Other bid prospects in the Big East, and throughout the country for that matter, saw the bubble squeeze even tighter last night with St. Mary’s trucking Gonzaga to earn an automatic bid into the field and guaranteeing the West Coast Conference a second bid. So, there’s one less bid on the table. That’s not good news for the four Big East teams today still in contention for an at large bid. The bar they need to clear this week to impress the final jurists has been raised. None of the teams looking to make it 9 or 10 bids for the Big East are one win away from the field, but with a tighter bubble none of them might even be two wins away from the field. One thing we do know: Their respective chases for Indianapolis will come to an anonymous end if they cant get out of the first round today in the Big East Tournament. A quick look at today’s four games.

SOUTH FLORIDA VS DEPAUL, NOON, ESPN. LINES, USF-7, O/U 126

The South Florida Bulls are the 9th seed in this sectional and they open play in the tourney lid lifter this afternoon against 16th seed and last place DePaul. Ths Bulls might be in the best shape among the Big East teams that currently sit on the wrong side of the bubble. They’re third-from-out of the Matrix’s consensus field with a total of 17 mock votes. That’s a good number to build up from and still sneak into the field. Just when you thought this team was dead and out after a loss to St. John’s, they pulled eveyone back in with an impressive final week including a big a win over UConn over the weekend. The Bulls are now shooting for something higher, namely a breakthrough bid into the NCAA Tournament. Conventional wisdom says the Bulles need to make quick work of woeful Depaul this afternoon to set up a play-in game for themselves tomorrow in the same time slot against Georgetown. The Bulls had never won more than four Big East games in a season, but won nine league games this year. If they can land a couple more, they could be dancing. If you havent caught any Bulls games this season, make a point to do so during this sectional. Dominque Jones and his 21 points per game is one of the more exciting players in the country. If he sticks around for a senior season we could be entering an era of bigtime college hoops in Tampa.

UCONN VS ST. JOHN’S, 2:00, ESPN. LINES, UCONN -4, O/U 133.5

The rollercoaster that has been the UConn Huskie season faces an elimination game against St. John’s in the second game of the day. The Huskies were set up for a bid, but they dropped contests to Louisville and USF in the season’s final eight days dropping them far down the pecking order. They’ve also been dropped from most mock bracketologists field. They receive just five mock votes, good for seventh-from-last out, but all five of those votes are still being pulled from mocks whose updates since the weekend arent reflected in the Bracket Matrix as of this morning. It was dismal close to the season after a mid-February surge brought the Huskies back into contention. Jim Calhoun benched some players as the closer against USF played out. They Huskies enter the Big East Tournament on thier third three-game losing streak of the season. At 17-14, how in the world do they have any at-large hopes, especially since their foe today St. John’s has no chance and a similar 16-14 record? The Huskies remain with a pulse on account of an ambitious schedule that included the likes of Duke, Kentucky, Texas in out of conference play and a challenging Big East slate that included wins over Notre Dame, West Virginia and at Villanova. Not many bubble teams have a top-5 win list as good as UConn. The only thing that resonates as a bad loss include being swept by Cincinnati and losing in Ann Arbor to Michigan.  The record is so lethargic looking, however, that Madison Square Garden is the Last Call Saloon for the Huskies. How many wins do the Huskies need in this sectional to swipe a bid? At least two. Today and then tomorrow against Marquette. That puts them back in discussion. A match with Villanova would be next in the quarterfinals. A win there would give UConn 20 wins. The Huskies need somewhere between 2 wins and a finals appearance to net an at large bid. Their best bet might be to wash away the current three-game slide they’re on with a three-game winning streak.

SETON HALL VS PROVIDENCE, 7:00, ESPN 2. LINES, HALL -5.5, O/U 166.5

If you like offense, then the third game of the day between Seton Hall and Providence is your ticket. It’s the Hall’s 1th ranked scoring offense vs Providence’s 345th ranked scoring defense. It’s the Friars 6th ranked scoring offense vs the Pirates 306th ranked scoring defense. This is a rematch of Saturday’s regular season closer, a 12-point Pirate win that featured 172 total points. The Vegas total on the board is 166.5. Interesting. Aparently Hall coach Bobby Gonzalez is a divisive figure. The Pirates rank just above UConn on the wrong side of the bubble. They’re sixth-from-out, but unlike the Huskies they’re at least catching some recent support. They have nine mocks putting them in their field, all after weekend updates. The Pirates are in range, but how many wins will it take? They match with Notre Dame tomorrow night should they win.  Should they beat the Irish, their second win of the Big East sectional will give them 20 wins. But, it would also be their first resume win in over a month, when they best the Irish in early February. They non-league slate was weak. Their best win there was against Cornell back before Thanksgiving. Seton Hall is a team that gets hurt the most by St. Mary’s reeling in that bid last night. They might need a third win in this field against the second seed West Virginia Thursday night to guarantee a spot in the final Field of 65.

CINCINNATI VS RUTGERS, 9:00 ESPN 2. LINES, CINCY -7.5, O/U 132

In the nightcap, Cincinnati square off against Rutgers. Cincy has wheezed down the stretch, but is their recovery just a matter of relaxing and playing loose? Most probably think the Bearcats are out of at large consideration. I say not so fat my friends. Granted, the Bearcats hurdle to clear might be the highest of all the potential late qualifiers, but I still feel there’s a road map to an at large bid for Cincy. They probabaly would need to get to the Championship Game. They’re just 16-14, but have wins over Vanerbilt, Maryland and Winthrop along with OT losses to Gonzaga and Xavier as part of their out of conference resume. In the Big East, they’ve swept UConn and have wins over Pitt, Notre Dame and USF. Let’s advance them to tomorrow. Say they follow that up with wins over Louisville in Round 2, Pitt in the quarters and West Virginia in the semifinals, suddenly this is a 20-win team with a very impressive and long list of resume wins. They might still need to the automatic bid, but if they advance that far, we’ll be arguing about the Bearcats all Saturday afternoon as part of the lead-up to that game.

Picks?Picks!

Last night, we took it on the chin. The good news was winning the lone double pick on the board. The bad news was losing all three single plays, including losing Siena and Appalachian State each by just a half point. The results drop the record to 82-64-4 (+19.7 Units). Here’s what I have on the card today:

UConn -4 over St. John’s, 1 Unit……laying some dangerous chalk here given how lame the Huskies have played lately. But, the Johnnies only have three covers in the last two months. And after seemingly playing a Big East heavyweight or good bubble team every time out, the Huskies might find playing St. John’s a little easier bar to clear. It’s a close game, but the Huskies defense eventually thwarts the Johnnies and they pull away for a 7-point win.

Oakland -1 over IUPUI, 1 Unit…..Summit League Championship game. For sentimental reasons, I am pulling for Oakland. They were the best team in the league all season. They want to make amends for letting the title slip away late in this game one year ago. I’ll take them to win a coin flip in this one without hesitating.

North Texas -1 over Troy, 1 Unit…..Sun Belt Championship. Both teams like to light it up. Neither have great defenses. The total going Over 139.5 is worth a look, but sometimes nerves take over in these games and the expected scoring doesnt arrive until its too late to tilt the over. So, I am backing the Mean Green to win this one. They have not lost a game since the end of January. They’re 16-6 ATS this season and 12-3-1 ATS against the Sun Belt. They won on Troy’s home floor back in January. I think they will repeat the trick tonight on a nuetral floor and qualify for the Big Dance.

If I have anymore today, I’ll either do a new post or fire up the Twitter. Cheers!

COLONIAL ATHLETIC ASSOICATION

WILLIAM MARY VS OLD DOMINION, 7:00, ESPN. Lines, ODU -9, O/U 117.5

Have you been enjoying the Colonial Athletic Association League Tournament? Boo on you if you havent. It promised tight, dramatic action, and its more than delivered. After the most competitive regular season in years, its carried over in the postseason sectional. The last four games in the tournament have been decided by a total of 14 points with three overtime periods being played between them. Left standing is Old Dominion, the regular season champ, and William and Mary, the sectional’s third seed.

