College Football

Final Football Saturday, Nooners

December 3, 2011
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We’ve reached the final weekend of the college football season and a one Munchie Legaux holds in his hands the fate of an Orange Bowl bid. He’s the substitute QB of the Cincy Bearcats, and the redshirt freshman will be trying to lead his team to its third BCS Bowl in four years. He’s been filling in for injured Zach Collaros. The results have been mixed. He was really good in a close loss to West Virginia. He was terrible against in a shellacking against Rutgers, BUT THE SCARLET KNIGHTS HAVE #1 FEI DEFENSE SO MAYBE THATS OK.  Last week, he was a more than fine passer as the Bearcats trounced Syracuse. Legaux flirted with Michigan for awhile. He held a Wolverine offer and Fred Jackson was his recruiter. He was the 12th rated dual threat QB in the 2010 class, but with Devin Gardner already in the fold for Michigan in that class and the Robinson/Forcier depth chart already in place, the Wolverines probably wanted him more as an athlete than an QB explicity. Legaux eventually parsed his offer list towards schools where the 3-star recruit would be more likely to have an on field impact. But, he was part of the Michigan recruiting landscape for a while and with that kind of name you never forget him, so I’ve been tracking his game ever since I realized he was taking over the position for the Bearcats. Its like finding an old camp crush on facebook. No Creeper. So, for this college football junkie his sudden thrust into the BCS chase has added a pocket of charm to the closing kick of the season. I think he’ll be more than alright today for Cincy against UConn. The Bearcats are heavy 10-point chalk and should cruise to this win, triggering whatever computer formula is needed to break the eventual three way tie between Cincy, WVA and Louisville for the Orange Bowl berth.

But its kind of a bummer of a day, isnt it? Not only is it the final Saturday, but this weekend, despite all the big bowl berths on the line, doesnt seem to have any playoff juice. Every week is supposed to be an elimination week, the powers that be tout, with every week being a playoff. But nothing that really happens today will impact the national title chase. Its Week 17 of the NFL gone awry. Its a bad development for any college football season to have a worthless weekend like this in the title chase and the system that alleges to be getting it right so long as the two best teams meet in the end.

But, hey, its not all bad. Some major bowl bids are on the line. Look at tonight. Rose, Fiesta and Orange Bowl bids in the Michigan St/Wisconsin, Oklahoma/Oklahoma St and Virginia Tech/Clemson games. The loser in all is facing a major fall in the bowl pecking order. It doesnt take much a search to find bowl projections that forecast an MSU and Oklahoma losses today, dropping State to the Insight and the Sooners to the Alamo. You’re either playing in a marquee bowl with the whole country watching or get lost in everybody’s else holiday shuffles in late December. At least one of these losers tonight will end up as the season’s disinterested big bowl favorite that losses outright. My guess is that its Clemson.

Of course, we’ll have picks on those games. We’re still debating the finer points and the amounts. So, look out for those later in the day via the JCB Twitter. Dont be surprised if we fire out a play or two or three under the FCS PLayoffs unmbrella. There are eight quarterfinal games and we’re leaning hard on a play or two. Dont look at us the wrong way if something pops up on the D2 or D3 Tourney Board either. Its out job, right? For now, here are some picks for the nooner games.

Southern Miss +14 over Houston…..Yes, the Cougs look like a machine. Yes, they have a Sugar Bowl bid within their grasp. But the Conference USA Championship Game has always tilted towards the underdog and away from the team that comes into the game with the lights out, pinball offense. I’ll take the two touchdown headstart with a Southern Miss outfit that can score, score, score as well, but also isnt going to be totally out athleted the way most of the unwashed masses of this midmjaor league are when facing Houston. Read more »

