College Basketball

A 7-Pack Of Basketball Picks

February 8, 2012
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When the night’s schedule includes three games between teams ranked in the top-11 of the country, then that means the JCB needs to dust off its handicapping cap and attempt to pick some games. Hey, we went 2-0 on Monday night, so there is some money to burn. And since one of our mottos is a gambler’s money knows no home, its only appropriate to let it ride.

Georgetown +9 over Syracuse…..yes, I realize Fab Melo is back, strengthening an already very tough Orange team to beat. But this is one of our proverbial put your money where your mouth is picks. We touted the Hoyas a week ago, wondering if they werent every bit as a good as the Orange in a one-off. I said, if you give me 7 points, then I will buy. So of course I’m in on the play catching the +9. Here’s why I like the Hoyas. The play fantastic defense, shoot the ball on offense, in Jason Clark and Hollis Thompson they have a pair of scorers who can and will shoot over the Orange’s zone and they’re every bit as deep as Syracuse. I worry that their bench crew is all freshmen, and they might shrink in the moment. But, thats something that would keep them from winning outright. I’ll take my chances with the 9-point head start.

UNC -6 over Duke ….I never get these games correct, so take that as the JCB’s caveat emptor. Besides, dont forget one of our other mottos is blindly following our plays can be hazardous to your wallet. Anyway, we’re laying what we consider to be a small amount of chalk–for basketball–in this classic game. UNC is the only team talented enough in the land to beat Kentucky. Does that mean anything in this game? No, not really. But, the contest is in Chapel Hill, the Heels seemed to have found an extra gear in recent outings and I feel they out talent these Dookies. I dont like Duke’s perimeter defense. I feel the Plumlees inside are overrated. Heels are a legit title contender. I dont feel Duke is much better than Sweet 16 material. In the Dean Dome, I expect a double digit Tar Heel win. Stat of note: The Heels are 9-3-1 ATS as chalk of less than 7 points. They’ve also been woodshedding people at home of late.

Michigan -3 over Nebraska….road chalk in the Big 10. Uh-oh. But you know how much we like John The Beezer Beilein in these parts. One spot we like him in the most is when his charges are coming off a loss. Michigan is on 36-17 ATS after a loss under The Beezer.  This year after a loss, he has his kids in total rebound beast mode. Following a defeat, Michigan is 6-0 SUATS this season with an average margin of victory just under 10 points per game.  Dating back to last year, Michigan has won and covered 11 straight times after a defeat. We’re not messing with this streak. They’re also 18-6 ATS in their last 24 Big 10 games. Wolverines bounce back and when this game by at least more than one possession.

Baylor -1 over Kansas……Am I square? Yes, I am. After all, I am circling and taking all three big games tonight. Dont judge me. I’ve got nothing else going on tonight. Yes, I know Baylor has all but never defeated KU, so expecting them to do so by wagering on them might not be a good idea. But, I’ll take a small chance on them tonight that home court advantage surges them to a win.

Rutgers -1 over Seton Hall ……Hall has been struggling. How much so? They got woodshedded by a UConn team that doesnt even play any offense. Winning in the RAC has actually become pretty difficult. I think that big effing ‘R’ at half court dazes the opposition. UConn, Notre Dame, Cincy and Florida have all lost here within the last two months. Yes, the lost at home to Depaul, but I’m ignoring that and not listening to you. RAC Magic gets another one and the Seton Hall losing streak keeps driving the Pirates towards the NIT. Or worse. Read more »

Bubble News: Resetting The Early February Bubble

February 8, 2012
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Lets reset the bubble before we get too deep into the week and in advance of a special night in the college hoops world. We’ll be back later to rap about the big games and make some picks. But, for now, let’s take a look at the ever developing NCAA Tournament Bubble.  As always the handy Bracket Matrix will serve as our guide.

