Over/Under

Ohio State Buckeyes: Over/Under 9 Wins

August 31, 2011
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Ohio State is a wreck. Their situation so confusing, some have dubbed them the ‘unprojectables’ because we just dont know what to expect from them in 2011. Bathed in scandal all off season, the Bucks face the start of the campaign having to replace a starting QB who only lost four starts in nearly three full seasons as a starter, eight starters on defense, including almost all their Back 7, there’s three brand new starters on the OLine who havent played many meaningful snaps and the leading returning wide receiver on the field this weekend in the opener against Akron didnt even have 10 catches a year ago. Oh, and  the steady hand of The Vest is no longer on the sidelines, replaced instead by a young greenhorn whose never been a head coach before.

Clearly, Ohio State is burnt toast. Why bother even playing?

Uh, yeah, not so much. It’s not like they dont have pretty solid Plan A’s in mind to fill what admittedly are gaping holes of productivity they have to replace.  They still will have seven of 11 defensive starters that were rated as 4-star players coming out of high school. Its the most guru approved defense in the conference, so despite the new faces there isnt a defense in the league, save for newcomer Nebraska, that has as much pure talent. It’s the same on the other side of the ball. The three new starters on the offensive line? All 4-star recruits, on campus at least  since 2009, arriving as top-10 players nationally at their line position coming out of high school. While it appears as if the Bucks will start the older statesmen Joe Bauserman at QB to replace Pryor, they have a hot shot freshmen named Braxton Miller, who was practically unbeatable playing in the highest class of Ohio High School Football, waiting in the wings. See, Ohio State recruits well. Extremely well. I know, I know, breaking fucking news isnt it? The guys stepping into new starting roles are, by and large, the young men the Ohio State staff practically hand picked to be their next wave of stars. Its their time. Sure, some wont pan out, but enough of them will perform to their expectations, that Ohio State really wont miss that many beats in Year One Without The Vest. They’re going to be fine. They have more talent on their roster than anybody on their schedule. And, after the fifth game, they welcome back from TatGate Suspension with open arms offensive stars Boom Herron, DeVeir Posey and Mike Adams, top shelf Big 10 players at thier positions.

So maybe they’re a bit depleted without those guys, but I dont think anybody on their slate in those first five games can beat them anyway. Akron? Not a chance. Colorado? Look, its not the mid-1990s anymore. Rashan Salaam isnt walking through that door in a blue haze of pot smoke any time soon. The Buffs are terrible and look destined for the bottom of the Pac-12. Miami? L-O-L. Isnt Jacory Harris still their QB? Maybe the Bucks take it easy on them, gratitude for taking virtually all the scandal heat away from Columbus and placing in the heart of Coral Gables. The U might be starting their entire second team defense, thanks to all the ensuing suspensions, so put this, without hesitation, into the OSU win column. Toledo? Well, the Rockets are quality this year. And, I suppose they could hit a big play early with Eric Page and that freshmen sensation DB Cheatem Norrils could swipe an early pick off the wayward arm of Joe Bauserman, all of which nets the Rockets an early lead and a chance at the upset. As much praying to the Football Gods that I do, I still dont expect this scenario to play out. It will be an OSU blowout. Maybe MSU, the final game of the suspensions? But, man, the game is in Columbus, and I’ll believe an MSU road win over Ohio State when I see it. Besides, the Spartans never, ever beat the teams they’re not supposed to.

So, expect the Bucks to still start 5-0. And,  then they get their three best players on offense back on the field. I know, it sucks, doesnt it? Despite that, the Bucks will struggle and likely lose at Nebraska. They always have trouble with the Badgers, although that game is in Columbus this year. Illinois has played them tough in recent years. Maybe Penn State will figure out how to score multiple touchdowns at the Shoe? Maybe Michigan can finally give them a game again? I just dont see more than 2-3 losses for this team. Can I see them losing one game because Fickell isnt The Vest? Yes. Can see them losing one game on account of their shocking inexperience at the QB position? Sure, it happens.  Can I see them losing one game becuase there might be a single game where all the new faces on D play a poor game? For sure. But which Big 10 teams, outside of Nebraska and Wisconsin, do we know have the chops to beat them? We dont. Read more »

Iowa Hawkeyes: Over/Under 8 Wins

August 30, 2011
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The only places I could find a win total on Iowa placed the bar for the Hawkeyes at over/under 8 wins. That’s too bad, because I could have been suckered into playing the over with the Fighting Ferentzes at 7.5 as I think this team will hit 8 wins right on the nose. With all due respect to Iowa State and Pitt, the Hawks will put up a 4-0 in the non-conference slate. And, as long as they do something they’ve at least done in 9 of the last 10 years, that being put up no worse than a 4-4 league mark, then you’ve got eight wins. Sadly, that would only be a push in these circumstances. Its only one more win, but I think the jump from 8 to 9 wins might be difficult for Iowa. But, I feel good about them bossing their non-league slate and at least breaking even in Big 10 play. I have total faith in Ferentz’s program management and he and his coaching staffs ability to win Big 10 games despite whatever personnel hand they’re dealing with.

