College Basketball

Big Ten Hoops is All Cain and Abel

January 19, 2012
By

Guys don't get carried off the floor on people's shoulders much these days. 43 points will do that.

Any recent fan of Big Ten athletics is undoubtedly familiar with the senseless pap that gets thrown around in the name of the conference. Something about the rust-belt Midwestern sprawl of the conference prompts senseless talking-heads to ascribe a slew of blue-collar sensibilities to the style of play in THE BIG TEN CONFERENCE (this should be said in your best Merrill Hoge “NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE” voice). The assertion is that the physical, brawny Big Ten will dissemble any newfangled wrinkle of innovation. Lately, in football, this has been a sop – the conference is down, not just compared to it’s SEC rivals, and it seems like a minimum level of competence in any scheme (TACKLING works in the BIG TEN CONFERENCE) is enough to warrant success. Further, it’s often a lie – the image of the conference is between the tackles old-school football which really only applied to Wisconsin this past year.

In basketball, however, this is close to law – the conference DOES play slower, it DOES play more physical (witness a “soft team like Michigan’s recent win over MSU for an example) and it DOES punish teams that can’t match these qualities (see: Northwestern’s significant difficulties in taking down more than one good team a year). What worse is that for the past few years, the conference has been brutally deep, with teams from the top echelon struggling to win on the road, anywhere.

Last week, the Big Ten had four teams ranked in the top 25, and every single team dropped a road game to an unranked opponent. Three of these losses came to Iowa, Nebraska, and Northwestern, and the combined conference record of the victors was an uninspiring 11-14. These games have been unforgiving, and it’s not just because the favorite plays poorly: Ohio State lost a game that saw them take 21 more shots than Illinois, Indiana out-shot Nebraska by 14 percentage points, and Michigan State posted their best eFG% of Big 10 play against Northwestern. The opposition has just found ways to win – from Illinois conference-worst shooting team hitting 60% from the floor, Nebraska’s 275th ranked offensive rebounding attacking winning the battle on the boards, and Northwestern’s porous defense forced turnovers on 25% of the Spartans possessions. It’s just a jungle out there.

What does it mean going forward? Since going to an 18-game conference slate, the conference has been won by a team that goes 15-3 or better in three of four years, with the lone exception being 2010, when three times tied at 14-4 and a fourth finished at 13-5 – the most top-heavy performance in league history. With every favorite sitting with at least two conference losses a mere third of the way through the season, this figures to be the lowest win figure to take the conference since the expanded conference slate. Illinois sits at the top with one loss, but with two to play against both Wisconsin and Michigan, road-trips to Indiana and Ohio State, and a game against Michigan State, some losses are coming. The bet here is that you see the conference’s first 13-win champion since the expanded conference slate.

Onto the power-rankings: Read more »

Big 10 Hoops: Michigan State at Michigan

January 17, 2012
By

(Chitownblue has been putting together great Big 10 Hoop posts so far this year. I have not been doing any basketball writing. Until this post. I feel rusty talking about hoops, so bear with me, HALOL)

For the first time since 1998, Michigan and Michigan State meet on the hardwood as ranked opponents. It’s been a long time. But, for most of the 1980s and 1990s matches with both in the rankings were fairly regular from the Joubert/Skiles rivalry to the winter of 1990 when Michigan was defending national champs while MSU streaked to the Big 10 title behind Steve Smith to those games in the early days of the Izzo tenure/final days of the Steve Fisher tenure. Michigan Hoops has been in the wilderness, but John Beilein seems to have led them out of the forest and back into NCAA relevancy. In some ways, tonight’s game is a must win for both sides. Michigan State needs the win to keep its early lead in the Big 1o race and stay ahead of Ohio State with the first of two matches with the Buckeyes looMing still three weeks out in the distance. As for Michigan, they dont want that third league loss and fall too far off the lead pack. But a loss tonight really sets up the chance for a protracted losing streak. Coming in off a defeat at Iowa, the Wolverines face a stretch after tonight that includes five road games in six starts, including stops at Arkansas, Purdue, Ohio State and a rematch in East Lansing against the Spartans. The Chicken Little in me wonders if a loss tonight wont be part of something akin to a 5-game skid and losses in six of seven. If so, look for the Wolverines, despite such heady preseason expectations, to be on the wrong side of the bubble by early February.  A win tonight would give them immeasurable breathing room should the upcoming three weeks be short on victories. It’s a rivalry game.  Get your talking points straight. Before our prediction, lets take a look at the protagonists this evening.

