Big 10 Out Of Conference Games

Bowl Chronicles: New Year’s Day Edition

January 1, 2011
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Have you been enjoying bowl season so far? Plenty of storylines so far. After early chalk dominance, we got the promised underdog run the final couple days of the calendar year. The JCB, and hopefully you dear readers as well, benefited. The Bowl Chronicle record stands at 19-9, +9 Units. The last four days of 2010 will be remembered fondly. The underdogs run that we promise every bowl season has come through again with the pupsters. Since Tuesday, the underdogs are 10-3 ATS and after a 1-8 start, underdogs now stand even with the chalk this bowl season as 11 favorites have covered and 11 dogs have covered this postseason. Here’s hoping the dogs arent done barking.

 Today the action is Big 10 heavy with five conference teams going off the board. I brought up a handful of conference props in a post the other day. I saw these too late to plunk any action down, but I’m following them nevertheless, waving the Big 10 flag all the way. As far as total  bowl wins go, the Big 12 was -4.5 wins over the Big 10. That one is already a winner, thanks to the Big 10 going 2-0 in head to heads with the Big 12. Oh, and the overall Big 12 sucking this postseason. The other league listed on a total win head to head with the Big 10 was the big, bad, fast SEC. The SEC was -5.5 wins, but trail the Big 10 2-0 coming into today with the league on a 0-3 start. Actually, this prop is done as well. Even if the SEC sweeps the Big 10 today and win the rest of their bowl games while the Big 10 loses all of theirs, it would only net a 7-2 SEC advantage. Big 10 backers there can already go spend their money. With 60 total points in two games and six games left, the Big 10 is also on pace to go over the 206.5 number for total combined points that same book set.

The Big 10 has already paid off for a lot folks. So far in bowl season, the SEC and Big 12 have been overrated chalk, the Big 10 underrated underdogs. So what do we get on the first day of the year? Not one, not two, but four games with the Big 10 catching points against either the SEC or Big 12. Plus a fifth Big 10 team catching points in the Rose Bowl. And since its not a Pac-10 team with them in Pasadena, they might have a chance there. Did you resolve to be an even bigger Big 10 homer in 2011? If so, then this post is for you.

Capital One Bowl: Alabama Vs Michigan State, 1:00, ESPN. Lines, Alabama -10, O/U 52.5

I am surprised by how many people feel the Spartans dont have a chance in this game. I chuckle when I hear people point to their troubles in Iowa City as proof they’re not worthy of their 11-1 record, while somehow overlooking a similar looking shellacking they put on fellow Big 10 Champ Wisconsin. In the common foe department, both teams handled Penn State without much of a sweat, but the Spartans effort was on the road, in November, against a much more improved and feisty PSU team than Alabama faced in Week 2.  Oh, yeah, that’s right in the SEC vs the Big 10. Silly me. Its an automatic mismatch. Phfft. Actually think again. This is the 19th straight year the leagues have met in this bowl contest and its a dead heat 9-9 in the previous matches. Eight of the last 11 Capital One Citrus Bowls have been decided by a touchdown or less and the average margin of victory in all Big 10/SEC Citrus Bowl matches us a shade under 9 points per game. I dont need much convincing to take a stab with the Big 10 team catching double digits in this one, despite the disparate differences in the program’s brand names.

The Spartans underrated defensive line, anchored by Jerel Worthy, and their playmaking LBs of Jones and Gordon will relish going up against the 1-2 rushing punch of Ingram and Richardson. The Spartans might yield some yards, but they’re not going to be steamrolled. And they will spend more than their share of series standing up to the Tide, forcing punts. I worry about any team matching up with the hulking talent that is the Tide’s Julio Jones and their weaponry downfield. The Spartans will get burned. But they also will MAKE PLAYS in pass defense. In the mold of great secondaries during other peak times in MSU history, its a big play defense. All four starters can get picks and they’re among the national leaders in passes defended. Here;s how this is going to go when Alabama has the ball. The Tide will have a lot of good looking drives. But, the Spartans have stood tall the most all season when it matters the most. This is one of the more clutch red zone defenses in the country. The Spartans turned so many games in their favor because they stiffened up and thwarted scoring drives. Here’s a stat to keep in mind while this game plays out: 41 times the foe has driven into the MSU red zone, but they have nearly as many FG or less endings (20) to TD endings (21), Basically half the time, the other team doesnt get a touchdown when they’re in scoring range. Michigan fans know exactly what I’m talking about. MSU will cover this number because they will turn a couple 7-point drives into 3-point drives. If they turn those into 0-point drives, they’ll escape with the upset. Read more »

