Game Previews

Three to Watch: Night Games Edition

September 30, 2011
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Three to Watch is going under the lights this week for a peek at some of the KNIGHT JAMEZ! We have a great weekend of college football coming up and Jamie has you covered (pun?) for some of the early contests. You’ll notice the big Wisconsin-Nebraska tilt as a conspicuous omission here, but I’ll be posting an in-depth preview for that one in short order. I really like that Washington at Utah game in the Pac-12 as well, but I’m not sure you can catch that one on national TV. Utah is favored by 8 and these teams can really score (I’m taking the Huskies to cover). Let’s get to a few other gems.

Clemson at Virginia Tech, 6:00, ESPN2

Is a 6 PM start really a night game? I suppose most of it will take place after dinner, so what the hell, it’s a great match-up. Much like the Wisconsin-Nebraska game, this could be a preview of the conference championship game, as Clemson has already dispatched Florida State and Va Tech looks like the front-runner in the Coastal Division. Clemson will lean on QB Tajh Boyd, who has led the ACC with 13 TDs and 1,255 yards passing. Boyd’s favorite target this year has been freshman wideout Sammy Watkins who has six scores and averages over 15 yards per catch. Make your pick on Watkins over/under 122.5 rushing/receiving yards in this week’s Pick-4. I’m going under.

Coming off of a huge win against Florida State, it won’t be easy to go into Blacksburg and grab a win. In fact, the last time Clemson was riding such a hot start and played at Virginia Tech they came out behind 24 to 7 in 2006. Play on the edges of the line and defensive backfield will be key for the Hokies. Slowing down a passing attack always starts with pressure on the passer and defensive ends James Gayle and J.R. Collins can provide that pressure. On the back end, Jayron Hosley will probably be primarily responsible for slowing down Watkins, and also the reason I’m sticking with the under on Pick-4. On the other side of the ball, it will all come down to the Hokies’ sophomore QB Logan Thomas. If Thomas can navigate his way through the game without big mistakes, the Hokies will score in the 20’s and have a chance to win. Like always. This won’t be a blowout though and I like Clemson to cover the one touchdown spread.

Texas at Iowa State, 7:00 FX Read more »

Three to Watch in Week Two

September 9, 2011
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Three to Watch returns with three games that you won’t want to miss in Week Two of the CFB season. I know we missed Week One, but when you’ve been without football for so long you simply need to watch every game you can. A lot of cupcakes will be consumed by powerhouses this week, but there are plenty of good tilts for your viewing pleasure. Let’s get to three of the best.

Mississippi State at Auburn, 12:20 SEC Network/ESPN3- Just about everyone in the country was sadfaced by Auburn’s lightning quick comeback last week after it looked certain they would lose to Utah State to open the season. Karma’s heavy hand was about to connect a forceful backhand the Tigers so fully deserved, but then they marched down the field, recovered the most weakly contested onside kick in history, and marched down the field again for the game winner. Similar heroics will be tough to come by against a formidable Mississippi State team that demolished Memphis in their opener.

The Bulldogs present a huge problem for Auburn’s defense with quarterback Chris Relf and tailback Vick Ballard. After Utah State shredded the Tigers, don’t be surprised if they give up 40+ this week. The Bulldogs rolled up 645 total yards last week, while Auburn gave up 227 on the ground to Utah State. Dan Mullen’s team also plays great defense. Auburn will need more from running back Michael Dyer, who rushed for 57 yards last week. QB Barrett Trotter was efficient in his first start and will need a similar performance to extend Auburn’s winning streak to five over Mississippi State. I don’t think it happens, as the Bulldogs will go into Auburn and get a big win.

Alabama at Penn State, 3:30 ABC- In the first of a couple of “name brand” match-ups on the Saturday slate, Nick Saban will take his Alabama team into Happy Valley to face Joe Pa and Penn State. Michigan and Notre Dame get the visit from College Gameday and a prime-time TV slot, but the Bama/PSU tilt is certainly of more national importance. For the Crimson Tide, this is the one out of conference game that could derail a shot at a national championship bid. Penn State is looking to pull a rather large upset that could propel a young team to a dream season.

The first thing you have to cover with these two teams is the quarterback situation. Both are experimenting at the position and played two signal callers in Week One. For Alabama, it was sophomore AJ McCarron getting the start and redshirt freshman Philip Sims (not that Phil Simms) in pre-planned relief. McCarron will almost certainly start again and if he can limit mistakes and push the Tide out to a lead, he’ll likely finish the game. Both youngsters threw two interceptions last week, but McCarron threw for almost three times the yardage. Joe Pa gave sophomore Rob Bolden the start and junior Matt McGloin got his share of the action as well. Bolden was 6 for 12 for 37 yards and McGloin was 6 for 8 for 77. Both will play again, but PSU might favor the more mobile Bolden in the face of a scary Bama defense.

