Bubble News

(Check out Part One of today Bubble’s setup. And you absolutely must check out our new twitter powers.)

Any chance you have, like, eight TVs set up? You do? Oh, well then you’re in luck, you can put all these games on that tip off at 4pm and track the bubble yourself. As always, the Bracket Matrix guides you as to the current shape of the ever fluid February bubble. With this many great games going on, I’m bound to have a pick or two or five. As always, check the bottom of the post. A post for the night games will follow shortly. If you’re snowed in up north, I hope you’re enjoying the day inside watching hoops.

Clemson at Virginia Tech. Lines, VT -1.5, O/U 134

The Hokies are a half game ahead of Clemson in the ACC standings, but are a ways behind them in the bubble.  Clemson is a unanimous selection, seeded on the 8-line. The Hokies received just nine total votes and arent even in the Final Eight Out group. Virginia Tech has a lot of resume games upcoming. They can easily play their way into the field if they can bag enough big scalpes like they have on the line today. It’s imperative to hold serve at home. This is more important for their cause than the win over North Carolina earlier in the week.

Old Dominion at VCU. Lines: VCU -2.5, O/U 132

I talked about the Atlantic 10 creating bubble arguments over the next several weeks as a record number of prospects pushes for the league’s most invites ever. You might as well brush up on your Colonial Athletic Association numbers as well. There are five teams in this league–ODU, VCU, William/Mary, George Mason and Northeastern that I think could win games should they make the tournament. Unlike the A10, there wont be close to enough room for them all. It’s going to be hard just to get a second bid, making the regular season title chase, currently a three-way 10-2 tie between ODU, Mason and Northeastern one of the more intriuging to watch. And it will make the CAA Sectional, one month from now during the first weekend of March, one of the best league tournaments from start to finish during Championship Week. Let the debate begin on on the worthiness of this mid-major league.  VCU is just two games behind the three-way pack, so they can gain some ground. They’re also in great shape to make an at large case if they close the season strong and gets wins over some of the contenders ahead of them like the Monarchs. Meanwhile, also tipping at 4 are Northeastern at Hofstra and George Mason at Drexel. If the road teams snag wins, then the top of the CAA becomes stronger and the liklihood of multiple bids higher. Read more »

[tip]I will be occasionally commenting on the games I’m watching over at my new Twitter page. Updates can be seen in the right side bar on JCB as well.[/tip] An interesting doubleheader in the Atlantic 10 marks the afternoon in college hoops on this first Saturday of February.  It’s going to be an interesting six weeks for the league. Expect them to be the center of a lot of bubble arguments. This is a league that hasnt had more than three bids and has been stuck with two invites in three of the last four years. This year? Record attendance, maybe. As of today, six A 10 teams are in the Bracket Matrix. Usual suspects Temple and Xavier are 4 and 7 seeds respetively. But four of their brethern–Rhode Island, Charlotte, Richmond and Dayton–have also settled into the Matrix trending out somewhere in double digit seed territory. Expect a lot of scrutiny for these teams as I dont think we can say any of them are close to a good bet to make the field. The next six weeks could be boom or bust for the league. Today we get some critical evidence that may tell us which direction this is going.

Xavier at Dayton, noon, ESPN2. Lines, DU -3, O/u 135

The tables have really turned between these Ohio rivals since they played three weeks ago.  Back on those days of yore, Dayton was riding high, winners of  11 and 12, seemingly cruising towards the postseason. Xavier had unexpectedly experienced turblence during November and December, but had at least finally put back to back wins together. Xavier beat Dayton that day and off have charged to an 8-1 A10 start. It’s not like the Flyers have struggled, but they have lost two of their last four games following the loss to the Musketeers.  And that’s been enough to bump them from a January comfort zone to a shaky February perch. The Flyers are a mere 12-seed in the Matrix, basically the last team in the consensus field. They’re receiving 35 of 55 possible votes. If they lose this, they fall to .500 in conference play. They probably cant afford too many more regular season losses and expect an at-large bid. Xavier is secure, barring collapse. They need a win to keep their lead dog status is an amazing chase for the league title with five teams between 8-1 and 6-2.

