Bowl Chronicles

Bowl Chronicles: MAC Vs WAC On Smurf Turf For All The Potatoes

December 17, 2011
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FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL, 5:00. UTAH STATE VS OHIO U. LINES USU -2, O/U 60.5

Every bowl season, there is always a game between midmajors that very few people watch, but that could compete for best, most exciting bowl game of the postseason run. In 2007, Utah and Navy went back and forth in a 65-point game. Three seasons ago, Colorado had enough fireworks to outlast Fresno in a 75-point game. Two years ago it was Idaho’s 43-42 last second win over Bowling Green. Last year, how about FIU’s rousing comeback, punctuated by a hook and ladder play, against Toledo. Predictably, a lot of these games seem to involve a MAC squad. If we’ve learned anything about the MAC over the years its that it is a devilish conference to try and handicap and the cliche expect the unexpected is activated. Its why I feel this year’s Famous Idaho Potato Bowl between Utah State of the WAC and the MAC’s very own Ohio University will be the midmajor bowl game that ends up on everybody’s best of bowl season list.

I expect a shootout. I love the offensive playmakers on both sides of the field. They should exchange haymakers all day long.  Utah State’s Robert Turbin might be the best running back in the country you’ve never heard seen play. After missing 2010 with an injury, he returned to the field and followed up his 2009 1,296 yard effort by gashing defenses this year to the tune of 1,416 yards, 6.2 yards per carry and 19 touchdowns. Michael Smith and Kerwynn Williams combined for just shy of another 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns giving the Aggies a legit three headed attack from the tailback position and the nation’s 6th ranked rushing attack. Ohio has their own stars, such as QB Tyler Tettleton. He passed for over 3,000 yards, accounted for 35 touchdowns, registered at least two scores or more in 10 of 13 games and finished 20th in the nation in total offense with 286.23 yards per game. Donte Harden gives them a 1,000-yard type of tailback and LaVon Brazil is an NFL wideout plying his trade in the MAC. He’s averaged 16.3 yards per catch, caught 10 touchdowns and had 100 yards in six of his last nine games. Both teams have great offensive lines. Both teams are in the top quarter of the country in most of the various tempo free stats used to measure efficiency. Folks, two of the best, most effective offenses in the postseason will knock heads in this Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Toss in the Smurf Turf of Boise Stadium and this game just feels like a 38-35, last team with the ball wins type of contest. It might be a rule that whenever a MAC team plays on the Smurf Turf that you must take the Over. It sounds like a rule, doesnt it? Once the JCB intern team wakes up, we’ll have one of them re-read the rulebook, so stay tuned. We might have a JCB Twitter announcement later. Who knows?

 Even though the MAC has a terrible record in bowl games (incuding a goose egg in three kicks for Ohio U under Solich) and the fact we’re bumping heads with the always astute Conference Chalk, I like the RAWRCATZ  in this one. I feel they’re more balanced. They not only will get a more efficient game out of Tettleton than USU will get out QB Adam Kennedy,  but it will be a more explosive effort. The ability to do damage in the air will give them the edge in a match where there will be a lot of offense. I give a defensive edge to Ohio U as well. Yes, Bernard Pierce and Temple ran on them, but the team was also caught off guard a bit with a first time starter going against them who added a unique rushing element to go along with Pierce. Otherwise, not many teams have run the ball on them. Utah State wont plow through them with ease and this game comes down to which quarterback can generate more points with his arm. I’m riding with Tettleton and the Cats get this done unless the defense totally collapses. Besides, Solich under OU have been profitable underdogs, going 22-13-1 ATS in his tenure, including a current 8-1 run when catching points against fellow mid-majors.  Despite the breakthrough bowl season, Utah State has not been kind to bettors this fall, going 2-5 ATS in their final seven games.

The Pick: Ohio U +2…….This game comes down to how will Tyler Tettleton respond to his performance in his last outing when he threw three picks, a major factor in his team’s eventual MAC Championship Game loss to Northern Illinois. That’s one third of his picks all season and his worst effort of the year. Well, worst half of the year. In the first half, he, Brazil and the passing attack dominated and opened up a big lead. I’m sold on this kid within this level of play. He’s looked good all year. The MAC’s top spot has been on a steady rotation based on who has the #1 QB in the league. With NIU’s Harnish departing, look for Tettleton to take that role. I think he makes a statement today that has most pundits sometime in the ensuing tomorrows proclaiming the Bobcats next season’s MAC favorites.

