Bubble News

Bubble News: What To Watch Wednesday Edition

February 2, 2011
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We have a nice give and take here at the JCB. Chitownblue undresses a team and its coach, thereby firing them up. While I plug and promote a team, thereby jinxing them. That’s my explanation for the Penn State debacle yesterday as the Illini smoked the Nittany Lions. What’s worse is the physical damage the JCB jinx did as Nittany Lion forward Jeff Brooks left with a possible dislocated shoulder. His play had helped spur this Penn State turnaround that had them the talk of Bubble Town. The Bracket Matrix is all but fully updated as more mocks posted yesterday afternoon. The final tally for Penn State was 25 out of 53 mock brackets having them in the field before the game last night. That still keeps them the last team cut from the comprehensive Matrix, six votes behind Witchita State, the final at large team seeded. We’ll see how much support they have a week from now. They need to bounce back at home on Sunday and beat Michigan, but Brooks questionable availability gives the Lions, who basically just play their starting five, a huge hole to fill. We’ll see how they respond Sunday, with or without him. But, if he’s out, then this Nittany Lion Renaissance may already be over.

As for the rest of the comprehensive Bracket Matrix, it continues to have a major mid-major feel to it on both sides of the bubble. The final four at large seeds to make the current Matrix are all from your non-traditional power leagues: Wichita State, Virginia Commonwealth, Richmond and George Mason. On the outside looking in near the immediate cutline are more mid-majors. The four teams on the cutline right behind the last cut Nittany Lions are Gonzaga, Duquense, Butler and UAB.  It’s a mid-major party on the bubble as February starts. It will be interesting to see how many of these teams can remain strong bid contenders and which power conference teams come out of nowhere and make a run this month. There’s a big night of hoops ahead of us this evening. Here’s a quick rundown of the games to keep an eye on.

Marquette at Villanova…..How much was Marquette’s win over Syracuse worth over the weekend? They Golden Eagles saw their vote total rise from 42 to 51–one shy of unanimous–and they jumped from a projected 11-seed up to the 9-seed line. Obviously losing tonight on the road to Villanova wont put them in any real danger of losing that support. For tonight, they are playing with house money as the seek a road resume win. Like almost every Big East game this season, including the one between contenders UConn and Syracuse, this game should be a fun one.

Nebraska at Kansas State……..two teams headed in opposite directions meet in the Little Apple. The Wildcats, a preseason top-5 team that was considered a contender for a top seed when the season began, is hanging on for dear life with just 28 mock bracket votes. Its good enough to be an 11-seed in the current Matrix, but they’ve been plummeting for a month now and cant afford a home loss in games like this if they want to stay afloat. As for Nebraska, they have done a complete turnaround from a year ago. They’re 15-5 and thanks to last weekend’s win over Texas A/M has gained some steam among the mock crowd with seven votes right now after having just one a week ago. A road game against KSU and hosting Kansas this weekend give the Huskers a perfect stage to earn a lot more votes a week from now.

Mississippi St at Alabama/Georgia at Arkansas…….I dont know what to make of the SEC, perhaps most especially these four teams playing each other tonight. Arkansas had an impressive win at Vanderbilt over the weekend, but it didnt do them a ton of favors among the mock crowd, netting just two total votes. A second straight win over a current Matrix team would be more momentum that would be tougher to ignore. Georgia is struggling and while they’re still a near unanimous selection, they’ve fallen to the 10-line. Who knows which Hog or which Dawg team will show up tonight? Alabama, meanwhile, saw their support spike this week, coming really out of nowhere, with no outstanding result over the weekend, pushing them to 14 total mock votes, good for sixth-from-last cut from the field. One theory is laziness as some bloggers just vote whoever is in first place and, well, the Tide do have the SEC’s best conference mark at this point. For whatever that’s worth. Their opponent tonight might be primed for a late season surge, now that Dee Bost is back in the fold after missing the first half of the season with NCAA eligibility issues. Right now, they’re a long way from an at large bid and it might even be an impossible road anyway at this point. But, dont sleep on them as a March darkhorse given their run to SEC Tournament Championship two years ago and their return to the finals last year. Regardless, when it comes to these four teams, I can see a future when none of them are announced on Selection Sunday a lot easier than I can see one where more than one of them gets called. Read more »

