College Football

Wisconsin At Ohio State: Historic Bugaboo Comes In Cranky

October 28, 2011
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I love it when the Wisconsin-Ohio State game rolls around. The Badgers have always been a thorn in the side of the Buckeyes, so this Wolverine fan always has an extra snap in his step when the Badgers are about to play the Buckeyes, because the chances of a Buckeye loss are just a little bit higher. And those are odds we’ll take everytime, right? From huge November upsets in the Earle Bruce era that knocked the Bucks out of Rose Bowl races to fun results in the Cooper tenure like the 42-17 win in 1999 that featured 42 straight Badgers points to the fact that no Big 10 team beat the Vest more often than Wisco, including last year’s win over the last Buckeye team ranked #1 with Jim Tressel as their coach. I dont know if anyone not named Michigan has more than the 11 wins the Badgers have over Ohio State in my lifetime as a fan. The SEC as a conference, maybe, but not any individual team. So, the Bucks historic bugaboo comes calling this weekend, rolling into town smarting with a major attitude after being upset on the final play of the game against MSU a week ago. The Badgers can exact some revenge against Sparty in the Big 10 Title Game in December, but they cant afford anymore losses and certainly not one while heavily favored against a struggling OSU outfit..

This was supposed to a red letter day, circled on the calendar as the de facto division championship. But, with the, uh, “challenges”  of OSU this offseason and this fall, they come in with three losses already and are the decided underdog in this one. The Badgers have always been favored in this 2011 matchup. When oddsmakers finally released lines on Ohio State games back in August, they installed the Badgers as short, 3-point favorites. Obviosly, this line spent the first half of the season growing as it became apparent how impotent the Buckeye offense was and how dominant the Badgers looked. The line peaked at -13.5 two weeks ago, but since then Ohio State rallied for a nice looking win over Illinois and Michigan State punctured everybody’s vision of an unbeatable Badger squad. Now that its game week, the line has settled at Wisco -7.5, basically right in between the summer odds and the height Badger chalkiness.

Its been one of the worst seasons in a long time for Ohio State. A loss in this one eliminates anyone who bet the Over on OSU wins this year…….before October ends. I dont know about Columbus, but thats a fireable offense south of the Mason Dixon Line. I’d look out if I were you, Coach Fickell. But it hasnt all been bad. Heck, win this game and you can make a case that they will end up as the Legends East Division Champ. If they win out and Penn State losses one more time in addition to the Bucks at the ‘Shoe next month–and the Nits do have a trip to Madison in November–then Ohio State will make an unlikely appearance in Indianapolis and play in the first league title game. Their November slate is IU, at Purdue, PSU and at Michigan, so its not like they’re going to be totally overmatched in any of those games

Based on their defense, they wont be overmatched at all. I still feel their linebackers arent at the high Buckeye level we’re used to, their secondary is on the young side and they’ve been without pass rushing stud Nathan Williams all season, but look at the production of the stop unit they have put out there. They’re still playing at a high level, or at least high enough to win games in the 2011 Big 10. Their 9th in the country in defensive efficiency, per the Fremeau Efficiency Index. They’re similarly ranekd 9th in two key stats within the index, value drives allowed and available yards gained. Translated, they are a very difficult defense to sustain drives of length against. Or, your typical performing Buckeye defense. However, they are only 5th or 4rth in the Big 10 in most every traditional defensive metric. So, its a good, but maybe not a vintage,  dominant Ohio State defense.