CRASHING THE GATES

That would be the Miami Hurricanes, which went from a paltry 5 mock bracket votes prior to the weekend to a total of 24 during Monday’s straw vote. The subsequent update of the consensus Bracket Matrix saw the Canes parlay that surge in support all the way to a spot in the field on the 12-line. Thats a mighty big leap, but the Canes have won more than twice as many games as they have lost, have a winning league mark in a power conference and,  just 24 hours before the latest vote, they pulled off what typically is one of the marquee wins of any college basketball season by winning at Cameron Indoor against Duke. I cant lie. I didnt watch a second of this game. Frankly, I was unaware of the proceedings completely as this game got lost in the Super Bowl Shuffle on Sunday. But the Canes suddenly require us all to take notice. The bubble is so fluid, so soft and so weak this early in the process that all it takes is one major win and you’re the bracketologists’ best friend. Miami proves that adage, but are they any good? They have four double digit scorers paced by a solid backcourt of Durand Scott and Malcolm Grant an offense that nearly cracks the top-10 percent nationally per KenPom’s efficiency rankings. They’re a decent to good three point shooting team and rarely turn the ball over. They go 10 deep and can play with a lot of size with the 6/10 Kenny Kadji and 6/11 Reggie Johnson ranking 3rd and 4rth in minutes played. They’ve played a challenging schedule for Miami, but have lost pretty much all their possible resume games. Before their upset at Duke, they were 0-6 against teams currently in the Bracket Matrix. We’ll see if they have any staying power. They host Virginia Tech on Thursday in a game they must win as their next two after that are at Florida State and back home vs North Carolina. If they can win two out of their next three, look for their bracket support to solidify. But they’re sitting at 5-3 in the ACC at the league season’s midpoint. If they finish in the barn with a winning conference mark, look for the Canes to become a major talking point come conference tournament week.

WELCOME BACK, PITT

I think we need to remove some of the dirt we shoveled over the Pitt grave during the month of January. And, in all liklihood, shift some of that soil to a freshly minted plot being dug for UConn, but thats a whole different post. Getting back to Pitt, the Panthers arent really making a dent in any brackets yet, although they do appear on 3 out of the 58 mocks tallied at the Bracket Matrix, as a 13th seed in two of them and a 12th seed in the other. Why give the Panthers some love? Lets let one of those bracketologists explain. From Big Underdog, who places Pitt on the 13-seed line:

Pittsburgh is probably the toughest team in the country to seed. They started out 0-7 in the Big East, but then star point guard Tray Woodall returned from injury and Pitt has beat WVU & Georgetown in the past week. With Woodall in the lineup the Panthers are 9-2 and a tournament team.

The Panthers are riding a 4-game winning streak right now, half way to making up for an 8-game slide that had their bid chances DOA in January. The current winning ways include resume wins over Georgetown and West Virginia. Getting Woddall back in the lineup has indeed been the difference. They still have work to do just to get to level par in Big East (they stand at 4-7), but they have the team, heart and schedule to be able to do it. I fully expect this rally to continue, and the Panthers to gobble up an at large bid before its all said and done. At the very least, when they play UConn in the regular season finale, they’ll have a better chance at a bid than the Huskies. The Huskies remain on everyone’s bracket and the Matrix has them as an 8-seed. But those updates took place before the Huskies decided to try a play another game without any offense Monday night and were worked over by Louisville. Their trip to Syracuse on Saturday looks like a guaranteed loss. If they look as badly then as they did last night, it’s going to be interesting to see how much support flees their corner. BracketWag thinks the Huskies can still cobble together a bid if they finish 8-10 in Big East play. They might, but not if they go one-and-done in the Big East Tournament. Regardless, thats a position I wouldnt want my team in come Selection Sunday. Read more »

Bubble News: Can Texas Bag A Winnable Road Game?

February 6, 2012
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Football is finished. Congrats to the Giants, anyone who had an Eli For MVP prop bet and, of course, those who had Giants Safety as the game’s first score. I assume folks who had that latter ticket are taking off of work today. Now, let Basketball take over. In fact, with the unseasonably warm winter we’ve been having, it already feels like March outside. We have a month to go in the college regular season, so bubble talk will take over most of the water cooler discussions around this here blog. I’ll reset the general landscape later in the wake of another weekend of hoops in the books, but first let’s quickly set the table for tonight’s storyline.

Like a week ago, the Texas Longhorns hog all the bubble stage on a Monday night. On a light night for college hoops they face something akin to a must win. The Horns went 1-1 this past week. They’re pretty much running in place right now, which isnt that great considering teams all around them are pulling in marquee wins on a daily basis this time of year. They began the week losing at home to Missouri, failing again against a league power and dropping to 0-4 against the Big 12′s power trio of Missou, Baylor and Kansas.  It was another close game, but it was also another loss as Texas dropped to 0-7 in games decided by 6 points or less. They beat last place Texas Tech in Austin on Saturday. Within the mock bracketology crowd, it might be safe to say their support, slim as it was, waned a bit after those results. A week ago, they were on 19 ballots. Heading into the weekend, that support had fallen to just 14 mock ballots and they were the fourth from last team cut from the comprehensive Bracket Matrix. I doubt a win over the hapless Red Raiders will net a surge in support as the mock crowds updates during the course of the day to account for the weekend.  With five weeks until Selection Sunday, the Horns are on the outside looking in, and their 13-year NCAA Tournament streak is in serious jeopardy.

