Week Two

Week Two: Quick Sneak Peak

September 7, 2011
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Computer issues at the worst time conspired to keep posting down the last 24 hours or so. Nice timing now that the season has actually begun. How about a quick and far-from-comprehensive sneak peak at Week 2 of the college football season.

Are Those Lines Right?

Missouri +8 at Arizona State

Why is an Arizona State team thats just 11-22 straight up the last 3 years against FBS schools favored by more than a touchdown against a Missouri program that’s been bowling six straight seasons and won at least 10 games in three of the last four campaigns? The current line as I post this is ASU -8. I know the Tigers labored to get by Miami Ohio a week ago, but so too did Florida a year ago. Maybe the Redhawks are just scrappy. My gut tells me the Devils arent ready to cover chalky spreads like this against legit teams. Of course, my gut also tells me maybe Vontaze Burfect kills new Tigers QB James Frankling whose only making his second career start. It is an intimidating defense to face for the sophomore’s  first career road start, so maybe that explains the line. I could see ASU winning, but this line gives them too much respect and not enough to the underrated Big 12 program.

Mississippi St -6.5 at Auburn

Sometimes things change fast in the sports world. As an example, take this week’s Auburn-Mississippi State matchup on the Plains. Auburn, the defending SEC and National Champs, are  near touchdown home underdogs against the Mississippi Bulldogs. They havent had a winning SEC season since the 1999s and its the most chalk they’ve been laying in an SEC game against anyone not named Vanderbilt in almost a decade. The Bulldogs have been double digit underdogs to Auburn in seven of the last eight matchups. But, a lot of folks expected an Auburn slide this year. Needing a miracle to beat Utah State has the Auburn Will Crater Bandwagon even more full. And, that one time in recent years that MSU wasnt a heavy underdog was only a year ago when the Bulldogs were only +1 a year ago at home in this matchup. They almost beat War Eagle then, dropping a 17-14 slugfest. So maybe its not that outlandish of a line in that retrospect. It’s just odd seeing a program thats been down for so long being significant road chalk against the defending national champions. Somebody is overreacting to something. We’ll see. I do know that I intended on taking the Bulldogs on a short number. But a full TD of chalk on the road might too big of a price tag for me.

Purdue -1 at Rice

Look, I know Purdue looked terrible a week ago. They’re already playing their backup quarterback. And they tear ACLs as part of daily routine in West Lafayette. But, shouldnt this club–on Phil Steele’s Most Improved Team list, by the way–be favored by a bigger number. Shouldnt any team from the Big Bad Big 10 be favored by more against a CUSA team thats only had a handful of winning seasons the last quarter century. I know its on the road and the Owls have Sam McGuffie, but the Boilers ought to be able to win this game and cover this number, right? Read more »

Week Two Review/Week Three Lookaheads

September 14, 2010
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We’re two weeks in the books. The JCB is above .500 for the season, however we’re really not doing much more than running in place. A 3-2 weekend, that included no Saturday night picks since this blogger was way too busy having a half dozen or so heart attacks during the fourth quarter of the Michigan-Notre Dame game. I didnt even notice the time and missed most of the primetime starts as a result.  And, then once Denard Xavier Robinson provided the soothing medicine, I didnt really care. I will have more on Denard and Michigan in an MGoDiary coming near you soon. But know this: For the second straight week, I ended the game shaking my head because I hadnt seen anything quite like it at Michigan before. And, I’ve been living and dying with this program since 1978.

So, the Michigan pick was brilliant. I said all summer long to take the points and once again the underdog cashes in this classic rivlary. It was actually the sixth time in the last seven years where the underdog won the game straight up. We also looked great riding the Cam Newton Train with Auburn over Mississippi State and the Marcus Lattimore Bus with South Carolina edging by UGA. As for Miami over OSU and USF over Florida……well, lets not talk about those picks.

Before moving on to the quick sneak peak at this weekend’s action, I wanted to throw a couple shotouts to JCB readers who were dead on the mark all weekend. Logan nailed a 4-team teaser with KU +22, Hawai +8, FAU +33.5 and Wake Pick ‘Em. That was a nice score. Cgalopin dropped four picks in our comment section–Auburn -1, Alabama -11.5, Oklahoma -7 and Iowa -13.5–and swept his card.  Our own SteveY went 2-1, with wins on FAU and Hawaii, but like myself, took a little bit of a bath on USF. But, still, what a solid, profitable week from some of our regulars. Love it!! Keep up the good work and thanks for sharing your picks!

It’s an underrated, yet important week for the Big 10. Last week had ranked showdowns and historic rivalry games on the docket, and while this week does not look as sexy, we still have barometer games for three league contenders as they finally play legit competition from the BCS level. I’ll more on these games as we get closer to the weekend, perhaps an Over/Under post or two, but for now let’s take a quick peak at the games.

