They thought Lawson was a handful...

#2 Thunder vs. #3 Lakers (Series 2-1 OKC)

Ranks: OKC #2 offense vs. LA #14 defense, LA #10 offense vs. OKC #9 defense

What you need to know about this series can be summed up thusly: the Thunder took the season series despite playing two of the three games in Los Angeles, and likely would have won the third, had Ron Artest not knocked James Harden out for the game.

Lets start with the positive for the Lakers – interior defense. The Laker front line, with Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol, Ron Artest (mammoth for a small forward), with Jordan Hill off the bench generally makes life miserable for opposing front-courts.  Furthermore, the Lakers should be able to generate a number of extra possessions on the glass – they’re the third best offensive-rebounding team in the NBA (the best remaining in the playoffs), and the Thunder don’t really excel at protecting their own glass. OKC is also vulnerable to turning the ball over, figuring to give the Lakers even more possessions. The mitigating factors here are that the Thunder don’t look to their post players for virtually any of their offense to begin with, and the Lakers, the worst team in the NBA at forcing turnovers, may not be able to generate many from the magnanimous Thunder.

The rest is downhill for Los Angeles. The Lakers just watched Ty Lawson spring for 19 points a game on 51% shooting, with four 20+ point games, and three struggles. Simply, when Bynum was awake, and making his rotations, Lawson played badly because his layups got spiked into the stands after the pathetic Laker perimeter defense allowed him into the lane. The bad news for Los Angeles is that Russell Westbrook is faster, stronger, and a better finisher than Lawson – Bynum will get his blocks, but Westbrook should have a larger impact than Lawson did.

Further, in three games against OKC this year, Kobe Bryant has shot 30.6% from the floor, and 39% over the past three seasons – Thabo Sefalosha is the closest thing to a “Kobe-stopper” in the NBA, and James Harden has excelled at marking Bryant as well. Bryant will take his shots – but if he’s only connecting at that rate, it spells trouble for the Lakers. Meanwhile, Perkins is one of the few players that can physically keep Bynum away from the hoop. Gasol should be able to use his strength to succeed against Ibaka, but that’s about the only place the Lakers figure to match up well.

Have we mentioned Kevin Durant? The Lakers don’t have anyone with a prayer of marking him.

Prediction: 4-1, Thunder.

Stephen Jackson doesn't think much of Fantasy Basketball

#1 Spurs vs. #4 Clippers (Series 2-1 Spurs)

Ranks: #1 Spurs offense vs. #18 Clippers defense, #4 Clippers offense vs. #11 Spurs defense

The Spurs have won fourteen straight games, by an average margin of seventeen points, including 20+ point wins over the Lakers twice, the Grizzlies, and a 32 point win over the Jazz. They are, in short, the hottest team in the NBA. The Clippers, on the other hand, are 10-7 in the same stretch of time (by virtue of playing 3 additional playoff games), and have been playing nip & tuck with their opposition the entire way.

Further extenuating the Clippers relative struggles are that, simply, they got out-played in the first round, and were fortunate to escape – over the course of the seven game series, they were out-scored.

The match-ups here, frankly, are ugly. The Clippers bring the league’s 2nd worst three-point shooting defense against the best three-point shooting team in the NBA. The Clippers’ starting front-court of Blake Griffin and Deandre Jordan, simply, should not be able to stay on the floor defensively against any combination of the Spurs deep front-court. The Clippers do have solid defensive alternatives in Reggie Evans and Kenyon Martin, but removing Griffin removes one of only two players who has been scoring for them lately.

On the other side of the ledger, the Clippers do have some advantages. Despite having an array of offensive front-court players, the Spurs really only have a single quality defender, in Duncan – expect to see his rests coincide with Griffin’s. In the back-court, they really don’t have any exceptional defenders, and Chris Paul should enjoy a significant advantage over anyone that attempts to guard him.

In all, this should be a fun series, with two teams that prize offense over defense. The key match-up, really, should be Griffin and the refs against Duncan. Griffin shoots more foul shots than all but a few players in the NBA, thanks to his histrionic flopping – these calls removed Zach Randolph from the game for long stretches at a time. Duncan, on the other hand, is still an elite defender, and the Spurs as a collective foul less than all but one team in the NBA. If Griffin is not a consistent 20-point threat, the Clippers, frankly, probably can’t win a game. The Spurs will hope Duncan can limit him, and when he’s not there, that their deep front-court makes the Clippers pay for his poor defense. Without Griffin’s offense, this lineup turns into Paul, and a bunch of three-point shooters. Look to the Spurs to wrap this up quickly.

Prediction: 4-1 Spurs.

Depite this happening only a week ago, Rondo is the healthiest of the Celtic stars

#4 Celtics vs. #8 76ers (Series 2-1 76ers)

Ranks: Celtics #24 offense vs. 76ers #3 defense, 76ers #17 offense vs. Celtics #2 defense

If the Spurs/Clippers matches up two of the league’s best offenses, this series is the opposite – the two ugliest offenses matching up against two of the NBA’s best defenses, and the two best shooting defenses. In other words, that first game is representative of what we’ll see from here on out. If this matchup seems familiar, it’s because it’s extremely similar to the one the 76ers faced against a Rose-less Bulls team, down to a near-identical defense.

The 76ers succeeded against the Bulls by locking down a team with limited offensive weapons, and successfully running off of missed shots – something they’ll need to replicate against an older, creakier team than the Bulls. When they got stuck in the half-court, things tended to stagnate and bog down, unless Spencer Hawes was making mid-range shots. Against the Celtics, that may prove more difficult – Kevin Garnett is still one of the best defensive players in the league, and while Omer Asik is good, he’s not on the same level.

The question is whether the Celtics can muster more offense than the meager amount the 76ers will. The talent is there – Garnett, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce are all more than capable offensive players, the problem is that injuries and inconsistency has kept that group from excelling throughout the year. A mid-year juggle of the lineups has the Celtics playing close to league-average offense, but that means they’re really only about as good as the Sixers.

This series should, really, be closer than most expect. The Celtics have bigger names, and a significantly more impressive resume, but these are largely creaky older players mostly battling nagging injuries. The Sixers aren’t that talented, but they are healthy. Expect the Celtics to pull it out based on experience and overwhelming talent, but this should be close. And ugly.

Prediction: 4-3 Celtics.

In a year, the hairline will dictate that his headband be completely vertical

#2 Heat vs. #3 Pacers (Series 3-1 Heat)

Ranks: #6 Heat offense vs. #10 Pacer defense, #8 Pacer offense vs. #4 Miami defense

With the now questionable presence of Chris Bosh, this series has somewhat opened for the Pacers – a team that revolves around post players Roy Hibbert and David West. The Pacers are among the best rebounding teams in the NBA, while the Heat are largely mediocre – their best rebounder is Lebron James. Moreover, the Heat don’t figure to have anyone capable of getting in the way of Hibbert and West – again, the two best shot-blockers are James and Dwayne Wade.

It would be easy to say that losing Bosh will allow the Heat to divert more resources to James and Wade, but that duo tends to score no matter what the defense deploys. Without Bosh, however, there is precious little here, and the Heat are going to need to find an additional 15-20 points a game from a cadre of limited players.