And thats what the Buckeyes need to pull this game out, so I dont think its good enough to win this game. I cant shake the recollection of an average Miami team running the ball consistently down the Bucks throats with Lamar Miller. This rushing attack for Wisconsin is so much better and ruthlessly physical compared to the Miami outfit and is paced by Montee Ball, perhaps the best tailback in the Big 10. This is an elite offense, and if OSU’s linebackers continue to show ‘meh’ ability at reading, reacting and pursuing, then its going to be a long day filled with Badger runs of 7-12 yards.  Plus, the quarterbacking of Wilson. I just think there will be too much for Ohio State to overcome. The defense can keep this game close, but scoring will happen and can the Buckeye offense respond, especially if they get behind? MSU was able to take Wisco’s opening punch or two because they could pass the ball with Cousins and had playmakers elsewhere on offense. When we last saw OSU, they were winning, but doing so by completing just a single pass. You can do that against the solid middle class of this league, but not against its best teams. Read more »

Red River Shootout at High Noon

October 7, 2011
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No Three to Watch this week, as Jamie has your 3:30 window primer with picks and will have some KNIGHT JAMEZ picks later on. Really just one good early game this week, so might as well focus on the Red River Rivalry Shootout. For the first time since 2008 and the second time in seven years, Texas and Oklahoma enter the game undefeated. Oklahoma has notched an impressive win at Florida State, while Texas has successfully completed the first stages of its revenge tour following a 5-7 record last season. 4-0 vs 4-0, Texas vs Oklahoma, fierce rivalry. Get up early buy your meats and cheeses and settle in for FOOTBAW!

Two-Headed Monstah

The Texas quarterback situation is interesting. Returning starter Garrett Gilbert returned this year and had some injury issues giving way to recent legacy QB Case McCoy. Returning starter isn’t that cool of a spot to be in if you’re returning from a team that went 5-7 in a program that doesn’t really do that kind of thing. So, Gilbert has lost that starting spot to McCoy and freshman David Ash, who share the QB duties in a way I haven’t totally figured out yet. McCoy started against Iowa State, but gave way to Ash who went for 145 yards and two scores. The same discussion applies to all of these two-quarterback systems, stating that it gives you the luxury of going with the hot hand, but realizing that “if you have two, you don’t have one.” They’re young kids and having two of them gives you a better chance of finding one that isn’t rattled by the big stage. The youngsters have been great this year, but this will be by far their biggest test. Pretty sure this monster is scarier to Texas than to Oklahoma.

Youguns Everywhere

Texas sports some youth at other key positions. Malcolm Brown has been solid this year at the running back position, averaging around 5 yards per carry. The freshman carries the load for the Longhorns. Kind of a theme. Jaxon Shipley (yep, brother again) and Mike Davis (no relation to that Indiana coach) are the top targets at wide receiver and in those two you have a freshman and sophomore, respectively. Crazy young. Shipley caught six passes for 141 yards and a score against Iowa State last week and has upped his production every Saturday through the early part of the season. It doesn’t stop with the offense either, as Texas rolls out youth on defense, especially in the back four. One to watch in particular is Quandre Diggs, a freshman that Texas fans love and a guy sure to have a lot of responsibilities on Saturday. Read more »

Week 6 Preview: The 3:30 Window, Quantity Over Quality

October 7, 2011
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It’s quantity over quality when it comes to Week 6′s 3:30 kickoff window. There’s just one game between ranked foes, when Florida goes to LSU. But there are upwards of 10 games pitting equal(ish) foes as we’re trying to determine various conference pecking orders. I will probably breakout my fourth and fifth TVs for the first time this season (I’ve been attending games the previous five Saturdays and just havent been home when that many sets were needed) and any one of these games could find themselves on the dial in the fourth quarter. I dont expect the national title chase to be really altered by these games, but the middle class of my blog poll ballot might be. And the bottomline is we’re still trying to figure out half of these teams and there will be plenty of evidence coming in from almost every corner of the country during this window. Let’s take a tour……..