Friday Night Football: Pac-12, MAC Championship Games

December 2, 2011
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This Pac-12 Championship Game between Oregon and UCLA  is ridiculous. Washington State hiring Mike Leach is miles more exciting than this actual game. I love John Brandon’s suggestion at Grantland that it would be more fun just watching the Ducks scrimmage and practice against each other. Couldnt agree more and, frankly, their spring game is must-see TV every year, so hopefully ESPN will broadcast it again like they did a year ago. But, good grief, this game with UCLA is atrocious. I’ve got some more radical ideas than Brandon.  I say screw USC’s probation. We’re running out of college football and providing us fans with better games is more important than punishing kids who had nothing to do with the Trojans transgesssions from eight years ago. I want to see a USC/Oregon rematch. That game a few weeks ago was off the hook. Just give Oregon the auto BCS bid, but let USC in this game to play for all the Pac-12 marbles. Or go a step further. Sorry, UCLA, but you flat out stink. Move Boise or Houston into this game instead of their respective, expected blowouts tomorrow. If they win, they get a BCS Bid to the Rose Bowl or something. Alabama isnt doing anything but sitting on their asses and backing into the national title game without breaking a sweat since their loss to LSU. Have the Tide play the Ducks tonight. If they fare as well as LSU did back in September against Oregon, then they will have earned a rematch with the Tigers for the National Championship. Anything would be better than forcing us to watch this UCLA execution tonight. The worst part about it is, the Bruins have already canned coach Rick Neuheisel, so we cant even have props on when they’ll fire him. The Ducks have to win this game tonight or else it would kill the Pac-12′s reputation.

 The Ducks and Bruins have played some classic games over the years, but this wont be one of them. Despite playing the game in Eugene, there really isnt a lot of buzz, it might not be a sellout and tickets are going on the cheap. The only drama in this game is will the Ducks hit the Over/Under total of 66 by virtue of their score alone. I give them a great chance at doing that. They’ve only done that once this year, when they dropped 69 on Nevada, but the Over has hit in 8 of 12 Oregon games this year, thanks to a Duck offense thats exceeded 40 points nine times. They scored more than 50 against crappy league rival Arizona and excellent league rival Stanford. More than a quarter of their drives average 10 yards per play and more than half their drives extend beyond the 30-yard line of enemy territory. I expect the Ducks to exceed both those percentages this evening.  I dont see how they dont tilt the 50 mark if they’re on their A-game. But who knows? This game is going to be such a blowout, a controlled scrimmage really, a farce of a conference championship game. Oregon can name their score. What if Chipperson Kelly decided 45-14 is just enough. The Ducks wont cover, nor will the Over. This is Championship Weekend, fer gawds sake, why do we have a SEC vs Sun Belt team kind of point spread. Ridiculous. I cant play either side. I might have to number crunch some player props this afternoon and maybe make a play there.

Meanwhile, the exciting game of the night will be played in Detroit when Northern Illinois takes on Ohio U for the MAC Championship. You have to think that one of these years, it will eventually be Northern Illinois’ year. I dont think you can find a team in any FBS league that has achieved as much in the last decade or so without winning a league championship. Despite churning out 8, 9 and 10 win seasons, the Huskies have yet to sit atop the MAC at the end of the season. For years, they had trouble getting by Toledo in the division. Then as the Rockets faded in the final years of the Tom Amstutz Era, there was always some other game that tripped NIU up. They have made two MAC Title Games in recent years, but both times lost as heavy favorites, once to Akron on a long pass play to end the game and a year ago to Miami as 2-touchdown chalk. Is this finally their year?  Standing in their way is a Bobcat team thats become a solid, winning program under Frank Solich. After years of being a cellar dweller, Ohio has been bowling now in four of Solich’s six seasons. They’ve also made two previous MAC Title games, losing to CMU and their great QB Dan LeFeveur in 2006 and 2009, failing to score more than 10 points in each game. These squads have played in a total of four total championship games since 2003, but are 0-4. Somebody will be breaking through tonight, but who?