The Pacers, on the other hand, badly need their talented wing players – Paul George and Danny Granger, to perform. The duo was stymied in the first game (2/15 shooting), and they need to shoot well in order for the post duo to operate.  During the regular season, Granger, George, George Hill, and Leandro Barbosa made 37% of their threes – enough to keep the defense honest. The Pacers really only have a single point-guard on the roster (Darren Collison), and only play him for about 20 minutes – the offense is built to run inside-out, and for the post players to find open shooters – if they can’t shoot, they don’t stand a chance.

Prediction: 4-2 Heat

We still have more than 100 days to go before the first real football game of the upcoming season begins, but there are already plenty of odds to chew on. Over at 5dimes they’ve  got a handful of season props including a small menu of college football win totals (Michigan isnt on the board yet, but MSU, OSU and Notre Dame have been set at O/U 8.5 wins) as well as championship odds for all six BCS conferences. Sportsbook.com has odds on all eight NFL divisions and for several weeks now have had spreads for the eventual Week One NFL slate.  The big news within the last week was Cantor Gaming releasing pointspreads for every NFL game this season. Cantor runs the books at Vegas casinos such as Venetian, Tropicana and the M, so presumably you can already bet any NFL game this season in their sportsbooks. Other than Week One lines at sportsbook.com, I havent seen any of these games available online yet.

I’ve got a few posts upcoming looking into those NFL numbers, but for today I wanted to talk college football. By this time next month, we ought to have game lines for a similar amount of college football games. But the aforementioned 5Dimes has a list up of 10 games from the opening week of the college season. Before looking at any of the odds available for the college or pro game, I just wanted to quickly zip through the college games that are easily available to bet on right now if you were so inclined. All these games are from the first weekend of the season August 30-September 3.

Taj Gibson and the Bench Mob can probably handle the Sixers on their own

#1 Bulls vs. #8 76ers (Season Series 2-1 Bulls)

Overall Rank: Bulls 1st (+8.8 per game) Sixers 5th (+5.5 per game)

Matchups: Bulls #6 offense vs. Sixers #3 defense, Sixers #17 offense vs. Bulls #1 Defense 

Post-Break Record: Bulls 23-8, Sixers 15-17

The second-half of the season saw Philadelphia fall from leading the Atlantic Division of the Eastern Conference to finishing third, and falling from the second seed in the conference to the eighth – it’s been a brutal month and a half. Their qualities are essentially the same – this is still a lock-down defense (the fourth best since the break) that succeeds chiefly by forcing an abysmal shooting performance (3rd best eFG% against in the NBA),  rarely fouling, and protecting their defensive glass (they’re the 4th best defensive rebounding team). Further, as the best ball-security team in the NBA, they limit easy points off of turnovers. In essence: they make life extremely difficult on an offense, freebies and second chances are virtually eliminated, and, according to Hoopdata’s “expected shooting percentage”, they force the opposition into difficult shots better than any team in the NBA.

The irony is that Philadelphia plays offensively the way their defense forces opponents to play. According to expected shooting percentage, they take the most difficult shots in the league (and thus are a poor shooting team), are worst in the league at getting to the line, are one of the poorest offensive rebounding clubs, and their lack of turnovers on the defensive end gets them vanishingly few easy baskets. This is the basketball equivalent of the Ravens – they’ll shut down the offense, and hope that enough of Louis Williams’ and Igoudala’s desperate tosses go down.

Against a team like the Bulls, that simply won’t be enough. The Bulls finished the second-half of the season with the NBA’s second best record over the stretch, despite playing more than half the games without reigning MVP Derrick Rose. During that stretch, the Bulls beat the Sixers twice, both without Rose. The Bulls aren’t a great offensive team – despite ranking 6th overall, that performance is nearly completely generated on the offensive glass – they’re the best offensive rebounding club in the league, more than doubling the efficiency of the next best team. But the combination of the Bulls #1 defense (they are nearly a carbon-copy of Philadelphia’s in terms of statistical profile, just better) and the moribund Sixer offense is all you need to know –  the Bulls can win this series through the play of defensive stalwarts like Luol Deng, Ronnie Brewer, Taj Gibson, and Joakim Noah – Rose’s offense is just gravy.

Prediction: 4-0 Bulls.

Shump's gonna Shump. By which, we mean, be disruptive.

#2 Heat vs. #7 Knicks (Season Series 3-0 Heat)

Overall Rank: Heat 3rd (+7.8 per game) Knicks 10th (+2.7 per game)

Matchups: Heat #5 offense vs. Knicks #5 defense, Knicks #19 offense vs. Heat #4 Defense 

Post-Break Record: Heat 19-13, Knicks 19-12

This series should be far more competitive than it initially appears. Despite being 19-12 since the break, the Knicks are 18-7 in their final 25 games, making them one of the hottest teams in the NBA. Moreover, since the break, the Knicks have actually had the NBA’s 3rd best offense, despite still ranking 19th on the season (their defense is actually slightly worse over this time). Largely, this is attributable to a sea-change in offensive strategy. Since Mike Woodson took the reigns of the club, the Knicks went from playing, on average, 98 possession games (over the course of the year, this would be the most in the league) to 92 possession games (one of the 6 fewest). In other words – they’ve radically slowed down on offense, and shot a significantly higher percentage from the floor (Carmelo Anthony is scoring roughly the same on three fewer shots a game). People tout Coach Woodson’s defense (and when Tyson Chandler plays, it’s fearsome), but it’s unimproved from a points-per-possession perspective since Dantoni left.

The Heat, on the other hand, have stumbled, by their standards, playing roughly equivalent to the Knicks over the second-half. As a matter of fact, once you account for the Knicks improved offense of late – the two teams have near identical statistical profiles. Both teams live off forcing high turnover rates (they are 2nd and 3rd in the NBA), getting to the line (Knicks are 4th, Miami 7th), and efficient shooting. Both teams are league average on both sides of the glass, and both are turnover prone.

Simply: this figures to be a deceptively brutal series for the Heat. Without having a center worth paying attention to, Tyson Chandler will be free to guard Chris Bosh, and Iman Shumpert has grown defensively to the point that he stands as good a chance as anyone at containing Dwayne Wade. The Heat certainly have bigger names, but their roster is abysmal outside of the Big Three. The Knicks also seem like the more functional team in the half-court, given the Heat’s constant struggles to score when they aren’t running. Combine the crunch-time performances of Carmelo and Lebron, and you have yet another reason for the Heat to worry. I don’t think the Heat lose this series, but I’d expect a battle.

Paul George just heard that he'd be guarded by Jason Richardson and JJ Redick

Prediction: 4-3 Heat.

