As for the rest of the comprehensive Bracket Matrix, it continues to have a major mid-major feel to it on both sides of the bubble. The final four at large seeds to make the current Matrix are all from your non-traditional power leagues: Wichita State, Virginia Commonwealth, Richmond and George Mason. On the outside looking in near the immediate cutline are more mid-majors. The four teams on the cutline right behind the last cut Nittany Lions are Gonzaga, Duquense, Butler and UAB.  It’s a mid-major party on the bubble as February starts. It will be interesting to see how many of these teams can remain strong bid contenders and which power conference teams come out of nowhere and make a run this month. There’s a big night of hoops ahead of us this evening. Here’s a quick rundown of the games to keep an eye on.

Marquette at Villanova…..How much was Marquette’s win over Syracuse worth over the weekend? They Golden Eagles saw their vote total rise from 42 to 51–one shy of unanimous–and they jumped from a projected 11-seed up to the 9-seed line. Obviously losing tonight on the road to Villanova wont put them in any real danger of losing that support. For tonight, they are playing with house money as the seek a road resume win. Like almost every Big East game this season, including the one between contenders UConn and Syracuse, this game should be a fun one.

Nebraska at Kansas State……..two teams headed in opposite directions meet in the Little Apple. The Wildcats, a preseason top-5 team that was considered a contender for a top seed when the season began, is hanging on for dear life with just 28 mock bracket votes. Its good enough to be an 11-seed in the current Matrix, but they’ve been plummeting for a month now and cant afford a home loss in games like this if they want to stay afloat. As for Nebraska, they have done a complete turnaround from a year ago. They’re 15-5 and thanks to last weekend’s win over Texas A/M has gained some steam among the mock crowd with seven votes right now after having just one a week ago. A road game against KSU and hosting Kansas this weekend give the Huskers a perfect stage to earn a lot more votes a week from now.

Mississippi St at Alabama/Georgia at Arkansas…….I dont know what to make of the SEC, perhaps most especially these four teams playing each other tonight. Arkansas had an impressive win at Vanderbilt over the weekend, but it didnt do them a ton of favors among the mock crowd, netting just two total votes. A second straight win over a current Matrix team would be more momentum that would be tougher to ignore. Georgia is struggling and while they’re still a near unanimous selection, they’ve fallen to the 10-line. Who knows which Hog or which Dawg team will show up tonight? Alabama, meanwhile, saw their support spike this week, coming really out of nowhere, with no outstanding result over the weekend, pushing them to 14 total mock votes, good for sixth-from-last cut from the field. One theory is laziness as some bloggers just vote whoever is in first place and, well, the Tide do have the SEC’s best conference mark at this point. For whatever that’s worth. Their opponent tonight might be primed for a late season surge, now that Dee Bost is back in the fold after missing the first half of the season with NCAA eligibility issues. Right now, they’re a long way from an at large bid and it might even be an impossible road anyway at this point. But, dont sleep on them as a March darkhorse given their run to SEC Tournament Championship two years ago and their return to the finals last year. Regardless, when it comes to these four teams, I can see a future when none of them are announced on Selection Sunday a lot easier than I can see one where more than one of them gets called.

Hofstra at George Mason……The Patriots moved into the Bracket Matrix this week with a total of 29 votes. They are one of three Colonial teams currently in the Matrix, along with Old Dominion and VCU. A total of 20 mocks have all three in their field, so this isnt a mere fluke like an assortment of folks slotting Alabama because they are in first place. Tonight the Patriots host Hofstra, perhaps the best CAA team not in the current Matrix. It’s the 9-2 second place Patriots versus the 8-3 tied for third place Pride. In what’s shaping up as a multiple bid league, this is a huge game in the race for the top two seeds in the CAA sectional next month. It’s the great gravy of a full CAA schedule this evening.

Duke at Maryland…..Usually this game provides us with great theater. The plots tonight are obvious. How in the world will Duke respond in their first game since the embarassing beatdown at the hands of St. Johns. Maryland, meanwhile, seeks a marquee win and beating Duke would be X marks the spot. The Terps moved from 5 votes to 13 in the latest straw poll.  The momentum is headed in the right direction.

Missouri at Oklahoma State……..The Cowboys are just another Big 12 team reeling after a lousy January with no big time win that grabs your attention anywhere on their resume that needs a rocking February if they want to play into the NCAAs. The good news for the Pokes is that they have plenty of home chances to string together enough eye opening wins beginning with tonight’s contest against the Missouri Tigers.

San Diego State at Colorado State……The mid-major seasoning thats flavoring the bracket look right now doesnt seem to be helping the Mountain West’s push for a fourth possible bid behind BYU, SDSU and UNLV. We know this because despite all the upsets and the typical bubble upheaval a weekend full of hoops this early in THE PROCESS, Colorado State managed to lose ground, despite not losing. And, New Mexico didnt register even a courtesy vote despite taking down BYU and Jimmer on national TV last Saturday. Getting back to the Rams, they’re still holding on to eight votes, but they’re no longer even part of the final eight cut grouping anymore as they’ve fallen farther back. A win over the Aztecs would help them close the suddenly wider gap. In fact, it’s a must win. The Rams cant create the necessary at large resume without this win on their docket.

USC at UCLA……..One of the more underrated storylines going on right now is UCLA trying to claw its way back into the NCAAs after the bottom fell out a year ago. They enter February on the right side of the bubble, but they’re only a string of losses away from being NIT-bound. They’re running just shy of 80 percent support among the mock crowd with 40 out of 53 votes, good for one of the six 12-seeds that will be passed out on Selection Sunday. The line is fine, and a home loss to their fesity city rival Trojans would serve to crack some of their current support. The Bruins and Ben Howland are on the spot tonight. Overall, its  big week for the Bruins as they host St. Johns on Saturday. A 2-0 week probably cements them as a unanimous selection during the next comprehensive vote and moves them up a seed line or two. A 1-1 mark keeps them running in place right at the cutline. But, an 0-2 week will see them fall out of the Matrix and with the Pac 10 still down, not a ton of chances to earn the resume wins that help leap you from the wrong side of the bubble to the right side in February.

Meanwhile, ACC teams on both sides of the bubble try to clinch winnable road games for their resumes when Virginia Tech goes into Raleigh to play NC State and when Clemson travels to Virginia to take on the Cavs. St John’s is the toast of the town, but they’re still in a strong position where they can absorb a bad loss and a home defeat tonight to Rutgers would be just that.

Not bad for a team that had zero important non-conference wins, lost at home to Maine and began January by losing to Michigan. It’s been an amazing three weeks for the club as they’ve taken down Michigan State, Illinois and Wisconsin at home and lost at Ohio State and at Purdue by a combined four points. During the toughest stretch of their slate to date, they’re 4-2 straight up, 6-0 ATS. While I doubt the mocks are putting any stock in the moneymaking aspect of their January run, the Lions play has demanded that the crowd at least take notice. And with a soft and expanded bubble, the Lions results in the second toughest conference in the land are speaking a lot louder than any hole on their resume from out of conference play.

Where the Nittany Lions remain on the outside looking in they’re among the last four cut from the field per Joe Lunardi’s Bracket at ESPN, while another states the Lions still have work to do by placing them in their ‘decent resume, but not good enough’ group. Among those voting in favor of the Nittany Lions, they are across the board making them a double digit seed. They as low as a 13-seed in some mocks, but for the most part are either an 11- or 12-seed. Bracket Watch responded to the Super Headache that is trying to sort out a new field right now by adding 14 new teams to his field, half of which were new at-large invitees, including Penn State as an 11-seed. Three bracketologists have them as high as a 10-seed, notably Bracketology 101. Penn State was one of two new arrivals into his field, with Duquense being the other one. They highlight Penn State’s league scalps as evidence that Penn State is worthy of inclusion.

The Nittany Lions have eight losses and a tough road schedule left, but they now have three quality wins in conference, which is good enough – for the moment – to get a bid.

Some commentators at that blog questioned Penn State’s addition to the field, especially at the exclusion of a Maryland team that thumped the Nittany Lions by 30 points two months ago in the Big10/ACC Challenge. The resident bracketologist addressed those concerns head on in the comment section:

Maryland’s head-to-head win over Penn State is nice, but that doesn’t mean the Terps have a better overall resume than the Nittany Lions. That win is Maryland’s only Top 50 win to date, while Penn State has three Top 50 wins (a significant difference). Penn State’s ‘s RPI is also 24 points better than Maryland’s (46 vs. 70).

What’s caused this Penn State turnaround? After all, they won just 10 games a year ago and at 3-15 in Big 10 play finished in dead last place. Talor Battle is still on the team, the perpetual Nittany Lion Of The Week on the hardcourt, and still one of the Big 10′s best players. That helps. And while he continues to far outpace every other Nittany Lion in scoring, unlike a year ago, this team is much more than Battle. Battle was the only double digit scorer for the team a year ago, but this season two of his teammate, Jeff Brooks and David Jackson, chip in with at least 10 points per game apiece. Last season, Battle led the Lions in almost every major statistical category. This year, all he leads the team in is scoring. That doesnt sound like much, but PSU can function like a normal basketball team now that Sophomore Tim Frazier has emerged as a legit point guard and is around to dish out the ball, run the offense and relive some burden off of Battle. Or that instead of Battle leading the team in boards, they have three forwards in the starting lineup that eat more glass now than he does. One of those forwards is  Brooks. Playing ten more minutes a game than a year ago, he has responded with a whale of a senior campaign. Averaging 13.9 points per game, Brooks is one of the most efficient offensive players in the land, especially since developing the ability to make a three point shot. The upshot of it not being The Talor Battle Do Everything For Us All The Time Show anymore is a more balanced, appropriate outfit thats ranked 47th in the latest KenPom Ratings, 50 spots ahead of where they finished a year ago according to the hoops tempo free guru. They’ve also been able to close out games. A year ago, Penn State was 3-10 in games decided by six points or less, including 1-10 in Big 10 play.  This year, they’re 5-2, 3-2 in Big 10 play in those tight contests.

