Olympics

Winter Olympics: Hockey Quarterfinals Eliminate Gold Medal Contenders

February 24, 2010
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If Sunday was considered a great day for hockey, then what is today? Frankly, its a better day. The matchups are almost as juicy across the board. And, well, this isn’t round robin play anymore. We’re at the quarterfinals of the knockout stage. We’ll be sending at least two teams home today that didnt just dream of a gold medal, but expected one. Winners advance to the medal round. Losers face a ton of home country angst and hard questions on the structure of the teams they put together.

If today is anything like yesterday’s qualification round, then expect a lot of drama, close games and anxious fans. Of the four games yesterday, only Canada’s laugher against Germany was over early. The other three games all were decided by a single goal, with the underdogs going 2-1-1 ATS. The Swiss had to go all the way to the shootout stage before putting away Belarus. The Czechs dodged a major upset bid by downing surprise Latvia with a golden goal midway through the overtime session. In the nightcap, Slovakia, suddenly everybody’s medal darkhorse, was deadlocked with Norway midway through the third period before scoring the go ahead goal and hanging on for the 4-3 win. The end result? The four biggest longshots to win this tournament were all eliminated yesterday. And, there’s no rest for the winners. All advance into today’s quarterfinals to play much tougher foes.

As the final winter olympic hockey bracket crystallized, the odds shifted. Prior to the Olympics, the Canadians were the chalk. The best price you could get them at was even money, but places like sportsbook.com had them as expensive as -200 to take home gold. The Russians were 2/1 or less across the board at various books. Per BoDog,  the pre-Olympics odds for the other contenders today had the Swedes at 5.5/1, USA at 6/1, the Czechs 15/1, Finland 16/1, Slovakia 40/1 and the Swiss 125/1. 

By gaining the top seed, the Americans have gone from underdogs to one of the favorites. But at 7/2, the Americans still arent one of the top two teams per the betting public. Those designations still belong to Canada and Russia.  One will be ousted before the day ends, adding an element of danger to any bet on either country to win the gold. Both have better payouts today on the future lines than they did a week ago, but they still remain the co-favorites with Canada at 9/5 and Russia 11/4. Thats pretty close to 2/1 and 3/1. Considering you had to pay 200 just to win 100 on the Habs prior to the first face off last week and today you can get them at practicially the oppositie price, that’s what we would call value in the capping world.  Sweden is now 5/1; Finland 11/1; Czechoslovakia 12/1; Slovakia 25/1; and the Swiss remain the 125/1 longshot they were before the tournament began. Place your bets accordingly. And in between action, ponder if the NHL should adopt the Olympic point system.

USA vs Switzerland, 3:00 est. Lines, USA -2.5, O/U 5.5

Team USA opens the quarterfinals againt the Swiss, 30 years to the day they clinched their last gold medal with a win over Finland to cap the 1980 Miracle On Ice. With that kind of historic karma on their side, there is no way they lose today to the Swiss, right? Read more »

Winter Olympics: Team USA Holding Off German, Norwegian Charge For Golds

February 23, 2010
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The Olympics are coming into its final turn and the medal counts are anybody’s game. Well, not really anybody. It’s a legit two-horse race between the Americans and Germans for most overall medals. Team USA has been the lead dog from the first day of competition. They’ve pretty much had twice as many medals than just about every other country since the games began over ten days ago. Except for Germany. The Germans have been in hot pursuit all along, tying the Americans at one point late last week before another Team USA flurry of medals throughout the weekend expanded their lead back up to seven. But, the Germans are closing again. Skeleton, Bobsled and Nordic skiiing medals the last two days has been enough to overcome Bode Miller’s gold in the combined ski and the American pairs figure skating silver medal during the same time. As it stands heading into today, Team USA has 25 medals, four more than the Germans 21. Norway, 14, Russia, 11 and Canada, 10 are the only other countries with double digits. The overall medal count is a decided two-team race over the final six days of competition.

