Seton Hall at UConn, noon, ESPN 3/ESPN Full Court……Its the Freefall Invitational. Both these Big East clubs are in a tailspin, on losing streaks threatening to put their seemingly safe NCAA bid on ice. The Huskies come in on a 4-game skid, while the Pirates have done them one worse on their own 5-game slide. According to the Bracket Matrix, this is a battle of the consensus 8th seed Huskies vs 10th seed Pirates. The loser might not be pushed out completely, but there’s precious room left to fall down the pecking order without landing in NIT Projections. So the winner steadies themselves a bit, but the loser is going to be a world of hurt. Neither schedule eases up immediately after. The Huskies, for example, play at Louisville and at Syracuse in their next two games. A loss to the Pirates could just be another wrung on what could be as much as a 7-game losing streak. Can the defending champs be facing a must win game on the first Saturday of February? I think so. Regardless, they’re going back to the drawing board in hopes to save their season.

Xavier-Memphis, 1:00, Fox Sports Ohio……Like the game above, this contest pits a pair of the final at large teams on the Bracket Matrix when the 10-seed Memphis Tigers host 12-seed Xavier. Memphis is trying to rebound after losing to Southern Miss earlier in the week in a showdown for first place in Conference USA. I caught that game and was impressed enough with both squads that I cant believe we’ll find 38 better at large candidates in a month’s time. But this league is goofy. Its not deep enough to get more than those two bids, but its competitive enough top to bottom that going on the road is as dangerous as any major league. Two years ago, Memphis went 13-3 in the league, but lost in the first round of the CUSA sectional and was relegated to the NIT. A year ago, they were just 10-6 in league play, but streaked to the tournament championship to net the automatic NCAA bid. This year, they appear to be in between those two clubs. They cant afford to many more losses, however, they have a chance for a nice bubble win in this February non-conference game with Xavier. The Musketeers have the talent and game to be safe in the field, but have been slumping for nearly two months since that brawl against Cincinnati. The loser of this game likely falls out of most mock brackets during the next update and will be scrambling to impress the rest of the way.

Maquette-Notre Dame, 1:00, CBS………Notre Dame has put together quite a little run here in the middle of winter. They’ve beaten Syracuse and won at Seton Hall and UConn on this three game inning streak that have them in the top-4 of the Big East standings. They have a chance to puncuate this streak with another big win when they host Marquette. That 6-3 Big East record is sparkly and its hard to imagine a conference club losing out on a bid with a winning mark in this league. I think Notre Dame is a safe bet to make the NCAAs right now. This, despite only being a consensus 12 seed on the Bracket Matrix and only 13 of 61 total voters placing them on the 10-line or better. They’re walking right on the edge, but they have a manageable enough slate where they could overcome a home loss to Marquette, a projected 3-seed. If they can notch this win, the Irish will have a ton of breathing room. I’d expect them to be a sinlge digit seed on most everybody’s next bracket. From there, only a total collapse with a series of bad losses would knock them out.

Arkansas at LSU, 1:45, ESPN 3/ESPN Full Court.…..Ladies and Gents, meet the final team to make the consensus Bracket Matrix, the Arkansas Razorbacks. The Hogs are listed on 25 of 61 brackets, the smallest amount of any at large in the consensus. They sit on the 12-seed line. The simple road map to an at large bid when you’re trying to charge from the back of the bubble rail has not changed: Win your marquee home games, add in enough winnable road games, then profit in the NCAAs. Arkansas filled the first half of that equation with an 8-point home win over Vanderbilt earlier in the week. Now, its bag a winnable road game time. A loss to the Tigers wouldnt be a death knell of any kind, but it would keep the Hogs running in place at best with the mock bracketology crowd. Thats not the best position to be in when you’re barely on a third of the mock brackets to begin with.

UNLV at Wyoming, 4:00, Mountain West Network…..Wyoming is looking to repeat Colorado State’s feat from a week ago. Spring a home court upset against a Mountain West power, parlay that into good favors from the mock bracket crowd and burst into their consensus field. The Rams beat San Diego State a week ago and now sit on the 12-seed of the Matrix on 40 of 61 ballots. Wyoming looks for the same type of result and momentum should they topple the Rebels. The Pokes have guady looking 17-5 record, but with road tests yet at CSU, New Mexico, SDSU and a rematch with the Rebs in Vegas its going to be hard to emerge with a better than .500 league mark. They have to win this game and maybe even snare a road upset against that above slate. As good as this league is, I just dont see a .500 conference mark cutting the mustard and thats where Wyoming will be if they cant win this game and pick up a big road win or two down the stretch.

St Louis at Dayton, 5:00, Fox College Sports….I dont know where to begin with the Atlantic 10. I deftly avoided the topic above when talking about Xavier, but I guess I have to attempt to figure it out if I’m going to include this game on our bubble list. I have not been watching much A10 hoops yet this year. Which might be a good thing as I have yet been subjected to Rick Majerus strangling the holy life out of a basketball game. But, he’s destroyed enough games in his favor that the Bilikens are a legit threat to make the Big Dance. So are about four other A10 teams, Dayton included, but I wouldnt bet on anything more than 3 bids when its all said and done. This is a battle of the Bracket Matrix 11-seed Dayton Flyers vs 12-seed St Louis, so the bubble implications are obvious. Despite their better seed, the Flyers might be on shakier ground. They’re only on 48 of 61 ballots, while the Billikens are on 59. With three A10 teams currently double digit seeds in the Matrix and Temple sitting on the 8-seed line, expect a series of bubble battles this month to figure this out.

Iowa State at Oklahoma 6:00, ESPN 2…..Its funny how the fluid state of the early bubble transforms your identity. For most of the last several weeks, ISU was the team on the hunt, looking for a few resume wins to raise their cause. Well, they’ve notched a fair share of those, notably a home sweep of the Kansas schools during the last week and a home win over Texas a month ago. They’re an 11-seed on the Bracket Matrix and a near unanimous selection at this point. Now, they’re the hunted and a chance to be some other school’s resume win. Oklahoma looks to jumpstart a possible late surge onto the bubble with a win in Norman over the ‘Clones. They’re 3-6 league mark has to find a way to get to .500, but even today, they pull in five mock bracket votes and sit a distant, but not insurmountable, 8th from last cut from the Bracket Matrix. The Big 12 is getting at least 5 bids. Right now, that fifth bid is Iowa State’s to lose. We’ll see if the Sooners can at least loosen the grip with a whole month of regular season left to play.

Real quickly, some other games to bookmark tomorrow……… Can USF get a huge resume win over Georgetown? Nobody is paying any attention to the Bulls, but if they topple the team I feel is the best in the Big East, then its time to focus on them…….. Indiana travels to Purdue, but we’re not hear to talk about IU being on the bubble. At least not yet. Another road loss might have their bid in jeoparady. Meanwhile, the Boilers desperately need a marquee win. They’re currently a Matrix 10-seed, so a home loss to the rival Hoosiers could sting in some many different ways………Out west,  Arizona plays at Stanford. Somebody from the Pac-12 is getting a bid into the Dance, right? I dont feel this will be a one bid league, but who deserves a bid today from the league will be a lot different than a month from now. But, on the heels of their win over Cal last night, if Arizona gets a tough road sweep of the Bay Area schools, then that would be a huge feather in their cap. As of now, Cal is the only Pac-12 school in the Bracket Matrix. Arizona isnt getting a single vote. But if the Cats beat Stanford and Cal losses to ASU later in the week, who knows how the mocks will vote on the Pac-12 schools?

