Guys don't get carried off the floor on people's shoulders much these days. 43 points will do that.

Any recent fan of Big Ten athletics is undoubtedly familiar with the senseless pap that gets thrown around in the name of the conference. Something about the rust-belt Midwestern sprawl of the conference prompts senseless talking-heads to ascribe a slew of blue-collar sensibilities to the style of play in THE BIG TEN CONFERENCE (this should be said in your best Merrill Hoge “NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE” voice). The assertion is that the physical, brawny Big Ten will dissemble any newfangled wrinkle of innovation. Lately, in football, this has been a sop – the conference is down, not just compared to it’s SEC rivals, and it seems like a minimum level of competence in any scheme (TACKLING works in the BIG TEN CONFERENCE) is enough to warrant success. Further, it’s often a lie – the image of the conference is between the tackles old-school football which really only applied to Wisconsin this past year.

In basketball, however, this is close to law – the conference DOES play slower, it DOES play more physical (witness a “soft team like Michigan’s recent win over MSU for an example) and it DOES punish teams that can’t match these qualities (see: Northwestern’s significant difficulties in taking down more than one good team a year). What worse is that for the past few years, the conference has been brutally deep, with teams from the top echelon struggling to win on the road, anywhere.

Last week, the Big Ten had four teams ranked in the top 25, and every single team dropped a road game to an unranked opponent. Three of these losses came to Iowa, Nebraska, and Northwestern, and the combined conference record of the victors was an uninspiring 11-14. These games have been unforgiving, and it’s not just because the favorite plays poorly: Ohio State lost a game that saw them take 21 more shots than Illinois, Indiana out-shot Nebraska by 14 percentage points, and Michigan State posted their best eFG% of Big 10 play against Northwestern. The opposition has just found ways to win – from Illinois conference-worst shooting team hitting 60% from the floor, Nebraska’s 275th ranked offensive rebounding attacking winning the battle on the boards, and Northwestern’s porous defense forced turnovers on 25% of the Spartans possessions. It’s just a jungle out there.

What does it mean going forward? Since going to an 18-game conference slate, the conference has been won by a team that goes 15-3 or better in three of four years, with the lone exception being 2010, when three times tied at 14-4 and a fourth finished at 13-5 – the most top-heavy performance in league history. With every favorite sitting with at least two conference losses a mere third of the way through the season, this figures to be the lowest win figure to take the conference since the expanded conference slate. Illinois sits at the top with one loss, but with two to play against both Wisconsin and Michigan, road-trips to Indiana and Ohio State, and a game against Michigan State, some losses are coming. The bet here is that you see the conference’s first 13-win champion since the expanded conference slate.

Onto the power-rankings:

1. Ohio State 16-3 (4-2).

The Buckeyes grabbed 37% of their own misses, and won the turnover battle by ten against the Illini, only to watch a team with a 51.5% eFG shoot 72.2%, lead by Brandon Paul (45.9% eFG on the year) shooting 100%. Really. 100%. He also tripled his average free-throw attempts (yes, this was officiated by Ted Valentine), scoring a preposterous 43 points on 15 shots. There is nothing to take from this game other than to say “when they play against the single-best shooting display in conference history, the Buckeyes will lose”. I think we knew that?

2. Michigan State 15-4 (4-2)

Welcome to the new Big Ten, where losing two in a row doesn’t get you demoted. The Spartans still have turnover problems (which are near solely responsible for their last two losses), but the good news is that the shooting is rounding into shape. Unfortunately, apparently the Spartans haven’t round into shape quite yet, according to Tom Izzo. Unless that shape is round.

3. Michigan 15-4 (4-2)

Yes, they have the same record as the Spartans, and yes, they just beat the Spartans. This is still a team that hasn’t shot particularly well for nearly a month – we’ll wait to declare their supremacy until after their trip to the Breslin Center. The good news is that despite not shooting well, they do keep winning – somewhat uncharacteristic for a John Beilein team. They do need to watch the turnovers – they literally turned the game over to the Hawkeyes.

4. Illinois 15-3 (4-1)

Despite being in first place, this team still inspires some doubt, and it’s not just Bruce Weber’s presence. The win over Ohio State is great, but it was such an aberrant performance, it’s hard to take seriously. Other than that, they were slaughtered by Purdue, and barely slid by Northwestern, Minnesota, and Nebraska. This is a tourney team, but they won’t be in the conference race when all is done.

5. Indiana 15-4 (3-4)

The losers of three straight, the giant killers seem to be capable of losing a game in any fashion these days. First, they were destroyed on the offensive glass by Minnesota on a night where their shooting seemed to abandon them, hitting only 43% of their shots – a poor mark for this team. Against Ohio State, they still didn’t shoot well, but all of a sudden, got torched by the Buckeye offense. Against Nebraska, they played great shooting defense – they just got waxed on the glass again. The concerning part is that they’re starting to foul again – committing nearly 40 against Minnesota and Ohio State.

6. Wisconsin 15-5 (4-3)

Wisconsin stabilized from their three-game losing stream with a rare win at Purdue, a narrow win at home against Nebraska, and a destruction of Northwestern. They still can’t make shots, and they still can’t rebound very well – they just guard the rim extremely well. Any game involving them at this point is a race to 50.

7. Purdue 14-5 (4-2)

Like Wisconsin, Purdue is significantly being held back by poor shooting – Robbie Hummel made fewer than 33% of his shots against the Badgers in their home loss. The defense isn’t the same as it’s been during the rest of the Painter era, and the Boilermakers need solid shooting to pull them through. When they don’t get it, they largely fail to compete.

8. Iowa 11-9 (3-4)

Iowa continues their slow climb up the rankings. Three wins with two on the road is more than we can say for anyone else below them.

9. Minnesota 14-5 (2-4)

Minnesota’s win at Indiana was perhaps the most startling result of the conference season – one that saw Rodney Williams finally step out with an increased role in the offense. This still isn’t a good team, and the same problems persist – no point guard, no outside shooting, and an unconcerned lump in the middle.

10. Northwestern 12-6 (2-4)

Yes, they just got their annual “big win”, so it seems odd to drop them. But perhaps no team embodies the “won’t work in the Big Ten” maxim like these guys. Wisconsin hasn’t been able to hit the broadside of a barn for a month, and Northwestern just allowed them to shoot a 61% eFG, and spotted them 14 FT attempts (they average 9 a game). As long as guys like Coble, Williams, Shurna, and Crawford are around, they’ll always be able to almost go .500, but that generation is on their way out, and they still haven’t broken through. It seems like it’s time for a change.

11. Nebraska 10-8 (2-5)

Last year, the Huskers were a dangerous team at home, with mostly the same cast of players. With a big win over Indiana, maybe they can reclaim that.

12. Penn State 9-10 (1-5)

Maybe they should just rest up for February 11th’s matchup against Nebraska in Happy Valley.

For the first time since 1998, Michigan and Michigan State meet on the hardwood as ranked opponents. It’s been a long time. But, for most of the 1980s and 1990s matches with both in the rankings were fairly regular from the Joubert/Skiles rivalry to the winter of 1990 when Michigan was defending national champs while MSU streaked to the Big 10 title behind Steve Smith to those games in the early days of the Izzo tenure/final days of the Steve Fisher tenure. Michigan Hoops has been in the wilderness, but John Beilein seems to have led them out of the forest and back into NCAA relevancy. In some ways, tonight’s game is a must win for both sides. Michigan State needs the win to keep its early lead in the Big 1o race and stay ahead of Ohio State with the first of two matches with the Buckeyes looMing still three weeks out in the distance. As for Michigan, they dont want that third league loss and fall too far off the lead pack. But a loss tonight really sets up the chance for a protracted losing streak. Coming in off a defeat at Iowa, the Wolverines face a stretch after tonight that includes five road games in six starts, including stops at Arkansas, Purdue, Ohio State and a rematch in East Lansing against the Spartans. The Chicken Little in me wonders if a loss tonight wont be part of something akin to a 5-game skid and losses in six of seven. If so, look for the Wolverines, despite such heady preseason expectations, to be on the wrong side of the bubble by early February.  A win tonight would give them immeasurable breathing room should the upcoming three weeks be short on victories. It’s a rivalry game.  Get your talking points straight. Before our prediction, lets take a look at the protagonists this evening.