The same can not be said in the pursuit for the most gold medals as five countries are within two golds of another as the final week of competition gets underway. Team USA and Germany are tied with 7, Norway has 6 and Canada and Switzerland both have 5. Dont sleep on the Swiss or Canadians right now. There is more than enough skiiing for the Swiss to take over and add to their gold count. As far as the Canadians, they remain the favorite to home gold in both men’s and women’s hockey and curling. If they follow through and sweep those events and find a way a to pick up 1 or 2 more golds somewhere, they might be hard to beat. As the Winter Action Sports (such as ski cross) heat up again in the final week, Team Canada expects to make up ground. The Swiss were a 50/1 longshot to win most golds while Canada was 4/1. Those bets remain alive as we go deep into the final week of play.

For the most part, my focus has been on the top three teams. Team USA because, well, their the home team and winning a Winter Olympic medal count would be a huge breakthrough for the program. Germany and Norway because I have fuutre bets on both those countries to take home most golds. The bigger bet is the even money odds on Germany. The smaller bet, but much bigger payout is the 12/1 shot on the Norwegians. With these three countries bunched up at the top, this has become the most exciting Olmypics for me, well, ever.

Today is going to be a killer day in the race between these three countries, not to mention some chances for the Canadian and Swiss darkhorses on the rail to make a move. There will be a lot of head to head matchups between athletes from these countries going for podium spots in events today.

No more so than in the Combined Nordic Team Event, where all three countries are among the favorites to take gold. It was a little over a week ago when American Johnny Spillane made history, becoming the first ever U.S athlete to medal in a Nordic Combined event when he took a silver in the individual competition. Now, he is back, along with teammates Todd Lodwick, Bill Demong and Matt Dayton, trying to archoestrate a similar breakthrough in the team event. Team USA finished in fourth place in 2002, fell to seventh in 2006 and are coming off a dissapointing World Championship appearance a year ago during which they were disqualified. But, if the results of last week’s individual competition is any indication, the Americans are back and a legit threat today as they finished 2-4-6 in the final standings. For Lodwick, the lure of the podium has kept him skiing competitvely all these years. These could be his last career events and that elusive medal is still out there tantalizing him. Read more »

Winter Olympics: Super Sunday Of Hockey

February 21, 2010
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The serious business of the Olympic Hockey Tournament begins today. Oh sure, we’ve had five days of solid, engaging action. But today feels different, doesn’t it? It’s the final day of round robin competition. And for the first time this Olympiad, the big boys play each other. It’s time for the real hockey to begin. This entire tournament is the pinnacle of the sport of hockey and today it hits a new peak. It’s the closest hockey will get to having a  Super Bowl Sunday. Not just one match, but three today. And, it has a made for TV feel to it as well. All three are rematches from a previous Gold Medal game in the NHL-in-the-Olympics Era. All three are bigtime rivalries. Scandanavian bragging rights? Check. Eastern European hard feelings? Check. North American rivalry? Check. All three are in play today, not to mention critical seeding placement and byes as we head into the knockout rounds beginning Tuesday afternoon.

Some of the most important stakes are on the line in the first game of the day between Russia and Czechoslovakia. And, its a game anxious Team Slovakia fans are keeping an eye on. A Czech win today over the Russians, not only will give the Czechs one of the top three seeds, but it will also drop the Russians into 7th place and put the Slovaks into the top-6 of the draw. There are dozens of dizzying combinations the final bracket may look like after today’s games in the books, but I think the important scenarios to track today are the ones that have Russia losing today and the Canada subsequently doing enough today to claim the #2 seed. One such situation is a Canada win in regulation. Combine that with the Czechs win and the Finland/Sweden result, as long as one of those results end  in regulation with the other winning in OT. The team winning in regulation would be the top seed, but Canada would beat out either team winning in OT for the #2 seed becuase they would have the same amount of points, but the Habs would have a better goal differential. Why are those outcomes compelling? Because it leaves Canada as the #2 seed and Russia as the #7 seed. They would be destined for a gold medal game in the quaterfinals. These are the two favorites in this field. The hockey world cant wait to stop and watch  Crosby and Ovechkin add another chapter to their rivalry on the International, Olympic stage. A gold medal is supposed to be on line, not a spot in the semifinals. If the bracket falls like that, this tournament, already anybody’s game, becomes even more up for grabs. This becoming the future bracket is a storyline I’m following today.