When they decide who gets the conference’s automatic bid into the Field of 65 tonight, it will be a battle of old guard vs plucky upstart. This is Old Dominion’s sixth appearance the CAA Championship game in the last 18 years. They’ve won this field three times during that time. They expect to be contenders every time this weekend rolls around. For William and Mary, it’s relatively new territory. This was their first 20-win campaign in a dozen years, only their second in the last 25 years and sixth in school history. They have been perennial bottom dwellers in the CAA standings, but this year put together a solid third place finish. Oh sure, they made the championship game two short years ago. But, that was as a .500 team and the league’s sixth seed. Otherwise, the Tribe have been whipping boys in this field having gome one-and-done in the CAA Tournament in 10 of the last 13 years. Now, they sit 40 minutes away from the school’s first ever NCAA Tournament bid. A game away from March Vahalla, tonight is for everyone in the green, gold and white William and Mary family.

When they arrived in this spot two years, the Tribe were on a Cinderella run and had stolen three straight games via buzzer beater just to advance as far as they did. They’re not interloppers this time around. The Tribe have been factors in the league race since Day One of the season. En route to just their third 20-win season since the start of the 1950s, the Tribe collected the second most CAA wins during a season in program history, won a school record 10 road games, enjoyed a record 10-game winning streak at one time and became the first CAA school in league history to win a pair of road games against ACC teams, when they won at Wake Forest and at Maryland back in Demember. They also beat Richmond, a team from the A10 that will receive an at-large bid into the tournament. Not bad for a team picked by the media to finish in 10th place.

They spent much of their quarterfinal game losing to James Madison before a late rally put them ahead and sealed a 4-point win. Against Northeastern in the semis, they opened a big halftime lead, but scored just 15 points in the second half. Leading scorer David Schneider, held without a point the whole game, finally drilled a trey with less than a minute to go to give the Tribe the lead for good. It was business as usual for the Tribe who are now 10-4 this season in games decided by 4 points or less.

Coach Tony Shaver’s team runs the Princeton-based offense. They will spread the floor, shoot a lot of treys and get inside points thanks to precise and disguised cuts and screens that open lanes to the goal. His offense has been heavily influeced by John Beilein and Herb Sendek. And the Tribe like to bomb away like a Beilein outfit, often going for long stretches of games without taking a 2-point shot. They shoot the ball just OK, within the top-35 percentile in all the country at shooting behind the arc. But, the Tribe get you with volume. No team in the history of the CAA has made as many treys as the Tribe did this season. When they’re hot, they’re unbeatable like in yesterday’s first half when they opened up a 16-point lead. When they’re cold, they’re very beatable, evidenced by the 15-point second half last night that almost eliminated them after their hot start. They defend well, ranking in the top-25 percent nationally in points allowed and field goal percentage, screen effectivley and run precise back cuts.

One missing ingredient is athleticsm and playmaking inside. It’s hurt them at times this year. They struggled against VCU and Larry Saunders and other CAA teams like UNC Wilmington and Townson enginnered upsets of the Tribe because they couldnt handle their bigs. That’s going to be a problem tonight against Old Dominion. Four of the Monarchs top six scorers are forwards that run from 6/6 to 6/10. That includes leading scorer 6/10 forward Gerald Lee and second leading scorer 6/6 Frank  Hasell. Both shoot better than 55 -percent from the field.  ODU swept the Tribe this year, with the forward trio of Lee, Hassell and Kent Bazemore combining for more than 35 points per game. They crushed the Tribe on the offensive glass, particularily in the teams second match of the year a month ago when they hauled in 19 offensive boards.

The Monarchs are all about defense. They’re sixth in the nation in points allowed. The matchup to watch tonight is how ODU’’s sticky perimeter defense, 21st in the country at defending the three-point shot, squares with the Tribe’s bombs away mentality.  They dont score that many points, but they’re deliberate on offense, shoot the ball and crash the glass. Be it on the defensive or offensive end, the Monarchs are one of the best rebounding teams in the country. Like the Tribe, they played an ambitious non-league slate and picked up impressive wins over Georgetown and Charlotte.

After barely breaking a sweat in routing Towson in the quarterfinals, Old Dominion was down and out against VCU. Down a dozen midway through the second half, the defense stepped up and helped spearhead a 20-8 run to force overtime before winning the extra session. An unfamiliar weapon–the trey-pushed the Monarchs through. Three different Monarchs drilled treys in the closing minutes to help the comeback effort.  Until then, they hadnt made a three pointer all night.

METRO ATHLETIC ASSOCIATION CONFERENCE

FAIRFIELD VS SIENA, 7:00 ESPN2. Lines, Siena -7.5, O/U 138

At times it doesnt even look like Siena is even trying in this sectional. They’ve been heavy chalk in each of their first two games, but slogged through the first half each time. Despite a 17-1 record in MAAC play this season, the Saints have trailed going into the intermission in the quarters and semis of this sectional. Eventually they woke in both second halves and outscored Manhatten by 21 and Rider by 12 in the final 20 minutes en route to easy wins in the end. Can they afford that kind of script tonight against the #2 seed and 22-win outfit that the Farifield Stags will bring tonight?  We’ll see, but I dont recommend a third straight halftime deficit tonight. The Stags are much better than the first two teams they played. They have a 40-minute game in them, where the Jaspars and Broncos didnt.

The Saints arent as explosive as the last two seasons, but they still score 75 points per game, are 54th in the country at shooting the ball and are in the top-10 percent of all teams when it comes to offensive reboudning. They’re 60th in the KenPom ratings, a heady number for a team coming from mid-majordom. The Saints have made it to the Round of 32 in consecutive seasons. The suspects on their team are familiar ones. Guards Edwin Ubiles and Ronald Moore and book end forwards Alex Franklin and Ryan Rossiter have been part of the core that’s turned March into their month. They’re back for their third and final taste from the cup.  Franklin leads the team in scoring and has averaged 20.5 points, 9.5 board so far this sectional.  Rossiter has averaged 16 points, 12.5 boards over his last 10 games. Moore is the point guard who is playing his best at the end of the season. He’s dished out 9.5 assists a game over the last four starts.

The Saints are two-time defending MAAC sectional champ. They’ve won eight straight games in this event. They’re 54-8 vs MAAC foes. Needless to say, Fairfield has to play its A-plus game to score the upset. The Stags have lost five in a row and seven of their eight against Siena. Opportunity knocks tonight for the Stags, but will they answer the door.

The Stags are beefy and deep up front. Four of their five scorers are frontcourt players anywhere between 6/7 and 6/11. Anothony Johnson and Yorel Hawkins get the most run of that crowd. The starting forwards combine for over 30 points per game and shoot better than 53 percent from the field. Between these guys and Rossiter and Franklin for Siena we have a great matchup of frontcourts. The Stags tandem has to totally outplay their Saint counterparts to earn the win. Freshman Derek Needham leads the team in scoring and assists. His presences has lifted Fairfield from league also-rans to second place this year. Still, how will the freshman overcome a deeper, more experienced and talented group of Siena guards? I dont know if he can on this stage. But, he picked up his scoring down the stretch, averaging just under 20 points per game since the end of January. He’ll need to have an explosive game for the Stags to overcome all the offense the Saints can throw at them.

One difference to keep an eye on is free throws. Siena does not foul. Teams never get to the line against them. In two games during the MAAC finals, the Saints have attempted 30 more freebies than their opponents. No way Fairfield wins if they cant find a way to even up the production on the charity stripe.

SOUTHERN CONFERENCE

APPALACHIAN STATE VS WOOFORD, 9:00 ESPN2. Lines, Wofford -4.5, O/U 134.5

In the Southern Confernece Final, we have another team trying to make their first ever NCAA bid. And like their counterpart in the Colonial it comes after years of being a league punching bag. Wofford has never played in the Field of 65. Nor, had they ever advanced past the Southern Semis before. Until this weekend, that is. After one-and-dones in five of the last six Southern Conference Tournaments, Wofford stands a win away from an historic NCAA bid. They’re surfing  on a 12-game winning streak, if they make it lucky 13 tonight, they will be dancing.

Despite their ‘meh’ history, Wofford is no Cinderella. At least not this year. With a 15-3 record, they were the top-seed in the field after winning the conference regular season title. They’ve had a pair of easy games, including last night’s dismantling in the semifinals of a  Western Carolina team that had beaten Louisville and won 22 games.

