Bubble News

Bubble News: Who Wins After Saturday's Carnage? (With Pick$)

March 7, 2010
By

We’ve reached the final day of the college basketball regular season. It comes a day after one of the biggest blood lettings on the bubble all season. Oh sure, Louisville closed the house in style by routing Syracuse in the second half securing a bid. How do you think Kyle Kuric’s night around on town was yesterday?  And Notre Dame made the upcoming Big East Tournament even more anticlimatic by putting a checkmate on their invite with a road win at Marquette.And, they got Luke Harangody back as their dance card looks to be filled.  Otherwise, it was a day of fail for the teams on the fringes, just in and just out of the fielsd per the mock bracketologist crowd. Of the final 10 at-large bids in the Bracket Matrix, seven played yesterday. Four lost. Of the Final Four Out group, with had another three losses.

Hard to believe that for the second year in a row, the Rhode Island Rams quest for a bid was dealt a curshing blow by dropping a heartbreaker to a bad UMass team in the season finale. But, it’s a bad deja-vu all over again for Jimmy Barron’s club. It’s been a nice blast from the past to see a Mike Davis club fatler down the stretch and drop another late season game with a bid on the line. Losing a double digit half time lead because you cant score coming out of the lockerroom? Man, that takes me back. Sweet memories. All I need now is a text from Kelvin sometime today and the reunion will be complete.Mississippi State had a 0-2 every bit as bad as UAB’s capped off yesterday by a non-competitive home loss to Tennessee.  Dayton got smoked at home by St. Louis. And then there’s the curios case of the Georgia Tech Yellowjackets. They outclassed on their home floor by Virginia Tech, leaving them 7-9 in ACC play. I’m telling you, they will not make the Field of 65 if they dont get another win. The are down to their final chance. That makes their 7/10 vs UNC Thursday night one if the biggest games of conference tournaments this week.

Who benefits the most from yesterday’s results? How about the group in the Second Four Out in the Matrix. Those teams went 4-0 as Memhpis, Wichita State, Arizona State and Washington all won. Suddenly, the Pac 10 is sitting pretty for perhaps still three bids after a season-long talk of just one bid. One CUSA replaces another in the quest for that league to get its first ever at-large bid since the Big East defections. And a fourth bid from the MWC going to SDSU and an eighth bid for the Big East going to USF all seem much stronger possibiliites now than they did 24 hours ago.

The other winners were the teams among the final 10 at-larges in the Matrix that play games today. Can they really drop all that far with so many other teams losing. Suddenly, there’s a lot of cushion beneath them. Conceivably, they’ll just be running in place, even if the lose, not really an undesirable outcome when you’re considered in the field with just a week before Selection Sunday.

I didnt think Florida was going to fall to far any way should they lose at Rupp Arena to UK this afternoon. I mean its one of the hardest wins out there. The Gators could win by just pushing the Cats into the final minutes.  The pitchfork crowd has had enough of the same old crap they saw against Vanderbilt in the home finale earlier in the week. The Gators fell into an early hole and after spending the whole game climbing out of it didnt have any energy left as they basically went scoreless over the game’s final minutes. But, the angst is overblown. I dont think the Gators are in jeopardy of missing the NCAAs for a third straight year. As mentioned above, there’s plenty of cusion for Florida to absord a loss today and still remain in decent shape as far as the pecking order for the bids goes. They need one more win, and they’re staring at a matchup with Alabama or Auburn in the SEC First Round on Thursday. Had the bubble’s record been the reverse of its 4-7 record yesterday, teams would be surging by the Gators. Instead they’re falling around them. They’re going to be hard to keep out of the field as long as they get one more win. But good luck winning on Senior Day at Rupp. Read more »