Bowl Chronicles: New Mexico Bowl Kicks Off Bowlapalooza

December 16, 2011
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We finally made it to the beginning of bowl season. I hope you got your Christmas shopping done already because you certainly do not want to be dazed and confused in your local mall tomorrow afternoon. Not with a tripleheader of midmajor bowl action to kick off a string of 35 postseason exhibitions over the next three weeks. While I love the bowls, I wonder if I dont love the concept of the bowl games these days more than the bowls itself. Dont get me wrong, I fundamentally love that there’s all this football, but between the shoddy method of determining a champion and the lack of creativity otherwise in determining bowl matchups beneath that, there is quite a bit of suck and quite a lot of lack of common sense with this bowl run. Throughout this stretch, we’ll try to address some of those issues and offer up the JCB’s formal solutions. I’m sure all the powers that be will be reading, right?

Our meal ticket here, however, is picking games and we’ve always plucked out a profit out the glut of bowl contests, so for now we’re just focusing on the games and the return of 2,000 word posts on games like Wyoming/Temple. There are three games tomorrow. We’ve got a post on the bowls in Idaho and New Orleans between Utah State/Ohio and UL-Lafayette/San Diego State later today. This post focuses on tomorrow’s New Mexico Bowl between Wyoming and Temple, the first bowl game of the season. So, without further hullabaloo, lets break it down and explain why I am beginning the bowl run by taking the points with the Cowboys…..

NEW MEXICO BOWL, 2PM. WYOMING, 8-4, VS TEMPLE, 8-4. LINES, TEMPLE -7, O/U 49.5

This year’s New Mexico Bowl offers a matchup of uncommon opponents between Wyoming and Temple. Both finished 8-4, with Wyoming tying for third place in the Mountain West Conference and Temple finishing in second place in the MAC East Division. Wyoming qualified for this game as the final contractual postseason selection from their league. A Pac-12 squad is supposed to be on the opposite sideline, but with two teams in the BCS, USC ineligible and a ton of mediocrity, the Pac-12 couldnt fill all their bowl tie-ins, so the Temple Owls have been flown in from Philadelphia for the affair. As has become tradition, this bowl involves teams that didnt make the postseason a year ago. The New Mexico Bowl is only five years old, but already its carved out a tradition of hosting at least one “Cinderella Story”  in each matchup that failed to make a bowl the season before. With Temple and Wyoming, the New Mexico Bowl is hosting a pair of teams who missed out on the fun a year ago. Wyoming actually won this game two years ago and a win tomorrow would be just the third bowl win since 1966. For Temple, its just the fourth bowl appearance in program history and they’re looking for the second ever win and first since winning the Garden City Bowl in 1979 over Cal. Temple is favored by a touchdown right now, but I am leaning towards the underdog Pokes. Read more »

Bowl Chronicles: Illinois/UCLA, Our Rose Bowl In Hell

December 14, 2011
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(The JCB continues its previews of the Big 10 Bowl Games. Previous looks included the BCS Games, the Big 12-Big 10 Challenge, and games against Mid-Majors. We’ll take a look at the three SEC/Big 10 matches sometime next week.)

When I die and go to hell, this will be the Rose Bowl matchup. On a continous loop. Not these programs, per se, but rather these two specific teams. I’ll get my beer, chips and chili ready to watch another Grandaddy Of Them All and then the Devil will  pull another fast one. There will be no Michigan. No Ohio State. No USC. No Oregon. It will just be the 2011 versions of Illinois of UCLA kicking off with the San Gabriel Mountains weeping in the background. To make it worse, neither Zook or Neuiheisel will be coaching, so I cant even enjoy the LULZ of crappy, questionable coaching decisions. It is Hell after all. There will be no enjoyment. These teams actually once did play a Rose Bowl and it was hell. At least for Illinois in a 45-9 defeat with aforementioned Neuheisel bombing the Illini for a quartet of scores and eventual Coke casualty Don Rogers terrorizing Illinois on defense. They’ve played a few times since then and two of the games ended in 6-3 scores. So when these teams do play, it is indeed hell on the fans involved.

In real life, on earth, the illustrious College Football Postseason actually deems this a game worth playing. Has there ever been a bowl matchup in history matching two worse teams from major conferences? Illinois comes in on a six game losing streak. The first team in history at the FBS level to start 6-0 and end 6-6. Bang up job, Illini. The Bruins are, well, just the Bruins, the same inconsistent, play small in big spots, program we’ve come to love to bet against all these years. They dont even have a winning record, fergawdssakes. Both teams have fired their coaches and come into the bowl with an interim head coach. We’ve got the JCB Research team already digging through the archives trying to find any other bowl matchups in history that involve two interim coaches after the head man was axed. We might be in unchartered territory here. Or it happens a lot and we just have bad memories. 50/50.