Whoever does breakthrough will do it on the basis of offense. This is the MAC, after all, so defense is very, very optional. The Over/Under total is 71 and both team Over/Under props are 37.5 for NIU and 33.5 for Ohio. Over players need the typical MAC fireworks this evening. For the Huskies, its all about the genius of Chad Harnish. He’s one of the best dual threat QBs in the land. He’s passed for 2,692 yards and rushed for 1,355 yards. Thats over 4,000 total yards. He’s passed for more than 200 and run for more than 100 in five of the last six games as Northern overcame a sluggish start to the season to win the MAC West with an electric offense down the stretch. Ohio’s offense is triggered by great QB too, but its the more traditional pocket passer Tyler Tettleton pulling the strings. In his first year as a starter, he’s been the difference in what was a muddled MAC East race. He’s completed 64 percent of his passed and tossed 26 TDs to just 7 picks. He’s got some legs, but not nearly like Harnish. He did rush for over 500 yards, so he’s got some skills. The big play man in this offense is WR LaVon Brazil. He’s just shy of 1,00o yards for the season and has five 100-yard games in MAC play this year.

Northern is an elite midmajor offense. They are pretty much among the national leaders of every relevant stat. Do you want explosive drives? The Huskies are 7th in drives that average 10 yards or more. Do you want methodical, long drives? Northern is 11th in drives of 10 or more plays. Do you want an offense that gobbles up yards like its their job? Northern is 12th in the land in available yards earned. They’re 9th in total yards, 8th in rushing yards and 11th in scoring. Ohio’s offense might look as statistically guady, but its on the fringe of the top-quarter of the country in those advanced metric stats and they’re 16th in total yards, 20th in rushing yards and 35th in scoring. The major difference is Ohio has significantly better defensive numbers. Northern basically has been replacing their entire defensive unit from a year ago and it showed, especially during the turbulent first half of their season. Read more »

Friday Football! Early Picks!

November 25, 2011
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Whoa. Got some early kicks today. Here’s the part of today’s card that covers these upcoming 11 am kicks.

Louisville +5 over USF…..Let me get this straight? You’re willing to give me more than a field goal with the first place team against a team mired in last place who hasnt really played good football since the summer? Sold. I never fear home field in Big East and give me the points with the team eyeing a BCS Bowl Bid over the struggling .500 outfit.

Chad Harnish, Total Rushing Yards, Over 101.5………..He’ll soar over this. This is an elite NIU offense and he runs the whole show. He’ll get about  15-20 carries and enough will burst over 15 yards that his per carry average will be around 8.0. He’s had at least 133 yards in each of the last three games as the Huskies seized control of the MAC West and emerged as the league’s best team. A Ron English D trying to check a running QB? Give me the Over on that QB’s stats, please.

Northern Illinois, Total Team Points, Over 41.5……Personally, I feel the Huskies blow the doors off of EMU, but I just cant trust that defense laying close to three touchdowns. But, I also dont feel the Eagles will slow this Huskie outfit down. Northern has gone over the 40-point mark in 11 of its last 16 MAC games. I like their chances here to tilt that number again and consider this an alternative play because I am too wimpy to lay the big number. This has 45-24 written all over it, although I wouldnt be shocked if NIU was closer to 60 points than 40.

NIU/EMU Over 63.5…..what the hell? Its the MAC. I’m too afraid to lay the chalk, but have no trouble plunking down on a QB rushing prop, a team scoring total and the game total. I might have a problem. We’ll see. 50/50

All for One Unit

NIU?

Week 13 First Looks: LSU/Arky, Bama/Auburn

November 21, 2011
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After the biggest shakedown weekend of the season, we’re set up for a fantastic final full regular season set of the college football season. Five outright division title games. Who said there were no FBS playoff games? Seven divisions remain undecided in advance of the six FBS conference championship games next weekend. Stanford and Michigan host Notre Dame and Ohio State with possible BCS At Large bids on the line. And, of course, its rivalry week, so there will be a lot of people playing for hatred and pride. That always makes great college football drama.

But will there be actual drama? Thats an uncertainty. If we just focus on the five de facto division title games and the Stanford, Alabama and Michigan contests with various national BCS implications, we dont see a lot of games with tight pointspreads. Oddsmakers are setting the bar at blowout for a lot of these contests. Houston laying 3.5 at Tulsa in the CUSA West Championship is the smallest line. Most of the others are at least a touchdown with four being set at at least two touchdowns. Here’s a rundown of the odds in those division title games and BCS at large relevant games.

