Bowl Chronicles

Bowl Chronicles: Orange Bowl Edition

January 3, 2011
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The Orange Bowl classic tonight pits two teams that have hot virtually since Day One of the football season. In one corner are the Virginia Tech Hokies. After a bad five days to open the season that saw them lose a heart breaker to Boise State and then a shocking upset to James Madison, the Hokies have terrorized the Atlantic Coast. At one point, they were down 17-7 early in the second quarter against East Carolina in the third game of the year. But they outsocred the PIrates 42-10 the rest of the way to launch them on the impressive win streak they’re still riding today. Eleven wins in row, 10 by double digits, with an average margin of victory at 20.18 points per game. What’s more is they’ve paying out. The Hokies covered the spread in 10 of those final 11 games, including a stretches of six anf four games in a row. One of your 2010 biggest money makers on the college football board resides in Blacksburgh and who would have thought you would havs said that after that 0-2 start and embarassing loss to the FCS Dukes?

In the other corner is Stanford. Wait, what? Stanford? Is that right? This is the Orange Bowl, surely you jest? We do not. It’s another year, another Cinderella run for an Orange Bowl entrant. After Wake Forest, Kansas, Cincinnati and Georgia Tech made rare, unprecendented appearances in this bowl game in recent years, the Stanford Cardinal reach this big money bowl, 11 years removed from their last major postseason game, the 2000 Rose Bowl, looking to win their biggest bowl since a win in Pasadena almost 40 years ago on New Year’s Day 1972. Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh certainly has this team rolling four years after inheriting a broken program that had just one win in 2006 the year before his arrival. Last year he broke through with a Sun Bowl bid behind the legs of a touchdown machine, Heisman-caliber tailback. This year, he’s in a BCS Bowl, riding the arm of a Heisman-level quarterback and a major surge in points out of the passing game. Like the Hokies, they’ve been killing fools with an average margin of victory in their 11 games of more than 26 points. And, they’ve been cashing in, covering every week since October 23. Of course, the real question is if Stanford wins–or even if they lose–will Harbaugh lead his team to a rousing chorus of The Victors in the lockerrom. That’s the proverbial Pink Elephant in this room. The Cardinal might be built for the future with a record number of 4-stars heading to The Farm in recent recruiting cycles, but is their head man long for Palo Alto? San Fran has alledly offered a big deal. Oakland may be interested. John Elway is in Miami trying to woo Harbuagh into looking into the Broncos as a destination. Then, there is his alma mater Michigan, who presumably has been in his ear since at least Thanksgiving. Harbaugh will coach somewhere next season, but its a near certain lock that it wont be at Stanford.

Both teams have excellent quarterbacks, but the real reason both are in this contest is thanks to their rebuilt defenses. Virginia Tech always has lights out defense, but they entered this season with major question marks on that side of the ball, having to replace eight starters from a year ago, many of whom had developed into productive stars and had a couple years of starting under their belt. It’s really no surprise that defensive coordinator Bud Foster was able to rebuild this unit into something worthy. He’s one of the best in the business. We now have a new group of Hokie defenders to track that will keep them in BCS contention for the foreseeable future on that side of the ball. We’ve seen their prize defensive recruits of the 2008 and 2009 classes finally step into a role as defensive starter with ’08 4-star LB Bruce Taylor leading the team in tackles and adding 15 tackles for loss and ’09 4-star Jayron Hosley showcase shutdown corner potentional leading the team with 8 picks while  becoming a playmaker in the return game as well. They have the ultimate one-year wonder with 5th-year senior DE Steve Friday blowing up in his one and only year as a fulltime player with 8.5 sacks and 16 TFLs.  A total of eight players from the ’08 and ’09 classes carved out a spot in the starting lineup or rotation this year in their first year as legit contributers. This year, the Hokies had to replace 7 of their top-10 tacklers from a year ago. Next year? They return 7 of their top-10 tacklers, not including three guys in the D-Line rotation who combined for 68 tackles, 11 sacks and 18.5 TFLs. ACC offenses, you missed your chance this year against the Hokie D program in transition.