#3 Pacers vs. #6 Magic (Season Series 2-1 Magic)

Overall Rank: Pacers 8th (+3.1 per game) Magic 15th (+0.9 per game)

Matchups: Pacers #8 offense vs. Magic #13 defense, Magic #15 offense vs. Pacers #10 Defense

Post-Break Record: Pacers 21-12, Magic 15-16

To put it simply, this isn’t much of a series. Even before Dwight Howard decided he publicly didn’t want to play for Van Gundy, instead of privately grousing, the Magic were a foundering club. Without him, they depend on a slumping Ryan Anderson, and Jameer Nelson. Both are nice players, but neither would nor should be confused for the best player on a playoff team. The Magic have gotten by on three things this year – rebounding margin (3rd best in the NBA), drawing fouls, and shooting percentage. The foul shot attempts and rebounding are completely driven by Howard, and the shooting percentage is largely attributable to the 57% shooter. In other words, they have nothing.

It’s unfortunate – the Pacers struggle on their defensive glass, and are profligate foulers. Ordinarily, this would be a good match-up. Now, expect the deep front line of Hibbert, West, and Hansbrough to bludgeon a starting front-court that contains Glenn Davis into submission, then giggle as Hedo and Jason Richardson “guard” dynamic wing players Danny Granger and Paul George.

Prediction: 4-1 Pacers.

Someone just asked Paul how much he likes isolations in crunch-time

#4 Hawks vs. #5 Celtics (Season Series 2-1 Celtics)

Overall Rank: Hawks 6th (+3.6 per game) Celtics 7th (+3.3 per game)

Matchups: Hawks #16 vs. Celtics #2 defense, Celtics #24 offense vs. Hawks #6 Defense

Post-Break Record: Hawks 19-12, Celtics 25-10

On paper, this seems like it should be the closest matchup of the first round – the teams finished with nearly identical records and efficiency margins,  both posting mediocre-to-poor offenses and excellent defenses. On the court, I don’t think it will be particularly close.    Since moving Kevin Garnett to center, and placing Avery Bradley in the starting lineup, the Celtics offense has improved to league average, and their defense has actually gotten better as well (0.93 points per possession, which would be the best in the NBA over the entire season).

With Garnett at Center, the Celtics are susceptible to teams with strong offensive centers, but with Al Horford a scratch, the Hawks don’t have one of those.  Moreover, this Hawks team hasn’t manged to elevate it’s level of play for four consecutive playoff appearances – matching up against a core of Celtics who have played in two NBA finals is less than ideal. The Hawks may take a game or two, but we’re riding the hot hand, and the playoff experience.

Prediction: 4-2 Celtics.

He's still really good

As the season slowly shakes out, much of the playoff drama has worked itself out. The top four seeds in each conference are basically written in stone, with the only remaining drama being a shootout for the Western conference’s top-seed. With the eastern conference’s slate largely set, the only question remaining is at the bottom of the Western Conference, where the Phoenix Suns, Houston Rockets, and Utah Jazz all sit with the same number of losses going into the season’s final week. To most, eight-seeds are an after thought, but a year after the eighth seeded Grizzlies dominated the Spurs, and a second half that has seen one team in contention post the second-best post-break record in the NBA, all bets are off.

Who will make it? Who can make some noise if they do? We break it down:

The Houston Rockets

The Rockets currently sit 1/2 a game out of the playoffs by virtue of having one more game left on their schedule than the Utah Jazz. Scraping through a season ending injury to Kyle Lowry and a potentially season-ending injury to Kevin Martin, two of their three best players, the Rockets have stayed in the playoff race. During the course of the season, the Rockets have probably been the best of the three teams in contention, outscoring their competition by a full point every 100 possessions. That being said – due to the injuries to Lowry and Martin, this isn’t the same team that played the entire season. New point guard Goran Dragic has effectively replaced Lowry (18.6 points, 8.4 assists, 50% shooting), but Courtney Lee has been a poor replacement for even the inefficient Martin, shooting under 40% from the floor.

The Rockets are 11-16 since the All-Star Break, 4-6 in their last ten, and losers of five straight – they’ve essentially played themselves to the brink of elimination. The schedule is manageable – a home and away with the lowly Hornets, and a home game against the Warriors along with a likely loss on the road to Miami (with a loss tonight to the Bulls, the Heat would almost certainly be resting their stars in this game). But nothing about the Rockets recent performance suggests they can turn this ship around.

Of the three teams, the Rockets are likely also the least likely to do any damage in the first round. Setting aside their recent slide, they are the worst offensive team of the three, and thus not positioned to take advantage of the Spurs’ iffy defense. The Rockets have split their season series with the Thunder, but given the season-long free-throw disparity between the two teams (the Thunder attempt 6.5 more per 100 possessions than their opponent, the Rockets attempt 3 less than their opponents), the Rockets need to play near-perfect to beat the Thunder.

Phoenix Suns

The Suns, on the other hand, are red-hot, going 18-9 since the break, out-scoring their opponents by 3.5 points per 100 possessions, and have one 6 of their last ten. Looking at the roster, it’s almost impossible to figure out how – it’s basically Steve Nash, Marcin Gortat, and a little help from Jared Dudley – their 4-10 is the worst in playoff contention. What the Suns have done, simply, is shoot – they’re the 8th best shooting team in the NBA, and the 3rd best since the break. Between them, Nash, Gortat, and Dudley shoot 52.9% from the floor and 41.8% from three. According to adjusted +/- numbers, Nash, even in his depleted state, is the 7th best player in the league, and the 2nd best offensive player – the difference he makes when he’s on the floor is inarguable.

The issue is the schedule – the Suns play four games, three against playoff teams (the Clippers, Denver, and San Antonio), and a fourth against the Jazz – a rival for the 8th slot. It’s conceivable that the Spurs are resting in their final game, but with them in a virtual tie for the #1 seed, it’s hard to imagine that. Simply, the Suns have the hardest path to the playoffs – if they make it, they earned it (and Stern should give Nash his playoff bust on the sport for leading this roster to the playoffs).

Can they do damage? Against the Spurs, yes. The Spurs are a marginally below average defensive team that gets destroyed from three, and the Suns are a very good offensive team that shoots a ton of threes. The Suns don’t have the tools to slow the Spurs down, but they can possibly outscore them, which is the best way to beat them. Further, the Suns greatest weakness is defensive rebounding – which the Spurs, a terrible offensive rebounding team, can’t take advantage of.

Utah Jazz

The Jazz strength is simple – they have a deep, effective front-court, and they pound the offensive glass better than anyone other than Chicago. The Jazz rotate five players through their two front-court slots (Al Jefferson, Paul Milsap, Enes Kanter, Derrick Favors, and DeMare Carroll), and reap 13 offensive rebounds a game from the tandem. If you said “that’s a lot of rebounds!”, you’re right, just as you are if you said “that’s a lot of power forwards!” – and therein lies the problem. The Jazz don’t really have a true center on the roster (Enes Kanter possibly qualifies), and no true shot-blocker.

The Jazz have gone a respectable 18-13 since the break, and have won 6 of their last 10. The schedule, home games against the Howard-less Magic, the Suns, and the Trailblazers is largely favorable. In other words – with a game in hand, a decent trend, and a favorable schedule, this is your favorite for the playoffs.

