Bubble News

With one week to go in the regular season, some things are beginning to crystallize in the world of Big East basketball. Syracuse has clinched no worse than a share of the regular season title. They will be the top seed in next week’s Big East Tournament. Barring a collapse, they will also be one of the four #1 seeds in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. Villanova needs to win out, including the Big East Finals, to make a legit claim for one of the other NCAA top seeds. The Cats are one game ahead with two to play for the BE Tournament’s #2 seed. West Virginia and Pitt are tied for third and fourth and look good in the chase for the all-important double byes during the Big East Tournament. Louisville and Marquette are both a game behind in that pursuit, so there’s still some drama in that department.

So the top of the Big East standings look about as locked in place as you can get headed into the final week of regular season. The same can not be said for the rest of standings, particularily the middle portion where the Big East bubble teams all reside. I think it’s safe to say the league will qualify seven teams into the NCAA field. I think they’re a good bet to get eight teams into the field before its all said and done. Some bracketologists have pegged nine teams from the Big East in their field.  The four teams currently at the top, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia and Pitt, along with Georgetown have their bids assured. But, whoever gets the other 2-3 bids, depending on where the eventual cutline is, remains murky with as many as seven teams feeling they can still make a legit claim if they close the season strong. All will eventually be seeded anywhere between 5-12 in the Big East Tournanment, so we wont get any true closure until at least next week. The second day of that sectional, when teams in that range are supposed to play each other could be the most important day of the made-for-TV ESPN Fest that is Championship Week. Let’s first take a look at the final regular season week and what may be determined in advance of the conference tournament.

MONDAY

Georgetown at West Virginia, 7:00, ESPN…….the last Big Monday game of the season is one with just Big East Tournament and seeding on the line. The ‘Neers can nab a #2 in both brackets with a strong finish. The Hoyas will likely be seeded much better in the NCAA Tournament than they will be in next week’s local field. They could be a #2 in the NCAAs if they win out and claim the conference tournament title. But, in that field, they might not even be higher than a 5- or 6-seed. Should be a fun game and the last call of the season for the McDonough-Bilas-Rafferty team, whom I enjoy listening to.

TUESDAY Read more »

March Madness for UConn arrives during the final week of February. But, at least they have home court advantage. The Huskies will be fighting for their tournament lives from here on out and this week they have a chance to pick up a pair of critical resume wins at home over Big East brand names. Tonight they host 8th-ranked West Virginia in Hartford in front of the ESPN Big Monday audience. Saturday afternoon they host Louisville. The Huskiers have pulled themselves off the mat with back-to-back wins, including as an impressive a resume win as anyone else will have with a road win at Villanova. But, UConn had lost 8 of 11 prior heading in, so all it did was put the bubble back on its radar.  Where do the Huskies stand? Are they in or out? With a home sweep this week, they would vault past a lot of bubble and be at the front and center of the field’s front gate going into the final week of the regular season. But, getting those wins are big if, beginning with tonight’s game against the Mountaineers.

As it stands in the Bracket Matrix as of Monday morning, the Huskies are on the outside looking into the field. They’re sixth-from-last out of the field and have votes from just 8 mock bracketologists. Obviously, their support would surge should they notch a win this evening. If KenPom is any indication, this will be a tight couple of weeks for the Huskies. His numbers call for a loss tonight as UConn has less than a 40-percent chance of winning. As for their three remaining games, he gives them anywhere from a 48- to 60-percent chance of winning. UConn closes the regular season on the road at Notre Dam and at USF. They need to go 3-1 in those games to finish with a .500 makr in Big East play, If they do that, they may have played themselves into the field as long as they notch at least one win in the Big East Tournament.  Tonight’s task will be tougher as West Virginia looks to continue its strong start to its stretch drive.  Can the Huskies height thwart one of the better offenses in the country? It’s the 17th ranked shooting percentage defense in UConn going up against the 58th scoring offense in the country in West Virginia. Both teams are among the best in the country at crashing the offensive boards, but the Huskies struggle sometimes holding opponents to just one and done. They’ll have to close out on the defensive glass if they want to contain West Virginia tonight.