Arizona State +14 at Wisconsin…..After sparring with Mountain West and Conference USA second division teams, the Badgers welcome in a team from the Pac 10. The Sun Devils arent expected to do much in the Pac 10 race and if they cobble enough wins to return to a bowl after missing out a year ago, they will have had a nice season. While they’re not expected to give the Badgers much of a push, it’s still a worthy watch to see the highly talented Wisconsin offense go up against some real competition after the first two weeks. Besides, Sun Devil QB Stevev Threet is 1-0 lifetime as a starter against the Badgers. Maybe he has their number? Read more »

A FOOTBAW Orgy at 3:30 (With Pick$$$)

September 11, 2010
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Well, the nooners have started. Did you follow the JCB’s lead and take South Carolina and USF? What’s next? How about  an orgy of football during the 3:30 window. National showdowns, National Championship game rematches, historic rivalries and even a conference grudge match. I dont even have enough TVs to track all the action, even if I include watching a game on the laptop. Here’s a quick rundown of the major contests going on, with some picks at the bottom.

Michigan +4 at Notre Dame……Obviously for me, its the biggest game of the day. I best not go down memory lane because I could spit out 4,000 words without even trying when talking Michigan-Notre Dame. I’ll say this, however. If Rodriguez can survive the season and remain at the helm in Ann Arbor, and with Kelly running the show in South Bend, it’s only a matter of time before we see this rivalry get close to heights we saw it from 1978-1994. Today, we have a great matchup of innovative coaching minds. We’ll find out which head man has the more farther along team. The luster may be off this game from a national standpoint, but annually these teams play one of the better games of the season. If you’re a college football fan, I dont know how you dont watch.

Miami +8 at Ohio State…..First an apology: I was going to do a Over/Under post on this game, but real life got in the way. Pryor vs Harris may be the best QB duel of the day. The Bucks look lathered up for a national championship run. Their beatdown of Marshall a week ago sure looks more impressive after the Herd outplayed West Virginia last night. I actually feel Harris can outplay Pryor in this one. Until Pryor stepped up in the Rose Bowl, I would have take Jacory over him without thinking twice. This will be the best game of the day, in my E-pinion.

Florida State +7 at Oklahoma……The last time these teams met was the championship game after the 2000 season. That season, I rode Oklahoma to some nice profits. That was a defensive slugfest. I dont trust either defense in this one. I smell shootout. Is Christian Ponder the real deal and the QB the Noles have been lacking since Weinke trudged off the field for good after the Sooners beat them almost 10 years ago for the title? Its the brother Stoops going head to head. Not to mention Florida State’s first big game without Bobby Bowden. I am  very interested in seeing how Jimbo Fisher handles the spotlight in Norman today. Oklahoma hasnt lost at home in almost 5 years when TCU beat them to start the 2005 campaign.

Iowa State +13.5 at Iowa State……..the one-side Cy Hawk series. The Hawks might own the straight up series advantage, but its the Clones that have cashing winning tickets with a 9-2 ATS record in the last 11 matchups. Funny things have happened in each of the last meetings in Iowa City between these two teams. In 2006, the Hawks had a touchdown in the final 15 seconds wiped out by penalty and by taking that score off the board allowed the ‘Clones to cover the spread. In 2008, the Hawks had the game covered until Iowa Coach Kirk Ferentc took an intentional safety for no apparent reason, again giving ISU the money against the spread. You are warned.

Colorado +10 at Cal……..A future Pac 10 game. As a Michigan fan, I know I am supposed to hate Colorado, but I just cant. To me, college football needs a winning team in Boulder. I really thought Dan Hawkins could do good things at Colorado and he needs a big season or else he’s a lame duck coach.  As for Cal, they’ll probably roll through this game and their early slate. Every year, they con us into believing they are a Pac 10 contender. But, every year the reality of fall eventuall sits in and the Golden Bears go on a tailspin. They are very much like the Pac 10′s version of Michigan State. Once things start going bad, they cant stop the skidding. Read more »

Nooner$? Nooner$! Getting Showdown Saturday Started

September 11, 2010
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The first big Saturday of the college football season is upon us. Most of the killer, juicy matchups are backloaded into the second two-thirds of the day. The nooner slate doesnt wow you the way the 3:30 or primetime windows, but that doesnt mean there isnt anything to watch.

One of the most interesting games of the day takes place in Columbia where the SEC season begins for hopeful Eastern Division contenders Georgia and South Carolina. Is it already time for South Carolina’s regularily scheduled reality check?  Maybe not so much.  Hope runs high in Columbia these days. Stephen Garcia looks competent to good at QB. Alshon Jefferson and Marcus Lattimore give them some intriguing, explosive weapons on offense. That’s a trio, along with 4 starters back on the offensive line, that Steve Spurrier should be able to win with. They’ve had four losing SEC seasons in a row, typically beginning 0-1 after a early season to the Dawgs. After clocking Georgia as head coach of Florida, Spurrier is just 1-4 against Georgia in his South Carolina tenure.  This year there’s a strong sense the Gamecocks have a chance to make the Georgia rivalry meaningful.

After warming up with Sun Belt tomato can UL-Lafayette, the real season begins for the Dawgs in today. I really dont know what to expect out of them this year. They are not even on my Blog Poll ballot, even though my voting brethern have them 17th. The funny thing is, I never even considered Georgia. Going through the teams to fill out the preseason ballot, my eyes and mind never crossed the Bulldogs. Huge oversight? Maybe. But when I slapped my 25 teams on the wall, there wasnt anyone on that list that was an obvious reach that should be subbed in for a college football somebody like Georgia. They didnt really do anything in Week One to justify a swap. Beating the Gamecocks on the road today would qualify and ensure a spot on my next ballot. I’m sure Mark Richt will use that to imspire his troops.

