NFL

NFL Week 16: Forward Down The Field, A Year Old Prediction About To Come True

December 24, 2011
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It was 363 days ago that the JCB made a bold prediction about this year’s NFL season. Today, we might be hours away from seeing that call come to complete fruition.  It was the day after Christmas a year ago when we predicted the woebegone Detroit Lions would make the playoffs in 2011. The bold call came near the end of a 2010 when the Lions were not only the best team ATS in the NFL, but a consistent week in, week out moneymaker for this blog. In fact, we won a big 2-unit play on Detroit that very same day when they travelled down to Miami and won outright as an underdog.  Fast forward to today. Should the Lions win at home against San Diego, they will clinch their first playoff appearance since 1999 and put the cherry on top of our year-old postseason projection for them this year. So, we’re a little excited today.

The Lions continue to make money for the blog, although to be truthful most of that profit was made during the season’s first five weeks. Nevertheless when combining sides, 2nd half lines and involvement in 2-team teasers, the JCB is 8-3-1 ATS dancing with the Honolulu Blue this season. We picked up a great 3-unit score on their comeback win against Dallas. However, we lost a 3-unit teaser when the Bears woodshedded them in Week 10. Otherwise its been more cha-ching the bleeding. Since their 5-0 start, during which we won on them every week, we’ve only gone 3-3 taking a chance on the Lions. The losses were that fateful Week 10 teaser with the Bears, against the Packers as +7 on Thanksgiving and their first loss of the season against San Fran in Week 6. The winners were last week on the cheap moneyline against the Raiders, their destruction of Tebow and Denver in Week 8 and a second half play against Carolina in Week 11. Add it all up, however, and its +7.6 Units betting the Lions this year. Not to mention a 3-Unit winner on the Over 8.5 regular season wins. Two years in a row, the Lions have been a vital profit cog for the blog, clearing well over 20 units for the blog since the beginning of the 2010 campaign. And, now, they stand a single win away from coming through on our playoff prediction from a year ago. Needless to say, we’re proud right now. Maybe it does come before the fall, but we dont care. We’re not sitting this one out.


 

Lions -1 over San Diego x 2….Forward Down The Field, Boys! A win puts them in the playoffs for the first time since 1999. I’ve lived under more than a half dozen roofs since then. Everybody is talking about another Charger late season run powered by Philip Rivers. But, Matt Stafford has been on fire, this crowd at Ford Field today will be off the hook and any chance I can bet against Norv Turner, I’ll take it.

And, of course, some 1:00 kicks to keep us occupied until then Read more »

Rad Super Bowl Props

February 5, 2011
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Super Bowl XLV- What Color will the Gatorade be that is dumped on the Head Coach of the Winning Team:

  • Blue 12/1
  • Clear/White 3/2
  • Lime Green 11/2
  • Orange 5/1
  • Red 12/1
  • Yellow 5/6

Now here’s a fun one.  I’m ASSuming they get all kinds of choices for the Super Bowl but what is the favorite of either team?  Both teams have yellow in their uniforms, I’m assuming that’s why Yellow is the favorite.  But it’s about taste, not color.  Yellow taste like ass if it’s mixed poorly or gets warm.  Lime Green?  Seriously?  I didn’t know it was an option.  Red?  No one wants to make the coach look like he’s wearing a pink shirt.  White seems plausible, i.e. ICE WATER! But how would we know?  I have always been a big fan of the Orange Gatorade made in mass quantities.  When I played football terribly in high school that was the only flavor we got.  Why?  No idea.  But I’m goin with Orange.  Pays 5/1.  Book $5 to win $25.

How long will it take Christina Aguilera to sin the Star Spangled Banner (starting note to final note)

  • Over / Under 1 Minute and 54 Seconds   (-240)

Aguilera is a newly divorced mom with a career that’s been on standby.  This is her chance to bounce back and earn 50 billion more dollars from idiots.  How else would she do that without over-singing this one?   Let’s look at other times for the Star Spangled Banner. Read more »

NFL Championship Weekend — With Picks!

