Mid American Conference

Bowl Chronicles: Pizza Pizza & Belk Bowls, WMU/Purdue, LVille/NCState

December 27, 2011
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It was a travel day for the JCB, so regretfully their wont be a blowout in-depth post on today’s bowl game. Or maybe we’re lying and just not reminding you of JCB Rule #17: Dont ever waste people’s time two days in a row with more than 1,000 words on craptastic insights that lead to a play that you’re out of basically once the ball kicked off. Probably a little bit of both. Either way its ironic since its the first day with multiple postseason exhibitions since the bowlapalooza began 10 days ago. Want a taste of our college sports analysis, check out Chitown’s look at tonight’s Minnesota/Illinois basketball game that helps kick off the new Big 10 Hoops season. With five hours in a car today, however, that did give us ample time to talk ourselves into plays for tonight. So, here goes.

Purdue -1 over Western Michigan, x 1……1, its a MAC team, so their defense will probably stink. Do you want the worse defense in these bowl games? 2, I dont think WMU will be able to run the football against the Boilers. 3, this is mostly because the Boilers outclass Western along both lines of scrimmage. Kawaan Short will dominate. And some of the edge rushers by the Boilers who struggled against bigger, Big 10 teams will emerge today. 4, Its the Big 10′s first game of the bowl season and as a Big 10 sucker I have to play this. 5, Karma the day after famous Boilermaker Drew Brees set the single season NFL passing record. 6, to fade a public thats bet this game down from Purdue -3. 7, I think Purdue has a solid set of corners who can keep down Carder, White and company. 8, There is nobody around to punch and remind me that way back in September we lost a coin flip game on the Boilers against Rice. Live and not learn, I guess.

NC State -2.5 vs Louisville, x 2….We won on Louisville last year in the postseason. We havent been interested in NC State since Russell Wilson left campus. We’re none to eager to back anything that even reeks of the ACC after last night’s UNC debacle. Yet, we’re rolling with the Pack tonight. You always have to ride the coach whose proven he can win these tricky fake, yet real games they call bowls.  He’s 8-2 SU, ATS in bowls. He’s won and covered against Boise on the Smurf Turf in a bowl game. I might not like him overall as a coach and his dink and dunk routine with Mike Glennon will drive us crazy tonight, but you just cant fade him in this spot. He’s also always been one the best coaches with time to prepare. Louisville’s Teddy Bridgewter can make some exciting plays, but he’s just as vulnerable to mistakes. This might be too big a game for him to expect a clean slate. I like both these defenses, they’re very hard to sustain long drives against. I give the nod to the NC State offense that has a bit more parts to it. Plus, the game is in North Carolina. Pack win this by a touchdown.

Purdue for a single shot. NC State for a double shot. Both favorites? Whats happening here?!?!

Bowl Chronicles: MAC Vs WAC On Smurf Turf For All The Potatoes

December 17, 2011
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FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL, 5:00. UTAH STATE VS OHIO U. LINES USU -2, O/U 60.5

Every bowl season, there is always a game between midmajors that very few people watch, but that could compete for best, most exciting bowl game of the postseason run. In 2007, Utah and Navy went back and forth in a 65-point game. Three seasons ago, Colorado had enough fireworks to outlast Fresno in a 75-point game. Two years ago it was Idaho’s 43-42 last second win over Bowling Green. Last year, how about FIU’s rousing comeback, punctuated by a hook and ladder play, against Toledo. Predictably, a lot of these games seem to involve a MAC squad. If we’ve learned anything about the MAC over the years its that it is a devilish conference to try and handicap and the cliche expect the unexpected is activated. Its why I feel this year’s Famous Idaho Potato Bowl between Utah State of the WAC and the MAC’s very own Ohio University will be the midmajor bowl game that ends up on everybody’s best of bowl season list.

