Northwestern +10 over Texas A/M x2……..Here’s what we know about Northwestern. Dan Persa is a holy lock to complete 3/4s of his passes. He re-established himself as a legit passer in the Big 10 after his Achilles injury. But he cant run worth a lick anymore a year after avereaging 51 yards per game on the ground with nine rushing scores. Jeremy Ebert is a really good threat at flanker whose aprt to gobble up a bunch of catches or explode for a load of yards, but rarely both. For the umpteenth year in a row, they have zero tailback theat. But their offense continues to hum along, specializing in drives with a lot of snaps and regularily picking their way down the field and into scoring range. They settle for field goals way too much and would probably win a couple games more a year if they would just adopt a hard line, four down territory strategy once they crossed midfield. Their defense pushes the boundary of bend, but dont break limits. They give up a ton of fourth quarter points. When one of your fantasy players goes up against them, you’re smiling as they given up 14 combined 100 yard rushing or receiving games with 18 scores between those players. This defense, ranked 90th nationally in rushing yards allowed, held Fitzgerald Toussaint of Michigan to 25 yards on 15 carries, good enough to be nominated one of the Big 10′s biggest box score mysteries of the season.

But, hey, otherwise everything was great with the Purple this year. I think its safe to say this uneven season was a bit of a disappointment for Northwestern, but they still earned their fourth bowl game in a row, extending a record streak for the program. And despite those flaws, we’re still in line this morning with them and the +10 for this nooner.  Here’s why.

Would you want to lay ten points with the Aggies 112th ranked pass defense? Persa and the Cats wont stop coming at the Aggies with the pass, regardless of score. They ought to be able to play their A game that makes them a tough out in the Big 10 against this defense. And given that Texas AM loves to blow second half leads, its the perfect offense/defense matchup to keep a back door cover alive in the even the Aggies do push them game beyond the number for a spell. They gave up almost 200 2nd half points, infamously blowing so many late leads that all of the choke jobs tied for third place together on Doc Saturday’s list of comebacks of the year. This team is not the model heavy chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win.. There will be loads of offense in this one, but I trust the Wildcat coaching brass over the sideline in transition Aggies. The Wildcats might still be looking for the first bowl win in program history, but they’ve already become clutch postseason moneymakers. They’ve covered three years in a row, in similar spots, double digit dogs against a Big 12 or SEC team. Each team they pushed the game to the limit. With the added prep dont be surprised to see a Kain Coulter package give the O an extra spark with a new wrinkle or two to get Drake Dunsmore the ball, wide open with a lots of room to run. Besides, even if this game does spin out of control for Northwestern, I feel there’s still an excellent chance a late, worthless Persa to Ebert score will get us the cover.

Vandy -1 over Cincy x 1………Its an 8/9 game in the NCAA First Round disguised as a bowl game. Whatever it really is, it gives us a chance to quickly highlight one of the year’s greatest blunders in college football. Maryland’s surprise dismissal of Ralph Freidgen and even more curious and non-inspiring selection of Randy Edsall to replace him. Edsall rewrote the record books in ways to throw your new players under the bus. It was a miserable season in College Park, one that moved into debacle by October and surpassed record tire fire levels during the second half of their epic collapse against NC State last month. Meanwhile, James Franklin, who had been the head coach in waiting when the Freidgen regime was blown up, moved over to Nashville to take perennial SEC Vanderbilt. All he did was lead Vanderbilt to just their third bowl game in the last 30 years and currently has a top-25 recruiting class percolation. Given the mediocre current state of some of the usual SEC suspects, Franklin has the Dores in position to be factors in the division race. I can hear Friedgen’s jolly last laugh all the way over here. As far as this game, the Bearcats get QB Zach Collaras back in this showcase of good Big East offense vs good SEC defense. I’ll take the SEC D, please.

Illinois Moneyline -160 over UCLA x 1…….Its the Rose Bowl In Hell. So, of course, I am required to suffer through the affair with a play on the Big 10 side. In coin flip type games in recent days we grabbed a small amount of points and went against dominant defensive outfits of Texas, Rutgers and Florida State. We didnt win any of those bets. Call this the If You Cant Beat Then, Join Them Pick Of The Day. The group of this game is the Illini defense, armed with star power, proven with numbers. Marcellus Whitney will kill at least one UCLA QB today, but will more certainly create the game changing turnover for Illinois en route to an ugly win by more than a field goal.

Utah +3  (-125) over Ga Tech, x 1…….I cant help but wonder if the bloom isnt off of Paul Johnson right now. And, I hate using cliches like that. It sounds like the segment of a First Take-type of debate. Blech. And I’m not pushing the thought that teams have figured out his option either. He still has Tech as a top-4 ACC team and in the divisional race hunts. I am strictly speaking from the against the spread results side of the ledger. For the second year in the row, Tech had a losing ATS marks. Thats signicant. At Navy and early on at Tech, Johnson’s squads had seven winning ATS seasons out of eight. There werent many more cluth or more reliable plays during that stretch. But the last two seasons have been underwater for Johnson backers. After strong starts, the Jackets struggled against the number during the meat of the season. They suddenly cant cover a spread in ACC play. And havent provided a winning ticket in any game against the closing line since September 24th. They may have been strong ACC division contenders deep into November, but by then they had become to toxic to bet on. My analysis? They are just average on defense, in many ways still replacing some of the star power that departed after winning the 2009 ACC Title. Johnson has yet to be able to play with his ideal QB and this year’s candidates were a major step below from Josh Nesbitt had been GT’s QB for the first three years of PJ’s time. I dont care how great your option is, 112th in the nation in passing is going to get you in trouble in the big leagues and teams that arent ablt to generate chunks of yards, quick points and take over games in the air are going to be terrible chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win.. And thats another factor, for the first time during PJ’s coaching tenure, his teams are generally the chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. on a week to week basis. And, thats another reason for the ATS decline. He proved to a great underdog chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win.. He’s only so so as the favorite. And, we already know that his bowl success at Navy isnt carrying over to Atlanta. He’s 0-3 in bowls as the GT head man with his team scoring 3, 7, and 7 points in the process. Today they take on a Utah that had an uneven first season in the Pac-12, had to gut through an injury to their starting QB, but still had a chance to make the confernece championship but fell flat on their face in a loss to last place Colorado. The Utes have always been a strong underdog team, maintaned that role this year and are on a 25-12 ATS run as a dog against the closing line. And its always been a great bowl program, going 8-1  SUATS in their last nine, including 4-0 as a dog against a BCS school. They’ve beaten some brands in those games like USC, Alabama, and this very own Georgia Tech program. I think they have a good shot at doing it again.