MICHIGAN STATE AT MICHIGAN, 7:00, ESPN. LINES, MSU -2, 0/U 132

What a difference a year makes for Michigan State. A year ago, the Spartans season devolved into a disaster, at least by modern day, Tom Izzo Era standards up in East Lansing. They dropped to .500 in league play, were bounced in ugly fashion in the first round of the NCAAs by UCLA and pretty much never looked like a cohesive basketball team for much of the season. This year? They look primed to return to the top of the Big 10 standings and rediscover their famous March Mojo. A year ago, the Spartans had the 62nd and 30th offensive and defensive rated efficiency teams in the land per KenPom. This season, they’re 7th and 9th, one of a few teams ranked in the top-10 in efficiency on both ends of the floor.  A year ago their offensive EFG% was 190th in the land. This season, they’re sharpshooters by comparison, ranking 48th in the country. In 2010-11, their defensive EFG% was 112th in the nation, while this year their EFG% on D is 23rd nationally. They’re a little bit better at shooting the 3-ball this year, but the biggest gains have been their 2-point field goal marksmanship having improved from 46.7% and 214th in the land a season ago to 52%, 48th in the country this year.

I’m sure we can dig up a bunch more hard core numbers to further back the on-court improvement, but I dont think any of that even matters. I think there is a chemistry difference between the two squads, and that’s been the biggest factor behind this year’s Green and White Renaissance. Last year’s club was caught up in their individual games, their pro prospects and never seemed to be on the same page with Izzo. The coach kicked Korrie Luscious off the team, but he was popular among his teammates. Lets just put it this way, whats the Over/Under on number of times last winter, post Luscious expulsion, that the players with Korrie in tow, got together, passed a joint around a circle and bitched about their asshole head coach. Whatever you’re setting the number at, I’m taking the Over. All of those guys are gone, replaced by fresh faces or holdovers with larger roles. And its amazing what can be accomplished when coaches and players like each other.  I know this aint twitter, but that deserves a #justsayin’.

As for the actual players, Draymond Green is putting in an All Big 10 First Team caliber performance. He’s avergaing 15.8 points per game and 10.1 boards.  He’s had 10 double-doubles this season, including three in a row coming into tonight. He’s had his own leadership aneurysm, his head coach is so in love, he calls him by cute nicknames like Day Day and, by his example, this team’s performance has done a 180 from last year. His frontcourt play has been backed up by a stellar guard unit. Keith Appling, Brandon Wood and Travis Trice arent as explosive scorers as last year’s guards were, but they’re more efficient, play within themselves and the game circumstances a bit better and turn the ball over less. It might not be as star studded, but this backcourt is better than a year ago. I say that as a big Kailon Lucas fan, too. Wood, the transfer from Valpo is such a smart player and never takes a bad shot. Appling is taking a major leap his sophomore year, showcasing why he had such hot recruiting bonafides coming out of Detroit’s Pershing High. With eight players netting at least 18 minutes a game, the Spartans are a deepish team and Izzo, unlike a year ago, has a lot of different options in his coaching bag if Plan A isnt working. Its all added up to being back in the Big 10 Championship mix.

In the other corner are the Michigan Wolverines. Rather than saying what a difference a year makes, like we did for MSU, it is more accurate to just say, holy hell what a year-long stretch its been for Michigan. It’s just shy of a year to the day that the Wolverines sprung an unlikely upset of MSU at the Breslin Center. At the time, it looked like a nice, rather unsustainable win, a bright spot in an otherwise down year. Michigan was 1-6 in league play and on a 6-game losing streak entering that game. The win was more than just a bright spot, however. It propelled Michigan on a run the second half of the Big 10 season, which included a second win over MSU and an eventual NCAA tournament bid where they rolled Tennesssee in round one and a near upset of Duke in round two. Despite losing Darius Morris to the NBA, the program seemingly has maintained that momentum. They’ve been in the top-20 all season long and with their 14-3 record this season, the Wolverines are an amazing 24-8 since that win at the Breslin Center last January.

Maybe that win wasnt sustainable, but it sure as heck turned this program around. With Tim Hardaway Jr and Trey Burke, they have a really good Big 10 backcourt, whose ceiling is somewhere in the great territory. Zack Novak is, well, Zach Novak, one of the few Big 10 players who can dominate a game without denting much in the boxscore. He needs to make at least 5 plays tonight that wont show up in the boxscore for Michigan to pull out the win.  The Wolverines are 20th in the nation in EFG% and its the best shooting bunch during Beilein’s tenure at Michigan. Michigan is 6th nationally in 2-point field goals. They dont turn the ball over and despite their lack of size are really strong on the defensive glass. Novak and Stu Douglass are the only senior contributers and with a top-10 recruiting class hitting campus next year, highlighted by the #1 recruit in the land Mitch McGary, Michigan is finally becoming a basketball school again and they are hell bent on extending their winning streak over Michigan State to three games.

So, what happens? Michigan needs to shoot the ball better than they have recently if they want to win. It might be Beilein’s best shooting team at Michigan, but they are lodged in a major shooting slump right now.  They’re only shooting 36.7% in their last 3 games and their 3-point shooting has been woeful pretty much the whole Big 10 season so far making just 29.6% of their treys during the first third of the conference season.  The main culprit has been Hardaway Jr. He’s had some stinker games shooting the ball recently, barely shooting above a 30% clip the last 5 games. The other issue they’ve had in recent games has been strategic foul trouble. Burke and Novak have been glued to the bench in recent games thanks to first half whistles going against them. As for MSU, there really havent been too many chinks in the armor until Northwestern snapped their 15-game winning streak over the weekend. They looked vulnerable on D for the first time all season and the Cats diced them up with back door-type cuts all day long. 

 A year after being notorious money burners, State is 10-5 against the spread this season. But, Michigan is 30-14 ATS since the beginning of last season and are a respectable 8-6 ATS this season. But, they’ve failed against the number in their last two starts. Beilein’s team rarely drops three games in a row ATS, they’re 36-17 ATS vs winning teams and on a 15-6 ATS run at home. Everything about MSU is so much better this year than a year ago, while Michigan, despite being in a better position thisear, hasnt really reached their potential this year. On a nuetral floor and certainly up in Breslin, I think this would be a pretty easy Spartan win. In Ann Arbor,  I think Michigan sneaks out a tightly contested win this evening. In Crisler Arena, I think home cooking keeps Michigan out of the foul trouble they’ve had recently and Hardaway Jr rediscovers, at least for a night, the HAM that made him one of the Big 10′s most explosive scorers. He makes a series of clutch buckets in the second half and Burke salts the game away at the line in a 66-62 Michigan win.

The Pick: Michigan +2

• Big 10 Hoops: Michigan State at Michigan (January 17, 2012)
• Indiana Is Back, Nebraska Fans Storm Court (January 19, 2012)

Come on, Big Ten! Make me stop posting Hoosier pictures! Next time it's a Crean-face.