I expect a shootout. I love the offensive playmakers on both sides of the field. They should exchange haymakers all day long.  Utah State’s Robert Turbin might be the best running back in the country you’ve never heard seen play. After missing 2010 with an injury, he returned to the field and followed up his 2009 1,296 yard effort by gashing defenses this year to the tune of 1,416 yards, 6.2 yards per carry and 19 touchdowns. Michael Smith and Kerwynn Williams combined for just shy of another 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns giving the Aggies a legit three headed attack from the tailback position and the nation’s 6th ranked rushing attack. Ohio has their own stars, such as QB Tyler Tettleton. He passed for over 3,000 yards, accounted for 35 touchdowns, registered at least two scores or more in 10 of 13 games and finished 20th in the nation in total offense with 286.23 yards per game. Donte Harden gives them a 1,000-yard type of tailback and LaVon Brazil is an NFL wideout plying his trade in the MAC. He’s averaged 16.3 yards per catch, caught 10 touchdowns and had 100 yards in six of his last nine games. Both teams have great offensive lines. Both teams are in the top quarter of the country in most of the various tempo free stats used to measure efficiency. Folks, two of the best, most effective offenses in the postseason will knock heads in this Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Toss in the Smurf Turf of Boise Stadium and this game just feels like a 38-35, last team with the ball wins type of contest. It might be a rule that whenever a MAC team plays on the Smurf Turf that you must take the Over. It sounds like a rule, doesnt it? Once the JCB intern team wakes up, we’ll have one of them re-read the rulebook, so stay tuned. We might have a JCB Twitter announcement later. Who knows?

 Even though the MAC has a terrible record in bowl games (incuding a goose egg in three kicks for Ohio U under Solich) and the fact we’re bumping heads with the always astute Conference Chalk, I like the RAWRCATZ  in this one. I feel they’re more balanced. They not only will get a more efficient game out of Tettleton than USU will get out QB Adam Kennedy,  but it will be a more explosive effort. The ability to do damage in the air will give them the edge in a match where there will be a lot of offense. I give a defensive edge to Ohio U as well. Yes, Bernard Pierce and Temple ran on them, but the team was also caught off guard a bit with a first time starter going against them who added a unique rushing element to go along with Pierce. Otherwise, not many teams have run the ball on them. Utah State wont plow through them with ease and this game comes down to which quarterback can generate more points with his arm. I’m riding with Tettleton and the Cats get this done unless the defense totally collapses. Besides, Solich under OU have been profitable underdogs, going 22-13-1 ATS in his tenure, including a current 8-1 run when catching points against fellow mid-majors.  Despite the breakthrough bowl season, Utah State has not been kind to bettors this fall, going 2-5 ATS in their final seven games.

The Pick: Ohio U +2…….This game comes down to how will Tyler Tettleton respond to his performance in his last outing when he threw three picks, a major factor in his team’s eventual MAC Championship Game loss to Northern Illinois. That’s one third of his picks all season and his worst effort of the year. Well, worst half of the year. In the first half, he, Brazil and the passing attack dominated and opened up a big lead. I’m sold on this kid within this level of play. He’s looked good all year. The MAC’s top spot has been on a steady rotation based on who has the #1 QB in the league. With NIU’s Harnish departing, look for Tettleton to take that role. I think he makes a statement today that has most pundits sometime in the ensuing tomorrows proclaiming the Bobcats next season’s MAC favorites.

Big 10 Bowl Chronicles: Taking On Mid-Majors

December 5, 2011
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Let’s kick off our 2011-12 Bowl Chronicles Series with the first part of our Big 10 postseason preview. We’ll have our own kneejerk takes on all the Big 10 bowl games, beginning with this post featuring the two matchups against mid-major competition: Penn St vs Houston and Purdue vs Western Michigan.