 Obviously, this year’s team is replacing a ton of star power, especially on defense. Overall, their nine returning starters is by far the fewest in the conference. All that gives some pause, but I dont buy a collapse in Iowa City. Dont forget last year’s team sort of underachieved due to some serious Senioritis. And, that senior core apparently loved, loved, loved partying with now departed teammate’s Darrel Johnson Koulianas’ drug stash. My gut tells me Ferentz might have this team’s undivided attention, more so than last year’s talented outfit. Plus, it’s Iowa City science: When the Hawks have a ton of expectations, they crater under the heavy weight, but when folks expect a poor, substandard season, the Hawks overachieve and deliver the goods. The Hawks will have a good offense. QB James Vanderberg has performed well in the past when called upon, they have four starters on the offensive line returning, Marcus Coker looks like an All Big 10 caliber tailback and Marvin McNutt, their top wideout from a year ago returns. And, you know, somewhere on that bench is a tight end that will come out of nowhere and nab 30 catches, most of which will result in first downs. The defense looks anonymous, but they Hawks havent allowed more than a 20 points per game average in years. Again, my faith in Ferentz and Norm Parker drives my confidence that this unit, while nameless now, will still prove sturdy enough.

The Hawkeyes schedule really plays to their advantage. The slate ducks Wisconsin and Ohio State and overall its geared towards piling up wins in October and November. Let’s play it forward and throw a few worst case wrenches in there. Let’s say Iowa only splits those OOC games with Iowa State and Pitt. Let’s say their hex on Penn State ends and, as a result, Iowa is sitting at 3-2 after five games. Here’s their next 6: Northwestern, Indiana, at Minnesota, Michigan, Michigan State and at Purdue.  Iowa is probably going to be favored in all of those games unless a total collapse happens. I wont call out a six game winning streak (like, how about just beating the Purple Wildcats just once in your life, will ya Hawks?!?!?!), but they have a shot to get to nine wins with that helpful stretch of games, four of which are at home and one at Minnesota,  might as well be home as Hawk fans take over the Gophers home field on the reg. But, again, I feel they beat Pitt in September and will be at least 4-1 after five games. They will get to eight wins during that six game stretch. But can they get nine wins? That regular season finale in Lincoln against the Cornhuskers probably keeps their ceiling at eight wins. The formal JCB call on Iowa is 8-4, 4-4 in Big 10 play. It’s not an uncommon prediction as nine of 11 different Big 10 bloggers agree on at least eight wins. Not a bad season for the Hawks considering all the replacement parts they have to fill. But, it wont be good enough–or poor enough–to cash either an over or under wins ticket.

Big 10 Over/Under Wins: Penn State, Wisconsin, Nebraska

August 30, 2011
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Running out of off season. I mean, is it really the off season at this point any way. We’ve already talked Michigan State and Northwestern as far as regular season win totals. Let’s take a look at Penn State, Wisconsin and Nebraska, with thoughts on Ohio State, Michigan and Iowa before the first pigskin carrier is tackled in anger. Promise.

 Penn State, O/U 7.5 wins. Over, -130; Under +110

The challenge factoring whether or not Penn State will go over this total or not is you have to decide if the Nittany Lions can win more than 7.5 games before the end of October. I dont know if anyone in the Big 10, or even the country, has a tougher November than the three game stretch the Nits will face that month to close the year: Nebraska, at Ohio State and at Wisconsin. At least they start the month with a bye to give them time to ramp up for that guantlet. But they’re already underdogs in all those games–+3 vs Brasker, +4 at OSU and +9.5 at Wisco–and, at this point, I doubt if they have the chops to cover those games let alone put any of them in the win column. They get the Huskers at home, which will help, but the Husker defense line will throttle the Lions the way the Iowa Hawkeyes front have in recent years. If that was a bad matchup for the PSU offense, then this is a terrible matchup. Ohio State might be reeling from scandal, but they arent down on talent. Besides, Penn State barely scores touchdowns on the reg  in The Horseshoe, let alone wins games there. As for Wisco, the Lions have owned the Badgers the last two times they’ve played, but the programs havent faced each other since 2008. PSU has come down a notch or two since then, while Wisconsin  has elevated a notch or two. And the game is in Camp Randall in the finale where the Badgers have been practically unbeatable in their last home game since Barry Alvarez rode into town.

