Bubble News

Let’s take a tour of the mock bracket crowd as Championship Sunday arrives:

BaselineStats has Utah State, UNLV Minnesota and Virginia Tech are the last four in. Florida, Illinois Mississippi and Seton Hall as the last four out.

Bracketology 101 doesnt have an updated bracket, but thinks the Gophers are in regardless and that Illinois, Florida and Virginia Tech are agruing over 1 spot between them

Joey Brackets says that New Mexico State’s upset of Utah State last night forces Mississipi State out of the field. For now. He says there are two spots for seven teams with Virginia Tech and Minnesota holding the cards now. On Gameday, he just said if both Minnesota and Mississippi State win today, the final at large bid will come down to a debate between Utah State and Virginia Tech. Interesting. I say just play it off on Tuesday. That’s the kind of bracket expansion I’d be down with, yo!

The Bracket Project’s last four at large bids have gone to, from first to worst, Florida, Virginia Tech, Rhode Island and Illinois? But, it doesnt reflect yesterday. Where does Utah State now factor in? What about the Bulldogs and Gophers? He could have a totally different final four when his final bracket is posted after the Big 10 Tournament than he did 24 hours during his last update. It’s been a soft bubble, but one of the more exciting and topsy-turvy final 72 hours in the long time. Good stuff.

Bracketography has the Gophers safely in the field. Mississipi State, Florida and Virginia Tech all out of the field. He says the real bubble is a debate over four bids between seven teams: Utep, Wake, Illinois, Georgia Tech, Florida, Mississippi State and Virginia Tech. If he were running the selection, I would not want to be Georgia Tech if they get woodshedded and MSU wins today. Utep is also his last team in. By far the most differing opinion I’ve seen out there on the pecking order.

Bracketology65 says a Mississippi State win today becomes an even SEC swap with Florida getting kicked to the NIT. Minnesota and Utah State are in his field. Illinois and Virginia Tech are not.

Bracketville has invited Wake, Utep, Utah State, Minnesota and Florida into his neighborhood as the final five teams in. Only voices in the selection room that demand more quality wins will help Illinois. Read more »

 Let’s be totally cheesy and use Joey Brackets from ESPN whose field they just posted on TV. Illinois, Rhode Island and Washington are among the final five in. Minnesota and Mississippi State are among the final five cut out. Even folks not interested in priming the pump of their own TV broadcasts seem to agree with this order. BaselineStats has URI, Illinoi and UW as their final three in with Minnesota and Mississippi State lurking among his last cuts.  All play today among the dozen games on tap today among the multi-bid leagues. It seems to be the consensus that on the eve of selection day, there are only enough bids available to count on one hand and these five teams all have a chance that nobody else has today to stake a claim. You can make a case that there’s room in the field still for all five. Who the heck knows which way the debate for the final at large bids will turn if all five lose today. I wont lie, there is part of me that would like to see that happen because I think we’ll get some crazy selections from the committee that will come out of nowhere. Billy Packer might just interupt one of the first round games Shooter-style from Hoosiers in protest. That could be exciting. This will prove to be one last pinata swing at the bubble that will determine what pecking order will fall out. Beware of Bid Thieves in Conference USA and the ACC this afternoon that could derail some of the process. If I were a fan of Florida, Virginia Tech, Ole Miss, Dayton and even Wake Forest, I would be looking for VooDoo dolls of those teams to drive sabres through.

 If things go right the Big 10 could be the big winner of the weekend. Before the weekend, the Big 10 looked like a 4-bid league. That’s a disapointment from preseason expectations after seven bids a year ago and performing very well in NCAAs. But now they look like a decent bet to bump up to as many six bids. Anytime you can increase your conference’s bid total by 50-percent during the final weekend of play, you’ve put your mark on March Madness as a league. Illinois impressive effort against Wisconsin and Minnesota exorcising demons over Michign State have set both clubs up for at-large bids that didnt have in their hands heading into the Big 10 sectionals. Are you kidding me with this Minnesota run? No, we’re not, and buckle in your March may get a lot more interesting. The Dagger already claims six bids for the Big 10, saying Minnesota can move to lock status with a win. The ESPN Gameday talking heads all just preached the Gohper Gospel during their last segment saying Minnesota was a tournament team. Hubert Davis said they passed the eye test and Jay Bilas said they deserve to be in the field. Why are the pimping Minnesota? Dont they know their game is on CBS today? I thought ESPN hated the Big 10? Dont tell me Internet Tin Foil Hat Wearers have led my astray. Shocker.