At Stanford, they might have won the Pac-10 a year ago, if not for a lousy defense. Harbaugh’s respons? Clean house on the defensive staff and bring in five new assistant coaches, including Vic Fangio, brought in to run the D after coaching in Baltimore for years, the last few seasons coincidentally under Harbaugh’s brother John. Fangio made major changes right away putting his fingerprints on the Cardinal D. He scrapped the 4-3 defense and installed a 3-4 look. He moved two defensive ends to OLB, including Thomas Kaiser, the one star from 2009 on D who earned All Pac-10 honors at DE, imported three-year fullback starter Owen Maricic to play ILB and blue chip 2009 recruit Shayne Skov blossomed in a big way as the team’s leading tackler at the other ILB spot. After a couple of seasons of rebuilding the secondary by transitioning offensive players to that side of the ball and other position changes within the D, Stanford finally fielded a competent pass D this season. Four of their top-5 secondary players either spent at least one full year at WR on the offensive depth chart or somewhere else on the D, including 5th-year CB Roger Sherman who broke through with a big season this year after spending three years working out as a WR and last year struggling his first season on D. It’s hard to argue with the overall results of the job Fangio did this season. A year after the Cardinal ranked 90th in total d, 55th in rushing D, 110th in passing D and 69th in scoring D, Stanford upped those rankings to 22nd, 24th, 34th and 11th this year. That’s how you go from the Sun Bowl to the Orange Bowl in one season.

Both of these defenses have been rebuilt. And they both have to face quarterbacks tonight on top of their games. Stanford’s Andrew Luck has his own decison to make. Return to Stanford or become the likely first pick in April’s NFL draft.  Oddsmakers have set his total passing yards tonight at Over/Under 275.5. He’s only hit that mark six times, but three were in the hone stretch in November. He’s completed at least 70 percent of his passes in every game since Week 5, with three 80-percent or better efforts. He’s thrown double digit touchdowns a game 10 times, with 5 games of three scoring throws or more. The Cardinal may have lost a Heisman caliber running touchdown machine, but they refocused the offense to a heisman caliber QB who can generate points in the passing game. The Hokies Tyrod Taylor had a scintillating senior season. He has accounted for over 3,000 total yards, 27 touchdowns and only 4 picks. He might not be the pure passer Luck is, but he’s every bit as explosive as a player. This should be a great game with two quarterbacks playing at their peak level. Read more »

Bowl Chronicles: New Year’s Day Edition

January 1, 2011
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Have you been enjoying bowl season so far? Plenty of storylines so far. After early chalk dominance, we got the promised underdog run the final couple days of the calendar year. The JCB, and hopefully you dear readers as well, benefited. The Bowl Chronicle record stands at 19-9, +9 Units. The last four days of 2010 will be remembered fondly. The underdogs run that we promise every bowl season has come through again with the pupsters. Since Tuesday, the underdogs are 10-3 ATS and after a 1-8 start, underdogs now stand even with the chalk this bowl season as 11 favorites have covered and 11 dogs have covered this postseason. Here’s hoping the dogs arent done barking.

 Today the action is Big 10 heavy with five conference teams going off the board. I brought up a handful of conference props in a post the other day. I saw these too late to plunk any action down, but I’m following them nevertheless, waving the Big 10 flag all the way. As far as total  bowl wins go, the Big 12 was -4.5 wins over the Big 10. That one is already a winner, thanks to the Big 10 going 2-0 in head to heads with the Big 12. Oh, and the overall Big 12 sucking this postseason. The other league listed on a total win head to head with the Big 10 was the big, bad, fast SEC. The SEC was -5.5 wins, but trail the Big 10 2-0 coming into today with the league on a 0-3 start. Actually, this prop is done as well. Even if the SEC sweeps the Big 10 today and win the rest of their bowl games while the Big 10 loses all of theirs, it would only net a 7-2 SEC advantage. Big 10 backers there can already go spend their money. With 60 total points in two games and six games left, the Big 10 is also on pace to go over the 206.5 number for total combined points that same book set.

The Big 10 has already paid off for a lot folks. So far in bowl season, the SEC and Big 12 have been overrated chalk, the Big 10 underrated underdogs. So what do we get on the first day of the year? Not one, not two, but four games with the Big 10 catching points against either the SEC or Big 12. Plus a fifth Big 10 team catching points in the Rose Bowl. And since its not a Pac-10 team with them in Pasadena, they might have a chance there. Did you resolve to be an even bigger Big 10 homer in 2011? If so, then this post is for you.

