Bowl Chronicles

Lets get our bowling shoes back on, shall we? Bowl season is well into its second week, but it feels like its barely kicked into anything more than first gear, doesnt it? Between a full NFL weekend, the lead-up to Christmas and the holiday itself, we really havent gone full bore with the bowl posting here at the JCB. We actually went two games without a post and didnt even make a call on one of them. GASP!! We did fire up the JCB Twitter and tweeted out a win on the last bowl game that kicked, winning on Nevada +8. We credit the win instead of a push on the 24-17 Southern Miss final to the fact that because there was a full NFL slate that day and an agenda full of Christmas Eve festivities got us on that line earlier in the day before it came back down to a touchdown. So we’re off to a good. Bowl Chronicles this year stands at 7-4, +3.20 Units. Can we keep the roll going? You might want to stay tuned. Bowl Chronicles has a history of getting hot the week after Christmas. We wont be sitting on the sidelines much with 16 bowls in the next six days. Let’s get right at it.

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl, 5:05 pm, North Carolina vs Missouri. Lines, Missou -6, O/U 52.5

Missouri vs North Carolina? Sounds like an Elite Eight game in three months. In fact, is there an ambitious book out there that will give any of us odds that these schools meet during the Regional weekend of March Madness? That would be a must see game between two talented teams who love to play an exciting up and down the floor game. As for a football bowl game? Maybe not as sexy. It’s a pair of 7-5 teams, trying to puncuate their inconsistent, choppy seasons with at least a win. Although we spent some time over Christmas dinner bickering over who is better, the fifth place team from the Big 12 or the fourth place team from the ACC Atlantic Division. Tonight, that will at least be solved. Ok, I kid. We really didnt spend time debating this topic. Well at least nobody else did. I’ve been debating it in my head ever since bowl matchups were announced.

The matchup that jumps out on paper is the 11th ranked rushing of Missouri that travels on the ground to the tune of 236.8  yards a game against the North Carolina rush defense that allows just a shade over 100 rushing a yards a game good for 14th in country. The Tigers are a bit banged up with leading rushing Henry Josey out with an injury, but Kendial Lawrence picked up 263 yards with a 5.2 yards per carry since taking over as lead back pacing the Tigers during their three game winning streak to close the season. With he and QB James Franklin who churned out 839 yards with his legs, the Tigers of should be alright personnel wise. They’ll be knocking heads with a talented Heels defensive front anchored by DT Quinton Coples who’ll be making millions as a first round draft pick in the spring.  I expect both sides of this battle to land their blows. The Tigers offensive line is a bit undersized and I do give the overall edge here to the UNC front seven to win more of those battles. The Tigers passing attack isnt all that dangerous and they rarely test you down the field. This plays right into the talented, fast Tar Heel defense’s hands.

Meanwhile when the Heels have the ball, I feel they can pound right up the gut pretty much at will with Giovanni Bernard. The Tigers have been vulnerable to 100-yard rushing games during Big 12 play. I wouldnt be surprised if the freshman in Carolina Blue ends as the game’s leading rusher. QB Bryn Renner doesnt offer the dual threat of Franklin, but he’s much better at stretching the field. He’s actually had comprable, if not better in spots, stats than TJ Yates did a year ago. Yates is currently starting as a rookie with the Houston Texans. The Heels did gain more yards a year ago through the air, but they’ve also dedicated more of their offense to their factor back Bernard than they did with anyone a year ago in Yates senior campaign. With Dwight Jones and Erik Highsmith he has two targets that can go vertical and change the course of drives down field. Missouri’s passing game leans so heavy on the horizontal game that I wonder if when the rubber meets the road, there wont be a ton of space for their running game in critical sequences. With the power of Bernard and the 14.2 and 15.1 yards per catch of Hightower and Jones–going up against the 91st ranked passing defense in the nation–I think the Heels might have a bit more ability to play their own game against a Missou D that’s been good against the average to bad teams, but shaky against eventual teams all season long. Read more »

Ah, the Christmas Holidays. All our favorite characters come out to play this time of year. Rudolph the Red Nosed Reindeer, Mr Heatmeister, Frosty, Buddy The Elf. All favorites of mine, for sure. But, none of them are my favorite holiday characters this time of year. Nope, you can take all them and give them red, second place ribbons for their attempts at being the best holiday character. Top dawg of holiday hereos for this blog is none other than the Disinterested Bowl Favorite. Never heard of him? Well, sometimes he does wear a cape. But mostly he’s hard to spot because he takes the form of many faces this time of year. Sometimes he’s dressed up as a conference runner-up thats been shipped to a December bowl game (Think Texas in the 2001 and 2002 Holiday Bowls). Sometimes he’s dressed up as a jilted national title contender playing in a game thats not for all the BCS marbles (Think KState in the 1998 Alamo Bowl or Alabama in the 2009 Sugar Bowl). Other times he’s stuck in his home state, lapping up the holidays with his hommies while ignoring the actual football game (Texas Tech in the 2009 Cotton Bowl, and Miami in the 2009 Champs Sports Bowl) Often, he’s channeling his inner Dante from Clerks and he just isnt supposed to even be there (Think USC in the 2009 Emerald Bowl). He’s hard to spot because of his different disguises. But, he’s out there. Lurking. Bringing pain to square public bettors while spreading holiday cheer, joy and profit to underdog players everywhere.