Miami at Virginia Tech. LInes, VT -7.5, O/U 45….Always a must see contest, but its also a virtual elimination game in the Coastal Division race of the ACC. Both come in with one league loss already tagged on their record. Both clubs plays Georgia Tech down the road, so the winner still needs to do a lot to take the division, but the loser will have 2 conference losses, drop a killer tiebreaker and face a long haul with a lot of help needed to qualify for the ACC Title Game. The box score battle between tailbacks will be fun. David Williams for the Hokies is excellent, while the Canes have allowed 4.7 yards per carry this season. A Miami defense thats been gashed for 202 rushing yards a game enters this game down a pair of starters with OLB Ray Buchanan and DT Marcus Forston out for the season with recent injuries, putting a lot of pressure on an already supermodel thin defensive front. Meanwhile on offense, Miami’s Lamar Miller is on pace for a 1,500-yard season and is going for 6.7 yards per pop. He tore up the Hokies a  year ago, but so far the best thing about the 2011 Hokies is their improved rush defense. Will the real Canes stand up? Are you the one that couldnt play enough defense and get enough stops to shake Maryland and Kansas State? Or are you the one that looked downright athletically elite in their beatdown over Ohio State?  Meanwhile, in Blacksburgh there are a lot of question marks. After playing mediocre competition in September and not really looking all that great in the process, they got pantsed by Clemson in front of their own home crowd. One legit game in, one double digit loss. The culprit? An offense that lacks identity. Can they find that on the fly against the gifted Canes? Did you know that the Hokies have needed seven yards or more on half their third downs? Cant see them winning too many important ACC games if that keeps up. The Hokies figured out how to get themselves in a defensive slugfest with East Carolina. So, they can ugly this game up, for sure. Look for the game to come down to which quarterback, Tech’s Logan Thomas or the Canes Jacory Harris, hurts his team the least. I’d wager that would be the Hokies, but seeing Clemson take them out so easily at home makes me wonder if there’s going to be any Lane Stadium Magic this year.

Kansas at Oklahoma State. Lines, Okie St -31.5, O/U 73……..If you’re looking to play chalk, the Cowboys ought to be the biggest frontrunner during this window. No way the Jawhawks hang here. They’re going to lose big, but at least Turner Gill’s troops can do so with virtue. I’m sure that will warm Jawhawk fans every second of this impending woodshed. The Pokes are the biggest favorite on the board during this set of games. Its too bad sportsbook.com isnt offering OSU on their highest scoring team prop board because I’d take the Under on teams that outscore them today. If you can find stat props of Cowboy players, go ahead and take any of the Overs. Okie State is 23-12-1 ATS as home chalk the last decade. This game has 63-20 written all over it.

Arizona State at Utah. Lines, ASU -4, O/U 48.5……..A must win for Utah if they harbor any notion of playing in the Pac-12 title game in their innagural season. And for the Devils, a win could all but cement their place in the league finals, barring a major collapse. Not bad for a club that only went 5-7 last year and was on a 11-21 straight up run against FBS foes coming into this year. Dont forget that USC is ineligible for the league title game, so second place in this division qualifies you this season.  UCLA, Arizona and Colorado wont be factors, outside of possible spoiler role, so it really comes down to these two.  The Devils already own a win over the Trojans, so adding the Utes to their collection of early scalps would really make things difficult for anyone else in this division. A week ago, ASU showed signs of their troubled past, but pulled through to victory over an undermanned Oregon State squad. They gave the ball away on each of their first three possessions. Obvious Statement Alert: They probably wont get away with that again on the road at Utah.  The Utes have already lost to USC and a week ago were trounced by Washington. We’ve learned that maybe they’re a great non-BCS team, but a pretty bad Pac-12 game. They wont have any chance to win this division if they cant defend home turf better in this one. Even with a win, they still would be behind the Devils in the standings. The problem for the Utes is their top QB Jordan Wynn is out for at least the next couple of weeks with a shoulder injury and they’re turning their season over to untested Butte College JUCO transfer Jon Hayes.  He looked decent in his first FBS action of his career coming in for Wynn after the injury, but this is a different ballgame. Is it a good thing to be going against an assassin like Vontaz Burfict with your backup QB? Probably not. The Devils arent a one-man gang on defense either. This has gone from a game where they would be expect to lose to one where now they are expected to continue showcase their legitimacy. I still think this is a major trap for ASU. Utah is also one of the best underdog programs in the land, so I wont be one calling it an upset if the Utes indeed muddle up the division chase with an outright win.