The Terriers make their bones on defense. They’re 34th in nation in scoring D, 31rst at defending the three-point shot and 73rd at defensive rebounding. On offense, they lean heavily on 6/6 junior forward Noah Dahlman. He averages 17 points per game and over his three seasons at Wofford is nearly a career 60-percent shooter. Simply put, he’s one of the most effecient players in the nation. Per KenPom’s rankings, Dalhman is the 32nd rated player in the country on offense. He does just about everything on the offensive end of the floor about as well as any other forward in the country. Otherwise, Wofford is a middle of the pack team on offense. Dalhman is their only double figure scorer, but their trio of guards Jamar Diggs, Junior Salters and Cameron Rundles are all good three point shooters. When the D collapses too much on Dalhman, they’ve been able to swish open shots all year en route to the first place finish. Can they continue to hit them with an NCAA bid on the line?

Their foe tonight is Appalachian State. The Mountaineers won the North Division of this conference, so we have the top two seeds in this field going at it this evening. Appy State is a powerful offensive team, ranking 51st in the nation in scoring, 14th in overall and three-point shooting and 23rd in offensive rebounding. All of it was on display last night when they routed a very good Charleston team in the semifinals. This game was not close after the first 10 minutes of the game. While Wofford is a one-man gang on offense, the Mountaineers offer a little bit of everything.  When it comes to tempo free stats, Appy State has individual leaders everywhere.  Guard Donald Simms drops in 20 per game and is one of the best rated overall offensive players in the country and he almost cracks the top-50 in effective field goal rate. Teamate and 6/10 big man Isaac Butts does crack the top-25 in that categoy and, along with John Hunter, is also in the top-20 of offensive rebounding percentage. Between Simms, Kellen Brand and Jeremi Booth, the ‘Neers top three-point shooters are more dangerous than Wofford’s trio of marksmen.

This will be a classic case of Appy State’s offense going head-to-head with Woffrd’s defense. It’s the 51st scoring offense of Appy State versus the 34th scoring defense of the Terriers. Both units are what got them to this point, 40 minutes away from the Field of 65. We’ll see which can exert its might over the other this evening.

WEST COAST CONFERNECE

ST. MARY’S VS GONZAGA, 9:00, ESPN. Lines, Gonzaga -3.5, O/U 134.5

The question of the night is, is St. Mary’s in the NCAA field? They look to remove all doubt this evening in the conference title game against Gonzaga. They were in this exact spot a year ago, got trucked by the Zags in the WCC Finals and were snubbed by the Selection Committee. Do you believe in Deja-vu? It doesnt matter if you do or not, but the Gaels may be experiencing it if they lose to the Zags once again, even if the game is closer than a year ago.

As of this morning, the Gaels are seeded on the 12-line of the Bracket Matrix. They’re in 70 of the 77 mock bracketologists fields. Teams have been falling all around them all weekend, so even though they didnt play until Sunday night their position has been improved. Three of the five at large bids just ahead of them lost this weekend as did two of their fellow 12-seed at-large candidates in the Matrix. As the Matrix becomes more fully updated as the day gets long, I expect St. Mary’s position to become even more secure.

But I dont think any of that is relevant. I dont think they make it if they lose another one to the Zags. They’ve dropped six in a row to the boys from Spokane, by an average of 12 points per game. In the end, that’s how the Gaels are measured, straight up against the Zags. In 2008, they received an NCAA at-large bid for the WCC, but had a win over the Zags on their resume. Last year, they went 0-3 against the Bulldogs are were snubbed despite a guady looking record. They’re back this year with another sterling record, but they’re 0-2 against Gonzaga. You can figure out the stakes for yourself. Most of the at-large candidates holding down a bracket spot right now are all allegedly one win away from a bid and one lose away from being tossed into the NIT. The Gaels are in the same boat, except with a win tonight it guarantees them the WCC auto bid. The Zags, a Matrix 6th seed, are in regardless. Fans of bubble teams everywhere are not only rocking their Gonzaga pom-poms tonight, but they’re kind of pulling for a woodshed to further diminish the Gaels hopes.

The Gaels smoked San Diego State, lost by 2 at home to Vandy, won at Utah State and lost to USC as far as their top non league results go. It certainly doesnt relfect poorly on the Gaels, but it doesnt scream obvious tournament resume either. A win over the Zags on the nuetral floor would be both their biggest win of the season and one of the most impressive wins a bubble team will get during this last week of play.

As always, the Gaels packed their offense. They score a shade under 80 points per game. They’re the fourth best 3-point shooting team in the country. Mickey McConnell, Michael Dellavadova and Wayne Hunter all score in double figures and shoot better than 40-percent from behind the arc. Despite their aim from deep, the offense revolves around 6/11 pivot man Omar Samhan. He leads five scorers in double figures with a 21.3 mark. He pulls in just over 11 boards a game and has double-doubles in nine of his last 10 outings. Because of his presence, the Gaels are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation.

We all know the team in the other corner. Despite a roster makeover, the Zags have not skipped a beat.  They too bring an explosive offense to the game, scoring 78.1 points per game and ranking fifth nationally in overall shooting at just under 50-percent. Four players score in double figures, led by the backcourt of Matt Bouldin and Steven Gray. Elias Harris is a forward with all sorts of skills that provides matchup problems for every team on account of his versatility. They have a 7-footer in the middle with Robert Sucre who drops in 10 points a game, who will be matching up with Samham all night.

Bottom line: This will be a high scoring, fast paced, exciting game with a lot on the line for the Gaels and the rest of the NCAA Tournament Bubble. Make sure you stay up to watch it. And, prep your arguments for or against St. Mary’s accordingly.

PICKS? PICKS!

Well, of course I have picks. What, you think I would make you read close to 3,000 words without some cookies at the end? Anyway, the ship is steaming ahead. After a slow start to March, we rolled this weekend. After a 8-3-1 Sunday, the college basketball record is 81-61-4 on the season, good for a profit of 20.8 Units. There’s tons of basektball ahead. We’re playing with House Money. What could go wrong?

WIlliam Mary +9 over ODU, 2 Units……..College basketball is all about matchups, at least that’s what all the drones on ESPN Radio keep telling me. Well, bullocks to that. I dont care if the Tribe dont matchup well up front with the Monarchs.. To me, this game is all about mathematics. The Tribe will hit their fair share of treys. They might even have a hot streak each half. ODU does not have much of a three-point attack. I dont think the Tribe exchange enoughs 3’s for 2’s to pull out the win, but they certainly will do the trick enough to keep this game close and in the single digits. The whole weekend in Richmond has involved games going down to the wire. I expect the two teams who bagged the biggest scalps of the season in this league to do the same tonight. The Tribe were the best ATS team in the league this year. They are 13-3 ATS when catching points this year. And they’ve covered twice as many times on the road than not. ODU went 6-11 ATS this year against teams with a winning record this year. I’ll roll with the Tribe once again.

Siena -7.5 over Fairfield, 1 Unit….I hate laying chalk, but its Siena or nothing in this one. They’ve been waiting for the finals to dish out ther A-game. The Stags get served tonight. Saints win by double digits and head to the NCAAs where they’ll try to win their third straight first round game. If not for my aversion to chalk, I might double on this one. The Saints are just so much better than everyone else in their league right now. Dueling trends going on in this one. Fairfield’s 8 straight covers against league foes vs Siena’s bounc back profitability mark of 35-16 ATS after an ATS. I’ll go with the later and lay the chalk. Siena rarely falls to the number in back to back games. Book It.

Appy State +4.5 over Wofford, 1 Unit…….Appy State is 17-8 ATS this season, 7-2 when catching points. That includes a 1-point win on the road at Wofford back in December as a 7-point underdog. They’re on a major money making run, booking covers in 10 of their last 11 games, not to mention six of seven head-to-head over Wofford.  They beat the Terriers in their building, so I’ll take the head start tonight on the nuetral floor. Meanwhile Wofford is just 4-8-1 ATS as chalk. I really liked what I saw out of Appy State last night. I think they’ll be too explosive, too versatile and too much to handle for Wofford.

Gonzaga -3.5 over St. Mary’s, 1 Unit…..I have this little rule: Dont bet against the Zags in league play. They’re 37-25-2 ATS vs the WCC in the last four years. Usually they’re solid double digit favorites. Today, they’re short chalk and I have to take them at such a cheap price in the league they’ve dominated. The Gaels proving to be terrible underdogs over the years with a 7-15 ATS mark when catching points only adds to my interest.

A double play, like yesterday, on William Mary. The rest single plays. If I crap out, I lose 85 percent of the bank made yesterday. I say throw caution to the wind, it’s March.

