Estimated Prophets

Estimated Prophets Lives Where Sun Belt Is Chalk Over Big 10

August 9, 2010
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We’ve passed another notable milepost of the college football offseason. As of now, the complete Week One betting board has been released. Every game for the entire opening weekend has been made available to the public as the season moves from something on paper, in between magazine covers towards something more real and breathing. What? You thought I was going to say the recent benchmark passed was the start of practices all over the country. Yeah, that too, exciting stuff, of course.

Books released Games of the Year weeks ago, but the on -lines I peruse for lines do not, however, release any odds for the first week. When the Golden Nugget released lines way back in June, they did include a couple from opening week. But, you cant access those lines from a computer, so there’s no way of tracking those lines, short of actually being there in person every day. So when the Books I frequent put out there Big Board for all of Week One over the weekend, you can rest assured that it caught my eye. Folks, we are one step closer to actual games being played. Using the release of these lines as a backdrop, let’s take a spin around the Big 10.

Dear college football pundits: You can officially stop predicting the Middle Tennesse Raiders over Minnesota as your upset special for Week One. That’s because, per the oddsmakers, the Raiders are chalk and, as you know, if you are favored, then you cant pull off an upset.  MTSU has been installed as whopping 4-point chalk over PLAY4BREW. We are formally in a world where a Sun Belt team is favored over a Big 10 club. Hey, I’m just glad Michigan is not said Big 10 club. Everyone wants to know what kind of success Minnesota will have defensively trying to stop Dwight Dasher and the high powered Raider attack. But the game might be decided by what happens when the Gopher offense has the ball, going up against a rebuilding, new-look Raider defense that’s replacing key starters along each unit. It’s a critical season for Minnesota and PLAY4BREW, but will they go boom or bust with their tough schedule? The game in Mufreesboro is practically a must-win if they want to go bowling for a third straight season.

The heavy Big 10 chalk  on opening weeked are Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconsin. The Buckeyes are -29 against Marshall. It’s one of eight lines across the country that weekend that’s more than a 4-touchdown spread.  Perhaps oddsmakers have caught wind of the alleged offensive reformation in Columbus and have adjusted lines appropriately in the wake of threats from the Vest that they might pass the ball 30 times a game. Michigan State is -21 against in state rival Western Michigan, while the Badgers are -19.5 on the road at UNLV. Hopefully, the lights wont go out this time. There must be some home love for the Rebels, however. This was a game the Golden Nugget released in early June and the line was Wisco -23. As on-lines across the world release their opening week odds, it’s down to -19.5. Interesting.

Speaking of line movements, check out the action being collected for the annual Missouri-Illinois tilt at the dome in St. Louis. A year ago, it didnt matter what the line was, people were betting Illinois. Oddsmakers hoodwinked everyone, and Missouri smoked them. This year, apparently it’s going in the other direction.  Setting the Tigers as heavy chalk was NOT GOOD ENOUGH to disuade Missou boosters as the line has gone from -10 at the Golden Nugget two months ago to -13.5 over the weekend as various on-lines finally put out their big board for opening week. They may get swamped with Missouri money as well, but they’re making bettors lay an extra field goal than they had too earlier in the summer.

In the other Big 10 rivalry game during opening weekend, Notre Dame is holding steady as -10 over Purdue. Call me crazy, but I dont think we can say that the Irish are double digit better than any of the BCS teams on their slate. Robert Marve debuting as Purdue QB in South Bend gives me pause, but I could see myself taking a chance with the Boilers and that 10-point head start. Read more »

Estimated Prophets Have First Steelegasms

June 3, 2010
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Phil Steele 2010 Preview

The offseason is formerly over. I now  have an actual copy of Phil Steele’s 2010 magazine. I learned a couple of years ago that the nearest Barnes and Noble, which isnt exactly around the corner where I live, drops these on their newstands pretty much the first business day of June, in advance of the actual release date on the author’s website. So naturally I navigated over there yesterday to pick up a copy. My poolside reading for the summer has been found. Its exciting to know that by the time I have this annual fully digested we’ll be kicking off the season. Its that close people. I’ve only had time to skim various sections, but here are a few Steelegasms I had on intital look see.