So both teams have some QB issues, but Alabama has to be a heavy favorite here because they can get sub-par play from the quarterback position and still win by a few touchdowns. The Tide feature one of the top defenses in the country. Not many teams feature this kind of defensive star power, with guys like LB Dont’a Hightower, S Mark Barron, and CB Dre Kilpatrick to go along with a defensive line that gets to the QB with ease. Offensively, Bama has a wealth of talent, but watch for RB Trent Richardson and WR Marquis Maze. In my humble opinion, Richardson has been Alabama’s best back since he’s been on campus, even when Mark Ingram was around. He also has a leading role in Pick-4 this week with the over/under set at 112.5 rushing yards. I’m going under on this one because I think Penn State sells out to stop the run and Bama has other capable backs to share the load. Go play Pick-4! Read more »

Gold Cup 2011: US Looking for Finals Berth, Revenge Against Panama

June 22, 2011
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The USMNT will get its shot at some payback as the Yanks take on the Panama squad that handed them their first group stage loss in the history of the Gold Cup. You have to think this is what Bob Bradley’s troops were hoping for after a dismal showing a week and a half ago led to a 2-1 upset. Coming off of an impressive 2-0 victory against Jamaica, the US should be carrying confidence and momentum into the semifinals along with that motivation to atone for the earlier loss.

Panama has some motivation on its side as well, since the US has knocked Panama out of the last three Gold Cup tournaments. Motivation and confidence; it helps that they so thoroughly confused the US last time out. Most of what I mentioned last time around still stands about the Panamanians, but we saw their gameplan clearly enough: sit back and defend until a chance for a quick counter presents itself.

One of those effective counter-attackers will be watching from the sideline tonight as striker Blas Perez picked up a red card late in the quarterfinal match. No word on whether that precludes him from haunting Tim Ream’s nightmares. Luis Renteria is his likely replacement up top with Luis Tejada. Sounds like an effective 2003 middle infield. A couple other players of note to look out for from Panama: midfielder Armando Cooper and fullback Felipe Baloy. Cooper has been the facilitator of the counter-attack, jumping into the middle of the field from the wing and distributing to the finishers. Baloy was amazing the first time around against the US, blocking shots and thwarting multiple scoring opportunities before the Yanks could get a shot off.

Can Bob Bradley come up with more lineup magic? After some serious criticism in the group stage, Bradley deserves a lot of credit for shifting the lineup in light of the US struggles and Landon Donovan’s late return from his sister’s wedding. Bradley sat Donovan for the first 60 minutes and deployed Sasha Kljestan and Alejandro Bedoya in the midfield, with Jozy Altidore as the lone striker. It worked brilliantly as the Yanks dominated throughout en route to a 2-0 win. With Donovan rested, you have to imagine he will return to the first eleven, but Altidore’s injury (hamstring, out for the remainder of the tournament) leaves two big questions.

First, who does Bradley start at striker? Juan Agudelo was great in Altidore’s place Sunday, but do you really want him working a full game running all over as the lone forward when you’ll want him to do the same thing on Saturday night if you make the final, likely against Mexico? If the answer is no, then Chris Wondolowski is the only other true forward on the roster. Wondo did manage to put a wide open shot over the bar from three yards away in the last Panama match, but I would probably give him the nod against Panama and hope he redeems himself. The other option would be to start Clint Dempsey up top and keep both Bedoya and Kljestan in the midfield, but you don’t want to wear Dempsey out either.

The other question is which “new” starter heads back to the bench with Donovan in the lineup? This is kind of strange, but I think Bedoya has gone from a guy they left off the roster to a player they can’t leave out of the starting eleven. While Klejstan has been great as well,  Bedoya has been very dangerous and creative in the attack. You can’t go wrong here, but I would leave Bedoya in with Donovan, Dempsey, Michael Bradley, and Jermaine Jones in the midfield. Read more »

Big Ten Hoops Looks Ahead to Friday

March 10, 2011
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Day 2 of the Big Ten Tournament brings the conference’s elite to the table for the first time. On Day 1, the entire All-Conference First Team, ten of the fifteen all-conference players, and four of the six bestowed with “honorable mention” all sat on the sidelines. Friday’s action brings the conference’s three heavy-weights into action as well as a tasty Michigan/Illinois matchup in the #4/#5 game – a game that could mean staying out of the play-in round for the winning team.

With most of the matchups yet to be determined, here’s a look at the game we do know – Michigan and Illinois.