Temple at Richmond, 2:00, ESPN2. Richmond -1, O/U 114

The same stakes kind of exist in this one. Conference title contender with a safe grip on a bid into the field on the road against a Bubble team, clinging to the field. Temple sit as a 4-seed. They’re the only league team to beat Xavier in league play and the only team anywhere to have beaten Villanova. The Richmond Spiders are sharing the 12-line with A10 mate Dayton, but have four more votes than the Flyers with 39 total. They are trying to make the dance for the first time since John Beilein was their coach and the Colonial Athletic Association was their conference. They have excellent OOC wins over Old Dominion and at Mississippi State and Florida. And, at 6-2 in league play, havent really bogged down since. How far will the A10 bubble be able to stretch? The Spiders still have road games against URI, Dayton and Xavier. A loss today might set them up for as many a four lossess in the next five weeks. I dont think that bubble will reach that far. Read more »

One of the Games Of The Year in the Big 10 takes place tonight. But its not the game you think.

Oh, sure, tonight’s Michigan State at Wisconsin game feels like a heavyweight fight. But, for our purposes here of tracking the state of the Bubble, there arent going to be many more games as important in the conference as the game in Evanston tonight between Michigan and Northwestern.

How in the world is a Northwestern  home game against an 11-10 team one of the season’s critical juncture points? It’s the confluence of the Wildcats urgency to earn their historic tournament bid, a soft bubble, a cratering Big 10 Bubble and the fact that Michigan represents one of their tougher challenges the rest of the way. At 3-6 in the Big 10, the Cats need to win twice as many games as they lose the rest of the way to probably be under legit consideration. That might seem like a tall order. But KenPom actually projects just such a finish, with Northwestern getting to the clubhouse at 9-9 in league play, 21-10 overall. Hard to see them left out of the field with those numbers. By giving the Wildcats a 62-percent chance at winning tonight, KenPom makes Michigan their fourth toughest hurdle over their final ten overall games.

This a major swing game for them. They will be favored by Vegas in a lot of those games down the stretch as well, so a big run to get their league record resume worthy is not out of the question. That run becomes harder, if not impossible, without a win tonight. Some feel the Cats need to go 4-0 in their next four to get back into contention. If Northwestern wins, they stop a two game slide, can start gobbling up wins en route to a 20-win campaign and work their way up the Bubble ladder. They have quite a ways to go. With 48 precincts reporting to the Bracket Matrix, and all but a small handful having updated since the weekend, only 5 mock bracketologists put Northwestern in their fields. That not only puts them out of the Final 8 cut from the Matrix but with less votes than Arizona and UTEP. If they lose tonight, you can do the math. They wont be anywhere close to anyone’s bracket. They only have one game left–at Wisconsin–that they could win and radically change a lot of people’s mind on just what postseason bracket Northwestern deserves. Every game from here on out is a must win for Northwestern’s hopes, but there are a few they could afford to lose. This is not one of them. This would be a bad loss.

 But not many bad loss candidates come in with the Experts in the Desert calling it a coin flip. Despite the disparate records, placement on the bubble and the home court edge, oddsmakers have made Northwestern just a 2-point favorite tonight. That’s a testament to the fact that plenty of folks within in the betting public give Michigan as much of a chance at winning this game than the hometown Cats.