 Winthrop impressed me the most. Any time a team reminds me of the 1989 Seton Hall Pirates in the postseason, it’s a good thing. The Pirates demolished teams on defense en route to the NCAA Championship Game. Every game they played, invariably the other team would literally not score for an eternity. The Hall would use that stretch to blow the game wide open, like they did against Indiana in the regionals, or to push by you at the end, the way they did in the Final Four against Duke. Winthrop stole that playbook and won the Big South. In their last two games in the sectional, their defense took over the postseason the way the Hall’s did 21 years ago. In the semifinals, Radford was stuck in the 30s the whole second half while Winthrop routed them the final 20 minutes. In the title game, the Eagles defense pulled the trick twice. They forced Coastal Carolina into eight straight missed shots in the first half, allowing themselves to steady the game and climb out of an early 6-point hole. In the second half, it took forever for the Chants just to put up 10 points. By the time they did, Winthrop was too far ahead and the top seed and 9-point chalk went down. Winthrop is likely headed to a 16-seed, so they’re going to be hard pressed to duplicate that feat against the Kansases and Sryacuses of the world. But, maybe we investors will catch a break, and the Eagles get shipped to the play-in game, With that defense, I think they would win that game going away.

East Tennessee State won one of the best games of the day by taking the Atlantic Sun over Mercer. The Bucs now look for the first Field of 65 win since topping Arizona in 1992 as a 14-seed. The Fab Five Freshmen took care of them in the next round. When February ended, the Bucs were the fifth-place finisher in the A-Sun. By the end of the first week of March, they had advanced in the Final 65. March Madness at its best. As for Murray State, I’m just glad my gut still proves to be a useful handicapping tool. I thought the game with Morehead was a toss-up and originally was inclined to take the four points. But, my gut told me the Racers would have too much offense in the end. And, they did, turning it up a notch the final 6-7 minutes en route to an easier-than-it-really-looked win.

Anyway, on to today’s action with PICK$, as we have semifinals, quarterfinals and opening round play in 10 different leagues. But, we start with the one and only sectional championship of the day.

Can it be as easy as just taking Northern Iowa and the Under? The Panthers are 19-11 ATS. The Under in their games is 23-7. In 30 games this season, the Panthers and the Under both came in a total of 14 times. Whoa. So had you been putting a unit on Northern, a unit on the Under and then a half unit parlaying the two of them, you’d be up 32.8 Units. I consider it a JCB failure that we werent able to really steer ourselves and anyone else to this bandwagon this season. We will deliver next year. Its hit both games for the Panthers in this tournament. Not sure about the uber-low 114 total this afternoon, but I do like the Panthers to take this game. You just dont score 60 or more points against this team and the Shockers are 1-5 this year when held below 60, 5-33 when held below that mark the last four seasons. Wichita did win for me yesterday, and they’ve discovered their nasty side this weekend. But, I dont think they have enough of it to out nasty the Panthers and their defense thats allowed less than 55 points 23 times this year. Make it 24. Panthers win 61-53. Or thereabouts. I’m making the Panthers a double play.

In the Colonial, we have two must see semifinal games. I watched every minute of the quarters yesterday, and it lived up to my entertainment expectations thats for sure. Some great performances. We’ll see which teams have recharged on the fly. My picks? With all due respect to VCU, who I hate to bet against and killed me yesterday, but I think it’s Old Dominion’s year. They’re the only team that didnt have to break a sweat yesterday. Those fresh legs will count for something today. I like them at -2. But, I really love William Mary catching 5.5 points in the second game. Let’s see Northeastern hasnt covered a spread in over a month. Meanwhile, the Tribe, at 15-10 ATS, were the best Colonial team against the number this season. Interesting. Also the Huskies played into double OT last night. We have the fresher legs again in this one. I just dont like the way Northeastern has played the last month. William Mary has been better and their three point attack gets them the straight up win tonight. But, I’ll take the 5.5 points and put them in my back pocket just in case. All four of these teams can win a first round game in the Field of 65. These will be fun games.

In the MAAC, I dont really like laying heavy chalk in these type of tournaments, so I’ve crossed off laying the 12.5 with Siena against Rider. It took the Saints about 30 minutes yesterday before they woke and shook off the underdog to cover as chalk. I expect the same thing to happen today and it’s a coin flip in the end whether or not this game ends up above or below the dozen-point line. I’m waiting until the finals to hit me some Siena Saint action. But, I will put a One Unit on Niagara to upend Fairfield at -1 in the second game. The Purple Raiders are the sixth seed, but they’re favored. Someobody knows something. I want to be with that somebody. They’ve been one of the best teams this decade in this sectional. They know how to win and it sets up a battle tomorrow night between Siena and the only MAAC team to have beaten them this year.

In the Southern Conference we have West Carolina playing Wofford followed by Appalachian State playing College of Charleston. We had a great late night rally last night on the backs of moneyline parlays, one of which took place within this sectional. We’re willing to try again. Lets go Wofford and Charleston to win.  Odds are better than any of the three we won on last night. It pays one George Washington better than 2/1.

Elswhere, I like Boston -2 over Stony Brook in the American East, Robert Morris -2 over Mount St Mary’s in the Northeast Confernece and St. Mary’s to win on the -150 moneyline over Portland in the West Coast Conference, all for one unit apiece.

In summary, here is my card for these games:

NIU -2, 2 Units, 2:00, CBS….bought line down from three to two. This is 2.6 Units to win 2 units. Gulp

ODU -2, 1 Unit, 3:00, ESPN Full Court

William/Mary +5.5, 2 UnitS, 5:30, ESPN Full Court

Niagara -1, 1 Unit, 6:30, ESPN Full Court

Monelyline parlay, Wofford/Charleston One Unit to win 2 Units, 6:00 and 8:30, ESPN Full Court (both games)

Boston -2 over Stony Brook, 1 Unit, 5:00, ESPN 360

Robert Morris -2 over Mt. St. Mary’s, 1 Unit, 7:00,  ESPN 360

St. Mary’s to win over Portand, 1.5 Units to win 1 Unit, ESPN 2, 11:30

These picks go along with the picks from my other post today: Florida +12, already a winner, Lafayette -3 over Holy Cross going on now with Lafayette up 9 at the half, Illinois +3 over Wisconsin, 2:00, CBS and Wake -1 over Clemson, 6:00, FSN. The Florida and Lafayette picks were for cheap thrills and a half unit each. Illinois and Wake are serious business. Full Units.

(Season Record in college hoops: 73-58-3, +14.5 Units)

Hard to believe that for the second year in a row, the Rhode Island Rams quest for a bid was dealt a curshing blow by dropping a heartbreaker to a bad UMass team in the season finale. But, it’s a bad deja-vu all over again for Jimmy Barron’s club. It’s been a nice blast from the past to see a Mike Davis club fatler down the stretch and drop another late season game with a bid on the line. Losing a double digit half time lead because you cant score coming out of the lockerroom? Man, that takes me back. Sweet memories. All I need now is a text from Kelvin sometime today and the reunion will be complete.Mississippi State had a 0-2 every bit as bad as UAB’s capped off yesterday by a non-competitive home loss to Tennessee.  Dayton got smoked at home by St. Louis. And then there’s the curios case of the Georgia Tech Yellowjackets. They outclassed on their home floor by Virginia Tech, leaving them 7-9 in ACC play. I’m telling you, they will not make the Field of 65 if they dont get another win. The are down to their final chance. That makes their 7/10 vs UNC Thursday night one if the biggest games of conference tournaments this week.

Who benefits the most from yesterday’s results? How about the group in the Second Four Out in the Matrix. Those teams went 4-0 as Memhpis, Wichita State, Arizona State and Washington all won. Suddenly, the Pac 10 is sitting pretty for perhaps still three bids after a season-long talk of just one bid. One CUSA replaces another in the quest for that league to get its first ever at-large bid since the Big East defections. And a fourth bid from the MWC going to SDSU and an eighth bid for the Big East going to USF all seem much stronger possibiliites now than they did 24 hours ago.

The other winners were the teams among the final 10 at-larges in the Matrix that play games today. Can they really drop all that far with so many other teams losing. Suddenly, there’s a lot of cushion beneath them. Conceivably, they’ll just be running in place, even if the lose, not really an undesirable outcome when you’re considered in the field with just a week before Selection Sunday.