Not everyone appreciates Andre Igoudala's defense

At the end of the 2010 season, Eddie Jordan was fired as the 76er head coach for taking a team prominently featuring Andre Igoudala, Elton Brand, Thaddeus Young, Jrue Holliday, and Louis Williams to a record of 27-55. Jordan, a disciple of the “Princeton Offense”, had famously bragged to a beat reported, when asked who the point guard is “that everyone on the floor is a point guard in this offense”. Never mind that players like Brand and Samuel Dalembert were odd picks for an offense that prized shooting and passing at every position, it leaned on Igoudala, an athletic wing known for his defense, to become the team’s dominant scorer. For those familiar with his work in Washington, the flip-side wasn’t much of a surprise: Philadelphia was the 8th worst defensive team in the league, allow three more points per 100 possessions than the average club.

Without any significant personnel changes, newly minted head coach Doug Collins was able to shave five points off that mark in his first season, landing the Sixers in the top ten in the NBA. In this season to date, the Sixers have shaved an whopping ten points per 100 possessions from last year – allowing eight points fewer than the average, and four less than the second-best Chicago Bulls. At their current pace, the Sixers would have the best defense since advanced stats have been kept (eight years), by a mind-shattering six points per possession over the next follower. Even adjusted for the overall decrease in offense this year, the Sixers allow 9% fewer points than an average team – the next best mark in the eight year span is 7%.

The change hasn’t come in personnel – all six of this season’s most frequently used players played on Jordan’s team, and five of them (all but Jodie Meeks) were on that team’s top six leading minute-getters. The Sixers are pretty average on the glass and forcing turnovers – where they’ve made their mark is opponents shooting percentage, where they lead the league.

It seems odd, as this seems, in many ways, to be a deficient team in terms of defensive talent. Elton Brand has never carried the reputation of being a stout defender, and an early injury to center Spencer Hawes has left them frequently deploying a front-court pairing of Brand and fellow defensive liability Thaddeus Young. Each standing 6’9″, it’s a grossly under-sized pairing that shouldn’t be able to stand up to better interior offenses.

Watching the team provides some clues – the Sixers are perhaps the best perimeter defense in the league (the fact that teams shoot under 30% from beyond the arc, best in the league is a hint), and excellent help defenders. The ball is nearly constantly pressured, and offenses frequently need to work in order to get into their offensive sets, often with half the shot clock expiring before they get into their set. Point-guard Jrue Holliday, built like a 6’4″ spider can prevent most opposing point guards from getting where they want to go (when properly motivated, he has a tendency to play down to his competition), and the next time Andre Igoudala gets taken to the basket will probably be the first.

It’s often odd to say that a player with steeply declining usage rates has significantly increased how  immensely he effects his team, but in Andre Igoudala, that seems to be the case. Since the 2010 season, Igoudala is taking nearly five fewer shots a game, and also attempting two fewer free throws per game. However, his defense has been other-worldly. 82games.com tracks “Opponent PER” – the player efficiency rating of the player that a specific player is asked to guard. Compared to a league average of about 15, Igoudala allows his opponents a measly 8.4.  In words, players guarded by him perform roughly half as well offensively as when they’re not. What’s also worth reminding is that this stat is flawed – one could post sparkling opponent PER number by guard Oliver Miller for 35 minutes. But that flaw is probably failing to account for how dominant Igoudala is – he’s not guarding defensive specialists or space-eating big men, he’s nearly always drawing the opponent’s dominant wing – he’s guarding Wade, Deng, Joe Johnson, and Carmelo Anthony. Toss in his offense, and he out-performs his opponent by over 10 points of PER – fifth in the NBA. The only players who out-perform their opponents by as much are Lebron James, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, and Derrick Rose. Not bad for a guy scoring thirteen points a game. If none of this is persuasive, check The Igoudala list, a catalog of his performance against the NBA elite (hint: they shoot 38%).

Having the NBA’s single most dominant defender is a great start, but a single defender isn’t enough to explain the vast jump the Sixers have made. SB Philly extensively documented the vast improvement of Jrue Holliday on defense, using similar methodology as above. The summary? Holliday has become a slightly above average defender, allowing 13.5 PER (it has risen some since the linked post), after allowing 19 last year.

Offensively, the Sixers have improved substantially as well, moving from below-average to substantially above average, as measured by points per 100 possessions. Partly explained by the ascendancy of Louis Williams – one of the best three-point shooters in the NBA – the Sixers survive, despite poor rebounding and few foul shots, by leading the league in turnover rate. Clearly, Jrue Holliday deserves his share of the credit here, but Igoudala, Williams, and Thaddeus Young have all cut their turnovers per game by nearly a full mistake a night. Maybe that’s what happens when they aren’t all being point guards?

The 76ers have, to date, played a weak schedule, but after holding the Bulls to under 90 points on their home floor, they’ve shown that they have the ability to to continue. The schedule gets unquestionably harder, and the club probably won’t finish win the conference (today, they stand a game out of first). But they are, at this point, the prohibitive favorite in the East, even despite a resurgent Celtics club.

I’m not clear on what our format is going to be. Expect a couple Bubble centric posts a week in addition to general hoop columns and a strategic game preview or two. And, there is also Chitownblue lurking in the JCB Strategic Engagement And Creative Room, where he’ll continue to pump out NBA and Big 10 focused basketball pieces. Once he’s done ridding our kitchen of mayonaisse. By the time we figure out a format, it will March. At that point, there is no format. Just chaos–in a good way–and a Gatlin Gun barrage of posting as we go from league tournaments to the Big One.

Bottomline? Thanks for sticking with us during our ‘sabbatical’ of sorts. Enjoy the rest of the hoops season and if you’ve got an idea or thought for us, dont hesitate to hit us up on the JCB Twitter feed or drop us a line at Jamie@JustCoverBlog.com. With that out of the way, lets talk hoops:

 Is Syracuse the best team in the country Big East?

Are we sure Syracuse is hands down the best team in the Big East, let alone the country? I’m not. Not because I think the Orange are overrated, but I feel its because Georgetown seems to be so underrated right now. In a one-off for the Big East title, I think this is a toss-up. The Hoyas methodically throttled a struggling UConn team last night and after a series of disappointing Marches, look to be a factor next month in both the Big East and NCAA Tournaments. They play active defense, holding foes to 43.5 EFG%, 14th best in the land, and have KenPom’s 10th most efficient defense. Three point shooting is closed when you’re playing the Hoyas. They force steals on the perimeter and block a fair share of shots. In Jason Clark and Hollis Thompson, they have two versatile and good shooting scorers. They go 9-deep, bringing in a crop of four freshmen off the bench, highlighted by Otto Porter, perhaps the next, great Big East star. When this group of freshmen are shooting the ball well, this is a darn near impossible team to beat. They have a lot of effective size, get really good guard play and most importantly are oozing with talent. Everybody that sees legit minutes was at least a 4-star recruit per Rivals. If only they can overcome recent March demons. But, we’re still in February and the Hoyas stand two games behind the Orange. Their one and only regular season meeting of the season is next Wednesday in the Carrier Dome. KenPom only gives the Hoyas a 22-percent chance of winning, calling instead for a 7-point loss. I like their chances better than the tempo free guru. If you give me +7, for example, I am buying. On the same night, Duke/UNC and Kansas/Baylor face each other, but this vintage Big East rivalry is the main game I want to watch. I feel the Hoyas are better. Hopefully we’ll get a rematch next month at Madison Square Garden in the Big East Tournament.

Murray State Eventual Tournament Seed: Over/Under 4.5

I expect this to become a huge talking point, especially if the Racers continue their undefeated run. As of now, I could make an eventual case of them being as high as #2 or even as low as relegated to an 8/9 first round game. Honestly, I can draw a road map that has them not making the field altogether. Seriously, if they drop a regular season OVC game, lose the Bracketbuster match at home vs St Mary’s and fall before the OVC Championship game (like they did a year ago), it’s going to be one nervous week for a team that’s had a heady national ranking virtually the whole season. Three years ago, a 4-loss Murray sqaud dominated the OVC, lost to Morehead in the OVC sectionals and didnt sniff an at large bid. I think there’s going to be too much popular sentiment in the selection room in Murray’s favor if they need an at large bid, so barring a total collapse the next month, they will be in. If they’re undefeated, they will receive major props for a win over the west an coast Gaels and could very well be a #2 or #3 seed. Lose that game, but win the rest including the OVC Tournament and I think we’re looking at #4 or #5. A 2-loss Murray team would slide even farther.