NCAA Investigations have cast a cloud over the game, as Georgia’s AJ Green and South Carolina’s Jariel King wont be playing more casualities of the confusing Agentgate scandals of 2010. Who does that hurt more? I’ll go with Georgia. They could really use the playmaking of Green to bail out their redshirt freshmen QB making his first ever road start in the SEC. The Dawgs opened with Samford, so really its the kid’s first go against legit competition. Green would have been a tremendous safety blanket, no question. Mark Richt bizarrely is on the hot seat despite leading the program to a pair of SEC Titles and the question is starting to be asked aloud if player controversies will lead to his undoing. To make matters worse, is there any truth to the rumors that Georgia might be disbanding their athletic programs? That might be extreme, but folks in Athen are certainly burning goats to rid their athletic department of the bad mojo that keeps plaguing the news. On the Gamecock side, King is a big chip to lose on the offensive line, for sure, but the Cocks have a mroe experienced offense and while Georgia is a step up in competition for South Carolina, they rolled on offense a week ago with the perennially tough out Southern Miss program. Besides, there are some rumors swirling that King may be cleared to play, making this whole paragraph a waster of all our time. I’m sure more news will come out throughout the morning leading up to kickoff on this situation. South Carolina already has received some confirmed good news on the Agentgate front with cornerback Chris Tulliver, who sat out a week ago amid questions over who paid for an insurance policy, has been greenlighted to play by the NCAA bean counters.

Expect the defense for both teams to set the tempo early. Last year’s 41-37 win was a mirage as recent series history goes. The previous 10 meetings before that saw the total combined score avergae 28.1, with the highest scoring game being 38 points in UGA’s 31-7 win in 2004. In six of the games, neither team advanced past the teens on the scoreboard.

BIG 10 BLOWOUTS EXPECTED Read more »

Over/Under: Auburn at Mississippi State

September 9, 2010
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The SEC conference season opens tonight with an SEC West battle between Auburn and Mississippi State in Starkville.  Two seasons ago on this field, these teams set SEC football back a couple of generations with a 3-2 classic. Insert a cliche, Chris Berman-like Frank Thomas won it with a home run in the ninth joke here. Tonight will be a different story. Offensive fireworks are a team strength for both squads. The Vegas line for total points scored is Auburn O/U 29.5, Mississippi State O/U 27.5, and total points combined O/U 54. The public expects points tonight and multiple sources are calling for a game with both teams reaching the 30-point mark. Both teams beat up on soft mid-majors last week, so it’s a good measuring stick this evening to see how any of that success translates in a good, yet not old-fashioned SEC battle. With the offenses expected to shine, it gives us a perfect opportunity to unveil the JCB Over/Under Board and a series of props that surely will decide the outcome of the game. Before going forward, I must give a shoutout to my friend Jerry over at the War Blog Eagle for his insights that helped me behind the scenes to determine just the right props to “release” for this game. If you want great Auburn and SEC coverage you need to make his blog a daily read. On to tonight’s props.

Cameron Newton, total yards of offense, O/U 300.5 yards

The expected star of the game. Cam Newton gives Auburn a chance to have something they havent had in a while: the best offensive player on the field.

Cam Newton racked up close to 400 total yards of offense against Arkansas State in his Auburn debut

Denard Robinson is rightfully getting a ton of press this week, but Cam Newton’s game was statistically as impressive as he rolled up 171 yards rushing and 186 passing against Arkansas State in the opener last week. Newtonpalooza is all the rage on the Plains right now.  He won SEC Offensive Player Of The Week honors, the first Tiger player to do that in four years. It’s been a long journey for the cant-miss recruit, original Florida enrollee turned junior college star. Is it finally his time to make an impact on the SEC?  Newton came within a hair of signing with MSU and head coach Dan Mullen a year ago. In fact, the last time he was in Starkville was for the Egg Bowl last year where  he cheered cowbell in hand for the Dawgs. A few weeks later, however, he comitted to Auburn. Folks in Starkville are having some fun with Newton’s return to town tonight. As I see it, one of the most underrated storylines begins tonight with him. Auburn hosts Clemson and South Carolina to close out September. It’s a great run of competition. And if Newton remains impressive by the end of it, then the race for the SEC West crown is on. And dont be surprised if Auburn, with home games against its toughest league foes until the finale against Bama, becomes a frontrunner in that chase in the fall. That would be significant progress for a team that’s had back-to-back losing SEC campaigns. As for tonight, I dont see why he wont put up some decent to big numbers. He’s going against an MSU D that yielded 35 points a game to bowl teams a year ago. They’ve been one of the worst defenses in the nation for years at getting to the quarterback, so I don’t think you’re going to see the type of pressure that would rattle a new quarterback. I would not take him out of your fantasy roster. And its going to be fun tonight watching him pursue this total. Read more »