Houston -3.5 at Tulsa

Arkansas +13.5 at LSU

Ohio State +7.5 at Michigan

Virginia Tech -5.5 at Virginia Read more »

Week 11 Saturday: Now For The Rest Of The Afternoon Card

November 12, 2011
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We are not messing around today. We havent had the greatest of seasons, but we have at least been on the uptick the last couple of weeks. So today, we’re going crazy across the board. The picks for the Big 10 Conference slate live here. We’re on those games all for one unit. But, we’ve got a a handful of more nooners and really what amounts to an entire card of picks during the 3:30 window. So, lets get at it.

7-Point Teaser: WVA +10.5/OSU -0.5 x 1…….I hinted at it in the Big 10 post, but you just knew that OSU -7.5 line was going to be just too tempting for me to avoid teasing that down to a pick. It was a matter of finding just the right nooner date for it. How about a risky soiree with the up and down ‘Neers? I dont think this regional rivalry is going to get out of hand today. I’m a little surprised WVA wasnt the betting favorite. They ought to be able to come clean within double digits of the mighty Bearcats. I really dont like cheering for either WVA or OSU. I’m hoping crossing party lines will be good karma.

Texas -2 over Missouri x 2…..I dont fear the road chalk here. I mean, the stadium in Columbia will only be 80-percent full and at least one third of those fans will be wearing burnt orange. People seem to be assuming Missouri is having a good season, while Texas remains the questionable ass of last year. Um, no. The Tigers arent very good, despite the emergence of QB James Franklin. As for the Horns, they’ve rebounded nicely from not just last season, but also from that consecutive whoopings a month ago by the Sooners and the Pokes. They’re more talented anyway that the Tigers and they’re playing a whole lot better, too. Look for the stable of Horn backs to have a huge combined day, leading Texas to a rugged, double digit win.

Kansas State +5 over Texas AM x 3……..This pick is equal parts liking this Kansas State squad and not liking the typically choking dogs Aggies. With a whole heap of Colin Klein kicking ass, running and throwing all over the place on this week GiG ‘Em D. He’s become one of  my favorite players to watch this season and thi KSU squad is highly underrated still. Sure, they are not top-10 after dropping back to back weeks against Okie St and OU, but I saw enough earlier in the year and in six of the eight quarters against the Pokes and Sooners to feel this is the third best team in the league. You want to give me points with them at home against the flakiest, most unreliable team in the conference? Yes, please. 

Miami +9 over Florida State x 2……..On a day that Miami and Florida State play each other, the game of the day in the ACC takes place between Wake Forest an Clemson where the Coastal Division Title is on the line. This classic rivalry upstaged by a Wake Forest game? Something tells me this wasnt in the ACC’s blueprint when they annexed South Florida, but it’s the reality of the day. If you’re going to give me more than a touchdown in any Miami/Florida State game, I am buying. My recollection of this series is that its always tight and the unexpected happens. Indeed, the Underdog has won this game outright 8 of the last 10 years. Jacory Harris bas been, uh, man, actually good this year. Lamar Miller is a weapon. The Canes have more than enough to turn this into another great Cane/Nole battle, regardless of the relatively low stakes and profile this game has this season.

Navy +9 over Southern Methodist x 1…....Sometimes I cant help myself. I have an unabashed Navy bias and the day after Veteran’s Day, I am obliged to pull the trigger on my favorite Service Academy Football team. Always a JCB favorite team, its a surprise we’re nearing mid-November and we havent won a single play yet on the Middies. We lost on them in back to back weeks to start October against Air Force and Southern Miss, didnt like what we saw and broke up with them for a while. We didnt miss anything in our sojourn apart, but I am jumping back on them here because they’re back in the role I like them in best, decent sized underdogs against a mid-major team where the talent gap really isnt that large. Navy can play with SMU. They can get their tricky option humming. Expect a track meet, but Navy will meet the Ponies point for point. Navy actually has to win or they become ineligible for a bowl, stopping an 8-year postseason streak. They need to win out to get a bowl bid, but they’ll be favored against San Jose and Army in their final two after today. If you’re a 6-4 team in a mid major right now, you’re pulling for SMU to open up another bowl spot for you. Read more »