Bubble News

A quick look at two important bubble games tonight and my picks for tonight:

North Carolina vs Georgia Tech

Last Call for the defending champs. Perhaps as surprisingly, it might also be last call for one of the more talented group of players in the nation in the Georgia Tech Yellowjackets. Nobody has expected the Heels to be in the tournament for the last month or so. But, the Tech situation is a new development. They have slowly, but surely been playing themselves out of the fied.. They have fallen all the way down to an 11-seed and for the first time arent a unanimous selection with nine mocks excluding them from the field. They’ve lost six of nine and are 7-9 in the ACC. Bloggers have put the coach On Notice. I tend to think they will not get a bid if they get eliminated in this 7/10 game in the ACC Sectional on Thursday night. I dont think they need more than a win to re-establish their firm footing. But, Tech may have already won before even playing. Most everybody on either side of the bubble got a major result today with Memphis losing in the CUSA quarterfinals to Houston. The Jackets were ahead of the Tigers anyway, so that’s one less intruder who could steal their bid in case they do lose tonight. Tech might be in almost everybodys field, so its not a play in game. Consider it a hanging-on-by-a-thread-dont-fall-out-of-the-bracket game. Bubble teams everywhere are cheering for Carolina Blue to finally get it together and make one last stand tonight before giving up its title.

Florida vs Auburn

Is Florida’s magic number for a bid 1?Are they jsut a single win against anybody away from beaking their two-year hiatus from the NCAA Bracket?  If so, they’ve been stuck on that number for awhile. This SEC First Round Game against Auburn is their last chance to get that one. When you’re an 11-seed in the Matrix, you never want to go one-and-done in your league sectional, especially if your opponenet is an SEC West team with a 6-10 record. No Sugarcoat. This is a play-out game. The Gators are gone if they lose. Probably safe if they take care of business. Regardless people are asking what is Florida’s problem? Auburn, meanwhile, wasnt able to follow thier road map to the NIT and are left to play major spoiler and keep the Gators out of the tournament for a third straight year.

In the Big East Quarterfinals tonight, I dont consider the Pitt/ND game a bubble contest. The Irish are in. The bubble is not strong enough this year, or perhaps any year given the league’s construction, to keep out a 22-win Big East team with 11 total conference wins. In the nightcap, we have a classic Cincinnati-West Viriginia matchup. Huggy Bears plays the school who fired him on national TV in MSG in the Big East Tournament. How do not want to watch that? And, I suppose it too is a bit of a bubble game as I dont think the Bearcats only road map to the Field of 65 is through winning this sectional and grabbing the auto bid. They have a decent chance, especially if more bubble teams sag tomorrow like they did in the Conference USA today, if they make it to the finals. They would be a 20-win team with wins over Louisville, West Virginia and Notre Dame/Pitt winners in the immediate days before the selections. They have other impressive wins, so their argument would be stronger than you otherwise might think. Anyway onto my picks for tonight.

Pitt -2 (-120) over Notre Dame, 7:00, 1 Unit…..I am taking Pitt every time in a coin flip game in the Big East Tournament. Read more »

(Programming note: Friday Night Bubble News/Picks are posted……..Bubble News and Picks for the Friday afternoon games are posted!!)

Welcome to the Big 10 First Round, where only Iowa fans are probably happy. Well, happy might be too strong a word to describe how Hawk fans feel about their basketball program. How about deliriously sarcastic? I think that fits, but its probably a better mood than most fans of the the other five teams playing today are in. Maybe that’s because of the six teams relegated to playing in today’s opening round, I think Iowa is the one team that can be happy with their season in that expectations were actually exceeded. With a decimated roster and not much discernable talent, conventional wisdom back in the fall thought Iowa was going to crater to something akin to last year’s Indiana team that won just a lone league game. They could have gone winless in the Big 10, and I wouldnt have been shocked.  Instead, the Hawkeyes won four games in conference play and avoided the cellar. Ah the sweet scent of overachievement.

The true reason we label Iowa for being the one overachiever playing today is because how poorly the other teams performed against the expectations–fair or not–their bases had going into the season. Michigan, Minnesota and even Northwestern fans expected tournament berths when the season began. Instead all three had painfully uneven seasons. The Gophers season included all sorts of off court headaches. But, at least they remain standing as a possible at large candidate. They’re actually still getting a single vote from the mock bracketologist crowd that’s part of the Bracket Matrix. But the Gophers are hardly a win away from the field. They can jump back into the discussion with two, but probably wont make without three wins in this sectional unless there is some serious bubble carnage across the country over the next four days. That’s the penalty for going 1-3 against Michigan and Indiana in the Winter of 2010. Despite personnel losses from the 2009 NIT Championship squad, Penn State fans have to be disappointed in their last place finish, 0-10 start in Big 10 play and squandering the singular talent of Talor Battle.

