College Basketball

Big Ten First Looks: Michigan State

November 11, 2011
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Now he just needs to become OK at basketball

Michigan State plays North Carolina (on a BATTLESHIP(!)) tonight at 7 PM.

2010/2011 was something of a shocking year for the Michigan State Spartans. Coach Tom Izzo returned three double-digit scorers and five players with more than 10 starts from the previous season’s co-conference champion, final four club. Senior Kalin Lucas had been the best player on two Spartan Final Four teams and a third Sweet-Sixteen team as classmate Durrell Summers, fresh off scoring 19 points per game in the NCAA tournament was expected to have a star-turn. The Spartans, with three players on pre-season all-conference teams, were among the favorites for the conference title.

Instead, the Spartans finished with Izzo’s worst record since his second year at Michigan State, struggling to a .500 conference mark, equaled only by the Paul Davis-led teams of 2005 and 2006. The team markedly struggled in the pre-season, losing to top teams like UConn and Duke, but getting demolished by Syracuse on a neutral court, and losing by double digits on their home floor to Texas– something unheard of in Izzo’s career. After dismissing Sophomore Korie Luscious, the Spartans were swept by their in-state rivals on their way to barely scratching out an NCAA tournament berth, and a first-round exit.

The team’s best player is Draymond Green, who led the team in rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals last year while finishing second in scoring. Green often spent too much time doing a rubinesque impression of Magic Johnson, standing on the perimeter, distributing the ball, and shooting three-pointers. As the only interior player with a track-record, he’s going to need to take fewer treys and head to the key more often. After Senior Delvon Roe called it quits as a result of persistent knee problems, Green’s running mates are disappointing (Adreian Payne), enormous and disappointing (Derrick Nix), or without experience (Alex Guana). Branden Dawson, a quality rebounder with a nose for the ball from the small-forward spot could help in this regard as well.

The smaller three positions, however, present no fewer depth problems. The Spartans return a grand total of two players across the three positions who received any minutes last year – likely Point Guard Keith Appling, and Austin Thorton, a role player. Appling, a huge recruit who flashed promise last year, figures to be the closest the Spartans will come to replace Kalin Lucas, if a little less secure with the ball. The Spartans will likely depend on a red-shirt freshman (Russell Byrd) and two additional true freshmen to fill out the back-court while a third true freshman is the prohibitive favorite to start at small forward.

Per usual, Izzo recruited a top-notch class to come in, landing top-20 recruit Branden Dawson in addition to state player of the year candidates Travis Trice (Ohio) and Branden Kearney (Michigan). In addition, he snagged Valparaiso transfer Brandon Wood for his final year to bolster the back-court. Dawson, the most ready of the group to play, should endure no pressure from Thorton for the starting role while Wood will most likely slot into some role in the starting back-court. Either would be a significant upgrade from Durrell Summers’ disastrous conference campaign. Read more »

The Return of Big Ten Hoops

November 7, 2011
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Say Hi to the conferences two best players

Say Hi to the conferences two best players

Well, last year certainly ended ugly, didn’t it? Despite being KenPom’s #1 conference from wire-to-wire during the course of the year, and sporting the #1 team in the land, the Big Ten produced two meager Sweet 16 performances – Wisconsin’s somewhat predictable defeat at the hands of the Championship Game-bound Butler Bulldogs, and Ohio State’s stunning loss to Kentucky. Only two other clubs advanced past the opening round, as experts wondered if the Big Ten – professed all year to be “loaded”, was a bit over-rated. Tournament games, of course are an imperfect measure – a single game doesn’t wash away a full season, and Ohio State’s dominance can hardly be washed away because the best shooting team in the nation had a single 33% shooting performance.

That, of course was last year, but this year, despite the exodus, has KenPom once against calling the Big 10 the nation’s top conference. Clearly, this comes as something of a surprise. Half the players we tabbed on this site as All-Conference selections are gone – taking two top performers from conference heavy-weights Ohio State and Purdue each. Purdue loses nearly its entire offense, while Wisconsin loses half of theirs. Michigan loses the conference’s highest-usage player, Illinois loses nearly an entire starting lineup, and Michigan State loses their best offensive and defensive players – their second best facilitator and their best rebounder.

There’s a ton of new faces as well – Ohio State, Illinois, and Michigan State bring in the 8th, 13th, and 19th best recruiting classes in the nation, respectively, while both Michigan and Indiana add highly-touted pieces to their roster. Further, some old faces will show up new – Purdue’s Robbie Hummel will take another go at leading the Boilermakers to the Final Four. Hell, there’s even an entirely new TEAM (that, in contrast to the conference, returns 9 of 10 rotation players from last year. In the place of this mass-defection, Indiana, Iowa, and Michigan – teams who relied on a bevy of freshmen and sophomores – look to take steps up the conference hierarchy (we think at least two will succeed).

Over the next few weeks, the JCB will be walking you through the Big Ten landscape, team-by-team. But here, today, we’d like to start the season as we closed last year: by handing out some pre-season awards.