It all becomes irrelevant if Russia wins this first game in regulation or in overtime against the Czechs. Some have suggested some lineup shuffling for Team Russia as a lack of cohesion so far has been the best defense againstthe likes of  Evgeny Malkin. Their coach has said they’ve simply lacked passion during the round robin game. It should not be too hard to raise their ire with Eastern European rivals across the ice from them. The Czechs have been great in their first two games. And, Jaromir Jagr, playing in Russia the last two years, has been fun to watch again. He looks rejuvenated. The winner today will likely be  no worse than a third seed and, thus, receive somewhat of an earlier draw. At least Russia would avoid Canada in the quarterfinals, right? Not so fast my friend, if Canada loses in regulation they might fall as far as the sixth seed. Like we said, there are dozens of bracket possibilites. Today, I’m paying attention to the ones that would create a Russia/Canada, Crosby/Ovechkin fest in the quarterfinals, two rounds before most of the betting public assumed it would happen.

Of course, here in North America, the GAME OF THE DAY, is USA vs Canada and the Americans are the decided enemy and underdog heading into the contest. It’s been over 50 years since the Americans beat the Canadiens in an Olympic hockey game.Despite that hammer and nail-like relationship, this is a legit rivalry. If they break that streak today, Team USA could very well be the top seed heading into the knockout round and wouldnt have to face any of the NHL-laden big boy teams until the medal round. Considering in two of the three Olympics with the NHL, Team USA hasnt even made it as far as the semifinals, earning the top seed and the easiest draw to get to the Final Four would be quite a coup. With a win today in regulation, Team USA, barring a major upset on Wednesday, would pretty much do no worse than playing for a medal, something they’ve only done in 4 different Olympics–at least play for a medal–since World War II.  Of course, they are big underdogs today. Canada is favored by 1.5 goals, the biggest spread oddsmakers have on the three games today. The Americans had a breakthrough a month ago in International Hockey by beating Team Canada in the junior worlds. They did it by being faster than the Canadiens. They’ve constructed an Olympic team based on speed and we’ll find out tonight if they can handle the powerful oak trees on the Canadien blue line.To be succesful, they need their centers to step up and take over the game. More than the other two games, this one will feature teammate vs teammate on several different occassions. Team USA has looked better than Canada during the first two games. But it could provide a wake up call for Canada and bad news for Team USA today.

I dont have much to say about the nightcap, Sweden vs Finland. I bet most people have forgotten that these are the teams that played for the Gold Medal in Torino in 2006. And, as neighboring countries, they have a little bit a rivalry, that borders on obsessive hatred. Seriously, Finland? Writing stories in 2008 about Sweden not winning medals in Beijing? Here’s a thought, try winning your own medals first. Anyway, this game brings Peter Forsberg back into the game and these Olympics might be the last go around for one of the game’s greatest players the last 20 years. If Finland wins, they have a strong chance at the top seed. Sweden, on the other hand, has the weakest goal differential of all the expected top six clubs. Read more »

Winter Olympics: What's Norwegian For 'Here Comes Norway'

February 20, 2010
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I ask because, well, HERE COMES NORWAY. Earning a pair of golds in each of the last two day, Norway was jumped right back into contention for the most gold medals. Team USA has six golds and still leads the chase, but Norway now is right on their heels with five. Germany has four. Suddenly my 12/1 play on Norway which looked dead after Norwegian favorites fell flat the first couple days of the Olympics is in better shape than my even money play on Germany. Not that the Germans are out of it with four golds. The race is on. As for the overall medal count, the race might be over. Team USA is on the verge of lapping the field. With 20 medals, they are now seven better than Germany, their biggest lead over the Germans during this Olympiad. They have twice as many medals as any other country, a margin they’ve held since the opening day of competition. While I am excited that the 12/1 play on golds is in play, the smarter bettors are the ones with 4/1 plays on Team USA to win the most medals and the most golds. I’d be shocked at this point if one of those didnt come in. The games enter their second week. The hockey tournaments pick up in stakes. And there are plenty of Nordic events left for Norway to get more golds and steal this thing.

AMERICANS BREAK OUT THEIR ALL STARS…….AGAIN

Look for Team USA to try and bite back today. They have three of their biggest stars today going for medals in Lindsey Vonn, Shanni Davis and Apolo Ahton Ohno. The speed skating events will be basically held live during NBC’s prime time. Vonn’s ski race will be on tape delay during the broadcast, so we’re on No Spoiler alert this afternoon. Unless we watch the action via live stream on Canada’s TSN website, of course.

