College Football

USC is going to beat Hawai’i. It’s not going to be close. In fact, it’s probably going to be insultingly lopsided. In last year’s home opener against Western Kentucky University, then-freshminted Vols coach Lane Kiffin (HAHA SECONDARY VIOLATION KIFFYKINS HAHA) melted the scoreboard en route to a 63-7 decision. He had his starter, Crompton, throwing for touchdowns in the fourth quarter despite being up by thirty-five against a team that had managed a single score in the previous three quarters. Going into his first season with Tennessee with whispers about his competence nearly outshining the band’s rendition of “Rocky Top,” Kiffin looked to have his first result make the skeptics pipe down. (A close loss to UCLA just a bit later made the effort fruitless, and in hindsight, a little cruel). So while there’s already an established history between these two teams—Hawai’i has never once beaten USC, and in fact has never come within four touchdowns of doing so (avg series score: 52-15 USC)—there’s also a clear precedent, when it comes to Kiffin: if it’s September, he will not take his boot off your neck.

The question we pose this game, then, isn’t “Who’s going to win?” Nor ought we wonder, “And by how much?” Since the outcome of this game is competitively irrelevant, with one team looking for style points and another for a paycheck, this preview proposes instead to answer, at length the following question: “Of what—if of anything—can this game serve as an indicator?” While I don’t think it can tell us anything we don’t already know about the relative strengths of either team competing in it, I do think that this matchup can tell us something about each team independently. So, without further ado, what it all means:

Hawai’i defense or lack thereof

Hawai’i fielded one of the worst defenses in the country last year. In nearly every major statistical category—scoring (#90), rushing (#107), total (#91), pass efficiency defense (#7 in the WAC with opponents’ QBs averaging a 144.2 pEFF rating)—it stunk up the joint. Only its #33 passing defense, at 201 yards surrendered per game, looked respectable. Remember, however, that Eastern Michigan had the best statistical pass defense in the country; if you could run on them to the tune of picking up a deuce a game, and you were out ahead by the end of the first quarter, why even bother with a pass? Regardless of how things look for Hawai’i’s defense in general, one ought to be comforted by the return of the entire defensive backfield—including all four positions’ backups. Matt Barkley will undoubtedly shred it before he is taken out of the game, but it will be interesting to see how well this experienced group holds up against him. More interesting, however, will be seeing how the underclassmen backups perform against his replacements, and against the younger receivers who step in after RoJo & co. are put on the pine. Even more compelling will be the degree to which the Trojans’ short passing and running games are responded to by the green linebacking corps. With no returning starters at any of the three LB positions, and both a sophomore and a true freshman in the two-deep, we should see a number of players grow up quite quickly trying to contain things just off the line of scrimmage. I suspect that Paipai Falemalu (16 T, 2 S in 12 spot-duty performances as a substitute DE last year) will come in and emerge as the primary playmaker behind the defensive line, with occasional starter and senior Mana Lolatai locking down the Mac position that has been lacking an enforcer-type to fill it since Solomon Elimimian graduated after 2008. I do not anticipate a steller performance on the day from the LB corps, but I do think that with enough PT to go around, and a chance for the older players to prove themselves against skill players who will be superior to almost all they will conceivably face for the rest of the season, what we WILL get from the LB corps is enough to go on when it comes to determining starting lineups. Defensive propositions: look for the defense to intercept one ball in the second half, to surrender 500 yards of total offense with 225 of them coming on the ground, but to provide its backups at CB, DT, and S with ample playing time after USC’s starters go out. Read more »