Can they do damage? It’s hard to see them matching up with the Spurs. Skilled interior offensive players like Tim Duncan, Tiago Splitter, and DeJuan Blair will find nobody that can discourage them from shooting. The Spurs primary defensive weakness is from long-range, but the Jazz make fewer threes than any team in the NBA – it’s a bad matchup. Against the Thunder, things are a bit kinder – the Thunder aren’t a great rebounding team in general, and rebounding is the chief attribute of the Jazz. If the Thunder grab the top seed – this is the potential team they’d want to see the least.

ROAD TEAMS, UNDERDOGS SKATING AWAY WITH HUGE PROFITS

Five days into the Stanley Cup Tournament and underdogs and road teams are dominating, producing a windfall for those playing them. Through 19 games since the tournament began last Wednesday, the road team is 11-8. Had you put $100 on the odds of each road team during this run, you’d be up $696. The profit margin is larger had you been selecting underdogs on the blind. The underdog is 13-6 through last night games, turning a crisp $1140 profit had you been putting $100 down on each on. The upshot? All eight series have seen home ice flip, including the Detroit/Nashville series where its already flipped back to the Preds, owner of original home ice in the series. Seven games have already played into overtime and just about every series looks razor thin between the combatants skating. The marathon aspects of those series kick in this week, but you have to think we’ve got a handful of Game 7′s coming right at us. The question? Will the road teams and underdogs continue to score big for hockey bettors? Probably not. The Books have already adjusted. In the three games tonight, there isnt a team with serious underdog odds. In fact, all three are basically coin flips: Rangers, -120, at Ottawa, even; Bruins, -125 at Washington, +105; and St Louis, -110 at San Jose, -110. The Blues and Sharks late nighter is basically even on each side. Ottawa and Washington are slight home underdogs, which will force bettors to decide which dominating trend–the underdog or the road team–that they want to side with this evening. I say pass and just enjoy the hockey. But thats just me.

BRENDAN SHANAHAN’S CONFUSING WEEKEND

Do you get the feeling Brendan Shanahan is a little overwhelmed right now? The former all star, power winger is now in charge of meting out playoff disciplne out of the league’s offices. If you’ve been watching the hockey, then you know that he not only has his hands full, but his decisions have universally raised eyebrows. I guess in a way, I cant blame Shany. This has got to be stunning. I’ve been a religous watcher of the NHL playoffs my whole life and dont recall a chippier start to the festivities. Using the adjective chippy is an understatement. Fights have been breaking out and nobody is shying away from sending a message with their fists, sticks or lineups. The line of quality, physical play has been repeatedly crossed during the first round action so far. I am afraid of an international incident breaking out along the northern New York border as the Rangers/Senators series moves north tonight to the Canadien Capital. The key to this series has suddenly become physicality. Sens Coach Paul Maclean put out a grudge match lineup and turned Game 2 of the series into a literal barbaric slugfest. I think he would have suited Racki up if he could have. It worked as the Sens evened the series to bring home ice back to Canada, but the thuggery works both ways and one of the game’s casulaties was Senator sniper Daniel Alfredson, injured by the revenge-filled elbow of Carl Hagelin. But this has been going on in rinks throughout the playoffs. The Red Wings Todd Bertuzzi could run for Mayor of Detroit, or at least emergency financial manager, after fighting Predators cheap shot artist Shea Weber. Gloves were dropped and sweaters clutched at the end of the first and second periods in the San Jose-St Louis game Saturday night. Then there’s the bad blood in the Flyers/Penguins series, which began–at least the current day version of it–with a pair of physical matches in the final week of the regular season that easily carried over to this playoff series. It reached a pinnacle yesterday with not only Sidney Crosby getting in fights, but instigating them. In the league offices, Shanahan has suspended Hagelin for three games for his elbow to Alfredson. Ottawa’s Matt Carkner did get a game on the sidelines for his own ambush attack in the Rangers/Senators free-for-all Saturday night. But Weber was only levelled a weak fine for pile driving Henrik Zetterberg’s face into the boards and Pttsburgh’s Aaron Asham has yet to hear word on what will happen to him after cross checking somebody in the throat in a blatant, misguided attempt at revenge after a big hit. Maybe Shanahan feels getting swept out of the playoffs will be punishment enough for Asham. When the weekend began, Shanahan was taking heat for his soft approach on Weber. By the end of the weekend, we’re wondering if Shanahan’s inconsistent meting out of punishments wont completely drive the playoffs out of control. At this point, I’d be surprised if we get out of the first round without several other fight starting incidents. It’s entertaining, even if it drives some casual fans away.

RIP CONFERENCE AND CUP FAVORITES

Six series look like it could build up bad blood all the way through a seventh and deciding game. Two series, however, look to be ending early and sit at 3-0 leads with series sweeps on the line in the next game. The kicker there being its two of the favorites to take the Stanley Cup facing the 3-game holes. The Penguins were the betting chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. at +350 to win the Cup, but their defense and goaltender have been dominated by the Flyers.  After allowing eight goals for the second straight game, the end is almost near for the high flying Pens. We’re beyond gut check time for Pittsburgh, but the problem is this is a just bad matchup for the Pens. And its not helping their cause that Marc Andre Fleury has turned into a slow, confused sieve who gives us big rebounds like its his job. Pens Coach Dan Bylsma might have waited one period too long before replacing him in between the pipes. But this Flyer team is relentess, every bit as high octane as the Pens, but with some defensive acumen to go along with it. Claude Giroux is blossoming into an elite player and  the line he centers with Scott Hartnell and Jaromir Jagr might be the best in the game. Let that sink in, Jaramir Jagr might be on the best line in hockey. What is this, the mid-1990s? He’s been burning his former team so far in this series. The Pens depth at center was all the rage when the series began, but the Flyers have rendered both Evgeni Malkin’s and Jordan Staahl’s lines non existent. Everything is rolling for the Flyers, they’ve even baiting Sid the Kid Crosby to start fights after the whistles.The Flyers have the Pens playing goonball with Crosby, James Neal and Aaran Ashram all spinning the cheap shot roulette wheel. The Pens arent just losing a shot at the Cup in this series, but they’re losing respect from NHL observers in the process.  Out West, the Vancouver Canucks were the betting favorites to win the conference. Unlike the Pens, they were also the top-seed in the conference. Three games later, they face the same 0-3 hole as the Pens. Heading into their series with the Kings, everyone knew that LA would have an edge in between the pipes. And thats pretty much played out and been the difference in this series. Vancouver’s Roberto Loungo was benched after a pair of 4-2 losses, but last night in Game 3 the Kings’ Jonathan Quick shut out the Canucks. It didnt matter that Vancouver replacement goalie Cory Schneider allowed just a single goal. It was one too many as the Kings took total control of this series. Vancouver really misses the offense of Daniel Sedin whose missed all of the series so far with a concussion, and their power play has been dying a slow death the whole second half of the season. That’s the fine line, really. When your best offensive gun is out and the other team has the better goalie, it doesnt matter what your seed is, you will be in trouble in the Stanley Cup Tournament. Besides, the Kings arent your typical #8 seed. They had control of the Pacific Division and #3 seed until losses in the final week of the regular season pushed them down in the standings. Its no surprise  the Kings and Flyers have pushed the proverbial Cup favorites. It is a surprise that both have been pushed to the brink of elimination on the wrong end of series sweeps. The Pens and Canucks have fallen from Cup favorites to 25/1 and 30/1 longshots respectively. Taken over the role of chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. are the likely Penguin vanquishers themselves, the Flyers. Phily now sits at 4/1 to win the Cup after beginning the tournament as 12/1. After them, its the Rangers, 5/1; Predators, 7/1; Kings, 7/1; and the defending champion Bruins, 8/1.