Despite their improved play, I wouldnt go out and bet your local book that Penn State will make the field. There is a long five weeks of the Big 10 regular season yet to play. They made headlines with some home upsets last month. Those waves need to continue and the Lions need to close strong to eventually earn an actual bid. Despite their improved showing in the KenPom Ratings, those same numbers still project a measly 15-14 overall record when its all said and done. That includes an 8-10 league mark and an expected 4-game losing streak to end the season against the slate of at Wisconsin, at Northwestern, vs Ohio State and at Minnesota. Based on their performance in recent weeks, I’d give the Nittany Lions a puncher’s chance at taking down the top-ranked Buckeyes in Happy Valley. But, if they cant sweep their other home contests–Michigan, Northwestern and Minnesota–then they’re going to have to nab some of those road games in that final four game set. If the Lions win all their home games, but lose all their road games–the basic trajectory that’s elevated their status to this date–that breaks them even in Big 10 play, but with an overall 16-13 record, I dont think that gets them in the field, barring a major run in the Big 10- Tournament. What if they match their first half Big 10 record and go 5-4 again over the back half? They’ll have a winning league mark, but still a rather unappealing 17-12 overall record. I’m still not sure that will be good enough without a win or two in the conference sectional. As great a ride as its been for Penn State these last three weeks, if they want to wrap up an at large bid before the regular season is over, they need to do better in the second half of Big 10 play than they did in the first half and go 6-3 in their final nine games.

They’ll being that pursuit tonight against Illinois. They had some screwy travel plans as weather diverted their flight to Champagne to an Evansville landing, where they bussing the final 200 miles. We’ll see what kind of legs they have, as a result. It’s a bit of a concern since the Nittany Lions have zero depth and basically play their starting five from opening jump to final buzzer. If they can survive whatever early rust and bus legs they have from the travel, I think they can hang with the Illini on the road. While I am not ready to call this bunch a tournament team yet, I am more than willing to ride with Chitownblue’s prediction earlier and take the Nittany Lions to cover the +8 tonight. We’re still a month away from March, but every game the Lions play from here on in will carry March weight. We’ll see if Talor Battle and his new, productive friends can handle the microscope.

One team that probably wont be in new Bracket Matrix is last year’s national runner up.  The Butler Bulldogs dropped another Horizon League game over the weekend, best by a balanced, effecient Valporaiso squad.  Its the Bulldogs fourth league loss this season after absorbing just eight league losses in the four previous seasons combined. There is understandable anxiety among the Butler faithful as the Bulldogs may have already played themselves into a ‘win the Horizon Tournament or else’ corner.  Butler was a Matrix 12-seed heading into the weekend, with 37 of 49 mocks putting them in the field. Obviously, the Bulldogs will fall out of the Matrix after the next straw poll, but I will predict the Bulldogs will lose almost all of their support. They’re going to have a hard time staying within the final eight cut from the field.   Their departure from the consensus will lead to a new at large team as headed into the weekend, the Horizon League has two teams in the field with Cleveland State sharing a spot on the 12-line with Butler. Both had widespread support with more than 30 votes apiece among the 49 pollsters. More than half, a total of 25 mocksters placed both in the field. I think Butler will lose a ton of support from that crowd and those votes will likely be spread among a cast of characters of early at large entrants from across the country. Their we 13 voters that just had Butler on their bracket, basically giving the Horizon champ their only vote. Those voters cant keep putting Butler in the field, can they? Look for those votes to be split between Cleveland State, who will obviously remain in the Matrix consensus field, and Valparaiso, whose might collect enough to put them inside and the final eight cut and fringe bubble territory. I dont know what thats worth as I dont think Valpo is a true at large candidate, but their run to the Horizon crown in just their fourth year since ‘promotion’ from the Mid-Continent–now the Summit–is one of the more fun mid-major stories of the winter.

Getting back to the patient at hand, however. So Butler, WHATS YOUR DEAL?!?! As the tempo free numbers indicate, the Bulldogs are just another player in the Horizon League among a group of players a step behind the lead pack. The falloff has been on the defensive end where Butler has gone from the 5th best defense a year ago according to KenPom to 138th this year. They dont force turnovers like a year ago, not can they guard teams without sending them to the line like a year ago. On the defensive ledger, they’ve fallen from 68th in eFG%, 60th in 3% and 108th in 2% to 171th, 109th, 228nd in those categories this season. In two of those comparisons the dropoff goes from top-20 percent of the country to bottom half or worse. They miss the defense of William Veasley. He gave them 31 minutes of elite collegiate defense on the perimeter a year ago. Shawn Vanzant and Zach Hahn have more than made up for Veasley’s offense, but their extended minutes on the floor as opposed to a year ago have made Butler weaker on defense. Of course, Butler’s ability to just rollout a mid-major power every year might be comprised when its star player leaves after his sophomore year as Gordon Hayward did. That’s not only a rare loss for Butler, but a premature one as far its Butler Way blueprint is mapped out. Keep that in mind when pondering Butler’s troubles this year. But getting back to their defensive decline. With an easier combination to solve, these good Horizon League offenses have been making Butler pay for it. The Bulldogs are sixth in the league in conference play in opponents points per possesion, up to 1.04 after a 0.92 mark a year ago. In their four league losses this season, the Bulldogs have allowed 74 points per game. The Bulldogs didnt allow more than 69 points in a Horizon League game a year ago.

Against Valpo, the Bulldogs struggled to get stops. The Crusaders shot 51.9 percent from the field and bagged 10 treys. They had four guys score at least 15 points and each one of them was able to get and make his shot it seemed whenever Valpo needed to answer with a bucket.  The upshot for the Crusaders is the win puts them in major contention to win its first league crown in just its fourth year since its ‘promotion’ from the Mid-Continent/Summit Conference. The upshot for Butler is near flat line at large hopes. They embark on their Northeast Ohio trip this week. They shouldnt have any trouble with Youngstown State, although the Penguins did pop off for 81 points in their loss to the Bulldogs earlier in the year. Playing at Cleveland State on Saturday will be a different story. The Bulldogs took care of the Vikes four weeks ago in a game that we thought might have pushed the Bulldogs around the corner after a rocky first two months. Almost a month later, its rematch time and the Bulldogs are argubaly farther away from making that turn. They’re still losing league games and their defensive problems havent been fixed. No reason to think that Cleveland State’s offense, like Valpo’s in their home court revenge rematch, cant shake loose and put another loss on Butler’s resume.

Will Gonzaga be joining them on the outside looking in? I think they might be, courtesy of this Mikey McConnell dagger that saw the Gaels win in Spokane for the first time years. St Mary’s late game heroics buried Gonzaga last Thursday may have put the Zags them on the wrong side of the bubble. Twenty of 34 mocks who supported them last week still seeded them 12th or worse. Eleven mocks have updated since their loss to the Gaels, and only two keep Gonzaga in their field. If those percentages maintain as the rest of the mocks come in, the Zags will be on the outside looking in heading in February. Teams typically dont hold on to their spot according to the jury of bracketologists after losing a marquee home game when clinging to an at large spot like that. I wonder how many of the 34 folks who slot both St. Mary’s and Gonzaga will keep two WCC teams in the field? I think the number shrinks to single digit and the Zags will bear the brunt of all the attrition. I dont think a home rout of last place San Diego registered any dent to folks who had doubts about putting Gonzaga on one of their final bracket slots during the upcoming vote. The Zags do have some immediate remedies this week. A road game at Portland, who just thumped that same St. Mary’s squad over the weekend, and a home game next Saturday night against Memphis. With a 2-0 week, they could re-energize any support they lost this week and maybe put them back  on the right side of the bubble just in time for the home stretch.

The three other double digit seeds that absorbed losses over the weekend include Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Richmond.  Will they fall out? In looking at the Big 12 teams, Oklahoma State may tumble to the wrong side of the bubble, while KSU could still hold on to a spot. Four mocks have updated since the weekend and two keep Okie State in, but as 12 seeds. KSU’s support seems strong with three of the four keeping them on their ballots as a 9, 10 and 12 seed respectively.

