IS TEMPLE THE REAL DEAL?

Yes, they are. Did you know that since joining the league, the Owls have the fourth best conference record. They’ve never had a losing season in MAC play. After a 7-1 mark a year ago, they welcome 16 starters back including nine from an offense that scored 29.2 points per game, improving by almost a touchdown per game each year since the start of the Al Golden era in 2006. Get Bernard Pierce on your college football fantasy team now. He’s going to score at least 20 touchdowns and flirt with 2,000 total yards. All five starters return on the offensive line, including the league’s most dominant rught side with RT Darious Morris and RG John Palumbo, both of whom earned  first team all-league honors a year ago.  On defense, nobody else in the league can match the front seven havoc the Owls can bring with Tackle Muhamed Wilkerson, End Adrian Robinson and MLB Elijiah Joseph. Those three, combined with Jacquawn Jarrett at safety give the Owls four returning first team all-MAC defenders sprinkled through their lineup. They also have the league’s best return game. The league is chalk full of teams who have the potential to be good and sound. But Temple has the potential to be great. They’re the only team in the league that  we can book as no worse than 6-2. Folks, meet your MAC favorites. About their only weakness is their inability to kick a field goal from beyond 40 yards. Otherwise, they have it all.

WILL THE END OF AN ERA JINX STRIKE MOUNT PLEASANT?

I just dont know how often the Chips will be loose this fall at Central Michigan. Year One without Dan LeFeveour should be one with zero expectations, frankly. Recent history in the MAC portends to bad things when replacing a longtime, franchise quarterback. The End of an Era jinx. Miami and Toledo have barely been competitive in league play since the departures of Roethlisberger and Gradkowski.  Bowling Green suffered a fall in the immediate two years after Josh Harris’s tenure despite having a seemingly capable replacement ready to go. Akron became a good MAC team during Charlie Frye’s upperclassmen years, including a MAC title in 2005 during his final season. They havent won more than three leagues games in a season since. We saw Buffalo and Ball State crater to losing records a year ago during their first campaign in years without Drew Wiley and Nate Davis.   Here’s the deal with the MAC. It has a large, balanced middle class. All the teams are about the same. Week in, week out you’re playing basically even teams. Having a guy like LeFevour, the Tim Tebow of the MAC since 2006,  gives you a chip no other team can think of matching. It separates you in this field more so than it would it just about every other conference in the land. CMU will return to that middle ground this year and its hard not seeing several losses as teams finally get their licks into them. For that matter, it’s hard to project WMU and BGSU into great things either with the Broncos needing to replace Tim Hiller and the Falcons holding audtions for Tyler Sheehan, the schools #2 career passer, replacement.  These teams are hardly left in shambles, but it’s going to be tough for them to muster the winning consistency needed to put up enough league wins to guarantee a bowl spot.

WHO WILL BREAK A BOWL DROUGHT?

Every year it seems the MAC delivers a formerly woebegone program into the postseason. In 2004, Northern Illinois qualified for their first bowl in 21 years.  In 2005, it was Akron, making its first ever postseason appearance. Western Michigan broke a 20-year bowl draught in 2006. Ball State did the same in 2007. The last two seasons have seen Buffalo and then Temple, longtime college football laughingstocks, play into a 13th game. Who will that be this year? I say Kent State. The Flashes havent had a winning season since logging a 6-5 mark in 2001. They havent gone bowling since a 1972 date in the Tangerine Bowl. They went a non-descript  5-7 a year ago. But, a few things emerged in their favor during the season that might set them up for a postseason berth this year. On offense, the discovered their QB of the future in Sophomore Spencer Keith. He threw 14 TD passes as a true freshmen. Most important, the Flashes were 5-2 in his starts, 0-5 when somebody else started. They were a pretty good MAC team with Keith at the helm. You could probably say the Flashes would have done no worse than reach bowl eligibility last year had he started every game. They liekly would have finished 6-6, except Keith missed the finale, a dismal 9-6 loss to Buffalo.  With their top rushers, pass catchers and four starters back on the OL, this offense could take a leap in Keith’s second year on campus. Defensively, there’s a lot to be excited about. They have 7 starters and their top six tacklers back from a year ago, including three starters in the secondary, their top sack artist from a year ago and, perhaps, the biggest individual force on defense in the league in LB Cobrani Mixon, who racked up 108 tackles, 3 sacks, 7.5 TFLs and 7 PBUs a year ago. He is the leading candidate for Defensive POY in the conference. This D made major improvements a year ago, decreasing their points allowed by nine points and cashing in 15 more sacks than the previous year. Another round of improvement and this could become a dominant unit in the league. The Flashes also have the best punter in the league. With winnable home games out of conference against Murray State and Army, the flashes just need to squeak out a 5-3 MAC record (they went 4-4 a year ago) and they’ll have seven wins and probably a bowl bid by the time November ends.

WHO WILL WIN THE WEST?

Temple is the clear cut to take the East Division and the entire conference as a whole, IMHE. But what about the west? It’s been the dominion of Central Michigan the last four years, save for one season from Ball State and the great Nate Davis. Now that LeFevour has departed from CMU, expect a free-for-all in the chase for the West crown. You could probably make a decent case for five of the six teams: sorry EMU, we still think you and Ronald Jonathon English are CAWsome, however. The inimitable Phil Steele has managed to tag Western Michigan as the favorites here. I cant do that, however. They werent that great a year ago, but now they’re replacing a multi-year starter at QB. Sounds like more inconsistency to me. Nobody screams out as the obvious choice, so I am going with the most reliable team in this bunch, one that’s had a winning leeague mark in 9 of the last 10 years: the Northern Illinois Huskies.  The only time NIU had a losing season in league play was the disastrous 2007 campaign. They were -17 in TO margin that year, but in the four years prior and two years since, the program is +32. Can you say outlier? The bottomline is this team has been 5-3 or better in MAC play every year, but for that one, since 2000. And, 5-3 might be more than enough to pull this division out. This isnt just a default pick, however. In each of coach Jerry Kill’s first two years, the Huskies have improved their points scored by more than 4 points a game. With seven starters back including a QB with 18 career starts in Chandler Harnish, tailback Chad Spann, who scored 20 touchdowns en route to first-team, all-league honors and a pair of solid MAC tackles up fromt, no reason to think the offense wont be even more effective in Year 3. On defense, a year ago they had just 3 starters returning, but still allowed a respectable 21.6 points per game. They’ll have eight starters back this go around and should come closer to the stingier outfit in Kill’s first season that allowed just 18 per game.  They’ll need a win in the finale at Eastern Michigan to clinch the division. Not a bad final hurdle to clear.

ALRIGHT, WHAT ARE THE JCB OFFICIAL BOWL PROJECTIONS?

Temple. Book it. That’s a lock. They will be in a bowl game. Seriously, everything else is up for grabs as far os the other two guaranteed bowl spots for the league goes. Even the pick of NIU to play in the MAC Title Game doesnt necessarily mean they are a pick for a bowl. They play road games at Iowa State, Minnesota and Illinois in September. Surely the Huskies are capable of winning a game in that stretch, but they’re more likely to loss all three. If they go 5-3, win the division, but lose to Temple–or anybody in the MAC finals–that nets them a 6-7 record. They wont go bowling if that happens. Make no mistake, this is a legit possibility.

But we’re going to stick with them. They might do better than 5-3 and assure a bowl bid. Or beat one of those less than stellar BCS teams on their slate. So, we’re going with Temple, Northern Illinois and Kent State to secure the three guaranteed spots. If more bowl spots free up as other leagues dont qualify enough, then the MAC will get a couple more teams into the postseason. This has happened several years running, so there’s no reason to not expect it this year. The pecking order after the above three will be, Ohio U, Toledo and Bowling Green.