TICKECT CITY BOWL, 1/2, NOON. PENN STATE VS HOUSTON

Houston may have fallen short of a BCS Bowl Berth, but getting a chance to run circles around a brand name team from the Big 10 isnt a bad consolation prize. And fans will at least get a chance to see if Case Keenum and his go-go-go offense can land haymakers against a legit top-10 Defense from a major conference. Its the Conference USA runner up and 19th ranked Cougars vs the Big 10 Leaders East Division Co-Champs and 22nd ranked Nittany Lions. Last year this bowl game was Northwestern vs Texas Tech. This year’s game is a lot sexier. A year ago, 83 points was scored in this bowl game. If Houston is going to win this game, the total score needs to at least threaten that, dont you think?  The Cougars can put a ton of stress on the Nittany Lion back line of defense. The Lions may have a great passing defense from a numbers standpoint, but they havent tangled with something like this before. What PSU gives up per game through the air is about what Keenum expects to have gained by halftime. Penn State has allowed just 9 TD passes, while Keenum has tossed 45 scores this year. The Cougs have not been held to less than 28 points and have scored 48 or more nine times. Only three foes have been able to climb out of the teens against Penn State. Looking for a boxscore battle? Try Houston’s offense which is #1 in the country in drives that average 10 yards per play vs a Nittany Lion defense thats #2 in the country in not allowing such big play, home run drives. Almost one-third of Houston’s drives are like that while Penn State has only allowed 3.1 percent of opposing drives to move at a 10-yard per play clip. Can Houston get their fireworks ignited? Can Penn State force them into a slower, uncomfortable, methodical pace? 

 This game might be a nightmare bowl selection scenario for PSU, but I love this game. Whats great about this game is Penn State hasnt really seen an offense like this in the Big 10. Thwarting James Vandenburg and Iowa, this is not. But, of course, Houston hasnt seen a defnese like this anywhere up and down its Shermanesque escapades through the Conference USA this fall. We’ll get definitive accounts on whether or not the Houston offensive and Penn State defensive are legit or frauds based on shaky competition. I think the bowl selection process actually gave us a good matchup here. Its at least intriguing with the great offense going against the great defense. Houston will lands its haymakers, by my early lean is Penn State. Penn State is similar to the Southern Miss D that vanquished Houston over the weekend, in that both have secondaries that ballhawk and get INTs. Overall, PSU is much better on that side of the ball than Southern Miss too. Devon Still, Jordan Hill and Jack Crawford should control the interior and blow up the Houston offensive line.  Penn State should be able to run the football all day. I’m inclined to think the Big 10 defense and a 155-yard, bowl MVP effort out of Silas Redd will be enough for a Penn State win. If you almost lost to UCLA, like Houston nearly did way back in September, then you’re probably not good enough to overtake one of the best bowl programs out there in Penn State. They’re 27-14-2 in bowl games and just know how to handle the various hullaballoos that come with these games. Of course, the whole Penn State handbook has been usurped with the Sandusky scandal and Joe Pa ousting. It’ll be interesting to see if the current Nits brass approaches bowl games any differently.

PIZZA PIZZA BOWL, 12/26, 4:30. PURDUE VS WESTERN MICHIGAN

The second bowl game pitting a Big 10 school against a mid-major is the Pizza Pizza Bowl in Detroit where Purdue takes on Western Michigan. It marks a return of the Big 10 to this bowl game that was once known as the Motor City Bowl. Despite a down year for the league, the Big 10 still notched a pair of BCS bids and had a total of 10 bowl eligible teams. For the first time since 2007, it was able to fill all its contractual slots and land a team in this bowl game. And, its Purdue, who repped for the league last time it was here with an exciting 51-48 win over a Dan LeFeveur-led Central Michigan team,  returning to Detroit to play a MAC team. Western doesnt come into the game with the conference championship hardware that CMU squad did, but they do have their own big armed QB in Alex Carder. Both these teams played Michigan in Ann Arbor this year. Both games kind of played out the same. Western and Purdue both scored first, on their first drive and then didnt score again until the game was effectively out of reach. The problem is I dont know if Western is even a top half MAC team this year. They arent as good as Northern, Ohio U, Temple or Toledo. They lost to Eastern. At best, this is the MAC’s #5 team. Of course, they’re going against the Big 10 #9 or #10 team, so its all good. We’ve been wondering for years if a second division Big 10 team could beat a middle of the road MAC team and we’ll get a chance this bowl season. Of course, we learn about this every September too, but whose counting.