But, what do I know? Dont answer that. Lets instead look towards the Bracket Matrix for guidance. Right now, the consensus does not favor a higher seed for the Racers. Murray State checks in on their 6-seed line. A total of 15 mock brackets seed the Racers as a #7 or worse. They peak as a #3 seed, but only on four mock bracket ballots. Right now, Over 4.5 looks like a solid play. Regardless, I am looking forward to watching them play Southeast Missouri State tonight. The Redhawks are 7-2 in league play, good for in second place in the OVC right now and its the first of two meetings between the teams before Murray plays St Mary’s in BracketBuster.

They can win Tournament games, but can they make the field?

Speaking of midmajor teams, I have made a point to catch the acts of Iona, Long Beach State and Cleveland State at least a couple different times in recent weeks. These teams are really good. All three can games in the NCAA Tournament. But, I dont know if any of them would earn an at-large bid if they fail to win the auto bid in their respective league tournaments. The Horizon, Big West and MAAC sectionals will all carry extra weight next month because of the damage these squads could do to your eventual bracket. Long Beach may merit an at-large based on their strength of schedule, especially if they add a road win at Creighton in Bracket Busters. The Gaels and Vikings wont get similar profile boosts from that event and likely have little at-large chance. Right now, these are three of my favorite teams to watch. I hope they all make the field. And I look forward to betting something like +5 or so on each of them in 4/13 games next month. I expect to cover two out of those three.

Bubble Game Of The Night In Provo

 Sticking within the midmajor ranks, there is a major bubble game this evening. Its on the west coast, so get some coffee brewed or whatever energy drink concoction you’re filling your body with these days. The 11pm tip might be hard to survive, but when BYU hosts Gonzaga this evening, it will prove to be one of the most crucial bubble games of the month. The Cougars might be enjoying their new hoop digs in the WCC, but their current third place standing in that league isnt doing them any bubble favors. After two straight home losses to Loyola Marymount and St. Mary’s, the Cougars are hanging on to a mock bid by a shoestring. Their road win at Virginia Tech in between those league home losses isnt giving them any push. They are one of the final at-large bids on the current Bracket Matrix, on just 36 of 55 total ballots, good for third least among the at-large crowd.  Frankly, the Cougars dont have much of a resume. Their 6 best wins are Nevada, at Utah, at Loyola Marymount, UC Santa Barbara and at Va Tech. Most at large teams they’re competing with on the bubble could beat that. St Mary’s thumped them twice in their attempts to get a marquee conference win in their new league. Now, they get to tangle with Gonzaga. They play the Zags twice this month, but tonight’ game at home represents their best chance for a resume win. A win tonight might keep the wolves dressed in mock bracketogists clothing at bay. But a third home WCC loss would likely push them out of the consensus Bracket Matrix during the next comprehensive update after the weekend. Other than the road rematch in Spokane, the Cougars wont have a shot at another resume game, so how would they get back into anybody’s good graces? Its too bad we cant commission an extra bracket buster game right now between BYU and, say, Colorado State. The former conference mates are two of the last teams on most mock brackets, if they’re included. KenPom forecasts a slight BYU win, giving them a 61-percent chance at the W in a 75-72 score. I dont know about that. The Cougs have already lost twice on this floor in league play by double digits. Vegas favors them by -3 as well. I dont know. This feels like it would be an upset should BYU win. I’m leaning (but not picking. yet) to the Zags, despite BYU’s historic home court success. Regardless, tonight will go a long way in determining if BYU can get an at-large bid or if they’re relegated to must win league tournament status.

That’s all I got for now. Chitownblue will be around later to drop the dime on what’s going on with the Philadelphia 76ers. Here’s a hint: They’re winning gamblers a lot of moolah right now. And speaking of that, we’ll have a few picks for tonight’s game, so keep refreshing that Twitter feed. Hey, we won on Georgetown last night, so we have some winnings that we must blow. Probably on the Clippers……

Out in the real world of the Internet, where more bracketologists live, the mass mock bracket crowd isnt lining up for the Horns either. In the Bracket Matrix, updated right before the weekend which was after Texas’ win over Iowa State, but before the Baylor loss Saturday, the Horns are fourth from last cut from the consensus field, but more troubling were on just 19 of 52 mock brackets. In the smaller straw poll sample size of voters who updated between the Horns win last Tuesday and the latest Matrix update, the Horns did have the support of 5 of 9 bracketogists. Hey, thats better than half. The base of support has to begin somewhere. Of course, how do those mocks feel now in the wake of the Baylor loss? And how will all them feel should the Horns get wiped off the floor by the powerful Tigers these evening? Failure to reel in a marquee scalp–something the Horns resume truly lacks unless we’re counting Temple and Iowa State these days–will be a turnoff and teams like Colorado State, Minnesota, Notre Dame and even Oklahoma and Iowa State in their own league will have passed them on the pecking order when February starts.

Texas is a weird team to figure. KenPom.com loves this team. The Horns are ranked 20th in his overal ratings, equipped with a top-30 efficient offense and defense. They’re projected to win all but one of their remaining games–including tonight when they’re given a slim 51-percent chance of coming out on top 73-72. However, the RPI measurement isnt as impressed. Texas checks in a 69th in their rankings,  just behind Bucknell and Ohio and right ahead of South Dakota State. They are just 2-7 against teams ranked higher than them in the RPI. The discconect might be the fact the Horns are 0-6 in game decided by 6 points or less. The two things they dont do well per KenPom’s tempo free stats burying them. They’re the worst defensive rebounding team in the Big 12, allowing foes to grab 36-percent of their misses. Thats an astonishingly bad 276th worst in the land. They also cant guard without putting you on the free throw line. Their defensive free throw rate is 43.3%, 292nd nationally. They’re giving up 24.62 FT attempts in conference play, and in their losses this year its 30.87 FTAs per game.  They 276th nationally in fouls comitted. Those issues could be factors again this evening against a Missouri team thats the best free throw shooting team in the conference and also armed Ricardo Ratliffe, the Big 12′s 2nd leading offensive rebounder.

Will it haunt them in another swing and miss at a resume win? I dont know, I’m not here to predict this game. No, really, I’m not. I’m here to obsessively track the tournament bubble, and this contest is a big barometer for the Horns eventual chances. Yes, the slate eases up a bit in upcoming weeks. But if the Horns cant win tonight, you have to wonder if they can do much better than break even the rest of the way. Speaking of that, lets take a look: Texas Tech, At A/M, KSU, at OU, at Okie St, Baylor, at Texas Tech, OU, at Kansas. If they lose tonight, do they have the chops to do better than 5-4? You could see them shooting out on a 3-game winning streak after tonight. The pair with the Sooners and matchup issues with Romero Osby and Andrew Fitzgerald on the defensive glass loom large. Baylor and at Kansas would look like sure losses. A loss tonight followed by a 5-4 close would make them 18-13, 8-10 in league play. I think its going to be hard to crack the bracket with that resume. However, a 5-4 close with a win tonight would put them at .500 against a true round robin in one of the toughest leagues in the land. That might be enough when the regular season ends. The line is thin on the bubble’s edge and tonight’s game for Texas is a huge swing on that track. Get tonight’s resume win over Missouri  and they might be able to cruise in just take care of business mode to a bid. A loss and they’ll have to hustle the rest of the way to break even in Big 12 play and their pursuit of an NCAA bid might not be successul until they knock off one of the power teams–KU, Missouri or Baylor–in the Big 12 quarterfinals in five weeks.

Guys don't get carried off the floor on people's shoulders much these days. 43 points will do that.

