College Football

College Football Week 11: Big 10 Picks

November 12, 2011
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So. Yeah. Big 10 Football. Penn State playing a marquee, Senior Day game against Nebraska…….tell you what, lets look at this game from the strict vacuum of football matchups and pretend nothing else is going on.

Nebraska at Penn State. Lines, Brasker -3, O/U 42.5

After watching Nebraska lose to Northwestern and remembering various struggles they’ve had during stretches of other games, I can totally see this game going Penn State’s way. Everyone has been able to run right at Nebraska this year. Good luck with Silas Redd, Blackshirts. He’s only having one of the best campaigns of any Big 10 tailback this season, often carrying the Nits offense, and now going up against a Nebraska defense that allows 160.8 rushing yards a game. Meanwhile, the Huskers offense often stagnates, has a maddeningly inconsistent boom or bust rushing attack and is always under the threat of being betrayed once or twice from the small town high school looking passes of Tyler Martinez. All that seems to play into the hands of a Penn State defense thats ranked third in the country in defensive efficiency.

But I don’t think Penn State is that great. I still feel they wont win a game the rest of the regular season. If a Book would give me odds on that, consider me in line at the window. We know they will waste precious possessions with the Robert Bolden experiment. We know that it wont truly be all that much better with Matt McGloin, save for an assortment of nice looking plays down field. We know he’ll kill them once or twice with a mistake. We know it wont take a lot of points to beat them. In the four games on their schedule against teams that currently have a winning record, the Nits averaged just 12 points a game. I can bag on the Husker’s non vintage stop unit all day, but if Iowa and Temple can hold Penn State to 13 and 14 points respectively on this same field, then so to can the Huskers. The Martinez led offense might not look pretty, but its generally been able to put points on everybody its played. Their 34, 24 and 51 point outbursts against Ohio State, Michigan State and Washington are better than anything the Penn State offense has shown this season. You could probably add the 42 they put up against Fresno on that list. Statistically, they’re the 30th ranked team in offensive efficiency and have the 13th best rushing attack in the land. They are more than capable of overcoming the good PSU defense and nabbing the win in the end.  Dont be surprised if freshmen Ameer Abdullah stakes his claim to player of the game by setting Nebraska up a few times with key field position with some nice gallops in the return game.

I’m still a little leery of laying the road chalk. That Northwestern outcome a week ago leaves a bad taste in my mouth regarding ’Brasker.  I never like betting against teams in their final home game, and who knows what kind of emotion Penn State will play with?  I do expect this game could go all the way to the final gun, and I generally like to have the points of the underdog in those instances. But I dont really feel like cheering for Penn State either, but I am still going to be able to  enjoy a good, old fashioned looking Big 10 defensive slugfest. This has 17-13 written all over it.  I will be waiting to see what the Silas Redd rushing props are, however. I’ve enjoyed watching him tote the football this year and he should go over the 100-yard mark against this defense with some ease. I see at least 130 yards.

The Pick: Nebraska -3

Silas Redd: Over 110.5 rushing yards Read more »

MAC Chronicles: A Tuesday Night Football Double Shot

November 8, 2011
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After an exciting first week of November, the Mid American Conference takes center stage again during the midweek schedule of college football games with four contests spread out over the next three nights. The divisional leader boards as well as bowl possibilities are up for grabs in each game. The league is guaranteed three bowls spots (The Potato, Pizza Pizza and Go Daddy Bowls…..and, yes, those are actual bowl contests. I didnt make those up), and could get as many as 5 teams invited to bowl games if other leagues can not fill their contractual slots. With seven teams sitting at either 6-3 or 5-4 and two teams at 4-5 that more or less control their own fate for their respective division titles, there are lojgams in the race for the postseason and every league game seems to be a factor in those chases. Lets take a look at the two games going on tonight. Who loves Tuesday Night Football? We do, yo.