Capital One Bowl: Alabama Vs Michigan State, 1:00, ESPN. Lines, Alabama -10, O/U 52.5

I am surprised by how many people feel the Spartans dont have a chance in this game. I chuckle when I hear people point to their troubles in Iowa City as proof they’re not worthy of their 11-1 record, while somehow overlooking a similar looking shellacking they put on fellow Big 10 Champ Wisconsin. In the common foe department, both teams handled Penn State without much of a sweat, but the Spartans effort was on the road, in November, against a much more improved and feisty PSU team than Alabama faced in Week 2.  Oh, yeah, that’s right in the SEC vs the Big 10. Silly me. Its an automatic mismatch. Phfft. Actually think again. This is the 19th straight year the leagues have met in this bowl contest and its a dead heat 9-9 in the previous matches. Eight of the last 11 Capital One Citrus Bowls have been decided by a touchdown or less and the average margin of victory in all Big 10/SEC Citrus Bowl matches us a shade under 9 points per game. I dont need much convincing to take a stab with the Big 10 team catching double digits in this one, despite the disparate differences in the program’s brand names.

The Spartans underrated defensive line, anchored by Jerel Worthy, and their playmaking LBs of Jones and Gordon will relish going up against the 1-2 rushing punch of Ingram and Richardson. The Spartans might yield some yards, but they’re not going to be steamrolled. And they will spend more than their share of series standing up to the Tide, forcing punts. I worry about any team matching up with the hulking talent that is the Tide’s Julio Jones and their weaponry downfield. The Spartans will get burned. But they also will MAKE PLAYS in pass defense. In the mold of great secondaries during other peak times in MSU history, its a big play defense. All four starters can get picks and they’re among the national leaders in passes defended. Here;s how this is going to go when Alabama has the ball. The Tide will have a lot of good looking drives. But, the Spartans have stood tall the most all season when it matters the most. This is one of the more clutch red zone defenses in the country. The Spartans turned so many games in their favor because they stiffened up and thwarted scoring drives. Here’s a stat to keep in mind while this game plays out: 41 times the foe has driven into the MSU red zone, but they have nearly as many FG or less endings (20) to TD endings (21), Basically half the time, the other team doesnt get a touchdown when they’re in scoring range. Michigan fans know exactly what I’m talking about. MSU will cover this number because they will turn a couple 7-point drives into 3-point drives. If they turn those into 0-point drives, they’ll escape with the upset. Read more »

Bowl Chronicles: New Year’s Eve Edition

December 31, 2010
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Yesterday proved that I would rather be lucky than good. We saw a combined 6.3 Unit swing in our favor yesterday based on the endings of the KSU/Syracuse and UNC/Tennessee games. The circus that was the Tar Heel ending was a 4.2 swing alone. Hey, I had those games all the way. No worries. The flurry of luck moved the Bowl Chronicles record to 15-9 and 5.5 Units in the black. Not bad since we’re at a net loss on the bowls heading into Tuesday’s games. It’s been a nice three days. And, it hasnt all been luck. We nailed everything about the Illinois game the other day. And, be honest, how many of you folks out there took Washington last night. We did. And it was an easy play to make. As I tweeted last night, never underestimate the Holiday Bowl’s ability to give us an upset.

 But enough bragging. You’re only as good as today’s action. We have another quartet of games today. ACC vs Big East. ACC vs SEC. A mid major champ taking on a brand name. And a classic college football rivalry. Good stuff all around. Here’s who were are playing.

Carquest Bowl: Clemson Vs South Florida, noon, ESPN. Lines, Clemson -6, O/U 40.5

Before we start, an homage to the greatest moment in Clemson bowl history.

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Bowl Chronicles: Pinstripes, Music City and Holiday Bowls

December 30, 2010
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Last night we expected fireworks with two games laced with guady team and individual offensive statistics. Today? Dont get your hopes up. The three games that close down the bowl schedule today dont deliver a lot of offensive goodies, at least not on paper. Tonight we’ll have the 51st, 62nd, 74th, 75th and 106th ranked offense on display. That makes Nebraska’s 34th ranked offense in tonight’s Holiday Bowl look like 1999 Rams by comparison. All three games yesterday had Over/Under bars set in the mid-60s or higher. The games detailed in these posts are set at 47.5, 50 and 53.5.  We’ve already talked about the Armed Forces Bowl today and are already invested in its action. Here’s a quick look, with picks of course, on the rest of the day’s card.