Bubble News: Penn State To The Cusp Edition

February 1, 2011
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One week and two wins after calling them perhaps the last hope for the Big 10 to earn seven bids into the NCAA Tournament, the Penn State Nittany Lions were one of the biggest movers up the chart as the latest updated mock brackets pour in.  The Nittany Lions are not in the consensus Bracket Matrix tournament field just yet, but a surge of votes in their favor has them currently sitting right on the cut line, as the last team cut from the current day bracket projections. After just three votes among the mock bracketology crowd last week, Penn State parlayed their big win over Wisconsin into 19 mock votes as the Matrix currently stands this morning. While that’s still less than 40 percent support, its worth noting that 18 of 34 mocks who updated yesterday–exactly half–took a look at the Nittany Lions and decided that yes if the season ended today, this is an NCAA Tournament team. 

Not bad for a team that had zero important non-conference wins, lost at home to Maine and began January by losing to Michigan. It’s been an amazing three weeks for the club as they’ve taken down Michigan State, Illinois and Wisconsin at home and lost at Ohio State and at Purdue by a combined four points. During the toughest stretch of their slate to date, they’re 4-2 straight up, 6-0 ATS. While I doubt the mocks are putting any stock in the moneymaking aspect of their January run, the Lions play has demanded that the crowd at least take notice. And with a soft and expanded bubble, the Lions results in the second toughest conference in the land are speaking a lot louder than any hole on their resume from out of conference play.

Where the Nittany Lions remain on the outside looking in they’re among the last four cut from the field per Joe Lunardi’s Bracket at ESPN, while another states the Lions still have work to do by placing them in their ‘decent resume, but not good enough’ group. Among those voting in favor of the Nittany Lions, they are across the board making them a double digit seed. They as low as a 13-seed in some mocks, but for the most part are either an 11- or 12-seed. Bracket Watch responded to the Super Headache that is trying to sort out a new field right now by adding 14 new teams to his field, half of which were new at-large invitees, including Penn State as an 11-seed. Three bracketologists have them as high as a 10-seed, notably Bracketology 101. Penn State was one of two new arrivals into his field, with Duquense being the other one. They highlight Penn State’s league scalps as evidence that Penn State is worthy of inclusion.

The Nittany Lions have eight losses and a tough road schedule left, but they now have three quality wins in conference, which is good enough – for the moment – to get a bid.

Some commentators at that blog questioned Penn State’s addition to the field, especially at the exclusion of a Maryland team that thumped the Nittany Lions by 30 points two months ago in the Big10/ACC Challenge. The resident bracketologist addressed those concerns head on in the comment section: Read more »

Bubble News: Final Day Of January Edition

January 31, 2011
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The storyline this weekend from the college hoops world was the fact that 13 ranked teams lost games. That’s an impressive number. And more than half the poll. What’s not getting quite as much attention is that a similar losing fate befell teams hovering near the ever developing bubble.  Per the Bracket Matrix, at least as it stood prior to the weekend, five double digit seed teams, all at large projections, lost over the weekend.  As did the 5th, 6th and 7th from last team cut. Of course, the carnage up in the polls, nor down at the bubble should really come as a shock. As for the ranked teams going down, all but one lost on the road, and away games in rival buildings during conference play pretty much ensures we get a couple weekends like this during the year. It’s not easy winning on the road these days, regardless of who you are. As for the bubble? It’s to be expected this time of year. In January, it seems like those last bubble spots in the consensus Bracket Matrix are like goalies on a house league youth hockey team. They rotate differently every week.  Translation? Expect anywhere from 3-5 new teams to appear in the consensus Matrix when its fully updated over the next 24 hours. And a whole new pecking order line of the first group on the outside looking in.