We’re excited tonight because we have a sneaky suspicion our hero is touching down tonight for the first time this season in the San Diego Poinsetta Bowl. He might be wearing purple, white and horns. His appearance tonight would indeed fall into one of his traditional identitities, that being a team, despite its great season having to play in a minor bowl after a couple years of playing in a major bowl. For real, how motivated will TCU be tonight in this Poinsetta Bowl after consecutive years in the BCS? Last year it was the Rose Bowl, a national, riveted TV audience while they took down the Big 10 Champ. This year? A pre-Christmas Day Bowl in a half filled stadium with next to nobody at home watching as they take on a team from the WAC. After the fifth TCU fan yawned when this matchup announced, the Disinterested Favorite emerged. He’s like Beetlejuice in that regard.

After initially scoffing at this crappy looking game on paper, I am coming around more and more to the viability of tonight’s San Diego Poinsetta Bowl between TCU and Louisiana Tech. In one corner, you have the rocking and rolling TCU offense scoring 41.7 points per game behind the arm of Casey Pachell and his 24 touchdown passes and the various legs of their headed rushing attack featuring three backs with at least 100 carries, who have combined for 2,157 yards, 6.59 yards per carry and 22 touchdowns. In the other corner, is a La Tech defense thats proven very hard to drive the ball down the field against. Looking for an underrated midmajor stop unit? Look no further than the La Techsters. They’re 9th in the country in available yards allowed, 6th in the country in explosive drives (averaging 10 yards per play) allowed and 9th in value drives allowed. If you’re looking to drive the field, then you dont want La Tech on the other side of the line of scrimmage. Sure, some of those numbers were built on the backs of subpar WAC offenses, but you could say the same thing about some of TCU offensive output, that is was mostly accumulated against some average MWC defenses? Regardless, we’ll find out which is mor legit tonight. The Bulldog defense that ranks in the top-10 in all those above efficiency numbers or the TCU offense thats in the top-10 in those numbers as well. Hmmmm, maybe I should recant a bit on my stance that this is a terrible matchup where we will learn nothing.

La Tech comes in on a 7-game winning streak, climbing out of a 1-4 hole to make it to the postseason for the first time since 2008. Their best results include road wins at fellow WAC bowlers Nevada and Utah State. They also went into Oxford and beat Ole Miss, lost in OT at Mississippi State and Houston and fell to eventual Conference USA Champ Southern Miss by 2 points. TCU, meanwhile, has lost just twice this year, a 2-point loss to Baylor and a 7-point loss in overtime to Southern Methodist. They thumped MWC bowlers Air Force, BYU and Wyoming all by double figures and scored one of the biggest marquee wins of the season when they won at Boise State, 36-35, last month. Both teams have had very good seasons. For TCU its really their last dance at this level. They will be part of the Big 12 next year and their days of toiling against mid-majors are over. Many people feel La Tech is a Conference USA-type team playing in the wrong league. But, nobody wants La Tech in their league. The Bulldogs have a little bit of a chip on their shoulder and have a golden chance tonight to show they can play with almost anybody.

TCU went 3-3 ATS against fellow bowl teams, including a pair of wins, but no covers as chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. by a bit more than the 10 points they are laying tonight. La Tech? Hold on to your seats, but the Bulldogs were one of the best teams all season against the number. Against FBS teams, La Tech was 10-1 ATS.  They last time they failed to cover the spread was on October 1.  They went 5-0 ATS against fellow bowl teams this year. They were catching points in all five and pulled two outright upsets. Could I really pull the trigger on La Tech? Yes, I can. Read more »

I caught an interesting tidbit listening to the On The Line podcast over the weekend. They were talking with Todd Fuhrman of Ceasar’s Palace and Fuhram admitted that action on the three lower tier bowl games this past weekend would exceed the total action taken on a full Saturday of college hoops during January and February. Despite three games involving teams most people hadnt watched before, Books everywhere took more action on these games than anything else that day probably. That tells me that a day with three bowl games results in one of the biggest Saturdays of the year for most books, outside of the typical Saturday during the CFB regular season. With just three games to choose from, its safe to say that a vast majority of the action centered around the six basic bets: the sides of each game and the respective over/under totals. What made Saturday such a fascinating day is half those bets were basically decided at the final gun. It had to be a tense, exhilarating day at sportsbooks everywhere. Let’s review:

• Temple/Wyomong Over/Under 51.5…….the side, with the Owls favored by 7 was all but a done deal in the waning seconds. But, wtih 3:22 to go, Wyoming took over on their own 29 yard line on what appeared to be a worthless, playing out the string drive. Ten plays later Brett Smith toasses a touchdown pass to cut the lead to 37-13, Wyoming decides to go for 2 points, makes it with seconds left to give us a final, cosmetic score of 37-15. Whats the big deal? Well, that 2-point converstion screwed Under bettors and tilted the 51.5 total set for the game  Over. I would be killing hookers all over the place if I lost an Under and took a bad beat in this fashion. Does the coach’s card really advise going for 2 when down 24 points with seconds left? I can only venture that word got to the Wyoming sideline that a lot of their alums had backed the Over. Its the only thing that makes sense
• Utah State vs Ohio U, Utah State -2…….The ending of the Ohio/Utah State has been widely mocked as refs had to go to the review not once, but twice to figure out whether or not Ohio scored a TD. The correct call was eventually made–they did not–but Ohio U scored anyway two plays later to take the lead with only 13 to go to take a 24-23 lead. This game was Utah State -2, per the closing line, so the entire winning side in the sports gambling world shifted hands. Tyler Tettleton’s 4rth down pass to Lavon Brazil down to the 1-yard line might not have been the actual deciding play to to do this, but it was the play of the game for Sportsbooks, which saw a ton of action on the Aggies moving USU from slight dog to slight favorite by gametime.
• San Diego St/UL Lafayette, Over/Under 61…….In the New Orleans Bowl nightcap, the spread was never in doubt. UL Lafayette was a 4-point underdog, but never trailed in this game. Until the very end when SDSU scored a final TD to make it 30-29. They werent going to cover the -4, but the Over/Under 61 was still very much in play. A two-point conversion by the Aztecs failed, but ULL got the ball back, hit a couple plays, then boomed a 50-yard field goal at the buzzer that not only gave the Rajin’ Cajuns the win, but also brought joy to everyone with an Over 61 ticket. Twenty-six fourth quarter points were needed in order to tilt the Over and that’s exactly what happened, with the final score occurring as time expired.

There were six major bets that day and three were decided basically on the last play. I count myself lucky that of all of my plays that day, only one factored into the dramatics and we came out with a winner on the Ohio Bobcats. Otherwise, how exciting? Say what you will about the problems of the bowl season, and there is indeed a lot to say, but Saturday proved how exciting it can be. And, who loves this season more than anybody else: the sportsbook and the gamblers. That’s who this season is really for. Everybody else will have forgotten the three middling bowl games from last weekend, but anybody with action on those games, the bookies setting the lines and anybody who happened to be in a sportsbook during any of the dramatics will likely never forget.

The only other thing worth wrapping up from Day One was a quick mention on how none of the factor backs paid out. With Temple’s Bernard Pierce, USU’s Robert Turbin and SDSU’s Ronnie Hillman, we had three of the top-10 tailbacks in rushing yards per game in action. Bookies set rushing total props for each, but none went over. Neither Pierce or Hillman even cracked the century mark, upsets in its own right. Turbin landed on 101 yards, except the Book had set his total at 103.5. This was a bad beat for the JCB as we had the Over. On the Aggies last legit drive of the game, they had a chance to milk the clock with Durbin and put away Ohio U. Turbin was stopped for no gain on first down, but didnt touch the ball on second or third down, the Aggies punted the ball away and didnt take a real offensive snap the rest of the way. Sigh.

But, we came out a little ahead of Day One of Bowl Chronicles. We split on our regular sized plays, winning on Wyoming -3 on the second half line and OU +2, while losing on Wyoming +7 and SDSU -4. But, we went 3-2 on half play prop bets. Winners included Tettleton Over 1.5 TDs, Brazil Over 85.5 receiving yards and Escobar Over 67.5 receiving yards, while our losers were the aforemention Turbin play and that goofy, cross game fantasy play of Ohio +0.5 over Temple. We didnt have a chance there. And it might be the last time we take a flier on such an unusual play. But, hey, we’ll take a 4-3 start and the +0.2 Units (thats 20 bucks if your unit is $100 like mine are) of profit. We’ll try not to spend it all in one place. Actually, thats a bold faced lie. After a two-day break, the bowl action kicks back up tonight and that’s exactly where we are spening Saturday’s profit and then some. Read more »