But its not a totally lost summer for the Sounders. They’re alive and kicking in the pursuit of another US Open Cup title with a semifinal date next month against Chivas. They also have their debut in the CONCACAF Champions League tonight, with the first leg of a qualifying playoff against Matapin of El Salvador this evening south of the border. The second leg is next week, with the winner advancing into a spot in Group Play this fall. Earlier in the month, Sounder fans pondered flipping priorities and just cash in on the regular seasons to throw their energies into the tournaments instead. It’s hard to blame them for that sentiment. Take the US Open Cup. While they are an assortment of necessary results away from qualifying for the MLS playoffs this year, they are just two wins away from defending their Open Cup title. Is that important? Absolutely as it gives them an automatic spot in next year’s Champion’s League. As for the  current Champions League, their path is as tough as it gets.  After the LA Galaxy fell into a black hole last night, the MLS could use a little boost out of Seattle. If they can somehow topple Metapan, then Sounder fans will get treated to the excitement of group play as opposed to just playing out the string of a seemingly hopeless MLS season. To that end, tonight and next Wednesday against the El Salvadorians as well as the Open Cup date with Chivas on September 1 are arguably more important that whatever is on their MLS docket the rest of the summer.

However its worth noting that a lot has changed in the last month. While it might not be reflective in the standings, the Sounders are, uh, a more sound team to end July than they were at the beginning of the month. Injuries and a lack of consistent goal scoring have been a huge problem all season long for Seattle. Not only have the Sounders never once started the same first X1 unit that brought them glory a year ago, but they’ve shuffled 26 different people into the starting lineup this season.  Nate Jaqua, who tallied 7 goals and 9 assists a year ago has missed most of the year. Midfield Osvaldo Alonso has missed almost three months with an aggravated hamstring pull.  Michael Fucito and Brad Evans have missed serious time. As for those have played throughout, Freddie Ljungberg and Roger Leveseque, expected to pick up the offensive slack, hadn’t scored a goal between them through the start of July. Ljungberg has all but whined his way out of favor with Seattle and hasnt been playing recently as the team tries to transfer him.

Other than that situation, things have finally been coming together for the Sounders this month. They’re starting to get healthier. Alonso, perhaps the best ball winner on the team, is almost in top form and should play a lot tonight. Jaqua wasnt even cleared to play soccer this season until late June, and they’ve slowly worked him back into game shape. He was strong enough form to net a pair of goals against LA in an US Open Quarterfinal game earlier this month.  Levesque, though, finally tallied a goal when he headed in the game winning goal against DC United two weeks in the 89th minute. They’ve also added some additions in recent weeks. Midfielder Michael Seamon, a rookie from Villanova, has been playing all month as the Sounders have been getting better results. They’ve also perhaps the best foreign transfer during this open window not named Thierry Henry. The Red Bulls and Thierry have been rightfully getting a ton of run in the media with their American soccer marriage, but dont short sell the positive impact the Sounders might get from striker Blaise Nkufu. The Swiss National player has been tearing up the Dutch Eredivisie, scoring 114 goals in his seven seasons with FC Twente. The Dutch club transferred him to the Sounders after his World Cup run with the Swiss ended. He hasnt played much yet, but got his first start Sunday night against Colorado. While he didnt find the back of the net, it’s telling that a team that’s struggled to score most of the season, tallied twice in the game’s first 20 minutes with their new striker on the field.

Blaise Nkufo, the best MLS foreign import this transfer window not named Thierry Henry

The Sounders have now won back to back MLS games for the first time this season. Can that momentum carry over into this CONCACAF playoff leg? This is an evolving team, one thats more healthy and more talented than the side they’ve been playing with for the bulk of their regular season.  This could be a compelling team to track in the upcoming weeks as they continue to mesh in new faces like Nkufo and Seamon and inject the healty bodies of Alonso and Jaqua into a lineup that’s already seeing solid production from the likes of Freddy Montero, the only player currently in the MLS’ top-10 in goals and assists, and midfielder Sanna Nyassi and Steve Zakuani. It might be too late to make a run at the MLS playoffs. But, the US Open Cup is there  for the taking. And, who knows, there might even be a Champions League group stage during which they can show off their new, improved form. The Sounders are saying all the right things in the run up to the match. But, it will take more than words–in fact, it might take some goals–to get by Metapan first. Los Caleros have been one of the top El Salvador clubs teams for most of the last decade. Their club soccer is divided into two seasons, Clausura and Apertura, and Metapan has one at least one of those chases four years running. They were in this tournament a year ago, but couldnt advance out of group play.  That’s the task for the Sounders tonight. We’ll find out if they’ve truly turned the corner with their new and improved look.

The MLS all-stars have five wins against one loss in these matches, with wins versus Chelsea, Celtic, West Ham, Fulham, and Guadalajara, and a loss last year against Everton on penalties. MLS fans will tell you this proves the league has the talent to compete with some of the best clubs in the world, while others would say the MLS all-stars do a good job treating an exhibition like the World Cup Final and have taken advantage of some out-of-form teams. Honestly, it’s somewhere in the middle. MLS does not get enough credit for its improvement over the years, but the opposition is usually a club getting ready for its meaningful season across the ocean.

None of this takes away from an all-star format that is fantastic. Bringing in top tier club teams to play the best of MLS makes the game exciting for fans and competitive for the players. Out of form or not, no club wants to come to the United States and lose, while the MLS stars want badly to beat these guys.  For all the complaining about the all-star events in major sports, here is one that gets it right. It’s a game, not a show; the players care, raising the competitive level; and there is an ‘us against them’ mentality, giving fans a chance to become emotionally invested. Add Man U to the mix and that means tonight is going to be fun.

The MLS will field a solid squad for the match, including names you might remember from the World Cup like Donovan, Buddle, and Bornstein. Donovan Ricketts (LA Galaxy) and Nick Rimando (Real Salt Lake) will be the goalkeepers, both capable of keeping the MLS in the match if when needed. In the back, Heath Pearce (FC Dallas), Kevin Alston (NE Revolution), Chad Marshall (Columbus Crew), Omar Gonzalez (Galaxy) and Bornstein (Chivas USA) stand to see plenty of action. The back line and the goalkeeping will obvioulsy be important against a Manchester United side that will see most of the possession and attack with numbers. This group of MLS defenders, with a mix of guys with international experience and young prospects, could be the key to the sixth and most celebrated victory for the MLS All-Stars.

It’s always hard to say who will play the most in these games, but there are no subbing limits and everyone usually sees the field. However, the most important players in the midfield for the MLS will be Sebastian Le Toux (Philly Union), Dewayne DeRosario (Toronto FC), Sharlie Joseph (NE Revolution), Javier Morales (Real Salt Lake), and David Ferreira (FC Dallas). The midfield is a mix of players who can defend (Joseph) and those who love to get forward (uh, most of the rest).

Ideally, Landon Donovan and Edson Buddle would be paired together up top for most of the match, but as Jamie discussed in his Concacaf Champions League post yesterday, there are other factors at play. Donovan and Buddle both started in LA’s embarrassing loss Tuesday, meaning they’ll likely come on in the second half. Jamie Moreno is on this team because he’s been in the MLS since before it was formed, so I would expect Dynamo star Brian Ching to get the start in his home city and Juan Pablo Angel (NY Red Bulls) to play up top as well. Guillermo Barros Schelotto (Columbus) could also make an appearance at forward.

All in all, not a bad squad for the MLS. The loss of Kyle Beckerman to injury is a killer, and having Donovan and Buddle available for more minutes would be great, but they’ll have a chance. The MLS coach, Bruce Arena, did rest his Galaxy stars Omar Gonzalez and Donovan Ricketts last night, so they look to be in the starting lineup. The strong defending will need to be complimented with tactical patience in the midfield and opportunistic finishing up top.

Manchester United come into the match off of a terrible loss to Kansas City, who played down a man for a portion of the match. Granted, most of the stars who played in the World Cup are resting, but that’s not how the Red Devils wanted to get ready for their season. They’ll look to rectify things tonight. It’s hard to guess the starting 11, but let’s look at some players to watch out for tonight.

Edwin Van Der Sar will probably start in net, with Wes Brown in front of him. Van Der Sar is still fantastic and Brown brings a wealth of experience to the back line sure to be filled out with less seasoned players. Darren Fletcher and John O’Shea sustained minor injuries against KC and may not be available. The midfield is what fans will pay to see. Mainstays Paul Scholes and Ryan Giggs will be present and the Portuguese national Nani will feature as well. Up top, look out for Dimitar Berbatov. The Bulgarian fires cannonballs and has impressed thus far. Most exciting however, could be the appearance of recently signed Javier Hernandez from Mexico. Chicharito, as he is known, showed brilliantly in the World Cup and could see his first action for the Red Devils tonight. Let’s hope that’s the case.