Any recent fan of Big Ten athletics is undoubtedly familiar with the senseless pap that gets thrown around in the name of the conference. Something about the rust-belt Midwestern sprawl of the conference prompts senseless talking-heads to ascribe a slew of blue-collar sensibilities to the style of play in THE BIG TEN CONFERENCE (this should be said in your best Merrill Hoge “NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE” voice). The assertion is that the physical, brawny Big Ten will dissemble any newfangled wrinkle of innovation. Lately, in football, this has been a sop – the conference is down, not just compared to it’s SEC rivals, and it seems like a minimum level of competence in any scheme (TACKLING works in the BIG TEN CONFERENCE) is enough to warrant success. Further, it’s often a lie – the image of the conference is between the tackles old-school football which really only applied to Wisconsin this past year.

In basketball, however, this is close to law – the conference DOES play slower, it DOES play more physical (witness a “soft team like Michigan’s recent win over MSU for an example) and it DOES punish teams that can’t match these qualities (see: Northwestern’s significant difficulties in taking down more than one good team a year). What worse is that for the past few years, the conference has been brutally deep, with teams from the top echelon struggling to win on the road, anywhere.

Last week, the Big Ten had four teams ranked in the top 25, and every single team dropped a road game to an unranked opponent. Three of these losses came to Iowa, Nebraska, and Northwestern, and the combined conference record of the victors was an uninspiring 11-14. These games have been unforgiving, and it’s not just because the favorite plays poorly: Ohio State lost a game that saw them take 21 more shots than Illinois, Indiana out-shot Nebraska by 14 percentage points, and Michigan State posted their best eFG% of Big 10 play against Northwestern. The opposition has just found ways to win – from Illinois conference-worst shooting team hitting 60% from the floor, Nebraska’s 275th ranked offensive rebounding attacking winning the battle on the boards, and Northwestern’s porous defense forced turnovers on 25% of the Spartans possessions. It’s just a jungle out there.

What does it mean going forward? Since going to an 18-game conference slate, the conference has been won by a team that goes 15-3 or better in three of four years, with the lone exception being 2010, when three times tied at 14-4 and a fourth finished at 13-5 – the most top-heavy performance in league history. With every favorite sitting with at least two conference losses a mere third of the way through the season, this figures to be the lowest win figure to take the conference since the expanded conference slate. Illinois sits at the top with one loss, but with two to play against both Wisconsin and Michigan, road-trips to Indiana and Ohio State, and a game against Michigan State, some losses are coming. The bet here is that you see the conference’s first 13-win champion since the expanded conference slate.

Onto the power-rankings:

1. Ohio State 16-3 (4-2).

The Buckeyes grabbed 37% of their own misses, and won the turnover battle by ten against the Illini, only to watch a team with a 51.5% eFG shoot 72.2%, lead by Brandon Paul (45.9% eFG on the year) shooting 100%. Really. 100%. He also tripled his average free-throw attempts (yes, this was officiated by Ted Valentine), scoring a preposterous 43 points on 15 shots. There is nothing to take from this game other than to say “when they play against the single-best shooting display in conference history, the Buckeyes will lose”. I think we knew that?

2. Michigan State 15-4 (4-2)

Welcome to the new Big Ten, where losing two in a row doesn’t get you demoted. The Spartans still have turnover problems (which are near solely responsible for their last two losses), but the good news is that the shooting is rounding into shape. Unfortunately, apparently the Spartans haven’t round into shape quite yet, according to Tom Izzo. Unless that shape is round.

3. Michigan 15-4 (4-2)

Yes, they have the same record as the Spartans, and yes, they just beat the Spartans. This is still a team that hasn’t shot particularly well for nearly a month – we’ll wait to declare their supremacy until after their trip to the Breslin Center. The good news is that despite not shooting well, they do keep winning – somewhat uncharacteristic for a John Beilein team. They do need to watch the turnovers – they literally turned the game over to the Hawkeyes.

4. Illinois 15-3 (4-1)

Despite being in first place, this team still inspires some doubt, and it’s not just Bruce Weber’s presence. The win over Ohio State is great, but it was such an aberrant performance, it’s hard to take seriously. Other than that, they were slaughtered by Purdue, and barely slid by Northwestern, Minnesota, and Nebraska. This is a tourney team, but they won’t be in the conference race when all is done.

5. Indiana 15-4 (3-4)

The losers of three straight, the giant killers seem to be capable of losing a game in any fashion these days. First, they were destroyed on the offensive glass by Minnesota on a night where their shooting seemed to abandon them, hitting only 43% of their shots – a poor mark for this team. Against Ohio State, they still didn’t shoot well, but all of a sudden, got torched by the Buckeye offense. Against Nebraska, they played great shooting defense – they just got waxed on the glass again. The concerning part is that they’re starting to foul again – committing nearly 40 against Minnesota and Ohio State.

6. Wisconsin 15-5 (4-3)

Wisconsin stabilized from their three-game losing stream with a rare win at Purdue, a narrow win at home against Nebraska, and a destruction of Northwestern. They still can’t make shots, and they still can’t rebound very well – they just guard the rim extremely well. Any game involving them at this point is a race to 50.

7. Purdue 14-5 (4-2)

Like Wisconsin, Purdue is significantly being held back by poor shooting – Robbie Hummel made fewer than 33% of his shots against the Badgers in their home loss. The defense isn’t the same as it’s been during the rest of the Painter era, and the Boilermakers need solid shooting to pull them through. When they don’t get it, they largely fail to compete.

8. Iowa 11-9 (3-4)

Iowa continues their slow climb up the rankings. Three wins with two on the road is more than we can say for anyone else below them.

9. Minnesota 14-5 (2-4)

Minnesota’s win at Indiana was perhaps the most startling result of the conference season – one that saw Rodney Williams finally step out with an increased role in the offense. This still isn’t a good team, and the same problems persist – no point guard, no outside shooting, and an unconcerned lump in the middle.

10. Northwestern 12-6 (2-4)

Yes, they just got their annual “big win”, so it seems odd to drop them. But perhaps no team embodies the “won’t work in the Big Ten” maxim like these guys. Wisconsin hasn’t been able to hit the broadside of a barn for a month, and Northwestern just allowed them to shoot a 61% eFG, and spotted them 14 FT attempts (they average 9 a game). As long as guys like Coble, Williams, Shurna, and Crawford are around, they’ll always be able to almost go .500, but that generation is on their way out, and they still haven’t broken through. It seems like it’s time for a change.

11. Nebraska 10-8 (2-5)

Last year, the Huskers were a dangerous team at home, with mostly the same cast of players. With a big win over Indiana, maybe they can reclaim that.

12. Penn State 9-10 (1-5)

Maybe they should just rest up for February 11th’s matchup against Nebraska in Happy Valley.

Are you buying any of that? Probably not. But the rushing the court meme instantly came to me as the horn sounded and Husker fans romped towards center court. I cant even remember the last time somebody did that after beating Indiana. Most Indiana fans are more worried this morning about actual basketball issues than my quasi silver lining that we now have proof that beating IU is big news again. Nope. We’re all wondering whats become of our magical, dream season. A 3-game losing streak, highlighted by bad losses to Minnesota and Nebraska bookending a troubling, non competive beatdown at the hands of Ohio State has the pretty Bloomington sky a-falling.

Honestly, though, I am not taking that much umbrage with the loss. I did after the Minnesota loss because the team just didnt play well, they looked sloopy and almost played like a win was a foregone conclusion. The Gophers pretty much controlled the game, in Bloomington no less, the whole way. Last night was a different story. IU played well in the first half to forge a lead. Then, they played even better basketball for the first 13-14 minutes or so of the second half.  The win seemed in hand. Then, total meltdown. The Hoosiers began coming away with empty possessions. They missed a key free free throw. Nebraska hit a pair of clutch free throws. A game winning layup attempt by Jordan Hulls was blocked by the rim. It all seemed so last season, which isnt good. But road losses, even inexplicable ones like last night, happen, especially with a team that still needs to figure out how to close consistently on the road. As a nasty puncuation mark to an on-going three game losing streak, however, the final result is all that matters, not necessarily the first 34 minutes of the game when the Hoosiers looked like a polished, top-15 team and forged an 11-point lead.

