What To Watch

Three to Watch: Big 12 Edition

November 4, 2011
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Three to Watch is purposely avoiding the Tigers and Elephants in the room when it comes to the big game this week and so we venture to the SEC’s minor league system, the Big 12, to check out a few games of interest. So let’s start with the best game as Kansas travels to Iowa State. Wait, nope.

Kansas State @ Oklahoma State, 8:00 ABC- So this is the match-up ESPN/ABC is putting up against the LSU-Bama game. They’ve pretty much conceded ratings defeat though, with constant LSU-Bama recruiting videos features on the WWL all week. Still, this game has serious BCS implications as well. In fact, Oklahoma State is almost certain to jump into the top two with a win. While the Pokes might be feeling some pressure, KSU will have to deal with the post-traumatic symptoms lingering from last week’s 58-17 beatdown delivered by the Sooners.

Kansas State’s suspect defense couldn’t deal with Oklahoma’s talent last week and they don’t figure to be able to deal with OSU’s this Saturday. Justin Blackmon, Brandon Weeden, and Joseph Randle combine to lead the nation’s second best scoring offense. Weeden and Blackmon have hooked up for 10 scores on the season, while Randle has rushed for four touchdowns in each of his last two games and sixteen on the year. Those are crazy numbers. To keep up, KSU is going to try and keep those cats off the field by controlling the pace with their ground game. The Wildcats sport the 20th best run game in the country, averaging about 210 yards per game, while the Cowboys have the 84th best rush defense. Of course, teams don’t have a lot of time to run the ball when they are down three scores. Last week against the Sooners, the Wildcats didn’t abandon the run despite the deficit, running 43 times against 16 pass attempts. QB Collin Klein and RB John Hubert will likely see some more success against the Pokes than they did the Sooners, but I doubt they’ll be able to keep up.

Texas A&M @ Oklahoma, 3:30 ABC/ESPN2 mirror- The afternoon tilt will feature two of the top ten teams in the country in terms of total offense and two great QBs with OU’s Landry Jones and A&M’s Ryan Tannehill. What was supposed to be a banner season for Texas A&M has turned into an ominous one with three extremely close losses to Oklahoma State, Arkansas, and Missouri. A lot can be salvaged with a second straight win over Oklahoma, but the Sooners are holding out hope for a Big 12 championship and looking to rectify a home lost for the first time in about 40 games.

One factor of note for the Sooners will be the absence of running back Dominique Whaley, who is lost for the season after an injury early in last week’s game. Running backs Roy Finch, Brennan Clay, and Brandon Williams will likely share the load until one establishes himself as a clear starter. Meanwhile, Jones shouldn’t have much trouble passing against the Aggies 120th rated pass defense. Yes, that’s last in FBS. Oklahoma’s #2 rated pass offense approves. Ryan Broyles and Kenny Stills might want to stow some chairs in the end zones.   The Aggies have enough firepower to give a fair fight in a shootout. Tannehill will benefit as receiver Jeff Fuller continues to get healthy, while running back Cyrus Gray is looking to turn in his first dominant performance of the season.  I like Oklahoma to win this high scoring game.

Texas Tech at Texas, Noon FX- Every week when I see a game is on FX go through the same cycle. “Why is a game on FOX this week? Oh, FX. Wait, why does FX have a game on instead of an X-Men movie? OMG GUS JOHNSON! HA HAAAA!” Much like Missouri-Texas A&M in this time slot last week, we have a good Big 12 game to keep an eye on as we jump into another Saturday. Texas Tech followed up its monumental upset win at Oklahoma with a true bed-shitting against Iowa State in Lubbock that saw them lost by 34, while Texas took back-to-back losses against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and will try to get some momentum going into another tough stretch. Read more »

Red River Shootout at High Noon

October 7, 2011
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No Three to Watch this week, as Jamie has your 3:30 window primer with picks and will have some KNIGHT JAMEZ picks later on. Really just one good early game this week, so might as well focus on the Red River Rivalry Shootout. For the first time since 2008 and the second time in seven years, Texas and Oklahoma enter the game undefeated. Oklahoma has notched an impressive win at Florida State, while Texas has successfully completed the first stages of its revenge tour following a 5-7 record last season. 4-0 vs 4-0, Texas vs Oklahoma, fierce rivalry. Get up early buy your meats and cheeses and settle in for FOOTBAW!