So you have to ask yourself if you want the Over, can the Lions then cash in 8 of their 9 games played before October ends? Considering they host Alabama in Week 2, the real question is can they go 8-for-8 in the rest. With four games that would shock me if they won, I couldnt put money on the Over unless I was positive they could sweep the other eight. I’ll give them wins against Indiana State, Temple, Eastern Michigan, Indiana and Purdue. While I could be convinced to favor them to win, I dont think they are anything close to a lock in the remaining three games against Iowa, Illinois and at Northwestern. Iowa has taken away all their manhood three years running, Illinois kind of dominated the Nits a year ago and Northwestern has the offense at home to make any non-elite Big 10 squad sweat it out. If the Nittany Lions misstep against any of those three, then thats a win that needs to be made up against that brutal closing stretch. Who wants to be in that position? Not me. This is an Under play or nothing. We are not alone in this thinking.

Wisconsin, O/U 9.5 wins. Over -145, Under +125

The Badgers need double digit wins to cash any over play. In four of the last seven seasons, they’ve landed exactly on nine and twice have hit at least double digits. So, the Badgers ought to be in the ball game the whole way on this. Unlike Penn State, the Badgers have a manageable closing schedule to gobble up and, if necessary, make up ground on the win total. November games against Purdue, at Minnesota, at Illinois and Penn State seem geared to at least go 3-1, but the Badgers will likely be chalk in all four of those games.  They’ve lost just once combined against Purdue, Minnesota and Illinois over the course of the last six seasons. They should shovel in a boatload of wins in the early going against a slate that doesnt force them into a true road game until October 22. Their non confernece slate of UNLV, Orgeon State, Northern Illinois at Soldier Field and South Dakota has 4-0 written all over it. Yes, those games against the Beavers and Huskies might be tougher, but Northern is replacing their entire defense. That equals too many matchup problems with the Badgers to really threaten the upset. Oregon State is always solid. But they’re typically abysmal in September, they’re trying to replace their best player and they dont seem to have solved any of the issues that plagued their losing season a year ago.  I dont see any worse than 7-1–and I would put money on 8-0–amid the combined tally of their first four and last four games of the season. But those middle four games, outside of a home date with the Hoosiers-is where the rubber will be meet the road for Wisconsin. A home date with Nebraska to start October and road dates at Ohio State and Michigan State ending that month. The Badgers will have to win one, if not two of those showdowns to get to double digits wins, depending on what they do the rest of the way. The one thing I can say about the Badgers is they are the one Big 10 program right now that at least knows how to beat Ohio State, seeing as if they’re a modern historic bugaboo for the Bucks. That, and the decpetive Russell Wilson, gives what was a lethal offense a year ago, even more potential potency. If they beat Nebraska and split those roadies against the Bucks and Spartans, then only some major upsets against them will keep them double digit wins and this over hitting.

Nebraska, O/U 9.5 wins. Over -155, Under +145 Read more »

Michigan State: Regular Season Wins, O/U 7.5

August 24, 2011
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I’ve asked several of my Michigan State friends what MSU has to do this year to match last year’s tremendous effort that netted an 11-win regular season and their first share of a Big 10 title  in 20 years. The best answer I received was an acerbic response noting that they would have to win two games by fooling teams on fake kicks, like a year ago. Funny, for sure, but it also ilustrates how hard it is to win double digit games in college football and the foolishness in expecting it to happen again. The Spartans could be a better team this year, but a harder schedule, combined perhaps with the inability to pull any magic rabbits out of their fake punt hat, could conspire against MSU and lead to a significantly worse record than a year ago. Certainly oddsmakers are prepped for the possibility. And the public might be fretting over MSU based on the illusion of last impressions and the bowl game blowout loss to Alabama. Despite ripping off 11 regular season wins a year ago, Books have set the over/under for 2011 regular season wins for Michigan State at a paltry 7.5.