Are either of their new hires as game changers for these programs?  UCLA hired Jim Mora Jr, a twice fired NFL head coach with zero experience really in the college game. How in the world is he going to recruit against USC? I dont like their chances of breaking this two decade .500 rut with him. I do like Tim Beckman who the Illini hired, but you still cant help but scratch your head at his tragectory. He’s considered a defensive guy, but his Okie State defenses, which he coordinated before taking over at Toledo, were terrible. And his Rocket teams have had defensive failures throughout his tenure. I guess I’m suprised given those blights within his specialty that it didnt take another year or two of success at Toledo before a bigger program handed him the keys.

The Illini have one of the worst offenses in the postseason. They have the 106th ranked offense in the Fremeau Efficiency Rankings and are worse than 100th in all but one statistical category they track. The one “good” skill they have is their 53rd ranking in methodical drives that go for at least 10 plays. So they’re experts at drives that snap a lot of plays, but dont really go anywhere. Sounds like a Zook Offense to me. They’re 91st in the country in scoring. Between their top two rushers, the Illini saw a production dip of almost 1,500 yards from 2010 to 2011. Unless QB Nathan Scheelhaase is unusally hot tossing it to AJ Jenkins, then this offense really struggles to even cross the street, let alone find the endzone. During this 6-game losing streak, the Illini regularily made it to the fourth quarter without scoring a point. Luckily, in the other corner, is a Bruin team that statistically at least has the worst defense in the postseason. Per the same efficiency rankings, the Bruins are 114th in defensive efficiency and in the bottom quarter of the country in almost every number they track. They’re 91rst in yards allowed, 95th in rushing yards allowed and 96th in points allowed.  They’ve allowed 38 or more points in half their games.

The one really good unit on this field will be the Illinois defense. Its really played lights out all season long. The Illini have been in a lot of these games during this losing streak despite its offense’s insistence on not scoring until the fourth quarter. Whitney Merciless led the nation in sacks and won the Butkus Award.  They have guys in all three positional units that are heavy hitters and playmakers. UCLA doesnt have a great offense, but its at least compentent. Kevin Prince has been solid the back half of the season, averaging 250 total yards in offense while tossing 10 scores to just 4 picks since early October. Jonathon Franklin and Derrick Coleman have been solid runners. And as great as Jenkins has been for Illinois, I’m not sure Nelson Rosasrio isnt the most talented flanker in this contest. Read more »

Big 10 Bowl Chronicles: Big Underdogs In The Big 12 Challenge

December 7, 2011
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 Sportsbooks in Vegas and in the Caribbean Islands finally released lines for all the bowl games earlier in the week, and, as a result, we’re catching Bowlapalooza Fever. For a day or so, the only spreads we had were on the BCS Bowl Games, but now we have the full slate of odds. Many things caught my attention, but let me quickly focus on one. There are four games with a double digit point spread. We have Boise and TCU as heavy chalk in their pre-Christmas Day bowl games against Arizona St and Louisiana Tech. The other two? The Big 10 is involved in both, albeit as the underdogs. The conference has two matches with Big 12 schools and in both of them they are double digit underdogs: Iowa +14 vs Oklahoma and Northwestern +10 vs Texas A/M. Half the expected blowouts, per the Vegas line at least, are supposed to happen against the Big 10. In 2011, that sounds about right. Otherwise, the Big 10 is involved in a lot of coin flips where the spread is less than a field goal.  Here’s a run down of the those games and respective lines:

Purdue -2.5 vs Western Michigan, Pizza Pizza Bowl, 12/27

Oklahoma -14 vs Iowa,  Alamo Bowl, 12/30

Texas A/M -10 vs Northwestern, Meieke Car Care Bowl, 12/31

Illinois -3 vs UCLA, Kraft Hunger Bowl, 12/31 Read more »

Big 10 Bowl Chronicles: Taking On Mid-Majors

December 5, 2011
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Let’s kick off our 2011-12 Bowl Chronicles Series with the first part of our Big 10 postseason preview. We’ll have our own kneejerk takes on all the Big 10 bowl games, beginning with this post featuring the two matchups against mid-major competition: Penn St vs Houston and Purdue vs Western Michigan.