Manchester United should be the favorites in this match, but don’t ignore the history and the reasons for the MLS’s impressive record in these matches.  Still, I like Man U to win a close match 3-2.

 Obviously, there’s the Landon Donovan situation.  Over the dismay of some, the Manchester City siren call keeps whistling, last week to the tune of a reported $7 million salary for the American star. This possible transfer has been a talking point for weeks now, and if you plan on forecasting any deep run in this tournament you almost have to ponder how the Galaxy would cope in Group Play this fall without the star midfielder. I think there’s enough leftover where they could still manage enough results in their favor to squeeze out of group play, but it could go either way.  If they can swap in a talent like Ronaldinho in the wake of Donovan’s departure–something that even the owners of the other MLS teams are publically expecting to happen–then thats close enough to net zero loss, so all systems would be full steam ahead. The Donovan storyline will remain a constant until the transfer period ends later this summer. Since he can continue to play for LA, you wouldnt think it would impact the Galaxy tonight. It doesnt.

Who will Bruce play tonight, and for how long?

The allegedly exhibition MLS All Star game tomorrow night, however, is a different story. It could crater the Galaxy’s lineup tonight in the CCL. And how Bruce Arenas and surrounding brain trust juggles the lineup tonight against that backdrop would keep the line burning all day on sports radio in the leadup to the match. That is, if such a station that talked MLS soccer during their talk shows existed. Four Galaxy starters–Donovan, Edson Buddle, Omar Gonzalez and Donovan Ricketts–are starters for tomorrow night’s MLS All Star match against the travelling Manchester United squad. A nationally televised game on ESPN2, the suits at MLS would probably rather have those four players fresh for possible 90-minute efforts in an effort to get a result against a European club power.  Arenas is also the All Star coach tomorrow night. How is this going to go down? Will none of them play in the CCL? Will they try to squeeze some run out of them and how much? I doubt the Galaxy are getting anything to close to 90 minutes out of either of them. Maybe the keeper Ricketts. Whatever the line is on total combined minutes, I’m banking on the under. That said, Arenas has claimed his priorities are in order and that the CCL game tonight ranks higher on the importance scale. We’ll see because if you’ve been following the MLS in recent weeks, the game tomorrow with Man U has been getting all the hype, while barely a mention of the CCL is whispered, even on Fox Soccer Channel who will be broadcasting the Galaxy/Islanders game this evening. I guess this adds some intrigue as one of the best teams this year in the MLS takes on what’s developed into one of the lesser D2 teams this season after a stellar season a year ago qualified them for this tournament.

How will LA fare if they limit the four All Stars playing tomorrow? The Galaxy played well enough to win in the MLS without Buddle and Donovan going 4-1-1 in the matches when the pair were off on their World Cup sojourn. They were also inconsistent, especially as time wore on and the quality of competition stepped up. They twice failed to score in key MLS games in June against legit playoff contenders Real Salt Lake and Toronto. Both clubs are also two of the other three league teams playing in this event. The Galaxy were at least able to nudge out a draw against Toronto. Earlier this month, they were smoked by Seattle in the second half, the fourth MLS team in this event, during a 2-0 US Open Cup loss without Donovan, Buddle and Ricketts. They also played that game without three other starters who will be in the starting XI tonight. Seattle sat several key players as well, so its hard to put a ton of stock in that outcome when analyzing anything. It does show another example of the struggle to score in recent games without Donovan and Buddle in the lineup. The Galaxy missed a golden chance to score when Alan Jordan missed a sure goal, a finishing problem he’s flashed all season long. He’s going to be playing a ton of minutes tonight and might even get his fifth start of the season. If you can promise a goal out of him, I’d  give LA a better than average chance to at least notch a draw, and with full lineup next week for the final leg,  push ahead with a winning result then. However, he hasnt shown much scoring threat in his time on the pitch this year, tallying just a single goal and no assists. In the US Open Cup against Seattle, he whiffed on an easy chance in the first half. And, last week in an MLS game against San Jose he was a non factor in 81 minutes despite the long stretches of the game played with the Galaxy on the attack.

We already have questions about the team’s scoring acumen without their World Cup stars. We’re going to find how

Omar Gonzalez, the key to the Galaxy's back line

they also play without their top defensive chips. In addition to the midfield star and high scoring striker, you’re limiting or outright supplanting the best fullback on the team with Gonzalez and the best keeper in the league, not to mention one of the best in this tournament, in Ricketts. The former problem probably makes the diehard Galaxy cringe. During a loss and tie in two of their last three games, breakdowns on the backlines have given foes the scoring chances they needed to earn those results. Minus Gonzalez would you bet on a clean sheet? I wouldnt, which is  a far cry from how the Galaxy had performed thus far in 2010 with 13 clean sheets in MLS play. Gonzalez is an up and comer, approaching elite MLS status, was the Rookie of the Year in 2009 and could eventually crash the team photo of players who will look to solve the Americans Back Problems in international play.  How will Leonardo play? He’s been the victim on two goals of late, but Bruce Arenas is bullish, lauding his solid play despite his breakdown last week that led to the early San Jose goal in a 2-2 draw with the Quakes. As for playing without their keeper Ricketts, do you even know who the backup goalie is for the Galaxy? How many guess would you need? I’m going Over all the way on that one, babby. Kidding aside,  we might find out a whole mess of things about the backup. And, if rust leads to a poor game and a bad goal or two, the mighty Galaxy might be chasing bigtime come the rematch leg on the Island next week. Given the fact its been a month since their last clean sheet and they’ve had defensive breakdown and turnovers that cost them results in two MLS games and one US Open Cup game since they’re last shutout, this just doesnt sound like a good spot to limit your best defensive back and top keeper.

Despite their lowly current record, the Puerto Rico club has proven dangerous in this event. The Islanders are one of just seven clubs who are on a three-appearance streak in this event. In 2008, they advanced all the way to the semifinals. Last year, they beat Toronto of the MLS in this round, but couldnt get out of group play. They are determined to keep their Giant Killer reputation alive.  Colin Clarke has proven an excellent manager since taking over a little more than three years ago. They have an American in goal with Dan Gaudette. Jamaican Nicholas Adderly will take a ton of shots of net and will lead the way in that department tonight. But, he’s not the Islanders top scorer. David John Foley is the only Islander in their  league’s top 10 in goals and points and leads the teams with 5 goals and 10 points. Midfielders Sandi Hena Gbandi, one goal, four assists and Joshua Hanse, three goals and three assists are solid, reliable playmakers for the Islanders. Both have had small stints in the MLS in the past with Hansen actually playing for the Galaxy in 2006. Despite their perrformance in past CONCACAF Champions Leagues, the Islanders dont enter this event on any real high note. They sit in last place in the USL Conference of the first division of American professional soccer below the MLS. They’re record isnt awful at 5-7-5 and they’re just -1 in goal differential which is seventh best in the 12-team, 2 conference league. You could at least say they’re playing a bit better than what a typical last place team would look like. But they only have one win in nine starts on the road. They do have four draws, though. In fact, they’ve pulled four draws in a row in road games with all those matches taking place this month, so maybe they’re gaining some confidence away from homebase. And with the strong possibility of a makeship and disjointed Galaxy lineup, maybe the juicy +425 odds on a draw isnt worth a small flier or two. But, I wont go ahead and book that. Just tune in and enjoy some high stakes soccer.

INTERREGNUM: CLOCK TICKING ON 1-TEAM WAC

By Seth

 Yes, it’s an exercise in superfluity to predict Boise State will win the WAC. However, for the record: Boise State will win the WAC. But that’s not interesting; or, at least, it doesn’t make for interesting writing. When you write the WAC preview from the perspective of somebody interested only in the team that makes it out, that plays in a BCS bowl, you reduce any number of results to a binary formulation: either Boise State wins the WAC and finishes undefeated, or Boise State wins the WAC and does not finish undefeated. The consequences you care about aren’t December’s crowning of a conference champion, but rather January’s bowl selection and results.

For a while now, the WAC title race hasn’t been much of an event. It’s not merely because Boise State has taken the conference crown nearly every time; it’s because they’ve lost two games in ten years, and won the conference one of those years anyway. With one season left to play before their revered and despised leader departs for hillier and more verdant pastures, the WAC’s member schools stand ready to greet a welcomingly uncertain future. This preview, then, unlike many others, concerns itself not with this year’s national title race, but rather with the interregnum’s intrigue: the final jockeying for position as the monarch prepares to vacate his throne. Like all horse races, this one has different groupings: the Contenders and the Challengers, and then the (uncovered) Chaff.