MICHIGAN STATE AT MICHIGAN, 7:00, ESPN. LINES, MSU -2, 0/U 132

What a difference a year makes for Michigan State. A year ago, the Spartans season devolved into a disaster, at least by modern day, Tom Izzo Era standards up in East Lansing. They dropped to .500 in league play, were bounced in ugly fashion in the first round of the NCAAs by UCLA and pretty much never looked like a cohesive basketball team for much of the season. This year? They look primed to return to the top of the Big 10 standings and rediscover their famous March Mojo. A year ago, the Spartans had the 62nd and 30th offensive and defensive rated efficiency teams in the land per KenPom. This season, they’re 7th and 9th, one of a few teams ranked in the top-10 in efficiency on both ends of the floor.  A year ago their offensive EFG% was 190th in the land. This season, they’re sharpshooters by comparison, ranking 48th in the country. In 2010-11, their defensive EFG% was 112th in the nation, while this year their EFG% on D is 23rd nationally. They’re a little bit better at shooting the 3-ball this year, but the biggest gains have been their 2-point field goal marksmanship having improved from 46.7% and 214th in the land a season ago to 52%, 48th in the country this year.

I’m sure we can dig up a bunch more hard core numbers to further back the on-court improvement, but I dont think any of that even matters. I think there is a chemistry difference between the two squads, and that’s been the biggest factor behind this year’s Green and White Renaissance. Last year’s club was caught up in their individual games, their pro prospects and never seemed to be on the same page with Izzo. The coach kicked Korrie Luscious off the team, but he was popular among his teammates. Lets just put it this way, whats the Over/Under on number of times last winter, post Luscious expulsion, that the players with Korrie in tow, got together, passed a joint around a circle and bitched about their asshole head coach. Whatever you’re setting the number at, I’m taking the Over. All of those guys are gone, replaced by fresh faces or holdovers with larger roles. And its amazing what can be accomplished when coaches and players like each other.  I know this aint twitter, but that deserves a #justsayin’.

As for the actual players, Draymond Green is putting in an All Big 10 First Team caliber performance. He’s avergaing 15.8 points per game and 10.1 boards.  He’s had 10 double-doubles this season, including three in a row coming into tonight. He’s had his own leadership aneurysm, his head coach is so in love, he calls him by cute nicknames like Day Day and, by his example, this team’s performance has done a 180 from last year. His frontcourt play has been backed up by a stellar guard unit. Keith Appling, Brandon Wood and Travis Trice arent as explosive scorers as last year’s guards were, but they’re more efficient, play within themselves and the game circumstances a bit better and turn the ball over less. It might not be as star studded, but this backcourt is better than a year ago. I say that as a big Kailon Lucas fan, too. Wood, the transfer from Valpo is such a smart player and never takes a bad shot. Appling is taking a major leap his sophomore year, showcasing why he had such hot recruiting bonafides coming out of Detroit’s Pershing High. With eight players netting at least 18 minutes a game, the Spartans are a deepish team and Izzo, unlike a year ago, has a lot of different options in his coaching bag if Plan A isnt working. Its all added up to being back in the Big 10 Championship mix. Read more »

Big Ten Hoops Examines the Disappointments

January 9, 2012
By

Come on, Big Ten! Make me stop posting Hoosier pictures! Next time it's a Crean-face.

At the start of the year, we pegged the Wisconsin Badgers and Purdue Boilermakers – two teams that had spent most of the past four years at the top of the conference, as second and third in the conference, respectively. It was clear they lost production – Purdue lost conference player-of-the-year JaJuan Johnson and running-mate E’Twaun Moore while Wisconsin lost senior star Jon Leuer in addition to sharp-shooter Keaton Nankivil. There was some reason for optimism – Purdue returned all-conference caliber Robbie Hummel, who had missed all of the previous year, while Wisconsin seemed to have some highly-rated players to fill Leuer’s shoes, and a daunting home-floor advantage to paper over some weaknesses.

But things don’t always work out – Wisconsin has lost three consecutive games, two at home, and one of those to…Iowa? Purdue, for their part, got blown out in hyperbole-inspiring fashion by Penn State after seemingly righting the ship at home against Illinois. What, if anything, did we get wrong about these teams? Are these aberrations, or these bad teams?