Player of the Year – Jared Sullinger, Ohio State Read more »

NCAA Championship Game: Butler +3.5, Book It

April 4, 2011
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Here we are at the final stop. A March full of ups and downs, that sprayed compelling storyline one after another at us, comes down to one final game to determine the ultimate winner. Butler and UConn advanced into tonight’s title game, winning thrilling, down-to-the wire semifinal games Saturday night.  The last one standing will be the champion of one of the best NCAA Tournaments Ive seen in my lifetime. Hasnt it seemed like almost every game has gone down to the wire? And, we weren’t able to go a single day without at least one result that left us shaking our heads and ripping apart brackets. It’s been a fun ride and, frankly, the two teams that have played the best this month are the rightful ones still standing and chasing the one shining moment.

I am a little disappointed, however, in the professional gambling community. Those folks have certainly banked more rolls than I can ever imagine, so far be it from me to offer any of them a lecture. But I am surprised to find out how much the wiseguys have beenlast  taking a bath the month by betting against Butler. ESPN’s gambling beat writer Chad Millman has been tracking a core of wiseguys, and he reiterated their woeful luck on the Bulldogs during a podcast last week with Bill Simmons. This really surprises me. I expect the public to be suckered into bets based on the name on the uniform. But not the folks who do this as their livlihood.  I expect the public to be swayed by the athletic bodies of Florida, but I expect the wiseguys to know that Brad Stephens will coach the pants off Billy Donovan when the chips are down. I expect the public to fall in love with Big 10 and Big East powerhouses, but I expect the wiseguys to know, after watching Butler all these years, that they will out Pitt, Pitt and out Wisco, Wisco and that those teams would just play right into Butler’s hands when the rubber meets the road. I expect the public to panic and finally jump on the VCU bandwagon in the Final Four, but I expect the wiseguys to know that if there is one defense out there that will put an end to rain making three point arsenal of the Rams it would be the Bulldogs. But according to Millman, the pro’s have been duped into betting against the upstart Bulldog’s second straight run to the championship game as much as the betting public, which largely only pays attention to college hoops three weeks a year. (Although to be fair, some of Millman’s wiseguys were on Butler Saturday night and he reports today that suddenly everyone is on board with the JCB and riding Butler tonight. Not sure how I feel about that.)

It disappoints me that its taken so long for them to wise up on Butler because the Bulldogs are the kind of team that, by all accounts, most wiseguys should love to back. They play great defense, they are well coached, they make big shots, have a ton of versatility, they have disciplne, they never panic, they control pace come hell or highwater and they dont need to play their best game to win. Most teams need everything to fall in place to win. Not Butler. Your money always has a shot with them because they dont get blown out and they always know how to manage a game and give themselves a shot to win it in the end. Considering they’re catching points in most of these games, that’s a formula I will take any time. Pitt and Florida might have been unlucky in losing to Butler, but even had they made one more play, the Bulldogs would still have covered the spread in those games and cashed a winning ticket.

We’re two years into this–and its not like Butler wasnt winning or covering the spread in tournament games before these runs–so its shocking to read about sharps doubting this club. Hell, the only reason I am in a mental position to easily ride Butler, and a host of other mid-majors during this event, is from direct how-to advice via Millman and his band of wiseguys. I read his book The Odds several years back, and the one piece of advice that stuck with me was that if you want to win betting college basketball, learn about the smaller leagues, and know as much about the the Missouri Valley, Sun Belt and CAA as the Big East. So, I track those league religously throughout the winter, on the hunt for live mid-majors to win money off of once March rolls around.

The reward for doing so? The JCB followers get to win on Butler and VCU while the rest of the world losses on them. You go 2-1 betting on the Colonial Athletic teams in the opening round.  You win money on the late game comeback, back door cover by Oakland, instead of losing money on Texas. You are on the right side of one on the tournament’s biggest shots, a three pointer at the buzzer by Wofford to go from 11 down to 8 down and covering the 9-point spread. While the rest of the world, Simmons, Millman and the wiseguys included, lament their luck, we celebrate ours. Yes, that was a lucky shot and break, but we were on the Terriers in that spot after studying them for weeks. Being prepared at least had us on the right side of the luckiest break in the whole event. Score one for making your own luck. So, its because of Millman and the wiseguys that every year we ride the mid-majors to a profit  in the NCAA Tournament until those upstarts are eliminated (usually, I’ll point out in games where they still cover the spread). It’s just a little puzzling that they ignored their own advice. Read more »

Big Ten Hoops: The Second Round

March 20, 2011
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#1 Duke (-11.5) vs. #8 Michigan

In one of the most surprising results of the first round (not surprising that Michigan won, more surprising in how they won), the Wolverines put the wood do the Tennessee Volunteers – out-performing the Vols in virtually every metric save free-throw shooting. The Wolverines had five players score in double-figures, and saw PG Darius Morris thoroughly control the game, despite failing to be one of the five.