Northern Illinois at Bowling Green, Lines, NIU -5.5, O/U 65.5……I really dont think the Huskies are as elite as last year’s outfit that steamrolled through the MAC regular season and trounced Fresno State in a bowl game. But, here they are, in the MAC West Driver’s Seat and in line for a repeat appearance in the MAC Championship. As we saw a week ago against Toledo, they can do whatever they want on offense. Chandler Harnish is the straw that stirs the Huskies drink on offense. He’s a 4-year starter at QB, a legit dual threat and a year after collecting 3,366 total yards and 28 combined touchdowns, he’s on pace for even better numbers this season. He’s almost surpassed his rushing totals from a year ago as the Huskies have replaced factor back Chad Spann by running the QB more, especially in their biggest games of the year. In wins over Western Michigan and Toledo that have put the Huskies in first place, Harnish ran for an average of 181 yards, to go along with 200 yards passing in each game as the Huskies put up 51 and 63 points. The Huskies are a point machine, averaging over 45 points per game in conference play. The problem with Northern has been their defense. Dont forget, they did allow 60 points in regulation a week ago in their win over the Rockets. As of now, they’re 119th out of 120 in defensive efficiency. Bowling Green has more than enough weapons to take advantage of a defesnse thats among the worst in the country in giving up available yards, big plays and long drives. QB Matt Schilz averages 255 yards a game through the air and has tossed 19 scores. He’s got a pair of dangerous targets in Kamar Jorden and Euguene Cooper, both have more than 50 catches and tailback Anthon Samueal averages 97.3 yards per game and almost six yards per carry. There is no way the NIU defense that we’ve seen the first two months of the season will throttle this offense. BG will land their haymakers.

The Falcons are a tricky team to figure out. They have wins over Miami and Temple and a tight, spread covering loss to Toledo. So, they’ve been at their best when playing the top tier of the MAC. But, then they drop a 27-15 to woeful Kent State.  Because of some of those wins the Falcons, despite their 4-5 record, have a legit road map to the league finals. Right now the East is such a cluster, with five teams separated by a game in the standings. If the Falcons win out, they will add a win and tiebreaker over Ohio to go with those Temple and Miami scalps. If they then can get another Miami loss along the way, then they would be the East Champs. Of course, the postseason line is a thin one in the MAC. Any more losses for BGSU and the best they could finish is 6-6 and 6-6 MAC teams never get bowl invites. So Bowling Green’s entire postseason hopes are on the line tonight.

Western Michigan at Toledo. Lines, Toledo -12, O/U 68.5……..One side firmly in Bowling Green’s corner tonight are the Toledo Rockets. Rivals by birth, but allies tonight by circumstance. The Rockets sit tied with NIU for the West lead, but lose out on the tiebreaker in the wake of their loss to the Huskies one week ago. Between Coach Tim Beckman’s poor clock management and the Rockets improved defense totally collapsing against NIU there was plenty to be disappointed a week ago. This is the most talented team in the MAC, but now need to win out and get at least one NIU loss to qualify for the league title game. The start of November was supposed to be a crowning for the Rockets en route to getting back to the MAC Title Game after a 5-year absence. But the defensive breakdowns a week ago have ruined the party. Now the 93rd ranked passing defense in the land faces an interesting challenge with Western Michigan and their gunslinging QB Alex Carder. With Carder pulling the trigger, the Broncos have the 17th ranked passing attack in the land at 292.2 yards per game. Carder has had four games of more than 300 passing yards. In Jordan White, he has one of the more dangerous receivers in the country. White had had five 100-yard games this year and has already passed the 1,000-yard mark for the season. Between he and Toledo’s Eric Page, we’ve some high profile wideouts on display in this game. Dont be surprised if they play a game of ‘anything you can do, I can do better’ as these offenses battle it out.  Western still harbors flickering West Division hopes. They need to win out and somehow see NIU lose twice down the stretch. But, if they add a few more wins, including tonight, Western could return to the postseason and snare a bowl invite for the first time since 2008. The question for Toledo is can they rebound on defense and will the offense stall in the second quarter like it did a week ago when the Rockets changed QBs. They’ve been rotating Austin Danton and Terrance Owens most of the season, but the offense went awry a week ago with Owens in the game. In another must-win showdown, does Owens see the field as much and can he perform any better when he does? The Broncos have major issues stopping the run. Sounds like a great game for Toledo’s three-headed tailback monster of Adonis Thomas, David Fluellen and Morgan Williams. From what I’ve seen Thomas is the best of the bunch and after missing time earlier in the year with injury is coming off his best game of the season with 160 yards last week against NIU.