When they go into College Station tonight for their Big Monday match with the rival Aggies, the Longhorns arent playing with House money. They dont need just resume wins, but they need wins of any kind. If they cant beat any of the league’s super powers, then they need to make up for the fact by gobbling up as many winnable road games, like tonight, as possible. They’re two games below .500 in Big 12 play at 4-6. They need to get to .500 in league play at the end of the regular season. Tonight is a major swing game in that pursuit. They have to go on the road tonight and put away a vulnerable, struggling A/M outfit. If they dont, it would hang a bad loss on the Horns resume and drop them three below the level mark in league play.

Here’s a rundown of the Horns slate the rest of the way after tonight: KSU, at Oklahoma, at Okie State, Baylor, at Texas Tech, Oklahoma, at Kansas.

Only seven games remain after tonight. The math isnt difficult. Win tonight and the goal of .500 in league play is more than attainable. Lose tonight, and that goal becomes a struggle the rest of the way. It would require upsetting the type of team they havent proven they can beat yet. Or pefection against the rest of the slate. I think the Horns can make the field with a .500 league mark, even if they dont win a game against the Missou-KU-Baylor trio. I dont think they can go winless against that crew and finish sub .500 in league play and still make the NCAAs. Frankly, they cant finish sub .500 in Big 12 play period.

The result tonight will let us know what kind of candidacy the Horns have. A win means they can slowly and steadily take care of business the rest of the way and get a bid in the end. A loss means they need to tear it up the final weeks and win at least five out of the last seven  to make a legit case. We said it last week, and the song remains the same, unless the Horns do catch fire down the stretch, and, especially if they lose tonight, they might need to knock off one of those Big 12 power brokers in the league tournament in order to crash the field. Read more »

Bubble News: Super Bowl Saturday Edition

February 3, 2012
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Will the Super Bowl ever move to Saturday? It should. If people are going to start considering it as a holiday and party event, lets move it so we’re not all ass dragging into work Monday morning. But, with the Big Game still on Sunday, however, we’ll have an unobstructed view of a full college basketball schedule. And, we’re getting into the most important time of the year. March is less than four weeks away. Selection Sunday is in 38 days. It’s a little bit of a paradox. There is both plenty of time to build a resume, yet with the days running out, the urgency is prime to take care of a resume win when its staring you down. Tomorrow there is action everywhere that will impact the current Bubble standing. I’ve highlighted seven games that most likely will cause a shuffle during the next bracketologist straw poll. It includes three head to head games between some of the final at large teams seeded on the current Bracket Matrix. As for picks, well lines arent out yet for any games tomorrow. But, hey, we bagged wins on Georgetown and Valparaiso the last two nights. As you know, we dont allow winnings to sit around doing nothing. We’ll have picks tomorrow.

Seton Hall at UConn, noon, ESPN 3/ESPN Full Court……Its the Freefall Invitational. Both these Big East clubs are in a tailspin, on losing streaks threatening to put their seemingly safe NCAA bid on ice. The Huskies come in on a 4-game skid, while the Pirates have done them one worse on their own 5-game slide. According to the Bracket Matrix, this is a battle of the consensus 8th seed Huskies vs 10th seed Pirates. The loser might not be pushed out completely, but there’s precious room left to fall down the pecking order without landing in NIT Projections. So the winner steadies themselves a bit, but the loser is going to be a world of hurt. Neither schedule eases up immediately after. The Huskies, for example, play at Louisville and at Syracuse in their next two games. A loss to the Pirates could just be another wrung on what could be as much as a 7-game losing streak. Can the defending champs be facing a must win game on the first Saturday of February? I think so. Regardless, they’re going back to the drawing board in hopes to save their season.

Xavier-Memphis, 1:00, Fox Sports Ohio……Like the game above, this contest pits a pair of the final at large teams on the Bracket Matrix when the 10-seed Memphis Tigers host 12-seed Xavier. Memphis is trying to rebound after losing to Southern Miss earlier in the week in a showdown for first place in Conference USA. I caught that game and was impressed enough with both squads that I cant believe we’ll find 38 better at large candidates in a month’s time. But this league is goofy. Its not deep enough to get more than those two bids, but its competitive enough top to bottom that going on the road is as dangerous as any major league. Two years ago, Memphis went 13-3 in the league, but lost in the first round of the CUSA sectional and was relegated to the NIT. A year ago, they were just 10-6 in league play, but streaked to the tournament championship to net the automatic NCAA bid. This year, they appear to be in between those two clubs. They cant afford to many more losses, however, they have a chance for a nice bubble win in this February non-conference game with Xavier. The Musketeers have the talent and game to be safe in the field, but have been slumping for nearly two months since that brawl against Cincinnati. The loser of this game likely falls out of most mock brackets during the next update and will be scrambling to impress the rest of the way.

