Week One

Week One Recap/Week Two Leans

September 8, 2010
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Week One in college football is in the books.  I’ll have my weekly Blog Poll ballot up later tonight. Beginning next week, I’ll do the standard post a draft of the ballot on Monday, let the readers skewer it, then produce my final ballot by the next day. With the holiday weekend, I’m sure I’m not the only voter playing catchup, but assure everyone I will cast my final ballot before Wednesday gives way to Thursday. With that disclaimer on the way, let’s move on to the Week One recap post.

It was not a brilliant opening weekend at the window for the JCB’s picks. But it wasnt a disaster either. Kellen Moore to Austin Pettis not only gave Boise a big win, but it leveled our record on the first week at 4-4-1. Among the great picks include winning on Boise–again–as the rest of the country faded them, getting in early on the Denard Robinson show with Michigan easily covering the spot of -3 against UConn and Oregon State coming in under the +13.5 in their showdown against TCU, a line that had been beckoning me all summer long.

As for the bad? Well, Colorado State was a mistake. I hinted Saturday that I might be forcing this pick and it came back to bite me. What’s worse is the series with Colorado is always one I avoid gambling on, despite its strong slant towards the underdog every year. It figures that when I jump on the bandwagon that the Rams would get blown out.  I should have laid off the Michigan/UConn Over once I saw the wind up in Ann Arbor, although I still feel if UConn puts that drive into the end zone instead of fumbling it away on the 2 near the end of the third quarter that the total would have tilted Over. I suppose I would like to have those two picks back. However, they arent even close to the biggest mistake I made opening weekend.

It’s been almost 72 hours, but I am still kicking myself for betting against Fresno against a BCS school.  Talk about a ridiculous move, one that involved ignoring one of my basic strategic tenants going into each season. Always take the Fresno State Bulldogs when they step up in class and take on a team from a BCS league. Always. No exceptions. First thing I do everytime I pick up my preseason magazines is seek out Fresno’s schedule and circle the dates of the 2-3 matches they have with teams from the Big 6 leagues. I did the same this year and all summer expected to be taking Fresno over Cincy. Until they were installed as a chalk. I didnt just balk at taking them. Worse, I went against them. I apologize to the Great Fu Manchu Pat Hill and his charges. When you invade Oxford later this month to take on the Rebels, I’ll be first in line at the window. Of course, after the Rebels lost to Jacksonville State over the weekend, you might be the chalk in that one too. This time, I wont care.

We trudge on with our .500 record into Week 2 of the college season, not to mention the opening of the NFL. I’m not ready to dole out picks just yet, but, for the moment, here are the games that I am officially leaning towards. When tiggers get pulled, you JCB readers will be the first to know.

Michigan +4 over ND…….its an underdog series. I told everyone to make sure they got +7 over the summer. Hopefully, people followed by lead. I still feel good about this number, even though it’s a field goal lower now. Read more »

College Football Saturdays, Where Have You Been? (Pick$$$$)

September 4, 2010
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The first Saturday of the season arrives and its a very unattractive big board for somebody like me who has an aversion towards playing games that are expected be blowouts. Of the 27 games listed for tomorrow, 9 of them have pointspreads of at least four touchdowns, with seven of those requiring an outlay of more than 30 points in chalk.  Another 10 carry at least a double digit price. There are a lot of power teams tomorrow playing glorified scrimmages like the Florida Gators playing Miami Ohio as 36.5-point favorites. Want to really make that game interesting? Enter our JCB Pick-4 contest  (it’s freee!!!!) and try your hand at the Florida passing touchdowns prop that’s part of the game. Go. Do it. Now. Gamble away all your JCB Dollars.

Speaking of that pick-4, here are my picks for the contest: Michigan Over 3.5 TFLs, ND Under 33.5 points, Florida Under 5.5 TD passes, Will Kellen Moore throw a pick, Yes.

Now onto the real picks of the day.

Colorado State +11.5 over Colorado…..a strict historical play. The underdogs in this game is 14-7 ATS since the mid 1980s, which is just a fancier way of saying Colorado State covers a lot in this series since the Rams are annually the puppy in this Rocky Mountain Showdown every year.  Do I think the Rams are some sort of sleeper team ready to pounce? No. But, I dont think the Buffs are going to be any good either this season. And, even in this down years in recent seasons for CSU, they’ve still showed their best hand early on in the season when the hated Buffs are on the other side of the line of scrimmage. I dont mind playing historic trends, but I would be lying if I said I wasnt concerned in this one. It’s not a series I typically play. The early, noon slate just has no juice to it. This is an earlier kick and at least it gives me something to track during tailgating hours.  This might be a forced play, but I’m comforted by how these games have played out over the last two decades.