Here’s the quick situation with both: at 2-5 both teams are tied for 10th place, one game out of the cellar. Its not good when you’re looking up at Colorado and Texas Tech as the midpoint of league play nears. Until the Wildcats or Pokes can jump those teams in the league table, then they’ll probably be placed on the wrong side of the bubble by several, if not a majority of bracketologists. The Big 12 Outlook labels four teams as certain NCAA clubs (Texas, Kansas, Missouri and Texas A/M), with everyone else shoved into no better than bubble postion. KSU did beat Va Tech, Gonzaga and Wassau in non conference play, so they have three critical head to head wins over current bubble mates. But the last of those wins was two months ago. They havent been done any favors by a Big 12 slate thats seen them visit Stillwater, Missouri, College Station and Lawrence already. They need to muster a sweep of a stretch of three winnable games to start February if they want to get back attention: Nebraska, at Colorado and Iowa State. Those games come in front of  a major home game with Kansas two weeks from tonight. If the Wildcats can go on a mini winning streak, puncuated by a court storming win over the Jawhawks, the story on KSU’s postseason chances will have done a 180.  As for the Cowboys, they  lost to Zags, VT in out of conference play and their best three OOC wins are Bama, Tulsa and  Murray State. They didnt start Big 12 play with a proper March resume. Dropping a winnable game at Texas Tech has the season at rock bottom. The good news is they have a lot of resume win chances left. Five of their next six are against teams at least ten games better than .500, including all four of the Big 12′s ranked teams. The bad news is they way they’re playing, they are not likely to win too many. KenPom doesnt give them better than a 37 percent chance at winning any of those resume games. And with two coin flips down the stretch, it’s not likely that the Cowboys are going to have the goods to get back to .500 in league play. That’s going to hurt on Selection Sunday.

Look for Richmond to rebound with a winning streak, but I dont think it will help them. Richmond’s next four games are againt teams that are ccombined 29-52 overall, 6-22 in A10 play. They have a similar three game stretch beginning in late February. With the door to the right side of the bubble wide open, a team with a guady looking record like Richmond would seem attractive. But, while they feast on games that are conference cupcakes, their bubble brethern will likely be making larger statements with resume wins during that time. I dont think there is anything they can do once they fall out of favor. Think how many resume wins prospective bubble teams will win over the next three weeks while the Spiders play all A10 second division teams, including the bottom three clubs?Richmond’s at large hopes may be boiled down to winning out against those lightweights, hope for continued bubble chaos all February long and sweep their remaining two red letter games at Temple on February 17 and at home vs Duquense on March 5 in the regular season finale. Although maybe I’m jumping the gun on their removal.  Some early precints are in. Four mocks have already updated to include the weekend and three still have Richmond in the field. One mock gives them some cushion even as a 10 seed, but its a curious bracker as it excludes Xavier, fresh off the trouning of the Spiders two days ago. The other two dont give them any cushion with one putting them in as a 12-seed, while the other has forced Richmond in one of the at-large play in games. How will the rest of the bracketologists respond in the next 24 hours?

Who replaces them?  Wichita State, Washington State, George Mason and Baylor were the last four out of the consensus Matrix before the weekend. All four won this weekend, so its reasonable to assume those squads have enough built in support right now to ascend into any vacancy.

I think Washington State is the biggest lock of the group as far as guessing which flavor of the week is guaranteed to move into the new consensus. They had one the most impressive wins of the weekend when they took down the 17 ranked UW  Huskies. It was a perfect game for the Cougars. Wassau had way too much offense, shot the ball well all game and scored at will in the paint. They harassed Huskies star Isiah Thomas into his worst game of the year as Cougar Team Defense was the night’s unsung hero. The Cougars were already on 25 mock brackets to begin with. They should gather in enough of the votes spilled to grab an 11 or 12 seed after the next polling. With the win, Wassau moves to 5-4 in Pac 1o play and face a manageable slate in the next fortnight travelling their Oregon swing before coming home to host the northern California teams. Thanks to the win over the arch rival Huskies, the Wassau Cougars are looking good. They need to put some distance between themselves and the break even mark in Pac 10 play. If they’re still just one game above .500 in league play heading into their road game at Arizona in the middle of February, then they will remain in shaky status as they arrive in Tucson.  Prospective bubble teams, you are officially cheering for the Cougs to be stricken by the upset bug during the first half of February.

Wichita State is perhaps an equally good bet to get into the latest consensus. They had 30 votes before the weekend and thanks to the early returns today have already picked up three addition votes and have ascended to the 13-line in the wake of their 20-point thumping of Bradley. Two things to watch as the rest of the vote comes in. How much closer to being a unanimous selection will the Shockers get and how many votes does Missouri Valley Conference mate Missouri State maintain. The Bears were one vote shy of being unanimous a week ago, but one of the four mocks thats already voted today has kept them off. They lost a home game last night to a tough Northern Iowa squad. The normally effecisent Bears offense just stopped scoring the final eight minutes of the game as the Panthers showcased flashes of the elite defense that carried them to the Sweet 16 a year ago. The Bears has been a unanimous mock selection because they were sole possession of first place in the MVC. Now, they’re tied with the Shockers. As well regarded as the league is, it hasnt been much for becoming a multi-bid league even as support for mid-majors grows. Three of the top seven biggest RPI at-large snubs have occurred in recent years to MVC schools, including twice to this Bear program.  It will be interesting to see how the current MVC math changes in the next comprehensive update. Here’s what we’re comparing it to. Before the weekend, 48 mocks had Missouri St and 30 had Witchita. A total of 19 only had the Bears, 29 had both and just one only had the Shockers.

George Mason carried 19 votes into the weekend and are likely forcing more than a few bracketologists to think over the issue of placing three Colonial Athletic Association teams on their bracket as February begins.  Old Dominon and VCU were already part of the consensus field with 42 and 34 votes respectively out of 49. Seven mocks already had three CAA teams in their field to begin with. Almost all have two Colonial teams in one combination or another. Twenty-nine mocks have both ODU and VCU on the bracket. None of those teams did anything this week that should see them lose any support. And Mason doesnt need to grab too many more votes to crack the Matrix. It will be interesting to see how much increased support any of these Colonial combos sees. I wonder how many more mocks will put all three on their latest ballot? Regardless with homes games this week against Hofstra and Old Dominion, the Patriots are a 2-0 week from being an even more major player in these early bubble proceedings. The Patriots were in a similar position a year ago, but wilted. Can the write a different sotry this February?

But which teams ascend into any vacated spots on the last bracket vote of January isnt all that important. There is so much more basketball to play. The bubble looks soft, wide open and with a couple more at large spots to dole its also a little bit bigger than past years. The stories are the teams coming from far off the rail, who had next to know support heading into the weekend. I dont know if any of these teams will approach the consensus field when the latest update is complete, but I am more than intrigued to see how much more support the following teams will receive:

Duquense. The Dukes sit atop the A10 with an undefeated record. They had six votes headed into the weekend, but have already picked up a seventh vote with the early returns. I wouldnt be shocked if a lot of Richmond support just gets swapped out with Duqense, giving the Dukes perhaps one of the last at large slots.

Colorado State. The Rams are sneaking around in the Mountain West Conference that has a lot of credibility. Like Duquense, they come into the latest update with six votes.

New Mexico. The Lobos might have stolen whatever thunder the under-the-radar Rams had in the Mountain West with their big win over BYU and Jimmer Fredette. The Lobos didnt have a single vote heading into the week. Is their resume win over the Cougars and college basketball’s media darling worth anything immediately.

Penn State. The Lions continue to be a tough out in the Big 10. They secured their third Big 10 statement win of January over the weekend with a takedown of Wisconsin in Happy Valey. I dont think they have an NCAA resume just yet, but they sure are putting the right pieces in place for one when the season crosses its finish line. The Lions had three mock votes headed into the weekend. The early returns arent great as none of the four early updates include the Nittany Lions. Can PSU keep their close game mojo?  A year after laboring to a 3-10 mark in games decided by five points or less, Penn State is 5-2 this season in those tight games.

Other teams to watch if they gain any more support today include Maryland, who had five votes a week ago, Nebraska, who had 2 and Clemson and Arkansas, who had one apiece. All four won games over the weekend. The Huskers beatdown Texas A/M, Clemson throttled Florida State and Arkansas went on the road and beat Vanderbilt in Nashville. The Terps struggled a bit on the road before putting away Georgia Tech last night, but can make one of the biggest statements of the week with a match in College Park on Wednesday with Duke.

St. John’s at Georgetown, 7:00, EPSN 3/ESPN Full Court. Line, GTown -9

St. John’s loss to Cincinnati last Saturday might have been the most painful defeat for any bubble contender on the weekend. By missing more free throws than they made (13 to 12), the Johnnies gave away a game in a 1-point home loss to the Bearcats. It was St. John’s fourth loss in five games as their Big East schedule ratchets up in difficulty. And, their heartbreaker to Cincy combined with a blowout at the hands of Louisville earlier in the week, finally netted some payback with the Bracketology crowd. The Johnnies are still firmly in the bracket as 36 of 41 pollsters have them in their field, but the’ve fallen from a 6th seed to a 9th seed in one week and saw the number of mocks excluding them from the field increase from two to five. The going continues to get tougher for St. John’s. Tonight, they travel to Georgetown, a Matrix 5th seed. The Hoyas are on the upswing after a pair of road league wins last week paced by Austin Freeman’s conference player of the week efforts as he finally showed the game that made him a  preseason conference player of the year contender. On Sunday, the Johnnies host Duke in the Garden. That’s the rub for St. John’s the rest of the way. They’ll have plenty of chances for resume wins from here on out. But how many more failures in those games can they endure before they’re on the wrong side of the bubble? Bottomline: St. John’s candidacy will be a tight one all winter. If they fall short of the bracket on Selection Sunday, they’ll rue the day in January when they were ice cold at the charity stripe.