At the start of the year, we pegged the Wisconsin Badgers and Purdue Boilermakers – two teams that had spent most of the past four years at the top of the conference, as second and third in the conference, respectively. It was clear they lost production – Purdue lost conference player-of-the-year JaJuan Johnson and running-mate E’Twaun Moore while Wisconsin lost senior star Jon Leuer in addition to sharp-shooter Keaton Nankivil. There was some reason for optimism – Purdue returned all-conference caliber Robbie Hummel, who had missed all of the previous year, while Wisconsin seemed to have some highly-rated players to fill Leuer’s shoes, and a daunting home-floor advantage to paper over some weaknesses.

But things don’t always work out – Wisconsin has lost three consecutive games, two at home, and one of those to…Iowa? Purdue, for their part, got blown out in hyperbole-inspiring fashion by Penn State after seemingly righting the ship at home against Illinois. What, if anything, did we get wrong about these teams? Are these aberrations, or these bad teams?

Wisconsin, for years, has been an elite offense hiding behind a snail’s pace. In five of the past six years, they’ve been, adjusted for tempo, one of the 25 best offensive teams in the nation, peaking out at 2nd last year. During this span, their shooting has ranged from “pretty good” to “mediocre”, but what’s always kept them intact has been ball-security – with four appearances in the top 10 in the category. The key, simply, is their shooting. On the year, they don’t appear to have taken a huge step backwards – their eFG% has only dropped one percent. However, in Big Ten play, the Badgers are shooting eight percent under that mark (43% eFG), and in their three losses, that number falls to 39.9% – twelve points under last year. The problem certainly exists at the top, where Jordan Taylor is shooting five points worse than last year, and failing to get to the line at nearly the same clip, but with five additional shot attempts a game, it seems like he’s trying to prop up a failing offense. Jarred Berggren has significantly increased his shot attempts in the past three games, but is only shooting 30.6% from the floor, making 1/12 three pointers. Ben Brust, a surprise at the start of the year, is shooting 31.8% (20% from three). Defensive star Ryan Evans is the next most frequent shooter, making 29.6%, and role players John Gasser and Mike Brusewitz have combined to shoot 38%. Simply, they have been the worst shooting team in college basketball over their streak.

Against Penn State, Purdue shot similarly to Wisconsin, but on a higher level, their shooting hasn’t been that poor – excepting that, they’ve rarely shot lower than the low-40′s. Purdue, oddly, is slipping significantly on the defensive side of the ball. Other than his first year in West Lafayette, Painter’s clubs have been top-ten in defensive efficiency every year, finishing 9th last year. This year, while solid, they’ve ballooned to 34th, and it’s largely come on the back of a lack of defensive rebounding as a result of losing JaJuan Johnson.

The other major factor is simple – Robbie Hummel isn’t the all-conference player he was. Hummel’s rebounding has stayed constant to the levels it was at when he shared the front-court with Johnson (with Johnson’s departure, you’d think his rate would improve), and his shooting is a dismal 36% against major-conference clubs. If Hummel can find his stroke again, the Boilermakers can look to improve.

Despite the fact that Purdue’s problems are more systematic than Wisconsin’s terrifying cold-streak, we think Purdue has the best opportunity to recover – Hummel is a good shooter, and proved it over three years. If he can find his stroke again, he’ll join an offense that is functioning fairly well despite him. The Purdue defensive problems are likely here to stay this year, but this is still a tourney team. Wisconsin, for their part, we’re less positive about. It’s nearly impossible that they can continue to shoot at this clip, but a close watching of their games reveals a team that just simply can’t create good looks at the hoop, and may not have anyone to make them, even if they saw them. If they can right the ship soon, and return to simply shooting “badly” and not “abhorrently”, this team has “NCAA 10 seed” written across them in bold letters.

The rankings:

1. Ohio State (15-2, 3-1)

The Buckeyes dispatched two teams from the dregs of the conference (Nebraska and Iowa) on their own floor by a total of 60 points. A road trip to Champagne and a chance of revenge on their own floor against Indiana raise the stakes this week.

2. Michigan State (14-2, 3-0)

The Spartans’ only action this week was a controversial win over Wisconsin in Madison, breaking their curse. Keith Appling (18 ppg in Big Ten play) has taken a giant step forward in the past three games.

3. Indiana (15-1, 3-1)

Indiana dispatched another ranked team at home, squeaking by the Wolverines by two points, before getting tested on the road against Penn State. The Hoosiers shot 58%, and only won by 6 - they’ll need their defense in Columbus.

4. Michigan (13-3, 3-1)

Michigan managed their first win in six years over Wisconsin, winning by nearly 20 despite shooting 38%, which atoned for a close loss in Bloomington. Jordan Morgan’s work on the offensive glass (13 offensive rebounds in his last 3 games) has helped the Wolverines get by despite some declining shooting performances.

5. Purdue (13-4, 3-1)

After their loss to Penn State, Purdue recovered by handily winning at Minnesota. Keep an eye on Ryne Smith – when he makes his shots, this team wins.

6. Illinois (14-3, 3-1)

Illinois skated by both Northwestern on the road (basically a home game), and Nebraska at home. They keep winning, but this winning streak is on Bambi-legs right now. Hosting Ohio State will give them the opportunity to prove themselves. We aren’t optimistic, even if Joseph Bertrand’s entrance into the lineup (14 ppg on 68% shooting) has given their offense a badly needed shot in the arm.

7. Wisconsin (12-5, 1-3)

Wisconsin games have truly been a treat to watch recently – while shooting 37% from the floor in Big Ten play, they have also supplied the #2 shooting defense in the nation for the year, and held the competition to 39% over the same stretch. How fans in Madison still have eyeballs, we aren’t sure.

8. Northwestern (11-4, 1-2)

Their only action was a two point loss to Illinois on their home floor. With trips to Michigan and Wisconsin sandwiching a game against Michigan State, things are about to get ugly. It’s too bad, because Bill Carmody needs a friend these days.

9. Iowa (10-7, 2-2)

Iowa! In the single digits! Iowa won consecutive conference games for the first time since 2007, which was the last time they once more than a single road game in-conference as well. Iowa hadn’t won consecutive road games since 2005. Think about THAT, Badgers and Gophers.

10. Penn State (9-8, 1-3)

Billy Oliver has shot 10/16 from three-point land in the last two games, and Tim Frazier has handed out 16 assists. Oliver can do nothing but shoot, and Frazier nothing but pass, but there you go.

11. Nebraska (8-7, 0-4)

Nebraska gets the nod by virtue of playing four conference opponents with a combined record of 52-10 while Minnesota lost a home game to Iowa.

12. Minnesota (12-5, 0-4)

I wonder who will take Tubby’s job.

• Big 10 Hoops: Michigan State at Michigan (January 17, 2012)
• Indiana Is Back, Nebraska Fans Storm Court (January 19, 2012)

Keith Appling had a huge game in the Spartans' victory over the Hoosiers

Under Bo Ryan, Wisconsin was 160-12 on the home floor at the Kohl Center. Ten of those twelve losses were to ranked opponents. Wisconsin was 12-2, with both losses coming against top 10 squads, including two dominating wins over UNLV and BYU – mortal locks for the NCAA tournament.

Iowa was 8-6, with losses to virtually every team of consequence they played, including a 16-point loss to Campbell on their home floor. In the last five years, Iowa sports a total of 2 victories over ranked opponents. You need to go back to 2005 to find their last road win over a top-ranked opponent, and back to 1993 to find the last time they beat Wisconsin (that was in Iowa City). If you wanted to find their last win in Madison, you’d need to be a far more diligent internet researcher than I.

