College Basketball

Big Ten First Look: Wisconsin

November 29, 2011
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Which Wisconsin basketball player of the past 10 years is this? All of them? (It's Ben Brust)

The Badgers play North Carolina tonight in the Big 10/ACC Challenge.

Last year, the Badgers had their typical sort of year – they contended for the Big Ten title, though didn’t quite make it, followed their strong regular season up with a mind-numbing loss in the conference tourney (a beyond horrid 33-36 loss to Penn State), and then made the Sweet 16, where they finally lost to a superior club. The Badgers swept their home slate (Bo Ryan sports a 93% winning percentage at home) and struggled against quality opponents on the road – extending their losing streak against ranked foes on the road to eight games.

The Badgers, despite losing all-conference level performer Jon Leuer and quality shooter Keaton Nankivil, won’t stylistically surprise anyone. The Badgers will retain the ball for a long time, take a large percentage of three-point shots, and shoot a high percentage from the floor. Jordan Taylor, the best point guard in the Big Ten, and a conference player of the year candidate, leads an attack that virtually never turns the ball over – last year his assist/TO ratio pushed over 5:1. Adjusted for tempo, the Badgers had the best offense in college basketball last year, lead by quality three-point shooting, good rebounding on the glass thanks to Leuer, no turnovers, and exemplary free-throw shooting.

Not all of those things can continue. The Badgers, in Taylor, return their best player – their offensive facilitator, and leading scorer. However, Leuer and Nankivil, the Badgers lose two of college basketball’s most effective offensive rebounders, and nearly 40% of their shots and scoring. So far, the Badgers have replaced their two big-men with a different alignment. Junior Jarred Berggren, a highly touted recruit yet to amount to much, has slipped into the lineup at center and has, thus far, delivered about 70% of what Leuer did – twelve points, five rebounds, and a quality three-point stroke for a pivot player (38% on three attempts a game). The other new-comer is the grossly inefficient Junior guard Ryan Evans – who, in his two seasons in Madison, has yet to crack an eFG% of 40%. He’s off to an adequate start this year, but history suggests it won’t last. What Evans has contributed is a strong presence on the glass and on defense - six rebounds a game, including 1.5 offensive rebounds, while grabbing 1.5 steals and leading the team in blocks.

The largest surprise has been sixth man Ben Brust, who hardly warranted a minute of relevant playing time last year. Brust has broken out early in the year with 13 points a game – shooting 48% on six three-point attempts a game. Brust doesn’t bring much to the table other than his shooting, but in an offense that revolves around the three-point shot that already has an elite drive-and-kick point guard, he could be an invaluable piece.

Rounding out the starting lineup are typical Wisconsin lunch-pailer types Mike Brusewitz and John Gasser.  Both of the pair are surprisingly effective offensive rebounders, though extremely limited shooters (which doesn’t deter them from hoisting two three pointers apiece). In their first six games of the year, the shooting from these two has improved, but after shooting 30% from three for the year, it’s doubtful they improve to anything more than average over the course of the year. The Badger rotation rounds out at only seven players with Rob Wilson, who…have you guessed yet? Wilson is a surprisingly effective rebounder in limited minutes, and a respectable three-point shooter. Read more »

Big Ten First Look: Indiana

November 28, 2011
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Despite not getting much pub, Victor Olapido is the Hoosier's best all-around player

If 12-20 (3-15) doesn’t provide enough detail on how poor last year’s Hoosiers club was, there’s plenty more detail to find. They sported both the conference’s second-worst defense and offense. They were in the bottom two in the conference in defensive rebounding rate, offensive rebounding rate, turnovers, forcing turnovers, blocks, steals, and three-point shooting. To cap it off, they put the opposition on the free-throw line more than all but ten Division I teams. Phew. Basically, what the Hoosier could do was shoot two-point shots, and everything else was a complete struggle.

The Hoosiers will get their opportunity to correct these myriad mistakes, as virtually every single player returns from last year’s team, and, for the first time in Tom Crean’s tenure, there is a sizeable number of upper-classmen. Losing only the most invisible player in the Big Ten in Jeremiah Rivers (3.2 points, 1.7 assists, 1.2 turnovers in 22 minutes a game), the Hoosiers hope to rebound from the depths of last year.