North Carolina at Miami, 7:30, ESPN 2. Line, UNC -1

It’s really the same old story for Miami. They look good enough through early January to inspire hopes for an NCAA berth, but eventually they lack enough flair and playmaking to survive the ACC rigors and a weak league showing slowly, but surely squashes their hopes for the Big Dance. This season, a nice 11-3 mark with good looking wins over West Virginia and Ole Miss and a nailbiting loss at Memphis has given way to January ACC blues. A 1-4 mark this month in conference play has pushed the Canes not only to the bottom of the league standings, but out of their early spot in the bracket projections. They lost a pair of 2-point games at home to Florida State and on the road to NC State. Those results, as tight as they were, carried some bracketology consqeuences. The Canes fell from a 12-seed with 23 votes to sixth-from-last out of the field with just 10 votes. They’ll look to currty some of that favor back when they host the Tar Heels this evening. UNC appears to have put last year’s blues behind them, and are a solid, consensus 5th seed in the latest matrix projections. But, as their 20-loss in Atlanta to a bad Georgia Tech team a week ago proved, its that we’re still not dealing with a vintage UNC outfit. If the Canes can take advantage of that and snare a rare win for them over UNC, then they could find themselves on the correct side of the bubble again during the next straw poll.

Texas at Oklahoma State, 7:30, ESPN. Line, Texas -4.5

When we last saw the Lonhghorns, they were busy snapping the nation’s longest winning streak and taking down top ranked Kansas in Lawrence. Do they have another big effort in a notoriously challenging road venue in them? If they do, and they beat Oklahoma State tonight in Stillwater, it wont resonate nationally the way their win over the Jawhawks did. But, unlike that upset, it would create some ripples on the bubble. Oklahoma State is just barely hanging on in the consensus Matrix. After being run off the floor by Baylor in Waco over the weekened, the Cowboys have fallen to a projected 11 seed and, what’s worse, one quarter of the 41 mocks have left them out of the field. Expect some of that support to whither further if they cant beat the Horns tonight in Stillwater. Their  perimeter defense has been trending downward, and the Pokes continue to struggle identifying a go-to scorer with James Anderson not on campus anymore. Can the Cowboys get one of the seven wins they need the rest of the way conventioanl wisdom says they need to make the NCAAs over the hot Horns tonight? If so, then their spot solidfies. If not, then they’ve missed out on a golden chance for a resume win on their home floor.

Northwestern at Minnesota, 8:30, Big 10 Network. Line, Minny -5

If Northwestern’s goal on Sunday was to look so bad that no bracketologist in their right mind would even put them in their mythical final cut group, then mission accomplished. The Cats were non competitive on the defensive end as the Badgers routed the Cats at Welsh Ryan Arena, keeping Northwestern from earning that league resume win that had been eluding them thus far in the winter. The good news? The game was over quickly. Folks were willing to give them the benefit of the doubt when close calls came up short against the likes of Michigan State and Illinois, and the Cats entered the weeekend among the pack in the final cut list. But now they are way off the radar. Remarkably, one blogger remains in Northwestern’s camp, while the other three votes they’re still holding on too come from folks who have not cast a ballot since the weekend’s results. If Northwestern wants to break into the NCAAs for the first time ever, they need a rally and they need to start it fast. They are still looking for their first upset, resume win of the season. No better way to start than going on the road against the Gophers, a current consensus 5th seed in the Matrix.

Iowa at Penn State, 6:30, Big 10 Network. Line, PSU -7.5

Are the Big 10′s hopes for a seventh bid into the NCAAs resting with a 10-8 club? It sure looks like it. Northwestern cant buy a resume win and was just smoked by Wisconsin. Michigan has seen their solid out of conference defense wither in conference play as January has been kinder to past Big 10 football champions than it has to the Wolverine hoopsters, who are skidding on a six-game losing streak. With Iowa and Indiana also out of the at large mix, that leaves it up to Penn State and the Fighting Ed DeChellis’s to pull in another invite for the league. Considering they’re just 10-8 and have a bad loss to Maine on their resume, it seems like a longshot. But the Nits have really made bigtime waves in their last 4 starts: home wins over Michigan State and Illinois followed by nip and tuck losses on the road to Ohio State and Purdue by a combined 4 points. Despite their meager overall record and current losing mark (3-4) in the Big 10, the Nittany Lions are more than on the radar of Bracketologists. Three of them already have them in the field, including one that puts them in the field over Gonzaga and Tennessee.  Lunardi at ESPN puts Penn State in his second group of 4 to miss the cut and the Lions have found themselves on  another’s watchlist for the upcoming weeks. If the Lions can get people to notice them with a measly 10-8 mark, what happens if they can spruce up their record? Tonight’s home game with Iowa gives them a chance to do that, while a home date with Wisconsin over the weekend gives them a chance for another resume pelt in Big 10 play. If they sweep this week, their record will still be a pedestrian looking 12-8.  But, can any other bubble team in the country compare with Penn State’s statement wins in league play?

UCF at Memphis

Before last weekend, there were three Conference USA teams amid the first eight teams left out of the consensus Bracket Matrix making that part of the pecking order look like a pre-Christmas Day college football bowl schedule than anything else. But, the weekend’s carnage took a bite out of the league’s hopes. Southern Miss lost at home to SMU, causing the Eagles to lose every ounce of the support, which had had them in the surprising position of being the last team cut from the Bracket Matrix a week ago. Memphis beat UAB in Birmingham in a game between the other league schools on the final cut list. As a result, Memphis moved into the week’s Matrix, where they are a 13 seed, while UAB, like the Golden Eagles lost all of their support. The biggest news for the conference was yet another loss by the UCF Golden Knights. The Knights had been sitting pretty as a 7th seed in the Matrix as most bracketologists slated them in the field with the league’s automatic bid. The problem with that is their defeat over the weekend was their fifth in league play. Can a mock bracketologist have any credibility handing out an automatic bid to a team that is 1-4 in league play? I guess not as most mocked knocked the Knights from their field. They were undefeated at the start of January, gaining steam as a trendy March darkhorse and had unanimous support among the mock brackets. Heading into the final weekend of the month, they’ve dropped four games in row, are tied for last place and are down to bare bones support among the mocks with just 10 bloggers putting them in the current field. Can the Knights reverse this trend? Of course they cant. There is plenty of time left. And, January ends with a big stretch of games at Memphis tonight, hosting UAB on Saturday and at UTEP–current co-leader with Memphis–next week. Two wins out of those three might reinvigorate all the support they’ve been losing in recent days.

Carolina Blue Rebound?

Everyone knows the Tar Heels trajectory the last two season: National Champs in 2009-10, plummet to the bottom of the ACC standings a year ago with a 5-11 league mark. This season the Heels are 10-4, technically a half game worse than they were a year ago at this time. One difference? Last year the team had a bad loss to Charleston on their resume when the league season began. This season, they dont have any bad losses and actually have a resume win over Kentucky. The win over the Cats, plus testing themselves against the likes of Minnesota, Texas, Vanderbilt and Illinois, has them in position to return to the tournament, despite losing all those other showdowns. I put them on this initial storylines to watch list because I still dont know if the Heels have turned the corner. We’ll find out a lot now that ACC season begins. The Heels have a manageable schedule the rest of the month, beginning with a road test against Virginia (Saturday, noon, ESPN3). Only one team they play this month made the tournament a year ago. If the Heels can take care of business, that means a rise in the standings after last year’s 11th place finish. If they start alternating wins and losses, it could be another turbulent ACC season, esepcially once the schedule turns nasty the rest of the way begininning in February. The Heels are fun to watch. They shoot the ball well, score a lot of points, are monsters on the glass and have the next-great-thing with Harrison Barnes. We’ll see how much that carries over to league play and if they can close out some ACC wins and stay off the bubble.

Athens Is A Basketball City Now

The Georgia Bulldogs have been a feisty underdog play for me the last couple of seasons. For the most part, however, they’ve mastered the art of covering the spread, but losing on the scoreboard. It’s supposed to all come together this year for Dawgs. Indeed, the Sporting News Preseason Annual had the Bulldogs in their projected field before the season began. Their only out of conference win of note was a road victory over an average Georgia Tech team. They finished in 7th place in Old Spice Classic, but were relegated to the last place game only after close losses to Notre Dame and Temple, two teams currently ranked in the top-25. Naturally, the Bulldogs covered the spread in both contests. And those are the Dawgs only two losses of the season, so at 11-3 Georgia has put themselves in position to compete for their first at large bid in over a decade with a solid league run. SEC play begins for them Saturday and there will be no easing into the festivites with a home game against the powerful Kentucky Wildcats. To be sure, its a House Money game for the Bulldogs. Nobody will say ‘Boo’ about a loss, but a win really raises their profile. More than anything, its a highlighted game to watch just to see really how good the Dawgs are. With games the rest of this month at home against Florida, Tennessee, Mississippi State and on the road at Vanderbilt and at Rupp against UK in a rematch, the Bulldogs can become a story and a legit bid contender with some January wins.

Whither Butler?