Iowa at Penn St. Lines, PSU -4, O/U 45.5……I touched on this game a bit during the week’s Pick-4 post.  Can the underperforming Iowa defense stop the underperforming Penn State offense? Can the Air Iowa attack maintain this new identity against the 6th ranked pass defense in the nation? Weakness vs Weakness and Strength vs Strength. Sounds like a great matchup. I am standing firm with what I said on the MGoPodcast. The only thing I trust in this game is the Iowa pass offense. The one thing we can count on is the Hawks spraying the ball around the field with James Vandenburg pulling the trigger and using Marvin McNutt, Keenan Davis and an assortment of tight ends for some downfield offense. I think they can get enough points out of the passing game to put this one away. The Hawks have won 9 of 11 matches with PSU and held them to a combined 13 points the last two seasons. The Nits might find a bit more offense this year going against the rebuilding Hawkeye defense. But, I think Penn State is a little overrated themselves on defense and will be severely tested by the first legit aerial attack it will see. The Lions are 3-10 ATS as home chalk. I’m not sure what my final card of the day will look like, but expect Iowa +4 to be one of the highlights. Read more »

Pick 4, Week Six: Getting Lapped By The Leaders Feels Not So Good

October 6, 2011
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Its been a slow posting week, but lets pick up the pace now that the football weekend is formally here. The Pick-4 game is a great way to start. We’re getting into the heart of October and we have a classic race at the top between proven prop players. One thing we know is that the JCB wont be part of the chase. Egads. The leaders have already doubles us up. Well, I guess that’s what putting up 1-3 records like its your job will do for you. There are plenty of folks down there with me, but most of them have skipped a week or two. But you have to hand it to me. Its quite the skill being able to out think myself on these props while fooling nobody else in the process. That takes skill. Right? Please say it does. Anyway on to this week’s props. We’re focusing on the new found identities of Texas and Iowa in their toughest brawls of the season so far. The amazing set of Arkansas wide receivers. And the continuing tire fire saga of the Ohio State offense. Good luck. Please go 0-4. For my sakes. Then again, I’d probably only gain a point on y’all, so, what the hell, go ahead and keep nailing this.

Texas Total Rushing Yards: O/U 118.5……..The Red River Shootout. Dallas State Fair. Sooner vs Longhorns. Both ranked in the top-10. And the best news is for the first time in years, kickoff is not conflicting with a home Michigan game. So I get to sit at home and watch one of the best rivalries live and in High Def. Oklahoma is favored by 10 points. Has Texas cured itself of their 2010 ills well enough to even compete here, let alone win this game. While WEEE EXCITE to finally watch this live, I dont have my hopes up for a classic.  Eleven of the last 14 matchups have been decided by double digits. So you know what would make this game even more interesting? If you answered by making it a Pick-4 Prop, then tell them what they won, Beano. We’ve picked Texas total rushing yards because thats the key stat here. Can Texas run effectively, keep the football out of the hands of the powerful Sooner offense and shorten the game? Or do the Sooners ambush the Horns right away, forcing Texas away from any gameplan that involves their new found quality rushing attack? Against Tulsa, Missouri and Ball State, the Sooners allowed at least 119 yards on the ground. The Horns have to hit that mark to stay in this ball game. Against Florida State, the Noles ran for just 1.1 yard per carry, thanks to all sorts of negative rushing plays from QB sacks to reverse plays blown out by the fast pursuing Sooner stop unit. But even without those losses, the Noles running was stoned. The heroes for Texas in this chase are senior Foswhitt Whittaker and freshman Malcolm Brown. It’s been the freshman whose been Mack Brown’s workhorse. He’s had at least 14 carries in every game and popped UCLA for 11o yards. Brown is a stud. Rivals game him 5-stars, ranking him the #1 tailback in his recruiting class and #10 overall players. He’s lived up to the billing so far, but getting carries in the Red River Shootout is a lot different that toting the rock against Bruins, Cyclones and BYU Cougars. A year ago, 5-star rookie tailbacks Marcus Lattimore and Michael Dyer held starring roles in breakthrough seasons for Auburn and South Carolina. Can Brown begin to match their feats? I think he can. Well,  I think he and Texas will be able to run enough to keep the game close. I still dont know if it will be enough to win the game or cover the spread. But, the Horns, with a lot of Brown, a dose of Whittaker and a couple dashes of DJ Monroe at least will hit this rushing mark. The Pick: 118.5