PREDS/WINGS WINNER, THE NEW WESTERN CHALKChalk is another name for the favorite team to win.?

Meanwhile, the best series of the bunch has been the Nashville/Detroit set. All three games have ended in 3-2 scores. The Preds took Game 1, the Wings took Game 2 and the Preds answered back with a Game 3 win. Yesterday’s game was the Pavel Dasyuk show. He might have been the best skater in any of the four playoff games yesterday and over the final period and a half, the Wings looked like the best team among the teams in action yesterday. And, they lost. Pekke Rinne stole the show. He might end up stealing this series. This guy has developed into one of the best goalies in the league and this spring might just be the coming out party for the Flying Fin. We’re going to chanel our inner Coach Freddie Jackson, master of  hype, and draw comparisons to Dominek Hasek. But Rinne’s instincts and ability to get a little bit of every shot despite being sprawled on the ice in four different directions does harken back to the Dom’s prime. But the key with Rinne is he’s so tall and big that he just covers so much ground even when he’s pinned on it. He made 39 stops yesterday, half of which seemingly in the third period when the Wings, paced by Dastyuk, threw the proverbial kitchen sink at him. This kid is the real deal and its going to be tough for the Wings, or anybody, to beat him. With Vancoucer on the ropes and pretty much skating with a big fork in their back, I cant shake the feeling that the winner of this series becomes the new Western Conference favorite. And its the Preds, not the Cup savvy Wings, that have control heading into tomorrow night’s game in Detroit.

Enjoy the games tonight.

Ever since this, you've needed help to win a title

The below chart shows the Hall-of-Famers on each of the last 32 NBA Championship rosters – every title contested since the rise of the Larry Bird and Magic Johnson era. Players not yet enshrined have their % likelihood, according to Basketball Reference’s “Hall of Fame Probability” metric listed.

2011 Mavericks: Dirk Nowitzki (98.8%), Jason Kidd (96.2%)

2009-2010 Lakers: Kobe Bryant (100%), Pau Gasol (63%). It should be noted that HOF indicator numbers only take into account a player’s NBA career, not their European or International career, but the HOF does. Gasol, as a FIBA G0ld Medalist, an Olympic Silver Medalist, FIBA MVP, and Euroleague MVP, is prohibitively likely to gain entrance.

2008 Celtics: Paul Pierce (98.4%), Kevin Garnett (99.9%), Ray Allen (93.8%)

2003, 2005, 2007 Spurs: Tim Duncan (100%), Tony Parker (71.3%), David Robinson (2003 only). Parker’s top comparables through his first decade of playing are Hal Greer, Bob Cousy, Earl Monroe, Isaiah Thomas, and Jason Kidd. He seems likely to make it, given that he’s averaged 18.5 points, and 6.5 assists on 49% shooting for a decade, is currently having his best year, and hasn’t turned 30 yet. You could argue that Manu Ginobili, a World and Olympic Champion, and three time Italian league MVP is close to inclusion as well.

2006 Heat: Shaq (100%), Dwayne Wade (99.2%)

2004 Pistons: Rasheed Wallace (51%)

2000-2002 Lakers: Shaq, Kobe Bryant

1999 Spurs: Tim Duncan, David Robinson, Tony Parker

1996-1998 Bulls: Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Dennis Rodman

1994 & 1995 Rockets: Hakeem Olajuwon, Clyde Drexler

1991-1993 Bulls: Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen

1989 & 1990 Pistons: Isaiah Thomas, Joe Dumars, Dennis Rodman

1988, 1987 & 1985 Lakers: Kareem Abdul-Jabar, Magic Johnson, James Worthy

1986 & 1984 Celtics: Larry Bird, Kevin Mchale, Robert Parish, Dennis Johnson

1983 76ers: Moses Malone, Julius Erving

1982 & 1980 Lakers: Kareem Abdul-Jabar, Magic Johnson, Jamaal Wilkes, Bob McAdoo (1982 only)

1981 Celtics: Larry Bird, Robert Parish, Kevin Mchale, Tiny Archibald

What’s the take-away here? Save the 2004 Pistons, who seems to stand a decent chance of not putting a single player in the Hall-of-Fame, every single NBA Champion in the modern era has started a minimum of two Hall-of-Fame players. This, in the trade, is known as a “strong correlation”. The obvious caveat is the “chicken & the egg” theory – are these players Hall of Famers because they won Championships, or did they win Championships because they are Hall of Famers? For instance, it’s hard to see Joe Dumars or Dennis Johnson in the Hall without multiple rings apiece. But the general rule here holds – in order to win the NBA title, your roster needs to be built around at least two Hall-of-Fame players. So what teams in contention this year pass the test? Which contenders fail?

Failing - Bulls, Pacers, Hawks, Magic, 76ers, Bucks, Memphis, Rockets, Nuggets, Suns, Jazz. By our count, there are a total of three players on these teams that stand a reasonable chance of making the Hall of Fame – Derrick Rose, Dwight Howard, and Steve Nash. Basketball Reference doesn’t publish probabilities for players that haven’t notched 400 career regular season games, so Rose doesn’t rank, but Dwight Howard stands at 72% likely with a number of prime years remaining. Steve Nash stands at only 58%, but he’d be the only two-time MVP out of the Hall.

The big name here is the Bulls, with Carlos Boozer sitting at 8%, and Luol Deng sitting at 1%. It should be noted that the one exception to our rule, the Pistons, won mostly due to their equanimity – their wasn’t much of an alpha dog on the team, but just a uniform level of quality throughout the rotation. The Bulls are the deepest team in the NBA, and their winning percentage without Rose would be good enough to get the East’s second seed. They fail the test, but they do share some similarities with the only champion to prove an exception.

Passing with Ease - Only two teams comfortably pass the test – the Miami Heat and Los Angeles Lakers. Both teams have prohibitive HOF favorites – the Heat have James (99.4%), Wade (99.2%), and Bosh (67.9%), while the Lakers have already been covered. These five players all are still at or close to their peaks (Gasol, averaging a 17/10.5 with 1.5 blocks on 51% shooting is poorest performer), and each has two virtual locks for the Hall of Fame. There are no caveats to throw at either club.

Passing, with Caveats - The Celtics, Spurs, and Mavericks all have at least two sure-fire Hall-of-Famers on the roster, but, as some of the most veteran teams in the league, one could persuasively argue that those players have seen their best days pass them by. The Spurs are led by Parker, who is enjoying the best year in his career, but they fall off from that point. Ginobili, a possible inductee, has been injured most of the year, and still hasn’t shaken the rust off his game. Duncan remains as effective as he was six years ago, but his minutes are drastically reduced. He still brings a high-level of quality, but not for long stretches. The Spurs are streaking right now, but many wonder if the veteran core can stay together for the playoffs.