All discussion on the Spartans begins with their schedule, which is significant upgrade from a year ago. Last year, MSU didnt play Ohio State at all. This year, they play the Bucks in Columbus, albeit it will be the final game that 4 OSU offensive starters will be suspended for their parts in TatGate. The Notre Dame game is in South Bend, the Spartans have to travel to Iowa City for a second year in a row after being woodshedded at Kinnick by the Hawks a year ago. Oh, and there is also a trip to Nebraska. While they get home games with Michigan and Wisconsin, there isnt an MSU fan out there who realizes their schedule is much harder this year, making for some apprehensive excitement for the 2011 Green and White. On one hand, when your expected trap games include the likes of Florida Atlantic, Central Michigan and Indiana, there are a lot of wins to be had. But that just shows the rest of their schedule is full of slobber knockers, rivalry blood fests and clashes between Big 10 titans that could go, at best for MSU, either way.

Here is the thing with MSU’s slate. They are going to be an underdog in several of those games. Indeed, oddsmakers have already made them dogs in their games at Notre Dame, +7; at Nebraska, +11; vs Wisconsin +3; and at Iowa +1. There isnt a line for their game in Columbus yet, but you have to think that unless the Luke Fickell Era is a total collapse in September that the Buckeyes will be chalk. (The Spartans are -4.5 chalk at home against Michigan, by the way.) Why do I bring these lines up in discussion on how many wins MSU will end up with this season? Because the Spartans never win when they are an underdog.  When installed as an underdog, the Spartans are just 45-92 straight up since 1985.That’s a 32.8-percent winning mark, less than 1 out of every three games.  By comparison, Michigan is 24-30-1–45 percent–in the same time frame and that’s with the 4-13 from the last three disastrous Rodriguez seasons plunging those figures. The numbers for MSU have been trending downward the last decade or so. Since 2003, their record as a dog is just above 25 percent at 13-34. Under Dantonio, they fall further to 4-14, about 22 percent. Dantonio has done a lot of good in East Lansing, from the near abolition of the Sparty No! moment, a Big 1o title, three wins in a row over Michigan, making potluck dinners exciting again in East Lansing and so on. But, he hasnt been able to get the Spartans to beat the teams they shouldnt.  Frankly, I am not even impressed with most of the ‘upset wins’ in the Dantonio Era. In 2007, they ‘upset’ a Purdue team destined for the Motor City Bowl with their .500 record and a Penn State team still hampered by the words ‘Anthony Morelli is your starting quarterback.’  A year ago, they ‘upset’ a beyond vulnerable Michigan squad and their perpetually bent and broken defense. Their home win as +3 over Wisconsin last year was legit, for sure, but the bottomline is going into Lincoln, Columbus, South Bend and Iowa City and winning as an underdog are taller orders for MSU and something the program has never  proved it could do with any consistency.

There is a ton to like about this Spartan team. They have the most dangerous set of tailbacks in the league. Kirk Cousins remains the quarterback. He’s throwing to an underrated, experienced set of targets. They are deep along the defensive line, anchored by all conference contender Jerel Worthy. In Trenton Robinson and Johnny Adams, they have two of the best defensive backs in the league. Keshawn Martin is an explosive weapon in the return game.  I’m excited about their replacement starters on defense and the whole unit looks ready to get it on. Linebacker is an obvious question mark with the departures of Greg Jones and Eric Gordon, but man have the Spartans recruited well on this front. Max Bullough, a 2010 4-star recruit and Denicos Allen, a redshirt sophomore who made a handful of big plays for MSU a year ago, combined with holdover Chris Norman still form a very good, if not green on the starting front, Big 10 LB corps.

The real concern is the offensive line. Replacing three starters, the unit will be inconsistent and enough of a monkey wrench for the offense to keep MSU from repeating its dream season of 2010. They are breaking in a pair of new tackles. One is a Dan France who for the previous two years has played defense. Generally speaking, its not a good thing when somebody flips sides of the ball and becomes an instant starter. The Spartans are doing the same with Blake Treadwell, but despite trying him at various positions on the line, he cant find the first team. A lot of MSU fans will highlight this as a sign of depth, but I am dubious of that assertion. When your starting lineup and two deep relies so heavily on transfers from the defense, redshirt freshmen and incoming JC recruits, thats a sign that the unit isnt ready for wear more than anything else. I do like the Skylar Burkland kid at the other tackle. The redshirt frosh was a bigtime recruit and has a chance to be a whale of a player. But, I also recall Taylor Lewan’s redshirt freshmen season for Michigan a year ago. He showed us all his potential, but also saw his game betrayed by inconsistent play, missed assignments and bad penalties. The same inconsistencies will hit Burkland. He will make mistakes. Will they happen in big spots like some of Lewan’s? Will they kill Kirk Cousins in pass protection? It’s enough of a question mark for me to slow any roll on pronouncing with surety any win total. The offensive line will have enough matchup problems against the Notre Dame, Ohio State and Nebraska fronts that, on the road, it could be enough to make a difference between winning and losing for MSU. Read more »

Northwestern Over/Under

August 11, 2011
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 We’re a little late of these. Last year we attempted to ‘preview’ the Big 10 by creating mock Over/Under prop bets that spoke to the relevant issues facing each team. They were fun and well received, so the plan this summer was to repeat that venture. Obviously, and thankfully, we are running out of off season. In the short time we have until footballs get kicked off in anger, lets see how many league teams we can hit. We’ll start today with the Northwestern Fighting Fitzgeralds. Again, these are not real lines and are for amusement purposes only.