So, what gives? Whats been happening on this skid? To my untrained basketball eye, here are the problems, in a nutshell: Verdell Jones needs to start dribbling with his head up. Victor Oladipo needs to stop trying to make the game winning play on every touch. They cant lose sight of Cody Zeller down the stretch and not get the ball in his hands. Jordan Hulls needs to stop playing like a spaz like he did last night. Seriously, isnt there a house somewhere on Dunn Street where we can find him something to calm his nerves? When I was in school there was, so somebody hook him up please. As a team, they need more commitment to defense. Basically the team appears to be finally struggling under the weight of expectations and being the target. Crean, a spaz in his own right, needs to find a way to calm the team down, restore its confidence and get them back to playing with the carefree, we’re back so deal with it, style that had propelled them into the top-10.

Bottomline, its still January. A future NCAA bid has not been burned up. At least not yet. Every team goes through struggles and the winter blahs. I’d trade losing last night for wins over Purdue, Illinois and Michigan State during the final month. I’d rather see the team peak in four weeks, primed for runs in both the Big 10 and NCAA Tournaments. The team we’ve seen the last three games doesnt seem capable of that. But, the team the hit the court in the preceding games absolutely did. Its hard to not be concerned about this losing streak. But, getting back to my sentiment at the top, its also nice to not only be nervous during an IU game again, but also feel the sting of losing a game you should win and seeing the other teams rush the floor as a result. There’s a long way to go. The Hoosiers have bigger games to get ready for. I’m still enjoying this ride, losing streak be damned, and look forward to see how they respond against Penn State this weekend.

• Indiana Is Back, Nebraska Fans Storm Court (January 19, 2012)
• Big 10 Hoops: Michigan State at Michigan (January 17, 2012)

For the first time since 1998, Michigan and Michigan State meet on the hardwood as ranked opponents. It’s been a long time. But, for most of the 1980s and 1990s matches with both in the rankings were fairly regular from the Joubert/Skiles rivalry to the winter of 1990 when Michigan was defending national champs while MSU streaked to the Big 10 title behind Steve Smith to those games in the early days of the Izzo tenure/final days of the Steve Fisher tenure. Michigan Hoops has been in the wilderness, but John Beilein seems to have led them out of the forest and back into NCAA relevancy. In some ways, tonight’s game is a must win for both sides. Michigan State needs the win to keep its early lead in the Big 1o race and stay ahead of Ohio State with the first of two matches with the Buckeyes looMing still three weeks out in the distance. As for Michigan, they dont want that third league loss and fall too far off the lead pack. But a loss tonight really sets up the chance for a protracted losing streak. Coming in off a defeat at Iowa, the Wolverines face a stretch after tonight that includes five road games in six starts, including stops at Arkansas, Purdue, Ohio State and a rematch in East Lansing against the Spartans. The Chicken Little in me wonders if a loss tonight wont be part of something akin to a 5-game skid and losses in six of seven. If so, look for the Wolverines, despite such heady preseason expectations, to be on the wrong side of the bubble by early February.  A win tonight would give them immeasurable breathing room should the upcoming three weeks be short on victories. It’s a rivalry game.  Get your talking points straight. Before our prediction, lets take a look at the protagonists this evening.

MICHIGAN STATE AT MICHIGAN, 7:00, ESPN. LINES, MSU -2, 0/U 132

What a difference a year makes for Michigan State. A year ago, the Spartans season devolved into a disaster, at least by modern day, Tom Izzo Era standards up in East Lansing. They dropped to .500 in league play, were bounced in ugly fashion in the first round of the NCAAs by UCLA and pretty much never looked like a cohesive basketball team for much of the season. This year? They look primed to return to the top of the Big 10 standings and rediscover their famous March Mojo. A year ago, the Spartans had the 62nd and 30th offensive and defensive rated efficiency teams in the land per KenPom. This season, they’re 7th and 9th, one of a few teams ranked in the top-10 in efficiency on both ends of the floor.  A year ago their offensive EFG% was 190th in the land. This season, they’re sharpshooters by comparison, ranking 48th in the country. In 2010-11, their defensive EFG% was 112th in the nation, while this year their EFG% on D is 23rd nationally. They’re a little bit better at shooting the 3-ball this year, but the biggest gains have been their 2-point field goal marksmanship having improved from 46.7% and 214th in the land a season ago to 52%, 48th in the country this year.

I’m sure we can dig up a bunch more hard core numbers to further back the on-court improvement, but I dont think any of that even matters. I think there is a chemistry difference between the two squads, and that’s been the biggest factor behind this year’s Green and White Renaissance. Last year’s club was caught up in their individual games, their pro prospects and never seemed to be on the same page with Izzo. The coach kicked Korrie Luscious off the team, but he was popular among his teammates. Lets just put it this way, whats the Over/Under on number of times last winter, post Luscious expulsion, that the players with Korrie in tow, got together, passed a joint around a circle and bitched about their asshole head coach. Whatever you’re setting the number at, I’m taking the Over. All of those guys are gone, replaced by fresh faces or holdovers with larger roles. And its amazing what can be accomplished when coaches and players like each other.  I know this aint twitter, but that deserves a #justsayin’.

As for the actual players, Draymond Green is putting in an All Big 10 First Team caliber performance. He’s avergaing 15.8 points per game and 10.1 boards.  He’s had 10 double-doubles this season, including three in a row coming into tonight. He’s had his own leadership aneurysm, his head coach is so in love, he calls him by cute nicknames like Day Day and, by his example, this team’s performance has done a 180 from last year. His frontcourt play has been backed up by a stellar guard unit. Keith Appling, Brandon Wood and Travis Trice arent as explosive scorers as last year’s guards were, but they’re more efficient, play within themselves and the game circumstances a bit better and turn the ball over less. It might not be as star studded, but this backcourt is better than a year ago. I say that as a big Kailon Lucas fan, too. Wood, the transfer from Valpo is such a smart player and never takes a bad shot. Appling is taking a major leap his sophomore year, showcasing why he had such hot recruiting bonafides coming out of Detroit’s Pershing High. With eight players netting at least 18 minutes a game, the Spartans are a deepish team and Izzo, unlike a year ago, has a lot of different options in his coaching bag if Plan A isnt working. Its all added up to being back in the Big 10 Championship mix.

In the other corner are the Michigan Wolverines. Rather than saying what a difference a year makes, like we did for MSU, it is more accurate to just say, holy hell what a year-long stretch its been for Michigan. It’s just shy of a year to the day that the Wolverines sprung an unlikely upset of MSU at the Breslin Center. At the time, it looked like a nice, rather unsustainable win, a bright spot in an otherwise down year. Michigan was 1-6 in league play and on a 6-game losing streak entering that game. The win was more than just a bright spot, however. It propelled Michigan on a run the second half of the Big 10 season, which included a second win over MSU and an eventual NCAA tournament bid where they rolled Tennesssee in round one and a near upset of Duke in round two. Despite losing Darius Morris to the NBA, the program seemingly has maintained that momentum. They’ve been in the top-20 all season long and with their 14-3 record this season, the Wolverines are an amazing 24-8 since that win at the Breslin Center last January.

Maybe that win wasnt sustainable, but it sure as heck turned this program around. With Tim Hardaway Jr and Trey Burke, they have a really good Big 10 backcourt, whose ceiling is somewhere in the great territory. Zack Novak is, well, Zach Novak, one of the few Big 10 players who can dominate a game without denting much in the boxscore. He needs to make at least 5 plays tonight that wont show up in the boxscore for Michigan to pull out the win.  The Wolverines are 20th in the nation in EFG% and its the best shooting bunch during Beilein’s tenure at Michigan. Michigan is 6th nationally in 2-point field goals. They dont turn the ball over and despite their lack of size are really strong on the defensive glass. Novak and Stu Douglass are the only senior contributers and with a top-10 recruiting class hitting campus next year, highlighted by the #1 recruit in the land Mitch McGary, Michigan is finally becoming a basketball school again and they are hell bent on extending their winning streak over Michigan State to three games.