Perhaps the most valid criticism of the job Crean did last year can be found in his rotation – ten players averaged over 10 minutes a game and two more averaged close to 7 minutes a game in 28 contests apiece. That looks suspiciously like a 12-man rotation, which is tantamount to “not having a rotation”. A whopping 9 players were yanked in and out of the starting lineup, with eight of them starting more than 10 games. It would appear that Crean just didn’t know what he had, swapping from lineups that started 2 guards and 3 forwards, to 3 guards and two forwards to four guards and one forward. There was literally no cohesion in scheme, personnel, or formation from game to game.

What’s clear is that the team will play juniors Christian Watford and Jordan Hulls along with senior Verdell Jones when they’re available. Outside of that, is any guess, with potential-filled sophomores Victor Oladipo and Will Sheehy, junior rebounder Derrick Elston, injury riddled junior Maurice Creek, and senior fence-posts Matt Roth and Tom Pritchard all likely getting some sort of a look. Bolstering this group is the first of several super-recruits Crean has inked, in the 6’11” Cody Zeller.

The guess here is that the starting lineup consists of Watford, Hulls, Jones, Zeller, and Creek. However, frankly, that seems like a recipe for disaster. Last year, the team depended on Watford to be their sole post presence – a role he frankly failed at, as he connected on 43% of his two-point shots. A strong season from behind the arc (38%) salvaged his eFG%, meaning Cody Zeller needs to arrive ready to score in order to free Watford to do things at which he’s actually good. The other thing this offense needs is more Jordan Hulls. Hulls was the 70th most efficient shooter in college basketball, despite using a smaller percentage of his team’s possessions than five team-mates. Further, possessing a significantly more steady hand at the point than Rivers, Hull’s presence should help cut down on the turnovers. Though it won’t happen, this team would likely be better off is Verdell Jones lost his minutes altogether, and Creek was limited until he actually shows his high-school shooting stroke in the college game. Oladipo is the one player on the roster who can score points on slop off the offensive glass, and the one player likely to earn the Hoosiers a few extra possessions. Read more »

Big Ten First Look: Minnesota

November 23, 2011
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Trevor Mbakwe is the most poster-ific player in the Big Ten

Minnesota’s 2010/2011 started with promise and ended in disaster. After beating North Carolina and West Virginia in the pre-season, the Gophers took an 11-1 record into conference play, where a brutal early stretch saw them lose at Wisconsin, at Ohio State, and at Michigan State, prior to the departure of Korie Luscious. After that road stretch, the Gophers faced down Purdue at home, and handily dismissed Michigan in Ann Arbor. Then, the wheels came off.
 
Having lost starting shooting guard Devoe Joseph to transfer after the first 12 games, senior point guard Al Nolen suffered a season-ending ankle-injury. Tubby Smith reacted by moving sharp-shooter Blake Hoffarber to point guard. The result, in essence, was the loss of not just Nolen, but also their leading scorer, as Hoffarber struggled greatly in the role. In summation, it was a disastrous coaching decision, one of the worst of the season. Of course, freshmen Austin Hollins and Maverick Ahanmisi weren’t ready for the role either, and the club dropped 10 of their final 12 games.
 
The strength of the team is clear – Trevor Mbakwe. Short of Jared Sullinger, the senior is the most dominant front-court player in the conference, averaging a double-double. Despite shooting 58% from the floor and 7 attempts from the free-throw line, the Gophers deigned to give 4 other players more shots per game. Mbakwe still led the team in scoring. If he didn’t excel on the offensive glass, one wonders if he’d get a shot attempt. Departed Junior Colton Iverson was one of the fifteen best offensive-rebounders in the nation, so the Gophers can expect a step back in that department.
 
Front-court mate Ralph Sampson III is a name and a pedigree, but little else. In a contest between him and small forward Rodney Williams, it would be difficult to determine who was more disappointing. Sampson is a 7-footer who takes nothing but 15-foot plus jumpers while vanishing from the glass for great stretches. Williams is an elite athlete with no idea how to play basketball.
 
The largest problem, however, is that the team lost the only person on the roster who could hit a jumper (Hoffarber), it’s second best rebounder (the transferred Colton Iverson), and likely hasn’t corrected last year’s fatal flaw – the lack of a point guard. Smith’s recruiting class contains two quality players – Andre Hollins and Joe Coleman, but both are shooting guards known for their ability to take the ball to the basket – not a jumper among them. Latvian freshman Oto Osenieks has shown some aptitude at shooting the three point shot in the early going, but at 6’8″, 200, he’s exactly what you expect a European freshman to be – a rangy waif. Regardless, he represents the totality of the Gopher outside game.
 