The Contenders

Under Pat Hill, Fresno State has never had a losing record in-conference. Of course, with the exception of the 4-8 2006 team’s swoon, FSU hasn’t had a losing record over all, either. But even then, in his darkest hour, Hill pulled out four conference victories—including one over 8-win Nevada to open the season. There is no reason to think that this team will not match last year’s conference record, even with its surrender of conference rushing leader (1,808 total yards; 6.6 ypc and 150.67 ypg) Ryan Matthews to the NFL. For one thing, in 2009 each of FSU’s 4 losses was to a bowl team; for another, two of them were to BCS-bound Cincinnati and Boise State, and another was to 10-win Wisconsin (last seen smothering Miami in January, but only after having beaten FSU’s conference-mate Hawai’i 51-10 in December). And for another, pace Myerberg, FSU will replace Matthews better than you might think. Each of the past 6 seasons, they have rushed for more than 4.5 ypc. In fact, before Matthews (2007-2009) became a featured back in the offense, they had several unfairly effective rushing attacks; in 2006, with Dwayne Wright (1,462 yds; 11 TDs) leading the attack, FSU rang up a whopping 5.02 ypc on the ground. Even on route to their worst finish in decades, they got it done down low. Anyone expecting anything less than a stellar rushing attack with the entire offensive line returning for 2010 should be prepared for a pleasant surprise. What the fortunes give in one breath, however, they take away in another; the FSU front seven permitted opponents a whopping 6.01 ypc on the ground, and surrendered an uninspiring 22 rushing touchdowns. This year’s pre-conference schedule promises to yield some victories, as eminently winnable home games against rebuilding Cincinnati and dilapidated Illinois will be complemented by an execution of Cal Poly at home. The marquee OOC match-up, though, looks like it will be at Mississippi, whose defense of Oxford under Houston Nutt has been strong overall (11-3) but prodigious against non-conference opponents (6-0). To demand a win in Mississippi would be unrealistic, but to imagine a 3-1 record out of conference, and a 9-3 record overall, would be well in line with recent results and the consistency Hill’s teams have demonstrated in-conference. Fresno State’s Bulldogs will play in a bowl game this year; whether they will challenge for the second place in-conference, and head into 2011 with a target on their backs, remains to be seen.

Fresno State’s Ryan Matthews took the rushing award very quietly; the bigger to-do, obviously, was Nevada’s convoy of thousand-yard rushers. Blah blah blah system blah blah inflation blah blah. The offense was a sight to behold during Nevada’s 8-game winning streak from October 3^rd through November 21^st, when they beat UNLV by 5 touchdowns in a home edition of their yearly derby and averaged 47.25 points a game. And yet, on October 3^rd, the offense was a sight for sore eyes rather than a sight to behold; opening the year with a hideous blanking in South Bend, and failing to come within a touchdown of (bad) Colorado State and (mediocre) Missouri, had Chris Gault’s team reeling, desperate for a win, heading into the league season. It hardly bears mention that Nevada’s most effective performances came against teams with the worst rushing defenses in the country; with national rankings of #77 and #81, respectively, Idaho and Louisiana Tech put the most effective units on the field to face the Pistol, but Hawai’i’s, Utah State’s, Fresno State’s, UNLV’s, and San Jose State’s piteous squads all gave up more than 200 yards a game on the ground and proved themselves incapable of stopping Nevada whatsoever. The offense will be good, and will win Nevada league games. But can consistency enter the picture, and reduce the recurrent nightmare that has every season marked by tale-of-two-teams streakiness? Feast-or-famine is no way to win conference titles regularly, even in this league. With the WAC championship becoming something other than an abstract property in 2011, it will be the work of 2010 for Gault, and his team, to balance the 7-1 conference record with some out-of-conference victories, and to balance the 344.92 ypg offense with something other than a 409.3 ypg defense. Another excellent league record is within reach, with Nevada playing seven home games for the first time in the ‘pack’s history as a Division-I football team; taking a big step in the direction of a conference crown as soon as that piece of headware becomes wearable will involve going on the road and beating Fresno State and Hawai’i. You have the horses; they all return. Will it be L 10-45 (2010 SMU-Nevada), or W 52-14 (2009 FSU-Nevada), on the scoreboard in Fresno and Honolulu? Champions reduce inconsistency to nothing, and make mistakes marginal factors; as perennial runners-up, the Wolfpack hasn’t yet had to try that out.

The Challengers

Hawai’i finds itself in an odd position, as the clock runs out on the 1-team WAC, if only because this was the only squad that took a conference championship away from the Broncos. You’ll remember: 2007’s magical title campaign saw Colt Brennan and his receivers connect for six touchdowns and 495 yards of offense to send Boise back home with an 11-point loss instead of a league title. Last year’s Rainbow squad, initially led by the able Greg Alexander, faltered at Lousiana Tech by turning in an ugly 6-27 effort; Alexander tore his ACL in the game, and saw his college career end that night. Credit where it’s due: McMackin righted the ship after the Bows’ six-game losing streak and rattled off four straight toward the end of the season, with an upset over Kenny Niumatalolo’s 10-win Middies at Aloha Stadium. WAC secondaries are typically poor, and Hawai’i’s was only sort of an exception last year (allowed 200 ypg), at least UH returns two players with game experience at every roster spot. McMackin’s new DC, Dave Aranda, will look to have the depth and talent in the defensive backfield take some pressure off a weak front seven (opp. avg = 4.8 ypc last year) now in need of finding a suitable replacement for departing all-Conference OLB Blaze Soares. Luckily for Hawai’i, it returns both its QB and its all-American receiver, Greg Salas, whose 1,590 receiving yards was tops for the conference and exceeded the next-place total, that of Vandal Max Komar, by 538 yds. The attack will be as potent as ever through the air in pure yardage terms, though efficiency in the red zone—the team’s primary offensive weakness last year—will need to improve if better results are to be had. And this is a primary complaint one might make about the McMackin era, when comparing it with the tenure of Coach Mack’s predecessor, June Jones: the team lacks the killer instinct, the score-at-will attitude, that characterized the monstrous 2006 and 2007 offenses. McMackin will have the horses this year to try and dismiss the criticism. Though the Bows won a few close ones (3-1 in ≤ 7pt Contests), and had a Hawai’i team’s typical road weakness (1-4 away), this next year’s team should not only reach a bowl game, but set itself up well to challenge for third or even second place in the conference. Look for a tough OOC slate (Charleston Southern and at Army are offset by USC and at Colorado) to be balanced by a favorable conference schedule; 2009 bowl teams Nevada and Idaho come to Aiea, with @ rival Fresno State surely the toughest conference road game. The Fresno State game (in 2009: FSU 42 17 UH, two Hawai’i touchdowns in garbage time with < 8:00 remaining) will be difficult. However, FSU’s status as a rival, and as a team against which Hawaii has a strong record (15-9-1 since 1970, 6-3 since 2001, and 4-1 at FSU since 2001) make this a crucial swing game in Hawaii’s campaign, which, while not unwinnable, may prove the best indicator of the Bows competitiveness moving into a more wide-open conference future.   

Whether or not Utah State ever produces a WAC conference champion remains an open question; less in doubt, however, is that their 2009 squad was quite a bit more competitive than it had any right to be (an early loss at Texas A&M was less competitive than the score makes it seem [two garbage-time scores by USU beautify the result], but USU’s near-achievement of yardage parity represented undeniable progress), and more success should be forthcoming. Gary Peterson, fresh off coordinating the 2008 Utah defense that smothered Alabama’s attack and secured a Sugar Bowl victory, had his team playing with resolve last year (), even if the results didn’t register where it counts (4-8 [3-5]). This year’s squad promises to be better. A crucial question will involve whether the offense can overcome the loss of 2^nd-team all-WAC center Brennan McFadden by returning four contributors on the line and a surfeit of talent at the skill positions (all WRs are upperclassmen, with several years of contributions made, though none but Stanley Morrison has been a consistent starter; QB Diondre Borel and RB Michael Smith constitute an all-senior backfield). Fun fact: Peter Caldwell, who also returns at K/P, led the conference in punting last year with a 42.19 yd average. With a 10-win MWC heavyweight rotating off the schedule in Utah, but a loaded and unbeatable-at-home Oklahoma team waiting in Norman for the opener and an October 1^st date with BYU looming in Logan, USU will need to improve on its conference marks, especially in October, if the post-season is to be a realistic possibility. It seems unlikely that a bowl is in USU’s immediate future, given the OOC slate and the Aggies’ historical disadvantages, but their coach has a proven track record and the conference slate can be forgiving for a WAC team that fields a defense. Look to see a season in the mold of an Idaho 2009 during Peterson’s tenure here, and maybe even as early as 2011 or 2012.

