Soccer

EPL Round Two Picks

August 20, 2011
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Good morning, Hooligans!

I promise, pinky swear style, to have fulltime football coverage beginning Monday. We’ll pick up the never ending soccer season later in the fall from there, but with the start of the college football season within 12 days, the JCB needs to show its true colors and get back into the sport. But, today, a quick soccer picks post, with the second round of the EPL season kicking off today. The highlight of the weekend’s action is the Gunners/Liverpool match at the Emirates, and, of course, we have a pick on that game. We’re 2-1 on the season with a little house money in our pockets. Its not our style to not push some of that back into the middle of the table.

Arsenal/Liverpool, Draw +230….I would take Liverpool to win if this was at Anfield. Heck, I gave strong consideration to taking them to win on the road in this one. The Gunners just arent the Gunners. At least not right now. The Arsenal team on the pitch today wont be the one come the meat and potatoes of the EPL campaign and, even at home, you cant help but wonder if they’re vulnerable even on their home pitch. In addition to injuries to the like of Wilshere and Nasri, today they deal with suspensions to Song and Gervinho. But, I just have a feeling they can play Liverpool, a team still trying to figure itself out and what its best lineup is in its own right to a draw.  Both squads feel like they dropped points a week ago and dont want to put a zero on the board. Plus, its been a draw series with 6 of the last 8 and almost half of the last two dozen matches between the two going to way of the draw. The Reds ran out of gas a week ago and Arsenal will able to net a late equalizer to earn the draw

Swansea over Wigan, -105….another Anti-Wigan pick? Perhaps. It will be interesting to see if their alleged new found defensive mantra carries over on the road against a pumped up Swansea crowd. I enjoyed what I saw from Swansea a week ago against City, but eventually the huge talent disparity showed itself and City ran away late. No such gap in this one. Swansea nails home an early goal and hold on in the end for their first EPL victory.

Aston Villa over Blackburn, -153……Probably too much juice to play on a team of middling quality as Aston Villa. But like in the above Wigan game, this is an Anti-Pick and we’re squarely not in Blackburn’s corner. Even though Villa’s match a week ago at Fulham was unwatchable, Villa still had the moxie to earn a road point. Blackburn, meanwhile, allowed Wolverhampton to come from behind and win. Based on those results and this match being on Villa’s pitch, lets bit on the juice and take them to win. If I had cash at a place with relegation odds, I would take Wigan and Blackburn. Today, we’re betting against both of them. Nobody can say we dont put our money where our mouth is here at the JCB. Hopefully, its yummy.

There are games both tomorrow and Monday, we’ll see if the card gets any additions. For now, just the three picks this morning, all for one unit. Good luck and enjoy the soccer.

Season EPL/CL record: 2-1, + 1.8 units

Draws Dominate EPL Round One; Brand Names Highlight Champions League Playoff Legs

August 15, 2011
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The English Premier League debuted their new campaign over the weekend, stealing the script from this summer’s Copa America. The much hyped South American Championship in July fell short of expectations under the weight of contstant draws, so much so that Paraguay got all the way to the finals without winning a game. The EPL felt a little bit like that as the opening round dances were, by and large, taffy pulls, ending in draws. Sure, five out of nine matches ending in a tie isnt a shocking result, but it took wins by heavy favorites Manchester United and Manchester City in the final two fixtures of the weekend to make the balance that close. Draws dominated Saturday: Fulham and Villa’s nil-nil bog; Newcastle and Arsenal’s own nil-nil display,  made at least exciting by a chippy second half eventually leading to the now (another) infamous Joey Barton meltdown;  Sunderland spoiling the party and earning a point against revamped Liverpool; and Norwich City drawing Wigan and earning its first EPL point in more than 16 years.  Sunday morning, Stoke continued its curious habit of drawing against top teams at home by deadlocking Chelsea in the weekend’s third nil-nil game.  Joe Betting Public took a bath taking home teams to win. Only Manchester City, at whopping -312 in juice mind you, won on their home pitch for their boosters this weekend. It was a nifty weekend for the JCB, however. Let’s take stock:

Norwich City’s draw against Wigan was not only a solid debut in the EPL for the Canaries, but helped the JCB pull a profit in the only single match we invested  in on the weekend. We put a unit on them winning and another on the draw and with the 1-1 result netted a 1.30 unit profit with the draw paying out at +230. Our future plays got off to good starts. Liverpool snatched 1 point from 3, thanks to a defensive breakdown and a second half as chaotically bad as the first was magically hopeful. Despite a thrilling new look, the result was the same old song and dance for the Reds. In the process, it helped out the Under 67.5 total points bet the JCB has in our pocket. We got the first of what we hope will be beaucoup 3-point efforts from ManU. While a win over West Brom isnt much to sneeze at, the Red Devils did only win five times away from Old Tratford a year ago, so we found it exciting. And, hey, they didnt even come close to playing their best lineup and couldnt beat West Ham a year ago. We’re not too concerned about the soft goals David de Gea has been allowing this month, but we’re more concerned about the mounting injuries, especially on the back line, that are hitting the Red Devils. But, then, again there isnt a deeper team in the league than Man U, and we figured that all hands would need to be on deck eventually to hit the over 81.5 points. And each of our top goal scorer picsks, Luis Suarez and Wayne Rooney found the back of the net. Are we worried about the impending Sergio Aguero storm brewing in Man City? No, not yet, although his two goals in less than a half of play was impressive in the 4-0 win over Swansea City. The never ending soccer season has only begun, but we do feel good about how it started.

Champions League Playoff Round

While we’re all pumped the big club seasons are beginning, we dont have to wait for the next weekend for some more action. Attention moves to the 10 two-leg playoff rounds to determine the final spots for the Champions League Group Stage. Those first legs are played over the next two days. On one hand, we could call this an exercise in determining which teams serve as cannon fodder for the continent’s best this fall during Group Stage. A year ago, for example, only 2 of these winners survived into the Knockout Round. However, this year the playoff round is notable for the brand name teams who have found themselves needing to still win an early playoff tie to stay in the tournament. Arsenal, Bayern Munich and Lyons are 23 for 24 in qualifying for the Knockout Round since the current single group stage format was instituted in 2003-04. Only Bayern Munich’s 2006-07 squad, which didnt make the field period, missed out on playing European football into the new calendar year. This season all three of these Final 16 regulars have to navigate the tricky playoff round just to get into a group stage.

Arsenal hosts Serie A’s  Udinese in their first playoff leg today and we’ll get a chance right out of the box to see how the Gunners look now that they are finally clear of the Cesc Fabergas saga. Will they look any better than they did against Newcastle on Saturday? Probably not yet. Arsenal needs to spend their Fabergas bounty during the final two weeks of the transfer season. Their travelling fans at Newcastle took to chanting ‘spend the fucking money‘ and that was before they formally cashed out on Fabergas. What was most evident in their EPL lid lifter against the Magpies was they didnt look capable of scoring.  The Gunners looked slow, sluggish and lacked creativity. New signee Gervinho looked threatening at times, but didnt come close to finishing and then ultimately was tossed earning a red card in the Barton brewhaha. Their only real, memorable chance came on a clean shot from Theo Walcott, who came on as a second half sub, that was saved fairly easily by the Newcastle keeper. Robin Van Persie was active up front, but didnt have much support.  Will this game with Udinese just hammer home the initial ‘meh’ look to the Gunners attack? If so, expect the calls for Wegner to spend big and bring back Samir Nasri to grow. Udinese lost some talent of their own with Alexis Sanchez leaving for Barcelona.  But, they’re still a quality Italian side that went on a big time tear last year after going winless in their first five games.  They have a world class goalie with Samir Handanovic and a big time goal scorer Antonio Di Natale, whose scored 57 goals the last two campaigns in Serie A. Can Arsenal hold him down? Its not that hard to imagine the Italian knocking home a goal and Udinese getting enough quality goal keeping out of Handanovic to get a 1-1 draw. I know I dont trust Arsenal at the juicy -192 odds to win, and those 3/1 odds on the draw look tempting because right now, as the Gunners are constituted, I dont think they can actually beat quality teams. I think this is the best matchup of the 10 and with Arsenal facing killer EPL games against Liverpool and ManU to close the month, I’m sitting this one out and just observing. Arsenal just seems like a confusing team to handicap right now, especially in this event. Read more »

English Premier League Future Plays…..With Bonus Round One Pick!!!

August 13, 2011
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Good morning Hooligans!!!