Could last year’s national runner-up already be out of at-large consideration? At this point, I’d say it’s likely. With the target on their back and playing without Gordon Hayward, who left early for the NBA, the Bulldogs have struggled–by their standards–the first two months of the season. On one hand, its a surprise, but on the other hand The Butler Way probably doesnt have a playbook yet on how to ovecome the loss of your best player with two years of eligibility left. Their 10-4 record in out of conference play isnt the world’s worst outcome. A lot of teams lose to Louisville, Duke and Xavier. But the loss to Evansville looks bad, and, well, Horizon League play isnt off to a bang up start for the Bulldogs. They lost their earlier this week to a UW-Milwaukee by 24 points. So, the Bulldogs are now 10-5, with a pair of bad losses to mid-majors with sub .500 records. If they put up a guady Horizon record, they probably could still get an at-large bid. But, after the loss this week to Panthers, what are the chances of that? The next two Friday nights will tell us a lot as Butler takes faces the two teams that conventional wisdon claimed all along would be the challengers to their longtime grip on the Horizon throne: They host Cleveland State tonight (7pm, ESPN U) and at Detroit next week. These programs have given the Bulldogs all they could handle the last two seasons. If the Bulldogs lose both, they’re going to be be dangerously close to double digit losses. I cant see a team from a mid-major, even with Butler’s pedigree, getting an at large with 10 or more losses. Both the Vikings and Bulldogs enter tonight’s game in sour moods. Keep in mind that Butler has also not had the best luck wining the Horizon League tournament in recent years, so without an at large bid in their backpocket, the stakes in that sectional could be greater than ever. That’s still two months away. If Butler takes care of business and wins these two upcoming road games, then the flashy Horizon record–something like 15-3, for example–could still be in play and they have as good a shot as anyone at earning an at large.

Bearcats Undefeated, But Does Anyone Care?

If you were asked to name all the remaining unbeatens in college hoops, could you name them all? Would you put Cincinnati on the list? Probably not as they’ve flown mostly under the radar, with a slate bereft of anything close to a must-see game during the first two months. But here are the Bearcats headed into the second Saturday of January with a perfect 15-0 mark, fresh off a demolition of bitter crosstown rival Xavier 66-46 on Thursday night. What in the world of Bobby Huggins is going on? Rest assured nobody has punched a police horse. Yet. The team has been too busy winning games. With such a guady mark, they are a lock to make the field, right? Not really. Despite landing in this week’s polls, the Bearcats probably wont win too many bracketologists heart with their fifth weakest schedule in Division I that has seen them leave the state of Ohio just once so far this season.  I’ve been impressed the last couple of years with the fesitiness of Mick Cronin’s crew as they’ve tried to both rebuild and adjust to the much tougher life in the Big East. The last two years, however, nice pre-conference records have been taken down as the Bearcats struggled to 8-10 and 7-11 Big East marks. The last two seasons, however, Cincy played tougher November, December slates than this year.  Despite streaking to 15 wins out of the gates, I dont know if the Bearcats make the field unless they find a way to improve their Big East records from the last two seasons. Are they a tourney team, or do they resemble those early Clemson teams under Oliver Purnell that saw great records after two months fade under the wieght of a touch league slate. We’ll find out a lot more this weekend when they open Big East play and leave Ohio with a road match at highly ranked Villanova (Sunday, noon, ESPN Full Court). If they can get a win in Philly less than 48 hours after the beatdown of Xavier, the Bearcats resume might begin to have the legitmacy that its perfect record alleges.

A Lavin, St John’s Renaissance?

We’re going to hit you with back to back Big East teams to close down the Bubble News debut post. There’s been plenty of chatter for several years running about this monster league qualifying a record 10 teams into the Big Dance. They’ve always fallen short of that, but as league play begins everywhere, the Big East again could contend for that many bids and pretty much everybody but Depaul, Seton Hall and USF has put themselves in position for a bid with a quality league season. Let’s focus on the St. John’s Red Storm, led by first-year head coach Steve Lavin. We’re finding out whether or not Lavin can coach this game or not. They dont have the eye poppoing record as league mate Cincy and they have a pair of sketchy losses to Fordham and St. Bonnaventure. But unlike Cincy, they’ve actually played games in other teams’ gyms including a loss at WCC contender St. Mary’s and a win in Pac 10 country at Arizona State. They also have pummeled Northwestern, an expected bubble team from the Big 10. Oh, and, they’re already 3-0 in the Big East with wins at West Virginia, at Providence and at home vs Georgetown. Folks, this is looking like a tournament team with four of their top-5 scorers all shooting better than 50 percent from the field. Can they hold up? Every indication says yes, but January will be a bear for the Storm. Their seven remaining games this month are all against ranked opponents, including a game at Duke the final Saturday of the month. That treks begins tomorrow night against Notre Dame (8:00, EPSN) Let’s see where they stand after this guantlet.

BaselineStats has Utah State, UNLV Minnesota and Virginia Tech are the last four in. Florida, Illinois Mississippi and Seton Hall as the last four out.

Bracketology 101 doesnt have an updated bracket, but thinks the Gophers are in regardless and that Illinois, Florida and Virginia Tech are agruing over 1 spot between them

Joey Brackets says that New Mexico State’s upset of Utah State last night forces Mississipi State out of the field. For now. He says there are two spots for seven teams with Virginia Tech and Minnesota holding the cards now. On Gameday, he just said if both Minnesota and Mississippi State win today, the final at large bid will come down to a debate between Utah State and Virginia Tech. Interesting. I say just play it off on Tuesday. That’s the kind of bracket expansion I’d be down with, yo!

The Bracket Project’s last four at large bids have gone to, from first to worst, Florida, Virginia Tech, Rhode Island and Illinois? But, it doesnt reflect yesterday. Where does Utah State now factor in? What about the Bulldogs and Gophers? He could have a totally different final four when his final bracket is posted after the Big 10 Tournament than he did 24 hours during his last update. It’s been a soft bubble, but one of the more exciting and topsy-turvy final 72 hours in the long time. Good stuff.

Bracketography has the Gophers safely in the field. Mississipi State, Florida and Virginia Tech all out of the field. He says the real bubble is a debate over four bids between seven teams: Utep, Wake, Illinois, Georgia Tech, Florida, Mississippi State and Virginia Tech. If he were running the selection, I would not want to be Georgia Tech if they get woodshedded and MSU wins today. Utep is also his last team in. By far the most differing opinion I’ve seen out there on the pecking order.

Bracketology65 says a Mississippi State win today becomes an even SEC swap with Florida getting kicked to the NIT. Minnesota and Utah State are in his field. Illinois and Virginia Tech are not.

Bracketville has invited Wake, Utep, Utah State, Minnesota and Florida into his neighborhood as the final five teams in. Only voices in the selection room that demand more quality wins will help Illinois.

Personally, I think both Illinois and Minnesota will make it. They deserve it. They have better resumes than most of the teams hovering on the final cutline. Just E-pinion. Want more E-pinion? Here are my picks for today.

Georgia Tech +9 over Duke, 1 Unit………Betting against Duke never goes well for me. But, we’ll give it a stab here. I think with Favors and Ganal, the Jackets pose problems for Duke. I think this ends up a pretty entertaining game, within single digits.

Richmond +4 over Temple, 1 Unit……I am looking forward to this game. I dont have CBS College, so I havent seen too many A10 games. I do get a loot of Xavier coverage, and I thought they were the best team in the league. So, I’m taking the team, with the points, that beat them yesterday. More than anything, I look forward to see two of the better teams in the land that I really havent seen much of this season.

Minnesota +4 over Ohio State, 1 Unit…..why get off the underdogs in this tournament at this point? First half, second half, whole game, if you’ve been betting the puppies during the Big 10 sectional, you’ve been making money. We’ll ride again today.

 If things go right the Big 10 could be the big winner of the weekend. Before the weekend, the Big 10 looked like a 4-bid league. That’s a disapointment from preseason expectations after seven bids a year ago and performing very well in NCAAs. But now they look like a decent bet to bump up to as many six bids. Anytime you can increase your conference’s bid total by 50-percent during the final weekend of play, you’ve put your mark on March Madness as a league. Illinois impressive effort against Wisconsin and Minnesota exorcising demons over Michign State have set both clubs up for at-large bids that didnt have in their hands heading into the Big 10 sectionals. Are you kidding me with this Minnesota run? No, we’re not, and buckle in your March may get a lot more interesting. The Dagger already claims six bids for the Big 10, saying Minnesota can move to lock status with a win. The ESPN Gameday talking heads all just preached the Gohper Gospel during their last segment saying Minnesota was a tournament team. Hubert Davis said they passed the eye test and Jay Bilas said they deserve to be in the field. Why are the pimping Minnesota? Dont they know their game is on CBS today? I thought ESPN hated the Big 10? Dont tell me Internet Tin Foil Hat Wearers have led my astray. Shocker.

Anyway in the Big 10 semifinals today it sure does seem the Big 10 can put a lockdown on six NCAA bids. Illinois win over the Badgers have finally moved them back into the Bracket Matrix. They’re a Matrix 12-seed, but with 47 votes, they have the fewest amount of votes of any at-large team in that consensus field. Eight of the nine mocks that updated this morning do have them in, so they’re support is rolling fast in the right way. No way they get turned away at the Ball if they beat Ohio State today. The Buckeyes really overmatched Illinois twice this year. But if the Illini can pull a 180 on the Bucks the way they did to Wisconsin five days after the Badgers embarrassed them at home, then they can easily win this game today. They’re seven-point dogs. That intrigues me. Have you noticed how strong the puppies have been barking during this Big 10 sectional? The Underdog is 5-2 ATS. Yesterday, they swept the board and on the first half, second half, final score trifecta, if you will, they were 10-2 ATS. I think that shows that while the league’s cream rose to the top and became elite and the middle class fell short of expectations, there wasnt that big of a gap between those teams when you really break it down. This league was marked by its top four squeaking out wins against the middle of the pack all season long.