Western will make a game of it, especially with the Carder to Jordan White combo. I dont know about you, but I already cant wait to bet the prop on White’s receiving yards. Expect it to be high, however, as he’s gone over 106 yards in eight of his last 11 games. But wont Kewaan Short and Bruce Gaston just wreck the Western offensive line? Isnt this matchup for DE Gerald Gooden, whose often nuetralized by the bigger tackles in the Big 10, a perfect fit for him to have a lot of positive activity?  Western’s D is terrible. They’re 87th in the country in available yards allowed and 99th in the land in value drives allowed. Translated, you can move the football all day on them, and I expect this offense with solid, competent playmakers to keep it rolling for Purdue most of the day. I dont know if it will be the shootout like the last time Purdue played in the Motor City, but I could see them winning in a game where even the loser hits 30 points. Of course, the Boilers also lost to Rice this year. So, there’s probably a decent chance they’re the ones scoring 30 in a losing effort. Like the Houston/Penn St game, this appears to be a fairly even battle with enough offense vs defense intrigue that it ought to keep us entertained.

Friday Night Football: Pac-12, MAC Championship Games

December 2, 2011
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This Pac-12 Championship Game between Oregon and UCLA  is ridiculous. Washington State hiring Mike Leach is miles more exciting than this actual game. I love John Brandon’s suggestion at Grantland that it would be more fun just watching the Ducks scrimmage and practice against each other. Couldnt agree more and, frankly, their spring game is must-see TV every year, so hopefully ESPN will broadcast it again like they did a year ago. But, good grief, this game with UCLA is atrocious. I’ve got some more radical ideas than Brandon.  I say screw USC’s probation. We’re running out of college football and providing us fans with better games is more important than punishing kids who had nothing to do with the Trojans transgesssions from eight years ago. I want to see a USC/Oregon rematch. That game a few weeks ago was off the hook. Just give Oregon the auto BCS bid, but let USC in this game to play for all the Pac-12 marbles. Or go a step further. Sorry, UCLA, but you flat out stink. Move Boise or Houston into this game instead of their respective, expected blowouts tomorrow. If they win, they get a BCS Bid to the Rose Bowl or something. Alabama isnt doing anything but sitting on their asses and backing into the national title game without breaking a sweat since their loss to LSU. Have the Tide play the Ducks tonight. If they fare as well as LSU did back in September against Oregon, then they will have earned a rematch with the Tigers for the National Championship. Anything would be better than forcing us to watch this UCLA execution tonight. The worst part about it is, the Bruins have already canned coach Rick Neuheisel, so we cant even have props on when they’ll fire him. The Ducks have to win this game tonight or else it would kill the Pac-12′s reputation.

 The Ducks and Bruins have played some classic games over the years, but this wont be one of them. Despite playing the game in Eugene, there really isnt a lot of buzz, it might not be a sellout and tickets are going on the cheap. The only drama in this game is will the Ducks hit the Over/Under total of 66 by virtue of their score alone. I give them a great chance at doing that. They’ve only done that once this year, when they dropped 69 on Nevada, but the Over has hit in 8 of 12 Oregon games this year, thanks to a Duck offense thats exceeded 40 points nine times. They scored more than 50 against crappy league rival Arizona and excellent league rival Stanford. More than a quarter of their drives average 10 yards per play and more than half their drives extend beyond the 30-yard line of enemy territory. I expect the Ducks to exceed both those percentages this evening.  I dont see how they dont tilt the 50 mark if they’re on their A-game. But who knows? This game is going to be such a blowout, a controlled scrimmage really, a farce of a conference championship game. Oregon can name their score. What if Chipperson Kelly decided 45-14 is just enough. The Ducks wont cover, nor will the Over. This is Championship Weekend, fer gawds sake, why do we have a SEC vs Sun Belt team kind of point spread. Ridiculous. I cant play either side. I might have to number crunch some player props this afternoon and maybe make a play there.

Meanwhile, the exciting game of the night will be played in Detroit when Northern Illinois takes on Ohio U for the MAC Championship. You have to think that one of these years, it will eventually be Northern Illinois’ year. I dont think you can find a team in any FBS league that has achieved as much in the last decade or so without winning a league championship. Despite churning out 8, 9 and 10 win seasons, the Huskies have yet to sit atop the MAC at the end of the season. For years, they had trouble getting by Toledo in the division. Then as the Rockets faded in the final years of the Tom Amstutz Era, there was always some other game that tripped NIU up. They have made two MAC Title Games in recent years, but both times lost as heavy favorites, once to Akron on a long pass play to end the game and a year ago to Miami as 2-touchdown chalk. Is this finally their year?  Standing in their way is a Bobcat team thats become a solid, winning program under Frank Solich. After years of being a cellar dweller, Ohio has been bowling now in four of Solich’s six seasons. They’ve also made two previous MAC Title games, losing to CMU and their great QB Dan LeFeveur in 2006 and 2009, failing to score more than 10 points in each game. These squads have played in a total of four total championship games since 2003, but are 0-4. Somebody will be breaking through tonight, but who?

