College Basketball

Big Ten First Look: Northwestern

November 18, 2011
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The Cats need more of this from Shurna, and less not this

The Cats need more of this from Shurna, and less not this

Two years ago, Northwestern entered the 2009/2010 season tabbing it as the year they would finally crack the NCAA tourney, returning four starters and four of their five top starters after their first post-season appearance (in the NIT) in nearly two decades. With Juice Thompson a rising junior and John Shurna and Luka Mirkovic rising sophomores, the future seemed bright. A pre-season injury to senior leader Kevin Coble derailed the Wildcats near-term plans, but surprising things happened. Shurna, the fourth option on the previous year’s team, broke out, scoring nearly 19 points a game as he, Michael Thompson, and true freshman surprise Drew Crawford led the Wildcats to a near identical finish as the year prior, despite missing Coble. Last year, then, became “the year” for the Wildcats. This time, no injury derailed them – they just had a near identical season. Shurna played slightly worse, Thompson played slightly better, and Crawford remained the same guy he was as a freshman.
 
Now, the Wildcats see their window of opportunity slamming shut. Thompson, their most consistent player over their mini-renaissance, is gone. Shurna, always a reluctant “star” will be depended on even more. Crawford needs to show progress, and the Wildcats badly need improvements from guards Alex Marcotullio and JerShon Cobb.
 
Northwestern really only does one thing well – shoot. This was the nation’s 18th best offense, 20th best shooting team, and in the top 50 in 2-point, 3-point, and free-throw percentage. They excel at taking care of the ball (though this may decline without Thompson’s 4:1 assist/turnover ratio), and adequately protect the defensive glass, thanks to Luka Mirkovic. After that, there is nothing this team does that is even remotely average. They yield high shooting percentages, can’t force turnovers, and foul surprisingly often.
 
The Wildcats were hoping that true freshman Tre Demps could fill Thompson’s role as a scoring point-guard, but torn ligaments in his shoulder over the summer make that unlikely. The job, then, will likely fall to Marcotullio, a solid shooter and adequate ball-handler who can at least guard the ball (he’s the only person on the roster who has shown himself capable of stealing the ball).
 
With essentially the same roster, it’s unreasonable to expect defensive competency here, the only improvement will need to come by squeezing every drop from an already high-functioning offense. The key will be with the star – can Shurna step up and the man? Shurna, at times, was a shrinking violet last year, watching his team lose as he only took 5-7 shots – hardly star material. Shurna is a phenomenal shooter – probably the best in the conference, he just needs to be 20 point scorer he was the year prior.
 
Crawford and Cobb, for their part, need to adjust the focus of their games. Between the two of them, they took 238 three-point attempts despite combining for 32% shooting behind the arc. Both are tall, rangy players capable of slashing to the basket – perhaps it would be better to leave the bulk of the shooting to Shurna and Marcotullio. Both, also, need to step up on defense. On a roster visually bereft of athletes, Crawford and Cobb are the only candidates to have some defensive acumen. Of course, as the season begins, Cobb finds himself benched for virtually un-recruited true freshman Dave Sobolewski.
 
Northwestern looks again be a middle-of-the-pack club in the Big 10, possibly battling Nebraska, a youthful Illinois squad, and an improving Hoosier team for the league’s final NCAA bids. If it doesn’t happen this year, Carmody’s window may be shut – with Shurna a Senior, it’s hard to see a Crawford/Cobb/Marcotullio nucleus reaching the tournament.

Big Ten First Look: Purdue

November 18, 2011
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If we see this again, all bets are off

If we see this again, all bets are off

Without a doubt, the most difficult Big 10 team to put a finger on during the pre-season is the Purdue Boilermakers. To start, while they only lose two contributors from last year, they lose a ton of production. JaJuan Johnson was both the Big Ten Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the year, and a consensus first-team All-American, averaging a 20/9 with two blocks per game. Classmate E’Twaun Moore, while not quite as decorated, still managed first-team All-Conference honors, 18 points per game and was the teams second best rebounder, facilitator, and best perimeter defender. The two accounted for 80% of the team’s trips to the foul line, and very few baskets occurred without one of the two having their finger-prints on it. Despite Purdue being one of the conference’s and nations’ top teams last year, normally, you’d think they lost too much to sustain that level of performance.
 