So what do we have? Two returning point guards with turnover rates double their assist rates, and a litany of wings that can only attack the rim (Andre Hollins, Coleman, Williams, Chip Armelin). Inside, Sampson likely sports the best range on the team (out to eighteen feet!) and Mbakwe won’t work outside of five feet, not a single backup post-player, and nobody whose range stretches beyond mid-range. Tubby Smith brought in two Juco transfers at PG and PF to help address some of these problems, but that’s a bit of a stretch.
 
Leaving the offense aside, this was a terrible defensive team after losing Nolen, their best perimeter defender. They were 299th in forcing turnovers, and only managed a solid eFG% against because Mbakwe and Sampson, averaging four block between then, were so imposing to shoot over.
 
Simply: this is a bad team, but likely won’t have last year’s bout with competence to take them above .500 for the year. This is a second-division club who will likely sink lower in the overall standings as Indiana takes a step forward.

Big Ten First Look: Illinois

November 23, 2011
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This was the first item on a Google Image Search for Bruce Weber

Perhaps no team in the Big 10 was hollowed out in the off-season to the degree of the Fighting Illini. Between long-time starters Demetri McCamey, Mike Davis, and Mike Tisdale, senior role player Bill Cole, and one-and-done Jereme Richmond (who, painfully, went undrafted), lose four starters, five of their top seven minute-getters, and 70% of their scoring.
 
There’s an argument, one that has some merit, that this isn’t so much of a bad thing. McCamey and Tisdale were constantly in Bruce Weber’s doghouse, and constantly in and out of the rotation as they battled with their head coach. This was, after all, the conference’s most talented club last year – poor leadership from the senior class and the bench ground them to 9-9 in the conference.
 
What’s left? The two most notable pieces are near identical junior combo-guards Brandon Paul and DJ Richardson. Both are versatile scorers with credible outside shots, neither that well-suited to running the point. That’s unfortunate, because one of them, most likely Richardson, is going to have to, after a season of spelling McCamey in the role. The talent is there with both – they’ve been effective in their two years as role players, and both possessed a bevy of recruiting hype, ending in the top 50 of Rivals, Scout, and ESPN. The question, of course, is how they handle the load of leadership.
 
There is also some relatively untapped talent remaining on the bench from last year. Sophomore Meyers Leonard cracked the regular rotation at Center, but tended to only play a few minutes a game. Leonard is the rare legitimate seven-footer, but a tad on the willowy side (as was Mike Tisdale). His skill-set is also reminiscent of Tisdale, with a credible jump-shot. Comparing Leonard to Tisdale isn’t intended to be damning with faint praise – Tisdale’s problem was never his skill-set. With a year of development, look for Leonard to take the next step – with no other player capable of manning the pivot, he’ll have the opportunity.
 
The Illini return two scout-approved recruits who have failed to earn regular playing time in their careers. Crandall Head, the younger brother of former Illini guard Luther, was a shooting guard only pressed into action by foul trouble as a true freshman. A streaky shooter, Head will be in the running for the small-forward role, failing that, he should merit time backing up both shooting guard and small forward. Tyler Griffey, coming into his junior season, is the only returning player outside of Leonard with the height to play in the post. Failing to merit minutes through his first two seasons, it’s hard to see Griffey as a difference maker, but Weber will have little option other than to play him.
 
What the Illini do possess, however, is a deep, quality, recruiting class, tallying six players, four of whom rank as unanimous 4-star recruits. The most likely to earn playing time is the 6’8” Mike Shaw, generally regarded as one of the best rebounders in the class. With both Leonard and Griffey liabilities on the glass, Shaw is going to be relied upon to play the Mike Davis role – immediately. The other is small forward Michael Henry, an elite athlete from the wing, with a scouting report nearly identical to Jereme Richmond – an elite finisher and rebounder from the wing. Classmate Tracy Abrams is likely in line to take up the slack as a back-up point-guard and Nnanna Egwu will likely snag some minutes backing up the front-court. Fifth year senior Sam Maniscalco, mediocre shooting guard from Bradley, adds another experienced option in e back-court.
 
So how does this team look? Depending on at least three true freshmen to play extensive minutes, with three untested returning players all poised to play big minutes is always risky. Further, this roster doesn’t figure to be able to play offense like Weber’s last few outfits. Richardson and Paul are the only credible outside shooters – a skill that, with those two, McCamey, Cole, and Tisdale, Weber had in spades the past two years. The Illini were the 20th best three-point shooting outfit in the nation, and completely averse to the free-throw line (only 3 teams scored a smaller percentage of their points from the line). Offensively, Weber is going to have to play a different sort of game with this club. My position on his coaching chops is set in stone – I doubt he can do it. Defensively, the club is still extremely long – shots and open passing lanes will still be hard to come by.
 
