re still in February and the Hoyas stand two games behind the Orange. Their one and only regular season meeting of the season is next Wednesday in the Carrier Dome. KenPom only gives the Hoyas a 22-percent chance of winning, calling instead for a 7-point loss. I like their chances better than the tempo free guru. If you give me +7, for example, I am buying. On the same night, Duke/UNC and Kansas/Baylor face each other, but this vintage Big East rivalry is the main game I want to watch. I feel the Hoyas are better. Hopefully we’ll get a rematch next month at Madison Square Garden in the Big East Tournament.

Murray State Eventual Tournament Seed: Over/Under 4.5 Read more »

If Texas fails to defend home court tonight against Missouri, it would be the Horns fifth loss in six tries, drop them to 3-6 in conference play and put making a 13th straight NCAA tournament in jeopardy. If they lose, then how over Rick Barnes would Longhorn fans be then? As it stands,  that NCAA streak is already up in the air, even before the 4rth-ranked Tigers arrive into Austin.  The only bracketologist ESPN has ever heard of Joe Lunardi had Texas as the fifth from last team cut from his field today.

Out in the real world of the Internet, where more bracketologists live, the mass mock bracket crowd isnt lining up for the Horns either. In the Bracket Matrix, updated right before the weekend which was after Texas’ win over Iowa State, but before the Baylor loss Saturday, the Horns are fourth from last cut from the consensus field, but more troubling were on just 19 of 52 mock brackets. In the smaller straw poll sample size of voters who updated between the Horns win last Tuesday and the latest Matrix update, the Horns did have the support of 5 of 9 bracketogists. Hey, thats better than half. The base of support has to begin somewhere. Of course, how do those mocks feel now in the wake of the Baylor loss? And how will all them feel should the Horns get wiped off the floor by the powerful Tigers these evening? Failure to reel in a marquee scalp–something the Horns resume truly lacks unless we’re counting Temple and Iowa State these days–will be a turnoff and teams like Colorado State, Minnesota, Notre Dame and even Oklahoma and Iowa State in their own league will have passed them on the pecking order when February starts.

Texas is a weird team to figure. KenPom.com loves this team. The Horns are ranked 20th in his overal ratings, equipped with a top-30 efficient offense and defense. They’re projected to win all but one of their remaining games–including tonight when they’re given a slim 51-percent chance of coming out on top 73-72. However, the RPI measurement isnt as impressed. Texas checks in a 69th in their rankings,  just behind Bucknell and Ohio and right ahead of South Dakota State. They are just 2-7 against teams ranked higher than them in the RPI. The discconect might be the fact the Horns are 0-6 in game decided by 6 points or less. The two things they dont do well per KenPom’s tempo free stats burying them. They’re the worst defensive rebounding team in the Big 12, allowing foes to grab 36-percent of their misses. Thats an astonishingly bad 276th worst in the land. They also cant guard without putting you on the free throw line. Their defensive free throw rate is 43.3%, 292nd nationally. They’re giving up 24.62 FT attempts in conference play, and in their losses this year its 30.87 FTAs per game.  They 276th nationally in fouls comitted. Those issues could be factors again this evening against a Missouri team thats the best free throw shooting team in the conference and also armed Ricardo Ratliffe, the Big 12′s 2nd leading offensive rebounder.

Will it haunt them in another swing and miss at a resume win? I dont know, I’m not here to predict this game. No, really, I’m not. I’m here to obsessively track the tournament bubble, and this contest is a big barometer for the Horns eventual chances. Yes, the slate eases up a bit in upcoming weeks. But if the Horns cant win tonight, you have to wonder if they can do much better than break even the rest of the way. Speaking of that, lets take a look: Texas Tech, At A/M, KSU, at OU, at Okie St, Baylor, at Texas Tech, OU, at Kansas. If they lose tonight, do they have the chops to do better than 5-4? You could see them shooting out on a 3-game winning streak after tonight. The pair with the Sooners and matchup issues with Romero Osby and Andrew Fitzgerald on the defensive glass loom large. Baylor and at Kansas would look like sure losses. A loss tonight followed by a 5-4 close would make them 18-13, 8-10 in league play. I think its going to be hard to crack the bracket with that resume. However, a 5-4 close with a win tonight would put them at .500 against a true round robin in one of the toughest leagues in the land. That might be enough when the regular season ends. The line is thin on the bubble’s edge and tonight’s game for Texas is a huge swing on that track. Get tonight’s resume win over Missouri  and they might be able to cruise in just take care of business mode to a bid. A loss and they’ll have to hustle the rest of the way to break even in Big 12 play and their pursuit of an NCAA bid might not be successul until they knock off one of the power teams–KU, Missouri or Baylor–in the Big 12 quarterfinals in five weeks.