That just leaves the Peach Bowl, now the Chick Fil-A Bowl. Auburn is short 3-point chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win.. We’re still waiting on the results of the coin flip that will determine which team we take here. We’ll tweet out the results later. But we’re getting close to first kick and there’s still a prop board and college basketball board to look into, so we wanted to get this post up now.

PINSTRIPES BOWL, 3:25, IOWA STATE VS RUTGERS. LINES IOWA STATE -1, O/U 46

The Pick: Iowa State -1 x 2……..By taking the Clones, we get the team beat Oklahoma State, Iowa and took Kansas State down to the wire against a Big East team that couldnt beat that woeful UNC squad we saw earlier in the week, whose best win is against Pitt and beat teams sitting at home this postseason on the couch Syracuse, UConn and USF by a combined 5 points. I dont know under what conditions I would take a Big 12 team thats proven it can beat a really good team over a Big East also ran anyway. Rutgers has awesome defensive numbers, but I think some of that is built against some really average Big East offenses. ISU’s defense meanwhile went against six teams in the FEI’s top 25 offenses. I think its a significant drop in competition on that side of the ball. In a coin flip game, I’ll take the side that made a major statement in the national title chase its last time out against the squad that lost to UConn by 18 points.

Ridiculous. Sublime. Obviously a bad beat. A day after somehow losing money despite going 4-2, we’re on the wrong side of ATS history with the highest scoring double digit ever to fail to cover. At least if we’re going to lose, we’re doing it in style. Its been the unluckiest back to back days during a bowl run we remember having. Today’s action begins in minutes. We’re beyond intrigued to see how we get bit in the ass today. Pull up chair. Pour a drink. You wont want to miss it

ARMED FORCES BOWL, NOON, BYU VS TULSA. LINES, TULSA -2.5/3, o/u 60

BYU +3 (-125) over Tulsa X 2……I know a lot of people get excited about Tulsa because their only four losses have been tto top 10 teams. But those games were such woodsheds that they were controlled, offensive scrimmages for those teams against the Golden Hurricane. So that doesnt impress me much as it relates here. Both teams have good offenses. Only one team has a decent defense, thats BYU. Cougars have too much in the trenches.  I feel that BYU is a bit more legit of a program, where Tulsa is still a offense first, gimmicky type of team. I’ll take the points with what I think is the better team, double it up and make a wish that my luck is a bit better than the last couple of days.

More to come…..just wanted the quick post before this noon kick

You get the feeling Bowl Season steps up notch with today’s doubleheader. The opening game gives us Florida State-Notre Dame, the brandiest brand name matchup so far in the Bowlapalooza. College football is driven by passion. And part of that passion is hate. These programs, and specifically these fanbases, dont like each other, despite their limited experience head to head, in some sort of college football class warfare/morality play. Of course the rest of America generally dislikes these teams as well. There is a ton of pressure right now on both the Kelly and Fisher administrations, the volume hits the 11 mark for the loser in the aftermath setting up a lot of make it or break it type of discussions for 2012 during the offseason. The Noles were a trendy national title game selection back in August. The Irish were also highly rated, so you would have had a lot of takers had you given out odds that this at least would be a BCS Bowl come the postseason. Instead its a pair of 4-loss teams. But it doesnt ratchet down anyone’s hate. I know my Dad is tuning in specifically to cheer against Notre Dame. Once bowl season grabs his attention, you know we’ve finally found some meat on the schedule.

Oh, and, yeah, the Heisman Trophy winner is also playing tonight when Robert Griffin III and Baylor takes on Washington. That always interests us, as we’ll explain later. Toss in the 5:30 kickoff to start the double dip an hour or so after the four-day holiday weekend begins and, yes, you could say we’re lathered up for the games. And we’ve been icing our groin all day, we dont feel the pain of last night anymore, so we’re boldly going back to the window.

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL, 5:30, NOTRE DAME VS FLORIDA STATE. LINES, FSU -4, O/U 46.5

Since we swept the props yesterday, we all of sudden fancy ourselves as sharp prop players. So, of course we checked out the menu for this one. When glancing at the player prop board, you cant help but wonder if the Book isnt trying to subliminally steer us all towards betting the underdog Irish side. Of course, we dont need any such hypnosis or chicanery to roll with the pupsters of any shade, but it always helps. Regardless, check out these numbers for some of the Irish stars: Cierre Woods, O/U 80.5  rushing yards; Michael Flloyd, O/U 92.5 receiving yards, 7.5 catches; Tyler Eifert O/U 4.5 catches. Those would all be all star type games against this defensive statistical monster that is Florida State, which ranks 6th in the nation in total yards, 2nd against the run and 19th against the pass. Conversely, look at the FSU player props. Their leader in receptions Rashad Greene is set at O/U 2.5 catches. Tailback Jermaine Thomas is O/U 45.5 rushing yards and Donta Washington is O/U 60.5. None of those seem like huge numbers against a good, but certainly not great or shut down Irish stop unit. Based on those numbers it looks like oddsmakers are predicting a guadier looking Notre Dame box score. Higher Irish numbers against dominant defensive numbers as opposed to lower numbers vs a D thats merely good? Sounds like the Irish should be favored, right? They’re trying to trick us into taking the points, arent they?

Well, we’re taking them anyway. FSU has great defensive numbers. Notre Dame has really good offensive numbers and good defensive numbers. FSU has average to terrible offensive numbers. The Nole offense is the biggest liability in this game. Well outside of Notre Dame’s habit of crapping down their leg. We think they’ll overcome that enough to at least keep this game within a field goal.