I am not especially confident that Idaho will repeat last year’s success. To be sure, there are some encouraging numbers. Though they were outscored by a field goal a game, the Vandals not only maintained yardage parity both on the air and on the ground, but also managed to limit turnovers to only 7 interceptions and 8 fumbles lost (overall TO margin: +8). Televised replays of the Vandals’ daring OT bowl victory on a 2-point conversion will provide perhaps the greatest tribute to the 2009 squad’s resilience under pressure; they should also remind us of the razor-thin margin for error the Vandals enjoyed throughout the year. They beat reeling Hawai’i in October, but were outgained; the same was true of their Halloween match against Utah State, as the Aggies outgained the Vandals by nearly a hundred yards and lost by one. Those were wins, fair and square. They don’t keep score by tallying yards, or crucial turnovers, or even thrilling finishes. And yet, one hesitates to hope for another bowl; the out-of-conference schedule features a sure loss in Lincoln, and while games against Colorado State, North Dakota, and San Jose State might well be winnable, another .500 conference record is no guarantee, given the great difficulty with which that modest goal was achieved last year.

Into the Unknown

Besides 2007, college football’s craziest season in recent memory, the years have been unkind to the teams which will constitute the WAC in 2011. The conference championship has long been something awarded in the pre-season, rather than earned on the field of play; and as a result, appraisals of the WAC race have been cursory, sketchy, largely distracted affairs. 2010 provides a brief interregnum, during which the assembly of momentum for 2011 will be an overriding priority. The king is about to depart, and the assembled contestants for his throne are gathered. Let’s hope the next king’s reign is shorter, and not quite so absolute.

Assembling this post would not have been thinkable without the invaluable resources placed at the reader’s hand by http://www.cfbstats.com, and by the tireless and inimitable Paul Myerberg, now at http://www.presnapread.com .

Everyone remembers the last time Miami and Ohio State met on the football field. The Buckeyes beat Miami in the 2003 BCS National Title Game. Maurice Clarett, to this day,  is still keeping himself in high stead with the cigarettes by regaling his tales and legends from this contest during motivational speeches he gives the various cellblocks as part of his prison job. One of the most popular: Justifiable Assault: The Story Of Cie Grant And Ken Dorsey. Even the most novice inmate lawyer knows there’s a justifable defense in there somewhere, but it’s still such a cool story that it’s easily the heaviest attended of his speeches. So much so that the Ohio Corrections Department actually receives a state grant for extra security and they bus in convicts from state pens across the Buckeye state to hear his words. Clarett would rather recite some of his personal favorite bits, lincluding Real World Applications: What I Learned From The Canes;  From Wine Coolers To Goose, Going Hardcore In 6 Easy Steps; and I’m Taking My Talents To Stuebenville,  but some of those are just too dry and clinical, more for the convention scene. Besides, Mo-C is all about the fans, so he gives them what they want.

How many people, though, remember their other most recent head-to-head matchup? Does the 1999 season opener ring any bells?  It was played in the now defunct Kickoff Classic game that, along with the Pigskin Classic, broke the seal on the new season a week before the first scheduled week of fulltime action. An August oasis of football, so close to the finishing line of the dry off season. What a perfect idea. The Kickoff Classic was always played in Meadowlands in the shadow of New York City. Armed with your favorite underneath a hot August sun cliche, lets go into the Wayback Machine for a quick trip to that summer afternoon 11 years ago.

The Buckeyes had just finished an elite run of four years where they did virtually everything but win a national championship. Some killer losses to Michigan during that stretch probably kept them from winning a national crown. They had lost only two regular season games to anyone other other than the Wolverines. NFL Draft Day had become a celebration of riches for Buckeye players. Miami, meanwhile, was granted to have had a load of budding talent, but hadn’t competed much on the national level in the wake of their 1995 probabtion. The stars of this team included, all underclassmen, Najeh Davenport, Jeremy Jackson, Santana Moss, Reggie Wayne, Dan Morgan, Nate Webster and Mike Rulph. Ken Dorsey was a year away from starting. Ed Reed was a year away from arriving on campus. But plenty of pieces were already in place. We had seen a glimpse of it in the season finale the prior season when an Edgerrin James powered Cane outfit upset undefeated UCLA, knocking the Bruins out of the national title picture. James had bolted for the NFL, but the Canes still had enough untapped talent to throttle the Buckeyes that day 23-12, in a game that was never less than a double digit spread the entire second half. At this time in the college football world it was a seismic outcome to see Ohio State not only lose this early in the season, but also as decisively as they did. 

Despite losing a nice core from their 1998 Rose Bowl Champion team the season before, the Buckeyes had been installed as 5-point chalk that day. I dont think most people knew just how mediocre that Buckeye team, which eventually didnt even make it to a bowl game, would be. How many guesses would the OSU fan on the street need to guess who the starting QB was in that game? How many of them would even recognize Austin Moherman’s name? And I know we werent thinking the Canes as a legit contender for national honors. But even though they had a couple dozen or so more losses than OSU over the previous four seasons, they had more talent in their starting lineup that day than the Bucks. Who knew? It took another season before the Canes put up a national title contending season, but it became clear against OSU that day that the Canes were officially on the rise. Of their four 1999 losses, one came to Penn State, who owned the top ranking from the start of the year through their upset loss to Minnesota in Novemer, and two others came to Florida State and Virginia Tech who squared off against each other for the national championship. Over the next three seasons, Miami only lost two total games.

The second of which, of course, was to the Buckeyes in that aforementioned title game. The roles had been reversed. Miami was the elite of the elite, while OSU, after three average seasons, was trying to re-establish its place at the head table. And, like in 1999, the winner extended on a long run of unparalled success (OSU has won 5 league titles in a row and six straight against the hated Wolverines) while the loser for a variety of reasons sagged back into the depths of the middle class and December, at best, bowl destinations. The Canes bottomed out on their end of this trend going 13-14 from 2006-07.

This bizarre torch passing of their place among the game’s elite class has become the historical pattern for this series. Will it repeat itself this season? Is OSU the power thats fading and we just dont know it. Are the Canes crafting another era of collegiate football dominance? Will this game spark those forces into action? Eh, I dont know. I dont see OSU going anywhere. They’re offense is on the come and the key pieces will still be in place next year. And, well, I just cant envision this program’s defense ever falling off the charts. But, I do think the Canes might be growing into a national power. They’re loaded with young, yet experienced talent. They too will still have just about every key piece in place for 2012. But can they ever navigate the always competitive ACC and miss all the underrated landmines thrown at them? Look at their slate this year. Non league games at OSU and Pitt, the brutal Atlantic Division round robin with Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and North Carolina, all legit top-20 or better teams, games at Clemson and at home against Florida State. That’s seven really talented teams. Does anybody else in the country have a more grueling hardest seven games? I doubt it. This team could go 8-4 and still have a lot of good things on its resume.

BATTLE OF TOP END RECRUITING CLASSES

The talent level, at least per recruiting gurus’ marks, is pretty even. The upperclassmen on these teams are from the 2006-08 recruiting classes. Per Rivlas, each of these years  OSU only finsihed a spot or two higher than Miami each time in the recruiting rankings. Of course, the Buckeyes added those classes to an on-going talent factory. They were just reloading. Miami is using these classes as a way to re-open their talent factory. They’re rebuilding with these crews and they improved from 5 to 7 to 9 wins heading into the year. The 2008 recruiting cycle was a gold mine for both clubs. This matchup represents in many ways the #4 ranked recruiting class of OSU vs the #5 ranked recruiting class of Miami. Both talent hauls are in bloom with the cores of both teams locked down by players enterting their third year in college from those high end classes.