Even though I heard about this last week, I remain stunned to see Steele’s research somehow lead him to think the Spartans Keith Nichol is worthy of third team all big 10 selection. The converted QB only recently made the switch this spring and there’s really nothing to suggest he’s going to have that big of an impact. If you’re hellbent on picking on a Spartan in that spot, why not tab Keshawn Martin? He’s averaged over 22 yards a catch last season, was very effective running end arounds and reverses when called upon and is one of the better kick returners in the league. He scored seven times. I believe he’s thrown a touchdown pass in each of his first two seasons at MSU as well. All of this as a backup. Now, he’s a starter. He might make my top 12 WRs in the league, but I know Nichol would not. Steele gets credit for making Martin his first team kickoff and punt returner for the league and perhaps that excludes him for a spot on any of the receiver lists. But, Martin is going to have bigger impact catching the ball than Nichol. Read more »

Estimated Prophets Seeks Sip From Cup

May 29, 2010
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2010 Stanley Cup Finals

Two old school, North American style playing hockey teams meet to begin the Stanley Cup Finals tonight. But their paths couldnt have been more different.

The Blac hawks have been Cup contenders all year, after their breakout a year ago and conference finals appearance. They excelled all season long throwing up a guady 112 points. Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Marian Hossa give them star power and explosive scoring. Kris Versteeg, Dave Bolland and Andrew Ladd give them a a third line that’s dominating defensively after stoning the Sharks. Duncan Keith and Dustin Byfuglien give them a great blue line pair. They’re deep, can score, beat you up and take you down in any style of game you want to play. Antii Niemi has come through for them in their playoffs and their regular season dominance has carried over this spring. They’re heavy favorites to take the series at -240.

In addition to the burden of chalk, their also carrying the weight of one of the longest remaining championship droughts. We mocked the Rangers and Red Wings in the 1990s until they snapped their 54 and 42 year Cup winning droughts. Why arent we LOLing louder as the Hawks approach 50 years since their last win in 1961? Maybe its because the franchise has been so bad in recent years. The Hawks added more than a decade to their drought toiling in irrelevance going years between playoff berths until last year’s arrival as a force. Hockey is a tradition in Chicago, and the town is geeked up to see one its grandest franchises finally play for it all. Most of this franchise’s classic highlights occurred in the black and white film era. This is a chance to rebrand the franchise as a champion. Read more »

Estimated Prophets Gets Friendly, Stares At Week One NFL Lines

May 24, 2010
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We threw around a lot of numbers, odds and uninformed soccer opinions yesterday about the Americans and their chances in Group C. Over the next two days we get to see the two main players in that group in warm up games. England plays Mexico later today and American matches with the Czechs tomorrow night in international friendlies as they work to iron out all the kinks in advance of next month’s World Cup in South Africa. I am not sure what we can learn about Team USA or Team England from these matches, but if I’m going to speak soccer neckbeard over the next month, its probably worth my time to watch. And, of course, they do have odds on these matches, and I dont really need more than that to become interested in any sporting event.

One of the Yanks primary goals in tomorrow’s match: avoiding more injuries. Team USA also has a friendly on each of the next two Saturdays in advance of the World Cup. They play the Turks this week, while next Satuday, they will exhibition with fellow World Cupper Australia. The third Saturday from now will be their World Cup opener against the Brits. Of course, there’s more than just dodging the injury bug at stake against the Czechs tomorrow night. Currently the Nationals are carrying 30 players, but coach Bob Bradley has said they wll pare that down to the official of roster of 23 after tomorrow’s friendly. Translation: Its final cut day. The Americans are -111 to beat the Czechs tomorrow night, with a Draw netting 2.2/1 and a Czech win 2.8/1.