FSU’s defensive numbers are great looking. We pointed out the traditional stats above, but even the new fangled efficiency marks like the Noles. They rank 13th in defensive efficiency and place in the top-10 in most of the defensive numbers they track to forge that number. The Irish, meanwhile, arent that far behind, ranking 18th in the defensive FEI and within the top third nationally in a host of other defensive rankings, be them traditional stats or the newer, fancier ones. But, look deeper. The Irish have performed against four offenses the FEI deem elite: Michigan, USC, Stanford and Navy. The Noles, just one, and thats Miami, a poster child perhaps of some of the head scratching FEI rankings (Another one? Okie State is their #1 D, yet all I hear about is how poor they are on that side of the ball. We’ll file that away for the Fiesta Bowl next week). Notre Dame has faced four different top-11 offenses to the Noles one. The Irish have faced seven offenses in the top third of the country, the Noles just three.

The Irish lost their opener to USF in a freak fest of a game that not only saw Notre Dame turn the ball over like its their job, but saw the worst possible outcomes triggered as a result of seemingly each miscue. Otherwise, its taken an elite offense to, frankly, line up and flat outscore this bunch.  When the vaunted Noles D has faced its good offenses, they’ve kind of been worked over. Clemson and Wake tagged them for 35 points apiece and the four O’s in the FEI top third they faced dropped an average of 28 points per game on them. The quite possibly fraudulent Miami offense was the low scorer with 19.  I’m not saying thats bad, after all its about the same points per game the Irish allowed when they too played top third offenses. But, the thing is Florida State doesnt come in here with a really good offense. Its decidedly average, lacks a reliable, let alone a game breaking tailback, can be just as fussy at the QB position as Tommy Rees and doesnt have the prototypical scare the shorts off you deep threat of past great Nole teams. They’ve struggled all season to generate long scoring drives, are only average at gobbling up the available yards in front of them and have a terrible habit of getting kicked off the field three and out style. They have one of the worst first down rates in the nation. Any team whose offense is so lame that in lets pedestrian at best offenses like Virginia beat them or Florida hang around with them is going to have problems matching points with an outfit like the Irish. We’ll take the 4-point head start

The Pick: Notre Dame +4 (-120)…….Notre Dame has beed featured as a Bowl Chroncile winner for us both times they’ve bowled during the Bowl Chronicle Era with their wins over Hawaii in 2008 and a year ago against Miami. Brian Kelly has typically been a great coach to bet on, although that has yet to materialize consistently yet in South Bend. People just think FSU is the more talented team. But, i dont think they are. And armed with the worst unit on the field, their offense, I think they lose this outright.

ALAMO BOWL, 9:00, BAYLOR VS WASHINGTON. LINES, BAYLOR -10, O/U 79.5

Two good to great offenses swap helment paint with two atrocious defenses. Its the #1 rated FEI Offense Baylor Bears vs the 94th FEI Defense of Washington. And  in the other corner its the 33rd ranked FEI offense in Washington vs the #87th ranked FEI Defense of Baylor. Cue the something’s got to give cliches. Actually maybe nothing gives in this one. We’ve seen a ton of scoring fests already this bowl season with 8 over hitting in 12 bowl games. This has a great chance at adding to the Over bounty.

We’re on the underdog Huskies for one reason, and one reason alone: The Heisman Trophy Jinx. Did you know that the Heisman winner’s team checks in at 9-25-2 ATS in their bowl game? How about that, huh? Its another one of our annual bowl traditions, betting against the Heisman winner. Sure, our tradition of taking the underdog in the Holiday Bowl blew up in our face last night, but what are the chances of tradition being spoiled in back to back nights? Wait, before you answer that, Rich Rod and David Brandon arent in charge of this game, are they? Hey-O!!!

Now, I know what you’re saying: come on Jamie Mac at the JCB, thats all fine and dandy, but have you seen the last two years? The Heisman winner has done just fine. I’ll grant that. Two years ago Trent Richardson and the Tide bucked this trend. A year ago so did Cam Newton and Auburn, depending on when or where you bet. I see the preseason magazines and archive sites like covers.com listing the closing line at Auburn -1, but man I swear we pushed ith Oregon +3. We went ahead and put the push in the above record, but even with a loss, the dismal performance against the number of the Heisman winner’s team stretches back deep into the 1970s. And its taken a Heisman winner on the SEC Champion the last two years to upset this apple cart. Those were elite teams with an elite player. Lets call this another in our long line of  honorary Monty Burns We’re Playing The Percentages Strawberry pick of the day. One day we might even track the MBWPTPS picks. I’m sure they’ve been winners over time. Just like I’m sure the Heisman winner wont cover the closing line three years in a row. Dont even think of telling me otherwise, my fingers are in my ears.

The Pick: Washington +10…..nobody was on UW in their bowl game a year ago which looked like a mismatch against Nebraska. Nobody except us, that is. The Huskies were 7-4 ATS this season against FBS foes and were consistent winners for us during the first half of the season, backing them against Utah, Arizona, Cal and Nebraska. The Utah cover was an outright win as an underdog, the Husker game was a cover in a loss, while the Huskies won and covered as short chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. against Arizona and Cal. We lost on UW in short fav spot in November against Oregon St (Yikes, what a strange result. And an even stranger 4rth quarter for UW that day) and they couldnt cover the big +18 for us against Stanford. But, combined with their bowl cover for us last year that gives the blog a 5-2 ATS record with Washington in the last calendar year. I cant believe we’ve been on that many UW games. We love The Sark, I guess. Bottomline, both defenses stink. There will be a ton of points scored. Baylor’s defense makes them a dicey play to cover a big number. The running of Chris Polk will help give UW enough offense to keep this closer than the experts think.

For now, just putting single units on each. After last nights poor luck, we’re just playing it safe. The next four days–Week 17 in the NFL included–will give us more than two games a day to look at and we might unearth a double or triple play or two. Or three. Or four. Stayed tuned to the JCB Twitter feed for updates, possible prop play additions (with five hours till kick, you never know) and commentary.