Minnesota dropping games in the final minute they had dead to rights against Michigan State and Purdue come to mind. Tuck those games away and not go 1-3 against Indiana and Michigan and the Gohpers are easily in the field right now. In fact, they would have been part of the regular season title chase. But it’s two down in the big 10 finals, but how manhy more to go for the Gophers? Is one enough? Two will give them the automatic bid anyway.  Minnesota exacted a measure of revenge for that first heartbreak and have got themselves back into at-large discussion. If they can exact a second dose today, they will jump into most people’s mock brackets. Bracketville and Bracketology 101 already have them in their field among the mock bracket crowd. These folks have had them in all along and have moved ahead of their final four in group.

So, they Big 10 has a chance to leave its mark on the final bid invites. But, there are plenty of other contenders. There are 13 games today between teams from possible multi-bid leagues. Five games will have direct impact of the bubble, three involve the bid thieves we talked about in an earlier post and the remaining four are, well, frankly, like quality college football bowl games like UK vs Tennessee in the SEC Semifinals or the Big East and Big 12 Championship games. And, there are six championship games, all televised in a row on ESPN2, from one bid leagues. Whoa. Lots of good hoops. Hunker down. Make a sandwich. Crack open some brewdoggers. And, enjoy while,  as we always do, let’s take a look at the bubble games away from the Big 10 today. We’ll have a full on picks post in a little bit.

RHODE ISLAND VS TEMPLE, ATLANTIC 10 SEMIFINALS, 1:00. LINES, Temple -3.5, O/U 127.5

Rhode Island is taking its mulligan and making a run with it. Losses the last two Saturdays to lowly St. Bonaventure and UMass had tripped the Rams from solid bid invite to out of the field heading into the Atlantic 10 Tournament. But a pair of wins including hammering hard charging St. Louis and the corpses from the bubble carnage the last 72 hours have put the Rams right back on the cutline. Next up is Temple and a chance for a resume win against a ranked team on Selection Day Eve. Talk about timing. A win today over 17th ranked Temple in the A10 semifinals  ought to surf them right back into the tournament when its all said and done. In the Matrix, they are second from out with 18 mock votes. But among the nine who have updated this morning, they are in four. They’ve gone from just above 20-percent support to 45-percent if the recent polling holds form across the board. They could reach majority status with a beatdown of the Owls today.But dont expect the Owls to mail it in and look past Rhode Island. The Rams promise to match the Owls signature intensity. With an at-large bid in the Atlantic City gift bag, I would be disappointed if they didnt.

MISSISSIPPI STATE VS VANDERBILT, SEC SEMIFINALS, 3:30, ABC. LINES, VANDY -2, O/U 141.4

Is Mississippi State a Bid Thief or a legit at-large candidate. To be honest, I dont really know. They’re still way back on the rail, with just a lone mock vote, not good enough to even qualify among the final eight cut from the field. But they’re beginning to close like a bullet. They got a big win over the Gators last night in a game they pretty much controlled from the opening tap. The Gators hardly rolled over and died, but the Bulldogs had an answer for every second half run Florida threw at them. So, did that help their cause in the very most recent up-to-date Bracket Matrix exit poll? The esteemed Bracketology’s 101′s bracket this morning lists Mississippi State as second from-last-out of the field, just behind last cut Rhode Island. The Bulldogs and Rams  are the only two teams in their field that conceivably could play themselves into am at-large bid. As for the Bulldogs:, their conventional wisdom says a win today by MSU over Vandy would warrant a bid, while it’s Florida fans who should worry the most in the event that happens. Interesting. I think Ole Miss, which remains in the MAtrix as a 13-seed with 51 votes has already left a vacated space for someone like their state rivals from Starkville to have. All told, we have nine mocks updated this morning and the Bulldogs have moved themselves into the brink of just about every one. The consensus this morning is the Bulldogs will crash the dance if they win. The Rebels, meanwhile, were hanging on just just fields. That’s 57-percent support down to 22-percent. Three games in a row and six of the last eight with Vandy have been decided by seven or less points. It’s been a tight series with the dog covering five of eight games the last six seasons. The Bulldogs lost in Nashville, but covered a 5.5-point dogs, in the only game this between the two back in January. Vanderbilt’s offense vs Mississippi’s defense and their defensive player-of-the-year. A spot in the SEC Finals and, perhaps for MSU, a bid in the tournament are on the line.

WASHINGTON VS CAL, PAC 10 CHAMPIONSHIP, 6:00, CBS. LINES, CAL -2, O/U 151.5

Washington stated its case last night by thumping Stanford from opening tap to final buzzer. Cal comes into the game after ending UCLA’s season. They were the regular season champ and staring at something like an eighth or ninth seed in the NCAAs. Washington can make the at large discussion a dead issue by beating Cal today in the Pac 10 finals. But what if they cant get by the Golden Bears? Do they snag an at-large bid and keep the Pac 10 from the ignoble fate of being a one-bid league. As always, lets peer into the Bracket Matrix for guidance on that question. They are currently part of the consensus field, albeit as just as 13-seed with 59 out of 79 mock votes. The good news is that eight of nine that have posted updates this morning have the Huskies part of their field. The bad news is they are no better than final one or two teams kept in the field. A loss and some bad results on the out of town scoreboard could put UW in the NIT and make the Pac-10′s one bid power no stronger than that of the Big West.

SAN DIEGO STATE VS UNLV, MOUNTAIN WEST CHAMPIONSHIP, 7:00, VERSUS. LINES, SDSU +4.5, O/U 130

When you’re a Matrix 12-seed, under at-large consideration, with over 90-percent support from the mock bracketology crowd, and you beat a top-10 team to advance to your league sectional, it’s safe to say you’ve made a strong statement about going from the bubble to being a lock for the field. No team had as an impressive a win on the bubble in the last 48 hours than the Aztecs spearing of New Mexico last night in the MWC semifinals. In dishing the Lobos its first defeat in over two months, the Aztecs had one of their best nights shooting the trey with 19 bombs, shot the ball overall at a 52-percent clip, and Billy White and Kawhi Leonard were studs. White led all scorers with career-high 28 points on 11-14 shooting and Leonard had a double-double with 15 points and 12 boards, the only player with double digit rebounds. Along with Malcom Thomas, the three forwards are the top-3 scorers this season for the Aztecs and go 6/7, 6/8, 6/9 across the board. Active, big and skillful up front, the Aztecs have been chugging along towards a bid all conference season. Since mid-January, the only teams to beat SDSU are currently ranked in the top-15.  The Aztecs just beat their highest ranked foe in over 20 years. They have two wins now over the top-10 Lobos. Is the win over the Lobos enough for a fourth bid from the MWC? Believe it. It looks like it might fall that way. Seventy-three mocks have them in their field and virtually all of those votes were tallied before last night’s results. This team is a lock, yes? Probably. Maybe. I”d plunk money on it. But, with bid thieves lurking and plenty of teams hovering around the cutline with the Aztecs are still playing this weekend with a chance to make better overall statements that SDSU, Aztecs fans cant book it just yet. What if they lose and both Minnesota and Illinois add a second win over top-10 teams in as many days today? The Gophers and Illini are coming out of stronger conferences and have much better non-league resumes than the Aztecs. And, that’s just one deabate situation just off the top of my head. Here’s another one: UW wins the Pac 10, the Illini and Gophers win and one of the bid thieves completes a successful heist. If the Aztecs lose today, do they keep their spot against those hard charging insurgents? I dont know, but let the fascinating debates begin. The Aztecs can remove themselves from this debate by taking care of business today in the MWC Championship game against UNLV. That would net them the automatic bid, guarantee the league a fourth bid and would end all bubbles talk in style. If anything, it will be fascinating to watch Steve Fisher try to coax this weekend to a championship conclusion. He’s been one of the best March coaches over the last 21 years and he’s got another team working on a run. Watching them the last two nights survive a scare against and win by a point over CSU and then go toe to toe in a tight victory over a top-10 team really has taken me back to some of those exciting, every game was close regardless of foe, tournament runs he had with the Michigan Wolverines. Today, they take on UNLV for the title after the Rebels dispatched BYU in the other semifinal. It was another classic in the UNLV/BYU rivalry.  Fans wanted to see a BYU/New Mexico in this game, but this isnt a bad game. The Rebels are a deep team with 11 guys in the rotation getting anywhere from 28 to 11 minutes of run. They’re smallish compared to SDSU. SIx of their top seven scorers are perimeter players. No frontcourt player gets more than 14 minutes of court time a game. But, two of their guards including Chace Stanback, are very tall for their position. Stanback is 6/8 is trhe team’s leading scorer and remarkably leads the team in rebounds, steals and blocks. UNLV also home court advantage tonight as the tournament is being played at the Thomas & Mack Center. The Rebels appear to be tournament locks and are a 10-seed in the Bracket Matrix. One team today can rest easy with a ticket punched. The loser will have to sweat out the next 24 hours and hope the scoreboard watching goes their way. Both teams are among the better defensive outfits in the land. But, both are also among the best shooting teams in the land. Two good shooting offenses and defenses will be battling for  league championship. With Fisher and UNLV Coach Lon Kruger we have two coaching personalities who have been making March statements for over two decades. And bubble arguments will swirl with the outcome. Sounds like something worth watching.