Where does the perception come from? One word: Defense. Michigan has some. Northwestern doesnt. The Wolverines have evolved into one of the best stop units out there. They’re 35th in the nation in points allowed and 10th in three-point percentage defense. They also remain one of the top teams in the country at turnover margin. For all the Wolverines’ flaws, they do a few things well, notably pushing you into taking treys from beyond your comfort zone and forcing sloppy play. On a points per possession allowed standpoint, Michigan is right up in league play with conference stalwarts MSU and Wisconsin. Their points per possession margin from offense to defense also puts them in the top half of the conference. If only their win/loss record did the same, then maybe Michigan would have some stack on the table tonight as well.  As for Northwestern, they couldnt guard a crosswalk. The Wildcats have the most porous defense in the league. They might not allow a ton of points, per se, but they are the worst in the league at points allowed per possession. Michigan would be wise to push up the tempo at times. I think their defense can handle the extra possessions. I dont think Northwestern’s can. If Michigan can limit its own turnovers against a 1-3-1 zone defense that they are obviously more than familiar with, then they will control this contest.

The teams find themselves in opposite positions from a year ago. in 2009, Michigan snapped a NCAA drought, but would not have done so had they not been the only team  in the Big 10 to sweep Northwestern last season. A year later, its Northwestern that needs the wins to put an end to their own March Madness drought. But, they probably will fall a win or two short if they dont beat Michigan tonight for a season sweep of the Wolverines. Read more »

I’ve had a heartbreaking month of college hoops. I havent buckled down into religiously watching the whole nation, but I have watched, with anticipation and hope, every single minute of Indiana and Michigan basketball since their league seasons began, coincidentally, and perhaps in foreshadowed-bad-karma fashion, against each other on New Year’s Eve. They are my two favorite teams, close to my heart, after all.  Neverminding any backstory  required to explain how that bizarre dual fanship has formed over the years, rest assured this month has totally wrenched my gut and punched my dong. Both clubs have had tremendous moments, but they’ve been meted out by a bounty of near misses and snatching defeat from the arms of victory outcomes.

It hasnt been all bad. The Wolverines and Hoosiers are a combined 15-5 ATS since league play started. And, if you haven’t figured it out yet, I not only like to gamble on sports, but encourage betting on your teams games. So, there’s been some Maize and Blue and Cream and Crimson profit to start 2010. I didnt have either in their Saturday covers yesterday, but i went to the window nine times in favor of one of these teams during the last month and not once did it net a losing ticket. (FYI: Just about each pick was touted at the JCB, so dont miss whatever February bandwagons we Book)

Ok, so I cant bitch one bit. But it did prove revealing that I still have a true heart and that sports losses remain impactful on me in a heartfelt, idealistic fan level. I have been downright mopey in the aftermath of my teams going 3-6 straight up in “close games.” While they mastered the art of losing, but covering, with each time my spirits dimmed, drowning out the cash register rings. I could not go a  stretch a a few days without one of them team bringing me to the brink of celebration only to drop me and my fan brethern on our collective heads.

Indiana chokes away a 13-point halftime lead at home and losses to Illinois. Hours later I watch the Wolverines copy that in a loss at Crisler to Northwestern, a result I still havent been able to explain. Saturday, the Wolverines are nuetered by the sudden Manny Harris suspension. Sunday, the Hoosiers get blown out at home to Iowa, a loss that caused a lot of soul searching from folks regarding the reality of the rebuilding project. The Kailon Lucas show and DeSeans lip out proved an effective 1-2 punch that knocked me out of the college hoops world for a few days earlier this week. Just when I thought it was safe to step back in the ring, Indiana losses at the buzzer to Illinois yesterday after playing brilliant for 40 minutes. It was the most exciting and nerve racking three minutes of the Tom Crean era, but a stomach punch loss nevertheless.

The result? A February with a lot less stakes on the line where the teams postseasons hopes are concerned. A little more luck and IU could all but have an NIT bid in their grasp. That equals a  huge step forward after a 6-win, 1-17 Big 10 campaign a year ago. We’d be having daily posts at the JCB reminding everyone just how smart we were by predicting an IU 5-4 home record or better in Big 10 play. Instead, the Hoosiers are 2-2 in those games with a lot of hard ones ahead and a better than .500 record needed the rest of the way  just to finish .500 overall. The season will close out just like the second year of Michigan’s football rebuilding job did this past fall. Progress totally obscured and, in some minds, totally wiped out by a string of losses piling up to end the year. Read more »