Not many teams, however, can claim to lose a conference Player of the Year one year, and add a Player of the Year candidate the following year (unless you’re Ohio State and recruiting ridiculously, which Purdue isn’t). We refer, of course, to Robbie Hummel – a rising fifth-year senior who missed all of last year due to a knee injury (his second in his collegiate career). Hummel is a two-time first-team all-conference performer and, as a junior received All-America honors as a third-teamer. If he’s healthy, he, along with Jared Sullinger and Jordan Taylor are the favorites for player of the year. Hummel, simply, is felt in every aspect of the game – he shoots efficiently from anywhere on the floor, is an elite defensive-rebounder, draws fouls, protects the ball, and is the best passer from the post in the conference. Purdue’s hopes of continued dominance will rest on his shoulders.
 
The Purdue offense was among the best in the conference last year, and it’s hard to imagine that won’t take a step back in terms of overall quality, but still retain their conference ranking. They excel, chiefly, at taking care of the ball, which started with Lewis Jackson. Jackson had twice the number of assists than turnovers and, as a bonus, turned into a respectable scorer in Big Ten play – averaging over 10 points per game. In order to maintain their offensive production, the Boilermakers will look to Sophomore Terone Johnson, who struggled in Big 10 play last year, and freshman Anthony Johnson – described as a pure shooter, to make up for Moore’s absence. Terone, a rotation member from last year who shot terribly in his first exposure to the Big 10 will be the likely starter. Sophomore Travis Carroll, who proved to be an effective rebounder and defender, will start at Center while Senior Ryne Smith repeats his role as three-point specialist.
 
The Boilermakers return a slew of role players to help off the bench. Kelsey Barlow is offensively limited but a defensive whirlwind. John Hart saw his season limited by injury but proved himself to be a valuable offensive spark off the bench, nailing 36% of his three-point attempts. DJ Byrd potentially has the most talent on the roster, another elite defender with an adequate jump-shot. Freshmen Jacob Lawson and Donnie Hale will combine with the injured Sandy Marcius to give front-court depth.
 
Purdue’s defense last year nearly matched their offense and, despite losing the Defensive Player of the Year (though Johnson, while good, was probably not deserving of the honor) and ball-hawk E’Twaun Moore, should still excel. On a per-minute basis, Kelsey Barlow is the conference’s biggest turnover machine, picking up nearly four steals per 40 minutes. John Hart, DJ Byrd, and Lewis Jackson all, on a per-minute basis, compare favorably to Moore as well. Carroll won’t be the shot-blocker Johnson was, but should make up for it by being stouter in post. Johnson excelled as a help-defender, but his slight frame could be overwhelmed by the likes of Trebor Mbakwe (37 points in two games against Purdue) and Jared Sullinger (42 points). Carroll will not suffer the same problems. Hummel and Marcius will provide more size up-front than they had last year, helping their one glaring weakness.

In their last two games, Purdue struggled to one point victories over the likes of High Point and Iona, allowing 45% and 48% shooting performances, without significant domination on the glass or at the stripe against the undersized clubs. The development of Marcius and the two freshman big-men will be key to e Boilermakers’ season (none have warranted significant time in the thin front-court). The good news is that Robbie Hummel appears to have found his offensive game, while the bad is that the lineup is somewhat in flux – the two Johnsons and Kelsey Barlow have each taken one start at the final guard slot.
 
Purdue’s fortunes will be dependent on Hummel. With him anywhere near his old level of performance, they’re among the Big Ten favorites, featuring another season of solid offensive and defensive play. If Hummel is greatly compromised, they like sink towards the middle of the pack – a poor offensive team with an intense enough defense to carry themselves into the NCAA tournament. This team could finish anywhere from first to sixth in the conference, where likely rests on Hummel’s oft-injured knees.

Big 10 Feast Week: Purdue, Northwestern Drive South

November 17, 2011
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We’ve had a game on an Aircraft Carrier, a 24-hour marathon with made-for-TV tips and enough top-25 upsets and near misses to distract from all the football around us. Today, the lineup of Feast Week Tournaments fire up and two Big 10 teams feature in the events.

The remade Purdue Boilermakers are down island for the Puerto Rico  Tip Off, where they open against Iona (1pm on ESPNU), a projected mid range team from the MAAC. Chitownblue will have his First Look at the Boilers later today, but we’ll all get a chance to see how they look without longtime standouts E-twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson again good, NCAA-ready teams. We’ll see just how effective Robbie Hummell can be coming off a pair of ACL tears. Will they continue launching three pointers like they have in their first two games? Will they get any better on the defensive glass? Which is the real Boiler team, the one that woodshedded perennial Missouri Valley contender Northern Iowa or the one that survived a terrifying one-point game against High Point.