Wisconsin, for years, has been an elite offense hiding behind a snail’s pace. In five of the past six years, they’ve been, adjusted for tempo, one of the 25 best offensive teams in the nation, peaking out at 2nd last year. During this span, their shooting has ranged from “pretty good” to “mediocre”, but what’s always kept them intact has been ball-security – with four appearances in the top 10 in the category. The key, simply, is their shooting. On the year, they don’t appear to have taken a huge step backwards – their eFG% has only dropped one percent. However, in Big Ten play, the Badgers are shooting eight percent under that mark (43% eFG), and in their three losses, that number falls to 39.9% – twelve points under last year. The problem certainly exists at the top, where Jordan Taylor is shooting five points worse than last year, and failing to get to the line at nearly the same clip, but with five additional shot attempts a game, it seems like he’s trying to prop up a failing offense. Jarred Berggren has significantly increased his shot attempts in the past three games, but is only shooting 30.6% from the floor, making 1/12 three pointers. Ben Brust, a surprise at the start of the year, is shooting 31.8% (20% from three). Defensive star Ryan Evans is the next most frequent shooter, making 29.6%, and role players John Gasser and Mike Brusewitz have combined to shoot 38%. Simply, they have been the worst shooting team in college basketball over their streak.

Against Penn State, Purdue shot similarly to Wisconsin, but on a higher level, their shooting hasn’t been that poor – excepting that, they’ve rarely shot lower than the low-40′s. Purdue, oddly, is slipping significantly on the defensive side of the ball. Other than his first year in West Lafayette, Painter’s clubs have been top-ten in defensive efficiency every year, finishing 9th last year. This year, while solid, they’ve ballooned to 34th, and it’s largely come on the back of a lack of defensive rebounding as a result of losing JaJuan Johnson.

The other major factor is simple – Robbie Hummel isn’t the all-conference player he was. Hummel’s rebounding has stayed constant to the levels it was at when he shared the front-court with Johnson (with Johnson’s departure, you’d think his rate would improve), and his shooting is a dismal 36% against major-conference clubs. If Hummel can find his stroke again, the Boilermakers can look to improve. Read more »

Big Ten Hoops Gets Confusing

January 3, 2012
By

Keith Appling had a huge game in the Spartans' victory over the Hoosiers

Under Bo Ryan, Wisconsin was 160-12 on the home floor at the Kohl Center. Ten of those twelve losses were to ranked opponents. Wisconsin was 12-2, with both losses coming against top 10 squads, including two dominating wins over UNLV and BYU – mortal locks for the NCAA tournament.

Iowa was 8-6, with losses to virtually every team of consequence they played, including a 16-point loss to Campbell on their home floor. In the last five years, Iowa sports a total of 2 victories over ranked opponents. You need to go back to 2005 to find their last road win over a top-ranked opponent, and back to 1993 to find the last time they beat Wisconsin (that was in Iowa City). If you wanted to find their last win in Madison, you’d need to be a far more diligent internet researcher than I.

But, weird things happen. Wisconsin put up an abysmal shooting night (34.8%), one that was likely self-inflicted, as Iowa, even after this performance, ranks 228th in the nation in eFG% defense. Jarred Berggren shot a disastrous 6-17 from the floor, and Berggren, Jordan Taylor, and Ben Brust shot a combined 3-21 from beyond the arc.  To top it off, defensive stalwart Reggie Evans fouled out in 15 minutes of play (thanks, Ted Valentine!), exposing an extremely shallow bench (five players played 87% of the minutes).

For their part, Iowa scorched the nets – freshman Austin White needed only seven shots to score 17 points, as the Hawkeyes shot 50% from the floor. When they were even missing shots, they grabbed over 35% of their missed shots, behind Melsahn Basabe’s 5 offensive rebounds. It all combined for a stunning upset.

Things were also quite tumultuous at the top of the standings. Indiana was buzz-sawed at the Breslin center in early in the week, watching a 7-point lead over the Spartan evaporate into a 15-point defeat in the blink of an eye. The Spartans were driven by a break-out game from Keith Appling, who took 12 shots to score 25 point, while dishing out 12 assists to two turnovers. The ball security was key, as the Spartans defied the Hoosier turnover machine, save for a brief flurry from Victor Olapido towards the end of the first half. The Spartans completely stifled the Hoosier offense – at one point during the run, more than two minutes passed before the Hoosiers had a single shot draw iron, as they flailed at the hoops late in the shot-clock. It was a complete obliteration – one that had this observer questioning Indiana’s place in the conference.

