College Basketball

Big Ten Hoops: The Bloom Comes Off a Rose

December 27, 2011
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Myers Leonard blocks lots of shots

Minnesota at Illinois (-5.5), 7:30 ET

The tastiest game of the opening night of conference play matches up two of the “surprise” teams of the conference’s out-of-conference slate. Illinois streaked to 10-0, winning at Maryland and defeating #19 Gonzaga at home prior to losing handily to UNLV in Champaign, then losing a competitive game at Missouri to close their slate. Given the mass attrition the Illini experienced, this was somewhat surprising – especially two credible performances on the road with an extremely young team. In the early-going, the offense has struggled substantially, but the defense has carried them through some squeakers against inferior competition.

For their part, the Golden Gophers, much reviled here prior to the season, walk into the game at 12-1. Prior to the season, we at the JCB predicted a sub-.500 record, which seems unlikely, but we’re not about to admit this is a good team. Minnesota scheduled their non-conference slate the way Bill Snyder schedules Kansas State’s football team – the premier victory here was a home squeaker against Virginia Tech mandated as part of the Big Ten/ACC challenge, winning despite not having Trevor Mbakwe. Minnesota has yet to play a road game, and have not faced another major-conference opponent outside of the Hokies. The one loss was a neutral-court blowout to Dayton, a likely tourney team who also holds an Alabama scalp.

The Gophers have played an eleven-man rotation, with minutes rationed accordingly. As a result, the per-game numbers don’t stand out for anyone, but the tempo-free numbers reveal some heroes and goats. Rodney Williams – he of the high hype and low productivity, has put together a solid season, particularly on the defensive end, where he is among the nation’s best shot-blockers and ball-hawks. Williams scores efficiently on the offensive end, but has a limited game, and his rebounding has somewhat disappointed. JUCO PG Julian Welch and sophomore point Maverick Ahanmisi sport high assist rates, but even higher turnover rates – the two worst in the conference. Unfortunately, freshman guard Andre Hollins is nipping at their heels in that department. Welch and Hollins are the closest thing the Gophers have to three-point shooters.

That said, the Gopher’s problems as a unit from last year remain – as you might think from the above, they’re the worst team in the conference at taking care of the ball, and one of the 20 worst in the nation in three-pointers made. Aside from Williams, they aren’t very good on the defensive end – their saving grace is their effective 2-point game, and their offensive rebounding, lead by Williams and reserve center Elliot Eliason. Against the dregs they’ve played, they have enough talent to pound the ball inside with impunity, since few teams outside of Dayton (23rd in effective height) had the size to stand up to them. What happens when their outside shooting can’t keep the defense honest?

Well, we’ll soon find out. Illini sophomore Myers Leonard has been the conference’s premier defensive big man in the early-going. He’s the best shot-blocker in the conference (the Illini as a team are tops in the conference), and a premier rebounder, particularly on the defensive boards. His policing of the paint and the defensive glass will be the key matchup against a team that thrives on pounding the ball inside and working the offensive glass. When he heads to the bench, reserve center Nnanna Egwu swats shots at an even higher rate. Like last year, the Illini were the 5th tallest team in college basketball (5th in effective height), and use that to throttle the opponent’s interior game (opponents shoot 41% inside the arc). Read more »

Big Ten Hoops Takes Stock

December 21, 2011
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The tiny Lewis Jackson is a bright spot in a dark forest for Purdue

During Saturday’s loss to Butler, Purdue Point Guard Lewis Jackson had a sparkling game – 13 points on 55% shooting, 7 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals, and 0 turnovers. It was a masterful performance as the tiny guard slashed into the paint, creating opportunities for Ryne Smith and Robbie Hummel. Unfortunately, the prior mostly took advatange, the latter didn’t. And why was Kelsey Barlow shooting 13 times? Anyway, we digress.

While Jackson was doing that, Center Sandi Marcius fouled out in 13 minutes of play, somehow managing as many turnovers as rebounds – four. This left the willowy true freshman Jacob Lawson (6’8″, 218 pounds) to man the pivot as Butler’s Alex Smith tipped in the decisive bucket. In 13 minutes, Marcius managed to undo every great thing Jackson did for 30. Herein lies your 2011 Big Ten Pre-season.

Last weekend, a Sullinger-less OSU squad took Kansas to the limit on the road, Indiana downed #1 Kentucky on their home floor, and Michigan State, behind a dominant performance from Draymond Green, bullied Gonzaga in Spokane – it was a big day for conference dominance, coming on the heels of Ohio State’s win over Florida, Michigan’s win over Memphis on a neutral floor, and an 8-4 romp in the Big 10/ACC challenge, capped by OSU’s evisceration of the Blue Devils in Columbus.

Last weekend, however, things started to go a little pear-shaped. First, Memphis keeps losing, devaluing Michigan’s signature win by the day. Then, Purdue lost to the struggling Butler Bulldogs on a neutral court in Indianapolis – the second time in their last two losses that they’ve blow double digit leads with less than ten minutes on the clock. Then, Illinois was blown off their own floor by UNLV – a quality opponent, but a bad loss all the same. Northwestern needed a last-minute four-point-play to avoid adding to the insult – narrowly besting Central Connecticut in Evanston.