But, weird things happen. Wisconsin put up an abysmal shooting night (34.8%), one that was likely self-inflicted, as Iowa, even after this performance, ranks 228th in the nation in eFG% defense. Jarred Berggren shot a disastrous 6-17 from the floor, and Berggren, Jordan Taylor, and Ben Brust shot a combined 3-21 from beyond the arc.  To top it off, defensive stalwart Reggie Evans fouled out in 15 minutes of play (thanks, Ted Valentine!), exposing an extremely shallow bench (five players played 87% of the minutes).

For their part, Iowa scorched the nets – freshman Austin White needed only seven shots to score 17 points, as the Hawkeyes shot 50% from the floor. When they were even missing shots, they grabbed over 35% of their missed shots, behind Melsahn Basabe’s 5 offensive rebounds. It all combined for a stunning upset.

Things were also quite tumultuous at the top of the standings. Indiana was buzz-sawed at the Breslin center in early in the week, watching a 7-point lead over the Spartan evaporate into a 15-point defeat in the blink of an eye. The Spartans were driven by a break-out game from Keith Appling, who took 12 shots to score 25 point, while dishing out 12 assists to two turnovers. The ball security was key, as the Spartans defied the Hoosier turnover machine, save for a brief flurry from Victor Olapido towards the end of the first half. The Spartans completely stifled the Hoosier offense – at one point during the run, more than two minutes passed before the Hoosiers had a single shot draw iron, as they flailed at the hoops late in the shot-clock. It was a complete obliteration – one that had this observer questioning Indiana’s place in the conference.

Which means, of course, that the Hoosiers would promptly go out and defeat another top-2 opponent. The Hoosiers didn’t shoot that much better in their victory over the Buckeyes, but they did manage a few things characteristic of their play early in the season: first, they limited the Buckeye’s cracks at the rim by forcing 17 turnovers – seven more than they did against the Spartans. Second, they avoided allowing a second 60%+ eFG% performance, though the Buckeyes did shoot fairly well. Third, and most importantly, they got to the line, behind Verdell Jones, Christian Watford, and Cody Zeller – getting 12 more points from the stripe than against the Spartans. This impacted more than just their offense – Jared Sullinger, DeShaun Thomas, and William Buford all spent large swaths of the game in foul trouble, and the result was somewhat off-kilter performances from Thomas and Buford, their second and third leading scorers. As Kansas established in their victory over a Sullinger-less Ohio State team, this is a club with a vanishingly thin front-court. Ravenal can’t stand up to quality post players (four fouls in 19 minutes), and nobody else on the roster is ready – Sam Thompson and Amir Williams are both 6’9″ and under 200 pounds.

Lets get on to the rankings. As a word of caution – these are intended to be predictive, not a straight-resume evaluation of performance, hence, why Ohio State is ranked over Indiana.

1. Ohio State (13-2, 1-1). The Buckeyes cling to the top-spot in this week’s ranking, but come chinks in the armor are visible – teams that can pound the ball inside and draw fouls can get them into dangerous spots, as Sullinger is the only quality option they have in the post. It’s unlikely that Buford and Thomas can combine to be as inconsequential as they were on Saturday, but a team like Michigan State should present a challenge.

2. Indiana (13-1, 1-1). The Hoosiers lost on the road against a scorchingly hot shooting night from the Spartans – it’s hard to believe that any team would have won that night. Of more concern is the way the offense left them in the second half. It’s been written here numerous times, but Victor Olapido is the bell-weather on the team – when he creates turnovers and runs the floor, as he did against Ohio State, they can beat anyone, even when they don’t shoot that well, as they haven’t the past two games. Getting Will Sheehey back will be a large boost as well.

3. Michigan State (13-2, 2-0). The Spartans big win came behind extremely hot shooting and uncharacteristically good ball security, neither of which seem likely to be sustained, as a turnover-plagued win over an incompetent Nebraska club, established. If they can continue to defend like they did against the Hoosiers, however, this is an extremely dangerous team. Appling’s breakout has the Spartans singing the praises of…Austin Thornton.

4. Wisconsin (12-3, 1-1). Taylor is still shooting badly, and Ben Brust’s hot start seems to be cooling off. Right now, there are significant and real questions about where the offense is going to come from this team, as they’re capable of shooting horrendously on their own court against an awful defense.

5. Michigan (12-2, 2-0). Two home wins over what we see as the dregs of the conference get you a big “MEH”, here. This week, they have to travel to Indiana and host Wisconsin – that should give us a bit more information on the Wolverines. One thing is for sure – Jordan Morgan needs to hang onto the ball, as he’s nearly solely responsible for the Wolverine’s steep downturn in ball-security year-over-year.

6. Purdue (12-3, 2-0). The Boilermakers eeked out a road win against Iowa, and then easily handled a mis-firing Illini team at home. Hummel is getting most of the publicity at this point, but he’s been an iffy shooter. Ryne Smith and Lewis Jackson have been their best players to date.

7. Illinois (12-3, 1-1). In our opinion, this is where the NCAA tournament stops. Illinois just struggles too much on offense to be a consistent threat to the upper-echelon of the conference. Myers Leonard put together a sparkling game against Minnesota, then vanished against Purdue. Brandon Paul seems to be stepping up his game a bit, which is badly needed.

8. Northwestern (11-3, 1-1). It’s become abundantly clear that the Wildcats oft-repeated mantra of “this year is the year we make the tournament” will never come to pass if they can’t learn to play any defense. Giving up 174 combined points to Creighton and Ohio State in consecutive games is an indication they haven’t figured it out.

9. Minnesota (12-3, 0-2). It’s never seemly to say “I told you so”, but yeah, the bloom has come off this rose. The Gophers are an interior-oriented team that lives off the glass that has gotten out-scored in the paint, and out-rebounded. Even the gift of an abysmal shooting night from the Wolverines (the one thing the Wolverines actually do well) wasn’t enough to get the Gophers a win.

10. Iowa (9-6, 1-1). I suspect this won’t last long, but the Hawkeyes put a scare into a decent Purdue team before knocking off the Badgers – it was a good week. What’s best is that they rediscovered Melsahn Basabe in the past eight games, as he’s averaging 14/8 on 57% shooting in that stretch. Best not to get carried away.

11. Nebraska (8-5, 0-2). Maybe we were wrong about these guys. The Big 12 must not be very good. Michigan State played badly, and beat them in a walk.

12. Penn State (8-7, 0-2). A shockingly bad basketball team. The entire team is predicated upon Tim Frazier, who isn’t even very good, taking every shot, making every pass, and grabbing every rebound. As a game-managing PG, he’s a valuable piece, but Talor Battle, he isn’t.

Christian Watford and Victor Oladipo have has plenty to celebrate

#13 Indiana at #16 Michigan State (-5.5),  7:30 PM

Perhaps no player defines his team quite as much as Draymond Green does Michigan State. It’s hardly surprising, given that the hefty senior leads the team in scoring, rebounding, assists, blocks, and steals, but it doesn’t make it less true – his strengths tend to be the strengths of the team, as do his weaknesses. Green is a gifted passer (3.5 assists a game from the post) who is careless with the ball (3 turnovers per game). He’s an elite rebounder, and an effective scorer when playing in his comfort zone (he shoots 50% inside the arc), but too frequently wanders beyond his range (31% on 3 attempts beyond the arc per game), which leads to an overall inefficient shooting performance. To top it off, he’s an active defender – a very effective shot-blocker, and his quick hands force plenty of turnovers in the post.