I didnt think Florida was going to fall to far any way should they lose at Rupp Arena to UK this afternoon. I mean its one of the hardest wins out there. The Gators could win by just pushing the Cats into the final minutes.  The pitchfork crowd has had enough of the same old crap they saw against Vanderbilt in the home finale earlier in the week. The Gators fell into an early hole and after spending the whole game climbing out of it didnt have any energy left as they basically went scoreless over the game’s final minutes. But, the angst is overblown. I dont think the Gators are in jeopardy of missing the NCAAs for a third straight year. As mentioned above, there’s plenty of cusion for Florida to absord a loss today and still remain in decent shape as far as the pecking order for the bids goes. They need one more win, and they’re staring at a matchup with Alabama or Auburn in the SEC First Round on Thursday. Had the bubble’s record been the reverse of its 4-7 record yesterday, teams would be surging by the Gators. Instead they’re falling around them. They’re going to be hard to keep out of the field as long as they get one more win. But good luck winning on Senior Day at Rupp.

Illinois position also improved yesterday in advance of their showdown with Wisconsin this afternoon. Illinois is seeded on the 11-line right now with 54 of 75 total mocks voting them in. They lost earlier in the week, but there’s been enough carnage around them on the bubbl where a loss in Columbus hasnt damaged their current position.With  43 of 58 mocks that have updated since that defeat still having them in the field, their support has not really waned and most of those straw polls were taken before the bubble implosion yesterday. Bracketology 101 has them as an 11-seed, Baseline Stats has them as the last team in the field, and Joey Brackets has them on the 10-line.  None of that takes into account yesterday, so the Illini have three keen bracketologists making the case for them right now. Would it change with a loss to Wisconsin today? Perhaps. They certainly have more pressure to win on them today than Florida. The Gators are on the road against arguably the best team in the country. The Illini are playing at home against a team that will finish in fourth place in the Big 10. But, again, it’s repetitive, but there’s cushion for the fall. If they fall out of the Matrix due to a loss to the Badgers, they will barely fall out of it. And, they can conceivably make up for whatever lost ground occurs today by beating the Badgers in the rematch in the 4/5 quarterfinal game on Friday in the Big 10 Tournament. Their fans might not feel like dancing, but it’s going to take an 0-2 close against Bo Ryan’s club to keep them out of the field.

 Frankly, I think the its silly putting Illinois out of your mock field. They beat Clemson and Vanderbilt as part of a rugged out of conference slate, the beat Michigan State, won AT Wisconsin and, win or lose today, will finish with a winning Big 10 record mark. Are you going to ding them for that loss down at Georgia? Well, Florida and Georgia Tech also lost to UGA, as did a few other times currently locked in the field, and the Illini have had better league seasons than the Gators and Jackets. I just think the Illini meet every criteria out there: they played a tough slate, showed they can beat tournament teams, showed they can beat them on the road, showed they can beat people in their league. They only criteria working against them is the skid they’re on now with losses in four of five outings. If they can stop the bleeding today, by getting a regular season sweep of the Badgers, you can book their spot in the field.

Other games from the big boy leagues to keep an eye include Wake Forest hosting Clemson. The Deacons are a unanimous Matrix selection with a 9-seed. But, they’re two losses away from ending the season on a six game losing streak. That would not be good.

St. Mary’s wont benefit from the same cushion Florida and Illinois may have receivede yesterday. They’re in the field for now, but if they lose their WCC semifinal tonight against Portland, they will probably be out for good. I’ll go more in depth on this game and all the other conference tournament action going on today in another post.

And, in East Lansing, in-state rivals Michigan and Michigan State hook up. A year ago, Michigan needed a killer win in the Barn against Minnesota to put them in position for a bid. When this year’s schedule came out, I remember dreading what would happen if the Wolverines were in a similar situation headed into the closer at the Breslin. Luckily, I guess, we dont have to worry about that. Michigan needs a major road upset just to resuscitate NIT hopes. I’ll do a proper obit on the team sometime in the upcoming weeks in a MGo Diary. For now, know that the February slide, where they finished two games worse that month than I projected, has beaten me into the ground so much that I’m not even interested in betting on Johnny Beilein;s club in his money month of March. I was interested in their chances earlier in the week against Minnesota. Despite that win, I am less than interested in their chances against the double digit number this afternoon. Maybe I’ll try them out the 8/9 game against Iowa in the BTT First Round on Thursday if the price is cheap enough. As for State, should they lose this game, they wont get a share of the Big 10 Title and probably wont get a top-4 seed in the NCAAs either. Is Raymar Morgan’s college career reaching an end? Hard to believe.

Picks? Picks!

Somehow we came out ahead yesterday. Might as well play some more today. I will have another post that will include picks on the conference tournament action. But, for the regular season games going on today, here goes:

Florida +12 over Florida +12, Half Unit…..I’m bored and want action. Only putting a half unit on it.

Illinois +3 over Wisconsin, 1 Unit

Wake -1 over Clemson, 1 Unit

Obviously, we’re banking on home court advantage and expect both of those clubs to remove doubt of their NCAA worthiness with wins on their home court to end the season.

And, Lafayette -3 over Holy Cross in the Patriot Semifinals, for a Half Unit. The game starts at 1:00 and I wont have my post on the other conference tournament action going on today ready by then. So, I’m throwin it up here.

Northeastern/William Mary over Hofstra/James Madison. 1 Unit to win 1 Unit

Appalachian State/Charleston over Citadel/Tennessee-Chat. 1 Unit to win 1.25 Units

Seton Hall/Utep over Providence/UAB.  1 Unit to win 1.5 Unit

And, one addition single play: St. Louis +11.5 over Dayton. I like the Billikens defense to make this an ugly game and keep it close. Flyers win, but by only 9 points.

Short and sweet. We’ve got plenty of action out on the board already. Looks like we’ve come all the way back from the 0-3 start as far as final scores go. Three games about midway through, plus these night games and the the A Sun and OVC title games from an earlier post all still out there. Grab a drink and buckle in.

BIG SOUTH CHAMPIONSHIP

Winthrop at Coastal Carolina, 4:00 ESPN 2. Lines, Coastal -9, O/U 118.5

I wryly compared Winthrop’s game the other night to an old school shortstop that was all glove and no stick. It was meant to be a back handed compliment at best. I admit I was wrong and, in the process, forgot one key thing about those shortstops. How clutch they were in big moments. And that really better defines Winthrop. Never bet against them in a coin flip game in the Big South Tournament. Lesson learned. Their defense flat shut down Radford on Thursday night to advance to this game. Radford had taken a 31-30 four minutes into the second half. But, they couldnt score any more points. Over the next 12 minutes of clock, they remained stuck in the 30s. All Winthrop needed was one offensive spurt, which they got, and it was lights out.  They’re going to need to pull of a similar trick if they’re to get by Coastal and make the Final 65. The Chants had it rolling the other night against Asheville. And their home crowd was a major factor. Still with all the pressure of an NCAA bid on the line, can you expect another blowout? I dont. It’s the historic leader vs the current frontrunner, and I think the old guard keeps this one closer than the experts think.

The Pick: Winthrop +9, 1 Unit…..Winthrop is too experienced to be rattled by the home crowd. They lost by 10 on this court two months ago, but beat Coastal by three at home five weeks ago. I think they know how to play the Chants and wont be outclassed. I think they push them and even though the Chants may pull away, I dont think this margin exceeds single digits at the final buzzer. Besides, Winthrop is 20-4 since 200o in the conference tournament and never has lost by more than 8 points. I think the Chants will have to take a major punch in the mouth before breaking their 17-year NCAA Tournament drought.

ALTANTIC SUN

East Tennessee State at Mercer, 6:00 ESPN 2. Lines, ETSU -2, O/U 144

Welcome to the goofiest sectional so far of the tournament. The Atlantic Sun ended in a four-way tie for first place. But none of those teams advanced into the championshiop game of the postseason tournament. Keenesaw State took out Lipscomb Wednesday night in a quarterfinal game. ETSU took out Campbell Thursday night in the quarters. Mercer meanwhile has used home court advantage to upend two of the co-champs Belmont and Jacksonville in the quarters and semis.  This is the fifth and sixth place teams in the Atlantic Sun, and they’re both still alive for the Field of 65. They’re a win a way. Something tells me this system may work out just yet. Anyway, on one hand, ETSU was the only other team other than thoes fateful four at the top to register a winning record in league. These teams split this year, with each winning by five points. The difference maker might be Mercer guard EJ Kusnyer. He was on fire in the Mercer win, but when they lost to the Bucs he missed twice as many shots as he made. He’s one of four Bears who score in double figures, but he’s been quiet during this sectional averging just 7.5 points. If Mercer is going to continue the trend of lower seeds winning in this field, then he needs to have a bigger scoring impact.