What will happen? Will anybody’s defense step up? Thats doubtful. Taking both overs look like good bets. Although thats still a lot of points. If we even get a quarter of competent defensive play, those totals will be hard to tilt. I dont expect anybody to stop anybody rushing attack. These are four of the worst rushing defenses in the country. The thing is all four of these teams have capable to great quarterbacks and they all have wideout targets that can do damage. I feel that there might be a bit more defense played in the Toledo/Western game, but not that much. And, as a result, we’re going heavy on the props. Here are four that we are thinking about right now. We’ll confirm actual play later today via the JCB Twitter. Read more »

Three to Watch: Big 12 Edition

November 4, 2011
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Three to Watch is purposely avoiding the Tigers and Elephants in the room when it comes to the big game this week and so we venture to the SEC’s minor league system, the Big 12, to check out a few games of interest. So let’s start with the best game as Kansas travels to Iowa State. Wait, nope.

Kansas State @ Oklahoma State, 8:00 ABC- So this is the match-up ESPN/ABC is putting up against the LSU-Bama game. They’ve pretty much conceded ratings defeat though, with constant LSU-Bama recruiting videos features on the WWL all week. Still, this game has serious BCS implications as well. In fact, Oklahoma State is almost certain to jump into the top two with a win. While the Pokes might be feeling some pressure, KSU will have to deal with the post-traumatic symptoms lingering from last week’s 58-17 beatdown delivered by the Sooners.

Kansas State’s suspect defense couldn’t deal with Oklahoma’s talent last week and they don’t figure to be able to deal with OSU’s this Saturday. Justin Blackmon, Brandon Weeden, and Joseph Randle combine to lead the nation’s second best scoring offense. Weeden and Blackmon have hooked up for 10 scores on the season, while Randle has rushed for four touchdowns in each of his last two games and sixteen on the year. Those are crazy numbers. To keep up, KSU is going to try and keep those cats off the field by controlling the pace with their ground game. The Wildcats sport the 20th best run game in the country, averaging about 210 yards per game, while the Cowboys have the 84th best rush defense. Of course, teams don’t have a lot of time to run the ball when they are down three scores. Last week against the Sooners, the Wildcats didn’t abandon the run despite the deficit, running 43 times against 16 pass attempts. QB Collin Klein and RB John Hubert will likely see some more success against the Pokes than they did the Sooners, but I doubt they’ll be able to keep up.

Texas A&M @ Oklahoma, 3:30 ABC/ESPN2 mirror- The afternoon tilt will feature two of the top ten teams in the country in terms of total offense and two great QBs with OU’s Landry Jones and A&M’s Ryan Tannehill. What was supposed to be a banner season for Texas A&M has turned into an ominous one with three extremely close losses to Oklahoma State, Arkansas, and Missouri. A lot can be salvaged with a second straight win over Oklahoma, but the Sooners are holding out hope for a Big 12 championship and looking to rectify a home lost for the first time in about 40 games.

One factor of note for the Sooners will be the absence of running back Dominique Whaley, who is lost for the season after an injury early in last week’s game. Running backs Roy Finch, Brennan Clay, and Brandon Williams will likely share the load until one establishes himself as a clear starter. Meanwhile, Jones shouldn’t have much trouble passing against the Aggies 120th rated pass defense. Yes, that’s last in FBS. Oklahoma’s #2 rated pass offense approves. Ryan Broyles and Kenny Stills might want to stow some chairs in the end zones.   The Aggies have enough firepower to give a fair fight in a shootout. Tannehill will benefit as receiver Jeff Fuller continues to get healthy, while running back Cyrus Gray is looking to turn in his first dominant performance of the season.  I like Oklahoma to win this high scoring game.