One team that probably wont be in new Bracket Matrix is last year’s national runner up.  The Butler Bulldogs dropped another Horizon League game over the weekend, best by a balanced, effecient Valporaiso squad.  Its the Bulldogs fourth league loss this season after absorbing just eight league losses in the four previous seasons combined. There is understandable anxiety among the Butler faithful as the Bulldogs may have already played themselves into a ‘win the Horizon Tournament or else’ corner.  Butler was a Matrix 12-seed heading into the weekend, with 37 of 49 mocks putting them in the field. Obviously, the Bulldogs will fall out of the Matrix after the next straw poll, but I will predict the Bulldogs will lose almost all of their support. They’re going to have a hard time staying within the final eight cut from the field.   Their departure from the consensus will lead to a new at large team as headed into the weekend, the Horizon League has two teams in the field with Cleveland State sharing a spot on the 12-line with Butler. Both had widespread support with more than 30 votes apiece among the 49 pollsters. More than half, a total of 25 mocksters placed both in the field. I think Butler will lose a ton of support from that crowd and those votes will likely be spread among a cast of characters of early at large entrants from across the country. Their we 13 voters that just had Butler on their bracket, basically giving the Horizon champ their only vote. Those voters cant keep putting Butler in the field, can they? Look for those votes to be split between Cleveland State, who will obviously remain in the Matrix consensus field, and Valparaiso, whose might collect enough to put them inside and the final eight cut and fringe bubble territory. I dont know what thats worth as I dont think Valpo is a true at large candidate, but their run to the Horizon crown in just their fourth year since ‘promotion’ from the Mid-Continent–now the Summit–is one of the more fun mid-major stories of the winter.

Getting back to the patient at hand, however. So Butler, WHATS YOUR DEAL?!?! As the tempo free numbers indicate, the Bulldogs are just another player in the Horizon League among a group of players a step behind the lead pack. The falloff has been on the defensive end where Butler has gone from the 5th best defense a year ago according to KenPom to 138th this year. They dont force turnovers like a year ago, not can they guard teams without sending them to the line like a year ago. On the defensive ledger, they’ve fallen from 68th in eFG%, 60th in 3% and 108th in 2% to 171th, 109th, 228nd in those categories this season. In two of those comparisons the dropoff goes from top-20 percent of the country to bottom half or worse. They miss the defense of William Veasley. He gave them 31 minutes of elite collegiate defense on the perimeter a year ago. Shawn Vanzant and Zach Hahn have more than made up for Veasley’s offense, but their extended minutes on the floor as opposed to a year ago have made Butler weaker on defense. Of course, Butler’s ability to just rollout a mid-major power every year might be comprised when its star player leaves after his sophomore year as Gordon Hayward did. That’s not only a rare loss for Butler, but a premature one as far its Butler Way blueprint is mapped out. Keep that in mind when pondering Butler’s troubles this year. But getting back to their defensive decline. With an easier combination to solve, these good Horizon League offenses have been making Butler pay for it. The Bulldogs are sixth in the league in conference play in opponents points per possesion, up to 1.04 after a 0.92 mark a year ago. In their four league losses this season, the Bulldogs have allowed 74 points per game. The Bulldogs didnt allow more than 69 points in a Horizon League game a year ago.

Against Valpo, the Bulldogs struggled to get stops. The Crusaders shot 51.9 percent from the field and bagged 10 treys. They had four guys score at least 15 points and each one of them was able to get and make his shot it seemed whenever Valpo needed to answer with a bucket.  The upshot for the Crusaders is the win puts them in major contention to win its first league crown in just its fourth year since its ‘promotion’ from the Mid-Continent/Summit Conference. The upshot for Butler is near flat line at large hopes. They embark on their Northeast Ohio trip this week. They shouldnt have any trouble with Youngstown State, although the Penguins did pop off for 81 points in their loss to the Bulldogs earlier in the year. Playing at Cleveland State on Saturday will be a different story. The Bulldogs took care of the Vikes four weeks ago in a game that we thought might have pushed the Bulldogs around the corner after a rocky first two months. Almost a month later, its rematch time and the Bulldogs are argubaly farther away from making that turn. They’re still losing league games and their defensive problems havent been fixed. No reason to think that Cleveland State’s offense, like Valpo’s in their home court revenge rematch, cant shake loose and put another loss on Butler’s resume.