Anyway in the Big 10 semifinals today it sure does seem the Big 10 can put a lockdown on six NCAA bids. Illinois win over the Badgers have finally moved them back into the Bracket Matrix. They’re a Matrix 12-seed, but with 47 votes, they have the fewest amount of votes of any at-large team in that consensus field. Eight of the nine mocks that updated this morning do have them in, so they’re support is rolling fast in the right way. No way they get turned away at the Ball if they beat Ohio State today. The Buckeyes really overmatched Illinois twice this year. But if the Illini can pull a 180 on the Bucks the way they did to Wisconsin five days after the Badgers embarrassed them at home, then they can easily win this game today. They’re seven-point dogs. That intrigues me. Have you noticed how strong the puppies have been barking during this Big 10 sectional? The Underdog is 5-2 ATS. Yesterday, they swept the board and on the first half, second half, final score trifecta, if you will, they were 10-2 ATS. I think that shows that while the league’s cream rose to the top and became elite and the middle class fell short of expectations, there wasnt that big of a gap between those teams when you really break it down. This league was marked by its top four squeaking out wins against the middle of the pack all season long.

Minnesota dropping games in the final minute they had dead to rights against Michigan State and Purdue come to mind. Tuck those games away and not go 1-3 against Indiana and Michigan and the Gohpers are easily in the field right now. In fact, they would have been part of the regular season title chase. But it’s two down in the big 10 finals, but how manhy more to go for the Gophers? Is one enough? Two will give them the automatic bid anyway.  Minnesota exacted a measure of revenge for that first heartbreak and have got themselves back into at-large discussion. If they can exact a second dose today, they will jump into most people’s mock brackets. Bracketville and Bracketology 101 already have them in their field among the mock bracket crowd. These folks have had them in all along and have moved ahead of their final four in group.

So, they Big 10 has a chance to leave its mark on the final bid invites. But, there are plenty of other contenders. There are 13 games today between teams from possible multi-bid leagues. Five games will have direct impact of the bubble, three involve the bid thieves we talked about in an earlier post and the remaining four are, well, frankly, like quality college football bowl games like UK vs Tennessee in the SEC Semifinals or the Big East and Big 12 Championship games. And, there are six championship games, all televised in a row on ESPN2, from one bid leagues. Whoa. Lots of good hoops. Hunker down. Make a sandwich. Crack open some brewdoggers. And, enjoy while,  as we always do, let’s take a look at the bubble games away from the Big 10 today. We’ll have a full on picks post in a little bit. Read more »

 Three bubble teams lost yesterday, killing their chances with a one-and-done showing in their league sectionals. Two have gone today with Virginia Tech losing to last place Miami and Ole Miss falling to Tennessee. Despite the proverbial better loss, Ole Miss is in worse shape. I think they are out. The Hokies, meanwhile, become one of the bigger arguments the rest of the weekend. They finished in fourth place in the ACC. They have over 20 wins. But, they played a pathetic schedule, lack marquee wins compared to many of the other bubble teams and now have two losses to the cellar dweller in their conference. They really have opened the door for others to steal their bid. Like Rhode Island or Illinois. Have they done enough? There’s a chance they’re both in right now. No way they get left out if they add wins tomorrow in their conference semifinals.  And then there’s tonight’s action. There’s five games that will give the bubble one big final shake. It’s pointless to have any true arguments on the last few invites until those games are in the books. So, lets check back in with each other at midnight and figure it all out. In the meantime, here’s a peak at those bubble games, with, natch, picks at bottom of the page.