Two-Headed Monstah

The Texas quarterback situation is interesting. Returning starter Garrett Gilbert returned this year and had some injury issues giving way to recent legacy QB Case McCoy. Returning starter isn’t that cool of a spot to be in if you’re returning from a team that went 5-7 in a program that doesn’t really do that kind of thing. So, Gilbert has lost that starting spot to McCoy and freshman David Ash, who share the QB duties in a way I haven’t totally figured out yet. McCoy started against Iowa State, but gave way to Ash who went for 145 yards and two scores. The same discussion applies to all of these two-quarterback systems, stating that it gives you the luxury of going with the hot hand, but realizing that “if you have two, you don’t have one.” They’re young kids and having two of them gives you a better chance of finding one that isn’t rattled by the big stage. The youngsters have been great this year, but this will be by far their biggest test. Pretty sure this monster is scarier to Texas than to Oklahoma.

Youguns Everywhere

Texas sports some youth at other key positions. Malcolm Brown has been solid this year at the running back position, averaging around 5 yards per carry. The freshman carries the load for the Longhorns. Kind of a theme. Jaxon Shipley (yep, brother again) and Mike Davis (no relation to that Indiana coach) are the top targets at wide receiver and in those two you have a freshman and sophomore, respectively. Crazy young. Shipley caught six passes for 141 yards and a score against Iowa State last week and has upped his production every Saturday through the early part of the season. It doesn’t stop with the offense either, as Texas rolls out youth on defense, especially in the back four. One to watch in particular is Quandre Diggs, a freshman that Texas fans love and a guy sure to have a lot of responsibilities on Saturday. Read more »

Three to Watch: Night Games Edition

September 30, 2011
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Three to Watch is going under the lights this week for a peek at some of the KNIGHT JAMEZ! We have a great weekend of college football coming up and Jamie has you covered (pun?) for some of the early contests. You’ll notice the big Wisconsin-Nebraska tilt as a conspicuous omission here, but I’ll be posting an in-depth preview for that one in short order. I really like that Washington at Utah game in the Pac-12 as well, but I’m not sure you can catch that one on national TV. Utah is favored by 8 and these teams can really score (I’m taking the Huskies to cover). Let’s get to a few other gems.

Clemson at Virginia Tech, 6:00, ESPN2

Is a 6 PM start really a night game? I suppose most of it will take place after dinner, so what the hell, it’s a great match-up. Much like the Wisconsin-Nebraska game, this could be a preview of the conference championship game, as Clemson has already dispatched Florida State and Va Tech looks like the front-runner in the Coastal Division. Clemson will lean on QB Tajh Boyd, who has led the ACC with 13 TDs and 1,255 yards passing. Boyd’s favorite target this year has been freshman wideout Sammy Watkins who has six scores and averages over 15 yards per catch. Make your pick on Watkins over/under 122.5 rushing/receiving yards in this week’s Pick-4. I’m going under.

Coming off of a huge win against Florida State, it won’t be easy to go into Blacksburg and grab a win. In fact, the last time Clemson was riding such a hot start and played at Virginia Tech they came out behind 24 to 7 in 2006. Play on the edges of the line and defensive backfield will be key for the Hokies. Slowing down a passing attack always starts with pressure on the passer and defensive ends James Gayle and J.R. Collins can provide that pressure. On the back end, Jayron Hosley will probably be primarily responsible for slowing down Watkins, and also the reason I’m sticking with the under on Pick-4. On the other side of the ball, it will all come down to the Hokies’ sophomore QB Logan Thomas. If Thomas can navigate his way through the game without big mistakes, the Hokies will score in the 20’s and have a chance to win. Like always. This won’t be a blowout though and I like Clemson to cover the one touchdown spread.

Texas at Iowa State, 7:00 FX Read more »

Three to Watch: Week Two

September 16, 2011
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Three to Watch is back for Week Three and hoping you didn’t forget to watch the big game last night just because we didn’t tell you to catch it. If you missed LSU’s win last night, don’t make the same mistake with Boise State at Toledo tonight at 8 et on ESPN. The Rockets almost beat Ohio State last week, so we’ll see how Boise State does at the Glass Bowl. Of course, there are great games involving Florida teams this week, but steering clear of the great State of Florida, let’s focus on three other great ones.

Washington at Nebraska, 3:30 et ABC/ESPN- Nebraska was less than impressive last week against Fresno State, but the Bulldogs like to play the big boys tough early in the season. Look for Taylor Martinez and the Huskers to fire back this week. Washington seems like an intimidating opponent after that weak performance, but the Huskies have squeaked out a couple of tight ones against less-than teams in Eastern Washington and Hawaii (sorry Seth). Sophomore QB Keith Price has been impressive this year though and can keep Washington in it if they fall behind.