Bubble News: First Saturday In March Edition

March 6, 2010
By

We have arrived at the first Saturday in March. The regular season is winding down in the bigger leagues and the most of the mid-majors are knee deep in the conference tournaments. Teams are running out of time to spruce up their resume and impress the selection committee. We’re in the year of a soft bubble when upwards of a half dozen A10. four MWC and three CUSA teams are all under at-large consideration. How soft is the bubble this season? So much so that Minnesota is actually receiving some votes despite being 1-3 against Michigan and Indiana.  There are no obvious candidates on the wrong side of the bubble that we can expect to crash into the field. But, I dont think any of the final 10 at-large bids in the current Bracket Matrix are locks. None can afford to not win another game and more than half of them will be underdogs in their final regular season game this weekend. Translation: Expect another major bubble shuffle over the next day two days. Here’s a sketch of Saturday’s action that will have the most impact on the bubble

Cincinnatti at Georgetown, noon ESPN 360. Lines, GTown -7

I am not even sure why I list this as a bubble game. With a 16-13 record, the Bearcats really aren’t going anywhere. They’ve lost consecutive games and six of their last nine. For the third year in a row, a feisty Cincy squad is being chewed up and spit out into the NIT field  by the rugged the Big East schedule. Per the Matrix, one lone bracketologist tabs the Bearcats. But, really, no mocks have them in the field. The matrix doesnt reflect yet that mock’s latest update which has thumbed Cncy all the way to the fifth-from-out of the field. The Bearcats have a strong enough set of wins and schedule strength where if today begins a four game winning streak that lands them eventually in the Big East semifinals, then they might be under consideration. That would give them wins at Georgetown and at MSG over St. John’s, Louisville and Pittsburgh in the BET, using today’s standings as a possible bracket. That would be a damn strong final push. Win a semifinal game and they probably would be a lock for the field.

Texas A/M at Oklahoma, noon ESPN. Lines, A/M -3.5

The Aggies are playing for seeding. They are, IMHE, a lock for the field. Even an 0-2 close to season wont damage them. Important Big 12 seeding is on the line as well. The Aggies could be as high as a 3-seed or as low as a 6-seed in next week’s Big 12 Tournament based on how the games go this weekend. Nationally, the Aggies are holding a spot on the 6th-seed line in the Matrix. Read more »

Bubble News: A Light Thursday Fare With A Side Of Picks

March 4, 2010
By

Charlotte, UConn, UAB and Mississippi State suffered killer losses last night, plunging their tournaments into disarray. Rhode Island and Notre Dame notched wins that might be the final propulsion needed to make the final field of 65.  All told, among the final 10 in the Bracket Matrix field and first 10 cut out of the consensus, half of them have lost during the course of the last two nights, setting us up for a crazy final weekend of the regular season. You know who else lost last night? Me, and my readers. Sorry for that 0-3 night, folks. Feel free to BOO me. It might make me handicap better. Who knows? Anyway onto tonight

It’s a light night of hoops and the biggest bubble game of the night takes place in the Atlantic 10 confernece when Dayton travels to Richmond. Last night, URI trucked Charlotte in the second half, a result that pretty much kills the 49ers chances at an at-large bid. Also, St. Louis lost a lead late and fell at home to Temple. The Billikens had been climbing the charts, but really couldnt afford any more setbacks if they wanted to be taken seriously as an at-large candidate. A few weeks ago, the A10 was bucking for a record high in bids. Now, you have to wonder if three bids wont be their limit. That could change if Dayton could snap out of its funk and get a critical road win against the Spiders tonight. It’s a consensus Bracket Matrix 7-seed Richmond playing the third-from-out Dayton. The Flyers have lost three of five, so while they’re not slumping, they are not playing all that great either. They were the preseason A10 favorites, but are getting chewed up during the league’s resurgent season this year. A loss tonight drops them to 8-7 in league play, and I dont care how much stronger this league is, nobody from the A10 is getting in the field with a confernece mark that close to .500. Meanwhile, Richmond appears to be locked in the field. They had won eight straight and 10 of 11 before Xavier nipped them at the buzzer over the weekend. I think they might want to grab one more win just to be sure. If they dont win any more games, they will close on a four-game losing streak. If I were a Spider booster, that would make me uncomfortable.