Pinstripes Bowl: Kansas State vs Syracuse, 2:25, ESPN. Lines, Pick ‘Em, O/U 47.5

The Rich Rodriguez Coaching Calamity 2010 Postseason Tour continues. We had a stop last week in Florida as exiled position coach Vance Bedford, swept out the door like most of Carr’s assistants after the 2007 campaign, helped lead the Louisville Cardinals to victory in his role as defensive coordinator. We bopped clear cross country in advance of Christmas to San Diego State where another former Michigan assistant, and, in this case, darkhorse 2011 head coaching candidate Brady Hoke bombed Navy, giving SDSU their first bowl win in years. Today? The tour stops in the Bronx for what might be the most damning set yet in the case against the current Michigan head coach. The Syracuse Orangemen’s return to the postseason rankles all sides of the Rodrigguez argument. Not only is his first defensive coordinator Scott Shaffer, fired after Year One in Ann Arbor, doing wonders with the same scheme for the Orange, but Syracuse’s success this season stands in sharp contrast to Rodriguez’s current defensive coordinator Greg Robinson, who was an abkect failure as head coach with the Orange before he was canned and current leader Doug Marrone took over. Yes, there are plenty of other stops on this Calamity Tour. We have the Sugar Bowl, featuring the two highest profile player defections from the first months of the regime. Not to mention bigtime games next week involving the man people wanted to hire in 2007 and the man people want to hire now. Despite those future tour dates, I think the one on display today, is the primary reason the Rodriguez Era might only have a few hours left in power. The fired defensive coordinator is kicking ass at a school where the current defensive coordinator left a massive pile of fail in his wake. Excuse me, while I go pound this liter of Anti-freeze.

Anyway, getting back to this game. Shaffer’s defense is the only thing that leaps off the page in Syracuse’s matchup today at New Yankee Stadium against the Kansas State Wildcats. They’re 5th nationally in total defense, 6th against the pass and 13th in total points. Pressue defense has been the key. Shaffer’s stop troops can get sacks and pressure on the QB from everyone on every level of the D. They used to be among the lead leaders nationally, but struggled the last couple of games pinning down quarterbacks. They’re still good for at least three sacks going up against a KState team that’s struggled protecting the QB. They’re 89th in sacks allowed and they’re going to have trouble most of the day keeping the Orange D at bay.

To be sure, we saw an excellent Big East D in West Virginia get schooled the other night in a bowl game. But, KState’s offense doesnt even have an ounce of explosiveness that the Russell Wilson-led NC State offense has. Both teams have average offensive numbers. The Wildcats can run the football with Daniel Thomas. But the Orange can do the same with Delone Carter. Thomas, though, is running into the 18th best rushing D that allows just 118 yards per game. Carter gets to pound away at the 116th rushing defense. Only four teams in the nation allow more than the 216 yards per game the Cats permit on the ground. Edge to the Orange. Both QBsm Ryan Nassib and Carson Coffman are solid, not spectacular signal callers. I like Nassib’s ability to generate points out of the passing game for Syracuse as opposed to Coffman and, well, he’s going up against the weaker defensive outfit. Read more »

Bowl Chronicles: Option Vs Run And Shoot (Army/Southern Methodist)

December 30, 2010
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 Yesterday brought another mixed bag in our bowl run this Bowl Chronicle campaign.  We started horribly, dropping a pair of picks in the Military Bowl, beginning the day in a big hole. We got healthy on Illinois. Their win over Baylor gave us our biggest profit haul of the postseason on a single game. We heart Mikel Leshoure. But the day ended sourly as Oklahoma State whipped Arizona as we saw another underdog pick go down in flames. The result was a 3-3 record that earned just a small profit of 0.25 Units. Hard to complain when starting out in greater than a  1.5-unit deficit, but each of the last two days felt like we could make a major move up the profit charts, but lost our last pick yesterday and talked ourselves out of larger plays during the 2-0 Tuesday session. The real story of the bowl season, outside of the Big 10′s 2-0 start of course, is the continued dominance of the favorites. Going by the closing bell, chalk is now 11-3. We’re almost half way through bowl season. We’re still waiting for the underdogs to go on a run. We’re still up 0.80 Units, but considering we’re 3-7 selecting underdogs, the fact we’re in the black at all is a minor gambling miracle. Fourteen bowls games are in the books. The next fourteen games are squeezed into the next three days. I predict joy if the puppies make a stand and start biting back. I predict pain if the chalk continues to dominate. Four games today, the busiest so far of the bowl season. We’ll have a post on the rest of the action later today, but here’s our card for day’s opening game, prop picks included.