While this incarnation of the Spartans aren’t quite the same as the teams that made two straight Final Fours, they are much closer than last year’s edition, and that renaissance started on the glass. Green, Branden Dawson, Derrick Nix, and Adreian Payne are among the most effective offensive rebounders in the nation, and the Spartans are consequently the 17th best team in the nation on the offensive glass (they’re also no slouches on the defensive glass, ranking 19th). On defense, they effectively guard the opposition’s shooters, guarding well both inside and outside the arc, with their rebounding limiting the opposition’s chances. On the downside, two of the Spartans’ primary guards (Keith Appling and Travis Trice), and three of their primary post players (Green, Dawson, and Nix) sport profligate turnover rates, and nobody on the roster save shooting guard Brandon Wood and freshman Travis Trice  has proven to be that effective a jump shooter. The Spartans defense is most susceptible at the line, while Green, Trice, Appling, Nix, and Payne are rather liberal with their fouls.

The Hoosiers play into these tendencies in some ways, and don’t in others. Off to a red-hot start, the one flaw the Hoosiers have displayed is a tendency to surrender second chance points by failing to protect their own glass – Cody Zeller is the only above-average defensive rebounder on the team. Meanwhile, the Hoosiers are the 6th best shooting team in the nation, driven in part by a defense that is 12th best at forcing turnovers, thanks to ball-hawks like Victor Oladipo, and oddly, Center Cody Zeller – the Hoosier thrive on transition baskets. Even if they can’t get out in transition, the Hoosiers can stand and shoot with anyone – Jordan Hulls has been the nation’s most accurate shooter thus far, with a 73% eFG. He’s not alone – Zeller is deathly efficient in the paint, Oladipo manages an array of easy hoops in transition and on the offensive glass, and classmate Christian Watford is off to his finest season as a shooter yet. Sophomore reserve Will Sheehey rounds out the dangerous shooters. Finally, Oladipo, Sheehey, Zeller, and senior Verdell Jones all excel at getting to the line – an opportunity the Spartans will likely give them.

Both teams have played big games this year – Indiana has already vanquished state rivals Notre Dame and Butler while fending off top-ranked Kentucky on their home floor, while Michigan State lost two competitive neutral-court games to Duke and North Carolina, while beating Gonzaga in Spokane. The matchup will ultimately come down to which team exploits their strength the other teams’ corresponding weakness the most. Will the Spartans sufficiently be able to pound the Hoosiers on the glass? Will the Hoosiers be able to counter-act their disadvantage there with turnover margin and trips to the line?

The keys here are Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller – the two players that make the Hoosier engine run. Hulls and Watford are the two best shooters on the team, but Zeller and Oladipo, the two best defenders and rebounders, create what has been a surplus of shot attempts for the Hoosiers this year. Further, both, along with Hulls and Watford, have been extremely efficient with the ball in their hands. If Oladipo and Zeller can keep forcing turnovers and crash the offensive boards (behind these two, the Hoosiers are a respectable 57th in the nation in offensive rebounding), the Hoosiers should be able to survive the Spartan onslaught on the glass.

For their part, the Spartans badly need Appling, Trice, and Green to control the basketball. They’re the three primary ball-handlers, and all have largely failed at protecting the ball. Furthermore, the Spartan big-men need to guard without fouling. The Hoosiers have thrived at the free-throw line, the primary culprits are Zeller, their big man, and Oladipo and Sheehey – a pair of slashing wings. The Spartans will need to make their living off the glass – Green, Nix, Payne, and Dawson have all been efficient scorers cashing in bunnies afforded them by offensive rebounds – and as long as they continue to do so, the Spartans’ lack of outside shooting can be survived.

Despite being at the Breslin Center, this game feels like a toss-up, despite the 5.5 points the Hoosiers are getting. The betting public is generally senselessly pro-Spartan, apparently failing to remember that Raymar Morgan and Kalin Lucas aren’t suiting up, and the Spartans were one of the worst performers against the spread in Big 10 play last year. This spread feels way too big – the Spartans may well win this, but take the Hoosiers and the points.

Myers Leonard blocks lots of shots

Minnesota at Illinois (-5.5), 7:30 ET

The tastiest game of the opening night of conference play matches up two of the “surprise” teams of the conference’s out-of-conference slate. Illinois streaked to 10-0, winning at Maryland and defeating #19 Gonzaga at home prior to losing handily to UNLV in Champaign, then losing a competitive game at Missouri to close their slate. Given the mass attrition the Illini experienced, this was somewhat surprising – especially two credible performances on the road with an extremely young team. In the early-going, the offense has struggled substantially, but the defense has carried them through some squeakers against inferior competition.

For their part, the Golden Gophers, much reviled here prior to the season, walk into the game at 12-1. Prior to the season, we at the JCB predicted a sub-.500 record, which seems unlikely, but we’re not about to admit this is a good team. Minnesota scheduled their non-conference slate the way Bill Snyder schedules Kansas State’s football team – the premier victory here was a home squeaker against Virginia Tech mandated as part of the Big Ten/ACC challenge, winning despite not having Trevor Mbakwe. Minnesota has yet to play a road game, and have not faced another major-conference opponent outside of the Hokies. The one loss was a neutral-court blowout to Dayton, a likely tourney team who also holds an Alabama scalp.

The Gophers have played an eleven-man rotation, with minutes rationed accordingly. As a result, the per-game numbers don’t stand out for anyone, but the tempo-free numbers reveal some heroes and goats. Rodney Williams – he of the high hype and low productivity, has put together a solid season, particularly on the defensive end, where he is among the nation’s best shot-blockers and ball-hawks. Williams scores efficiently on the offensive end, but has a limited game, and his rebounding has somewhat disappointed. JUCO PG Julian Welch and sophomore point Maverick Ahanmisi sport high assist rates, but even higher turnover rates – the two worst in the conference. Unfortunately, freshman guard Andre Hollins is nipping at their heels in that department. Welch and Hollins are the closest thing the Gophers have to three-point shooters.

That said, the Gopher’s problems as a unit from last year remain – as you might think from the above, they’re the worst team in the conference at taking care of the ball, and one of the 20 worst in the nation in three-pointers made. Aside from Williams, they aren’t very good on the defensive end – their saving grace is their effective 2-point game, and their offensive rebounding, lead by Williams and reserve center Elliot Eliason. Against the dregs they’ve played, they have enough talent to pound the ball inside with impunity, since few teams outside of Dayton (23rd in effective height) had the size to stand up to them. What happens when their outside shooting can’t keep the defense honest?

Well, we’ll soon find out. Illini sophomore Myers Leonard has been the conference’s premier defensive big man in the early-going. He’s the best shot-blocker in the conference (the Illini as a team are tops in the conference), and a premier rebounder, particularly on the defensive boards. His policing of the paint and the defensive glass will be the key matchup against a team that thrives on pounding the ball inside and working the offensive glass. When he heads to the bench, reserve center Nnanna Egwu swats shots at an even higher rate. Like last year, the Illini were the 5th tallest team in college basketball (5th in effective height), and use that to throttle the opponent’s interior game (opponents shoot 41% inside the arc).

On offense, the Illini revolve around Leonard and DJ Richardson. Leonard, not only a defensive stalwart, shoots 62% from the floor, and has a diverse offensive game, with a range out to fifteen feet. Ralph Sampson III will need to  drink his coffee if the soporific senior hopes to slow Leonard down. For his part, Richardson has shot a preposterous 41% from three on nearly seven attempts a game. Richardson doesn’t contribute much outside of his shooting, but on a team struggling in that department (119th overall), he’s needed.

The Illini badly need Richardson’s running-mate, Brandon Paul, to break out of his funk. Paul is shooting 37% from the floor, and his three-point shooting has fallen ten points from last year – down to 26%. Meanwhile, with sharp-shooter Bill Cole graduated, senior transfer Sam Maniscalco has attempted to fill the void, but only shoots 31% on nearly five attempts a game. The net effect is that the Illini, last year’s 20th best three-point attack, has fallen to 142nd, Richardson’s heroics aside.