The Boilers would match up with either Temple or Western Michigan tomorrow depending on today’s result. The other side of the bracket includes Maryland vs Alabama and Wichita State vs Colorado. The Tide are the only ranked team in the this field. The Shockers are defending NIT Champs and as a favorite to win the MVC are a strong candidate for even an at large bid out of mid-majordom. The next four days are huge for them to stake an early deserving claim for a bid.

As for Purdue, they’re hardly the favorite. They’re slight chalk against the Gaels today of 3.5 points, but Iona is a very similar style of team as Richmond and VCU, two teams that handled the Boilers a year ago. They’re +300 to win this tournament, but thats not chalk. Temple and Alabama at +250 share that role. Although, in a way, it’s Wichita thats chalk as you can bet the ‘Field’ at a +200 payout and get a group that includes Iona, Colorado and Western in addition to the Shockers.

Today’s Boilers/Gaels contest might be the best game of the day. I’d be impressed if Purdue won today and notched another win in this field. There are too many question marks to put a 3-0 expectation on them in this event, although its a possibility. If the Boilers go 2-1 and finish at least in third place, then I think Purdue might ened up a few games better in Big 10 play than Chitownblue predicted last week in his Big 10 preview. A fourth place finish pretty much confirms some of our current expectations. Playing in the loser’s bracket after today might mean overcoming the losses of Moore and Johnson are going to be even harder than anticipated.

Meanwhile in South Carolina, the Northwestern Wildcats play in the Charleston Classic where they hope to do something they havent done in the last couple years in those campaigns fatal attempts at breaking their NCAA Tournament: make some sort of out of conference statement. The Big Question this year for the Cats is will Northwestern finally play in the NCAA Tournament.  They open play today against LSU where the Cats are 9-point favorites. Yes, Northwestern is almost double digit chalk against LSU. That should be enough cold water for your face to remind you that this here college basketball is indeed a different sport than college football.  They would play either Tulsa or Western Kentucky, a pair of brand name midmajors, tomorrow based on today’s results. The other side of the bracket includes VCU vs Seton Hall and St Joe’s vs Georgia Tech. I cant find any odds for for the winner of this tournament, but the Wildcats have been dubbed favorites by a enough ESPN pundits in their Feast Week Tournament overviews, that I expect Northwestern to at least pull down a pair of wins. There is a feeling if the Cats cant get to the title game, then its a lost weekend down south. Project them against VCU in the finals, however, and I lean towards the Rams who’ve always thrived in bracket situations. I might have more expectations on the Cats to place higher in this event than the Boilers, but thats because the field is just a smidge or two weaker. But, like Purdue, if the Cats cant get two wins this weekend or get relegated to the loser’s bracket today, then maybe its time to downgrade a lot of hopes. Read more »

Big Ten First Look: Ohio State

November 16, 2011
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Last year, the Ohio State Buckeyes were the best team in college basketball. Yes, they lost in the Sweet-Sixteen to a criminally under-rated Kentucky team, but the Buckeyes, over the course of the season, demonstrated themselves to be the most accomplished team. It started with their offense – they featured four players who nailed more than 37% of their three-point attempts, each attempting at least two a game. Normally, that would be enough, but the Buckeyes’ also had one of the conferences two dominant post players – Freshman Jared Sullinger. Defensively, they were no slouch – forcing turnovers, rebounding well, and committing extremely few fouls – they were even somewhat unlucky as their opponents were, collectively, the best % free-throw shooters in the nation, nailing 74% against the Buckeyes.

Ohio State doesn’t come into the 2011/2012 campaign completely intact – they lost 5th year seniors David Lighty and Jon Diebler, both important role players. To say how much experience these two had, they are actually older than three starters on the NBA’s Oklahoma Thunder. Diebler was, plainly, the best shooter in the nation, sporting an absurd 70.6% eFG% – the best in the nation. Diebler nailed over half of his 6 three-point attempts a game. Lighty, on the other hand, was a jack of all trades – finishing second on the team in rebounding, steals, and assists while scoring over 12 points a game on efficient shooting. The best wing-defender in the Big 10, Lighty will be missed in nearly every phase of the game.

Despite losing those two pieces, the Buckeyes return plenty. First, and most important, is Sullinger. One of two players in the Big 10 to average a double/double, Sullinger sits among the nation’s leaders in scoring, rebounding, shooting percentage, fouls drawn, turnover rate, offensive rebounding, and defensive rebounding. In all, he was one of the finest offensive players in the nation. Senior William Buford, the constant second-banana, also returns. Like a metronome, Buford rattles off 15 points, a few assists, top-notch shooting percentages (44% from three last year), and a steal every game. As a complimentary player, it’s hard to find a better one. Finally, sophomore Aaron Craft returns. Craft was hardly an offensive star, but shot very well from behind the arc as a freshman (37%), posted over a 2:1 assist/turnover ratio, and was the most dangerous ball-hawk in the conference on the defensive end. At worst, he’s the third-best point guard in the conference.

