Its probably going to be an uneven and incomplete summer posting college football previews. I’m not sure where to start. So right off the bat, I’m just going to riff and rail against whats becoming a defining meme in the Big 10 hoods of blogrifca that I travel. I’m looking to take down this meme, even if I dont have any fancy charts or a witches brew of performance variables spitting out a final number.
The Northwestern Wildcats were the luckiest football team in college football in 2009. And it wasnt even close. The irrepresible Mathlete at MGoBlog created his own luck formula and the results showed Northwestern’s luck far outpaced everyone else. Like stacked deck luck. Last year alone their good fortune was good enough for more than a 2-game swing in the standings in their favor. Going by his final numbers, he submits that at no point did Northwestern ever produce at their eventual 8-win level, claiming it was a stretch the Cats were even bowl eligible. He added it was the second year in a row that the Wildcats took this honor, putting a new math asterik next to the Wildcats accomplishments the last two seasons. Those achievements include a pair of bowl bids, a New Year’s Day appearance, 17 wins overall and a 10-6 Big 10 mark. Thats a whole lot of luck.
Of course people are eating this up. For one reason, we’re all fascinated with new stats, and I am no exception. As a college football fan, we have little action to watch and during the long off season its really cool seeing different ways of interpretating the action we do see. It feeds a craving. However, this particular meme gains a strong root because it not only helps explain something that doesnt make sense, but it also feeds into our preconceived notions of the college football pecking order. Northwestern isnt supposed to win football games. Northwestern is supposed to be bad. A non-competitive cellar dwellar. No talented players go there to play football. How have they had back to back winning years in the Big 10? Oh, wait, you say they’ve been the luckiest team in football during that time? Oh well, now it makes sense. You see, I guess Northwestern cant win on their merits as an actual good football team with good football players. No siree. Not against the traditional and nouveau wannabe powers of the Big 10. It’s all luck. This cherrypicked, gerrymandered formula proves it.
It’s a load of crap. I might not have pulled out my chalkboard and calculator to numerically disprove the luck factor. But, I’ll tell you this. Do not be duped into taking an under bet on total team wins based on this flukey formula alleging surprise group sex with a harem of Lady Luck. For example, if you’re staring at O/U 7.5 wins, dont fall back on the words that the Wildcats saw a two game swing in luck in their favor en route to eight wins. Dont book it and assume less wins because you cant run on luck alone. Dont use this conclusion and make a sucker play against the Cats. They’re headed for another 8-9 win season and another high end bowl destination, allegations of solely smoke and mirror aside. Read more »