MILITARY BOWL, 4:30, TOLEDO VS AIR FORCE. LINES, TOLEDO -3, O/U 70.5

We’re always on the hunt for underdogs that will outrush their opponents, especially in bowl games. Despite the more pass happy nature of modern football, teams that are catching points who end up outrushing their opponents almost always cover the spread. Of course, what help is that? We dont know the boxscores before the games. Wait, do we? Somebody get on that for us. Absent of that, it does always have us on the lookout for matchups that just scream ‘this puppy will outrush the favorite.’ Its why we’re drawn to teams like Navy and Air Force when those service academies are underdogs. So, you would think we’d be all over the Pilots today in this Military Bowl. After all, they’re catching points with their powerful #2 ranked rushing attack that churns out over 300 yards on the ground a game against a MAC Defense. But, no. We’re shunning our love for rushing dogs, our distrust of MAC defenses and risking the bad karma of betting against an academy in a bowl sponsored by the military. Surely, they wouldnt pay off the refs, would they? Nah, not our government.

I cant lie to you readers. I’m taking Toledo mostly because they are my hometown team and who wants to be a Bah Humbug Scrouge and bet against the local team in a bowl game? Not me. I’m cheering for the Rockets, the line is small, they’re more talented, so I’ll take a stab. I know you come here for better, more smart analysis than that, but when you’re making a Homer pick, intelligent discourse gets put to the back burner. Besides, there is always Chitownblue’s hoopage insights like on tonight’s IU/MSU game if you want to chew on some meaty insights.

But there is some educated breakdown in all of this. Yes, I know Toledo is in the MAC. And, yes, I know there defenses are pretty shaky. But, I actually like this Toledo stop unit. Yes, I said that. Yes, I know this team infamously allowed more than 60 points in back to back games last month. But they’re not that bad against the run, ranking 25th nationally, so they have a chance I feel to slow this Air Force triple option attack on enough drives. The Rockets struggle against the pass, but thats not something Air Force is all the good at or something they test the water enough to take advantage of. Toledo might be from the MAC, but they have the better defense here. Air Force just isnt good on that side of the ball. They are way down at 86th in the FEI Defensive Efficiency rankings, one of the worst among bowl teams. Toledo is 60th and have shown a better ability to get off the field outside of those strange back to backers against Northern and Western in early November. But getting back to the Pilots, they are 100th in available yards allowed and 96th in value drives allowed. Both offenses will land their punches, but based on those numbers, I dont think there is a chance Air Force’s defense can slow this team down. I just like Toledo’s three headed monster at tailback, their two efficient quarterbacks and the explosiveness of Eric Page.

The Pick: Toledo -3……In a game where both offenses ought to steal the show, I’ll take the one thats more diverse and explosive. And thats the Rockets.

Props? Props!

We havent played props since the first day of bowl season. But, we’re liking a few numbers in this Rocket/Falcon contest. We got creamed late in last year’s bowl runs by playing too many props, so we’re sticking to the original gameplan of making these just for a half unit.

Adonis Thomas Over 109.5 rushing yards…….He hasnt had the healtiest of seasons, but he’s ready to go tonight and the best Rocket back of the bunch. He had three games of over 130 yards in November. He’s fast, shifty and gets a lot of yards after contact, despite his size. He could very well slip out of here with bowl MVP honors. Wouldnt surprise me at all.  Air Force has allowed their foes top tailback to chug out 122.16 yards per game and seen whoever it is go over this total for Thomas in six of the Pilots 10 games against FBS opponents.

Will Eric Page Score A TD, Yes…..look, I realize he’s only caught a score in four of 12 games, but look for the Owens/Danton QB combo to throw at him throughout the game. He could get double digit catches. I think part of the reason the Rockets win this game is their ability in the passing game, Page is a big part of that. He’s at his best in the big games and I think he’ll paydirt tonight. And, he’s my favorite player on the team, grew up down the road from me, so, yeah, lets gamble on him. What could go wrong? Keep in mind, this wins even if he runs one in, or houses it on a return.

Tim Jefferson, Over 49.5 rushing yards…..Jefferson isnt the Force’s leading rusher and he has a lot less rushing yards than you’d expect out of an option QB. But with the winds gusting big time today in the capital and with Toledo likely to struggle at various times against this tricky option, I think Jefferson will be closer to 100 yards than 50 yards by the time the final gun sounds. And, well, we cant have every bet focused on Toledo. We need a silver lining if the Pilots offense starts rolling.

Over 70.5……I swore I would lay off the overs this bowl season, but apparently the Over is hitting every bowl game this year. And friend of blog jallotta has urged me to end my prohibition on the overs. So, we’ll take a stab. Under plays everywhere are high fiving each other.

HOLIDAY BOWL, 8:00, TEXAS VS CALIFORNIA. LINES, TEXAS -4, O/U 48

Ah, the Holiday Bowl. We have a tradition here at the JCB, started years before we began to blog. Always bet the Underdog in the Holiday Bowl. Its annually the craziest bowl of the bunch and the pupster has covered at a 23-10 ATS rate in the bowl’s glorious, high scoring history, including 9 out of the 12 matchups. We actually got off this trend two years ago and took Nebraska as a short favorite. We won, but that Husker team had Ndomkung Suh. We were too afraid to bet against him. We got right back on this underdog bandwagon a year ago with Washington over the same Husker team, minus Suh, and won as well. Texas is chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. here and they lack a game changer on either side of the football that would make me want to bump off the dog like we did in 2009.

I do wonder if Texas even wants to be here. There has been a lot of Mack Brown retirement talk. And while their defense has starred all season, their offense is terrible and I dont relish backing this Ash/McCoy two-headed monster at quarterback in the postseason. Malcolm Brown, their possible next great Longhorn Tailback has become a forgotten man down the stretch. Other than a win over the Aggies, against a team that was dead in the water and pioneered ways to lose games every week, I just havent been impressed with Texas. The Sooners, Okie St and Baylor blew them out of the water. KState beat them despite their QB playing their worst game of the season. They scored 5 points against Missouri. Both of these teams began the season strong, then suffered a losing streak. But Texas never really rebounded to play consistent, winning football. Cal did, with wins in four of their final six games and three out of their last four. Their only loss in Novemeber was a 3-point loss to Stanford. Since a three-game losing streak–that included losses to USC and Oregon–the Bears have averaged 29.33 points per game.