In a match-up of strength-0n-strength, the matchups seem to strongly favor the Illini defense – the offensive approach of the Gophers precisely plays into what the Illini excel at stopping. Further, in Leonard and Richardson, the Illini seem to have the two best players on the floor. Throw in the fact that this will be the Gophers’, whose 10-man rotation has six newcomers, first experience on the road, expect the notoriously raucous crown in Champaign to rattle them. The pick is the Illini, points be damned.

The tiny Lewis Jackson is a bright spot in a dark forest for Purdue

During Saturday’s loss to Butler, Purdue Point Guard Lewis Jackson had a sparkling game – 13 points on 55% shooting, 7 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals, and 0 turnovers. It was a masterful performance as the tiny guard slashed into the paint, creating opportunities for Ryne Smith and Robbie Hummel. Unfortunately, the prior mostly took advatange, the latter didn’t. And why was Kelsey Barlow shooting 13 times? Anyway, we digress.

While Jackson was doing that, Center Sandi Marcius fouled out in 13 minutes of play, somehow managing as many turnovers as rebounds – four. This left the willowy true freshman Jacob Lawson (6’8″, 218 pounds) to man the pivot as Butler’s Alex Smith tipped in the decisive bucket. In 13 minutes, Marcius managed to undo every great thing Jackson did for 30. Herein lies your 2011 Big Ten Pre-season.

Last weekend, a Sullinger-less OSU squad took Kansas to the limit on the road, Indiana downed #1 Kentucky on their home floor, and Michigan State, behind a dominant performance from Draymond Green, bullied Gonzaga in Spokane – it was a big day for conference dominance, coming on the heels of Ohio State’s win over Florida, Michigan’s win over Memphis on a neutral floor, and an 8-4 romp in the Big 10/ACC challenge, capped by OSU’s evisceration of the Blue Devils in Columbus.

Last weekend, however, things started to go a little pear-shaped. First, Memphis keeps losing, devaluing Michigan’s signature win by the day. Then, Purdue lost to the struggling Butler Bulldogs on a neutral court in Indianapolis – the second time in their last two losses that they’ve blow double digit leads with less than ten minutes on the clock. Then, Illinois was blown off their own floor by UNLV – a quality opponent, but a bad loss all the same. Northwestern needed a last-minute four-point-play to avoid adding to the insult – narrowly besting Central Connecticut in Evanston.

What’s come clear is this: the conference has only one truly elite team, in Ohio State (assuming Sullinger is on the floor). Indiana has yet to show many weaknesses, and have beaten a decent NC State team on the road in addition to their win over Kentucky, but much remains to be seen about the Hoosiers. Following that, the conference is staffed with a large “middle” of pretty good clubs with some (Purdue and Illinois) likely not as good as people may think. With Illinois facing Missouri and Northwestern facing Creighton before the Holiday, the conference has two more chances to add some quality feathers to their cap. For a league that could have as many as nine teams fighting for NCAA berths, all the non-conference scalps they can muster are needed.

On to the power-rankings:

1. Ohio State (11-1). The Buckeyes own two of the conferences three marquee wins, with victories over Florida and Duke. Losing at Kansas without Sullinger is hardly an embarrassment, and the absence of Sullinger has given Deshaun Thomas the opportunity to claim a larger role in the offense (16 points a game on 52% shooting). With a seven-man rotation, depth is a major concern, and with Sullinger fighting myriad injuries, the freshman post-players have looked unprepared on the defensive end.

2. Wisconsin (10-2). If we’re straight resume ranking, the Badgers probably don’t get this spot, with their strongest wins over solid teams from BYU and UNLV. Their loss at home to Marquette is fine, but somewhat disappointing, but their close call in Chapel Hill is what raised eyebrows at the JCB – a game in which an 18 free-throw disparity on the road provided the margin of victory. Jordan Taylor is off to a very slow start, but once he finds his stride, he should join the newly effective Jarred Berggren and Ben Brust to provide a solid offensive threesome.

3. Indiana (11-0). Indiana’s schedule hasn’t been the toughest, but they are in possession of the conference’s biggest win, and have held off at least two additional respectable teams to remain undefeated. Freshman Cody Zeller has largely answered out concerns about his weight (or lack thereof) so far, and Crean has settled upon a constant rotation, finally – one that finds more minutes for the slick-shooting Will Sheehey and swiss-army-knife Victor Oladipo.

4. Michigan State (10-2). Michigan State opened the season with competitive losses on neutral floors to both Duke and North Carolina – so that established that they aren’t an elite team. Since, they haven’t done that much of note – they killed a questionable Florida State club, and beat Gonzaga on the road by a score closer than the game was. What they have done is play much more like Michigan State – bludgeoning all comers on the glass, thanks to Draymond Green, Brendan Dawson, Derrick Nix, and Adreian Payne. Now they just need to value the basketball.

5. Michigan (9-2). As mentioned above, Michigan’s biggest win is over an over-rated, undisciplined Memphis team. Other than that, they’ve beaten a very disappointing UCLA club, played Duke close, and whipped a mediocre Iowa State club. Michigan’s defense has taken a dramatic step back from last year, as Zack Novak seems to struggle against guards off-the-ball, and Evan Smotrycz will never impress anyone with his defense. Freshman point-guard Trey Burke has largely impressed, but comes with turnover problems. What they have done, notably Smotrycz (68% eFG), is shoot – this is the 3rd best shooting team in college basketball.

6. Illinois (11-1). The Illini, despite their inexperience, have managed some good wins – beating Gonzaga at home and, most impressively, Maryland on the road (impressive because Bruce Weber got a young team to beat a decent opponent on the road). The downside was a horrid performance against UNLV that saw them shoot 25% from the floor in their own gym. This lays bear their problem – this is a horrid offensive team. They’re the worst shooting team in the Big Ten, they can’t get to the line, and they turn the ball over too much. Most of what’s going right on both ends of the floor is Sophomore Myers Leonard – his shot-blocking and rebounding drive the Illini defense, and, at 60% from the floor, he’s the only efficient offensive option. Oh, and it’s time that transfer Sam Maniscalco’s gritty tenure in the starting lineup comes to and end – guys that shoot 31% on 4 three-point attempts a game aren’t hard to find.

7. Purdue (10-3)

Purdue is an enigma. Their conventional and advanced stats look fine – Lewis Jackson has been phenomenal, Ryne Smith is the closest thing the league still has to the departed Jon Diebler, and Hummel is mostly intact from all his injuries (one quibble is some struggles shooting inside the arc). Their problems crop up outside of stats – they’ve just gotten out-clutched three times – in their three losses, they’ve been out-scored in the second half by 42 points, including a mind-numbing choke against Xavier and only slightly less of one against Butler. They need to figure it out, because in a league this competitive, close games will come by the truckload.

8. Northwestern (10-1)

They destroyed Georgia Tech on the road, getting everyone excited. Then they were killed by Baylor at home, extinguishing that. The key to their success is Drew Crawford – if he can be the efficient offensive player he’s been through the first eleven games, they have a shot at their first NCAA bid. Without him, the offense has nobody but Jon Shurna – and that won’t work. They’ve established they can beat bad major-conference teams (GT, Seton Hall, LSU) – a big test against Creighton looms.

9. Minnesota (11-1)

This is the Kansas State Football of non-conference slates. Their marquee win is against Virginia Tech, at home. There is no point guard, no discernible rotation, and Ralph Sampson III somehow looks less interested. The wheels on this car look pretty loose.