The never ending soccer season passes by yet another mile marker with the opening round of the new English Premier League season. Everyone is throwing out excellent season previews dividing the table already into three, a different three or even eight groups. I could do the same, but how the heck do I know how many groups there are. I’ll let the early season results come in and set the pace for what groups are defined and which clubs fit into each.  But that doesnt mean the JCB doesnt have early predictions on the season. Here are the future bets we made, with a game pick for today at the bottom.

Manchester United, Over 81.5 points……..ManU won the EPL a year ago with a mere 80 points, the smallest point total for a champion in years. I think the Red Devils are a great bet to top the table again, but I dont think doing so at a similar number is a good bet. ManU looks better than ever. Maybe somebody like City beats them out at the top, but it wont be because ManU ends below the mid-80s on the final table. ManU has gone over this total in 6 of the last 9 years. I’ll bite on the over and sit back to enjoy a season where I have the best team on paper every weeekend.

Liverpool, Under 67.5 points…..I buy Liverpool’s improvement. And, unlike the last two years, they are legit contenders for a top-4 finish on the table. But, hitting this number requires a 10-point improvement from a year ago. The Reds will be fine in the long run, but I think they might run in place the first couple months as Daglish tries to figure what his best lineup is. I could see a lot of three point outcomes turning into single point outcomes just on a lack of familiarity alone in the early going. Of course, Liverpool still has big problems on the back end. Even once the various midfield lineups click, the Reds could be settling for single points–or worse–on defensive breakdowns.  From a fixture standpoint, Liverpool can make a ton of hay down the stretch as they play a boat load of expected second division clubs the final two months. And, all their showdowns the second half seem to be at Anfield. So that could be a problem for the Under. But, hey, maybe Liverpool proves more than ready to wear. In that case, that kind of slate might open the door for us to hedge with Liverpool plays this coming winter and spring. Stay tuned.

Top Goal Scorer

Wayne Rooney, +800……. I am going to break a cardinal rule and mention what I wanted to bet on. I wanted to take Chicharito, the chalk, at +750. But, he enters the season with injury issues, notably a concussion that will keep him out of today and who knows really how much longer. Scotty Bowman is running the ManU information department on this one and nobody really has the clear story. Besides, even though Chicharito deserves to be on the field at all times, he’s still going to have to split enough time with Dimitri Berbatov, so being the top goal scorer might prove too difficult a task. Maybe in 2012-13. So, enter Wayne Rooney, teammate and basically co-chalk with Hernandez, at +800. The thing with both of these guys is they can just go out and play their regular game and end up near the top of the goal scoring charts. That speaks both to their own wonderful talent, but also the talent surrounding them. The difference is Rooney will play a bit more and is in good health to start the season. In my opinion, the odds on these should at least be reversed with Rooney the favorite on the board, but they dont ask my opinion. I hate being a chalk eating Mo Fo, but sometimes its best in these games to take the favorite on the board and whatever meager payout ensues. Rooney is basically chalk, but +800 is nothing to sneeze it. This bet gives me the pleasing aesthetic of taking something both chalky and a prop that has some teeth to its payout. Read more »

Copa America Semifinals: The Story Is Who Isn’t Playing Anymore

July 19, 2011
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When looking at the Copa America semifinals, it’s probably best to take a look at the teams that aren’t playing this week. Namely South American powers Brazil and Argentina. Uh, guys, this continental championship was supposed to be your time in the sun, what happened? The tournament’s Big Guns crashed out. Neither team ever really got going during this event, spending most of group play being ground into draws against less stellar competition. Somehow neither won their group, forcing a real screwy looking Knockout Round bracket. Both had to play a rival that qualified for the final 16 in last year’s World Cup. Both battled hard in a draw, but lost in penalty kicks. Argentina fell to the disciplned defense of Uruguay and Brazil failiedto net a single PK goal in its shootout loss to Paraguay. Somewhere Diego Maradona and Dunga are somewhere playing cards together enjoying a good laugh. Unless Maradona is face down somewhere after a night out with strippers and blow. But maybe last year’s World Cup “failures” werent all their fault after all.