January 22, 2011
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So after a 3-1 start, we went 2-2 over divisional weekend. I think there should be extra credit for covering Pack and Jets by a ton and missing the other two so narrowly, but apparently that’s not how it works. Undeterred, let’s move to the teams bidding for the Super Bowl.

Packers at Bears, 3:00 et FOX, Latest Line: Packers -3.5. O NOES, another road favorite! This will be the first postseason meeting between these two rivals since December 14, 1941. That’s amazing. It seems like the Lions and Packers met every other year in the playoffs in the 90s, yet these two highly successful franchises haven’t squared off since the week Pearl Harbor was bombed (stupid Germans). Naturally, the teams split their series this year with the Bears winning 20-17 at Soldier Field and the Pack taking a 10-3 win in Week 17 to clinch a playoff berth.

It’s hard to look at either game and draw significant meaning for this one. In the first meeting, the Packers committed a franchise record 18 penalties, two of which wiped out crucial interceptions, and still almost stole the game. In Week 17, the Bears were pretty secure in their playoff situation and the Packers were fighting for another week of games. The Packers are riding Aaron Rodgers now, coming off an amazing performance against Atlanta to get here. The conditions will certainly be different in Chicago than they were in the dome last week, with temps around 20 degrees. Rodgers is 4-2 against Chicago in his career. Jay Cutler will need to take care of the football and put Julius Peppers and the defense in position to get this win. Last week against Seattle, Cutler narrowly avoided a crippling interception when on first and goal he dropped one right in a defender’s lap and it was dropped. The mistake seemed to calm Cutler down and the Bears dismantled the Seahawks for the next three quarters. Look for Rodgers to target James Jones and Jordy Nelson again this week as the secondary receivers made a huge difference against Atlanta. For the Bears, Matt Forte will see a lot of the ball, but can the Bears protect Cutler against Clay Mathrews and Charles Woodson coming off the edge? Can’t wait to find out, this one should be great. Even though I think the Packers will move on, I’m going with the home team getting the points in what I think will be a close one. Pick: Bears +3.5.

NY Jets at Pittsburgh, 6:30 et CBS, Latest Line: Pittsburgh -3.5. Another excellent game to cap the weekend. Who is it personal for Rex Ryan against this time? Whether he can think of something or not, this will be another hard-hitting match-up where points will be at a premium if the teams take care of the ball. It’s going to be even colder in Pittsburgh than in Chicago, with a possibility of snow for good measure. The Jets come in as the sixth seed, looking to become only the second such team to win a Super Bowl. The other? The 2005 Steelers. That brings me to a big point in this one: experience. Ben Roethlisberger has been here so many times and gives the Steelers a distinct advantage under center. Not that Mark Sanchez is a slouch; last week against New England he made some great throws, including a beatiful score to ex-Steeler Santonio Holmes.

I don’t think it’s a wild prediction to forecast a tough time for the Jets offense against a Steeler defense that allowed around 60 rushing yards per game during the regular season and couples that with two of the leagues best edge rushers in James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley. The interesting aspect will be Ben and the Steelers trying to crack Darrelle Revis, David Harris, and the Jets defense. When these teams met in Week 15, the Jets sacked Roethlisberger three times and hurried him persistently. After the Steelers gave up six sacks last week against Baltimore, that doesn’t bode well. The Jets won that Week 15 bout 22-17, with 12 straight points to close out the game.

The defenses are going to make plays in this one, take that to the bank. I think we’re going to be treated to a great game here and the winner will be very thankful for the extra week off before the Super Bowl. It would be truly amazing if the Jets were able to go through Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Ben Roethlisberger on the road to make it to Dallas. However, I think the experience for Pittsburgh will be too much and I’m wary of an emotional letdown for the Jets. Pick: Steelers -3.5.

NFL Divisional Weekend — With Picks!

January 14, 2011
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Not too bad last week, as the picks went 3-1, including a big win on the Seahawks. The law of averages would tell you to disregard this post, but that law is a LIAR. The NFL Playoffs are great because you get the same amount of games in the second week as the first, but they’re typically much better. Let’s get to the games.