10. Nebraska (8-3)

So far, the Huskers have beaten bad teams and lost to OK ones. This doesn’t presage well for B10 play. Bo Spencer is the leader in the club-house the conference’s inefficient all-stars. 16 points a game doesn’t help much when it takes 13 shots.

11. Penn State (7-5)

Penn State gets the nod over Iowa because of sympathy. There’s not much here – no returning players save Tim Frazier, and no freshmen to fill in. The gap from #10 to #11 is large, and the Lions will have to fight for their three conference wins this year. How many times can they schedule Iowa?

12. Iowa (7-5)

They don’t get the nod because of anger – they should be this bad. Somehow, they went the first seven games ignoring Melsahn Basabe, who is the closest thing to an upper-division player they have. Since they started getting him more than three shots a game, he’s produced. In his stead, we’ve been treated to Matt Gatens and Iowa’s endless parade of guys that shoot 43% from the floor, yet can’t play defense. All these guys have experience at this point – Penn State has an excuse, I’m not sure what Iowa’s is.

Travis Trice needs a big game to keep the Zags honest

This is one of those matchups that looks much better before you start thinking about it. “Kansas is great! One of the best programs in the country!” you may be thinking. While there is still talent on hand, this isn’t the Kansas Jayhawks team of the last few years. When you examine what the Jayhawks lost last year – the Morris twins, sharp-shooters Tyrel Reed, Brady Morningstar, and Josh Selby (the combination of which accoutned for 77% of the Jayhawks’ starts last year), your first instict would be that a program like Kansas replaced them with some top-notch recruits. While that’s sort of the case, it’s really not.

What happened? The Jayhawks did pull two big-time recruits – forward Ben McClemore and point-guard Naadir Tharpe. But, McClemore has yet to see the floor, and Tharpe only plays nine minutes a game. This is, despite having few returning contributors, an oddly old team. Of the seven-man rotation, there are two seniors and four juniors, only two of whom got extensive playing time.

The first, and most important, is Junior power-forward Thomas Robinson. Robinson, is, simply, a powerhouse revealed by the departure of the Morris twins. Robinson is the single most effective defensive rebounder in the nation, and among the most effective offensive rebounders. He’s not an overly efficient scorer, but still shoots over 51% on over thirteen shots a game. Given how often he handles the ball, he hardly turns it over, while averaging over a block and steal per game. To top it off, he’s very effective at getting to the line. He’s the best player on the Jayhawks’s roster, and is possibly the best all-around player that will be on the floor Saturday. Yes, I know Jared Sullinger is playing.

The other chief contributor  to the Jayhawks is senior point-guard Tyshawn Taylor. A fixture in the Jayhawk back-court for the past few years, Taylor is now being counted on as a scorer for the first time – and at first glance, he’s succeeding, scoring 17 a game with a 54% eFG%. In addition, he’s excelled at getting to the line – only two players in nation have been better. What’s come with that, however is turnovers. When he was just a facilitator, Taylor showed himself to be a reliable ball-handler, but this year, he’s averaging over four turnovers a game – more than he dishes the ball out. Is this a fluke, or is this a result of his greater offensive role? It remains to be seen.

Junior seven-footer Jeff Withey is an efficient scorer in limited opportunities who, like Robinson, excels on the glass in addition to being one of the best shot-blockers in college basketball. Combo-guard Elijah Johnson helps take some of the ball-handling and play-making duties from Taylor, but is a liability when asked to shoot. He and turnover-prone guard Trais Releford are the best defenders on the team, and round out the starting lineup, while the two only make 25% of eight combined three-point attempts a game. Past Taylor, the only reliable outside shooter is reserve guard Connor Teahen, who connects on 45% of his attempts.

Kansas plays a relatively fast-paced game, and sports strong presence on both sides of the court, but defense, where their shot-blocking (9th in the nation) keeps opponents to a paltry 37% shooting mark, and their defensive rebounding (13th in the nation) keep the opponents chances limited. The Jayhawks poorly defend beyond the arc, but this doesn’t mean the inside should be forfeited – they put the opposition on the line at an alarmingly high rate. On offense, the best thing they do is get the ball to Thomas Robinson – they’re very dependent on two-point scoring and on him and Taylor getting to the line.

The Buckeyes can’t expect to exploit the Jayhawks’ greatest defensive weakness – three-point shooting. After losing Jon Diebler and David Lighty, the only remaining effective outside shooter is William Buford. This leaves them to feed Jared Sullinger and DeShaun Thomas in the paint, and to challenge the Kansas shot-blockers. Sullinger may get his shot blocked, but he’s extremely effective at drawing whistles while the Jayhawks tend to foul at a profligate rate. A key to the game will be how well the Jayhawks defend Sullinger – if they put him on the line a ton, they’ll have a long day. If they can make him work, they’ll have a shot.

The other key matchup will be the shaky Jayhawk ball-handlers against Aaron Craft – a turnover producing machine. Craft is the best ball-thief in NCAA basketball, a charge-drawing magnet, and an unbelivably irritating defender. Running mate Lenzelle Smith plays because of his defense and is nearly as disruptive as Craft. Taylor and Johnson need to possess the ball against this pressure.

When it comes down to it, the Jayhawks will have some success frustrating Sullinger and Thomas Robinson will likely have some success on the smaller Buckeye interior. But this game matches up two of the fifteen best defensive rebounding teams in the nation – nobody will be getting extra possessions on the offensive glass. The other opportunity for extra possessions – turnovers – isn’t nearly as even-handed. Expect to see Craft and Smith frustrate the Jayhawk guards into numerous mistakes, giving more opportunities to the deathly efficient Sullinger and William Buford.

Despite Sullinger’s bout with back problems, the Buckeyes are still 2.5 point favorites on the road. With him at full strength, it’s not a question – take the Buckeyes. They will still certainly need him, but expect the Buckeye defense to carry the day – take the Bucks and lay the points

MSU (+3.5) vs. #23 Gonzaga

Despite two early setbacks to Duke and North Carolina, this Michigan State team has, in the early going, resembled the Tom Izzo ideal much more than last year’s iteration. The Spartans play stifling defense inside and out (20th in eFG% against), crash the boards (12th in defensive rebounding, 20th in offensive) block shots, and score inside. What remains, however, is a struggling offense.

While they’ve found some improved play-making by committee (Draymond Green, Brandon Wood, and Keith Appling have all been solid), they still turn the ball over too much. While they’ve found a solid inside game on their offense (through Draymond Green, Branden Dawson, Adreian Payne, and Derrick Nix), they still can’t shoot from beyond the arc, where Travis Trice is the only shooter who has excelled thus far.

Gonzaga, for their part, excels on offense, with an oddly average defense. Their offense relies on two things: seven-footer Robert Sacre and forward Elias Harris getting to the line (Gonaga is one of the best teams in the nation at getting to the stripe), and freshmen Kevin Pangos and David Stockon (yes, son of John) drilling three-point shots from the perimeter. The inside-outside game is buoyed by Marquise Carter – an offensive cipher who rivals Aaron Craft in defensive intensity.

This matchup is very much strength vs. strength and weakness vs. weakness. Can the Gonzaga attack, so reliant on fouls, get to the line enough against the stout Spartan defense? Will Pangos and Stockton have shots on the perimeter? On the other end, can the mediocre Spartan offense score enough on the mediocre Bulldog defense? Will the shaky Spartan guards wilt under pressure from Marquise Carter?

With the Bulldogs at home, and a Western Conference referee team on site, expect the Bulldogs to eke out a tight win. The Bulldogs live at the line, and with the homecourt and home refs, they should get the opportunites to continue to thrive in that respect. Pick the Zags, but if you notice them having a hard time with the refs, it may be time to start checking 2nd half bets for a hedge.