Texas claims to have all the talent in the world, but in this game its Cal thats got the players who’ve performed well this season. In Isi Sofele, its the Bears who have the 1,200 yard rusher. They’ve really rode him as they turned their season around. In Keenan Allen, they have the best receiver in this game. With his running mate Marvin Jones, they also have the second best. QB Zach Maynard isnt an all star, but he’s done a great job of erasing the mistakes from his game during the closing stretch and he’s better at the position than what the Horns have to offer. Sure, the Horns drip with talent on the defensive front 7, but their play, especially the pass rush, has been inconsistent all year. I’ll take the Bears secondary. One critical stat in bowl games, and in college football capping in general, is breaking down how teams do in the red zone. Texas is terrible at it, only converting touchdowns on 51.02 percent of red zone tries. That’s 104th nationally. Nor is it good. Neither is the fact that more than a quarter of the time, they come out empty handed. I dont like chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. that leaves points on the board they way Texas does. I also think there’s a big edge in the punting game to Cal and as long as the Bears can contain Texas’ return game, look for Cal to earn a field position edge throughout. Dont get swayed by the brand name. Texas is just 12-12 in their last 24 games. I dont think their the better team here, so we’ll take the points. I understand that the best unit on paper in this game is the Texas D, but Cal is strong up the middle on defense. I expect the Horns to harass Maynard with their pressure, but look for that Cal D to make the Texas QB duo beat them. And they wont be able too.

The Pick: Cal +4…..and, so it begins. We’ve almost grabbed equal parts chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. and underdog so far in bowl season. But, its time to go full bore with the pupsters. Every year we seem to go on a nice run this time of year doing so, so let’s hope for a repeat. We might not take another favorite until January. And what better way to usher in an underdog run than taking the points in the Holiday Bowl. The Underdog is 23-10 ATS with 13 outright wins in this classic, making it the Michigan/Notre Dame series of bowl games. Besides, the Pac-12 is 19-6 ATS as bowl underdogs the last decade or so. With Arizona State not covering a week ago in this role, you could say we’re also just playing the percentages in this one.

We went 2-0 last night, winning a single and a double play. Tonight, we’re risking a single unit on each contest, with those half unit prop unit prop bets.  Good Luck!

2011-12 Bowl Season, 9-6, +4.0 Units

Double Plays, 2-0, +4.0

Single Plays, 4-4, -0.4

Half Unit Props, 3-2, +0.4

Purdue -1 over Western Michigan, x 1……1, its a MAC team, so their defense will probably stink. Do you want the worse defense in these bowl games? 2, I dont think WMU will be able to run the football against the Boilers. 3, this is mostly because the Boilers outclass Western along both lines of scrimmage. Kawaan Short will dominate. And some of the edge rushers by the Boilers who struggled against bigger, Big 10 teams will emerge today. 4, Its the Big 10′s first game of the bowl season and as a Big 10 sucker I have to play this. 5, Karma the day after famous Boilermaker Drew Brees set the single season NFL passing record. 6, to fade a public thats bet this game down from Purdue -3. 7, I think Purdue has a solid set of corners who can keep down Carder, White and company. 8, There is nobody around to punch and remind me that way back in September we lost a coin flip game on the Boilers against Rice. Live and not learn, I guess.

NC State -2.5 vs Louisville, x 2….We won on Louisville last year in the postseason. We havent been interested in NC State since Russell Wilson left campus. We’re none to eager to back anything that even reeks of the ACC after last night’s UNC debacle. Yet, we’re rolling with the Pack tonight. You always have to ride the coach whose proven he can win these tricky fake, yet real games they call bowls.  He’s 8-2 SU, ATS in bowls. He’s won and covered against Boise on the Smurf Turf in a bowl game. I might not like him overall as a coach and his dink and dunk routine with Mike Glennon will drive us crazy tonight, but you just cant fade him in this spot. He’s also always been one the best coaches with time to prepare. Louisville’s Teddy Bridgewter can make some exciting plays, but he’s just as vulnerable to mistakes. This might be too big a game for him to expect a clean slate. I like both these defenses, they’re very hard to sustain long drives against. I give the nod to the NC State offense that has a bit more parts to it. Plus, the game is in North Carolina. Pack win this by a touchdown.

Purdue for a single shot. NC State for a double shot. Both favorites? Whats happening here?!?!

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl, 5:05 pm, North Carolina vs Missouri. Lines, Missou -6, O/U 52.5

Missouri vs North Carolina? Sounds like an Elite Eight game in three months. In fact, is there an ambitious book out there that will give any of us odds that these schools meet during the Regional weekend of March Madness? That would be a must see game between two talented teams who love to play an exciting up and down the floor game. As for a football bowl game? Maybe not as sexy. It’s a pair of 7-5 teams, trying to puncuate their inconsistent, choppy seasons with at least a win. Although we spent some time over Christmas dinner bickering over who is better, the fifth place team from the Big 12 or the fourth place team from the ACC Atlantic Division. Tonight, that will at least be solved. Ok, I kid. We really didnt spend time debating this topic. Well at least nobody else did. I’ve been debating it in my head ever since bowl matchups were announced.

The matchup that jumps out on paper is the 11th ranked rushing of Missouri that travels on the ground to the tune of 236.8  yards a game against the North Carolina rush defense that allows just a shade over 100 rushing a yards a game good for 14th in country. The Tigers are a bit banged up with leading rushing Henry Josey out with an injury, but Kendial Lawrence picked up 263 yards with a 5.2 yards per carry since taking over as lead back pacing the Tigers during their three game winning streak to close the season. With he and QB James Franklin who churned out 839 yards with his legs, the Tigers of should be alright personnel wise. They’ll be knocking heads with a talented Heels defensive front anchored by DT Quinton Coples who’ll be making millions as a first round draft pick in the spring.  I expect both sides of this battle to land their blows. The Tigers offensive line is a bit undersized and I do give the overall edge here to the UNC front seven to win more of those battles. The Tigers passing attack isnt all that dangerous and they rarely test you down the field. This plays right into the talented, fast Tar Heel defense’s hands.