Armed Forces Bowl: Army vs Southern Methodist, noon, ESPN. Lines, SMU -8, O/U 52

Bowl games have a tendency to be clunky starters in some part to the long layoff between games. Here’s hoping that today’s bowl lid lifter in Dallas evolves into a classic because of the relatively short layoffs the teams have had since their last contest. Army played less than three weeks ago. Southern Methodist played 25 days ago. Both teams play specific styles of contrasting football and if each is sharp coming out of the game with their execution, then we’re going to see some fun football in the early going in this otherwise sleepy looking nooner. The old school option of Army in one corner. The run and shoot attack of SMU in the other. If both offenses are humming, then we should see a little bit of everything as each attack lands its blows.

It’s also a twisted matchup in that it involves two programs who arguably havent been the same since being embroiled in a major scandal that shook the college football world at that time. Army helped carry college football its first 50 years or so. Read as much as you can about the Cadets during that time as its some fascinating history. One of the highlights is the the Red Blaik Era where the team won more than 78 percent of its games and two national championships over 17 seasons. However the Cadets became embroiled in an academic cheating scandal in 1951 that nearly dismantled the program. Blaik eventually restored the program to its winning wats, but Army really downgraded football almost the second he left campus after the 1958 season.  The team stayed competive for awhile, but the three coaches following Blaik each went only a handful of games above .500. And since 1974 there arent too many programs on the FBS level that have a worse record than Army. Other than three bowl appearance in five years in the 1980s under Jim Young and a 1996 Independence Bowl Bid, I’ve never really seen a winning Army football team in my lifetime.  This was an elite program during an Golden Era of collegiate football. Seeing Army in the postseason appeals to my historic nature, and its just one of many reasons to be stoked for the Cadets playing in their first bowl game in 14 years.  As for SMU, they got the Death Penalty a quarter century ago after payola scandals made even more infamous by the stellar 30 for 30 ESPN documentary that aired earlier this month. They had not turned out a winning record in the 20 years they’ve been back on the college grid until last season’s breakthrough bowl appearance. Repeating that performance is a benchmark in its own right as June Jones continues to grow another mid-major in his own run and shoot image.

For a handicapping side, it gives us an exercise in backing underdogs that you know will outrush the favorite. This didnt go well a week ago with Navy last week, but I dont think the Ponies are as good as the San Diego State outfit that handled the Mids. I dont want to sell SMU’s rushing attack too short because when they do run the ball, they do so effectively enough where tailback Zach Line is the CUSA’s leading rusher. But, its such an unbalanced part of their attack, that they are still just the 79th rushing attack in the nation. In 9 of their 13 games, they failed to crack the 150 yard mark as a team. Army brings the 1oth ranked rushing offense thats churned out 250 yards rushing yards or more in nine games and only once failed to crack the double century mark. When the dust on the box score settles, I would be surprised if Army didnt have more rushing yards. Thats important. One of the first things I ever read on football capping pointed out that dogs that outrush the favorite cover about two-thirds of the time and those that doubled up in that stat column cashed over 80 percent of the time. It had records and everything. Of course, the catch is how can you really predict who will outrush who. Its tough enough figuring out who is going to win a game and now you want to try and pick who is going to win a stat? I know, its not even worth trying. But I have always used it as a basic jumping off point when looking for games to play. I really like teams that can run the football as underdogs. Think about it. Those teams, by running the football, do a great job of exerting their control of the game and often keep the favorites offense off the field for long stretches. Give them a mythical scoreboard head start? It’s why I liked everything about Illinois yesterday over Baylor. But its also why I liked Navy over San Diego State. What can I say? We’re not perfect over here. Read more »