So what returns? Most importantly, the Nittany Lions return point-guard Tim Frazier. As a sophomore, Frazier was not much of a scorer (his eFG% a paltry 46%), but he was an effective game manager, with his assists nearly doubling his turnovers. He also was Penn State’s most effective ball-hawk. They also return sophomore Billy Oliver – their all-purpose front-court substitute. Oliver was the one player who got consistent minutes off the bench, but failed to distinguish himself in any meaningful way – he was a poor shooter, a mediocre rebounder, and a forgettable defender. He is also, likely, the starting power forward.

The next most used players from last year’s teams are a pair of guards – Cameron Woodyard and Jermaine Marshall, who were pressed into service during foul-trouble, disciplinary benchings, or injury. Woodyard, a rising senior, largely did nothing but miss a ton of shots when he was on the floor, he’s likely not a starter. Jermaine Marshall, a rising sophomore, didn’t really distinguish himself, but the bar here is low – he’s your likely starting shooting guard.

This being Penn State, their recruiting class doesn’t offer a bounty of riches. Small Forward Ross Travis was the only recruit ranked by all four major scouting bureaus, meriting a unanimous 3-star ranking. Center Pat Ackerman warranted a 3-star ranking from one service, but was un-noted by anybody else. There are two players who red-shirted last year with a bit more hype to them, however. Jonathan Graham is a red-shirt freshman power-forward who was a unanimous three-star recruit noted for his effort levels, while sophomore Sasa Borovnjak played sparingly as a true-freshman, then spent last year sidelined with a knee injury. These two will likely join Oliver in the front-court, with Travis and Ackerman being the primary replacements.

Unsurprisingly, the Lions have leaned on Tim Frazier heavily out of the gates. Formerly a guard tasked with protecting the ball and defense, Frazier is the leading scorer (19.5 points per game), passer (7.1 assists), rebounder (5.7 rebounds), and stopper (2.3 steals). It’s really something of a heroic effort – he’s turned the ball over a fair amount, but his assist rate still nearly doubles that value, and he’s really doing it by himself. His shooting has improved by two points from the floor and seven from three-point in significantly higher usage – at this rate, his statistical profile is that of a better Talor Battle. Yes, you read that correctly. Moreover, he’s not just doing it against lightweights, scoring 22 against Mississippi and 19 at Boston College. The problem is that, as predicted, there’s nothing else here – Frazier and sophomore Sasa Borovjnak are the only players shooting over 40% from the floor, and Borovjnak only takes three shots a game. It’s a mystery who is scoring enough for Frazier to get seven assists a game.

There’s no way to sugar-court the prospects of the Nittany Lions – this is the worst roster in the conference by a fairly wide margin. There is no proven scorer on the team, inside or out, or a proven rebounder, or interior defender. The one thing this team does have is a point guard – but there’s nobody to whom he can pass the ball. This team is going to have to cross their fingers and hope they can knock Iowa off when they come to Happy Valley, because, while I’m sure they’ll win a game or two, I can’t see them being a favorite once during the conference slate.

Melsahn Basabe out-played Jared Sullinger heads-up last year. For some reason, Iowa would rather give the ball to guys name Roy and Zack.

In many ways, Iowa and Indiana are similar clubs. Both finished at the bottom of the Big 10 last year (the differentiating mark was the Hawkeyes’ season sweep of the Hoosiers). Both teams return all but a single contributor (the Hoosiers lose the invisible Jeremiah Rivers, the Hawkeyes lose rebounding machine Jarryd Cole). Both teams feature large swaths of under-classmen growing into their own. It’s somewhat jarring, then, that one team’s glaring weakness is the other’s glaring strength – in this case, fouling.

 Indiana was among the ten worst teams in the nation at keeping the opposition off the charity stripe, while Iowa was among the fifteen best. This single stat moves Iowa’s defense from “mediocre” to “solid”. Despite having two excellent rate-rebounders in Melsahn Basabe and Jarryd Cole, the Hawkeyes, due to their own foul-troubles, weren’t very good defensive rebounders, and they were rather poor at forcing bad shooting performances. The defense, led by Eric May, was moderately successful at forcing turnovers, but their single best trait was simply keeping the opposition’s offense honest by making them score from the floor.

 The Hawkeyes will need that defense, because the offense, simply, is terrible. Let’s start with the good: Melsahn Basabe. Basabe is the one upper-division quality player on the roster – the one that wouldn’t be out of place on some of the better rosters in basketball. Basabe, a somewhat un-recruited freshman who followed Coach Fran McCaffery from Siena, floated through the pre-season occasionally making an impact, but exploded in the second conference game against Ohio State– putting up a 22/13 and out-playing Jared Sullinger in a narrow loss in Columbus. From then on, he was a revelation, only occasionally held back by his own profligate foul rate, or the team’s bizarre tendency to occasionally forget he existed. At the end of the season, Basabe was one of the league’s most efficient scorers, best rebounders, shot-blockers, and foul magnet, drawing five fouls a game. Assuming he grows out of his foul-problems, Basabe is on course to be an all-conference selection as early as this year.

 Unfortunately, there isn’t much else here. Matt Gatens and Eric May are average offensive players, which, on Iowa, make them their second-best options. Shooting only 33% on five three-point attempts a game, while providing no rebounding or defense, it’s debatable Gatens can even be described as average. May, for his part, is a staunch defender with a respectable shooting percentage on a team surrounded by brick-layers. Bryce Cartwright scored some points, but, like Gatens, shot under 40% from the floor without any semblance of three-point shooting to make his eFG% respectable. Toss in a league-leading 3.3 turnovers a game, and he’s a dubious point-guard at best. Freshmen Roy Devin Marble and Zach McCabe played a lot, but, like Gatens and Cartwright, shot 35% and 37% from the floor. Andrew Brommer, a rising senior, has all of Basabe’s fouling problems with none of the upside, and rising senior Devon Archie, a respectable rebounder in limited minutes seems destined for the Jarryd Cole role – he won’t shoot, ever.

With a freshman class most kindly described as “over-looked”, the only addition they can expect is Junior Cully Payne – last year’s starting PG who missed all but the season’s first five games. Its possible be can supplant Cartwright freeing him to…I’m not sure what. Most likely, the starting lineup is Payne/Cartwright, Gatens, May, Brommer, and Basabe, with Marble and McCabe filling in at the wings, and Archie spelling the bigs off the bench.

Unofruntaley, as the season has progressed, the Hawkeyes hopes for improvement seem to be fizzling, as losses at Creighton (by 23) and Campbell (by 16 at home. No, I don’t know what Campbell is either) have added up. The Hawkeyes were at their worst last year when they didn’t get the ball to Melsahn Basabe – unfortunately, that appears to be the rule this year. In their three losses, he’s taken a total of fourteen shots and zero free throws, after averaging 9 shots and 4 free throws in Big Ten Play last year (he averaging 5 shots a game on the season this year). When the Hawkeyes fail to get him the ball, it means those shots are being spread among career sub-40% shooter Matt Gatens, Roy Marble, and Zack McCabe. This is hardly a fair trade-off. Freshman Josh Oglesby has gotten off to a hot start as a three-point gunner, but short of that, there’s not much solace to take in the Hawkeye start.

The league is a bit worse, and natural maturation should make the Hawkeyes a bit better, but this is still a cellar-dwelling club, unless Basabe proves Jared Sullinger’s equal, which seems unlikely given the Hawkeyes’ refusal to allow him to do so. It’s possible they’re better than a Mbakwe-less Minnesota club or Penn State, but it’s questionable.