Meanwhile when the Heels have the ball, I feel they can pound right up the gut pretty much at will with Giovanni Bernard. The Tigers have been vulnerable to 100-yard rushing games during Big 12 play. I wouldnt be surprised if the freshman in Carolina Blue ends as the game’s leading rusher. QB Bryn Renner doesnt offer the dual threat of Franklin, but he’s much better at stretching the field. He’s actually had comprable, if not better in spots, stats than TJ Yates did a year ago. Yates is currently starting as a rookie with the Houston Texans. The Heels did gain more yards a year ago through the air, but they’ve also dedicated more of their offense to their factor back Bernard than they did with anyone a year ago in Yates senior campaign. With Dwight Jones and Erik Highsmith he has two targets that can go vertical and change the course of drives down field. Missouri’s passing game leans so heavy on the horizontal game that I wonder if when the rubber meets the road, there wont be a ton of space for their running game in critical sequences. With the power of Bernard and the 14.2 and 15.1 yards per catch of Hightower and Jones–going up against the 91st ranked passing defense in the nation–I think the Heels might have a bit more ability to play their own game against a Missou D that’s been good against the average to bad teams, but shaky against eventual teams all season long.

I know the Heels are undergoing a coaching change and sometimes those teams arent the best buys in bowl season. But, the coaching change isnt a sudden one. They’ve been playing under an interim leader all year. They’ve known all season that a new head coach would be hired. And this team has had so many distractions the last two years, that one more game with an interim head coach will seem business of usual, even if the new head man in Larry Fedora is keeping a watchful eye.  The Heels went 4-4 this year against bowl teams–Missou went 3-5–and the only game they werent in late was against Clemson. Those Tigers are more talented and athletic than these Tigers. This stays close the whole way

The Pick: UNC +6, x 1…….well, buckle in people. This will be a sprint all week in our last chance to flip the Book during college football. And if you dont like underdogs, then this isnt the blog for you. We’ll be riding as many of them as we can during this last week of December. Sometimes, I’ll admit, out prediliction for the pupsters leads to forced analysis, but this taking the points during bowl season has enabled us to pay for our Christmas bills for several years running now. We dont see reason to change stripes. Between two 7-5 teams where there isnt a really huge statistical edge that swings in either direction, we’ll take a chance with the points and enjoy the game.

We’re excited tonight because we have a sneaky suspicion our hero is touching down tonight for the first time this season in the San Diego Poinsetta Bowl. He might be wearing purple, white and horns. His appearance tonight would indeed fall into one of his traditional identitities, that being a team, despite its great season having to play in a minor bowl after a couple years of playing in a major bowl. For real, how motivated will TCU be tonight in this Poinsetta Bowl after consecutive years in the BCS? Last year it was the Rose Bowl, a national, riveted TV audience while they took down the Big 10 Champ. This year? A pre-Christmas Day Bowl in a half filled stadium with next to nobody at home watching as they take on a team from the WAC. After the fifth TCU fan yawned when this matchup announced, the Disinterested Favorite emerged. He’s like Beetlejuice in that regard.

After initially scoffing at this crappy looking game on paper, I am coming around more and more to the viability of tonight’s San Diego Poinsetta Bowl between TCU and Louisiana Tech. In one corner, you have the rocking and rolling TCU offense scoring 41.7 points per game behind the arm of Casey Pachell and his 24 touchdown passes and the various legs of their headed rushing attack featuring three backs with at least 100 carries, who have combined for 2,157 yards, 6.59 yards per carry and 22 touchdowns. In the other corner, is a La Tech defense thats proven very hard to drive the ball down the field against. Looking for an underrated midmajor stop unit? Look no further than the La Techsters. They’re 9th in the country in available yards allowed, 6th in the country in explosive drives (averaging 10 yards per play) allowed and 9th in value drives allowed. If you’re looking to drive the field, then you dont want La Tech on the other side of the line of scrimmage. Sure, some of those numbers were built on the backs of subpar WAC offenses, but you could say the same thing about some of TCU offensive output, that is was mostly accumulated against some average MWC defenses? Regardless, we’ll find out which is mor legit tonight. The Bulldog defense that ranks in the top-10 in all those above efficiency numbers or the TCU offense thats in the top-10 in those numbers as well. Hmmmm, maybe I should recant a bit on my stance that this is a terrible matchup where we will learn nothing.

La Tech comes in on a 7-game winning streak, climbing out of a 1-4 hole to make it to the postseason for the first time since 2008. Their best results include road wins at fellow WAC bowlers Nevada and Utah State. They also went into Oxford and beat Ole Miss, lost in OT at Mississippi State and Houston and fell to eventual Conference USA Champ Southern Miss by 2 points. TCU, meanwhile, has lost just twice this year, a 2-point loss to Baylor and a 7-point loss in overtime to Southern Methodist. They thumped MWC bowlers Air Force, BYU and Wyoming all by double figures and scored one of the biggest marquee wins of the season when they won at Boise State, 36-35, last month. Both teams have had very good seasons. For TCU its really their last dance at this level. They will be part of the Big 12 next year and their days of toiling against mid-majors are over. Many people feel La Tech is a Conference USA-type team playing in the wrong league. But, nobody wants La Tech in their league. The Bulldogs have a little bit of a chip on their shoulder and have a golden chance tonight to show they can play with almost anybody.

TCU went 3-3 ATS against fellow bowl teams, including a pair of wins, but no covers as chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. by a bit more than the 10 points they are laying tonight. La Tech? Hold on to your seats, but the Bulldogs were one of the best teams all season against the number. Against FBS teams, La Tech was 10-1 ATS.  They last time they failed to cover the spread was on October 1.  They went 5-0 ATS against fellow bowl teams this year. They were catching points in all five and pulled two outright upsets. Could I really pull the trigger on La Tech? Yes, I can.