Texas Tech at Texas, Noon FX- Every week when I see a game is on FX go through the same cycle. “Why is a game on FOX this week? Oh, FX. Wait, why does FX have a game on instead of an X-Men movie? OMG GUS JOHNSON! HA HAAAA!” Much like Missouri-Texas A&M in this time slot last week, we have a good Big 12 game to keep an eye on as we jump into another Saturday. Texas Tech followed up its monumental upset win at Oklahoma with a true bed-shitting against Iowa State in Lubbock that saw them lost by 34, while Texas took back-to-back losses against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and will try to get some momentum going into another tough stretch. Read more »

MAC Chronicles: Let The East Showdowns Begin

November 2, 2011
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Tonight the MAC focus shifts to the top of the East Division. Four teams have at least two wins and two losses and are within a game from each other for first place: Temple, Miami, Bowling Green and Ohio. Two of those clubs, Temple and Ohio play tonight in southeastern Ohio in Athens. And  the game wont come close to resembling what we saw last night when Northern topped Toledo to take control of the West. The Rockets and Huskies combined for 123 in points–in regulation–with both teams hitting the 60-point mark. Tonight, when the Owls and Bobcats play, dont be surprised if both teams fail to surpass 20 points. This ought to be the defensive doppleganger to last night’s West Division showdown. Both teams have stars on offense to lean on, but neither club has it going on on that side of the ball like the teams from last night. And more importantly, both squads carry arguably the two best defenses in the conference.  Temple is second in the nation in scoring defense and rank in the top-10 nationally in total defense, rushing defense and pass defense. Ohio’s numbers arent as guady, but they allow just 20.4 points per game, have a pass defense in the top third of the country, a rush defense in the top-quarter and a total defense in the top-20. These teams might have to play three times before they hit the combined 123 points scored in last night’s game. Here are some keys to the game

Will Bernard Pierce go nuts? Pierce is the Temple stud tailback. He’s an NFL runningback toiling in the MAC. Pierce isnt just a big part of the Temple offense, he is the Temple offense. I dont know what they would do without him. They get below average QB play with two different people they play at the position, have the 112th ranked passing offense and just lack vertical threats. But, they have Pierce, whose legs have given Temple the 9th best rushing offense in the land. He averages 118.5 yards per game, has an astonishing 18 touchdowns this year and has gone for more than 6.2 yards per carry in five different games this season. He’s toppped the century mark in six of eight games this year and has hit that benchmark in 13 of his last 19 conference games. Ohio is 28th in the land in rushing defense. They’ve only allowed two backs to go 100 yards this season, but both times did so in defeat to Akron and Buffalo. If they can bottle up Pierce somehow and force the Owls to pass, then a major edge goes to the Bobcats. One of the worst passing offenses in the land would be going up a secondary with three players in the top-10 of the league in passes defended. Look for Temple to hammer with Pierce for at least two dozen carries. If he’s hovering around 4 yards per carry, OU will have a chance. If he’s up around 6 yards per carry, then its going to be a long day for the Bobcats.

Can LaVonn Brazill hit a home run? Ohio’s offense counters with their own big play guy in flanker Brazill. After missing most of last year with an injury, Brazill is back for a fifth season in Athens and is responding with a career year. He has 37 catches for 15.5 yards per pop. He has three 100-yard games in his last four starts and has snared a touchdown pass in every game since the opener. Three games in a row he’s found paydirt from at least 67 yards, so he’s got his finger on the big play, touchdown button. The prop for longest TD scored in tonight’s game is just 43.5 yards. With Brazill on the field, that could go over on any play snapped from their side of the field. Ohio’s passing game is pretty sharp. Tyler Tettleton has been more the solid as triggerman, completing just shy of 65-percent of his passes with a 17-5 TD/INT ratio. Expect him to get the ball into the hands of as many as eight different targets. Two of those wideouts in addition to Brazill that average more than 14 yards per catch, so they can be a dangerous passing attack. In what is expected to be a defensive battle can Brazill and cohorts find a way to go vertical and stretch the field with the big play in the passing game?