The Pick: Mercer +2, 1 Unit….Did we mention they’re playing at home. Somehow a tournament that’s seen the lower seed go 4-2 has evolved to where the sixth seed Mercer Bears have home court advantage with a spot in the Field of 65 on the line. I know good March karma when I see it. I’ll take the home team in a coin flip here. The Bears have already won a high scoring game and a low scoring game in this field. I think they’re ready for ETSU’s game. They get enough offense and home court to sneak this one out with my pick to click Kusnyer going for 15 points. Book It.

OHIO VALLEY CONFERENCE

Morehead State vs Murrary State, 8:00 ESPN 2. Lines, Murray State -4, O/U 131

The only game of the three championship tilts played on a nuetral court. This one is in Nashville. And its the only one between the two top seeds of the sectional. It’s the defending champ Morehead against the regular season champ Murray State.  These teams went 32-4 in the Ohio Valley this season. They’re 82-30 in the last three years. Ohio Valley powers are clashing in this one. I think its kind of a bizarre spot for Murray to be in the last couple of days. They went 17-1 in the OVC, the clear first place team. Yet, in the semifinals they played a team that was hotter than they were with Eastern Illinois’ 8-game winning streak. And today they play a tean that beat them less than 10 days ago. They sure did break more of sweat to get out of the semifinals than Morehead did.  The Racers gutted out a low scoring, four-point win over EIU in a game they spent on the losing end for much of the time.It was an ugly win. All year the Racers have seemingly rotated stepping up and being the man. Last night it was Donte Poole’s turn. Morehead woodshedded Tennessee Tech by 29 in a game that was over midway through the first half.

The Pick: Murray -4, 1 Unit…..gut feeling Murray closes Morehead out and wins by more than four points. They may have to hit a fair share of free throws to push past the cover, but I’ll take my chances there with a club that makes 70-percent of its freebies. I just think the Racers survived last night. Tonight, they play more loose. I think they’ll have too much offensive versatility for Morehead State to keep up with in the second half.

George Mason +10 (-125) over VCU, 2:00 ESPN 360, 1 Unit…….I know Mason sputtered the final weeks of the season. I know I hypothesized earlier that the Rams would have too much offense for the Patriots today. They might still, but I just cant foresee a blowout when these two teams play. I’ll take this kind of head start. Besides, the Patriots are 18-12 ATS the last five years as an underdog against CAA and mid-major foes, 11-6 the last two seasons. I think they hang with the Rams the whole way. A quick note on the line. It went up to 9.5 by the time I went to play it. I paid a little extra juice to get the full 10 points.

St. Peter’s -1 over Rider, 2:00 ESPN 360, 1 Unit…..these two split their season season, each winning on the road. But the Peacocks finished two games better in the MAAC standings than Rider, so I tend to think they’re the better team. I’ll take them in this coin flip 4/5 quarterfinal game. The have one of the best statistical defenses in the land. They are hard to score and shoot against. That’s how they win games. That carries them through this game as Rider will eventually have too many empty possessions.

Virginia  Tech +5 over Georgia Tech, 4:00 ESPN Full Court, 1 Unit……followers of the blog know the drill. It’s the Hokies. The game will be close. Take the head start. Strategically playing the dog in Hokie games has become a pasttime for us in recent years. In the spirit of March, just to show I care and that I understand the meaning of it all, I’ll take the bandwagon out for a spin. The Hokies have not played as many close games this year as the last two. And they’ve actually been good short favorites this year. But, in this one they’re getting points, which I love, and, most importantly, they’re playing a struggling Yellowjacket team that’s just 2-5-1 ATS since the end of January. Both teams play good defense and can be hard to score against. I’ll take my chances with the team that has Malcolm Delaney.

Baylor -2, -130, over Texas, 4:00 ESPN, 2 Units…..I think the Bears run the Horns off the floor today. By any grade they’ve been so much better than Texas for about six weeks now.The Bears are 14-8-1 ATS, while Texas is 10-16-1 ATS. Interesting.  Did you know the Horns have only covered three games since Christmas? That includes their 3-point OT win in Austin over Baylor five weeks ago when the Bears covered as 9-ppoint dogs. Texas was playing a whole lot better then, than they are now. Baylor has been improving all season. This is a payback game. Big time.  The first two unit play of March. Tastes so good.

Georgia +1 over LSU, 5:00 ESPN Full Court, 1 Unit……we were wounded a bit the other night when the Dawgs run as a Dog against UK came up short the other night. We’ve still banked quite a bit on this Georgia team and their 15-6 ATS record since mid-December remains an investment risk worth taking. I’m willing to see this fling with Georgia through at least until the end of spring break. Yes, they’re on the road, but they’re playing the worst team in the league. The most improved team in the league should be able to do enough in the end to win.

We’ve spent time today discussing the bubble and the mid-major tournaments. Oh, yeah, dont forget their is this matter of a battle of top-10 teams between Villnova and West Virginia.Villanova remains in the hunt for an NCAA top seed.  I love the home Wildcats in this one. A pure emotional pick. I just dont think Scottie Reynolds loses his last home game. The Cats have been dominant at home the last couple of years. Their losses have only been by a bucket, so worse case scenario I feel like my team here will the ball last with a chance to win. It’s called gambling. They’re not so supposed to be easy. I’m paying a little extra juice to go on the moneyline because it’s the only game I’m jumping on for a couple of hours. I’ll have a larger post in an hour or so detailing a more thourough afternoon card.

Villanova to win over West Virginia, -155, 1.55 Units to win One Unit.

COLONIAL CARNIVAL

Readers of the blog know I have a bit of a fan affair with the Colonial Athletic Association. They know how well their teams do against the spread in the first round of tournament. And they know I’ve been saying most of the winter that as many as five teams could win a game in the Field of 65. That assertion took some hits when the league pretty much got worked over during Bracket Buster weekend. But, that’s not going to make this sectional any less competitive and intense. There arent too many teams playing in the quarterfinals today who dont consider themselves the favorites to win.

Does Old Dominion have a bid into the tournament? Winning the CAA with a 15-3 record gives them a lot of juice. So too does playing a tough non conference slate the includes wins over Charlotte and Georgetown.  The bubble is pretty soft and I’d like to see the lists of 34 best teams that dont include the Monarchs if they need an at large bid in the end. Getting knocked out of this sectional before the championship game might be enough ammunition against this mid-major. Losing a quarterfinal game to 8th seed Towson, a team they’ve beat by double digits twice already this year would certainly be enough ammo.

George Mason and Virginia Commonwealth is a CAA Championship game drawn up in the quarterfinals. These teams have won seven of the last 14 CAA Sectionals, including three in a row and four of the last six. They have a combined 10 championship game appearances in the last eight years. Three times since 2004 these teams played each other in the finals, including twice in the last three years. Yet, here they are in the 4/5 game, but not so much because they’ve fallen back to the pack,  but because the league is having such a competitive year. These teams only played once this year, a Masonhome  win in overtime. No reason to think this wont be another close one. I wonder if VCU wont have too much offense this time around for Mason. They controlled the one game this year until letting it slip away in the final minutes. Playing last night in the 5/12 game might have been the best thing to happen to them. They look ready to go, while Mason really wheezed down the stretch losing six of eight entering this field.

Speaking of teams that need to regain their mojo, how about Northeastern. At one time in the middle of the conference season, the Huskies were the clear top dog in this league and one of the best ATS teams in the land. But they’ve lost four of six games and have not covered a spread in exactly four weeks. They have the 17th best scoring defense in the country and have worked over most comers from the bottom half of the league like today’s foe 7th seed Georgia State. The Huskies have one of the best forward/guard combos around with Matt Janning and Chaisson Allen.