Jeremy Ebert, Total Catches O/U 70.5; Total Receiving Yards, O/U 999.5

Readers of the JCB know that Jeremy Ebert is one of my favorite players in the Big 10. A year ago, he delivered a junior campaign that exceeded his combined career totals entering the season in catches, yards and touchdowns. The final tally read 62 catches, 953 yards, 15.3 yards per catch and 8 touchdowns.  He was just a 2-star ‘athlete’ recruit after a high school career in suburban Columbus as a run first quarterback. But after his 2010 breakout, he’ll be spending his senior season competing for first team All Big 10 honors and challenging for the top spot on the statistical pecking order for league pass catching targets.  His 953 yards and 77.3 yards per game were the best in the Big 10 a year ago.  His 62 catches were good for fifth in the league, 15.4 ypc, tied for 9th and 8 TD tied for the fifth.  He had three 100-yard games in Big 10 play, scored an acrobatic fourth quarter TD to secure the Minnesota win and provided an offense that enjoys the dink and dunk game with a big play threat to keep defenses honest. And the rub with Ebert’s numbers is he slumped at season’s end, perhaps the Wildcat on offense most impacted by the Persa injury–with just 7 catches for 104 yards and no TDs over the final three games. Even if he doesnt get the full season with Persa, you’d like to think that an entire offseason working with backup Evan Watkins would help get those two on the same page, or at least better than down the stretch a year ago. He’s got an outside shot of challenging DeWayne Bates single season school record of 1,245 receiving yards, but I think the Wildcat offense spreads it around too much for him to pull that feat off. I do expect another career year to top last year’s marks and feel he’s got a 70-catch, 1000-yard season brewing.

Total Offensive Drives Of 10 Or More Plays, Over Under 35

Here’s a little secret about Northwestern. They have a quiet arrogance that very few teams can stop their offense when its rolling in the right direction. They might lack big play punch and guru approved recruiting talent, but their style, patience and pace of attack have kept Big 10 foes of all variety–not to mention heavy favorites from the SEC and Big 12 in bowl games–off balance and looking for answers. Their dink and dunk attack, puntuated by a QB who can move the chains with his legs, specializes in keep-away and long drives. No team in the country was better than Northwestern at generating long drives, from a play by play standpoint. Per the Fremeau Efficiency Offensive Rankings, the Wildcats led the nation in drives that involved at least 10 or more plays, with 23.1 percent of their drives involving that much action. Think about that, almost one-quarter of their drives took at least 10 plays. And these numbers, like Ebert’s individual stats, declined significantly without Persa in the lineup as the Cats had just one such drive in their final two Big 10 games.  With everybody ‘cat-iously optimistic’ that Persa will return 100 percent, there is no reason to think these long drives will dry up. When peaking, the Cats use their ability to stay on the field and run a lot of plays to their advantage. They had four 10-plus play drives in a hard fought 1-point win over Minnesota. They came back and beat Iowa in the final minutes on the strength of a pair of long fourth quarter drives. And, they climbed out of a big early hole and almost came back to beat Texas Tech in the bowl game marching on three drives of this length against the Red Raiders. But, embarking on long drives is only half the battle. Northwestern had a major problem cashing in full on these possessions. They had a total of 34 drives of at least 10 plays, but failed to score on 20-percent of those drives and only scored touchdowns on half of those drives. Without doing a full accounting of college football, my instinct tells me that at least that touchdown rate needs to be higher on these drives, especially if it’s your speciality. Seems to me that Northwestern left a lot of points on the field even as they allegedly controled games with these drives. They came up empty on mulitple long drives in a 3-point loss to Purdue and twice in the fourth quarter against Penn State embarked on 10 or more play drives only to turn it over on downs when down 14 points, while I had a Cats +7.5 ticket in my pocket. Dammit!!  So, while the question with this prop involves whether or not Northwestern can exceed last year’s total of these long drives, the truth behind any eventual success this season will be making more hay out of those drives than they did a year ago. Read more »