Will Gonzaga be joining them on the outside looking in? I think they might be, courtesy of this Mikey McConnell dagger that saw the Gaels win in Spokane for the first time years. St Mary’s late game heroics buried Gonzaga last Thursday may have put the Zags them on the wrong side of the bubble. Twenty of 34 mocks who supported them last week still seeded them 12th or worse. Eleven mocks have updated since their loss to the Gaels, and only two keep Gonzaga in their field. If those percentages maintain as the rest of the mocks come in, the Zags will be on the outside looking in heading in February. Teams typically dont hold on to their spot according to the jury of bracketologists after losing a marquee home game when clinging to an at large spot like that. I wonder how many of the 34 folks who slot both St. Mary’s and Gonzaga will keep two WCC teams in the field? I think the number shrinks to single digit and the Zags will bear the brunt of all the attrition. I dont think a home rout of last place San Diego registered any dent to folks who had doubts about putting Gonzaga on one of their final bracket slots during the upcoming vote. The Zags do have some immediate remedies this week. A road game at Portland, who just thumped that same St. Mary’s squad over the weekend, and a home game next Saturday night against Memphis. With a 2-0 week, they could re-energize any support they lost this week and maybe put them back  on the right side of the bubble just in time for the home stretch. Read more »

Bubble News: What To Watch Wednesday

January 26, 2011
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There was a lot of blood spilled on the early developing bubble stage this weekend. Per the Bracket Matrix, four consensus at large bids on the 12 line lost. As did an 11 seed, a 10 seed  and three of the top eight teams on the outside looking. The goalposts near the cut line were shifted as bracketologists weighed the weekend’s results. As the latest straw poll results came pouring in teams like Colorado, Central Florida and Miami faded from prime spots and out of the bracket, replaced by Memphis, UCLA and Virginia Commonwealth. The blood letting continued on both edges of the bubbles last night with losses by Georgia, a consensus 9-seed, Virginia Tech, an 11-seed, Marquette, an 11-seed and Colorado and Dayton, the seventh and eighth-to-last teams out of the Bracket Matrix. Obviously, since its still January, this whole shibang remains a fluid situation. As we move closer to the final weekend of the month, let’s take a quick look at some of the game’s tonight that will impact the ever-forming NCAA Bubble

St. John’s at Georgetown, 7:00, EPSN 3/ESPN Full Court. Line, GTown -9

St. John’s loss to Cincinnati last Saturday might have been the most painful defeat for any bubble contender on the weekend. By missing more free throws than they made (13 to 12), the Johnnies gave away a game in a 1-point home loss to the Bearcats. It was St. John’s fourth loss in five games as their Big East schedule ratchets up in difficulty. And, their heartbreaker to Cincy combined with a blowout at the hands of Louisville earlier in the week, finally netted some payback with the Bracketology crowd. The Johnnies are still firmly in the bracket as 36 of 41 pollsters have them in their field, but the’ve fallen from a 6th seed to a 9th seed in one week and saw the number of mocks excluding them from the field increase from two to five. The going continues to get tougher for St. John’s. Tonight, they travel to Georgetown, a Matrix 5th seed. The Hoyas are on the upswing after a pair of road league wins last week paced by Austin Freeman’s conference player of the week efforts as he finally showed the game that made him a  preseason conference player of the year contender. On Sunday, the Johnnies host Duke in the Garden. That’s the rub for St. John’s the rest of the way. They’ll have plenty of chances for resume wins from here on out. But how many more failures in those games can they endure before they’re on the wrong side of the bubble? Bottomline: St. John’s candidacy will be a tight one all winter. If they fall short of the bracket on Selection Sunday, they’ll rue the day in January when they were ice cold at the charity stripe.

North Carolina at Miami, 7:30, ESPN 2. Line, UNC -1

It’s really the same old story for Miami. They look good enough through early January to inspire hopes for an NCAA berth, but eventually they lack enough flair and playmaking to survive the ACC rigors and a weak league showing slowly, but surely squashes their hopes for the Big Dance. This season, a nice 11-3 mark with good looking wins over West Virginia and Ole Miss and a nailbiting loss at Memphis has given way to January ACC blues. A 1-4 mark this month in conference play has pushed the Canes not only to the bottom of the league standings, but out of their early spot in the bracket projections. They lost a pair of 2-point games at home to Florida State and on the road to NC State. Those results, as tight as they were, carried some bracketology consqeuences. The Canes fell from a 12-seed with 23 votes to sixth-from-last out of the field with just 10 votes. They’ll look to currty some of that favor back when they host the Tar Heels this evening. UNC appears to have put last year’s blues behind them, and are a solid, consensus 5th seed in the latest matrix projections. But, as their 20-loss in Atlanta to a bad Georgia Tech team a week ago proved, its that we’re still not dealing with a vintage UNC outfit. If the Canes can take advantage of that and snare a rare win for them over UNC, then they could find themselves on the correct side of the bubble again during the next straw poll. Read more »