Cinderella lives in the final pod of the day where 11th seed James Madison sprung an upset of sixth seed Drexel in the first round last night. Today’s task 3rd seeded William and Mary. The Tribe could pose an interesting argument if they win today and tomorrow and fall in a close gsame in the finals. They have wins over Wake Forest and Maryland. Their resume might stand out. Of course, what also shows up are bad losses, such as back to back clunkers against Iona and Towson in late February. Still, the Tribe are a legit threat in this sectional. They’re tough to score against and have the capability to really light it up from behind the arc. The Tribe are 15-9-1 ATS, best in the CAA and 8-14 O/U is the most tilted towards low scorers in the league. Could it be as easy as the Tribe and the Under today? Interesting. But they better be careful. JMU now has wins over Drexel, VCU and, guess who, William/Mary back in January when Denzel Bowles dropped 21 on the Tribe. The 6/10 forward has been on fire lately, averaging 20.9 points per game, including 22 points, 10 assists and 6 rebounds in the upset of the Dragons last night. Can he carry the Dukes through another round?

BUBBLE TEAMS SCOREBOARD WATCH

Fans of bubble teams everywhere probably should be wearing their Old Dominion colors. They should most certainly load up on Northern Iowa and Butler pom-poms. These teams are 5th and 8th seeds in the Bracket Matrix. Both are making the Field of 65 regardless of if they win their respective league sectionals or not. Both are playing in their semifinals today and losses by either of them now or in their finals would sap up an at large bid, squeezing the bubble.

Butler plays in the nightcap of the Horizon doubleheader today against 4th seed Wisconsin Milwaukee. The Panthers advanced to this game after beating UIC and Cleveland State in the first two rounds. Butler, of course, got a double play and is playing their first game. They won this league by 6 games and nobody beat them. On their home floor, they are overwhelming favorites to win.

If an upset were to happen, I think either of the teams in the first semifinal today could take them down if they roll their A+ game out their in the championship Tuesday night. Wrigh State always plays well in this sectional and they’ve won 8 of their 11. Seventh seed Detroit looks like a Cinderella who has no business still being alive. But, they’ve got plenty of talent, bolstered by several transfers, incoluding two from the Indiana Kelvin Sampson Shipwreck. I watched both of their games against Butler this season. They could have won both. They should have won at least one of them. Instead, they have a 2-point home loss in OT and a 5-point loss at Hinkle. If they can get by Wright State tonight, keep in mind Detroit has played Butler better than anyone has this season.

In the Missouri Valley, bubble teams hope Northern Iowa’s elite defensive numbers hold up for two more days so they wont need to steal an at large bid. They have the second best scoring defense in the nation. They’re one of the hardest teams to shoot the ball against. That’s the task for 5th seed Bradley today. They only scored 59 and 50 points against the Panthers in their two games this seasons. Have you been playing Northern Iowa and the Under this years? UNI is 18-11 ATS and the Under is 20-6.  I wont lie.’m thinking about a parlay.

Winners get the Illinois State/Wichita State victor in tomorrow’s championship game. It’s hard to believe in a soft bubble year that the Valley isnt a lock to get multi bids into the field. Some feel they should. One mock bracketologist has the Shockers in his field as an at-large bid, moving them into his field as Florida, Illinois and UConn are moved out.

CAN SIENA STAY DOMINANT IN THE MAAC

Siena puts their MAAC dominance on the line when the league quarterfinals tip today. The Saints are two-time defending champions of this sectional. They’ve gone 45-8 against the MAAC the last three years, 33-3 the last two. And, they’ve advanced as far as the round of 32 two years running. They’ve playing until they lose like everyone else this weekend. I hate pulling for chalk, but I think the Field of 65 is way more compelling with them in it. If Old Dominion’s at large case in borderline, then the Saints have no chance since they lack of the schedule and out of conference wins. They are a 13th seed in the Matrix, so they’re not even close to at large range if they cant win this sectional. They cant afford a slip up. The play Manhattan in the second game of the day.

AND IN ACTION ELSEWHERE

Wofford and Appalachian State are the top two seeds in the Southern Conference, holding their quarterfinals today, playing UNC Greensboro and the Citadel respectively. College of Charleston, who beat UNC this year and is coached by Bobby Cremins, faces Chatanooga and West Carolina, who beat Louisville this year, plays Elon in the other games.  The Big Sky and West Coast Conference eliminates two teams in opening round games. The WCC teams go on to play Gonzaga and St. Mary’s tomorrow. The Sun Belt eliminates four in first round games as seeds 5 through 12 compete for quarterfinal spots. And, in the Summit Conference two of their quarterfinal games are played tonight, including top seed and another team I’m rooting for Oakland, whose drive for the Field of 65 only stays alive if the beat 9th seed Missouri-Kansas City. The other top contender IUPUI also plays its quarterfinal game today at Eastern Illinois.

We’ll be keeping an eye and have more on those fields in the upcoming days.

We also have three championship games today in the Atlantic Sun, Big South and Ohio Valley. First game starts at 4:00. I’ll have a separate post highlighting those games. It’ll post before we get within an hour of that first tip.

Cincinnatti at Georgetown, noon ESPN 360. Lines, GTown -7

I am not even sure why I list this as a bubble game. With a 16-13 record, the Bearcats really aren’t going anywhere. They’ve lost consecutive games and six of their last nine. For the third year in a row, a feisty Cincy squad is being chewed up and spit out into the NIT field  by the rugged the Big East schedule. Per the Matrix, one lone bracketologist tabs the Bearcats. But, really, no mocks have them in the field. The matrix doesnt reflect yet that mock’s latest update which has thumbed Cncy all the way to the fifth-from-out of the field. The Bearcats have a strong enough set of wins and schedule strength where if today begins a four game winning streak that lands them eventually in the Big East semifinals, then they might be under consideration. That would give them wins at Georgetown and at MSG over St. John’s, Louisville and Pittsburgh in the BET, using today’s standings as a possible bracket. That would be a damn strong final push. Win a semifinal game and they probably would be a lock for the field.

Texas A/M at Oklahoma, noon ESPN. Lines, A/M -3.5

The Aggies are playing for seeding. They are, IMHE, a lock for the field. Even an 0-2 close to season wont damage them. Important Big 12 seeding is on the line as well. The Aggies could be as high as a 3-seed or as low as a 6-seed in next week’s Big 12 Tournament based on how the games go this weekend. Nationally, the Aggies are holding a spot on the 6th-seed line in the Matrix.

Florida State at Miami, noon ESPN 2. Lines, FSU -2

The Seminoles are in good shape heading into their finale. They’re in every mock field and locked and ready to go on the 8-seed line. But, 22 of the mocks do have them as a double digit seed. Could a loss today to the last place team in the ACC wither their support? If they lose and then drop their ACC Tournament opener, is the bubble strong enough to squeeze them out? Nole fans dont want to find out. With a win, FSU could be as high as the third seed in the ACC Sectional next weekend.

Tulsa at Memphis, 1:00. Lines, Memphis -7.5

Memphis put a charge back into its at large hopes with a big road win at UAB earlier in the week. The mock crowd still isnt enamored with them, however. When the week began, just 2 mocks placed them in the field. Now, they have nine votes, which was enough to move the Tigers up to fifth-from-out. Eight of the 41 mock updates since their win over UAB do have them in, that’s close to 20 percent and a whole lot better than the less than three percent they were pulling on Monday. They have to keep building. For at large consideration, I feel the Tigers need to win this game and advance all the way to the CUSA finals.   

Notre Dame at Marquette, 2:00 ESPN Full Court. Lines, Marquette -7.5

Both teams have been fighting the bubble all February, but as the regular season closes, both are sitting as pretty as they’ve ever been this season. Both had big wins earlier in the week with Marquette throttling Louisville and Notre Dame running away from UConn in the second half.  Something has got to give in this one.  Marquette is seeded 9th in the Matrix and is a unanimous selection. The Irish still have some convincing to do, even as they appear in the Matrix this week for the first time all season. They are seeded 12th with 50 of 74 mocks putting them in the field. A deeper look reveals how secure the Irish have become in the wake of their win over the Huskies this week. Only three of the 41 brackets updated since that win exclude them. In the overall Matrix, the Irish have the support of about two-thirds mocks. In the latest exit poll of most recent voters, their support is over 90-percent. They still need one more win to become a lock, be it in Milwaukee today or at MSG next week in the Big East Tournament.

Syracuse at Louisville, 2:00 ESPN.  Lines, Louisville -1

Is Louisville safe? On the surface, yes. Despite being run off the floor by Marquette earlier in the week, the Cards remain a unanimous Matrix selection with a spot as a 10-seed. In what is becoming a familiar refrain for a lot of teams, I dont think they can afford not to add another win. If they beat the Orange at home, it will be a sweep of Syracuse and lock them in the field. Should they lose and follow it up with a one-and-done in the Big East Tournament, then its going to be an anxious weekend in Derby Land.  That first Big East Tournament game will be against somebody from the Cincinnati, UConn, Seton Hall trio. Also: Today is the last game at Freedom Hall.