Purdue +11 over Notre Dame…..I’ve been threatening this play all summer long. I’m sticking with it. Purdue was only a few plays away from having a really good season a year ago. They played everybody close in their losses it seemed. I also dont trust first year head coaches laying heavy chalk like this. Even though it means going against Brian Kelly, I think this game stays within single digits. Besides betting against the Irish as home favorites in South Bend has become quite the moneymaker in the post Lou Holtz times. Since the lispy leprechaun left town, the Irish are a dismal 26-42-1 ATS as home chalk, including 1-5 in that role a year ago. I’m biting. It’s the Robert Marve Era in West Lafayette, what could go wrong? The Irish have owned Purdue in season openers, but thats just a set of seven games over the course of this annual fight. I prefer the history behind Purdue having covered 5 of the last 7 in this series. Purdue wins if they get pressure on new Irish QB Dayne Crist and with Ryna Kerrigan bullrushing off the line, they’ll get enough pressure to do no worse than keep this game closer than  the experts think. Read more »

Week One: Favorite Underdogs Are All Chalk, What To Do?

August 30, 2010
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If you’re looking for a storyline to track the first weekend of the college football season, how about the arrival of the mid-majors. Boise State starts the year in the top-5, TCU in the top-10. But everyone knows their stories. Their placement in the polls this high may rankle some, but shouldnt be unexpected to anyone who’s been following the game in recent years. Indeed, the polls seem to be priming a clash of the ‘little guys’ for all the marbles in January. Besides, thats not the kind of arrival I am talking about. I’m not even referring to far out Blog Poll ballots with as many as six non-BCS teams in the top-25. (Seriously, I love the Al Golden turnaround at Temple, but 19th? Tell ya what, if they beat Penn State later this month, I’ll give them a vote too). Nope, not even talking about that. I’m talking about the mid-majors arrival at the betting window. They are secrets no more. The best mid-majors might still fight for respect from the crusty old sports writers, bloggers and fans who are loathe to admit anyone from outside the sphere of the big programs can compete at that level. But the fight for respect is complete and victorious at the betting window with the gambling set. These teams are now being installed as chalk against BCS teams in an attempt to even out the action. They’ve mastered the art of hunting as an underdog, but how will they handle the role of hunted favorite? Consider some of these historically lethal underdogs against the power conferences who are favorites in critical non league games to open the season this weekend:

What do you mean we're favored? I cant motivate under those circumstances. Seriously, did you see the last two New Mexico Bowls? This is UNACCEPTABLE!!!

Pitt +2.5 at Utah (Thursday)…..this is the 12th time the Utes have been chalk against a BCS team since 1999, compared to the 18 times they’ve been catching points during the same time frame. Their results in those roles are stark contrasts. As chalk, they lose you money with an average 6-6 record. As pups, they’ve been big moneymakers going 14-4. While the instances of being favorites and underdogs appearas close to balanced as any mid-major could expect, a distinction needs to be made that does illustrate how rare this spot is for Utah in this match. Most of the BCS teams they’ve been chalk against have been terrible. Four times against brutal Arizona teams that eventually won 4, 5, 3 and 3 games in those seasons. There were 2000 games against 3-win Cal and 4-win Wassau clubs, 2002 vs 3-win Indiana and 4-win Louisville a year ago. Of the four other times, three took place during that monster 2004 season, Urban Meyer’s killer 13-0 squad that proved to be a cover machine, including a 4-TD rout over this Pitt program in the Feista Bowl as 15-point chalk. I cant find record of the Utes ever being chalk against a BCS team ranked in the top-25. The Panthers check in at 15th in both polls, while the Utes only qualified for the coach’s poll, sneaking in at 23rd. We’re that close that having an unranked mid-major team favored over a ranked team from a BCS league. According to the AP, we do have such an occurence. I might have to get the JCB research team working OT to find out if such an event has even happened before. This is a pretty big game on Thursday night. Both teams have BCS expectations. The loser suffers a serious blow in that charge, more so if its Utah. And in Dion Lewis for Pitt you have a legit Heisman candidate. Both teams aspire to validate preseason expectations. I’m surprised the game isnt getting more buzz, especially since its the main event on the season’s opening night. I wonder if that has anything to do with the fact the game is on Versus and not an ESPN channel? Nah, no way.

UW +3 at BYU……..No surprise that a program as stellar as BYU is a home favorite against a team with second division Pac 1o finishes five years in a row. But the Cougars are replacing a program all-timer at the QB position. And the Huskies bring to the table at that position the presumptive 2011 NFL top pick. And the betting public still likes the Cougars to win. Some would find that telling. The storyline here is obvious: a rematch of the game two years ago that Locker and Huskies lost in the final seconds after picking up a celebration foul after a late TD, causing a longer than usual PAT to tie the game, which was subsquently blocked. I’m interested in seeing if this Cougar train continues to chug without Max Hall.

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