As for the remainder of the Big East Bubble, the picture is beginning to clear up, but a lot of that portrait could really begin to dry up tonight. Either UConn takes a major leap and becomes the bubble lead dog with a win. Or, they strike out on a critical chance for a home resume win and slip farther behind the pack they’re chasing now. Cincinnati and Seton Hall sit with the Huskies among the final eight teams left out of the Matrix consensus. Should any of these catch fire and jump into the Matrix, the most likely teams to get kicked out of the field would be UAB, as the second CUSA in the Matrix, Charlotte or Ole Miss. Both of those last two teams are coming off home losses in swing games over the weekend. There is always the chance that  fellow league members knock each other out as the shakedowns on the Big East Bubble continue through the end.  Marquette and Louisville are both in the Matrix, but are no better than a double digit seed, so their respective spots in the actual field are far from secure. And, both teams really seem to be peaking, so to get in the field by swapping spots with them seems a challenging road map. A quick look at the other teams on the Big East Bubble:

Is Louisville in the field if they close with a four game losing streak? What kind of odds would you give me that they will close on a 4-game slide? Here’s the run: Georgetown, at Uconn, at Marquette, Syracuse. I wouldnt make those odds all that steep. Per KenPom, tomorrow night’s game with Georgetown is a big swing game in that regard. His computer formulas give the Cards a 60-percent chance to win that game, but less than 43-percent chance to win any of their other three. Louisville is currently a 10-seed in the Matrix and a unanimous selection. The Cards rejuuvenated their bid chances with a road win in the Dome against the Cuse eight days ago. In 12 days, they might need to repeat that trick, albeit at home, to keep their spot. So, let’s say you think they’re in the field even if they lose out the regular season. Ok, then what if they drop a first round Big East Tournament game. The Cards look good now. Their magic numbers is small. But, they have one of hardest closing schedules of anyone in the country.

Marquette is the only other Big East bubble team that currently sits on the correct side of the bracket. It’s going to be tough to keep Marquette from the field unless they vomit up some bad losses over the final fortnight of the regular season.  They are currently an 11-seed in the Matrix and all but three mock bracketologists. Of course, you can never put a road win in this league in the bank. The Eagles play at St. John’s and Seton Hall this week. As long as they can get one of those roadies, they can all but cement themselves in the bracket by sweeping home wins next against Louisville and Notre Dame. That Louisville/Marquette contest next Tuesday looms large is neither team is able to go 2-0 this week. Read more »

The annual bracket buster weekend is upon us which means that March is just around the corner. We get a chance to grade dozens of possible plucky upstarts in hopes of discovering the perfect future #11 or #12 NCAA Tournament seed destined to make bracket waves next month. Most years, the bracket buster weekend is just a celebration of mid-major hoopdom with very little truly on the line. Let’s face it, for the most part these teams wont be getting at large bids by virtue of their bracket buster win.

This year I thought it might be a little different with so many mid-majors having stellar seasons. I thought the weekend was going to be the Colonial Athletic Conference. To me, how their teams fare this weekend will be the biggest storyline.  When I am wisting hyperbole, I’ve mentioned that as many as six CAA teams could win NCAA tournament games. To be more practical, that number might really only be four. But, still, for a league that is not guaranteed a second bid into the dance, anything the CAA can do to put its teams in the most positive light is important to try to secure anything more than the automatic qualifier that comes with winning the league tournament. That brings us to this weekend. With five showcase games somewhere on the ESPN dial, the league has a chance to really impress and with an excellent showing really build momentum for 2, maybe even 3, bids into the field.

Well, the weekend already has its biggest loser. And, its the CAA. See, the event began last night and two of the league’s more viable teams were shellacked, albeit on the road, by fellow mid-majors. Considering one of those clubs was the league leader and the other had the most impressive OOC wins, it was a rotten night for the CAA and they may have cornereed themselves back into one bid only territory.

Northern Iowa broke Old Dominion alst night in Cedar Falls. The Panthers elite defense did a number on the Monarchs as ODU had no offense the first half. The second half provided more scoring for both teams, but ODU never really threatened the lead and NIU cruised to a 9-point win. This game was between the leaders in the CAA and Missouri Valley Conference, so it was a marquee game of this event. For NIU, its the best OOC win they have and might be enough to bank a tournament bid this runaway winner of the MVC crown fall in the MVC Tournament.  It was a killer loss for the Monarchs. To be sure, their resume looks nice. If they rebound and hold on to the CAA regular season crown, they still have wins at Georgetown and Charlotte to their credit as part of an ambitious non-league slate that also included single digit losses away from home against Missouri, Mississippi, Dayton and Richmond. They played a much tougher They are an 11-seed  the current Bracket Matrix, by virtue of their first place standing. But, they lost a key chance to really lock in for at large position regardless of what happens the rest of the way. Meanwhile, dont sleep on NIU. The Matrix has them as 7-seed and they are now 17-9 ATS. While last night’s Over hit, it’s also worth pointing the Under is 17-6 on posted total. Maybe NIU and the Under will be a March money train.