Big 10 Hoops: Gophers Last Tour Of Pain Stop

January 9, 2011
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(Ed Note: Once again, the breakdown of a premier Big 10 Basketball game is brought to you by Chitownblue of the WLA and Just Covers.)
 
Thus concludes the Gophers’ Tour of Pain – opening their Big 10 slate with games at the Kohl Center, Breslin Center, and ValuCity Arena in their first four games. Today’s matchup is the premier matchup of the Big 10′s second week, if only because it matches up the nation’s most talked about freshman – the Buckeyes’ Jared Sullinger – against the conference’s unit best suited to shut him down - Minnesota’s brusing starting frontcourt combination of Ralph Sampson III and Trevor Mbakwe, who have the ability to contain him on the defensive side AND make him work on the offensive side (Mbakwe is clearly becoming the Gopher’s chief offensive weapon). Sullinger has really only faced the front-court defensive quality of the Gopher’s in one other opponent, the Big 10/ACC challenge game againt Florida State, where he faced down NBA prospect Chris Singleton. While the press departed the game all a-twitter about Sullinger’s double-double, he was an extremely uncomfortable-looking 3-9 from the field, including approximately five blocks of his shots. He looked, honestly, like a brand-new BJ Mullens. Can Sampson and Mbakwe match that sort of defensive excellence? Well, one thing is for sure – they’re not going to spend much time worrying about Dallas Lauderdale’s offense, so both with likely be unleashed on Sullinger. We’ll see if he’s grown.
 
Unfortunately for the Gophers, Sullinger is merely a piece in one of the conferences two best offensive units – seniors David Lighty and John Diebler, junior William Buford, and freshman DeShaun Thomas provide significant scoring threats as well. Diebler, Buford, and Lighty all shoot 39% or better from 3-point range, Thomas has been unstoppable inside the arc, and Buford has excelled at taking the ball to the rack. The Gophers have been up-and-down against perimeter play – erasing UNC’s and Wisconsin’s shooters while going down to MSU in a barrage of three-pointers. If Sullinger is held in check, it’s going to be incumbent upon Buford and Lighty to penetrate in order to get daylight for their three-point shooters. Further – this OSU team is woefully shallow – they only play seven players and, as noted, two (freshman PG Aaron Craft and Senior PF Dallas Lauderdale) are empty ciphers. Foul trouble could significantly harm them, and the Gopher’s are physical enough to put that to the test.
 
The Buckeye’s D is up and down – they held FSU to under 50 points, but allowed Iowa’s true freshman big man, Melsahn Besabe, go for 23 points and 13 rebounds, with efficient shooting. We know that Mbakwe will probably score his share, but what about everyone else? Since I bemoaned the lack of production from the Gopher backcourt, PG Al Nolen and SG Rodney Williams had an effective day against the Hoosiers (Indiana doesn’t guard anyone – here’s a shaker of salt), but lost starting SG Devoe Joseph to transfer. This brings the enigmatic Rodney Williams into the starting lineup, and means more minutes for freshmen Chip Armelin and the equisitely named Maverick Ahanmisi. Armelin and Ahanmisi are extremely unproven, but Williams is arguably the most athletic player in the Big 10 and a good defender who is still somewhat lost on both ends. The exchange of Joseph for Williams probably increases the Gopher’s ability to contain the Buckeye shooters, but takes some points off the board for them as well, as Joseph is the only person on the roster to resemble a playmaker even once this season. On the other hand, the Buckeyes have allowed season best offensive performances to Indiana and Iowa in consecutive games. Ugly. Read more »