What’s come clear is this: the conference has only one truly elite team, in Ohio State (assuming Sullinger is on the floor). Indiana has yet to show many weaknesses, and have beaten a decent NC State team on the road in addition to their win over Kentucky, but much remains to be seen about the Hoosiers. Following that, the conference is staffed with a large “middle” of pretty good clubs with some (Purdue and Illinois) likely not as good as people may think. With Illinois facing Missouri and Northwestern facing Creighton before the Holiday, the conference has two more chances to add some quality feathers to their cap. For a league that could have as many as nine teams fighting for NCAA berths, all the non-conference scalps they can muster are needed. Read more »

Big Ten Hoops Matches Up: OSU and MSU in Action

December 9, 2011
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Travis Trice needs a big game to keep the Zags honest

#2 OSU (-2.5) at #13 Kansas

This is one of those matchups that looks much better before you start thinking about it. “Kansas is great! One of the best programs in the country!” you may be thinking. While there is still talent on hand, this isn’t the Kansas Jayhawks team of the last few years. When you examine what the Jayhawks lost last year – the Morris twins, sharp-shooters Tyrel Reed, Brady Morningstar, and Josh Selby (the combination of which accoutned for 77% of the Jayhawks’ starts last year), your first instict would be that a program like Kansas replaced them with some top-notch recruits. While that’s sort of the case, it’s really not.

What happened? The Jayhawks did pull two big-time recruits – forward Ben McClemore and point-guard Naadir Tharpe. But, McClemore has yet to see the floor, and Tharpe only plays nine minutes a game. This is, despite having few returning contributors, an oddly old team. Of the seven-man rotation, there are two seniors and four juniors, only two of whom got extensive playing time.

The first, and most important, is Junior power-forward Thomas Robinson. Robinson, is, simply, a powerhouse revealed by the departure of the Morris twins. Robinson is the single most effective defensive rebounder in the nation, and among the most effective offensive rebounders. He’s not an overly efficient scorer, but still shoots over 51% on over thirteen shots a game. Given how often he handles the ball, he hardly turns it over, while averaging over a block and steal per game. To top it off, he’s very effective at getting to the line. He’s the best player on the Jayhawks’s roster, and is possibly the best all-around player that will be on the floor Saturday. Yes, I know Jared Sullinger is playing.

The other chief contributor  to the Jayhawks is senior point-guard Tyshawn Taylor. A fixture in the Jayhawk back-court for the past few years, Taylor is now being counted on as a scorer for the first time – and at first glance, he’s succeeding, scoring 17 a game with a 54% eFG%. In addition, he’s excelled at getting to the line – only two players in nation have been better. What’s come with that, however is turnovers. When he was just a facilitator, Taylor showed himself to be a reliable ball-handler, but this year, he’s averaging over four turnovers a game – more than he dishes the ball out. Is this a fluke, or is this a result of his greater offensive role? It remains to be seen.

Junior seven-footer Jeff Withey is an efficient scorer in limited opportunities who, like Robinson, excels on the glass in addition to being one of the best shot-blockers in college basketball. Combo-guard Elijah Johnson helps take some of the ball-handling and play-making duties from Taylor, but is a liability when asked to shoot. He and turnover-prone guard Trais Releford are the best defenders on the team, and round out the starting lineup, while the two only make 25% of eight combined three-point attempts a game. Past Taylor, the only reliable outside shooter is reserve guard Connor Teahen, who connects on 45% of his attempts. Read more »

Big Ten First Look: Penn State

December 6, 2011
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In 2010, Penn State was the thinnest team in the Big Ten – their five starters all averaged over thirty minutes per game, and only a sixth player made an appearance in each game – this team was more reliant on it’s starting five than any in the conference. The problem, of course, is that most of them were seniors. Between all-conference selections Talor Battle and Jeff Brooks, third scorer David Jackson, and offensive-rebounding force Andrew Jones, Penn State loses 49 points per game and 21 rebounds with virtually nobody with experience ready to fill in the blanks. In the off-season, Penn State also replaced Ed DeChellis – figuring that losing most of your roster is the best time to change schemes.

So what returns? Most importantly, the Nittany Lions return point-guard Tim Frazier. As a sophomore, Frazier was not much of a scorer (his eFG% a paltry 46%), but he was an effective game manager, with his assists nearly doubling his turnovers. He also was Penn State’s most effective ball-hawk. They also return sophomore Billy Oliver – their all-purpose front-court substitute. Oliver was the one player who got consistent minutes off the bench, but failed to distinguish himself in any meaningful way – he was a poor shooter, a mediocre rebounder, and a forgettable defender. He is also, likely, the starting power forward.

The next most used players from last year’s teams are a pair of guards – Cameron Woodyard and Jermaine Marshall, who were pressed into service during foul-trouble, disciplinary benchings, or injury. Woodyard, a rising senior, largely did nothing but miss a ton of shots when he was on the floor, he’s likely not a starter. Jermaine Marshall, a rising sophomore, didn’t really distinguish himself, but the bar here is low – he’s your likely starting shooting guard.