So, what happens? Michigan needs to shoot the ball better than they have recently if they want to win. It might be Beilein’s best shooting team at Michigan, but they are lodged in a major shooting slump right now.  They’re only shooting 36.7% in their last 3 games and their 3-point shooting has been woeful pretty much the whole Big 10 season so far making just 29.6% of their treys during the first third of the conference season.  The main culprit has been Hardaway Jr. He’s had some stinker games shooting the ball recently, barely shooting above a 30% clip the last 5 games. The other issue they’ve had in recent games has been strategic foul trouble. Burke and Novak have been glued to the bench in recent games thanks to first half whistles going against them. As for MSU, there really havent been too many chinks in the armor until Northwestern snapped their 15-game winning streak over the weekend. They looked vulnerable on D for the first time all season and the Cats diced them up with back door-type cuts all day long. 

 A year after being notorious money burners, State is 10-5 against the spread this season. But, Michigan is 30-14 ATS since the beginning of last season and are a respectable 8-6 ATS this season. But, they’ve failed against the number in their last two starts. Beilein’s team rarely drops three games in a row ATS, they’re 36-17 ATS vs winning teams and on a 15-6 ATS run at home. Everything about MSU is so much better this year than a year ago, while Michigan, despite being in a better position thisear, hasnt really reached their potential this year. On a nuetral floor and certainly up in Breslin, I think this would be a pretty easy Spartan win. In Ann Arbor,  I think Michigan sneaks out a tightly contested win this evening. In Crisler Arena, I think home cooking keeps Michigan out of the foul trouble they’ve had recently and Hardaway Jr rediscovers, at least for a night, the HAM that made him one of the Big 10′s most explosive scorers. He makes a series of clutch buckets in the second half and Burke salts the game away at the line in a 66-62 Michigan win.

The Pick: Michigan +2

• Big 10 Hoops: Michigan State at Michigan (January 17, 2012)
• Indiana Is Back, Nebraska Fans Storm Court (January 19, 2012)

Come on, Big Ten! Make me stop posting Hoosier pictures! Next time it's a Crean-face.

At the start of the year, we pegged the Wisconsin Badgers and Purdue Boilermakers – two teams that had spent most of the past four years at the top of the conference, as second and third in the conference, respectively. It was clear they lost production – Purdue lost conference player-of-the-year JaJuan Johnson and running-mate E’Twaun Moore while Wisconsin lost senior star Jon Leuer in addition to sharp-shooter Keaton Nankivil. There was some reason for optimism – Purdue returned all-conference caliber Robbie Hummel, who had missed all of the previous year, while Wisconsin seemed to have some highly-rated players to fill Leuer’s shoes, and a daunting home-floor advantage to paper over some weaknesses.

But things don’t always work out – Wisconsin has lost three consecutive games, two at home, and one of those to…Iowa? Purdue, for their part, got blown out in hyperbole-inspiring fashion by Penn State after seemingly righting the ship at home against Illinois. What, if anything, did we get wrong about these teams? Are these aberrations, or these bad teams?

Wisconsin, for years, has been an elite offense hiding behind a snail’s pace. In five of the past six years, they’ve been, adjusted for tempo, one of the 25 best offensive teams in the nation, peaking out at 2nd last year. During this span, their shooting has ranged from “pretty good” to “mediocre”, but what’s always kept them intact has been ball-security – with four appearances in the top 10 in the category. The key, simply, is their shooting. On the year, they don’t appear to have taken a huge step backwards – their eFG% has only dropped one percent. However, in Big Ten play, the Badgers are shooting eight percent under that mark (43% eFG), and in their three losses, that number falls to 39.9% – twelve points under last year. The problem certainly exists at the top, where Jordan Taylor is shooting five points worse than last year, and failing to get to the line at nearly the same clip, but with five additional shot attempts a game, it seems like he’s trying to prop up a failing offense. Jarred Berggren has significantly increased his shot attempts in the past three games, but is only shooting 30.6% from the floor, making 1/12 three pointers. Ben Brust, a surprise at the start of the year, is shooting 31.8% (20% from three). Defensive star Ryan Evans is the next most frequent shooter, making 29.6%, and role players John Gasser and Mike Brusewitz have combined to shoot 38%. Simply, they have been the worst shooting team in college basketball over their streak.

Against Penn State, Purdue shot similarly to Wisconsin, but on a higher level, their shooting hasn’t been that poor – excepting that, they’ve rarely shot lower than the low-40′s. Purdue, oddly, is slipping significantly on the defensive side of the ball. Other than his first year in West Lafayette, Painter’s clubs have been top-ten in defensive efficiency every year, finishing 9th last year. This year, while solid, they’ve ballooned to 34th, and it’s largely come on the back of a lack of defensive rebounding as a result of losing JaJuan Johnson.

The other major factor is simple – Robbie Hummel isn’t the all-conference player he was. Hummel’s rebounding has stayed constant to the levels it was at when he shared the front-court with Johnson (with Johnson’s departure, you’d think his rate would improve), and his shooting is a dismal 36% against major-conference clubs. If Hummel can find his stroke again, the Boilermakers can look to improve.

Despite the fact that Purdue’s problems are more systematic than Wisconsin’s terrifying cold-streak, we think Purdue has the best opportunity to recover – Hummel is a good shooter, and proved it over three years. If he can find his stroke again, he’ll join an offense that is functioning fairly well despite him. The Purdue defensive problems are likely here to stay this year, but this is still a tourney team. Wisconsin, for their part, we’re less positive about. It’s nearly impossible that they can continue to shoot at this clip, but a close watching of their games reveals a team that just simply can’t create good looks at the hoop, and may not have anyone to make them, even if they saw them. If they can right the ship soon, and return to simply shooting “badly” and not “abhorrently”, this team has “NCAA 10 seed” written across them in bold letters.

The rankings:

1. Ohio State (15-2, 3-1)

The Buckeyes dispatched two teams from the dregs of the conference (Nebraska and Iowa) on their own floor by a total of 60 points. A road trip to Champagne and a chance of revenge on their own floor against Indiana raise the stakes this week.

2. Michigan State (14-2, 3-0)

The Spartans’ only action this week was a controversial win over Wisconsin in Madison, breaking their curse. Keith Appling (18 ppg in Big Ten play) has taken a giant step forward in the past three games.

3. Indiana (15-1, 3-1)

Indiana dispatched another ranked team at home, squeaking by the Wolverines by two points, before getting tested on the road against Penn State. The Hoosiers shot 58%, and only won by 6 - they’ll need their defense in Columbus.

4. Michigan (13-3, 3-1)

Michigan managed their first win in six years over Wisconsin, winning by nearly 20 despite shooting 38%, which atoned for a close loss in Bloomington. Jordan Morgan’s work on the offensive glass (13 offensive rebounds in his last 3 games) has helped the Wolverines get by despite some declining shooting performances.

5. Purdue (13-4, 3-1)

After their loss to Penn State, Purdue recovered by handily winning at Minnesota. Keep an eye on Ryne Smith – when he makes his shots, this team wins.

6. Illinois (14-3, 3-1)

Illinois skated by both Northwestern on the road (basically a home game), and Nebraska at home. They keep winning, but this winning streak is on Bambi-legs right now. Hosting Ohio State will give them the opportunity to prove themselves. We aren’t optimistic, even if Joseph Bertrand’s entrance into the lineup (14 ppg on 68% shooting) has given their offense a badly needed shot in the arm.