Vonn goes in her third event, looking for her second medal. But, she is hardly just the story. American won only 2 medals in Torino. This season Team USA skiers have a total of six medals through four events. Bode Miller and Julie Mancusco have two apiece. The Americans have never medalled in every Alpine event during an Olympiad. While there is a long way to go before they accomplish that, they still have not been shutout from the podium yet in Vancouver.

Today, it’s the Women’s Super G.  If the betting odds tell us anything, its dont expect the American streak to end today. Vonn is the heavy favorite to take the gold medal from this 53-skier field. She is listed as 8/11 at BoDog and as pricey as -200 at sportbook. Two hours before the race, you cant even find odds at BetUs, perhaps in a move to stop one sided betting on the American. She is skiing 17th today, so her run will take place sometime during the mid-2:00 hour est. Her American teammate Julie Mancusco is the first out of the gates this afternoon. It’ll be interersting to see  if she can set a blazing pace. She’s already earned two silvers this Olympiad, so nobody on the women’s side is skiing better than her right now. To take the gold, she’s a 9/1 shot. It’s also not a women’s Alpine race without the ubiquetous European stars Marie Riesch and Anja Paerson.  They both had disappointing downhills, but rallied to take gold and bronze in the combined event. Both go off at 5/1 odds today. Reisch, the German, skis 12th, while the Swede Paerson skis after Von in the 21st slot. Read more »

Winter Olympics: A Six-Pack Of Medals Puts Team USA Atop Leaderboard

February 18, 2010
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Yesterday was fun at the Olympics. Team USA reasserted its muscles after its first medal-less day. They picked up six medals, including three golds. They re-established a four medal lead over in Germany in the overall medal count and have twice as many medals as any other country in the field. They also have the most Golds again with 5, two ahead of Germany, France and South Korea.  How good of a day was it for Team USA yesterday? A luge event was held, the Germans won just one medal and it wasnt Gold. All three American stars Lindsey Vonn, Shani Davis and Shaun White all lived up to their billing with dominant gold medal performances. Here’s hoping there’s a Red, White and Blue encore today.

Now, of course, the Germans falling behind in the gold count harms me. I will turn a profit on the two futures bets to win most golds as long as they do. My other play was Norway. Hey, they finally scratched gold in a cross country event yesterday, but they’re still four back of the top spot and virtually need to max out every possible chance they at Gold to get me that killer 12/1 pay day. I wish I could go back in time and place 4/1 bets on the Americans in both gold and overall medal chases. Oh well. On to today’s events.

VONN GOES FOR DOUBLE GOLD

If Lindsey Vonn were a football or basketball team, there is no way I would bet on her in her next event, which in this case is today in the women’s combined. It a double ski with a downhill this afternoon at 1:30 east and a slalom at 4. Fastest combined time wins. But enough of fancy pants rules, why come you hate on golden girl and say she wont win today? Well, I didnt say she wouldn’t win, just that under normal circumstances she wouldnt be somebody I would bet on today. We talk all the time about football and basketball teams suffering letdowns the next time out after emotional, grueling bigtime wins the game before. It happens all the time. Dont you have to consider Vonn to be in the same boat? And I’m knocking the emotion she showed. Frankly, its what I like about sports and especially the Olympics. But you have to wonder if the edge needed to win an Olympic event will be there today without any real time to come down from the downhill high.  To be sure, she’ll refocus, but today would be a day she’d letdown and I wouldnt think any less of her, just like the Saints did after their first loss of the season. They, of course, rebounded and eventually won big. Vonn could still do the same.

Of course, this is the Olympics and maybe she’s riding some destiny. If so, its because of her skill and she aint too shabby in this event. She’s medaled nine times in this event during her world cup career. She had the world championship in her grasp a year ago until she whiffed on one of the final slalom gates. She won this event during the opening meet of the season. The question is can she collect herself and ski her ass off again in the downhill. If she can build a lead like her margin of victory yesterday, she could be double golden. Another thing in her favor is the status of the other top skiers. Marie Reisch skiied terribly yesterday, can she rebound? Ange Parsons had a terrible fall at the bottom of the slope, where is her ming at? For some reason, I cant find any odds on this even anywhere on line, except at pinnacle, which doesnt take American customers and only has head-to-head matchups on the board, not race futures. Read more »