MLB

Opening Day: 2011 Baseball Futures

March 31, 2011
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We cant let Opening Day go by without sharing our future picks for the 2011 season. After going 4-0 in 2009, we stumbled to 2-2 a year ago. Thanks again, you choking dog Colorado Rockies whose 1-9 final ten games left us a single win shy of winning their over bet. But we’re not here to talk about past, let’s move forward, hope springs eternal and here’s who we are cheering for this year.

Phillies Under 96.5 wins….I guess this means we’re cheering for the rest of the National League. Nobody has more respect for the Fighting Phils than I. And, let’s not forget them taking the division crown a year ago was one of our future winners. But, man 97 wins is a lot. It’s a mark thats not hit that often by anyone,  and one the Phils have only hit once during their four-year reign atop the NL East.  They come into the season with a lot of health issues. They could have dominant starting pitching. But with Baseball Prospectus calling for just 89 wins, I’m taking a flier that the Vegas win total is inflated by public opinion thanks to said pitching staff. Look for the Phils to win another division but fall a handul of wins shy of the 97 mark.

Tampa Bay Over 84……Yes, I know they lost some stars. But there are plenty left over. Would anyone be surprised if Evan Longoria competed for the MVP while David Price makes a run at a Cy Young? I wouldnt, and the Rays will be threatening another 90-win season in the process. Regardless, there is more than enough for this team to still finish in third place in the strong AL East and be, performance wise, a top-5 team in the AL. I think this number might be a few results too low because the public thinks the cute Rays will fade because a couple of their key guys bolted. I dont know about that. I think we’ll be talking about the Rays the way we talk about the Twins, wondering how they keep putting up good seasons despite losing guys all the time.  Besides, I am currently reading  The Extra Two Percent, the story on how the Rays built themselves into a contender. If thats not a sign to play on the Rays, then I dont know what is.  I expect the Rays to be a strong contender for the Wild Card out of the AL and usually those teams score in the high-80s as far as wins go. This play could really use a bounceback year from James Shields, so we’re thinking good things about him in the lead up to his first start of the year.

San Diego Padres Over 75.5 wins……The Padres out paced everybody’s expectations a year ago with a 90-win season and nearly winning the NL West Pennant. They said goodbye to their best hitter Adrian Gonzalez in the off season, but is his absences really going to cost 15 wins and make the Padres a 75-win team? I dont think so. The Fathers have the best bullpen and defense in the NL and they still have a starting rotation you can win games and stay in contention with. I think they’re a good bet to have another winning record, let alone get to the 76 wins needed to win this over. As a Michigan fan, I have to place a bet on a team with former Wolverine Clayton Richards in their rotation, right? Exactly. Go Padres!

Ichiro Over 197.5 hits…..He’s never hit less than 200 before in his major league career. He doesnt appear hurt or appear to be slowing down as a hit machine. Maybe this is too good to be true, I dont know. He might not have the best fantasy value as he once did because nobody on the M’s knows how to drive him home for runs, but I dont think he needs any of those guys to put a 200-hit season together in his sleep. He legged out a career high 53 infield hits a year ago, so there is a concern that he’ll fall off there. But, even a one-third dropoff on production on that front would still get us the over as long as Ichiro keeps on smacking out base hits into the outfield the way he’s been ever since he arrived on the scene.

Adam Dunn Over 35.5 home runs…..He hasnt hit less than 38 in the last seven seasons. And now that he’s playing on a good team, in the AL, and in a quality hitter’s park in Sox Park on the south side, I have a sneaky suspicion we’re going to see a 40-plus home runs season out of him. Read more »

Take Me Out To The Ballgame: Bookin’ Baseball Future Bets

April 5, 2010
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Last year, I broke new ground and placed my first ever future bets of any kind for a single season when I took some win totals for the 2009 baseball campaign. When I was tinkering with what amounted to the JustCoverBlog 0.5, I wrote a blog post about it. I would blog randomly throughout the summer on the ups and downs of the endeavor. That was part of the plan for the fledgling blog. Well, that aspect didnt carry over when the JCB debuted in wordpress in the summer. But, the picks did endure. Fortune shined on me all season, and I won all four. I dont really gamble on baseball. It’s not that fun. But after last year’s success, I feel the pull to put something down on some baseball futures to at least give me an active stake in the season. I dont really consider myself a fan of any baseball team, so this will also give me something to follow and root for until the 2010 football season becomes a reality. At times, we’ll be dressed up as blogs for these teams as we chronicle the progress of these investments. We know we’ll have fun tracking these. We hope we’re as lucky as last year. Let’s Play Ball!

COLORADO OVER 85 WINS

I keep hearing about how great Colorado is going to be. Some have said they have the deepest team in the National League. Its hype that I buy. They are young, talented and can beat you in many different ways. With playoff appearances in two out of the last three years, they know how to win. I think its a 90-win ballclub, and they wont need a major break through to get that done. Everybody seems to be picking them, both pundits and the gamblers. They are the chic pick this spring, but they still are not betting chalk to win the division. You can still get 2.25 to 1 on them at sportsbook, while the Dodgers remain the favorite per their board at 1.5 to 1. 