On offense for Ohio State, you only have 5-star players Terrelle Pryor and Devar Posey from that class. Pryor was the top ranked recruit in 2008. The Bucks have two more 5-stars from 2008 on the line with Mike Brewster and Mike Adams. JB Shugarts, a 2008 4-star joins them up front after starting 10 games a year ago. They’ll be knocking heads with a Cane D that’s equipped with six starters who were either a 5- or 4-star recruit from the very same recruiting class: DE Marcus Robinson, DE Marcus Forston, LBs Sean Spence and Raymond Buchanan, CB Brandon Harris and S Vaughn Telemaque. All are returning fulltime starters except for Buchanan, but he played in every game a year ago and did start twice when Spence was out with an injury.  The OSU offense has been a steady work in process with Pryor under center and could be primed for big things in Year 3. The Cane defense has been a steady work in process having inserted the talented 2008 freshmen class almost instantly and, after improving their points allowed from 26 ppg to 22.2 during their first two years, are they also primed for big things in Year 3? Two of the most intriguing sides of the ball in the college game will be meeting in this one.

When the roles are reversed and the Canes have the ball, they’ll be led by Jacory Harris, a 4-star 2008 recruit. One of his most dagerous targets is Travis Benjamin a fellow 4-star recruit from that class. As for the OSU defense, they’ll be abosrbing three of their five new starters on D from the 2008 class: DE Nathan Williams, LB Etienne Sabino and DB Orhian Johnson.  We’ve seen enough of Williams in more than spot duty to know he can play. But Sabino and Johnson have barely seen the field. Are these legit question marks for OSU? Something tells me there is an option or two in place if these cats dont work out right away, but we’ll see. The bottomline is you would expect top-5 recruiting classes to be moving into championship contention by the time their respective upperclassmen years begin. While only OSU is being given a chance at the BCS title among these two, both are favorites to win their conference. The Bucks are significant 2/3 to win the Big 10 automatic BCS bid while the Canes get the slight nod from the betting public right now in ACC futures at +275 with Virginia Tech at 3/1 and Florida State and UNC at 6/1. This series may not look as sexy as the Bucks two game wars they’ve had recently with Texas and USC. But with the 2008 classes at both schools looking more than on track to live up to their top-5 recruiting billing, its a gift for football fans that these programs will be knocking heads in 2010 and 2011 during their third and fourth year on campus.

UH, THIS IS GETTING TL;DR, DO YOU HAVE A LEAN OR SOMETHING? WHAT’S YOUR POINT?

The Bucks are signinicant favorites in this game as well. On-lines are offering a price of OSU -8 as we approach the 50-day window until kickoff. I think that’s a little too high. I think we’re seeing some lingering perceptions based on the last snapshot we got from these teams during bowl season. Miami was rolled by Wisconsin while Ohio State upset Oregon in the Rose Bowl with Terrelle Pryor showing Heisman Trophy contending caliber play. But had it happened the other way around, then Miami is coming off a 10-win season and OSU is the same old Buckeye squad that cant win big out of conference games. They’d probably still be chalk in this game, but not by this much. And certainly, the Canes would be getting top 10 hype, instead of a boring old ranking in the teens or low 20s. I just think those games are about as irrelevant as you can get when handicapping this game. Miami, because Jacory Harris is a more accomplished passer than Jeromiah Masoli, should have more offensive success than the Ducks did. Michigan, on the arm of freshmen Tate Forcier has no trouble generating offense through the air. Neither will Harris and if he can avoid the tunrover bug–a big IF for a player with a 36-25 TD-Int ratio over his career–then the Canes might stroll out of the Shoe with a win.  At the very least, the points they can get in the passing game will have them in this contest the whole way. They’re 12-8 ATS as a road dog, while the Bucks at 9-10 ATS at home the last three seasons arent exactly a profit mill at the Shoe. This might be one of the more talented underdogs to come into Columbus during that stretch. I dont think you can give them more than a touchdown headstart and expect to come out with a winning ticket. We’re not booking anything just yet, but we’d be lying if we said we’re not interested in taking a chance with the Canes here.

Northwestern gained a ton of credibility in their tightly fought, overtime loss in the Outback Bowl to Auburn of the Big Bad SEC. They will pretty much give all that goodwill away should they lose their season opener on the road to Vanderbilt. And, in the process, drive an early stake through the heart of the suddenly bullish perception of the Big 10 conference. Before we kickoff the 2010 season, the Big 10 probably stands as tall as its stood in recent years in the eyes of the general college football populace. One of the gears driving that uptick was the bowl season a year ago, including two BCS bowl wins, Penn State and Wisconsin beating southern powers and, despite losing, Northwestern rolling up and down the field, dealing out more than 600 yards of total offense against an SEC defense. But if that same Northwestern team gags to a Vanderbilt program thats averaged 3.5 wins a year over the last decade, then let the howling begin. Certainly it will be brought up time and time again throughout the season, especially when Northwestern, as they usually do after a head scratching, early season loss, rebounds and earns a bowl bid. The daily O/U on yokels calling in on the Paul Finebaum daily the second half of the season highlighting the damning evidence of one of the Big 10′s  better teams losing to lowly Vandy will be in the double digits. And each will think they’re down home wittier than the previous caller. I’d rather listen to people debate the fricking relationships on Twilight. I’d also like to not have to defend my screed that this team is decidedly not a lucky, but a good team to the MGo masses this early in this season. So, please, Northwestern, win this game. Think of the children. And, then eat the Commordores. kthnx!!

In all seriousness, the Big 10 might have the most to lose in this game than in any other during the opening weekend. Purdue and Illinois are both big underdogs. They cant really lose anything. Yes, Marshall upsetting Ohio State would be so much larger on the LOL scale for Big 10 detractors, but we’ll cross the bridge of major earth shattering upset when it happens. Its borderline crazy to contemplate it. Michigan is a unique situation. While every move they make early in the season will be used as a referenda for or against another year of Rich Rodriguez, I dont think anything Michigan does until we know for sure what kind of team they are will be a reflection on the actual strength of the league. This has been one of the worst teams in the league the last two years and losing to a UConn team in the opener coming off consecutive bowl wins is no tell tale sign up or down on the greater Big 10.  Nor will a win. That game is a 100 percent Michigan issue. In this Northwestern game, the Big 10 cant win any style points, but they stand to lose a whole heckuva lot.

Lowly Syracuse upset the Cats a year ago, will the 'Dores do the same in 2010?

I’m interested in what the eventual point spread will be in this game. I know, shocking. But just two years ago, to open the 2008 season, Vandy was a home underdog to Miami of the MAC by three points. Miami was coming off a bowl season and were hyped in the summer as a league contender. Vandy was, well Vandy, and seemed a sure thing to picked off by a plucky BCS buster. Yeah, no. The ‘Dores smoked Miami 34-13 in a game that was never close. Incidentally, Miami went on to a brutal 2-10 season, while Vandy qualified and won its first bowl game in almost 20 years en route to an 7-6 season. Could the same thing happen in this one with Vandy pulling off the home upset. It would not be a total surprise. My support for Northwestern aside, let’s be honest here. The Wildcats dont blow anybody out. They specialize in playing–and winning–in close games, so every game they play is dangerous. They also have this little problem of never winning all their non conference games. Last year they lost at Syracuse as road chalk. Two years, Duke beat them. Even in their Rose Bowl year, the aforementioned Miami from the MAC toppled them. This game is a major trap for Northwestern. And the Big 10. It’s one of the more intriguing, under-the-radar games of opening weekend. I’ll be tuning in, purple sock attire and all.

The Big 10 secured a total of 7 5-star commitments during 2007. That number compares well to most of the other BCS leagues. I said most. That doesnt include the SEC, which tallied a dozen of the highest ranked commits that cycle: Tennessee, 5; Florida, 4; LSU, 2; and South Carolina, 1. The Vols with 5? Wow, talk about a future subject matter to pursue: how a recruiting class with a quintent of 5-stars wallows in mediocrity. The Pac 10 had six 5-star recruits, but all of them signed with USC. The ACC had five signees,the  Big 12 four and the Big East landed three. Only six teams landed mutliple 5-star recruits that season, and two of them were from the Big 10.