Whoever does breakthrough will do it on the basis of offense. This is the MAC, after all, so defense is very, very optional. The Over/Under total is 71 and both team Over/Under props are 37.5 for NIU and 33.5 for Ohio. Over players need the typical MAC fireworks this evening. For the Huskies, its all about the genius of Chad Harnish. He’s one of the best dual threat QBs in the land. He’s passed for 2,692 yards and rushed for 1,355 yards. Thats over 4,000 total yards. He’s passed for more than 200 and run for more than 100 in five of the last six games as Northern overcame a sluggish start to the season to win the MAC West with an electric offense down the stretch. Ohio’s offense is triggered by great QB too, but its the more traditional pocket passer Tyler Tettleton pulling the strings. In his first year as a starter, he’s been the difference in what was a muddled MAC East race. He’s completed 64 percent of his passed and tossed 26 TDs to just 7 picks. He’s got some legs, but not nearly like Harnish. He did rush for over 500 yards, so he’s got some skills. The big play man in this offense is WR LaVon Brazil. He’s just shy of 1,00o yards for the season and has five 100-yard games in MAC play this year.

Northern is an elite midmajor offense. They are pretty much among the national leaders of every relevant stat. Do you want explosive drives? The Huskies are 7th in drives that average 10 yards or more. Do you want methodical, long drives? Northern is 11th in drives of 10 or more plays. Do you want an offense that gobbles up yards like its their job? Northern is 12th in the land in available yards earned. They’re 9th in total yards, 8th in rushing yards and 11th in scoring. Ohio’s offense might look as statistically guady, but its on the fringe of the top-quarter of the country in those advanced metric stats and they’re 16th in total yards, 20th in rushing yards and 35th in scoring. The major difference is Ohio has significantly better defensive numbers. Northern basically has been replacing their entire defensive unit from a year ago and it showed, especially during the turbulent first half of their season. Read more »

MAC Chronicles: A Tuesday Night Football Double Shot

November 8, 2011
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After an exciting first week of November, the Mid American Conference takes center stage again during the midweek schedule of college football games with four contests spread out over the next three nights. The divisional leader boards as well as bowl possibilities are up for grabs in each game. The league is guaranteed three bowls spots (The Potato, Pizza Pizza and Go Daddy Bowls…..and, yes, those are actual bowl contests. I didnt make those up), and could get as many as 5 teams invited to bowl games if other leagues can not fill their contractual slots. With seven teams sitting at either 6-3 or 5-4 and two teams at 4-5 that more or less control their own fate for their respective division titles, there are lojgams in the race for the postseason and every league game seems to be a factor in those chases. Lets take a look at the two games going on tonight. Who loves Tuesday Night Football? We do, yo.

Northern Illinois at Bowling Green, Lines, NIU -5.5, O/U 65.5……I really dont think the Huskies are as elite as last year’s outfit that steamrolled through the MAC regular season and trounced Fresno State in a bowl game. But, here they are, in the MAC West Driver’s Seat and in line for a repeat appearance in the MAC Championship. As we saw a week ago against Toledo, they can do whatever they want on offense. Chandler Harnish is the straw that stirs the Huskies drink on offense. He’s a 4-year starter at QB, a legit dual threat and a year after collecting 3,366 total yards and 28 combined touchdowns, he’s on pace for even better numbers this season. He’s almost surpassed his rushing totals from a year ago as the Huskies have replaced factor back Chad Spann by running the QB more, especially in their biggest games of the year. In wins over Western Michigan and Toledo that have put the Huskies in first place, Harnish ran for an average of 181 yards, to go along with 200 yards passing in each game as the Huskies put up 51 and 63 points. The Huskies are a point machine, averaging over 45 points per game in conference play. The problem with Northern has been their defense. Dont forget, they did allow 60 points in regulation a week ago in their win over the Rockets. As of now, they’re 119th out of 120 in defensive efficiency. Bowling Green has more than enough weapons to take advantage of a defesnse thats among the worst in the country in giving up available yards, big plays and long drives. QB Matt Schilz averages 255 yards a game through the air and has tossed 19 scores. He’s got a pair of dangerous targets in Kamar Jorden and Euguene Cooper, both have more than 50 catches and tailback Anthon Samueal averages 97.3 yards per game and almost six yards per carry. There is no way the NIU defense that we’ve seen the first two months of the season will throttle this offense. BG will land their haymakers.