James Vandenburg Total Passing Yards: 249.5……..I thought about making this Penn State passing yards against the Iowa defense. I’ve been accusing the Hawkeyes on this blog and during the MGoPodcasts that their stop unit looks a lot like Michigan’s the last two years. If they get pantsed through the air by the Bolden/McGloin tandem at Penn State this weekend, then those comparisons just ramp up. Only the 2010 MIchigan should be allowed to make McGloin look like Dan Marino, so no pressure Iowa. So that intrigues me about this game. But, we’re going the other way with this prop,  because we like watching the Iowa passing attack of James Vandenburg, Marvin McNutt and Keenan Davis. They’re 22nd in the country in passing yards, but go up against the 6th ranked passing defense of Penn State.  Iowa has not played any great passing defenses. But Penn State hasnt played any lights out passing attacks either.  Which unit is more legit? The answer will likely tell us if either stands a chance in their respective division races. More so for Iowa. Penn State isnt getting by Wisconsin unless this defense is the 1986 Nittany Lions in disguise, which I tend to doubt. But, if the Hawks passing attack proves dominant this fall, dont think for a second it cant beat MSU and Michigan at home and put themselves in the divisional driver’s seat heading into the finale at Nebraska. Can the tall, experienced secondary of Penn State, that’s permitting just 155 yards in the air, corral this new found Air Iowa, whose averaged 293 yards in the air in his last three outings? I say no. I love the Hawks +4 in this game, think they win straight up and expect Vandenburg to threaten the 300-yard mark in the process. The Pick: Over 249.5

 Jarius Wright, Cobi Hamilton, Joe Adams, Total Combined Receiving Yards: O/U 205.5…… Both teams need this win to stay in the SEC West, but is that even relevant? I dont think either have the chops to last all season in the chase with Bama and LSU. But, the winner of this game will have the look of the third place team in the SEC West, which makes it the third best team in the whole league and undoubtedly one of the best teams in the country. The reality of their ceiling, however, is the winner has the inside track to the Capital One Bowl and a match with, uh, maybe Michigan? The loser probably will spend the rest of the year on a path to the Gator Bowl and a match with, uh, maybe Michigan? I expect a lot of offense in this one. Since we did an Auburn tailback prop a couple weeks ago, lets focus today on the arguably the best receiving corps in the land with the Arkansas flanker set. We could use an assortment of different groupings of Hog targets for this but we’re sticking with their starting 3. It adds an element of luck to it because Arky uses so many different guys. Who knows maybe this is the game Greg Childs breaksout into 2010 form and takes numbers away from one of these three? Or maybe one of the secondary targets has a career day? None of those would surprise me. Despite last week’s effort against South Carolina, I still dont trust this Auburn defense. The Hogs and Tyler Wilson will put so much pressure on them compared to Garcia and South Carolina a week ago. Can the Tigers tackle at the catch, limiting an Arky specialty of yards after catch? I’m inclined to take any over on stat props when the Tigers are playing. The Pick: Over 205.5