UConn at USF, 2:00 ESPN Full Court. Lines, USF -1

One of the more fascinating games of the day. College hoops royalty versus a total interloper. It’s the Matrix 12-seed UConn at 10th-from-out USF. The Bulls could really make a move with a home win over the Huskies. They’re in just two mock bracketologists fields as of today. But, a win today combined with one or two wins next week at the Garden might be enough to push them into the field at the last minute. As for UConn, they need to stop the bleeding with a win over upstart USF.  While their 12-seed placement and 47 mock votes look like they have a groundswell of support, they dont. It’s been crumbling down since the loss to the Irish on Wednesday. Only sixteen of 41 mocks who have re-seeded since that game find the Huskies worthy of a bid. Their support has fallen from more than of the mock crowd to likely less than half or worse. They need a big road win to get that support back and then cement it with at least a win next week at the Garden.  UCHuskies and VooDoo5 have your game set-up in two parts.

Richmond at Charlotte, 2:00. Ruchmond -2

Richmond was a lock for the field before their second half comeback win against Dayton Thursday night. As for Charlotte, not so much. In fact, the 49ers are way back on the rail. They’ve lost 5 of their last 6 games, including getting run off the floor in the second half at Rhode Island the other night. The result?  Not a single vote of support from the mocks that have updated since then. The 49ers need to upset the Spiders and then probably win a couple games in the A10 Tournament next week in Atlantic City to make up for the damage they’ve done on this late season slide.

Mississippi at Arkansas, 4:00 ESPN Full Court. Lines, MSU -1.5

The Rebels are on a three game winning streak, but all the wins came against SEC West teams with a losing records. But, they’re collecting wins and taking advantage of a soft bubble to get in range of an at large. They’re currently fourth-from-out in the Matrix with 12 of 74 votes. But, hey, nine of them have come from mocks updating to include the weekday games. Their overall support is just over 16 percent, but its in the 30-percent range in the latest exit straw poll. It’s not much, but at least they’re trending in the right direction. They better tuck away this winnable road game. Then, they still need at least a win or two in the SEC Tournament.

Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech, 4:00 ESPN Full Court. Lines, GT -4.5

One of the bigger bubble games of the day. It’s the 10th seeded Georgia Tech Yellowjackets hosting the 11th seed Virginia Tech Hokies. Will the loser even be in the Matrix when they reconvene for the ACC Sectional next weekend? I dont think so. Georgia Tech remains a unanimous selection, but they’ve lost five of their last eight games. Add another loss and they finish 7-9 in ACC play. It’s been a steady descent from tournament darkhorse to wrong side of the bubble. If they lose at home and then drop their ACC Sectional opener, the fall will be complete. As for the Hokies, they’re seeing support from 60 out of 74 mocks.  But, 36 of the 41 who have updated since their win over NC State earlier in the week have them in the field. A road win in Atlanta might lock it up. A loss means they will need one, if not two, wins next weekend.

Rhode Island at Umass, 4:00. Lines, URI -7.5

Rhode Island steadied their sinking ship with a dominant second half en route to a win over Charlotte earlier in the week. Did it work? Yes. Thanks to surging support since that outcome, the Rams have gone from out of the field to a consensus 12 seed. Among the 41 most recent mocks, 34 have put the Rams in the field. Its not all good news. Their 48 total mock votes are the second fewest among current Matrix at large invites. A year ago, the Rams were in range of a bid, but suffered a terrible loss to woeful UMass. Conveniently, look who rolls up on the schedule today. The Rams need to put this in the win column, and then not flame out early in the A10 Sectional. If they can do that, they will be the fourth A10 team in the 2010 NCAA Tournament.

UCLA at Arizona State, 4:00 CBS. Lines, ASU -9.5

Arizona State looks to complete a home sweep of the LA schools and set themselves up for a bid with as strong Pac 10 Tournament run. We’ve talked all winter about the league being a one-bid league. A loss by the Devils to the Bruins may beone of  the final nails in that coffin. Even if they win, the Devils still have work to do next week in the league finals. They would have to at least play to their seed and get to the finals.  They’re seventh-from-last out and have only 6 mock votes. But, hey, the good news is five of them have come in the latest round of updates. They’re on somebody’s radar and with as many as four games to play, they need to win at least three of them for any chance of an at-large.

Tennessee at Mississippi St, 6:00 ESPN. Lines, MSU -3.5

You know what’s not good for your NCAA hopes?  Losing to an SEC West team with a losing record, that’s what. Yet, that is exactly what the Bulldogs did the other night in losing to Auburn. This could have been a de facto clinching a bid game, instead they need the win over the Vols just to save face and put them in position for an at large run with an impressive SEC Tournament run. The loss to Auburn kicked the Bulldogs out of the field. They’re second-to-last out with 27 total votes. Only eight of 41 put them after their latest updates.  They ought to get some support back with a win over the Vols, but they are going to be smack dab on the cutline heading into Atlanta next weekend. They cant afford a loss in this one, or be a one-and-done in the SEC finals.

St. Louis at Dayton, 7:00. Lines, DU -11.5

Last call for Dayton. They’ve lost four of six and let a golden win at Richmond slip away in the closing moments Thursday night. Their late season funk has pushed them into a corner. They’re third-from-last out, and only 3 of 31 mocks voting since Thursday night tabbe the Flyers as bid worthy. They need to ease by a tough St. Louis squad and then put a couple of wins together in the A10 finals to really have a chance at an at large bid. A home loss to the Billikens would all but eliminate them from at large contention.

Seton Hall at Providence, 7:00 ESPN 360. Lines, Hall -1.5

We’re still putting Seton Hall on the board as a possible at large. All that means is that, as of today, they have more options than just pulling off a miracle and winning the Big East Tournament.  They are hanging on the bubble by a thread. They need to win this one and still need a major run at Madison Square Garden. Three wins in that field will get them into the semifinals. They might even need to win that one. But, if they can get to the Big East Final Four as pasrt of a five-game winning streak, at least they would be making a much stronger case than they are now. The Big East is fascinating. I feel like 12 teams still have at large hopes, even if they’re somewhat fleeting in the case of teams like Cincinnati and Seton Hall.

Washington at Oregon State, 8:00. Lines, UW -3

Uh, here come the Huskies? They’re still a threat to pull a second bid from the Pac 10. They’re second-from-last out of the field, so they’re in close range. They’re only getting votes from 7 mocks, but all of those have come from the 41 mocks who have updated since Thursday. A win over the Beavers gives the Huskies a four-game winning streak. If they up that to six and qualify for the Pac 10 title game, they might steal an at-large bid.

San Diego State at Air Force, 9:00. Lines, SDSU -13.5

This game wont help the Aztecs. It will kill them if they lose, but they’ll just be running in place with a win. But that’s not a bad thing for Steve Fisher’s team. They’re the last team out of the Matrix field so just maintaining their position gives them a chance to play their way into the field with a solid showing in the MWC Finals. What kind of showing will they need? A semifinal win over the BYU or New Mexico should do the trick.

UAB at UTEP, 9:00. Lines UTEP -6

Do not color me surprised that a Mike Davis coached team fell on its face in a critical game. The Blazers home loss to Memphis earlier in the week was a dagger to their tournament hopes. Getting over the loss wont be easy. They still look good on the surface of the Matrix. They’re an 11-seed with 52 out of 74 votes. But, they have just 20 votes, a smidge less than half, from the crew that’s updated to include the midweek games.  Their support has fallen from 83-percent to 49-percent. Tune in to see how much further it falls if they cant get a road win against the regular season champion on their league. With a win, the Blazers could be making the strongest statement of anybody over the weekend. Even with a win, they cant afford not to play to their seed in the CUSA Tournament. If they lose, its automatic bid or bust. As for the Miners, they’ve climbed as high as a 9-seed in the Matrix. At the heart of their resurgence this season has been the relocation of Derek Caracter to El Paso, where the former Louisville player is making the most of his second chance. I think they can still get a bid with an 0-2 close, but this team has been too good this year for them to do that. Their bid is virtually locked up. If they dont win the CUSA Tournament, it just means a second bid for the first time since the Big East defection for this league.