Meanwhile, another strong CAA team went down in flames last night when Iona, of the MAAC, thumped William/Mary 69-53. The game was never really close. With a histoty of being a league punching bag and after a 10-win campaign last season, the Tribe are league contenders. At 2 games back of ODU and Northeastern, W/M probably wont with the league title, which is sometimes a necessary chip for a mid major to snag an at large bid. But, the Tribe offers a compelling resume with road wins at Wake Forest and at Maryland. But, I dont think those games will stand out with a 16-point beatdown to a MAAC team not named Siena this close to Selection Sunday. I thought the Tribe provided an interesting mid-major argument if they won out in the regular season, but last night’s loss muted the argument to say the least.

It also crushed the CAA. I had dreamed of them getting a sweep in the five key games league teams played on TV this weekend. Instead, they are 0-2 with two of their more intriguing tourney prospects showing just how not ready to wear they really are. I dont know if the league can make up any ground today. They could win all three of their spotlight games, but none of today’s teams play anybody as impressive as NIU, nor do they have the OOC chips the Tribe have. It’ll be a good showcase, but I remain firm in the belief that the biggest loser of Bracket Buster weekend, the CAA, has already been determined.  Anyway, a quick look at the highlighted buster games today, including the games involving the other three CAA teams, Northeastern, VCU and George Mason. Read more »

During my Olympic sojourn, I really have not been following  college hoops as much as I should. Let’s get updated with what’s going on with the Bracket Matrix  and the bubble games of the day as we close to within three weeks of Selection Sunday.

Atlantic 10 Six Pack Camped Out In Field

Six a10 teams remain perched on a bracket line. I’m beginning to wonder if the Matrix will be able shake off any of them in favor of somebody else. None are worse than a 10-seed, so by the metric brand name schools like Louisville, Oklahoma State and Florida hold more tenous spots in the mock field. Four teams are basically unanimous selections, so the two most likely to be kicked aside are Dayon and Charlotte. Conveniently, Charlotte hosts Xavier today(2:00, X -4) in a must-get resume win if the 49ers want to stand with any legitimacy. The Flyers play tomorrow at Duquense where they cant afford the proverbial bad loss. The other four A10 teams in the Matrix, Temple, Xavier, Richmod, Rhode Island, all look to be locked in, barring total disasters down the stretch.

Yeah, But Look At Out Shiny New Recruiting Classes

The Bracket Buster stage has nothing on Florida/Ole Miss (noon, CBS, Miss -4.5). The loser could well see their  mock bracket invite busted, so this game carries more import than any of the made-for-TV games in mid-majordom. The host Rebels are a consensus 11-seed with 44 of 59 votes, while the Gators are a 12-seed in 33 brackets. A lot of mocks will struggle mightily trying to justify the continued inclusion of the loser today. The SEC is improved over last year, but they still might not end of with more than three bids into the field. If Ole Miss cant keep its spot in the field and Mississippi State, sitting third from out with 15 votes,  cant do enough to get back in, then who is making it from the SEC West? I dont think anybody at this point, unless Arkansas, who leads the division, but is just 14-12 overall,  does something silly like win out the regular season. In the East, Kentucky, Tennessee and Vanderbilt look good, but, as stated, the Gators are in trouble. Especially if they cant somehow crack a win today, despite being 5-point underdogs. They have each of the East big dogs left to go, along with a road trip to sneaky Georgia. Honestly, I think the chances are stronger they go 0-5 or 1-4 to close out as it they go 3-2. That’s not good as the Gators might be staring at a third straight NIT berth since their consecutive national championships. South Carolina has some of the goods to make a run and might open eyes with a home win over Tennessee today (1:30, ESPN Full COurt, Tenn -2). But, like the Gators situation, the Gamecocks closing slate might be too tough for them to roll off the winning streak they need to put themselves in good at large position before the SEC Tournament. Dont let the bubble jostling distract you from the marquee event in the league today when Kentucky goes to Vanderbilt (6:00, ESPN, Vandy -1). Can the ‘Dorres quircky home court advantage and, at times, explosive offense take down the Cats? In Rupp a few weeks ago, this was a massive beatdown, but, in Nashville, Vandy is a borderline Final Four team.

Must-Win Resume Games For Big 12 Bubble Teams

A pair of swing games for the bubble takes place in Big 12 country this afternoon. Oklahoma State hosts Baylor (1:30, ESPN Full Court, OAU -2). The Cowboys need to bank a win. The good news today is that the Pokes are a consensus 10-seed with 55 of 59 mocks voting for them. But the bad news is the rest of their schedule, especially their next three games: at Texas, Kansas and at Texas A/M. They wont be be favored to win any of those games. KenPom doesnt give them a better than 27-percent chance in any of them. They host Nebraska to close the year and will finish .500 in league play if their remaining wins are just today and that closer. If they lose to Baylor this afternoon, you tell me how they make the field if they cant notch a couple of significant upsets over the next two weeks? Read more »