As for other bubble action tonight, we have three teams among the final nine out of the consensus Matrix field all playing winnable games this evening. Ole Miss will be trying to do what their Magnolia State rival could not last night, tuck away a win against one the SEC lesser teams. Ole Miss is fifth-from-out in today’s Matrix, pulling in votes from 8 mock bracketologists. They beat Kansas State and lost to Villanova and West Virginia in the three marque out of confernece games they played. But, they’re just 7-7 in the SEC and their most impressive league win is at home against South Carolina. I dont think they have the resume, but in a year with a weak bubble it still puts them right in the middle of contention. The Rebels get LSU at home tonight. A win does very little but keep them in range. A loss, well LSU has just one league win this year, so do your own math on how crippling it would be. I think they become DOA. No Sugarcoat.

Most folks dont think Seton Hall has much at-large case. The mocks are skeptical as just one person has them in their field. But, the Pirates cant be eliminated at this point. If they close out as strong road warriors and get tonight’s win at Rutgers and over the weekend at Providence, they could set themselves up for an at large bid with a strong Big East Tournament run. If tonight begins a five-game winning streak that ends with a loss in the Big East Title game, they’ll have 21 wins, with a dozen of those coming in the Big East. I think they still have a chance, even if its fleeting.

We’ve said all winter long that the bubble team’s best friend on the west coast is the USC Trojans. The probabtion shackled Trojans have been playing spoiler all year in the Pac 10 and they have one last chance tonight to torpedo the hopes of a league mate. Arizona State sits sixth-from-out with five mock votes. The bubble welcomed them back to the game last week, but the good times were short lived as the Cal Bears throttled them Saturday night. They need a home sweep of the LA schools to close the season and probably need to do no worse than play to their seed in the Pac 10 sectional and make the finals of the field. They’re in much better shape than Seton Hall, but like the Pirates, they need tonight to be the start of a nice winning streak taking them deep into the conference tournament to grab an at-large bid.

Otherwise, the best action of the night takes place in tiny Conway, South Carolina where the Big South semifinals are taking place. True elimination games in the chase for the Field of 65. And that’s where we find one of our picks for the night. Read more »

Bubble News: Pressure On Huskies, Irish, Hokies And Many More

March 3, 2010
By

We lost some teams last night in the chase to cut down the nets in Indianapolis. Good bye Charleston Southern, High Point, Liberty and Valparaiso. We barely knew you. The field of 347 has been whittled down to 313 and it’s only March 3rd. Admittedly, there were no major casaulities last night, but we did see the first upset of the Madness season when the sixth seed Tennessee Tech upended third seed Austin Peay in the Ohio Valley Sectional. Their own Cinderella run will play out next on ESPN U Friday night during the OVC semis against Morehead State. They’re just 15-16, but two wins away from the Field of 65.

We also lost the Minnesota Gophers last night. Ok, not technically. They’re still alive, but its safe to say they’re as close to elimination from an at-large as you can get after laying that egg last night. Getting swept by this year’s Michigan team, especially one a 23-point loss, bars you from at large contention. I’m pretty sure it’s written in the rules somewhere. Maybe in the back. Trust me, there’s no need to double check.

We’ve reached the final Wednesday of the regular season. A significant mile marker as after Saturday, Wednesday is always the busiest day of the college basketball week. Are there any big games tonight? You bet there are.

If a game in March between top-5 teams doesnt get your juices flowing, then you must be dead. When Kansas State travels to Kansas tonight, critical NCAA and Big 12 seeding will be on the line. It’s a game between two of the best teams in the country, bitter in-state rivals and a rematch of the 81-79 classic Jayhawk win back in January. There’s some talk that the Wildcats could still get a NCAA top seed if they go into Lawrence and win and follow that up with a great Big 12 Tournament.