Braxton Miller, Total Offense: O/U 122.5…….Each week gets more and more sobering for Ohio State. Their effort a week ago was so bad it dropped them from 91st in the country in total offense to 108th. And now they play a Blackshirt team seething mad after hearing all week about LOL WELCOME TO THE BIG 10. At home, we all expect them to send a message through Ohio State, for whatever that means this calendar year. Dont laugh, but going up against the Huskers might be easier for the Bucks than what we’ve seen. A month ago, the Canes had the benefit of two bigtime returning starters, giving their D extra fire heading into the OSU game. A week ago, they played MSU who might just have one of the best stop units in the land. Something is off with Nebraska, we’ve been saying it all year on the podcasts. We’ll see how far off if they let the Bucks do damage. Washington and Fresno had little trouble running the football and controlling the game for long stretches just flat running the football. Ohio State can do that and maybe, just maybe, another week of practice allows for some progress for the Bucks. I know that cant throw worth a darn, but with Miller, Hyde, Hall and that offensive line, they should be able to run a little. This total seems low. But I’m still going under. Can Miller do anything in the air? Nebraska wont respect that a lick until he beats him once or twice that way. One or two explosive passing plays would probably tilt this over. However, I think the only way the Bucks stay in the game is if they get great field position. Like primo field position after 6o yards kick returns from Jordan Hall or after 50 yards on a return of a Martinez mistake. Heck, or even scores off those plays. The Bucks just cant drive the field against anyone, unless its Akron. Lincoln and a bunch of angry Blackshirts arent Akron. The Pick: Under

Week Five, First Day Of October: Nooners And Picks

October 1, 2011
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Hard to believe its the first day of October already. There’s a great day of football ahead. If you’re in the Pick-4 dont forget to play your entries. SteveY’s Three To Watch series takes a look at someserious heavyweight brawls kicking off in primetime in three different leagues, including the killer Tide/Gator tilt. He even made his own picks, so check it out. He also dove deep into the historic Nebraska-Wisconsin clash in the Big 10. The blog also brokedown the Evil Empire vs Sparty match that highlights the 3:30 window. And, of course, the Little Brown Jug, between Michigan and Minnesota, a game I will be attending with my father and brother.

As for the other early kicks, there might not be any obvious made-for-TV games, but the nooners today are all about quantity adding into a whole lot of quality.  There’s enough decent looking games, that a few are sure to end being thrillers. And with conference games pretty much everywhere, it’s a fun day everywhere. About the only thing we havent talked about yet this week are the highlights of the nooner window, so lets take a look……with my full card of picks today at the bottom.

Texas A/M vs Arkansas, Dallas

Its the 18th ranked team on the JCB Blog Poll Ballot Razorbacks against the 19h ranked Aggies. Winner stays on my ballot with a bullet. Loser faces excommunication. Forget sending a message to a future conference foe, if they’re not All In for a JCB ballot, then they’ve got motivational problems. This looks like its all Aggies. Arkansas has a lot of issues. They’re undersized at defensive end. Inexperienced and not talented enough yet at offensive tackle. A brand new quarterback.  They cant generate turnovers. Troy passed on them all day long. Alabama did anything and everything they wanted to do against them. They dont look capable of hanging with a team that brings in playmakers in every spot on the offense. And thats exactly what the Aggies have. They’re a great little fantasy team with Tannehill, Fuller and Cyrus Gray. But holy hell did they melt down a week ago in that showdown with Oklahoma State. Everything fell apart. They couldnt keep the Cowboys off Tannehill, they swallowed a bottle of turnover pills and had zero answers for OSU QB Brandon Weeden. There’s a great chance Tyler Wilson and one of the country’s best set of receivers can do the same and reel off a game changing spurt of points for the Hogs.  The problem with the Aggies is they lose sight sometimes that their best weapons are Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael. Both were not factors in that second half a week ago. I feel the Aggies are better on paper than the Hogs, but its hard to trust them in a big spot. Arkansas has dumped them two years in a row and they dont have to many resume wins in the Sherman era. Sure, they beat Texas a year ago, but it was the worst Longhorn team in over a decade. Yes, they did beat Nebraska too, but they’re still skimming off the top of the Aggie Spirit Fund to pay the refs for their efforts in the win. I do think they win. The short -2.5 chalk looks tempting for the Aggies. I think thats the play, but I just dont trust them enough to play it. Taking a pass.

Air Force at Navy Read more »