I am just going to end this post by pointing out the single unit plays I made on the early semifinal games. I tweeted them. I’ll have a picks post for the rest of the games in the next hour.

Vols +5 over UK

Temple -2 (-140) over URI

Illinois +7.5 over OSU

FLORIDA VS MISSISSIPPI ST

Does this amount to an SEC playoff game for one of the final spots in the field? A win over the Gators gives the Bulldogs an excellent shot at grabbing a bid, despite thier rather low placement and single vote in the current Bracket Matrix. Add in a win tomorrow and its a lock. They have no shot if they lose tonight. As for the Gators, they might not be safe after all. Somebody’s got to get left out of the field. If everyone else on the bubble continues to win–like the did this afternoon–and this ends up as a Gator loss, they’ll have to sweat it. Here’s how to guage if the Gators are in trouble. Since its the only head-to-head bubble game, let’s say if the Gators are the only bubble team to lose tonight, then it’s time to worry. Double it for each one of them that goes one to win tomorrow.

Dayton vs Xavier

Dayton needs this win to jump back into bubble discussion. A Flyer win wont clinch a bid, but it demands them a place right in the middle of the final debate. And, they would get another chance tomorrow to put another good result on the board. An A10 finalist Flyer squad would be hard to keep out especially if it comes with wins over Xavier and Richmond. Despite just three votes in the Bracket Matrix, the odds arent stacked against the Flyers in this field or for getting a tournament bid. Dayont blew out Xavier at home and lost a nailbiter to them on the road. No reason to think they’re overmatched. I think the Flyers are capable of tightening this bubble by getting hot the next couple of days. This a bigtime rivalry game. There is a ton at stake. It’s worth pointing out this is a moot point in a 96-team field. Dayton would be in that field win or lose. Instead, they have to win one, maybe two playoff games just to get to the real playoffs. Who needs drama like that?

MINNESOTA VS MICHIGAN ST

When these teams played last, the Gophers controlled the game for 39 minutes, often dominating the action. But the Spartans came back and won it on a Kailon Lucas jumper at the buzzer. Boy are the Gophers paying for that loss today. Reverse the outcome and Minnesota’s position on the bubble is so much stronger that I’m pretty sure this would be a play-in game. The bubble losses the last couple of days, including Virginia Tech’s loss earlier, might end up making this a play-in game as well. As it stands, I think the Gophers need to spring the upset here and then advance tomorrow. Like Dayton, I think Big 10 finalist Minnesota will be tough to keep out. The Gophers have a better chance than Dayton and getting in with just a win tonight, but it would be far from a lock. Losses by the west coast bubble teams later tonight will go a long way in determining what other kind of work any of the fringe bubble teams will have to do the rest of the way. So to that end……..

SAN DIEGO ST VS NEW MEXICO

This is a huge game. The Aztecs, without anyone really noticing has put themselves in tremendous position for an at large bid. SDSU is 23-8 overall, 11-3 in their last 14 games, and the only losses they’ve had since January 13th are to teams currently ranked in the top-15. Steve Fisher’s team is tough to score against, can harass you into terrible shooting nights, are monster rebounders, cant make or defense the three ball and are terrible free throw shooters. What else do you need to know? Tonight they get a chance to avenge one of those top end losses when they play 8th ranked New Mexico in the MWC semifinals. The Aztecs are a 12-seed in the Matrix with 68 of 80 votes. You have to think a win here locks up a bid. Even if it doesnt, it will still advance them to a championship game where they can formally squash the question altogether. Despite getting 68 of 80 votes, I dont think they’re a good bet to make it if they lose this one. They dont have anything of note on their out of conference resume, unless you count losses to St. Mary’s, Pacific and Arizona State. I dont think the selection committee will give much discussion to the fourth place MWC team that doesnt play beyond its seed in the section and has no marquee non league wins. It will open the door for bubble teams like Illinois, Rhode Island and the winners tonight to pass them, if they dont already by virtue of their own wins today. Meanwhile, there’s some compelling seeding drama for New Mexico as they, along with BYU, are bucking for excellent regional quality seeds in the Tournament. Losses in advance of the final could really move them down the seed line.

STANFORD VS WASHINGTON

Washington lost a bit last night with Arizona State lost. It was looking like a bubble playoff game. Now you have to wonder if Washington will get the requisite juice they need should they merely beat Stanford this evening. They’re in the Matrix now as a 12 seed with 51 votes. Can they hold on even if they win. I dont think so. Certainly the bubble teams that win today can pass the Huskies in the pecking order if they add wins on Saturday and UW doesnt. They’re cooked if they lose, but not in the clear if they win. Illinois is behind them now. But will they still be when factoring in today’s results? How about if Illinois adds a win over OSU tomorrow and UW goes down to Cal? To me, that’s certainly advantage Illinois. In both cases, frankly. But, they’re contenders. And maybe they can pass Virginia Tech by winning tonight. Or SDSU if the Aztecs lose. So, its not the matchup those of us who love the most bubble drama possible wanted tonight, but it still has bigtime implications. And anytime it involves a UW hoops team coming through in the clutch, who knows what will happen. That’s worth tuning in for right there.

In addition to all that, we have killer semifinal games in the Big East , Big 12, other big league quarterfinal games, not to mention semifinal action in about a half dozen one-bid leagues from Conference USA, MAC, Big West, WAC, MEAC and the SWAC.  There wont be a day left to go with this many games on the board tonight. So, yeah, onto the investment opportunities.

Northwestern +9 over Purdue, 1 Unit……always like this team catching points. They’re 18-9 ATS this season. They’ve matched up with Purdue very well the last two seasons. Still not sure about the Boilermaker Bandwagon in the wake of the Hummel injury. Can they handle being heavy chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. against a team thats given so many recent fits? I’m risking a unit that they anwser is No.

Texas A/M +9.5 over Kansas, 1 Unit……The last time the Aggies failed to cover the spread it was January 27th. They played the Jayhawks to the end in their only matchup of the season. And the Aggies are 8-3ATS  as underdogs this season and 22-11 during Mark Turgeon’s tenure in College Station. I dont care what the Jawhawks are ranked, I like all those numbers and want some Aggie action.

Florida +2 (+120) over Mississippi State, 1 Unit……in the three SEC East vs SEC West coin flip games during this draw, the East is now 2-1. We’ve been with the Easterners every step of the way. We’d be letting you down if we didnt see this through and jumped on the fourth ride. Go Gators. End the Bulldogs hope. Leave no doubt about your bid. Do it. Please dont make me regret backing you in a big spot. I beg you. Oh, and watch out for that Varnardo dude.

Marquette +4 (-115) over Georgetown, 1 Unit…..If you’re offering Marquette as an underdog, we’re buying. Wait, what, you are? Sold! Between A/m, Northwestern and Marquette, we have three teams who are a combined 33-11 when catching points this season. I like our chances at coming out ahead between those three teams.

Minnesota +4 over Michigan State, 1 Unit…..what can I say? It’s going to be a dog day at the Big 10 Tournament. And when Gus is on the call, always take the puppy.

New Mexico -1 (-120) over San Diego State, 1 Unit…..I dont buy MWC depth beyond the top two teams really. The off and on again reliable eye test tells me BYU and UNLV are really better than anyone else. Both take care of business tonight to set up a real fun final game.

BYU -1 over UNLV, 1 Unit…..Uh, Ditto.

Notre Dame +5 over West Virginia, 1 Unit……they’re playing too well to fade as an underdog right now. I dont think this game ends with more than a single possession difference either way. I mean, at this point would you be shocked at a Marquette/Notre Dame final? I wouldnt and I am taking the points in both games knowing that chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. has been getting woodshedded during the entire Big East sectional.

Baylor +2 over Kansas State, 1 Unit….two of my favorite teams to watch. I just feel Baylor is the better team. And they’ve been so good to the blog here in the last week that we’ll take them out for a single unit drive tonight.  They’re not shabby puppies themselves with a 5-2 mark catching points. The Bears are 16-8 ATS since Thanksgiving Day. I know KSU beat them by two points back in January in Waco, but Baylor is playing better now than they were then.

Wow. Thats a lot of picks. I’d be lying if I said I was tempted to add even more. I mean there’s 2 MAC and ACC games that i dont have action. BOO BE A DEGENERATE BETTER!!!!

(College Hoops Record: 93-74-4, +21 Units….including this afternoon’s 3-2, +0.8 Unit result. Stupid Hokies. Dumbed me for spending all that extra juice!!)

The day starts with quarterfinal games in the Big 10, ACC, SEC and Atlantic 10. The first quartet of games all involve the tops seeds in those sectionals. Games like Temple/St. Bonaventure, Duke/Virginia, Kentucky/Alabama and Ohio State/Michigan dont have much impact on the bubble. The underdogs are facing elimination and all need to win the autmatic bid to stay alive for next weekend. The top-seeded chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. needs to fight the quirky motivational issues that crop up during league sectionals. And, perhaps, need to win to avoid the ‘no team who loses their first league tournament game has even gone on the win the national championship’ curse. Final Four contenders Syracuse and Villanova will be testing that theory out beginning next week. Will any of these top-seeds join them in their experiment to buck history?