Michigan was one of the Big 10 teams that grabbed multiple 5-stars: QB Ryan Mallett and DB Donovan Warren. Neither player is still with the program. Mallett transfered after his freshmen season in Ann Arbor to Arkansas where he is the starter and has eligibiilty through 2011. Warren, meanwhile, played three seasons in the Maize and Blue before declaring for the NFL Draft after the 2009 campaign.  He wasnt selected and is trying to make the New York Jets roster as an undrafter free agent. This represents the tricky part of evaluating recruiting classes after a few years. Clearly Michigan recruited well in this case. But, they couldn’t retain Mallett and therefore get knocked because none of his current high end results took place in Ann Arbor. As for Warren, he clearly didn’t perform up to the 5-star level that classmate Eric Berry did. But, he arguably equalled the play of Texas’ Curtis Brown, the only other 5-star CB in the 2007 class, who has an honorable mention Alll Big 12 on his resume. Still, as a Michigan fan, I’m partly left unsatisfied with Warren’s tenure in Ann Arbor. I dont think he underachieved, but he clearly left a year too early and maybe all the losing has obscured some of his stellar play in this critic’s eye. However, its pretty clear that the signing day excitement 3.5 years ago of reeling in a pair of 5-stars was close to the peak of the Mallett/Warren era at Michigan. And that is decidedly not a good outcome.

One of Ryan Mallett's last plays on the field as a Wolverine

Illinois was the other Big 10 team to sign a pair of 5-stars that cycle. Like Michigan, Illinois has suffered through a pair of losing seasons during the second and third years on campus for these recruits. They’ve also seen a defection of one of the studs, WR Arrellious Benn who declared early for the NFL Draft. He was selected in the second round by Tampa Bay.

The second 5-star the Illini reeled in that year was Martez Wilson. After playing his first two years, he suffered a neck injury in last year’s season opener, missed the rest of the season and received a medical redshirt. He is projected to be back at MLB for the Illini’s defense this fall and has eligibility through 2011. From 2005-2008, an Illini LB led the conference in tackles. Wilson was expected to extend that streak a year ago until the injury forced him to the sideline. Illinois could really use an uptick in defensive performance and if Wilson can return to the lineup, play healthy and begin living up to that 5-star billing, they might just see a better team performance on that side off the ball. When we last saw the Illini, they scored 88 points in their final two games, but lost them both because they allowed 49 and 53 points respectively in those games. If they want to make a bowl game, they need the defense to improve a few notches. Can the re-insertion of a former 5-star recruit entering his fourth year in the program pave the way for that kind of improvement? He’s only started seven games for the Illini, but he was third on the team in tackles in 2008 and has 9 career tackles for a loss. One thing to keep in mind about Wilson is that he came to college as a defensive end, so its required some time, despite his talent to learn the position. Now, he’s coming off an injury. He just hasnt had a chance to fully tap his potential. I’d be giddy at the thought of two more years of eligibility out of him. Would it surprise you if he became one of the best LBs in the Big 10 during the rest of his stint at Illinois? Based on seven starts and 73 tackles in 2008, at a minimum Wilson ought to be a statistical leader if he can stay on the field all season.

Before leaving Wilson behind a couple more things. Rivals listed him as a weakside defensive end. Only one other player under that umbrella earned a fifth star from the organization. Carlos Dunlap. He moved right onto the DE depth chart in Gainesville and was a star during his sophomore and junior years. He turned pro early and was picked in the second round of the April draft by Cincinnati.  The remainder of the top-10 at that position were all 4-stars. Clint Matthews (South Carolina) and Kenny Rowe (Oregon) have developed into starters and all-league caliber players.  Frank Alexander (Oklahoma) and Jaye Howard (Florida) both redshirts, Howard moved inside to tackle and after the last two seasons being effective contributers off the bench finally get their chance at starting. The remaining four in the top-10 seemed destined not to make any impact at all.

As for the fifth 5-star the Big 10 brought in that year, I probably could give you upwards of 20 guesses as to who that is and you wouldnt be able to pull out the name. I know right now you’re racking your brain going through the Ohio State and maybe even the Penn State roster. You wont find the answers there. And, its not Greg Jones from MSU either, although he is ending up perhaps the most valuable recruit signed during that cyle. He was just a lowly 3-star.

The answer is Wisconsin’s Jonathon Oglesby, a home state offensive line recruit for the Badgers. At 6/7, over 330 pounds, he is a physical specimen. It took him awhile to break into the lineup. He took a redshirt year. Coaches talked last summer about Oglesby learning to play meaner and more aggressively. He must have figured it out as he started almost every game last year at tackle. He’s part of a very strong offensive line. Despite his guru bonafides as a 5-star, he is no better than the third best lineman in the Badgers starting unit behind guard Gabe Carimini and center John Moffitt.  But with two more years left to play, he’s more than on track to live up to that fifth star and become an NFL draft pick in the spring of 2012.

I’m not trying to prove anything with this post. I’m working on a post(s) in the future that retroactively reranks the 2007 recruiting class, and I got sidetracked looking at the ups and downs of these former 5-star recruits. Consider this a sidebar, well in advance of the actual post. But, I find it revealing that Michigan didnt get great production from its five stars, Wisconsin’s lone 5-star is only now coming into his own and Wilson at Illinois has dealt with a positional change and season-long injury keeping him out of the lineup. Even 5-star recruits take time to develop and find their true place on the field.

Note: These are for regular season wins only. Bowl games will not count. Dont lose sight of that whenever handicapping these numbers.

Ohio State O/u 10.5 wins…….this is the only Big 10 team that needs to win an elite number of games to tilt the Over. If OSU losses twice in the regular season–something they’ve done eight times in the last 11 years, the Under will cover. The Bucks are going for their sixth straight league title, but the conference appears to be getting stronger and sits as well regarded as its really been during this oppressive Scarlett and Gray stranglehod. With road trips to Wisconsin and Iowa, there are losses on this schedule, right?  The key game to this whole equation might be the non league tilt with Miami in the second weekend. The Canes are on the uptick, but not nearly as top shelf as the Texas or USC outfits the Bucks played in those series that have led to three of the most recent multi loss seasons in Columbus. Without a loss to the Canes, the Bucks would need to lose twice in league play to stay under the total. Thats something they havent done since 2004.

Wisconsin, O/U 9 wins……..You know the Badgers will rack up wins. Their non conference slate of at UNLV, San Jose, Arizona State and Austin Peay has 4-0 written all over it. That leaves them to put up a 6-2 record in conference play to win any over bet. The problem? Thats a mark the Badgers have hit only twice in the 10 seasons since their consecutive Rose Bowl appearances to close out the 1990s. They just cant avoid the Big 10 landmines. They gag away in-the-bag road wins in Ann Arbor and East Lansing. Get worked over by Northwestern every other time out. They just cant beat Iowa, period. Purdue owned them the first half of the decade. The league big dogs Ohio State and Penn State have had little resistance from them the last three seasons. Even Indiana has found a way to beat the Badgers twice this decade. But with no Penn State on the docket, Ohio State coming to Madison and a typically no win road trip to Michigan being the farthest thing from that, maybe the door is wide open for a break through Big 10 record. How will the Badgers do on the road in league play against the slate of at MSU, at Iowa, at Purdue and at Michigan? Only twice–2000 and 2006–have the Badgers won more than two road games on their Big 10 slate during the last decade

Penn State O/U  8.5 wins…….Penn State and Iowa are both listed at 8.5. I find that convenient because I doubt the loser of their head to head will be able to go Over the total. As it stands in July, Penn State is staring at sure losses in Tuscaloosa and Columbus. If they lose this one, they would need to be perfect the rest of the way. It just doesnt look like a vintage Nittany Lion team right now to not expect a loss or two in contests they would otherwise win. Would I be surprised if Paterno rallied the team to overachieve with a great looking record? Not at all. I just think there are too many holes on this team to make feel comfortable about any over bet. The biggest hole? They are staring at quite possible sub-Morelli like play at quarterback. That will not help the over.