Speaking of defense, the Temple stop unit is the best in the MAC. With all due respect to Pierce, they have a tougher chore going up against the balance, varied OU offense than the other way around. Temple had to replace their top five tacklers from a year ago, but havent skipped a beat defensively. Their meal ticket comes from the intimidating presence off the edge from OLD Tamir Whitehead and DE Adrian Robinson. They have combined for 8 sackss and 18 TFLs already this year. Stephen Johnson is a tackle machine at MLB and thir secondary goes 6-7 deep with guys who can step in and make plays. The whole defense is pretty deep with 18 different plays registering at least a TFL this season. Toledo managed to score 36 points, but nobody else has put more than 14 points on the board against the Owls, and that Penn State denting the scoreboard for 14 points. Its going to be tough sledding for Ohio.

Temple is 23-13 in MAC play since the start of the 2007 season. Thats pretty good considering how dormant of a program this had been. However, the Owls are just 1-3 against Ohio in the span. The Bobcats have been a thorn in Temple’s side, so much so that the last two years November losses to OU kept Temple from playing in the MAC Title Game. You can make a case this has been the best team in the MAC for more than two years running, but they’ve never been able to close the deal on even a division title. Their annual bugaboo Ohio comes calling tonight. Can they overcome their demons? They have too or they will lose another tiebreak. BGSU and Miami are the other four teams in the thick of this race and should Temple fail to get by the Bobcats again, they will fall to 0-2 against those competitors after last month’s 13-10 loss to BG. For Ohio, this is this first game against all those challengers, so this is the start of a November jaunt that will make or break their season. Read more »

MAC Chronicles: West Race Up For Grabs In Glass Bowl

November 1, 2011
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Happy November, everybody! The best part of the month? Clearly the explosion of mid-week Mid American Conference college football games. I know traditionalists  bristle at all these mid week games, but I love it, especially when it comes to the MAC. These games would drown in the middle of a full Saturday of games. Nobody would watch, there arent even enough channels to show them. Instead, we get virtually the entire second half of the whole MAC schedule playing out in primetime somewhere on the ESPN family during the middle of the week. MAC Football or CSI Whatever City? I choose MAC Football every time. Sorry, Horatio. The MAC annually gives us two exciting division races each season, in addition to the chase for anywhere between 3-5 bowl bids, so expect a lot of mid-major football drama playing out during the week. Its the perfect way to whet your appetite for the last four full Saturdays of the season.

We plan on being at the forefront of these MAC battles, doing our best to chronicle, observe and, of course, handicap these games. There are plenty of storylines and players we’re eager to see get some share of the spotlight they deserve. We’ll hit those ideas as we go along. Tonight, however, the focus is on one of the marquee MAC games of the year when Northern Illinois invades northwest Ohio to take on Toledo in the Glass Bowl. 

First place in the MAC West is on the line and the winner tonight will be sitting pretty in the driver’s seat for one the spots in next month’s MAC Title Game at Ford Field.  The game is a rematch from almost exactly one year ago when the stakes were almost exactly the same. The Huskies flat drubbed Toledo, opening up a 35-0 lead en route to a 65-35 win over the Rockets. Its Toledo’s only MAC loss in its last 12 starts.

A Toledo win all but seals the deal. They would be two games clear of Northern, head-to-head tiebreaker in hand, with three to play. They still have Western Michigan ahead, but they would be two games ahead of WMU as well with a win tonight. Eastern, of all teams, would remain a game back, but the Rockets already own a win and tiebreaker over the Eagles. The Rockets would need to lose at least two of their final three games to derail their division hopes should they tuck this game away. A Huskies win creates a three-way tie at the top between themselves, Toledo and Eastern. And as long as Northern can keep pace with Toledo the rest of the month, the division and return trip to the league title game would be all theirs.

So, those are the stakes, but who takes this game? I understand that a Toledo win would require a more than 5-touchdown reversal of fortunes from the last time these teams swapped helmet paint, but I think the Rockets not only win this game, but do so by more than a touchdown, beating the current Vegas spread on the contest. Here’s why. Read more »