So what happened? Not to make excuses, but its a short tournament and sometimes its hard for these All Star national teams to whip together the proper on field chemistry and form. Teams like Peru and Venezuela, made up of players from their local club leagues, just have more experience playing with each other. It seemed to pay off tactically in Group Stage for some of the alleged minnows in this field. Beyond that, maybe Argentina has too much talent. Much was made of Maradona not knowing how to use the uber talent of Lionel Messi. While new coach Sergio Batista may have a better grip on that challenge, maybe he and the Argentinian federation dont know themselves yet how to build a quality side around Messi. The all star route might need to be altered a bit and focus more on the team building concept, the way USA Basketball did in the wake of their 2004 Olympic failures. Or maybe the new coach was just playing the wrong guys. Perhaps Sergio Aguero should have played more. Or Javier Pastore. Or even Higuan, who showed international scoring touch last summer in South Africa. Something isnt right, thats for sure. Messi is peaking, yet the Argentines looked worse in Copa America than they did last summer at the World Cup.

As for Brazil, what can you say? That’s consecutive summers where this majestically talented roster has fallen flat in international play. Here’s a thought. Maybe Brazil isnt Brazil anymore. Maybe they are just an ordinary side, good enough to beat a lot of teams, but not among the elites like a Spain or Holland. A South American version of the Three Lions. Just a thought. Of course, they were relying a lot in this event on the 19-year-old Neymar and maybe he just wasnt up for the task. Its going to be a long three years of planning and creating a better side in advance of the 2014 World Cup the Brazilians are hosting.

So, the tournament favorites are out. Dreams of a titanic Argentina-Brazil clash have been dashed. There isnt even a loser’s bracket in this field, so we dont even have the chance of the best fifth-place game ever with these sides. What we do have are two countries trying to prove that South America is more than a two-country continent and two countries on something akin to Cinderella runs. Uruguay and Paraguay more than impressed against the world in South Africa a year ago. While they werent great bets to win this event, their place in the semis is not a surprise. But, Peru and Venezuela? They were 125/1 and 60/1 shots to win this event and both were considered the worst team in their 4-team group when the tournament began. Today Uruguay and Peru battle while tomorrow night Paraguay and Venezuela will play to fill out the last championship slot.

This reminds me a lot of the playoffs after the 1996 NFL season when second year franchises Carolina and Jacksonville made it to the NFC and AFC title games respectively. I wanted to see both win for an ultimate Cinderella showdown for the title, or I wanted to see both lose so we wouldnt have a mismatch, at least on paper, with the championship on the line. So, I guess, as a fan, I am pulling for either Uruguay vs Paraguay or Peru vs Venezuela. As a gambler, however, why jump off Draw. This tournament has been Drawtastic. In 22 matches, half of them have ended regulation in a draw. Since you’re getting at least 2/1 odds on a Draw for most games, those playing on the Draw line since the tournament began are banking big bucks. Three quarterfinals ended regulation in a draw and despite the Giant vs Giant Killer feel to this next round, I would be surprised if at least one of these matches didnt end in a regulation tie. In the end, I am going with the chalk to at least advance into the finals. It takes luck to win events like that. And, thats what Peru and Venezuela had going for them last weekend in the quarterfinals. Columbia whiffed on some point blank chances against Peru and then saw their keeper undergo a couple of mind cramps in extra time paving the way for the Peruvian win. Venezuela benefitted from Chile’s burning love affair with hitting the post,, or else they would have been eliminated. Those breaks dont come either of their ways this go around. Uruguay and Paraguay advance to Sunday’s South American Championship match. Book It.

Women’s World Cup Finals: Where Japan May Make Me Wrong Again

July 17, 2011
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I should probably start my babbling about today’s Women’s World Cup Championship match with some homage towards Japan. They are the team that continues to prove me wrong. Back in the NBA playoffs the Dallas Mavericks proved to be JCB correspondent Chitownblue’s own personal waterloo, constantly proving him wrong at every turn until they finally won the championship. Japan are my Mavericks, at least as trying to predict this Knockout Round has gone. There was no way they could they roll the perfect game needed to beat heavy favorite and host Germany. Oops. Well,  ok, then I doubt they have anything left in the tank to keep playing at such a high level and take out Sweden in the semi’s. Yeah, no, not so much. Really their lack of size is going to cost them in the box now that they are playing elite teams in the Knockout Round. LOL INAKURIT!!