The talent level on this club remains high, while the experience turned from “tons” to “none”. However, that’s a trend throughout the conference this year, with stars seemingly departing from every team. This Illini team is still among the most talented in the league, and has excised some of their clubhouse cancers in the off-season – it’s just the one on the bench that remains. This will be a dangerous club, but it’s hard to see a team this inexperienced, with such a cipher as a coach, scratching out enough wins on the road to make the tournament.

Big Ten First Look: Michigan

November 22, 2011
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He's not the best player kn e team, but Burke is probably the most important

The Michigan Wolverines were doubtlessly the surprise team of last year’s Big Ten basketball season. Uniformly picked to dwell in the cellar, Michigan finished fourth in the conference on their way to twenty-one wins and the “3rd” round of the NCAA tournament, where they nearly knocked off Duke. The engine behind the break-out was simple, sophomore Darius Morris turned from scared-role-player into one of the most effective point guards in the entire country, while freshman Tim Hardaway Jr. broke out in the second half of the season, scoring 17 points per game after their season-saving victory at the Breslin Center in East Lansing.
 
The team returns largely intact, but the small piece they lost just happens to be NBA early-entrant Darius Morris. So…now what? Like most John Beilein teams, Michigan was extremely dependent on the three-point shot, with 37% of their points coming from behind the arc – losing Morris, a terrible shooter from distance, shouldn’t hurt this. The Wolverines, however, were among the best in the nation in shooting percentage from inside the arc – connecting on 52% of their shots – a number nearly entirely attributable to Morris, who shot 52.6% from two and facilitated the vast majority of the offense of center Jordan Morgan (63% from the floor, four baskets per game). Further, the pair contributed half the team’s trip to the foul line. The team only lost a single player, but they lost a huge part of their offense.
 
The team will rely on true-freshman Trey Burke – Ohio’s Mr. Basketball, to step into Morris’ shoes, but he won’t be completely alone. Last year, Morris operated with the 3rd youngest team in NCAA basketball, one that utilized its bench the absolute least. This year, there proves to be more experience, and depth. For one thing, Hardaway established himself as an all-conference talent, and a lead scorer. Fellow freshman Evan Smotrycz had an up-and-down year, but flashed ample talent on the offensive end of the floor. With Morgan’s offense likely diminishing due to the loss of Morris, the offensive load will likely be on these two and Michigan’s array of outside snipers. Burke himself has, thus far, shown himself to be a quality shooter, comfortable in man to man defense (if a bit small) and energetic on the break. While a bit turnover prone, he early returns are promising.
 
On defense, things look to only improve. KenPom’s 34th best defense last year, the unit loses its weakest link in Morris, who, despite his athleticism, seemed to be victimized the most in Michigan’s team-defense concept. The defense hinged primarily on defensive rebounding and not fouling – two aspects that don’t figure to be significantly impacted by Morris’ departure. Stu Douglass and Zack Novak, the Wolverines’ two seniors, set the pace on the defensive end of the floor, with Douglass generally guarding the opposition’s best guard, and Novak leading the charge on glass, despite his 6’4” frame.
 
In addition to Burke, the Wolverines will likely also look to Sophomore Jon Horford to play appreciably more minutes. Last year, when the foul-prone Jordan Morgan needed to go to the bench, the team played small, with Evan Smotrycz playing in the pivot. Adding 30 pounds to his Bambi-like frame, Horford seems poised to seize fifteen minutes a game spelling Morgan. The son of a former NBA player and the brother of Hawks star Al Horford, Jon has the talent to be an impact player.
 
The team looks to start Jordan Morgan and Zack Novak in the front court, with Tim Hardaway on the wing, and Burke and Douglass in the back-court. Douglass will also likely double as the backup point guard, giving freshman Carlton Brundidge a chance at minutes. Junior Matt Vogrich will spell Hardaway, with Smotrycz stretching the floor while backing up both front-court slots.
 
On the year, the Wolverines should be regarded a dark-horse title contender in the Big 10, despite the loss of Morris. After a top-4 finish last year, the club returns the most minutes of any team in the conference, and features a maturing roster. Anything short of a comfortable tournament bid would be a disappointment.