This being Penn State, their recruiting class doesn’t offer a bounty of riches. Small Forward Ross Travis was the only recruit ranked by all four major scouting bureaus, meriting a unanimous 3-star ranking. Center Pat Ackerman warranted a 3-star ranking from one service, but was un-noted by anybody else. There are two players who red-shirted last year with a bit more hype to them, however. Jonathan Graham is a red-shirt freshman power-forward who was a unanimous three-star recruit noted for his effort levels, while sophomore Sasa Borovnjak played sparingly as a true-freshman, then spent last year sidelined with a knee injury. These two will likely join Oliver in the front-court, with Travis and Ackerman being the primary replacements.

Unsurprisingly, the Lions have leaned on Tim Frazier heavily out of the gates. Formerly a guard tasked with protecting the ball and defense, Frazier is the leading scorer (19.5 points per game), passer (7.1 assists), rebounder (5.7 rebounds), and stopper (2.3 steals). It’s really something of a heroic effort – he’s turned the ball over a fair amount, but his assist rate still nearly doubles that value, and he’s really doing it by himself. His shooting has improved by two points from the floor and seven from three-point in significantly higher usage – at this rate, his statistical profile is that of a better Talor Battle. Yes, you read that correctly. Moreover, he’s not just doing it against lightweights, scoring 22 against Mississippi and 19 at Boston College. The problem is that, as predicted, there’s nothing else here – Frazier and sophomore Sasa Borovjnak are the only players shooting over 40% from the floor, and Borovjnak only takes three shots a game. It’s a mystery who is scoring enough for Frazier to get seven assists a game. Read more »

Big Ten First Look: Iowa

December 6, 2011
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Melsahn Basabe out-played Jared Sullinger heads-up last year. For some reason, Iowa would rather give the ball to guys name Roy and Zack.

In many ways, Iowa and Indiana are similar clubs. Both finished at the bottom of the Big 10 last year (the differentiating mark was the Hawkeyes’ season sweep of the Hoosiers). Both teams return all but a single contributor (the Hoosiers lose the invisible Jeremiah Rivers, the Hawkeyes lose rebounding machine Jarryd Cole). Both teams feature large swaths of under-classmen growing into their own. It’s somewhat jarring, then, that one team’s glaring weakness is the other’s glaring strength – in this case, fouling.

 Indiana was among the ten worst teams in the nation at keeping the opposition off the charity stripe, while Iowa was among the fifteen best. This single stat moves Iowa’s defense from “mediocre” to “solid”. Despite having two excellent rate-rebounders in Melsahn Basabe and Jarryd Cole, the Hawkeyes, due to their own foul-troubles, weren’t very good defensive rebounders, and they were rather poor at forcing bad shooting performances. The defense, led by Eric May, was moderately successful at forcing turnovers, but their single best trait was simply keeping the opposition’s offense honest by making them score from the floor.

 The Hawkeyes will need that defense, because the offense, simply, is terrible. Let’s start with the good: Melsahn Basabe. Basabe is the one upper-division quality player on the roster – the one that wouldn’t be out of place on some of the better rosters in basketball. Basabe, a somewhat un-recruited freshman who followed Coach Fran McCaffery from Siena, floated through the pre-season occasionally making an impact, but exploded in the second conference game against Ohio State– putting up a 22/13 and out-playing Jared Sullinger in a narrow loss in Columbus. From then on, he was a revelation, only occasionally held back by his own profligate foul rate, or the team’s bizarre tendency to occasionally forget he existed. At the end of the season, Basabe was one of the league’s most efficient scorers, best rebounders, shot-blockers, and foul magnet, drawing five fouls a game. Assuming he grows out of his foul-problems, Basabe is on course to be an all-conference selection as early as this year.

 Unfortunately, there isn’t much else here. Matt Gatens and Eric May are average offensive players, which, on Iowa, make them their second-best options. Shooting only 33% on five three-point attempts a game, while providing no rebounding or defense, it’s debatable Gatens can even be described as average. May, for his part, is a staunch defender with a respectable shooting percentage on a team surrounded by brick-layers. Bryce Cartwright scored some points, but, like Gatens, shot under 40% from the floor without any semblance of three-point shooting to make his eFG% respectable. Toss in a league-leading 3.3 turnovers a game, and he’s a dubious point-guard at best. Freshmen Roy Devin Marble and Zach McCabe played a lot, but, like Gatens and Cartwright, shot 35% and 37% from the floor. Andrew Brommer, a rising senior, has all of Basabe’s fouling problems with none of the upside, and rising senior Devon Archie, a respectable rebounder in limited minutes seems destined for the Jarryd Cole role – he won’t shoot, ever.

With a freshman class most kindly described as “over-looked”, the only addition they can expect is Junior Cully Payne – last year’s starting PG who missed all but the season’s first five games. Its possible be can supplant Cartwright freeing him to…I’m not sure what. Most likely, the starting lineup is Payne/Cartwright, Gatens, May, Brommer, and Basabe, with Marble and McCabe filling in at the wings, and Archie spelling the bigs off the bench. Read more »