Iowa, O/U 8.5 wins…….As for Iowa, they have a much better chance to absorb a loss to Penn State and still grab the nine wins needed to win an over play on them. But, if they’re not good enough to beat Penn State at home, you have to doubt they can sweep Wisconsin, OSU and Michigan State even in Iowa City. The Ann Arbor swing, based on last year’s game, looms tougher for the Hawks than any of the other league contenders. Oh, and the Hawks have a road trip to Arizona to play a revenge-minded Cat team. Big 10 teams always do well on road trips into Pac 10 land, dont they? Oh, wait, no they dont. At first blush, it looks like an easy over. This team has been tough as nails to beat the last two years, have a ton of important experience and play all its hardest games of the year at home where they’ve been farily dominant for the last decade. But the number at 8.5 seems so low. Interestingly, Vegas nailed a hefty price tag on an Over play, however, at -160. Thats a lot of juice, especially for an investment that wont pay out for at least three months. Rather than making the number higher to even out the volume of bets on each side, the oddsmakers have just jacked the price up on the highly touted Hawkeyes. What does that mean? Well, if the Book does get an equal number of bets on the over and the under, they’ll make a bigger profit on the Under cashing in. Their strategy in setting this number puts them on the side of Iowa having at least four losses. Do you think the oddsmakers typically put themselves on sides not likely to win? I dont. This has officially become a talking point.

Michigan, O/U 7 wins……..I wont lie. I’m tempted to play this. I believe Michigan will win seven games this year. It’s my relentless optimism that makes me feel the Wolverines will finally see some talent and coaching dividends to soar them past that mark. Sometimes I just want to bet on my team. In a world where nobody believes them, I like the Karmic appeal of going, ahem,  all in on this spot. Ok, let’s be serious for a second. Most of us feel that 7-5 is the most likely outcome for the season. Why not claim a  bout of homerism and go over that. If it matches the original expectations, you get your money back. No harm, no foul. Even if you’re from the pessimistic side, then take the Under and relish the team’s return to the postseason. You’d never imagine losing was such a good time. It comes down to games against Michigan State, Illinois and Purdue, the first two of which are at Michigan Stadium. Michigan is 0-3 against those outfits in each of the last two years. You have to dig pretty deep into the history books to find three straight losses to any of those foes. If Michigan can manage to squeeze out a 2-1 mark against those three–and currently Michigan is favored by 3 over MSU and a road pick ‘em at Purdue–then 7-5 and no worse than a money back guarantee ought to be a given.

You dont need to be an underdog to rush the field, but you do to spring an upset

I bring this up after reading this post over on the SBN trying to predict the top 5 upsets that will occur this year during the Big 10 football season. In no particular order the blogger selected UConn over Michigan, Penn State over Iowa, Wisconsin over Ohio State, Iowa over Wisconsin and Purude over Michigan. All reasonable picks. I wouldnt be surprised if he had a winning record with those five.  But upsets? You’re not really going for degree of difficulty points with those five. And you’ve committed a Cardinal Sin in my book. You’re picked a team that’s favored,  predicted them to win and called it an upset. To quote Marvin the Martian, that makes me very angry.

Iowa is favored over Wisconsin, by a -3 line per the oddsmakers. A win by the Hawks over the Badgers isn’t an upset. Frankly, Iowa doesnt upset anybody in Iowa City. Even when they are an underdog at Kinnick Stadium, I still expect them to win. They are rarely catching points however at home. Right now, they arent in this one, and I doubt that will have changed come game week in mid-October considering they’ve only been an underdog twice in the last nine years at home against anybody other than Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State. When one of your prime summer upsets involves a favorite winning at home something has gone awry. For that matter, a second pick of those five isnt really an upset either, but rather an outcome of coin flip. Michigan at Purdue, well off in the distant future of November, is listed as a pick ‘em, so while picking the Boilers to beat Michigan may sound chic, it’s hardly going near the thin ice in the middle of creek by picking a team thats won two in a row in the series and might as well be the chalk since the game is a pick ‘em and their playing at home in Ross Ade Stadium.

I’ll grant the rest, although two of them–Wisconsin over Ohio State and Penn State over Iowa–the line is tight with the projected upset winner only catching a field goal at the start. With PSU over Iowa, you gain on the upset metet by picking Iowa to lose at home. However, I’ve used the coin flip term up above and these games are pretty close to that as we break it down in the summer. The fifth game, UConn over Michigan in the opener, does look indeed like it would fall into the upset category. And at least you’re picking something against the public grain. Betting action by the public has already seen this line climb from 3 to 4 points with the home Wolverines chalk. Fading that qualifies as predicting an upset.

But really, the post should have just been titled Summer Predictions Of The Most Important Big 10 Games since it takes a healthy stab at most of the games involved in the Ohio State-Iowa-Wisconsin-Penn State round robin that ought to determine the champion. But it’s not revealing any upsets of shattering proportions. You’re probably calling what really amounts to 2.5, maybe 3, upsets. I can name that tune in three games. Here’s a trio from my summer, somewhat run-stained crystal ball that would truly qualify as an upset spoiler:

Michigan over Notre Dame…….The Irish are 7-point favorites on their home field. That spells trouble for Notre Dame. The underdog in this series has won more games outright than the favorite since 1978. The puppy routinely plays among its best games of the season in this matchup. If you’re doing a post to keep people alerted to prime upset spots on the Big 10 calendar, you really should always highlight whomever is catching points in this classic. It’s like answering the phone without saying hello. The last time Notre Dame won as a favorite in this series, it was 1982 and the Milwaukee Brewers were the best team in the American League. Rodriguez has delivered a September win for the ages each of his first two years. Why not a third one in this spot? Will it finally be a signal of true good times ahead or, like the last two years, a total tease? Savvy readers of HTTV will note in that publication I called this the most dangerous looking, winnable game on the slate. Now I’m calling for an upset. Well, the former prediction has everything to do with the shakes I get born from a lifetime of experiences watching Michigan teams play in South Bend. But having since seen the team as such significant underdogs makes me feel easier about this game given the series history.

Michigan State over Iowa….these clubs played some classics in the mid-1980s. They’ve reprised those dramatics in each of the last three seasons. Three games decided by a total of 12 points. In chronological order:  an overtime game, an outcome determined on a critical fourth down stop on a certain scoring drive in the final minute and a touchdown pass on the final play of the game. The Spartans have come out on the wrong end of two of those. But, they’ll even the score here. Hey, the thriller they’ve won in this stretch was in Iowa City, so the core of this team knows how to win in this stadium. Kirk Cousins is going to have a tremendous season and will deliver one upheaval-of-the-conference-standings upset on his arm alone. As dominant as Iowa has been at times at home, they’ve developed a habit of having at least one home clunker a season. Well, one that actually results in a loss. Iowa scores late to revive hopes for Kinnick magic, but Keshaun Martin takes the ensuing kickoff back a whole mess of yards to put the lead back up to two scores. The Hawks are 7.5-point favorites in this one, but see another dream season suffer a wakeup call at home.

Northwestern over Penn State……... A classic sandwich game with the Lions playing the lowly, working on luck Northwestern Wildcats a week after they play Michigan and a week before they play Ohio State. Given the uncertain, yet bordering on probably bad, quarteback situation in Happy Valley, you know Penn State is going to lose at least once this season in a game most boosters have already tucked away in the win column. Like this one. Overlook Northwestern at your own risk. Yes, I know PSU avoided this same sandwich trap against the same oppponent wedged  between games against the same rivals. But, does Penn State have the steady offensive hand of Dayrl Clark to lean to get through challenging motivational spots like this?No, they dont.  NW QB Dan Persa will find the going easier this go around against the Nittany Lion D that probably wont be as foreboding. He was an emergency player that day due to an injury. He’ll be better against this defense on sheer experience. Penn State just wont have a vintage year when its all said and done. They’re going to knocked around a lot early. They’ll turn things around in October and a good win over an emerging Michigan program will actually signal a call to beat OSU and take over the Big 10 race the following week. Before they know it, they’ll be in a tangle with the Wildcats in a game that goes all the way down to the wire. Fitzgerald is 14-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less as head coach at Northwestern. He’ll add to that legend in this one.

BONUS NON CONFERENCE UPSET!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(Well, for now its still non conference. Week 3 will give us an upset in the Pacific Northwest.)

Washington over Nebraska……..Steve Sarkisian will get another signature upset during his tenure in Seattle. As for heading out west and losing to a Pac 10 club, consider that your first Big 10 initiation rite, ‘Brasker. Take it like a man. Welcome to the club.