 I happen to agree with the Rockies love. And I’m excited to see them play. But, I feel they have a better shot at achieving at least 85 wins than they do winning the NL West. I feel this division could easily have a pair of 90-game winners. The Rockies, Dodgers and Giants would all be in my top-half of the NL if I were the sort to concoct power ratings. I’d put Arizona up there as well if you can guarantee me a healthy Brandon Webb who will bounce back as strongly as, for example, Chris Carpenter did a year ago. I do think the Rockies are the best of the NL West bunch, but so many things can happen to keep this team from winning this division. Unlike them getting beyond the 85-win mark, winning the division would be a franchise break through. I dont know if I want to bet with certainty that that will happen. But, this team wont languish near .500. They have too much talent. They’ll cruise by the 85 win mark before summer ends. But, the NL West race wont be over by then. They wont win any NL West bet I would make if they dont go over 85 wins, anyway. This Over 84.5 is the easier bet to win, so I’ll take it.

Besides, I want a reason to watch and root for the Rockies. I always had a fantasy baseball rule of always making sure to pick a Rockie and get in early on whoever is suddenly going to be getting a lot of at-bats in their lineup. I did so because its fun to have an invested reason in staying up late on any given night in the summer to pull for something good to happen with the always potent Rockie offense. I loved the thrill of seeing a 10-7 final score, knowing that a guy on my fantasy team probably had fingerprints all over one of those rallies. Over the years, I have had some fun runs with Todd Helton, Garret Atkinson, Brad Hawpe and Matt Holliday. In recent seasons, I have also seeked out their pitchers. Ubaldo Jimeniz anchored my club last year that adanced into my league’s Final Four. Well, I am officially retired from fantasy baseball. Or at least taking a one year break. I know I will miss the thrill of tuning into a Rockies game for those implications. So, I am doing the next best thing. I’m investing in their season. Given this is the best the franchise has ever looked, its the right timing. I think they pass this win mark before the first Sunday of the NFL season. I cant wait for 2010 Rockie baseball. I wont even let the fact that four Colorado pitchers begin the season on the DL  get me down today. But, I will point out its reasons like that that I feel this win investment is a safer one, even if it doesnt pay out as much, as any of them taking the NL West pennant. Read more »

Estimated Prophets Plays Day Baseball (UPDATED)

July 25, 2009
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(ED NOTE: UPDATED at 6:30 pm)

The Tigers are killing me. Jackson pitched well, but had one bad inning and gave up a couple of runs. The problem is the Tigers have not scored their first at bat and have been given us a clinic in hitting into double plays and squandering scoring chances ever since.

They’re down 3-2 with the White Sox batting in the top of the 8th.

Might as well throw out there who we’re on tonight:

Milwaukee -129 over Atlanta.  Brewers always worth a look at home, especially with their ace on the mound at a cheap price. I think they bounce back from last night and get the win tonight.

Houston -136 over NY Mets. The Mets are a mess and have one of the biggest money burners of the season. The Astros are just too hot to bet against right now.

Dodgers -168 over Marlins. Dodgers have been the best home team all season. We’re chasing a bit here. They lost last night at home, so we’re betting on them today that it wont happen twice in a row. If we loss, we’ll bet double on them tomorrow that it wont happen three times in a row. The whole point of this progessive chase is to eventually win a Unit when the best home team in baseball finally wins another game at home. Hopefully, it wont take a while. What can go wrong?

Those are the three tonight. Hopefully we have a Tigers comeback in the late innings.

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I struggled staying up through the final innings, but it was worth it plucking out a 2-1 record on those three west coast games I played last night. It evened the record at 6-6 for E.P. Read more »

Estimated Prophets Stays Up Late

July 24, 2009
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With one week to go in July, its showdown weekend in the National League. Ten teams are above .500 on the senior circuit and eight of them play each other in three-game sets beginning tonight.

St. Louis and new acquisition Matt Holliday take on the champion Phillies. The Giants are in Coors taking on the Rockies in a matchup of the top two teams in the Wild Card chase. Atlanta travels to Milwaukee and the Marlins are out west facing the Dodgers. Toss in a battle for first place between the Tigers and White Sox and the Twins playing the Angels in the American League, combined with the scuttlebut of the looming trade deadline, and an intriguing weekend of bases will surely ensue.

We’re staying up late tonight. We like the matchups and are going to the window. Here’s on who and why:

Giants +119 over the Rockies. I hate betting against the home team at Coors, but this has not been a real vintage Colorado team in Denver with a pedestrian 25-20 record. The Giants struggle on the road, but they have Matt Cain going tonight. The Giants are 14-5 in his starts, including wins in five of their last seven on the road. Cain has 15 starts where he has given up 2 earned runs or less, 12 with only one or less. Rockies could end up winning the series in the end, but they’ll be in a 1-0 hole after tonight.

Dodgers -150 over Marlins. We’re fading an ace. Hopefully that works better than backing them has for me. Dodgers have been the best home team all season. It’s not like they have some srcub pitching tonight in Kershaw, whose season has rivaled Johnson’s, his counterpart tonight. I like having the best home team in baseball at such a cheap number with one of the better hurlers on the mound.

Angels -150 over Twins. I’ll take Lackey tonight against a Twins team he has had a lot of recent success against. Sigh. Guess I will never learn since I am back on an Ace again.

We ended up going 4-5 last weekend in our foray into the world of baseball. Some of the money came back on Sunday, but I was nowhere near a computer to blog. But, for integrity’s sake, those games aren’t being included as we keep track. For now, I like the routine of making small bets on the weekend. It’s helping to scratch the itch thats become a bit more noticeable as football season approaches.