For their trouble, the Wolverines get Duke – one of the four best teams in the nation. As you’d expect from a team ranked #2 in the nation by Ken Pomeroy, the Blue Devils excel across the board – they’re the #4 offense and the #2 defense in college basketball, excelling in all components of shooting and shooting defense. The only conceivable chinks in the armor are that they’re an average rebounding team, and particularly vulnerable on their defensive glass – a spot the Wolverines can’t take advantage (they’re the 337th “best” offensive rebounding team). They accomplish their excellent defense primarily through size – this is the 4th largest team in effective height, the second tallest the Wolverines have faced, short of Illinois.

So, there’s no immediate answers to “how to beat Duke” by looking at their scouting profile. How did the teams that beat them do it? Florida State stifled them from the floor – 31% shooting. Florida State, however, was the #1 team the nation in eFG% against this year (Michigan is 145th). St. John’s slaughtered them in every way imaginable – shooting 17 points higher, at a torrid 58% (Michigan was a better shooting team, but St. John’s punished them in the paint, something Michigan won’t do), winning the turnover battle (Michigan seems to succeed here more than Duke), and taking 33 free-throws (Michigan takes fewer FT’s than all buy 3 teams in college basketball). Virginia Tech held their shooting in check, and out-rebounded them on the offensive glass. North Carolina held them to 35% shooting. In short – if you can keep their shooting percentages down, Duke is beatable, provided you make some shots yourself. Can Michigan do this? The Wolverines have the 127th best eFG% defense in the nation, despite being 27th in overall defense (defensive rebounding is their best trait). Duke’s offense is, however, somewhat three-point dependent, and the Wolverines are relatively adept at preventing them (57th).

It will take some doing for the Wolverines to win, but this isn’t a team that gets blown out. Since a horrid skid in January, their worst loss was by 8 points in Columbus, and this team lost the Buckeyes by a combined 20 points across three games, took Kansas to overtime, lost to Wisconsin by one, and Syracuse by 3.  In a word – this spread is too high. Take the Wolverines to cover this.

#1 OSU (-11) vs. #9 George Mason

George Mason, in terms of their scouting profile, is a mirror of OSU – both teams excel shooting the ball, and defending shots, both teams rarely turn the ball over. The primary difference is OSU’s substantial advantage on the boards. The Buckeyes have played dominating stretches of basketball this year – they’ve really only fallen when an opposing player goes lights out – Jordan Taylor’s 27 points, E’Twaun Moore’s 38. Read more »

Bracket News: Gonzaga – BYU

March 19, 2011
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After a great two days of non-stop hoops, you can’t ask for much more than two more days of games. Vegas is expecting more biting of nails today, as the largest line as of noon  was Pitt -7.5 over  Butler. Not a lot of previewing to do today, as you’re probably pretty familiar with the winners from Thursday, but I’d like to dive into the only double-digit seed favored today and talk about Gonzaga vs BYU. It’s scheduled for a 7:45 tip-off and the 11-seeded Bulldogs are one point favorites over Jimmer and the Cougars.

When Gonzaga handled St. Johns in the first round and I saw this match-up would go down, I planned on writing a post telling you to take whatever points BYU was giving and bet heavy on the Zags. Well, obviously it’s Gonzaga giving some points, but I’d still lean that way.

First things first, let’s talk about Jimmer. BYU can only go as far as he can carry them and Gonzaga will have their hands full. The Zags are no strangers to great scorers though. This season they have played four of the nation’s most prolific scorers: Kansas State’s Jacob Pullen, Baylor’s LaceDarius Dunn, Xavier’s Tu Holloway, and St. Johns guard Dwight Hardy. Those four stars shot 26-64 (41%) and the stars scored an average of 21 points against the Zags. Now Jimmer is the best scorer in the country so the task stands taller, but the key is to make him take a ton of shots to get his 30 and Gonzaga has enough experience to get it done. In all three BYU losses this year, Jimmer scored 30, but needed 26, 26, and 25 shots to get there. So they don’t to stop Jimmer, just frustrate him and make him earn his 30 points to the detriment of the team.

Of course, the other big story surrounding BYU will play into this one as well. The absence of Brandon Davies does not bode well for the Cougars in stopping the Gonzaga bigs. The Zags dominated St. Johns on the boards and will look for a similar recipe tonight. Bulldog center Robert Sacre had a bad shooting night against the Red Storm, but gathered 4 of the Zags’ 12 offensive boards. BYU gave up 14 offensive boards in their conference tourney loss to SDSU.

BYU impressed me against Wofford and when they are hitting threes, they can beat anybody. Gonzaga was even more impressive however. The Zags made 28 field goals in round one and 20 of those were assisted. They didn’t get a great game from Sacre, but Steven Gray had 16 points, 6 boards, and 5 assists, while guard Marquis Carter had his best scoring game of the season with 24.

Gonzaga has shown it can slow down prolific scorers enough to allow their multiple offensive weapons to win them games. I do expect BYU to keep it close, but I think Gonzaga ices it from the line down the stretch and moves on to the second weekend. Read more »