Ravens at Steelers, 4:30 et CBS, Latest Line: Steelers -3. I’m not sure there is a better way to start the weekend. I’m getting fired up just trying to write about it. It’s going to be cold, there are going to be vicious hits, and everything will have to be earned. It’s amazing how similar these teams are, especially on defense. Both have outstanding pass rushers, consistent run stoppers, and play-making safeties. Even offensively, each has a powerful running back, a tandem of big play/possession receivers, and large big-armed QBs. Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisberger will be the difference in the game. Which guy can limit the mistakes, take what they’re given, and set the team up for scores. Why will the QBs be so important? Neither team has allowed a 100-yard rusher in a combined 28 playoff games. Field goal kicking will be huge as well, in a game where the first team to 20 will have an overwhelming chance to win. How close have these two teams played it? In their 17 meetings since 2003, the Ravens have 302 points and so do the Steelers. In a game that I think will be decided by three points, the underdog is the safe bet. Pick: Ravens +3.

Packers at Falcons, 8:00 et, FOX, Latest Line: Atlanta -2.5. I can’t help but thinking this turns into something like the Packers-Cardinals game from last year. Both teams are decent defensively, but these quarterbacks can put points on the board in a hurry. Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers are going to get their numbers. The Falcons’ big advantage comes in the running game featuring Michael Turner. Turner finished third in the league in rushing yards and will get the ball at least 20 times Saturday. Conversely, the Packers run game has struggled this year after losing Ryan Grant in Week 1. Last week, they got a boost from rookie James Starks who rushed for 123 yards in the win against Philly. This should be another great game, but I like the Packers because of their defensive difference makers in Charles Woodson and Clay Matthews. Pick: Packers +2.5.

Seahawks at Bears, 1:00 et FOX, Latest Line: Bears -10. Either the Seahawks or the Bears will play in the NFC Championship Game. For real. First, thank you to the Seahawks who covered my prediction last week and then some; however, you didn’t need to be so mean to Mr. Jamie Mac. He’s a sweet man, after all. Another intriguing quarterback match-up with Matt Hasselbeck coming off a great performance and Jay Cutler is just as likely to throw four touchdowns as he is four picks. Cutler spent a lot of time on his back in Week 6 when the Seahawks came into Soldier Field and beat the Bears 23-20. The Bears have since incorporated Matt Forte in the attack more and the running game produced over 100 yards in nine of the last ten games. At home getting ten points I loved Seattle last week and even on the road, I think they can keep it within two scores against the Bears. Pick: Seattle +10.

Jets at Patriots, 4:30 et CBS, Latest Line: NE -8.5. Bill Belichek is the latest in the line of those with whom Rex Ryan has claimed “it’s personal.” Jets-Pats is much bigger than Rex Ryan though, as hard as that seems. The all-time series is tied at 51-51-1. Tom Brady torched the Jets in their last meeting and will have all the right to talk to Antonio Cromartie if he does it again. Will Brady target Cromartie or take his chances with Darrelle Revis on the other side? It hasn’t mattered much how the Pats get it done lately as they have been slaying all comers, winning eight straight by an average margin of over 20 points.  A key for the Jets will be to sustain drives and play keep-away from Brady and the offense. Mark Sanchez will need to continue is methodical form from the Indy upset and LaDanian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene should expect a lot of work. Thankfully, all the talking is over and once again we have a great game to close the weekend. If the line moves inside of a touchdown, I would take New England here, but 8.5 is too much so I’ll make an all road underdog weekend. Pick: Jets +8.5.

NFL Wild Card Weekend — With Picks!

January 7, 2011
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What a weekend coming up in the NFL. You have both defending conference champs in action, plus two teams considered good bets to get to the Super Bowl in the Packers and Eagles. Moreover, the Jets–who consider themselves the favorites to win it all–get their shot at Peyton and the Colts, and the Ravens might just be the team with the best shot of knocking the Pats out down the road. Sounds like a fun weekend to lay some money down.