The Falcons are a tricky team to figure out. They have wins over Miami and Temple and a tight, spread covering loss to Toledo. So, they’ve been at their best when playing the top tier of the MAC. But, then they drop a 27-15 to woeful Kent State.  Because of some of those wins the Falcons, despite their 4-5 record, have a legit road map to the league finals. Right now the East is such a cluster, with five teams separated by a game in the standings. If the Falcons win out, they will add a win and tiebreaker over Ohio to go with those Temple and Miami scalps. If they then can get another Miami loss along the way, then they would be the East Champs. Of course, the postseason line is a thin one in the MAC. Any more losses for BGSU and the best they could finish is 6-6 and 6-6 MAC teams never get bowl invites. So Bowling Green’s entire postseason hopes are on the line tonight.

Western Michigan at Toledo. Lines, Toledo -12, O/U 68.5……..One side firmly in Bowling Green’s corner tonight are the Toledo Rockets. Rivals by birth, but allies tonight by circumstance. The Rockets sit tied with NIU for the West lead, but lose out on the tiebreaker in the wake of their loss to the Huskies one week ago. Between Coach Tim Beckman’s poor clock management and the Rockets improved defense totally collapsing against NIU there was plenty to be disappointed a week ago. This is the most talented team in the MAC, but now need to win out and get at least one NIU loss to qualify for the league title game. The start of November was supposed to be a crowning for the Rockets en route to getting back to the MAC Title Game after a 5-year absence. But the defensive breakdowns a week ago have ruined the party. Now the 93rd ranked passing defense in the land faces an interesting challenge with Western Michigan and their gunslinging QB Alex Carder. With Carder pulling the trigger, the Broncos have the 17th ranked passing attack in the land at 292.2 yards per game. Carder has had four games of more than 300 passing yards. In Jordan White, he has one of the more dangerous receivers in the country. White had had five 100-yard games this year and has already passed the 1,000-yard mark for the season. Between he and Toledo’s Eric Page, we’ve some high profile wideouts on display in this game. Dont be surprised if they play a game of ‘anything you can do, I can do better’ as these offenses battle it out.  Western still harbors flickering West Division hopes. They need to win out and somehow see NIU lose twice down the stretch. But, if they add a few more wins, including tonight, Western could return to the postseason and snare a bowl invite for the first time since 2008. The question for Toledo is can they rebound on defense and will the offense stall in the second quarter like it did a week ago when the Rockets changed QBs. They’ve been rotating Austin Danton and Terrance Owens most of the season, but the offense went awry a week ago with Owens in the game. In another must-win showdown, does Owens see the field as much and can he perform any better when he does? The Broncos have major issues stopping the run. Sounds like a great game for Toledo’s three-headed tailback monster of Adonis Thomas, David Fluellen and Morgan Williams. From what I’ve seen Thomas is the best of the bunch and after missing time earlier in the year with injury is coming off his best game of the season with 160 yards last week against NIU.

What will happen? Will anybody’s defense step up? Thats doubtful. Taking both overs look like good bets. Although thats still a lot of points. If we even get a quarter of competent defensive play, those totals will be hard to tilt. I dont expect anybody to stop anybody rushing attack. These are four of the worst rushing defenses in the country. The thing is all four of these teams have capable to great quarterbacks and they all have wideout targets that can do damage. I feel that there might be a bit more defense played in the Toledo/Western game, but not that much. And, as a result, we’re going heavy on the props. Here are four that we are thinking about right now. We’ll confirm actual play later today via the JCB Twitter. Read more »