TICKECT CITY BOWL, 1/2, NOON. PENN STATE VS HOUSTON

Houston may have fallen short of a BCS Bowl Berth, but getting a chance to run circles around a brand name team from the Big 10 isnt a bad consolation prize. And fans will at least get a chance to see if Case Keenum and his go-go-go offense can land haymakers against a legit top-10 Defense from a major conference. Its the Conference USA runner up and 19th ranked Cougars vs the Big 10 Leaders East Division Co-Champs and 22nd ranked Nittany Lions. Last year this bowl game was Northwestern vs Texas Tech. This year’s game is a lot sexier. A year ago, 83 points was scored in this bowl game. If Houston is going to win this game, the total score needs to at least threaten that, dont you think?  The Cougars can put a ton of stress on the Nittany Lion back line of defense. The Lions may have a great passing defense from a numbers standpoint, but they havent tangled with something like this before. What PSU gives up per game through the air is about what Keenum expects to have gained by halftime. Penn State has allowed just 9 TD passes, while Keenum has tossed 45 scores this year. The Cougs have not been held to less than 28 points and have scored 48 or more nine times. Only three foes have been able to climb out of the teens against Penn State. Looking for a boxscore battle? Try Houston’s offense which is #1 in the country in drives that average 10 yards per play vs a Nittany Lion defense thats #2 in the country in not allowing such big play, home run drives. Almost one-third of Houston’s drives are like that while Penn State has only allowed 3.1 percent of opposing drives to move at a 10-yard per play clip. Can Houston get their fireworks ignited? Can Penn State force them into a slower, uncomfortable, methodical pace? 

 This game might be a nightmare bowl selection scenario for PSU, but I love this game. Whats great about this game is Penn State hasnt really seen an offense like this in the Big 10. Thwarting James Vandenburg and Iowa, this is not. But, of course, Houston hasnt seen a defnese like this anywhere up and down its Shermanesque escapades through the Conference USA this fall. We’ll get definitive accounts on whether or not the Houston offensive and Penn State defensive are legit or frauds based on shaky competition. I think the bowl selection process actually gave us a good matchup here. Its at least intriguing with the great offense going against the great defense. Houston will lands its haymakers, by my early lean is Penn State. Penn State is similar to the Southern Miss D that vanquished Houston over the weekend, in that both have secondaries that ballhawk and get INTs. Overall, PSU is much better on that side of the ball than Southern Miss too. Devon Still, Jordan Hill and Jack Crawford should control the interior and blow up the Houston offensive line.  Penn State should be able to run the football all day. I’m inclined to think the Big 10 defense and a 155-yard, bowl MVP effort out of Silas Redd will be enough for a Penn State win. If you almost lost to UCLA, like Houston nearly did way back in September, then you’re probably not good enough to overtake one of the best bowl programs out there in Penn State. They’re 27-14-2 in bowl games and just know how to handle the various hullaballoos that come with these games. Of course, the whole Penn State handbook has been usurped with the Sandusky scandal and Joe Pa ousting. It’ll be interesting to see if the current Nits brass approaches bowl games any differently.

PIZZA PIZZA BOWL, 12/26, 4:30. PURDUE VS WESTERN MICHIGAN

The second bowl game pitting a Big 10 school against a mid-major is the Pizza Pizza Bowl in Detroit where Purdue takes on Western Michigan. It marks a return of the Big 10 to this bowl game that was once known as the Motor City Bowl. Despite a down year for the league, the Big 10 still notched a pair of BCS bids and had a total of 10 bowl eligible teams. For the first time since 2007, it was able to fill all its contractual slots and land a team in this bowl game. And, its Purdue, who repped for the league last time it was here with an exciting 51-48 win over a Dan LeFeveur-led Central Michigan team,  returning to Detroit to play a MAC team. Western doesnt come into the game with the conference championship hardware that CMU squad did, but they do have their own big armed QB in Alex Carder. Both these teams played Michigan in Ann Arbor this year. Both games kind of played out the same. Western and Purdue both scored first, on their first drive and then didnt score again until the game was effectively out of reach. The problem is I dont know if Western is even a top half MAC team this year. They arent as good as Northern, Ohio U, Temple or Toledo. They lost to Eastern. At best, this is the MAC’s #5 team. Of course, they’re going against the Big 10 #9 or #10 team, so its all good. We’ve been wondering for years if a second division Big 10 team could beat a middle of the road MAC team and we’ll get a chance this bowl season. Of course, we learn about this every September too, but whose counting.

Western will make a game of it, especially with the Carder to Jordan White combo. I dont know about you, but I already cant wait to bet the prop on White’s receiving yards. Expect it to be high, however, as he’s gone over 106 yards in eight of his last 11 games. But wont Kewaan Short and Bruce Gaston just wreck the Western offensive line? Isnt this matchup for DE Gerald Gooden, whose often nuetralized by the bigger tackles in the Big 10, a perfect fit for him to have a lot of positive activity?  Western’s D is terrible. They’re 87th in the country in available yards allowed and 99th in the land in value drives allowed. Translated, you can move the football all day on them, and I expect this offense with solid, competent playmakers to keep it rolling for Purdue most of the day. I dont know if it will be the shootout like the last time Purdue played in the Motor City, but I could see them winning in a game where even the loser hits 30 points. Of course, the Boilers also lost to Rice this year. So, there’s probably a decent chance they’re the ones scoring 30 in a losing effort. Like the Houston/Penn St game, this appears to be a fairly even battle with enough offense vs defense intrigue that it ought to keep us entertained.