Similarly, the Mavericks really only Dirk Nowitzki playing at a Hall-of-Fame level. Kidd and Vince Carter (81.9%) both seem exceedingly likely to be inducted, but are averaging 15.6 points, 7.4 assists, and 7.2 rebounds on 39.2% shooting between them this year – a stat-line that’s probably worse than anything Kidd produce by himself from 1997 through 2008. Kidd seems to still somewhat matter, but there is little optimism.

The Celtics have won a title with this same core of players, but, like the others, all but Paul Pierce seem to be somewhat off their primes (when your stars start being referred to as “coaches”, that’s code for “old”). A mitigating factor could be Rajon Rondo, who hasn’t played long enough to merit a high score on the HOF indicators, but with a “most similar players through five years” list that features Earl Monroe, Bill Sharman, and Deron Williams, the possibility is certainly there.

Could Go Either Way - An odd case here is the Knicks, with two players who seem somewhat likely to make the Hall (both Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire stand between 60% and 65% likely), but both could feasibly fizzle their chances away from this point forward. Throw-in Stoudemire’s extreme injury problems, how they’ve hampered him this year, and his outlook going forward, the Knicks are likely best disregarded.

Too Soon to Tell – As noted, Basket-Reference doesn’t calculate probabilities until a player has played 400 regular season games – which means that Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Blake Griffin are still rather large question marks. We can safely assume that Chris Paul (83.9%) will see his name enshrined one day, however. But, let’s look at this trio’s most similar players at this point in their careers:

Durant: Spencer Haywood, Karl Malone, Dirk Nowitzki, Grant Hill, Charles Barkley, Paul Pierce, Cliff Hagan, Elgin Baylor. That’s six Hall-of-Famers, one player who had a HOF career derailed by injury (Hill), and an 8th whose HOF career was derailed by drugs and an overwhelming urge to murder his coach.

Westbrook: Among others, Isaiah Thomas, Earl Monroe, George Gervin.

Griffin is too young to have any comparables at this point, but safe to say that career averages of a 21/11 on 52% shooting certainly hasn’t taken the Hall off the table.

So what have we learned? The biggest takeaway, as it turns out, is probably to somewhat discount the Bulls, despite them holding the league’s best record. The “test” obviously doesn’t differentiate between the teams that pass, but can be a useful means of eliminating the chaff. The Heat, Thunder, and Spurs, as three of the top four records, are unsurprising, as are the red-hot Celtics.

The Buckeyes are the #2 team in the KenPom rankings, equipped with the nation’s 7th most efficient offense and 2nd most efficient defense. As you could guess from those numbers, they do almost everything in a high end manner. Turnover margin is one of this team’s bread and butter. They only turn it over on 17.5 percent of thier possessions, while forcing turnovers at a 22.4 percent rate. It adds up to the 24th best turnover margin in the country. The road map to beating the Bucks demands protecting the basketball and not get crushed on points given up on turnovers. With Sullinger and Deshaun Thomas leading the way, the Bucks hit on 53.3 percnet of their 2-point shots, 11th best nationally, and they own the defensive glass evidenced by the #2 in the nation 24.8 defensive rebounding percentage. So the Bucks are great at scoring extra possessions for themselves via the turnover and limiting extra chances for their opposition by not only not turning it over but by turning your offense into a one shot and done special. That is a damn hard formula to beat when the Bucks are clicking. About the only thing this team doesnt do well is shoot the three-ball with any consistency. drilling just 33.2% of their shots from behind the arc, “good” for 223rd best in the land. William Buford’s season long shooting slump probably accounts for at least 100 spots in that ranking. But when you’ve got Sullinger and Thomas lethal from 18-feet on in, a point guard like Aaron Craft and an elite defense, one man’s slump, even season long, can be worked through.

Ohio State has a lot of talent, but they pretty much rely on their starting five. Sullinger, Thomas, Buford and Craft all log more than 30 minutes a game. The fifth starter Lenzelle Smith runs more than 25 minutes a game. Nobody else on the team gets more than 11 minutes a game. Bench players Ed Ravenel, Sam Thompson and Shannon Scott have played in all 38 games but combine for just 6.8 points per game.

There are eleven former 5-star recruits, per Rivals, playing in this Final Four. Kentucky has six of them on their roster. Ohio State is next in line with three. Sullinger and Thomas earned 5-star bonafides as part of the 2010 class, but who is the other? If you said Buford, then you win the prize. He had the heady 5-star tag coming out of Toledo and was part of the Buckeyes 7-man 2008 recruiting class that included BJ Mullens, who bolted to the pros after one year, William Orfutt, who transferred to Ohio U, and Terrelle Pryor, who played football en route to a tattoo art degree. Craft, whose developed into one of best perimeter defenders in the country and Smith were 3-star guard recruits that arrivied in the Sullinger/Thomas class a year ago. The interesting thing about OSU is how guru approved their benchwarmers are, despite their low usage thus far in their careers. Matta has a quintet a 4-star recruits in their second or first year with the program who barely play: Jordan Sibert, a shooting guard from the 2010 class and current freshmen point guard Scott, forwards Sam Thompson and LaQuinton Ross and center Amir Williams. Williams played more in the first half against Syracuse in the regionals than he had in two months subbing in for Sullinger and Ravenel, both shackled with foul trouble. It will be interesting to see who from this group elevates into legit Big 10 players and which ones bust out. With Buford departing and the likely early NBA entry of Sullinger and Thomas, combined with the fact that OSU doesnt have a single recruit from the 2009 or 2012 classes on the roster to lean on, these players will be relied upon in a big roles next year.

Its not just the sportswriters and coaches ranking Kentucky as the top team. So too does KenPom as the Cats are the top team in his ranking system, armed with the 2nd most efficient offense and 11th most efficient defense in the land. I would have guessed those rankings to be flip-flopped somewhat because what makes this team so hard to beat is how difficult it is to score and run your offense against them. Defensively, they’re #1 nationally in EFG% holding foes to just 42.1% and 2nd nationally in 2-pt FG D allowing just 40.1%.  The stat of their season is the fact that they get blocks on a bit more than 20 percent of the possessions. Think about that. If you’re playing UK, expect to get your shit stuffed back in your face at least 1 out of every five times down the court. Obviously Anthony Davis and his best in the nation block rate of 13% has a lot to do with that, but dont overlook active forwards Terrance Jones and Michael Kidd Gilchrist who are also among the nation’s leaders in block rate. Its no easy task getting and making good looks against these guys. On offense, the Cats are high percentage and balanced with six guys scoring between 10.0-14.3 points per game. Jones, Davis, Doran Lamb and Darius Miller are among the national leader in individual EFG% and as a team the Cats rank 13th in the country with a 53.8 EFG%. Lamb is an assassin behind the arc nailing more than 47-percent of his treys on the season. They rarely turn the ball over, impressive for a team so reliant on freshman, get to the line a ton and when they do miss shots, they chase missed shots like its their job, evidenced by their 18th nationally 38.9% offensive rebounding percentage. There isnt anything this team cant really do. Except for maybe getting bench production. They pretty much just play six guys, the five underclassmen starters and senior Miller coming off the bench. But that hasnt been a stumbling block for them yet, and I doubt they’ll lose this weekend merely because of a lack of bench.