#4 Illinois (-2.5) vs. #5 Michigan – 2:30 PM

This game is a re-match between two teams who only met once in the regular season, in a tightly contested game that saw an Evan Smotrycz game-winning three-pointer bounce off the heel, and a Stu Douglass overtime-forcing follow suffer the same fate, as Illinois preserved a two-point home victory. That game, frankly, was a bit of a mess. The two clubs combined to shoot 16.7% from behind the arc, drowning both of their shooting percentages, despite both clubs sporting some of the best eFG%’s in the nation.

In that first game, Illinois’ height gave the Wolverines problems, particularly in the first half. While Illinois is a surprisingly poor rebounding team, given their size (their effective height is top in the NCAA) they did manage to stymie what had been Michigan’s most effective scoring option up until that point – the low-post offense of Darius Morris, frustrating him into 4/12 shooting. On the day, Michigan’s most effective offensive player was freshman Jordan Morgan, who scored 12 points (10 in the second half) and collected three offensive rebounds. The Illini will have to contend with the blossoming Tim Hardaway Jr. as well – he didn’t play inefficiently against the Illini (4/9 from the floor) but was quiet from three-point range. Over his past ten games, the freshman is scoring 18.8 points per game on 51.6% three-point shooting. He’s sure to be a factor. Read more »

Feast Week Day One: Puerto Rico Tip-Off, Preview Part II

November 18, 2010
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The second half of the preview of the Puerto Rico Tip-Off includes tourney favorite North Carolina along with Minnesota, Western Kentucky, and Hofstra. We’ll finish it off with some predictions.

North Carolina- The Tar Heels are coming off of a disappointing season that ended in the NIT instead of the big dance, but start 2010-11 in the top ten. The development of young returning players another influx of new talent provide reason for optimism. Freshman Harrison Barnes netted 14 in his college debut–an 80-66 win over Lipscomb–and has the type of instant impact talent needed to get the Heels back in ACC contention. Other impact newcomers include shooting guard Reggie Bullock and point guard Kendall Marshall. Bullock had 12 in the opener off the bench, while Marshall seemed to supplant starting PG Larry Drew II by the second half ending with 10 points and 3 assists.

Often drawing the criticism of Roy Williams last season, Drew is one of the featured returnees looking for a breakout season. Another junior, Tyler Zeller, led the Tar Heels with 15 points in the opener and is part of a talented, but thin frontcourt. Joining Zeller is sophomore John Henson, who turned in the most impressive game with 10 points, 17 rebounds, and 7 blocked shots. UNC gets Hofstra in the first round Thursday, then will face a good test against Minnesota or Western Kentucky in the second round. Best case for Roy Williams would be for his team to gain some much needed experience against a squad like West Virginia over the weekend.

Hofstra- Coach Mo Cassara didn’t get much time to settle in to his first year at Hofstra before facing the Tar Heels. A blowout win over a D-III team leaves the Hofstra Pride at 1-0. While they don’t stand much of a chance against UNC, they have a couple of players worth noting. Senior guard Charles Jenkins was the conference’s (CAA) player of the year last season averaging over 20 ppg along with 4.5 boards and 4 assists per game. Jenkins had 26, 8, and 8 in the opener and will be the focus of UNC’s defensive prep. Junior Greg Washington will be tasked with solving UNC’s inside game. Washington swatted almost three shots per game, good for 15th nationally. Cassara will have his hands full with Roy Williams’ squad, but he comes from Al Skinner’s Boston College staff who upset #1 ranked UNC in 2009 so I doubt he’ll be intimidated.

Minnesota- The Golden Gophers will continue their early season match-ups against perennial tourney cinderellas when they take on Western Kentucky today. Minnesota has started 2-0 with wins over Wofford and Siena. Much like last season, a talented guard will miss significant time with the suspension of Devoe Joseph. Al Nolen, suspended last year for academics, is back at point guard for Tubby Smith’s bruising team. While Joseph, Nolen, and senior sharpshooter Blake Hoffarber provide experience in the backcourt, the Gophers’ size will be their strength once again. Returning big men Colton Iverson and Ralph Sampson III will see big minutes and junior college transfer Trevor Mbakwe is in the starting lineup after sitting out last season. Mbakwe has started the year with two double-doubles and looks like he’ll make Minnesota even tougher to deal with for small teams. An X factor? Sophomore Rodney Williams, who some draft experts consider a future lottery pick. Williams hasn’t even sniffed that potential thus far, but if he breaks out the Gophers could push into the upper echelon of the Big Ten this season. If they can take care of business against WKU, a test against UNC will tell us a lot about Tubby’s team.

Against the Hilltoppers, Minnesota will need to cash in on their size advantage. With so many talented big men, look for Tubby to direct the ball to the post early and often. If WKU’s center gets in foul trouble it could be ugly. In the end, the first round match-up will come down to whose pace this one is played at with WKU trying to run and Minnesota hoping it’s a half court game. The guys at From the Barn have plenty of good preview material, including an interview with a confident WKU blogger. Read more »