If a game that will decide the ACC regular season does not interest you, then I wish nothing but curling, Clipper games and classic WNBA games on a continuing loop for your future sports viewing. When Duke travels to Maryland tonight, not only will one of the better rivalries the game has seen over the last dozen years play out, but first place in the ACC is on the line. Both will win the league if they win out. The Devils will get it all to themselves, while the Terps will probably have to at least share the title. But, a co-championship is better than nothing and considering a year ago at this time people were wondering if Gary Williams had lost his mojo, getting an ACC crown would be a huge achievement. Duke smoked the Terps three weeks, so there is some revenge in the air in College Park tonight as well. Read more »

Bubble News: Illinois, Florida In Or Out?

March 2, 2010
By

Two big time basketball programs find themselves on the bubble ropes during the final week of the regular season, but each has a resume game tonight where a win could all but seal their invite, while a loss might be enough of a push to cement themselves as NIT Bound.

I’m talking about Illinois out of the Big 10 and Florida from the SEC. Both are seeded on the 10 line in the current Bracket Matrix. Florida’s support seems more secure at this point with 73 of 74 mock bracketologists putting them in their field. The Illini, however, saw a lot of support waver in the wake of their home Bubble Brawl loss to Minnesota on Saturday. They received just 58 of a total 74 votes.  That’s less votes than all the other at large teams sharing the 10-line with them and only two at large berths, per Matrix consensus, have less votes than the Illini. Tonight offers a swing game for both programs as their eventual tournament fates begin to crystallize.

Illinois enters the final week of the regular season with their at large hopes in clear jeopardy. Should they roll into Columbus tonight and take down the Buckeyes, they’ll go from in jeopardy to near-lock status. Such is the fine line between being an NCAA or NIT team. A few weeks ago, Ohio State trounced Illinois in Champagne, so the Illini need a total 180 with performance and results to get it done on the road in tonight’s rematch.  That’s going to be tough comsidering the way the Bucks have been peaking the last six weeks. They began the Big 10 year 1-3, but a win tonight clinches at least a share of their third conference title in the last six years.

But, this is about bubble talk, so we’ll leave the Buckeye’s pursuit for a better NCAA seed alone. Let’s focus instead on the Illini’s resume. They’ve lost three of four to go from Big 10 title contender to bubble team.  The have some nice wins over Vanderbilt, at Clemson, Michigan State and at Wisconsin. But, they also have some sketchy losses to Utah, Bradley and Georgia. They’ve been swept by Purdue and lost to Gonzaga and Missouri. To a certain extent, the Illini should get credit for the ambitious schedule they’ve played, even if the results have been inconsistent. If they dont win another regular season game, they still will be 10-8 in the Big 10. I have a hard time believing that a team with a winning record in the Big 10 who also played a rugged non conference slate would get left out of the dance. But, with their support already on the wane, it’s just as hard to not believe that teams wont pass them if they put an 0-2 week on the board.

I think the Illini’s charge this week is simple to define. Get a win. It might not come tonight if Pomeroy’s numbers are to be taken literally as he gives Illinois just a 15-percent at beating the Buckeyes. That would load up a lot of pressure on the Illini in their finale at home Saturday against Wisconsin. If Illinois gets one of these games this week, I think they will make the field. If they dont, I just hope the proliferation of IlliniGoIdiots dont push Loren Tate into an early grave.

As for Florida, they might be in the same boat as the Illini. Just nab a win this week and things will probably work out for them. They have nice non league wins over Michigan State and Florida State that will resonate with the Selection Committee. They also have losses to Syracuse, Richmond, Xavier and South Alabama, but only the latter defeat could haunt them in the end. As for SEC play, they stand 9-5 as of today, but only a win over Tennessee stands out as an impressive league win.  The Gators have a chance to improve that resume this week. Tonight they play host to Vanderbilt. If they cant add to their resume tonight with a win, they face the daunting task of doing so in the closer on the road in Lexington against Kentucky. If the magic number is 10 SEC wins, then an 0-2 week could be a a fatal blow. Read more »