Oh, and the only other thing they likely wont do well is stick together and play another year as teammates. Everybody is aware of Kentucky’s system under John Calipari: Collect uber-talented recruiting classes, play them all as freshmen, watch them turn pro after one year, repeat. Some have issues with this. I dont. If you want to turn your school into a glorified junior college in the name of winning Final Fours, thats your business. While I dont have a problem with it, I dont think I would enjoy if it was my team. Every program that nets talented players is going to be subjected to losing kids early to the professionals. But this seems to be taking it to another level, and, despite the winning, I’m not sure I would collect a lot of enjoyment out if it were my team. It seems hollow. But different strokes for different folks.

All five starters were former 5-star recruits, each ranked in the overall top-21 nationally. The three freshmen starters–Davis, Kidd-Gilchrist and Marcus Teague–were ranked #2, #3 and #5 overall in this year’s incoming crop of freshmen. Lamb and Jones were 2010 5-star recruits, ranked 13th and 21st respectively overall in their class. Miller, coming off the bench, is a project by comparison. #sarcasm. Not only was he just a 4-star, but he arrived in the class of 2008. He’s been on campus for four seasons. Cleary, he hasnt bought into Cal’s system. #moresarcasm. Since Calipari arrived in Lexington, his three recruiting classes have included 12 5-star and 3 4-star recruits. Only seven of those 15 players remain on the roster (4-star 2010 center Elroy Vargas and 5-star 2011 forward Kyle Wiltjer, who combine for 15 minutes of run time a game, are the other two that are still on the team). The second the Final Four ends the question becomes, how many bolt? The Cats might be starting from scratch a year from now. Vargas and Wiltjer will see their role dramatically increase. But beyond that, it’s back to relying on a new crop of incoming, top end talent from the high school ranks. Calipari already has a pair of mercenaries 5-star recruits inked to come in next year and keep the good times rolling. Archie Goodwin is the #2 overall rated shooting guard in ’12 freshmen class and power forward Alex Poythress is the 19th player overall in the class. The Cats are in hot pursuit  of 6-6 wingman Shabazz Muhammed, the hands down top recruit in this class, as well as fellow 5-star forward Anthony Bennett. There is a lot of talk that Muhammed and Bennett want to play in college together, so Coach Cal and UK might have another quartet of 5-stars rolling into Lexington. While they’re trying to win a national championship this weekend with their current roster, the Cats starting lineup for next year might be predominantly preparing for their senior proms.

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MICHIGAN STATE VS LOUISVILLE. LINES, MSU -5.5, O/U 125

It’s the Big 10 Tournament Champion Michigan State vs the Big East Tournament Champion Louisville when the Spartans and Cardinals meet in regional semifinals this evening. The Spartans had the better overall regular season, finishing atop their conference’s regular season table as well, ripping off winning streaks of 15 and seven games during the campaign en route to their current 29-7 record. Louisville finished in sixth place in the Big East regular season, and their 10-8 league mark doesnt seem to be the mark of a great team during a down year for the league. But they really werent losing to too many bad teams. After a 12-0 start, they lost back to back starts against Georgetown and Kentucky to launch a 2-5 slide over seven games. But since Jan. 21, the Cards have lost just 4 games, twice against Sryacuse and once to Cincinnati and South Florida. And they’ve turned it on in the postseason, winning and covering all six games, earning the Big East Tournament trophy while avenging losses to Marquette, Cincy and Notre Dame along the way. They’re 28-9, and I just dont feel a whole bunch separates these teams. KenPom’s rating feels the gap is wider than what my eyes tell me, listing MSU as the #3 team in his index with the Cards down at #19.  His projections give the Spartans an overwhelmingly 75-percent chance at winning this game, calling for a 65-59, 6-point win for the Green and White.

I think this game will be closer than that. Its a match that can go either way. I expect it to go down to the wire and be a one possession game. Both teams are elite defensive outfits. Per KenPom this is a game between Louisville’s #2 rated D and MSU’s #3 rated D. Translation: Expect this game to have all the hallmarks of a ugly classic Big 10/Big East slugfest. We’ll be lucky to slip into triple digits with the total score unless unlikely guys get hot and go off. Both teams are in the top-5 nationally in EFG% D. Its going to be fascinating watching these teams try to score against one another. I’m not sure I trust a single outside shooter on either club, except for Louisville’s Kyle Kuric. Austin Thornton for MSU might be this game’s next best outside shooter. MSU might need 3-4 long range makes from him to generate enough offense to win, but he’s basically a role player.

My worry for MSU is how their guard play handles the Louisville pressure that forces turnovers 23.1-percent of the time and gets steals on 13.7-percent of the possessions. Can Keith Appling snap out of a season-long funk and not only make shots, but be bold enough to take them? And on the other end of the floor can State’s perimeter D keep the quick Peyton Siva in front of them? Siva is a true boom or bust player, but I am a Siva apologist and he gives the Cards an element MSU doesnt have. At times, he’s made a living at the free throw line and after watching MSU foul LIU and St Louis like it was their job last weekend, I fear this could be a big edge for Louisville. Of course the Spartans have their own mismatches to take advantage of. Namely in the form of one Draymond Green. I feel bad for people who refuse to watch Big 1o basketball. In this case, they’re missing out on watching one of the best college basketball players  in the last decade. This dude can do it all and in a game thats bound to devolve into an ugly slugfest, his ability to do everything from posting up to running the offense as a point forward to knocking down critical jump shots, he will do it and likely be the ultimate difference.  The Cards have to prevent Green from going ballistic if they want to win.  You could make a case that the game’s second best player tonight is the Nix/Payne combo inside for MSU. They help State get easy buckets inside, where they rank 4rth nationally in 2-pt shooting. They pound the glass and along with Green are a big reason MSU stands with a heady 38.6 offensive reboudning percentage. And they work it on defense pacing MSU to blocks on 7.1 percent possessions, good for 38th nationally. Who can the Cards throw out there to combat that?  Gorgui Dieng is a good player for them in the paint, but they’re really limited with their bigs after that.

Here’s the deal. Somebody is winning this game 58-55. Kuric and Siva will give Louisville enough to keep this game close and stay within the Vegas line. In the end, I expect Green to make the winning plays for MSU down the stretch. Spartans win and advance, but dont cover the spread.

FLORIDA VS MARQUETTE. LINES, MARQUETTE -2, O/U 146

The winner of this game moves to Saturday to square off with the winner of the Florida/Marquette nightcap. And with the Vegas total being 21 points higher than the Spartan/Cards match, its obvious everyone is expecting an aesthetically better looking contest. I would advise anyone to not take my opinion of this game to the bank. The Gators and Eagles are two teams that always seem to thwart me. Personally, I like Marquette in this one. Its a coin flip game, the spread is a single two-point bucket with the Eagles as chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win.. They have the best player on the court with Jae Crowder and it doesnt appear the Gators have anybody who can match up with him. Both teams are efficient on offense, but the Eagles appear to be much better on the defensive end. And they’re more profecient at getting to the free throw line. Those points, a better D, and Crowder’s overall game pave the way for a win. KenPom calls for a 1-point Florida win, but I feel he’s projecting the wrong team into the winner’s circle. Marquette advances, setting up a great individual battle on Saturday between he and Green, two of the best, versatile and highly skilled forwards in the country. Green and Crowder were the two best players last weekend and seeing those two play head-to-head is reason enough to pull for MSU and Marquette to survive tonight. That said, we’re still booking Louisville and the 5.5 points against MSU, but will take Marquette on the coin flip line.