FLORIDA VS MISSISSIPPI ST

Does this amount to an SEC playoff game for one of the final spots in the field? A win over the Gators gives the Bulldogs an excellent shot at grabbing a bid, despite thier rather low placement and single vote in the current Bracket Matrix. Add in a win tomorrow and its a lock. They have no shot if they lose tonight. As for the Gators, they might not be safe after all. Somebody’s got to get left out of the field. If everyone else on the bubble continues to win–like the did this afternoon–and this ends up as a Gator loss, they’ll have to sweat it. Here’s how to guage if the Gators are in trouble. Since its the only head-to-head bubble game, let’s say if the Gators are the only bubble team to lose tonight, then it’s time to worry. Double it for each one of them that goes one to win tomorrow.

Dayton vs Xavier

Dayton needs this win to jump back into bubble discussion. A Flyer win wont clinch a bid, but it demands them a place right in the middle of the final debate. And, they would get another chance tomorrow to put another good result on the board. An A10 finalist Flyer squad would be hard to keep out especially if it comes with wins over Xavier and Richmond. Despite just three votes in the Bracket Matrix, the odds arent stacked against the Flyers in this field or for getting a tournament bid. Dayont blew out Xavier at home and lost a nailbiter to them on the road. No reason to think they’re overmatched. I think the Flyers are capable of tightening this bubble by getting hot the next couple of days. This a bigtime rivalry game. There is a ton at stake. It’s worth pointing out this is a moot point in a 96-team field. Dayton would be in that field win or lose. Instead, they have to win one, maybe two playoff games just to get to the real playoffs. Who needs drama like that? Read more »

We had bloody bubble carnage yesterday with Memphis, UAB and Arizona State all losing quarterfinal games in their respective conference tournaments. Those teams represent the third-from-last in the field, second-from-last cut and fourth-from-last cut per the Bracket Matrix consensus. Memphis and UAB looked destined for a play-in game against each other in the CUSA semifinals tonight, but by falling short of the game, both are probably NIT bound. In a matter of hours yesterday, Conference USA went from a possible three-bid league to likely just one bid. Not surprisingly, a Mike Davis squad had something to do with this failure. With an at-large bid hanging in the balance, the Blazers had their worst loss during his tenure in Birmingham. Indiana fans are nodding their heads somewhere. The Sun Devils were steaming towards a similar type of play-in against Washington in the Pac 10 today, but by going one-and-done in the Pac 10 sectional, their bubble has been popped. Who can step in and take advantage of the bubble void left in the wake of these three losses? I say ditch work early today, because there are several games during the Friday afternooon session that will have so much bubble impact they’re basically playoff games for the teams involved.

The day starts with quarterfinal games in the Big 10, ACC, SEC and Atlantic 10. The first quartet of games all involve the tops seeds in those sectionals. Games like Temple/St. Bonaventure, Duke/Virginia, Kentucky/Alabama and Ohio State/Michigan dont have much impact on the bubble. The underdogs are facing elimination and all need to win the autmatic bid to stay alive for next weekend. The top-seeded chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. needs to fight the quirky motivational issues that crop up during league sectionals. And, perhaps, need to win to avoid the ‘no team who loses their first league tournament game has even gone on the win the national championship’ curse. Final Four contenders Syracuse and Villanova will be testing that theory out beginning next week. Will any of these top-seeds join them in their experiment to buck history?

Obviously, the game I will be keeping an eye of those four is the Michigan-Ohio State contest. Nothing like a bitter rivalry to hopefully add spice to the first set of games that otherwise look pretty ‘meh.’ The Wolverines beat OSU in early January, but Evan Turner was still out of the lineup with an injury. In the rematch in Columbus in late February, Michigan took a one-point halftime lead, but the Buckeyes ran them off the floor in the second half. I’m pretty confident the Wolverines can play for 30-35 minutes with the Buckeyes. I am worried about the 5-10 minute stretch where everything falls apart and Michigan goes on their patened scoring drought. Can they minimize that? They’re going to have to if they want to be in this during the closing minutes. It’s going to take an impressive effort to keep their season alive against the Buckeyes.

The heavy action takes place in the four games immediately after those top-seeds play. All four of the 4/5 games this afternoon in those quarterfinals have major bubble impacts. In fact the last great bubble push of the season may take from 2:00-5:00 this afternoon as those games play out. Like I said, skip work because we have some college basketball playoff games on the schedule. Here’s a quick look at them, with picks following.

Illinois vs Wisconsin Read more »