Maquette-Notre Dame, 1:00, CBS………Notre Dame has put together quite a little run here in the middle of winter. They’ve beaten Syracuse and won at Seton Hall and UConn on this three game inning streak that have them in the top-4 of the Big East standings. They have a chance to puncuate this streak with another big win when they host Marquette. That 6-3 Big East record is sparkly and its hard to imagine a conference club losing out on a bid with a winning mark in this league. I think Notre Dame is a safe bet to make the NCAAs right now. This, despite only being a consensus 12 seed on the Bracket Matrix and only 13 of 61 total voters placing them on the 10-line or better. They’re walking right on the edge, but they have a manageable enough slate where they could overcome a home loss to Marquette, a projected 3-seed. If they can notch this win, the Irish will have a ton of breathing room. I’d expect them to be a sinlge digit seed on most everybody’s next bracket. From there, only a total collapse with a series of bad losses would knock them out.

Arkansas at LSU, 1:45, ESPN 3/ESPN Full Court.…..Ladies and Gents, meet the final team to make the consensus Bracket Matrix, the Arkansas Razorbacks. The Hogs are listed on 25 of 61 brackets, the smallest amount of any at large in the consensus. They sit on the 12-seed line. The simple road map to an at large bid when you’re trying to charge from the back of the bubble rail has not changed: Win your marquee home games, add in enough winnable road games, then profit in the NCAAs. Arkansas filled the first half of that equation with an 8-point home win over Vanderbilt earlier in the week. Now, its bag a winnable road game time. A loss to the Tigers wouldnt be a death knell of any kind, but it would keep the Hogs running in place at best with the mock bracketology crowd. Thats not the best position to be in when you’re barely on a third of the mock brackets to begin with. Read more »

Thursday Hoop Thoughts: Georgetown, Murray State and BYU’s Bubble Stakes

February 2, 2012
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We’re going to pick up the daily posting again after taking most of January off to recharge and recalibrate our minds from obsessive college football fandom to obsessive college basketball and bubble tracking. We’ve been trying to catch as much hoops as possible lately and now its time to start commenting on it like any ESPN expert would. In LOUD VOICES AND CAPS while pretending we know it all. Hell, I was born for this.

I’m not clear on what our format is going to be. Expect a couple Bubble centric posts a week in addition to general hoop columns and a strategic game preview or two. And, there is also Chitownblue lurking in the JCB Strategic Engagement And Creative Room, where he’ll continue to pump out NBA and Big 10 focused basketball pieces. Once he’s done ridding our kitchen of mayonaisse. By the time we figure out a format, it will March. At that point, there is no format. Just chaos–in a good way–and a Gatlin Gun barrage of posting as we go from league tournaments to the Big One.

Bottomline? Thanks for sticking with us during our ‘sabbatical’ of sorts. Enjoy the rest of the hoops season and if you’ve got an idea or thought for us, dont hesitate to hit us up on the JCB Twitter feed or drop us a line at Jamie@JustCoverBlog.com. With that out of the way, lets talk hoops:

 Is Syracuse the best team in the country Big East?

Are we sure Syracuse is hands down the best team in the Big East, let alone the country? I’m not. Not because I think the Orange are overrated, but I feel its because Georgetown seems to be so underrated right now. In a one-off for the Big East title, I think this is a toss-up. The Hoyas methodically throttled a struggling UConn team last night and after a series of disappointing Marches, look to be a factor next month in both the Big East and NCAA Tournaments. They play active defense, holding foes to 43.5 EFG%, 14th best in the land, and have KenPom’s 10th most efficient defense. Three point shooting is closed when you’re playing the Hoyas. They force steals on the perimeter and block a fair share of shots. In Jason Clark and Hollis Thompson, they have two versatile and good shooting scorers. They go 9-deep, bringing in a crop of four freshmen off the bench, highlighted by Otto Porter, perhaps the next, great Big East star. When this group of freshmen are shooting the ball well, this is a darn near impossible team to beat. They have a lot of effective size, get really good guard play and most importantly are oozing with talent. Everybody that sees legit minutes was at least a 4-star recruit per Rivals. If only they can overcome recent March demons. But, we’re still in February and the Hoyas stand two games behind the Orange. Their one and only regular season meeting of the season is next Wednesday in the Carrier Dome. KenPom only gives the Hoyas a 22-percent chance of winning, calling instead for a 7-point loss. I like their chances better than the tempo free guru. If you give me +7, for example, I am buying. On the same night, Duke/UNC and Kansas/Baylor face each other, but this vintage Big East rivalry is the main game I want to watch. I feel the Hoyas are better. Hopefully we’ll get a rematch next month at Madison Square Garden in the Big East Tournament.

Murray State Eventual Tournament Seed: Over/Under 4.5 Read more »