The Pick: La Tech +10 x 2……when skimming various previews on CFN, Scout and ESPN, everyone is predicting a comfortable TCU win. But, when I peruse some of my favorite gambling forum, be it Madjacks or Capping The Game, I see a lot of familiar, trustworthy e-faces taking the points. Well, I know which side I’m going to trust.  Everyone is rightfully talking about Casey Pachell the TCU quarterback, but dont be surprised if the story tonight is his counterpart for the Bulldogs Colby Cameron. He took over after half the season was over, but he’s making up for lost time. He’s thrown for 273 yards per game over the last five contests with an 11-2 TD/INT ratio. Given how well he’s played, it makes you wonder if those close losses to good teams like So Miss, Houston and Mississippi State would have gone the other way. He’s proven to be a big upgrade over Nick Isham from the first half of the year. I’d expect some of Cameron’s number to decline a bit with the upgrade in competition, but I think he’ll make enough plays, especially to Quinton Patton, whose gones for 94.2 yards per game with five scores with Cameron tossing him the ball. TCU is good on defense, but not the lights out unit they’ve been in recent years. Look for La Tech to have just enough offense and defense to keep this close. TCU wins, but only by a TD, and La Tech covers this number. How serious are we are here? Its our first double play of the bowl season, thats how serious. Good Luck!

• Temple/Wyomong Over/Under 51.5…….the side, with the Owls favored by 7 was all but a done deal in the waning seconds. But, wtih 3:22 to go, Wyoming took over on their own 29 yard line on what appeared to be a worthless, playing out the string drive. Ten plays later Brett Smith toasses a touchdown pass to cut the lead to 37-13, Wyoming decides to go for 2 points, makes it with seconds left to give us a final, cosmetic score of 37-15. Whats the big deal? Well, that 2-point converstion screwed Under bettors and tilted the 51.5 total set for the game  Over. I would be killing hookers all over the place if I lost an Under and took a bad beat in this fashion. Does the coach’s card really advise going for 2 when down 24 points with seconds left? I can only venture that word got to the Wyoming sideline that a lot of their alums had backed the Over. Its the only thing that makes sense
• Utah State vs Ohio U, Utah State -2…….The ending of the Ohio/Utah State has been widely mocked as refs had to go to the review not once, but twice to figure out whether or not Ohio scored a TD. The correct call was eventually made–they did not–but Ohio U scored anyway two plays later to take the lead with only 13 to go to take a 24-23 lead. This game was Utah State -2, per the closing line, so the entire winning side in the sports gambling world shifted hands. Tyler Tettleton’s 4rth down pass to Lavon Brazil down to the 1-yard line might not have been the actual deciding play to to do this, but it was the play of the game for Sportsbooks, which saw a ton of action on the Aggies moving USU from slight dog to slight favorite by gametime.
• San Diego St/UL Lafayette, Over/Under 61…….In the New Orleans Bowl nightcap, the spread was never in doubt. UL Lafayette was a 4-point underdog, but never trailed in this game. Until the very end when SDSU scored a final TD to make it 30-29. They werent going to cover the -4, but the Over/Under 61 was still very much in play. A two-point conversion by the Aztecs failed, but ULL got the ball back, hit a couple plays, then boomed a 50-yard field goal at the buzzer that not only gave the Rajin’ Cajuns the win, but also brought joy to everyone with an Over 61 ticket. Twenty-six fourth quarter points were needed in order to tilt the Over and that’s exactly what happened, with the final score occurring as time expired.

There were six major bets that day and three were decided basically on the last play. I count myself lucky that of all of my plays that day, only one factored into the dramatics and we came out with a winner on the Ohio Bobcats. Otherwise, how exciting? Say what you will about the problems of the bowl season, and there is indeed a lot to say, but Saturday proved how exciting it can be. And, who loves this season more than anybody else: the sportsbook and the gamblers. That’s who this season is really for. Everybody else will have forgotten the three middling bowl games from last weekend, but anybody with action on those games, the bookies setting the lines and anybody who happened to be in a sportsbook during any of the dramatics will likely never forget.

The only other thing worth wrapping up from Day One was a quick mention on how none of the factor backs paid out. With Temple’s Bernard Pierce, USU’s Robert Turbin and SDSU’s Ronnie Hillman, we had three of the top-10 tailbacks in rushing yards per game in action. Bookies set rushing total props for each, but none went over. Neither Pierce or Hillman even cracked the century mark, upsets in its own right. Turbin landed on 101 yards, except the Book had set his total at 103.5. This was a bad beat for the JCB as we had the Over. On the Aggies last legit drive of the game, they had a chance to milk the clock with Durbin and put away Ohio U. Turbin was stopped for no gain on first down, but didnt touch the ball on second or third down, the Aggies punted the ball away and didnt take a real offensive snap the rest of the way. Sigh.

But, we came out a little ahead of Day One of Bowl Chronicles. We split on our regular sized plays, winning on Wyoming -3 on the second half line and OU +2, while losing on Wyoming +7 and SDSU -4. But, we went 3-2 on half play prop bets. Winners included Tettleton Over 1.5 TDs, Brazil Over 85.5 receiving yards and Escobar Over 67.5 receiving yards, while our losers were the aforemention Turbin play and that goofy, cross game fantasy play of Ohio +0.5 over Temple. We didnt have a chance there. And it might be the last time we take a flier on such an unusual play. But, hey, we’ll take a 4-3 start and the +0.2 Units (thats 20 bucks if your unit is $100 like mine are) of profit. We’ll try not to spend it all in one place. Actually, thats a bold faced lie. After a two-day break, the bowl action kicks back up tonight and that’s exactly where we are spening Saturday’s profit and then some.