7. Wisconsin (12-5, 1-3)

Wisconsin games have truly been a treat to watch recently – while shooting 37% from the floor in Big Ten play, they have also supplied the #2 shooting defense in the nation for the year, and held the competition to 39% over the same stretch. How fans in Madison still have eyeballs, we aren’t sure.

8. Northwestern (11-4, 1-2)

Their only action was a two point loss to Illinois on their home floor. With trips to Michigan and Wisconsin sandwiching a game against Michigan State, things are about to get ugly. It’s too bad, because Bill Carmody needs a friend these days.

9. Iowa (10-7, 2-2)

Iowa! In the single digits! Iowa won consecutive conference games for the first time since 2007, which was the last time they once more than a single road game in-conference as well. Iowa hadn’t won consecutive road games since 2005. Think about THAT, Badgers and Gophers.

10. Penn State (9-8, 1-3)

Billy Oliver has shot 10/16 from three-point land in the last two games, and Tim Frazier has handed out 16 assists. Oliver can do nothing but shoot, and Frazier nothing but pass, but there you go.

11. Nebraska (8-7, 0-4)

Nebraska gets the nod by virtue of playing four conference opponents with a combined record of 52-10 while Minnesota lost a home game to Iowa.

12. Minnesota (12-5, 0-4)

I wonder who will take Tubby’s job.

• Big 10 Hoops: Michigan State at Michigan (January 17, 2012)
• Indiana Is Back, Nebraska Fans Storm Court (January 19, 2012)

Keith Appling had a huge game in the Spartans' victory over the Hoosiers

Under Bo Ryan, Wisconsin was 160-12 on the home floor at the Kohl Center. Ten of those twelve losses were to ranked opponents. Wisconsin was 12-2, with both losses coming against top 10 squads, including two dominating wins over UNLV and BYU – mortal locks for the NCAA tournament.

Iowa was 8-6, with losses to virtually every team of consequence they played, including a 16-point loss to Campbell on their home floor. In the last five years, Iowa sports a total of 2 victories over ranked opponents. You need to go back to 2005 to find their last road win over a top-ranked opponent, and back to 1993 to find the last time they beat Wisconsin (that was in Iowa City). If you wanted to find their last win in Madison, you’d need to be a far more diligent internet researcher than I.

But, weird things happen. Wisconsin put up an abysmal shooting night (34.8%), one that was likely self-inflicted, as Iowa, even after this performance, ranks 228th in the nation in eFG% defense. Jarred Berggren shot a disastrous 6-17 from the floor, and Berggren, Jordan Taylor, and Ben Brust shot a combined 3-21 from beyond the arc.  To top it off, defensive stalwart Reggie Evans fouled out in 15 minutes of play (thanks, Ted Valentine!), exposing an extremely shallow bench (five players played 87% of the minutes).

For their part, Iowa scorched the nets – freshman Austin White needed only seven shots to score 17 points, as the Hawkeyes shot 50% from the floor. When they were even missing shots, they grabbed over 35% of their missed shots, behind Melsahn Basabe’s 5 offensive rebounds. It all combined for a stunning upset.

Things were also quite tumultuous at the top of the standings. Indiana was buzz-sawed at the Breslin center in early in the week, watching a 7-point lead over the Spartan evaporate into a 15-point defeat in the blink of an eye. The Spartans were driven by a break-out game from Keith Appling, who took 12 shots to score 25 point, while dishing out 12 assists to two turnovers. The ball security was key, as the Spartans defied the Hoosier turnover machine, save for a brief flurry from Victor Olapido towards the end of the first half. The Spartans completely stifled the Hoosier offense – at one point during the run, more than two minutes passed before the Hoosiers had a single shot draw iron, as they flailed at the hoops late in the shot-clock. It was a complete obliteration – one that had this observer questioning Indiana’s place in the conference.

Which means, of course, that the Hoosiers would promptly go out and defeat another top-2 opponent. The Hoosiers didn’t shoot that much better in their victory over the Buckeyes, but they did manage a few things characteristic of their play early in the season: first, they limited the Buckeye’s cracks at the rim by forcing 17 turnovers – seven more than they did against the Spartans. Second, they avoided allowing a second 60%+ eFG% performance, though the Buckeyes did shoot fairly well. Third, and most importantly, they got to the line, behind Verdell Jones, Christian Watford, and Cody Zeller – getting 12 more points from the stripe than against the Spartans. This impacted more than just their offense – Jared Sullinger, DeShaun Thomas, and William Buford all spent large swaths of the game in foul trouble, and the result was somewhat off-kilter performances from Thomas and Buford, their second and third leading scorers. As Kansas established in their victory over a Sullinger-less Ohio State team, this is a club with a vanishingly thin front-court. Ravenal can’t stand up to quality post players (four fouls in 19 minutes), and nobody else on the roster is ready – Sam Thompson and Amir Williams are both 6’9″ and under 200 pounds.

Lets get on to the rankings. As a word of caution – these are intended to be predictive, not a straight-resume evaluation of performance, hence, why Ohio State is ranked over Indiana.

1. Ohio State (13-2, 1-1). The Buckeyes cling to the top-spot in this week’s ranking, but come chinks in the armor are visible – teams that can pound the ball inside and draw fouls can get them into dangerous spots, as Sullinger is the only quality option they have in the post. It’s unlikely that Buford and Thomas can combine to be as inconsequential as they were on Saturday, but a team like Michigan State should present a challenge.

2. Indiana (13-1, 1-1). The Hoosiers lost on the road against a scorchingly hot shooting night from the Spartans – it’s hard to believe that any team would have won that night. Of more concern is the way the offense left them in the second half. It’s been written here numerous times, but Victor Olapido is the bell-weather on the team – when he creates turnovers and runs the floor, as he did against Ohio State, they can beat anyone, even when they don’t shoot that well, as they haven’t the past two games. Getting Will Sheehey back will be a large boost as well.

3. Michigan State (13-2, 2-0). The Spartans big win came behind extremely hot shooting and uncharacteristically good ball security, neither of which seem likely to be sustained, as a turnover-plagued win over an incompetent Nebraska club, established. If they can continue to defend like they did against the Hoosiers, however, this is an extremely dangerous team. Appling’s breakout has the Spartans singing the praises of…Austin Thornton.

4. Wisconsin (12-3, 1-1). Taylor is still shooting badly, and Ben Brust’s hot start seems to be cooling off. Right now, there are significant and real questions about where the offense is going to come from this team, as they’re capable of shooting horrendously on their own court against an awful defense.

5. Michigan (12-2, 2-0). Two home wins over what we see as the dregs of the conference get you a big “MEH”, here. This week, they have to travel to Indiana and host Wisconsin – that should give us a bit more information on the Wolverines. One thing is for sure – Jordan Morgan needs to hang onto the ball, as he’s nearly solely responsible for the Wolverine’s steep downturn in ball-security year-over-year.

6. Purdue (12-3, 2-0). The Boilermakers eeked out a road win against Iowa, and then easily handled a mis-firing Illini team at home. Hummel is getting most of the publicity at this point, but he’s been an iffy shooter. Ryne Smith and Lewis Jackson have been their best players to date.

7. Illinois (12-3, 1-1). In our opinion, this is where the NCAA tournament stops. Illinois just struggles too much on offense to be a consistent threat to the upper-echelon of the conference. Myers Leonard put together a sparkling game against Minnesota, then vanished against Purdue. Brandon Paul seems to be stepping up his game a bit, which is badly needed.

8. Northwestern (11-3, 1-1). It’s become abundantly clear that the Wildcats oft-repeated mantra of “this year is the year we make the tournament” will never come to pass if they can’t learn to play any defense. Giving up 174 combined points to Creighton and Ohio State in consecutive games is an indication they haven’t figured it out.