Then there’s Indiana. The folks in Hoosier Country always have outsized expectations for their cagers. Nobody was really thinking tournament berth, but I do think there was a strong sentiment, a borderline expectation perhaps, that the team could play .500 ball and make a case for some postseason action. This Hoosier alum had unique expectations. I have been crowing basically since the end of last season that Indiana would have a winning record at home in Big 10 play. I chirped louder about it after their win over Pitt in December. Wins over Michigan and Minnesota and an OT loss to Illinois in the first three conference starts at Assembly Hall turned my volume up even another notch. Then, it all went to pieces. The team just seemed to wear out. They were always good for 30-35 minutes of play where you thought they looked like the good old Hoosiers. But the 5-10 minutes they were off, they would be way off. It cost them games against teams George Mason, Boston, Loyola Maryland, Illinois and Purdue. But the end of February those splits between good and bad were pretty much at 20/20 of clock time.

The result was an 11-game losing streak that included a pair of loses to Iowa and nine defeats of at least 14 points.  It wasa stretch  every bit as ugly as last year. My bold prediction of a 5-4 home mark fell two games short, but it was apparent the whole back half of the conference season how off my prognostication was. It really ranked right up there with my pick in the 2009 Rose Bowl, Barbaro in the Preakness and Wake Forest to make last year’s Final Four. Indiana did close the season with an exciting overtime win over Northwestern in front of the home folks. I still think the seeds of the next good to great Indiana team have been planted. I think they can play .500 ball next year. And, yes, that does include five Big 10 wins at home. I love the direction this rebuilding prject is going, but I feel, like a lot of Hoosier fans, a comingling of sadness and helpless frustration as we watch the kids work so hard for so little pay off. If Indiana could find a way to break their three-game losing streak in the Big 10 Tournament, I might just rush the court out of sheer happiness for a postseason win of any variety.

So we have five fanbases beat up by teams who didnt perform to expectations and/or had ridiculously long losing streaks sapping the energy of  its followers. And we have a sixth in Iowa who found a way to exceed expectations despite four Big 10 wins. Catch the excitement of the Big 10 First Round, People!! Read more »

When Notre Dame and Seton Hall matchup this evening in the second night of the Big East Tournament, will it be a winner-take-all-game as far as a bid is concerned? Some have weighed in and said the winner should get a bid. I think the Irish are in, but I’m not anywhere near the selection committee. Nor do I think I cant be talked out of calling them a lock right now for the field.  This is a Bracket Matrix 10-seed with 75 of 77 votes Irish squad against the fifth-from-out Seton Hall team with just 11 votes. The Hall survived a late rally from Providence in a game last night that outscored six of the eight NBA games last night and kept the NCAA hopes alive. The Irish could still have plenty of cushion if they lose. It would a anxious long weekend leading up the selections, becoming even more so with each bubble team surge the rest of the way. A loss would not be an ideal final impression. What is clear is the Hall are out with a loss. And while the Irish are certainly in with a win, Seton Hall cant say that for sure. So, yeah, what was the question again? Oh yeah, is this a winner take all? Nobody really knows. I know I wouldnt want to be the loser over the next few days, while if I was the winner I’d be thinking of bracket locations.

In the final Big East game of the day, Cincinnati plays Louisville. This is a bit of a rivalry game. I’m sure there is a contigent of UL fans who would have preferred seeing the Bearcats in town for the Freedom Hall closer. But you know what? Thumping top-ranked Syracuse worked out pretty nice, didnt it? The Bearcats need to win as many games as possible and hope that if they get a few more impressive scalps in this section, maybe the selection comittee will give them a look. The Cards are looking good, have played a murderous Big East slate down the stretch and appear to be playing their best ball of the season. Look out for possible lineup changes tonight for the Cards, however.

Picks? Picks!

Here’s a thought, maybe when you’re 0-3 during the Big East Tournament, maybe you should find some investments elsewhere. Pfft.

Notre Dame -1 over Seton Hall….the Pirates needed everything they had in their bag, including eleventy billion trey from Hazell and Luke Harangody going down with an early injury to squeak by the Irish a few weeks back. Tonight, Harangody plays the whole game, Hazell doesnt hit everything he throws up and the Irish return the favor. Book It. Read more »

 I’m going to change things up a bit here at the JCB with the Bubble News posts. We’re running out of bubble games, but the next three days have enough of them that instead of doing one big splashy post about them all, I’m just going to a series of smaller posts taking a look at the individual games. At least that’s the plan for today and tomorrow. Friday promises to be a heavy day of action, so I might go back to the old routine by then. But, I dont have time to complete a full Bubble News post today and with one of the biggest games left on the bubble board tipping off at noon, I present you with the first ever one-game Bubble News post since I started doing this. I’ve put a couple picks at the end in hopes of smoothing over any disappointment out there among my dozens of readers.