Saints at Seahawks, 4:30 NBC, Latest Line: NO -10.  The defending champs are heavy favorites here and rightly so.Drew Brees and the Saints offense have been extremely efficient again this year and other than their clinching win over St. Louis, the Seahawks faceplanted their way into the playoffs. The teams met once this season in New Orleans and the Saints came away with a 34-19 win. However, many factors are leading me to go with the home underdog in this one. First, Matt Hasselbeck will be under center for Seattle and he performs well against the Saints typically. His 366 yards in their meeting this year was a season high. Hasselbeck has also won his last four home postseason starts, while the Saints are 0-3 on the road in the playoffs all-time. Qwest Field isn’t the place to easily break those streaks. Add to all this that Chirs Ivory and Pierre Thomas have been sent to the IR and I like Seattle to be able to hang around here. Pick: Seattle +10.

Jets at Colts, 8:00 NBC, Latest Line: IND -2.5. The line here has dipped under a field goal, which is huge in what should be a very close contest.  We all remember the impressive upset bid the Jets mounted last year against Indy in the AFC Championship Game, now they’ll get their shot at finishing the job. If the Jets want to win, they’ll have to get pressure on Peyton Manning and force him into mistakes. Over half of Manning’s 17 interceptions this year have come at home and the Jets’ front four has really improved as of late, with 19 sacks in the last six weeks. On the other side of the ball, the Colts will have an easier time forcing Mark Sanchez into some errors if they can slow down the run game. LaDanian Tomlinson started hot this season, but fatigue seemed to catch up with him lately. A Week 17 rest might help, but I think the advantage goes to the home team here. I know Rex Ryan says it’s personal now that Manning has knocked him out of the playoffs so often, but Manning & Co. are usually better than the squads Ryan has been a part of. It will happen again Saturday night when the Colts win a close one. Pick: Colts -2.5.

Ravens at Chiefs, 1:00 CBS, Latest Line: Baltimore -3. This is the AFC’s version of Saints-Seahawks with a road favorite. Classic match-up of a potent offense against a stifling defense here, something the Ravens are pretty comfortable with in the playoffs. Can the Chiefs survive a 13-10 type game? KC certainly hasn’t been playing their best football recently, losing 31-10 against Oakland in Week 17, but they’re 7-1 at home this year. Other than home-field advantage, how can the Chiefs advance? Offensively, they feature the explosive Jamaal Charles and the NFL’s most underrated player of the last five years Thomas Jones. The running back tandem opens things up for Matt Cassel, who despite recent struggles threw for 27 scores this year and was only picked off seven times. Defensively, end Tamba Hali will look to exploit the banged up Michael Oher. Hali registered 14.5 sacks this year and the Ravens have struggled mightily to protect Joe Flacco. From their gigantic season opening win against San Diego, the Chiefs have looked like a team to fear. That’s not going to bother former stabby guy Ray Lewis and the Ravens though. With the news that Ed Reed is okay after sitting out the second half last week, look for the Ravens to win one with the total score under 30. Pick: Ravens -3.

Packers at Eagles, 4:30 FOX, Latest Line: Philly -3. Best game of the opening weekend will be the capper when Green Bay travels to Philly for the second time this season. In Week 1, the Pack survived a rally led by Mike Vick and escaped with a 27-20 win. While the Packers didn’t have a plan in place for Vick then, the Eagles clearly looked like the better team then once Vick entered the game. Remember, it was Vick who led the Falcons to the first playoff win at Lambeau years ago. This time around look for 2009 Defensive MVP Charles Woodson to help keep Vick in check. Woodson will be blitzing off the edge regularly, making for one hell of a showdown when he gets close to Vick. The Packers, losers of four straight road playoff games and holders of a 3-5 road record this season can take solace in the fact that the Eagles’ 4-4 home record is the worst of any playoff team this year. Still, Vick, DeSean Jackson, and LeSean McCoy lead the most explosive offense in the league. After a low scoring affair Sunday afternoon, the evening match-up should light up the scoreboard. I’ll take the road dogs here and predict that Aaron Rodgers gets his first playoff win. Pick: Packers +3.