College Football

I am well aware of just how poorly this is going. Three straight days of losing money on bowls. We’re reeling. Wednesday went 4-2, but managed to lose money. Thursday we pushed on Game One, then lost a double play with a double digit dog who scored 56 points. Yesterday, we went 2-2 on sides, all doubles, which isnt the worst, but we offered one of our worst picks–the Over in last night’s Insight Bowl between Iowa and Oklahoma–and upped it to a single unit. We watched in still horror as Iowa was shutout until the fourth quarter. Its always great to have an Over bet with one team refusing to score. That whole contest took us from profit to loss on the day. And also summed up the bowl run we’re having. We’re still up +0.3 Units, but thats peanuts. And we’re doubting that one hot run that surges our bowl picks is coming this year. Five games today, here’s the card so far, with props and college hoops possibly pending. Follow along on the JCB Twitter. We’ll be more active today.

Northwestern +10 over Texas A/M x2……..Here’s what we know about Northwestern. Dan Persa is a holy lock to complete 3/4s of his passes. He re-established himself as a legit passer in the Big 10 after his Achilles injury. But he cant run worth a lick anymore a year after avereaging 51 yards per game on the ground with nine rushing scores. Jeremy Ebert is a really good threat at flanker whose aprt to gobble up a bunch of catches or explode for a load of yards, but rarely both. For the umpteenth year in a row, they have zero tailback theat. But their offense continues to hum along, specializing in drives with a lot of snaps and regularily picking their way down the field and into scoring range. They settle for field goals way too much and would probably win a couple games more a year if they would just adopt a hard line, four down territory strategy once they crossed midfield. Their defense pushes the boundary of bend, but dont break limits. They give up a ton of fourth quarter points. When one of your fantasy players goes up against them, you’re smiling as they given up 14 combined 100 yard rushing or receiving games with 18 scores between those players. This defense, ranked 90th nationally in rushing yards allowed, held Fitzgerald Toussaint of Michigan to 25 yards on 15 carries, good enough to be nominated one of the Big 10′s biggest box score mysteries of the season.

But, hey, otherwise everything was great with the Purple this year. I think its safe to say this uneven season was a bit of a disappointment for Northwestern, but they still earned their fourth bowl game in a row, extending a record streak for the program. And despite those flaws, we’re still in line this morning with them and the +10 for this nooner.  Here’s why.

Would you want to lay ten points with the Aggies 112th ranked pass defense? Persa and the Cats wont stop coming at the Aggies with the pass, regardless of score. They ought to be able to play their A game that makes them a tough out in the Big 10 against this defense. And given that Texas AM loves to blow second half leads, its the perfect offense/defense matchup to keep a back door cover alive in the even the Aggies do push them game beyond the number for a spell. They gave up almost 200 2nd half points, infamously blowing so many late leads that all of the choke jobs tied for third place together on Doc Saturday’s list of comebacks of the year. This team is not the model heavy chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win.. There will be loads of offense in this one, but I trust the Wildcat coaching brass over the sideline in transition Aggies. The Wildcats might still be looking for the first bowl win in program history, but they’ve already become clutch postseason moneymakers. They’ve covered three years in a row, in similar spots, double digit dogs against a Big 12 or SEC team. Each team they pushed the game to the limit. With the added prep dont be surprised to see a Kain Coulter package give the O an extra spark with a new wrinkle or two to get Drake Dunsmore the ball, wide open with a lots of room to run. Besides, even if this game does spin out of control for Northwestern, I feel there’s still an excellent chance a late, worthless Persa to Ebert score will get us the cover.

Vandy -1 over Cincy x 1………Its an 8/9 game in the NCAA First Round disguised as a bowl game. Whatever it really is, it gives us a chance to quickly highlight one of the year’s greatest blunders in college football. Maryland’s surprise dismissal of Ralph Freidgen and even more curious and non-inspiring selection of Randy Edsall to replace him. Edsall rewrote the record books in ways to throw your new players under the bus. It was a miserable season in College Park, one that moved into debacle by October and surpassed record tire fire levels during the second half of their epic collapse against NC State last month. Meanwhile, James Franklin, who had been the head coach in waiting when the Freidgen regime was blown up, moved over to Nashville to take perennial SEC Vanderbilt. All he did was lead Vanderbilt to just their third bowl game in the last 30 years and currently has a top-25 recruiting class percolation. Given the mediocre current state of some of the usual SEC suspects, Franklin has the Dores in position to be factors in the division race. I can hear Friedgen’s jolly last laugh all the way over here. As far as this game, the Bearcats get QB Zach Collaras back in this showcase of good Big East offense vs good SEC defense. I’ll take the SEC D, please. Read more »

Man, I think I drink too much during the holidays. Its beginning to impact my dreams. Last night I had a doozy. I dreamt I had bet a double digit dog, they scored 56 points, but still didnt cover. Thats surreal. I woke up in a cold sweat. Worse than those dreams when you’re being chased, but moving so quick sand slow you can feel the evil spirits chasing you on your backs. I couldnt go back to sleep after that. I need to stop with the brandy in the egg nog or something because these are getting downright hallucingenic.  But it was just a dream, right? Lets go collect those Washington winnings and get a little breakfest.