SOUTH FLORIDA vs GEORGETOWN, NOON, ESPN. Lines, GTown -7, O/U 133.5

Is this a play-in game for USF?  BaselineStats admits as much in his Big East Tournament preview, even though they sit sixth-from-last cut in his latest bracket projection. I dont know if one more win gives them enough juice to make that leap. Of course, the Bulls dont necessarily have to make that kind of perception leap across the board. They’re in 17 mock brackets right now. They’re basically on the cutline when play begins today. Several mocks already have as many as 10 Big East teams in the field, so there’s plenty of room on the correct side of the bubble for the Bulls if they can collect another resume win.

It’s March and, yes,  we’re really talking about USF Bull Basketball.  A win over the Hoyas, combined with some losses from the teams perceived ahead of them, might be enough to slip into the final field. They’re listed as third-from-last out in the consensus Bracket Matrix. At worst, a win over Georgetown will put USF in the middle of the team photo of squads being debated for the final 2-3 at-large bids. With 11 total Big East wins, they’d make a strong case. Their effort over Depaul might not have been aesethically pleasing–the Bulls didnt make a single trey–but it was enough to induce haiku poetry from the loyalists. They need to harass Greg Monroe and have Dominque Jones go off like the last time these teams played, an eight-point road win by the Bulls. Don’t forget, this was the game Jones grandstanded a bit at the end. We’ll see if the Hoyas have any revenge cooked up.

I find the USF story rather remarkable. They have only won 13 total Big East games since they joined the league, never more than four in a single season. This year, they already have a total of 10. They’d never won back to back games in Big East until this season. And, they had never won a Big East Tournament game before winning over Depaul yesterday. This is truly a college basketball interloper trying to crash the dance. They’re coached by Stan Heath, who you may recall led Kent State to consecutive tournaments in 2001 and 02, advancing at least a round each year. His 2002 squad made it all the way to the Regional Finals before bowing out to Indiana. He quickly took the Arkansas job, had limited success and was forced to change jobs. Read more »

An amazing season in the Big East concludes this week at Madison Square Garden with the league sectional. The action begins today as seeds 9 through 16 knock heads for the right to play second round games against the 5 through 8 seeds. Amazingly, no less than 12 teams remain in contention for at large bids. Louisville and Notre Dame took some of the at-large dramatics out of this sectoinal by picking up huge wins over the weekend that seemingly wrapped up bids.  The Cards have risen all the way to the 8-line in the Bracket Matrix, while the Irish, a tournament after thought in late February, is a 10-seed, garning 73 of 77 mock votes. Louisville is a lock. The Irish are close. I think they’re in the Field of 65, but if they go one-and-done in this sectional, it’s going to be an anxious long weekend awaiting the Selection Committee’s verdict. Other Big East teams in the Matrix as of this morning include Syracuse, a unanimous #1 seed within the mock community, West Virginia and Villanova as #2 seeds, Pittsburgh a #3, Georgetown a #5; and Marquette a #9 seed. This is the last chance for these teams to improve their ultimate seeding and draw for the real tournament beginning next week.

Other bid prospects in the Big East, and throughout the country for that matter, saw the bubble squeeze even tighter last night with St. Mary’s trucking Gonzaga to earn an automatic bid into the field and guaranteeing the West Coast Conference a second bid. So, there’s one less bid on the table. That’s not good news for the four Big East teams today still in contention for an at large bid. The bar they need to clear this week to impress the final jurists has been raised. None of the teams looking to make it 9 or 10 bids for the Big East are one win away from the field, but with a tighter bubble none of them might even be two wins away from the field. One thing we do know: Their respective chases for Indianapolis will come to an anonymous end if they cant get out of the first round today in the Big East Tournament. A quick look at today’s four games.

SOUTH FLORIDA VS DEPAUL, NOON, ESPN. LINES, USF-7, O/U 126

The South Florida Bulls are the 9th seed in this sectional and they open play in the tourney lid lifter this afternoon against 16th seed and last place DePaul. Ths Bulls might be in the best shape among the Big East teams that currently sit on the wrong side of the bubble. They’re third-from-out of the Matrix’s consensus field with a total of 17 mock votes. That’s a good number to build up from and still sneak into the field. Just when you thought this team was dead and out after a loss to St. John’s, they pulled eveyone back in with an impressive final week including a big a win over UConn over the weekend. The Bulls are now shooting for something higher, namely a breakthrough bid into the NCAA Tournament. Conventional wisdom says the Bulles need to make quick work of woeful Depaul this afternoon to set up a play-in game for themselves tomorrow in the same time slot against Georgetown. The Bulls had never won more than four Big East games in a season, but won nine league games this year. If they can land a couple more, they could be dancing. If you havent caught any Bulls games this season, make a point to do so during this sectional. Dominque Jones and his 21 points per game is one of the more exciting players in the country. If he sticks around for a senior season we could be entering an era of bigtime college hoops in Tampa.

UCONN VS ST. JOHN’S, 2:00, ESPN. LINES, UCONN -4, O/U 133.5 Read more »