Obviously, the game I will be keeping an eye of those four is the Michigan-Ohio State contest. Nothing like a bitter rivalry to hopefully add spice to the first set of games that otherwise look pretty ‘meh.’ The Wolverines beat OSU in early January, but Evan Turner was still out of the lineup with an injury. In the rematch in Columbus in late February, Michigan took a one-point halftime lead, but the Buckeyes ran them off the floor in the second half. I’m pretty confident the Wolverines can play for 30-35 minutes with the Buckeyes. I am worried about the 5-10 minute stretch where everything falls apart and Michigan goes on their patened scoring drought. Can they minimize that? They’re going to have to if they want to be in this during the closing minutes. It’s going to take an impressive effort to keep their season alive against the Buckeyes.

The heavy action takes place in the four games immediately after those top-seeds play. All four of the 4/5 games this afternoon in those quarterfinals have major bubble impacts. In fact the last great bubble push of the season may take from 2:00-5:00 this afternoon as those games play out. Like I said, skip work because we have some college basketball playoff games on the schedule. Here’s a quick look at them, with picks following.

Illinois vs Wisconsin

 Ok, Illinois. Take Two! This time really mean it. It’s your last chance. What’s worse? Wisconsin crushing you in front of your home crowd putting your tournament hopes in jeopardy? Or finding out that Cirque Du Soleil will keep you from hosting an NIT game? Luckily,the Illini can wash away the lingering bad taste from Sunday by taking the season rubber match with the Badgers in the 4/5 game of the Big 10 Tournament. It’s the second quarterfinal of the day on Friday. The Illini are the last team cut from the Matrix consensus, with 35 total votes. That’s 16 less than the final at-large team in the field right now–Ole Miss. The Illini’s support is pretty consistent. With 35 of 80 total mock votes, they’re just under 50 percent for the whole Matrix. But, 47 mocks have updated since Wednesday, and the Illini are in 22 of those brackets, again just under 50-percent. They can make a major jump with a second win of the season over the Badgers. The Illini have plenty of impressive wins and plenty of shaky losses. They need to pin one of the former up on the wall during this sectional to make the Field of 65.  This is as close to a play-in game as you can get. Lot of folks will be cheering for the Badgers out there in Bubble Land. It’s going to be a challenge for the Illini. The Badgers have Jon Leuer back in the lineup. I want to continue to send a message this weekend that they’re a legit contender now that they’re back at full strength.

Ole Miss vs Tennessee

Speaking of the last team in the Matrix field, ladies and gentlemen your Ole Miss Rebels. They are a Matrix 13-seed and have 51 mock votes, a shade below Washington and Memphis, although the latter is currently hemorraging support in the wake of yesterday’s defeat. Eleven mocks have updated to include yesterday’s results and none include the Memphis Tigers. But enough about them, let’s talk Ole Miss Rebels. So the Rebels are the last team in the field and the Illini the first team cut, per the Matrix at least. Interestingly, both are underdogs today and playing teams that are Sweet 16 contenders and darkhorse Final Four candidates. Translation? The bubble damage could continue this afternoon. Local bloggers might not buy the Rebels as darkhorse contenders for the SEC Sectional, but they are a win over the Vols from all but clinching a spot in the final Field of 65. The Vols, meanwhile,  are playing to improve their seed. Currently a Matrix 4-seed, the Vols could climb the charts with an inspired run through the SEC field. They engaged in heavy sleepwalking yesterday in dispatching of last-place LSU in the first round. They better be more awake today playing a desperate Rebel team in play-in mode. Should be a fantastic game.

Miami vs Va Tech

It’s ACC Quarterfinal Day, and there’s an NCAA bid on the line in today’s second game. Virginia Tech got a bit of a raw deal when 12th seed Miami upset humiliated Wake Forest yesterday. Conventional wisdown held that the Hokies, despite a really good ACC season, was still a win away from the field. Preferable a resume win. They would have had that with the Deacons as their foe today. Not so much with the Canes. Before I started believing the Hokies might need two wins this weekend on account of getting no credit for a possible win over the Canes, the bubble blow-ups happened yesterday. There’s more cushion now between the Hokies and the final cutline. Not enough to survive and one-and-done today, but enough where a win would clinch a bid. It’s been a roller coaster ride the last couple of years in Hokie land. Losing heartbreaker after heartbreakers in ACC play, coming up a win shy of the final field in each of the last two years. Now, they stand a win away against the last place team in the ACC from returning to the NCAAs for the first time since 2007.  Want an optimistic stat for the Hokies? Try the fact they’ve won 10 straight tournament openers.

St. Louis vs Rhode Island

Of the four bubble games going on during this time window, this is the only one where both teams are battling on the bubble. Both teams have benefitted from all the bubble blood spilled in recent days. We’ve had six teams either just in, or just out of the consensus Matrix lose their last time out, with only Wichita’s defeat in the MVC finals not being done under one-and-done circumstances. That opens the door for old contenders that have fallen, like URI, new contenders to charge up from nowhere, like St. Louis, and upstart conferences to add an extra bid to their coffers, like the Atlantic 10. I dont know if this is a pure play-in game. The Rams might get in with just one more win. They’re third-from-out of the Matrix with 13 votes of 80. That’s just 16-percent support. But, three of the 11 mocks that updated already today have them, bumping their support in the most recent exit poll up to 27-percent. We’re less than 60 hours away from the selection, this is the time to see your support increase, even if it looks meager like it does for the Rams. They lost their chance to position themselves for a bid when they they were upset over the weekend by UMass. They’ve been granted a mulligan. Only now they have to play the dangerous Bilikens in this quarterfinal game. Even though they arent getting a single mock vote right now, I think these guys are contenders for an at-large bid. Personally, I feel they have a better resume right now than URI or Dayton, league brethern currently among the final eight left of the field. One of the more accurate bracketologists in recent years already has elevated St. Louis to seventh-from-last out, so its not they’re getting no buzz at all. I believe, especially if we get a couple more bubble wounds today, that the Bilikens will be in the field if they win today and tomorrow against top seeded Temple in the semifinals. They’re 16-7 since December 5th and 12-4 ATS against the A10 this season. Today will be a battle of contrasts between the 32nd ranked scoring offense of URI and the 13th ranked scoring defense of St. Louis.

Picks? Picks!

It’s going to get crazy the next 48 hours. Try to keep up and not pass out. We’re playing with house money and there are tournaments all over the place to gamble on. Yesterday, we went 4-4, but thanks to going 2-0 on our double plays found a way to make some profit. Winning all three late night picks helped, too. Can Baylor play Texas again? Thanks, please.  I’ll do my afternoon picks in this post. Look for another Bubble News/Picks post for the night games up around 5:00. Good luck and enjoy the games.

Michigan +9 (-115) over Ohio State, 1 Unit……Screw the Buckeyes. Wolverines will go down fighting. The football team covered in their closer against OSU, why not the hoops team. Ok, I am stretching things a bit. But, I hate top seeded in the big boy league tournaments. I’ll take a stab with the hometown Wolverines in this one. Watch as the other three top seeds lose and the Bucks roll. I’d like to think the Wolverines can stay within single digits. And, I have enough house money where risking a unit on them doing so doesnt seem all that ludicrious. Besides, I need some noon action or I’ll get the shakes.

Illinois +8.5 over Wisconsin, 1 Unit…..I’ll always take the big underdog playing for an at-large bid over a favorite in these league tournaments. Really, though, who knows about this game. Illinois kills Wisco in Madison. The BAdger return the favor by thumping the Illini in Chambana. Here’s hoping we finally get a nip and tuck game in the rubber match on a nuetral floor.

Tennessee -2 over Ole Miss, 1 Unit……wait, arent I contradicting myself with this pick. Isnt Ole Miss playing for a bid? Yes, but the Vols arent a heavy favorite either. I think they have more talent and the better team. Both teams are in the top-20 percent in the nation in offensive categories. But only the Vols have comparable numbers on defense. It seems like in the last week, every time I’ve taken offense over defense, I’ve had my clock cleaned. Not today. The D of the Vols gets them enough stops to win  in what otherwise will be an offensive display.

St. Louis +3 over Rhode Island, 1 Unit…….I think the Billikens are the better team overall and come in playing better than the Rams. Again, I’m siding with the defensive team in this one. Rick Majerus will turn this game ugly, the Rams cant play the slow down style. They’ll get frustrated and the Bilikens will ease by by a 61-56 win to keep their surprising charge to a bid alive for another day.

Virginia Tech on the moneyline (-180) to beat Miami, 1.8 Units to win 1 Unit……ok, color me yellow for playing a steep moneyline. But, I have complete confidence the Hokies will win. I have no idea if they will do it by less or more than 4 points. Fact is, all their games are close and taking the chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. in Va Tech games is not wise. Close to 40-percent of the games Greenberg has coached at Tech have been decided by 5 or less points. You can see why either a 3-point or a 5-point Hokies win wouldnt be a shocking outcome. Again, I think they win. I dont care about margin. And, I wont lie. It’s a bit of a Homer pick. I’m a big fan of Hokie athletics and I am sure they will get this win today. Book It.

So, is playing five of the eight games crazy? Yes it is. I warned you to hang on. Just wait until tonight.