Michigan State at Notre Dame, 3:30 et NBC- Will the Irish start off 0-3? If they keep turning it over at a five per game clip, yes. Michigan State has owned ND in recent years, but I’m going to cut against Jamie on this one and take the Irish. Kirk Cousins is a great QB for MSU and LeVeon Bell and Edwin Baker are bruising backs, but I think the ND line and Manti Te’o will hold them in check enough to give Tommy Rees and Michael Floyd a shot to win. Keep in mind, the Spartans under Dantonio have been brutally bad on the road, losing big to the likes of Iowa and Ohio State, while scoring victories over zero teams with superior talent.

Arizona State at Illinois, 7:00 et BTN- Big game here to see what Nathan Scheelhaase and  the Illini are made of. Many like the Zooksters as Big Ten darkhorses, but they’ll face a tough Arizona State team led by QB Brock Osweiler. Did you know he’s 6’8”?! Short and sweet here: tune in and watch the Illini take it and cover the two point spread.

Three to Watch in Week Two

September 9, 2011
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Three to Watch returns with three games that you won’t want to miss in Week Two of the CFB season. I know we missed Week One, but when you’ve been without football for so long you simply need to watch every game you can. A lot of cupcakes will be consumed by powerhouses this week, but there are plenty of good tilts for your viewing pleasure. Let’s get to three of the best.

Mississippi State at Auburn, 12:20 SEC Network/ESPN3- Just about everyone in the country was sadfaced by Auburn’s lightning quick comeback last week after it looked certain they would lose to Utah State to open the season. Karma’s heavy hand was about to connect a forceful backhand the Tigers so fully deserved, but then they marched down the field, recovered the most weakly contested onside kick in history, and marched down the field again for the game winner. Similar heroics will be tough to come by against a formidable Mississippi State team that demolished Memphis in their opener.

The Bulldogs present a huge problem for Auburn’s defense with quarterback Chris Relf and tailback Vick Ballard. After Utah State shredded the Tigers, don’t be surprised if they give up 40+ this week. The Bulldogs rolled up 645 total yards last week, while Auburn gave up 227 on the ground to Utah State. Dan Mullen’s team also plays great defense. Auburn will need more from running back Michael Dyer, who rushed for 57 yards last week. QB Barrett Trotter was efficient in his first start and will need a similar performance to extend Auburn’s winning streak to five over Mississippi State. I don’t think it happens, as the Bulldogs will go into Auburn and get a big win.

Alabama at Penn State, 3:30 ABC- In the first of a couple of “name brand” match-ups on the Saturday slate, Nick Saban will take his Alabama team into Happy Valley to face Joe Pa and Penn State. Michigan and Notre Dame get the visit from College Gameday and a prime-time TV slot, but the Bama/PSU tilt is certainly of more national importance. For the Crimson Tide, this is the one out of conference game that could derail a shot at a national championship bid. Penn State is looking to pull a rather large upset that could propel a young team to a dream season.

The first thing you have to cover with these two teams is the quarterback situation. Both are experimenting at the position and played two signal callers in Week One. For Alabama, it was sophomore AJ McCarron getting the start and redshirt freshman Philip Sims (not that Phil Simms) in pre-planned relief. McCarron will almost certainly start again and if he can limit mistakes and push the Tide out to a lead, he’ll likely finish the game. Both youngsters threw two interceptions last week, but McCarron threw for almost three times the yardage. Joe Pa gave sophomore Rob Bolden the start and junior Matt McGloin got his share of the action as well. Bolden was 6 for 12 for 37 yards and McGloin was 6 for 8 for 77. Both will play again, but PSU might favor the more mobile Bolden in the face of a scary Bama defense.

So both teams have some QB issues, but Alabama has to be a heavy favorite here because they can get sub-par play from the quarterback position and still win by a few touchdowns. The Tide feature one of the top defenses in the country. Not many teams feature this kind of defensive star power, with guys like LB Dont’a Hightower, S Mark Barron, and CB Dre Kilpatrick to go along with a defensive line that gets to the QB with ease. Offensively, Bama has a wealth of talent, but watch for RB Trent Richardson and WR Marquis Maze. In my humble opinion, Richardson has been Alabama’s best back since he’s been on campus, even when Mark Ingram was around. He also has a leading role in Pick-4 this week with the over/under set at 112.5 rushing yards. I’m going under on this one because I think Penn State sells out to stop the run and Bama has other capable backs to share the load. Go play Pick-4! Read more »