Really that might be the biggest myth pushed this World Cup, that Japan, as the field’s smallest team, would have way too much trouble in both boxes to hang with the top dogs. Whether they’re marking on D or attack on O, they’re lack of height would be exposed. Not only has it not been exposed, but Japan seems to be thumbing their alleged shortness at everyone. They generate chances off corners by kicking it to the back post, where only the tall should be surviving. Say what you will about their lack of finishing, but they are dangerous on free kicks anywhere near the box thanks to the lethal  leg of Aya Miyama, whose beautifully placed kick proved the late game winner in their tournament lid lifter vs New Zealand. On the back end, they shackled and stalled out high octane Germany and Sweden. Other than a few minutes in their England match in group play, they’ve played sturdy defense, allowing just two goals with two clean sheets in their other four matches. Saki Kumagai has emerged as a big play defender in this tournament. Her name in Japanese must mean putting out fires or something. She’s been doing that all over the back line since the tournament began. Abby Wambach has been the tournament’s most important player in the finishing box, but its been Kumagai who has been her doppleganger on the back end. In the early moments of the German quarterfinal match, she made two huge plays sweeping the ball off the line on German free kicks. She made an amazing header keeping a Behringer bullet from the back of the net and she thwarted a Garefrekes redirect with a last second sliding kick. In between she marked Da Mbabi like a glove on a beautifully lobbed in entry pass, preventing a legit challenge on frame. Execute any of those plays any less and its at least 1-0 Germany within the game’s first 20 minutes.   She and Wambach provide the game’s fascinating matchup this afternoon.  Wambach has officially entered BEAST MODE with goals in each of the last two matches and her ruthless and relentless play makes her harder and harder to mark as the game wears on. But, do you remember any highlights from the German or Swedish strikers? Yeah, me neither. That’s mostly Kumagai’s doing. Keep an eye on Kumagai (#4) vs Wambach (#20) when the Yanks are on the attack.

Of course, it doesnt matter how tall or how short your team is from a defensive standpoint, if you dont allow the other team the ball. That’s really been the secret to Japan’s success. Nobody keeps the ball better than Japan. They have been the most precise, best passing team in the tournament, and, as such, have great rhythmn to their attack and tend to dominate possession. They dominated Mexico to the tune of an 80 percent completion rate on their passes and broke Germany’s heart in a 120-minute game of keep away, setting the tone with a 57-percent first half possession advantage. Against the best team in the world and two-time defending World Cup Champs. That desevers a YO!  Everyone on their team is just so good on the ball. Their possession passing game is very Barca-like, except their issue has always been turning that style into actual attack and goals. They’ve been able to score just enough in this World Cup to get into this title match. The whole thing is keyed by Homare Sawa. The midfielder has been  the most valuable player in this tournament. Japan doesnt get out of group play without her. If she scores today, she will win the Golden Boot. She’s 32 years old, possibly playing in her last world cup, and she’s been the best all around player the last three weeks.  She’s an offensive and defensive engine, she scored a hat trick vs Mexico and had a beautiful touch ahead for a sweet assist on the overtime go-ahead goal that shocked Germany.  She’s been the best player on the field in both of Japan’s Knockout Round wins. How the Americans attack her and their efforts to somehow keep her off the ball will one of the emerging storylines all afternoon.

The Americans are going for an unprecendented third World Cup title. For the Japanese, it would be their first. Japan hadnt even advanced out of group stage for three straight World Cups until this event. They have more wins during this tournament than they had in the previous four World Cups Combined (4-3). Throw in all the emotion of a team playing in honor of their country devasted by natural disaster earlier this year, killing thousands of their countrymen, and it adds up to a pretty historic day for Japanese sports already. Whats so great about this match is that pretty much everything is clicking for both teams. That needs to happen for teams in any sports to reach a title game, but it seems just so obvious how excellent form both of these teams are showcasing right now in advance of the World Cup Championship. Sawe and Lauren Cheaney are dominating in the midfield. Wambach and Solo are doing their thing. Miyama is scoring off free kicks. Megan Rapinoe is turning games around coming off the bench. There doesnt seem to be a point of major struggle for either team right now. Each team is peaking. Now they’re playing for a World Championship. After playing twice in friendlies in the run-up to this event, there wont be any surprises between these two.  It should be a gas.

We’re going the partisan route and favoring the Americans, who are a chalky -200 to win this game today. Here’s why: Read more »