9. Minnesota (12-3, 0-2). It’s never seemly to say “I told you so”, but yeah, the bloom has come off this rose. The Gophers are an interior-oriented team that lives off the glass that has gotten out-scored in the paint, and out-rebounded. Even the gift of an abysmal shooting night from the Wolverines (the one thing the Wolverines actually do well) wasn’t enough to get the Gophers a win.

10. Iowa (9-6, 1-1). I suspect this won’t last long, but the Hawkeyes put a scare into a decent Purdue team before knocking off the Badgers – it was a good week. What’s best is that they rediscovered Melsahn Basabe in the past eight games, as he’s averaging 14/8 on 57% shooting in that stretch. Best not to get carried away.

11. Nebraska (8-5, 0-2). Maybe we were wrong about these guys. The Big 12 must not be very good. Michigan State played badly, and beat them in a walk.

12. Penn State (8-7, 0-2). A shockingly bad basketball team. The entire team is predicated upon Tim Frazier, who isn’t even very good, taking every shot, making every pass, and grabbing every rebound. As a game-managing PG, he’s a valuable piece, but Talor Battle, he isn’t.

Northwestern +10 over Texas A/M x2……..Here’s what we know about Northwestern. Dan Persa is a holy lock to complete 3/4s of his passes. He re-established himself as a legit passer in the Big 10 after his Achilles injury. But he cant run worth a lick anymore a year after avereaging 51 yards per game on the ground with nine rushing scores. Jeremy Ebert is a really good threat at flanker whose aprt to gobble up a bunch of catches or explode for a load of yards, but rarely both. For the umpteenth year in a row, they have zero tailback theat. But their offense continues to hum along, specializing in drives with a lot of snaps and regularily picking their way down the field and into scoring range. They settle for field goals way too much and would probably win a couple games more a year if they would just adopt a hard line, four down territory strategy once they crossed midfield. Their defense pushes the boundary of bend, but dont break limits. They give up a ton of fourth quarter points. When one of your fantasy players goes up against them, you’re smiling as they given up 14 combined 100 yard rushing or receiving games with 18 scores between those players. This defense, ranked 90th nationally in rushing yards allowed, held Fitzgerald Toussaint of Michigan to 25 yards on 15 carries, good enough to be nominated one of the Big 10′s biggest box score mysteries of the season.

But, hey, otherwise everything was great with the Purple this year. I think its safe to say this uneven season was a bit of a disappointment for Northwestern, but they still earned their fourth bowl game in a row, extending a record streak for the program. And despite those flaws, we’re still in line this morning with them and the +10 for this nooner.  Here’s why.

Would you want to lay ten points with the Aggies 112th ranked pass defense? Persa and the Cats wont stop coming at the Aggies with the pass, regardless of score. They ought to be able to play their A game that makes them a tough out in the Big 10 against this defense. And given that Texas AM loves to blow second half leads, its the perfect offense/defense matchup to keep a back door cover alive in the even the Aggies do push them game beyond the number for a spell. They gave up almost 200 2nd half points, infamously blowing so many late leads that all of the choke jobs tied for third place together on Doc Saturday’s list of comebacks of the year. This team is not the model heavy chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win.. There will be loads of offense in this one, but I trust the Wildcat coaching brass over the sideline in transition Aggies. The Wildcats might still be looking for the first bowl win in program history, but they’ve already become clutch postseason moneymakers. They’ve covered three years in a row, in similar spots, double digit dogs against a Big 12 or SEC team. Each team they pushed the game to the limit. With the added prep dont be surprised to see a Kain Coulter package give the O an extra spark with a new wrinkle or two to get Drake Dunsmore the ball, wide open with a lots of room to run. Besides, even if this game does spin out of control for Northwestern, I feel there’s still an excellent chance a late, worthless Persa to Ebert score will get us the cover.

Vandy -1 over Cincy x 1………Its an 8/9 game in the NCAA First Round disguised as a bowl game. Whatever it really is, it gives us a chance to quickly highlight one of the year’s greatest blunders in college football. Maryland’s surprise dismissal of Ralph Freidgen and even more curious and non-inspiring selection of Randy Edsall to replace him. Edsall rewrote the record books in ways to throw your new players under the bus. It was a miserable season in College Park, one that moved into debacle by October and surpassed record tire fire levels during the second half of their epic collapse against NC State last month. Meanwhile, James Franklin, who had been the head coach in waiting when the Freidgen regime was blown up, moved over to Nashville to take perennial SEC Vanderbilt. All he did was lead Vanderbilt to just their third bowl game in the last 30 years and currently has a top-25 recruiting class percolation. Given the mediocre current state of some of the usual SEC suspects, Franklin has the Dores in position to be factors in the division race. I can hear Friedgen’s jolly last laugh all the way over here. As far as this game, the Bearcats get QB Zach Collaras back in this showcase of good Big East offense vs good SEC defense. I’ll take the SEC D, please.

Illinois Moneyline -160 over UCLA x 1…….Its the Rose Bowl In Hell. So, of course, I am required to suffer through the affair with a play on the Big 10 side. In coin flip type games in recent days we grabbed a small amount of points and went against dominant defensive outfits of Texas, Rutgers and Florida State. We didnt win any of those bets. Call this the If You Cant Beat Then, Join Them Pick Of The Day. The group of this game is the Illini defense, armed with star power, proven with numbers. Marcellus Whitney will kill at least one UCLA QB today, but will more certainly create the game changing turnover for Illinois en route to an ugly win by more than a field goal.

Utah +3  (-125) over Ga Tech, x 1…….I cant help but wonder if the bloom isnt off of Paul Johnson right now. And, I hate using cliches like that. It sounds like the segment of a First Take-type of debate. Blech. And I’m not pushing the thought that teams have figured out his option either. He still has Tech as a top-4 ACC team and in the divisional race hunts. I am strictly speaking from the against the spread results side of the ledger. For the second year in the row, Tech had a losing ATS marks. Thats signicant. At Navy and early on at Tech, Johnson’s squads had seven winning ATS seasons out of eight. There werent many more cluth or more reliable plays during that stretch. But the last two seasons have been underwater for Johnson backers. After strong starts, the Jackets struggled against the number during the meat of the season. They suddenly cant cover a spread in ACC play. And havent provided a winning ticket in any game against the closing line since September 24th. They may have been strong ACC division contenders deep into November, but by then they had become to toxic to bet on. My analysis? They are just average on defense, in many ways still replacing some of the star power that departed after winning the 2009 ACC Title. Johnson has yet to be able to play with his ideal QB and this year’s candidates were a major step below from Josh Nesbitt had been GT’s QB for the first three years of PJ’s time. I dont care how great your option is, 112th in the nation in passing is going to get you in trouble in the big leagues and teams that arent ablt to generate chunks of yards, quick points and take over games in the air are going to be terrible chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win.. And thats another factor, for the first time during PJ’s coaching tenure, his teams are generally the chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. on a week to week basis. And, thats another reason for the ATS decline. He proved to a great underdog chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win.. He’s only so so as the favorite. And, we already know that his bowl success at Navy isnt carrying over to Atlanta. He’s 0-3 in bowls as the GT head man with his team scoring 3, 7, and 7 points in the process. Today they take on a Utah that had an uneven first season in the Pac-12, had to gut through an injury to their starting QB, but still had a chance to make the confernece championship but fell flat on their face in a loss to last place Colorado. The Utes have always been a strong underdog team, maintaned that role this year and are on a 25-12 ATS run as a dog against the closing line. And its always been a great bowl program, going 8-1  SUATS in their last nine, including 4-0 as a dog against a BCS school. They’ve beaten some brands in those games like USC, Alabama, and this very own Georgia Tech program. I think they have a good shot at doing it again.

That just leaves the Peach Bowl, now the Chick Fil-A Bowl. Auburn is short 3-point chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win.. We’re still waiting on the results of the coin flip that will determine which team we take here. We’ll tweet out the results later. But we’re getting close to first kick and there’s still a prop board and college basketball board to look into, so we wanted to get this post up now.