Ridiculous. Sublime. Obviously a bad beat. A day after somehow losing money despite going 4-2, we’re on the wrong side of ATS history with the highest scoring double digit ever to fail to cover. At least if we’re going to lose, we’re doing it in style. Its been the unluckiest back to back days during a bowl run we remember having. Today’s action begins in minutes. We’re beyond intrigued to see how we get bit in the ass today. Pull up chair. Pour a drink. You wont want to miss it

ARMED FORCES BOWL, NOON, BYU VS TULSA. LINES, TULSA -2.5/3, o/u 60

BYU +3 (-125) over Tulsa X 2……I know a lot of people get excited about Tulsa because their only four losses have been tto top 10 teams. But those games were such woodsheds that they were controlled, offensive scrimmages for those teams against the Golden Hurricane. So that doesnt impress me much as it relates here. Both teams have good offenses. Only one team has a decent defense, thats BYU. Cougars have too much in the trenches.  I feel that BYU is a bit more legit of a program, where Tulsa is still a offense first, gimmicky type of team. I’ll take the points with what I think is the better team, double it up and make a wish that my luck is a bit better than the last couple of days.

More to come…..just wanted the quick post before this noon kick

 So far, so good this year in the bowl season and the JCB’s annual insane experiment in betting as many of the games as possible. We had to survive some late rallies last night, but we went 2-0 in the first night with mulitple bowls games in 10 days. Overall, the JCB is 9-6 ATS this year in bowl season. Breaking that down a bit, it’s 6-4  on actual game sides and 3-2 on props. We’ve just put half units on the props, but all the sides were for full, single units, except for our call on La Tech on the points against TCU last week and last night’s NC State play. Those have been the only double plays so far of the bowl season and going 2-0 in them has given us most of our profit. Bowl season is one third of the way complete and we’re up four units. The next four days are going to be fast and furious and gobble up the second third of the FBS postseason. We’d be stoked if we doubled that number, so lets do this.

MILITARY BOWL, 4:30, TOLEDO VS AIR FORCE. LINES, TOLEDO -3, O/U 70.5

We’re always on the hunt for underdogs that will outrush their opponents, especially in bowl games. Despite the more pass happy nature of modern football, teams that are catching points who end up outrushing their opponents almost always cover the spread. Of course, what help is that? We dont know the boxscores before the games. Wait, do we? Somebody get on that for us. Absent of that, it does always have us on the lookout for matchups that just scream ‘this puppy will outrush the favorite.’ Its why we’re drawn to teams like Navy and Air Force when those service academies are underdogs. So, you would think we’d be all over the Pilots today in this Military Bowl. After all, they’re catching points with their powerful #2 ranked rushing attack that churns out over 300 yards on the ground a game against a MAC Defense. But, no. We’re shunning our love for rushing dogs, our distrust of MAC defenses and risking the bad karma of betting against an academy in a bowl sponsored by the military. Surely, they wouldnt pay off the refs, would they? Nah, not our government.

I cant lie to you readers. I’m taking Toledo mostly because they are my hometown team and who wants to be a Bah Humbug Scrouge and bet against the local team in a bowl game? Not me. I’m cheering for the Rockets, the line is small, they’re more talented, so I’ll take a stab. I know you come here for better, more smart analysis than that, but when you’re making a Homer pick, intelligent discourse gets put to the back burner. Besides, there is always Chitownblue’s hoopage insights like on tonight’s IU/MSU game if you want to chew on some meaty insights.

But there is some educated breakdown in all of this. Yes, I know Toledo is in the MAC. And, yes, I know there defenses are pretty shaky. But, I actually like this Toledo stop unit. Yes, I said that. Yes, I know this team infamously allowed more than 60 points in back to back games last month. But they’re not that bad against the run, ranking 25th nationally, so they have a chance I feel to slow this Air Force triple option attack on enough drives. The Rockets struggle against the pass, but thats not something Air Force is all the good at or something they test the water enough to take advantage of. Toledo might be from the MAC, but they have the better defense here. Air Force just isnt good on that side of the ball. They are way down at 86th in the FEI Defensive Efficiency rankings, one of the worst among bowl teams. Toledo is 60th and have shown a better ability to get off the field outside of those strange back to backers against Northern and Western in early November. But getting back to the Pilots, they are 100th in available yards allowed and 96th in value drives allowed. Both offenses will land their punches, but based on those numbers, I dont think there is a chance Air Force’s defense can slow this team down. I just like Toledo’s three headed monster at tailback, their two efficient quarterbacks and the explosiveness of Eric Page. Read more »