Beef O’Brady’s St. Petersburgh Bowl. Florida International vs Marshall, 8:00. Lines, FIU -4, O/U 49

The Pick: FIU -4……..I cant lie and say I know a ton about these teams. Florida International is an interesting story. In September, they looked like the 2011 moneymaker of the year with three wins and covers to begin the year, including a pair of outright wins as an underdog against Louisville and UCF. Then, well, CRASH.  They failed to cover in six straight games, notching straight up wins in just two of those games. They closed the season like they began, however, with three straight wins and covers. They won all those games by double figures and covered the spread in each by at least a touchdown. They are solid defensively with the 33rd ranked total defense, 24rth ranked rushing D and 16th ranked scoring D in the land. They rank in the top third of the country in available yards allowed and value drives allowed. They’ve proven to be a difficult D to move against, especially when playing fellow mid-majors. High octane conference mates Arkansas State and UL Lafayette scored on them, but nobody else out of the BCS leagues got out of the teens against this team. That doesnt bode well for a Marshall team thats 101st in total offense and 98th in scoring. Marshall, ranked 102nd in available yards gained, will have a tough road against the FIU stop unit. Marshall is only in this game after winning three of its final four games to even its record at 6-6. Except those wins came against three losing teams with a combined record of 10-26. To me, this game comes down to Vince Perry, the DE for Marshall. If FIU can contain him, then their offense should move the ball consistenly. I dont feel Marshall will be all that great when they have the ball, so if FIU can play their own game offensively they should be able to win this game by at least a touchdown. The Panthers dont have the greatest offense, but its serviceable. They run the football with Kedrick Rhodes, pass the football with the combination of QB Wesley Carrol and WR TY Hilton and they dont turn the ball over. Sounds like a winning formula. With Hilton, they have the best player on the field. He’ll dominate the Herd and their 100th ranked passing defense. Besides, can we really pick Marshall? They are one of seven bowl teams to be outscored this year. As I see it, one of these teams is bowl worthy–FIU–while the other isnt. We’ll roll with the Panthers and lay the small number.

I might yet add a prop or two tonight. I am leaning towards Hilton Over 79.5 receiving yards and Rhodes Over 80.5 rushing yards. I’m going to mull the whole prop board over and if the we bite on anything, well be sure to alert you vis the JCB Twitter.

Rose: Oregon -6.5 vs Wisco, O/U 72……..I saw this at 5.5 earlier this morning, and its already sprouted a full point. ChalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. that up to the trendy opinion that Michigan State, with its train wrecking defensive line, might have been a better matchup for the Ducks than the Badgers. Dont you give any chance to the Badgers pulling off a 1999 Rose Bowl repeat, when they trucked right through an offensive juggernaught from the Pac-10 in UCLA that had spent the season in the national title chase with Montae Ball starring in the Ron Dayne roll? It could happen. For a quarter. Maybe a quarter and a half. Then Bielema and Co will forget about Ball, the Ducks will make their move and before the Badgers can think about mounting a comeback, they could be down big. The Ducks were 4.5-point chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. on this field in this game two years ago, but were beat up by Ohio State and lost by nine points. Wisconsin has enough offense to land haymakers. But do they have anything like the defensive talent Ohio State had two years ago that bottled up the Ducks to the tune of 17 points? Thats a big question. As an underdog player, I’ll be seeking reasons to take the Badgers and this full touchdown head start over the next month. We’ll see if I find enough.

Oklahoma State -3.5 vs Stanford, O/U 73…..The Cardinal might be 15-2-1 ATS since the middle of last season, but I initially love the Pokes in this one. I feel this outfit is every bit as explosive as the Oregon team thats given Stanford fits the last two years, with maybe just a bit more defense to go along with it. This year’s version of Stanford is a lot like the 2005 and 2006 Notre Dame teams that made the BCS. Their best result was a close loss to USC. That doesnt bode well going up against a Cowboy team that might have put forth the best in-conference resume of wins of any team in the country. I think they eventually break serve enough against Andrew Luck and win this game by at least 10 points.

Michigan -2 vs Virginia Tech, O/U 53.5……Had you told me three months ago that Michigan was going to end the season favored to win the Sugar Bowl, I would have demanded that you instantly stop bogarting that joint. Unless you were my Dad. Then, I’d just be worrying that the summer sun had been causing stroke symptoms. Last time Michigan played in the Sugar they lost 9-7 to Auburn and Bo Jackson. The opposing factor back this time around is David Wilson with 1,627 yards.  Wilson was the #4 tailback, per Rivals, in the 2009 recruiting class. Michigan has already faced two backs this season from that list in Cierre Wood and Edwin Baker, who ranked 8th and 6th. The Wolverines counter with Fitzgerald Toussaint, who was the 9th ranked all purpose back in that same 2009 class. Also: Denard Robinson. Two great defensive coordinators in Bud Foster and Greg Mattison coach a pair of  stop units that are in transition and might have overachieved numerically this season. I lean towards Michigan. Denard is 17-8 straight up as a starter and trending upwards.

Clemson -3.5 vs West Virginia O/U 58.5……Always bet against Clemson in a bowl game. They are 4-12 SU, 3-13 ATS in their last 16 bowl games. Betting against them in a bowl game is nothing short of a family tradition during the holidays.  I’ll take the ‘Neers, the points and this offense that almost put up 500 yards against LSU.

LSU Pick ‘Em vs Alabama O/U 40…..I’ve been riding LSU all season. The blog is 6-0 on them this season. The two times I went against them, LSU won by a combined 96-27 and we never had a chance. I had them in the showdown last month. I will probably take them in the rematch next month. The Over/Under is set at a ridiculously low 40. I’m inclined to not bet against the team with the Honeybadger. Its interesting to me how solid Bama was a 5.5-point chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. in the first game, but they didnt even open as the favorite in the nuetral site rematch.  LSU was -1 this morning. How this game gets bet in the next couple of days to ultimately cement this line will be fascinating. I feel LSU wins again, but that the initial wave of betting will make the Tigers a slight, perhaps even field goal, underdog. It’s already moved a point to a pick ‘em in one afternoon. I’m going to wait and see if there are any points to be given out first, but right now I am thinking LSU wins again.

I’l probably change my mind on half the bowl games before its said and done. But if I had to make my bets today on at least the BCS bowls, I would take LSU, lay the slight chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. with Michigan and Oklahoma State, take the field goal and hook with WVA and buy a half point to get Wisco at a full touchdown, +7. But, thats what I would do today. Ask me over drinks at various holiday parties and who knows how my mind will have shifted the more we talk about these games.

I’m open to anything, so lets hear it. What side should we be on in these?