The England match today has some intruigue because they’re playing Mexico. Hey soccer fans, is this like when Notre Dame and OSU play in football? Kidding aside, its one of the few friendlies on the schedule between not just World Cup teams, but squads expecting to advance. England Coach Fabio Capello will experiment in the friendly today and dont expect any of their players who ran in the European Championship game over the weekend to play. Interestingly, the odds on this match are about the same as the one between England and USA to open the World Cup. Mexico, like the Americans, are 5/1 to beat the Brits. Despite playing with the lineup and resting some important guns, England is chalier against the Mexicans than they will be against the Yanks. Today’s price on England is -222, while next month against the Americans is it “just” -188. A draw today pays out at 2.8/1. I cant possibly commit to an actual pick, but isnt risking that much on England to win given they wont put their best team on the field somewhat reckless? Maybe take a flier on a draw, if you must. England, like the US, has a couple more friendlies before the games begin. We’re watching primarily to see if we can learn anything about soccer and these teams. And to see if these games impact the odds at all on the Main Event in South Africa.

Speaking of friendlies, one was already played today between fellow World Cup teams as South Korea topped Japan 2-0. My only take on that is that the Koreans are in Group B with heavy chalk Argentina. The other three clubs–South Korea, Greece and Nigeria–have all been noticeably inconsistent in recent years. Did South Korea turn a corner? They dont fare too well in international play off their own continent, but they are as good a bet as anybody else to come in second place in that group and advance.  Maybe a play with 3.5/1 odds on them being eliminated in the Round of 16 is worth a look?

A GAMBLER’S MONEY KNOWS NO HOME Read more »

E$timated Prophet$: Week One Pick$ And Prediction$

September 5, 2009
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 I have a tendency to break down my games in chronological order separating the slate into three parts and finding picks in the noon, 3:30 and then the night sessions.  With the season about to ring my doorbell, lets forego any long winded intro or dramatic setup and just get on with it.

NOONERS FOR YOUR PLEASURE

The noon kicks puts me face-to-face with one of my favorite dance partners over the years: The Navy Midshipman. Alas, I have to take a pass on them here as the Bucks are a big step up in class compared to the lot Navy has built their solid recent success against. It usually takes the effort of the season just for them to hang with Notre Dame, and they should be applauded for it. Folks, Ohio State is not Notre Dame. This is something I dont think the Middie suad is prepared for. Nevertheless, I am pulling for the Middies because keeping this close late into game would be, well, fun.  It would be a neat way to start September and the most intriguing string of games on the Buckeyes slate.

I also have to pass on the Gophers, who I cant trust laying a road TD (besides, do we consider them at a disadvantage now playing on the road in the dome?) no matter how putrid Syracuse could be;  the Volunteers despite my sneaky belief they might run up the score tomorrow because 30 points seems too steep for a Crompton-led team to climb; Kentucky because you dont get rich by playing this program as bigtime road favorites; and all the assortment of bowl subdivision team vs FCS teams on the slate which if you look long and hard enough you’ll find an offshore somewhere offering a line.

I’m sticking with my previously mentioned small plays on the Steele Underdogs, so that puts me on the side of Akron +28 over Penn State and Toledo +11 over Purdue when the first Saturday off the season kicks off.  I think both of these MAC teams can find offensive success against their Big 10 opponents tomorrow, provided we define offensive success as scoring enough points to lose by closer than the experts think.  

There’s actually more on the line then you think in the Toledo/Purdue game. Look at the schedules for both teams in the upcoming weeks. Purdue travels to Oregon and hosts Notre Dame before the month is out. Toledo, meanwhile, hosts Colorado and plays Ohio State. The loser here could be half way to a losing season before the month is out and find reaching bowl eligible status impossible without a serious run.

I rest my hope with Toledo covering this number on the fact that I think the Rockets have better personnel on offense than Purdue does. All across the board. As long as QB Aaron Opelt can hold it together and connect on a key play or two, the Rockets will have no trouble scoring points. I love Toledo’s line and deep stable of running backs to keep Purdue on their heels all day. Toledo’s defense, however, is another story and is doing some rebuilding along the front seven. That will allow a Purdue offense thats still in transition some success as well, but we dont care if Toledo wins or not. Just that they keep up. I do feel that Toledo has some strength in the secondary, and I could see this unit thwarting first time starter Joey Elliot into a key pick or two. Read more »