SYRACUSE VS WISCONSIN. LINES, SCUSE -3.5, O/U 120

My Big 10 Total Wins Prop goes head to head with my #1 Seed Total Wins Prop. You have to figure with MSU and OSU in better position to win than Wisconsin combined with the fact that we only need two more conference wins as opposed to five wins from the top seeds yet that our allegiances should be with Syracuse on this one. Although either way, we’re closer to winning one of the props with other chances to get closer in the alternative one. We cant lose, right? Well, we’ll try to lose by laying the short number with Syracuse and backing the Orange. I realize the red flags. The Badgers are a nuisiance to play against and lead the nation in scoring defense. Thats not a good matchup for a Cuse offense thats been in love with taking shots since the Carter Administration. But despite KenPom’s season long love with the Badgers ability to take lesser opponents behind the efficiency woodshed, I just dont feel this is close to a vintage Bo Ryan team. They dont have the firepower in this one unless a kid like Rob Wilson goes all HAM again like he did against Indiana in the Big 10 quarterfinals. This game will be low on turnovers, so that is an edge to Wisconsin as the Orange are dominant in transition after miscues. But even with that taken away and without the presence of Fab Melo, I expect Syracuse to still have enough in this one. I joke about the program’s ID as bad shot takers, but this year’s team has some smooth shooters and I feel they’ll have enough stretches shredding the Badgers D that they will eventually tuck away the win. Look for Dion Waters and Kris Joseph to hit clutch second half shots to push the Orange forward. The Orange’s weakness on the boards wont be much of a factor against the Badgers who dont really hit the offensive board with a lot of oomph. And I feel this is a good matchup for Melo replacement Rakeem Christmas to be a solid contributor. Eventually, they will miss Melo’s defensive presence and ability to jumpstart the fastbreak with game changing defensive plays. But those moments will be against the likes of UK, UNC or in the next round against an Ohio State. I think they ease by the Badgers in a tightly fought contest and the Orange’s zone frustrates the Badgers offense into one of its worst games of the season. Too often Wisconsin’s offense is a bunch of passes, which is good, but it also leads to team to limited scoring options. I just dont think thats a recipe for success aginst the Orange’s zone. Syracuse wins 65-56.

OHIO STATE VS CINCINNATI. LINES, OSU -7.5, O/U 129

The nightcap in this region is a rare battle of Ohio between The Ohio State University and Cincinnati. These clubs rarely play each other despite the fact that it would be a marquee event on the non-conference calendar. They almost played each other in the 1992 Final Four, but Michigan beat Ohio State in the regional championship precluding that matchup. Sick Burn! Anyhoo, like most of  the games tonight, expect this one to be long on defense and physicality and low on offensive fireworks. The Bucks are KenPom’s top-ranked team, while the Bearcats are ranked all the way down at #24. It’s the biggest KemPom gap of the four games tonight, his projection calls for a 10-point OSU win, while Vegas marks the Bucks as 7.5-point chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win..  If the Bearcats can manage to keep the #2 ranked offensive rebounding percentage team from racking up 2nd chance points after 2nd chance points, I feel they can make this a game. Even if they do that, they still need to figure out how they’re going to score themselves. This is an amazing OSU defense and the Bearcats just dont shoot the ball well, dont get a ton of points from behind the arc or at the free throw line and is just 209th nationally in EFG%. Thats not a good formula against this team. Yancy Gates need to have a career type of game. I just dont see this game going well for Cincy. A lot of people are hyping a close game. I dont discount that, but the Zags needed a late three pointer to cover a 7-point number in the last round against OSU and I feel the Zags matchup so much better against the Bucks than Cincy. As of now, I am not playing this game, but give a tentative lean to OSU running away and hiding down the stretch and being closer to KenPom’s prediction than the Vegas line.

I expect to add some player props or two, so stay tuned to the JCB Twitter for added picks and commentary throughout the night. Whoever your teams are this evening, good luck and have fun!

Let’s break down Saturday night’s games.

(4) Indiana vs. (12) VCU, 7:10 p.m., TBS, Line IU -6

I was too scared to make a call in Indiana’s first game against New Mexico State, and I’m staying away from the Hoosiers again. Indiana has just been so inconsistent this season, and a team that can play defense like VCU would worry me if I were an Indiana fan. VCU’s pressure defense caused Wichita State all kinds of problems in the second-round win, although Indiana has been fairly good handling the ball. However, Verdell Jones, a ballhandler, is out for the season for IU. This is a matchup between one of the most efficient offenses in IU and one of the most efficient defenses in VCU. On offense, VCU shoots a lot of three-pointers. I could see Indiana lose this one by 10 or win it by 20, so I’d stay away from it. But if I had to pick, I’d take VCU with the points.

(1) Kentucky vs. (8) Iowa State, 7:45 p.m., CBS, Line UK -11

Most people thought Connecticut would be here to challenge top-seeded Kentucky. But in typical UConn fashion this season, they flamed out, losing to Iowa State. The Cyclones had four players in double-figures, led by 20 from guard Chris Allen. Despite using a three-guard lineup for much of the game, Iowa State pounded the taller Huskies on the glass by a 40-21 margin, including grabbing 11 offensive rebounds. I don’t see it happening again against one of the top rebounding teams in the country. Iowa State won’t have the benefit of a team surrounded in turmoil and I see Kentucky rolling in this one and covering.

(3) Baylor vs. (11) Colorado, 8:40 p.m., TNT, Line Baylor -8

So the Pac-12 does have a pulse. Colorado built a 20-point lead on UNLV on Thursday before letting the Rebels cut it close by the end. UNLV took an incredible 23 more shot attempts than Colorado thanks to 23 turnovers from the Buffs, but a 43-30 rebounding edge, including 16 from Andre Roberson helped offset that. Like Iowa State, I don’t see Colorado winning the rebounding battle this time around. Baylor had a 31-17 edge on the glass against South Dakota State, including 12 offensive rebounds. I’m leaning toward Baylor covering in this one.

(4) Louisville vs. (5) New Mexico, 9:40 p.m., TBS, Line UL – 1.5

This should be a low-scoring affair, as it matches two top-14 defenses in terms of adjusted efficiency. On offensive, Louisville struggles to put the ball in the basket. Against Davidson, the Cardinals shot just 40 percent. The only reason they scored 69 points was because they went 26-for-36 from the free-throw line. For New Mexico, 31.7 percent of their points come from the three-point line, but everything starts with Drew Gordon, who leads New Mexico with 13.5 points and 11 rebounds per game. KenPom actually has this game as a two-point win for New Mexico, and I agree. I’d take New Mexico with the points.