The Buckeyes will predominantly look to sophomore DeShaun Thomas to replace the scoring of Lighty and Diebler. A five-star recruit, Thomas provided instant-offense off of the bench, and will likely slot into the small forward position after scoring 7.5 points a game in only fourteen minutes. There is some danger here – Thomas was, simply, the biggest gunner in the conference, taking a mind-bending 30.5% of the shots when he was on the floor. Thomas also provides an elite offensive-rebounding presence. Rounding out the starting five, the Buckeyes seem to favor a three guard lineup featuring sophomore Lenzelle Smith, Jr. – a player who has, thus far in his career, justified virtually no playing time. This three guard lineup lacks the rebounding of last years, with the loss of Lighty, but the rugged Thomas should help make up for any muscle the Buckeyes lose in Williams.

The bench will be nearly completely green, with only Jordan Sibert, a veteran of 207 minutes in his freshman year, the only person with any game experience. There is, however, plenty of talent – Sibert, a sophomore, was a top 50 recruit, Shannon Scott (the likely backup for Craft), and Sam Thompson (the likely backup for Thomas). Freshman Trey McDonald has Big 10 ready size to spell Sullinger or Williams off the bench, and Amir Williams brings elite talent, but a slight frame to the front court. Coach Thad Matta only played seven players last year, so it’s possible that Sibert, in essence backs up both guards while McDonald and Williams. give the front-court players a breather. Read more »

Big Ten First Look: Nebraska

November 14, 2011
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Jorge Brian Diaz is Very Tall

Jorge Brian Diaz is Very Tall

Nebraska’s 2010/2011 went much the same as it has during most of Coach Doc Sadler’s tenure – the Huskers were a mediocre team in the Big 12, finishing slightly below .500, and tenuously on the NCAA bubble, inevitably sentenced to an early NIT exit. Nebraska was by no means a bad team, but they weren’t terribly good – they could only beat the very worst teams on the road, and, a late-season win over Texas excepted, couldn’t been good teams at home. A non-conference slate that didn’t see a single pure road game granted the Huskers their best record in Sadler’s tenure.

The Huskers return nine players that averaged over ten minutes per game in more than 25 games last year, and add a four-player recruiting class that’s bereft of standouts, but includes JUCO transfer Dylan Talley, a JUCO All-American, and former America East Conference freshman of the year. Talley, a point guard, will likely get heavy minutes. This team, needless to say, figures to play a ton of bodies.

One they won’t be playing, however, is last year’s leading scorer and facilitator Lance Jeter. In addition to being the leading scorer and an efficient shooter, Jeter was the team’s most solid ball-handler, and the only guard on the roster whose assist rate exceeded his turnover rate. Talley, along with junior guards Toney McCray, Brandon Richardson, and Caleb Walker – all of whom started over 20 games last year – will try to make up for his absence, but McCray, a 40% three-point shooter, figures to shoulder most of the scoring load.

Scoring, however, is not what this team does well – per Ken Pomeroy, Nebraska would have been the worst offensive team in the Big Ten last year, with only Iowa remotely as bad. Nebraska’s strength lay on the defensive end – they were the 24th best tempo-free unit in the nation (this would have been fourth in the conference), and excelled at defensive rebounding (6th in the nation) and two-point defense (also 6th in the nation). This displays an interesting non-sequiter in this team: despite the fact that 7 of their 10 rotation players last year (and, likely, this year) were guards, they were actually fourth in the nation in effective height, thanks to 6’11” Jorge Diaz, 6’11” Andre Almeida, and 6’10” Brandon Ubel. Simply – the Huskers are just tough to shoot over, particularly inside. Of that group, Diaz is the most reliable scorer – leading returning players with 10.6 points per game.

Because of the huge rotation, nobody on the roster puts up huge numbers, but the key to the season will be McCray and Diaz, the two returning scorers. McCray is the only remaining outside shooter on the roster, and, by rate, is actually the most effective rebounder on the team. Diaz, while not on the level of other big men in the conference like Sullinger, Mbakwe, Besabe, or Hummel, is a solid player who manages to anchor the Husker defense in the paint. Read more »