Which means, of course, that the Hoosiers would promptly go out and defeat another top-2 opponent. The Hoosiers didn’t shoot that much better in their victory over the Buckeyes, but they did manage a few things characteristic of their play early in the season: first, they limited the Buckeye’s cracks at the rim by forcing 17 turnovers – seven more than they did against the Spartans. Second, they avoided allowing a second 60%+ eFG% performance, though the Buckeyes did shoot fairly well. Third, and most importantly, they got to the line, behind Verdell Jones, Christian Watford, and Cody Zeller – getting 12 more points from the stripe than against the Spartans. This impacted more than just their offense – Jared Sullinger, DeShaun Thomas, and William Buford all spent large swaths of the game in foul trouble, and the result was somewhat off-kilter performances from Thomas and Buford, their second and third leading scorers. As Kansas established in their victory over a Sullinger-less Ohio State team, this is a club with a vanishingly thin front-court. Ravenal can’t stand up to quality post players (four fouls in 19 minutes), and nobody else on the roster is ready – Sam Thompson and Amir Williams are both 6’9″ and under 200 pounds. Read more »

Big Ten Hoops: Indiana at Michigan State

December 28, 2011
By

Christian Watford and Victor Oladipo have has plenty to celebrate

#13 Indiana at #16 Michigan State (-5.5),  7:30 PM

Perhaps no player defines his team quite as much as Draymond Green does Michigan State. It’s hardly surprising, given that the hefty senior leads the team in scoring, rebounding, assists, blocks, and steals, but it doesn’t make it less true – his strengths tend to be the strengths of the team, as do his weaknesses. Green is a gifted passer (3.5 assists a game from the post) who is careless with the ball (3 turnovers per game). He’s an elite rebounder, and an effective scorer when playing in his comfort zone (he shoots 50% inside the arc), but too frequently wanders beyond his range (31% on 3 attempts beyond the arc per game), which leads to an overall inefficient shooting performance. To top it off, he’s an active defender – a very effective shot-blocker, and his quick hands force plenty of turnovers in the post.

While this incarnation of the Spartans aren’t quite the same as the teams that made two straight Final Fours, they are much closer than last year’s edition, and that renaissance started on the glass. Green, Branden Dawson, Derrick Nix, and Adreian Payne are among the most effective offensive rebounders in the nation, and the Spartans are consequently the 17th best team in the nation on the offensive glass (they’re also no slouches on the defensive glass, ranking 19th). On defense, they effectively guard the opposition’s shooters, guarding well both inside and outside the arc, with their rebounding limiting the opposition’s chances. On the downside, two of the Spartans’ primary guards (Keith Appling and Travis Trice), and three of their primary post players (Green, Dawson, and Nix) sport profligate turnover rates, and nobody on the roster save shooting guard Brandon Wood and freshman Travis Trice  has proven to be that effective a jump shooter. The Spartans defense is most susceptible at the line, while Green, Trice, Appling, Nix, and Payne are rather liberal with their fouls.

The Hoosiers play into these tendencies in some ways, and don’t in others. Off to a red-hot start, the one flaw the Hoosiers have displayed is a tendency to surrender second chance points by failing to protect their own glass – Cody Zeller is the only above-average defensive rebounder on the team. Meanwhile, the Hoosiers are the 6th best shooting team in the nation, driven in part by a defense that is 12th best at forcing turnovers, thanks to ball-hawks like Victor Oladipo, and oddly, Center Cody Zeller – the Hoosier thrive on transition baskets. Even if they can’t get out in transition, the Hoosiers can stand and shoot with anyone – Jordan Hulls has been the nation’s most accurate shooter thus far, with a 73% eFG. He’s not alone – Zeller is deathly efficient in the paint, Oladipo manages an array of easy hoops in transition and on the offensive glass, and classmate Christian Watford is off to his finest season as a shooter yet. Sophomore reserve Will Sheehey rounds out the dangerous shooters. Finally, Oladipo, Sheehey, Zeller, and senior Verdell Jones all excel at getting to the line – an opportunity the Spartans will likely give them.

Both teams have played big games this year – Indiana has already vanquished state rivals Notre Dame and Butler while fending off top-ranked Kentucky on their home floor, while Michigan State lost two competitive neutral-court games to Duke and North Carolina, while beating Gonzaga in Spokane. The matchup will ultimately come down to which team exploits their strength the other teams’ corresponding weakness the most. Will the Spartans sufficiently be able to pound the Hoosiers on the glass? Will the Hoosiers be able to counter-act their disadvantage there with turnover margin and trips to the line?

The keys here are Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller – the two players that make the Hoosier engine run. Hulls and Watford are the two best shooters on the team, but Zeller and Oladipo, the two best defenders and rebounders, create what has been a surplus of shot attempts for the Hoosiers this year. Further, both, along with Hulls and Watford, have been extremely efficient with the ball in their hands. If Oladipo and Zeller can keep forcing turnovers and crash the offensive boards (behind these two, the Hoosiers are a respectable 57th in the nation in offensive rebounding), the Hoosiers should be able to survive the Spartan onslaught on the glass. Read more »