ACC/Big 10 Challenge, Part 2

December 1, 2010
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I’m certainly no ACC/Big 10 Challenge historian, but despite winning the event for the first time a year ago, I doubt the Big 10 has had as many nights in the Challenge as they did last night. It wasnt just pulling out four of five games and putting them in the W column. It was the manner in which they won. Three teams pulled out double digit victories. Ohio State had scored all the points they would need to beat Florida State about half way through the second half. Illinois totally outclassed North Carolina. In a 7-game series, it looks like the Illini would win easily 4 games to 1. Northwestern woodshedded Georgia Tech, looking, uh, explosive all the way. The only winner not by double digits was Michigan, which won by 8 points, on the road, as a 9-point underdog. Might as well have been a double digit. Only an amazing comeback and a killer, clutch shot at the buzzer by Wake Forest saved the ACC from being blanked last night as they squeezed out a win over Iowa. Heading into the final night, the Big 10 leads 4-2 and appears primed to win its second straight challenge. Can the league coax out 2 more wins? Let’s take a look.

NC State at Wisconsin…….The Badgers rarely lose at the Kohl Center. They are a better program than NC State. The Badgers look to have their defense in midseason form already, but are still trying to replace lost perimeter offense with the Trevan Hughes and Brian Bohannon departures. The Pack wont score 50 points and the Badgers eventually ease by with a big second half run.

Indiana at Boston College……First real test of the season for the young Hoosiers. A year ago, they had a habit of playing great for 30-35 minutes, but playing so horrifically bad for the other 5-10 minutes that they had no chance to win. Personally, I think its the best young talent in the league, but probably a year away from making any conference noise. I do feel they are good enough to net this win. We’ll see.

Purdue at Virginia Tech……perhaps two of the most experienced teams in the country. A lot of senior starters in both lineups. Both are recovering from early season losses. Tech has losses to UNLV and KState. Purude lost to Richmond. No shame really in any of those losses. Except it shows that the Hokies arent quite a top-20 yet and the Boilers will struggle without Robbie Hummel. Tech plays nothing but close games. I wouldnt expect anything different in this one. I would not be surprised with any result tonight, but the Hokies are playing at home and at full strength. Its the type of win their NCAA resumes have lacked the last two years. This is a must win for the OOC dossier. I think they nudge out a tight victory in Blackburgh.

Penn State at Maryland……Can we quickly substitute in both football teams and play a game in that venue? That would be fun. On the hardwood, not so much. Dont be surprised if Maryland ends up a top-3 team in the ACC. Dont be surprised if Penn State finishes in the Big 10 basement. Be surprised if the Nits spring the upset. This is the only game I dont think the Big 10 has any chance of winning tonight. Read more »

ACC/Big 10 Challenge, Part One

November 30, 2010
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It hasnt been a great start to the season for the Big 10. This was expected to be a banner season, but for the JCB, the league underperformed a bit in Feast Week. We set the bar at 10.5 teams wins and e-predicted they would go over. But, Michigan State was Kemba Walkered in paradise and fell short of the Maui title. Wisconsin couldnt score against Notre Dame. Purdue limped in a loss to Richmond. Michigan played great defense, but came up winless in Atlantic City because they couldnt buy a bucket. All told, the league came into the barn with 10 wins. Not bad, but short of what I thought they could do. Next up is the ACC/Big 10 Challenge. A year after winning the event for the first time, the league is already in a hole this year thanks to last night’s win by Virginia at Minnesota. Perplexing because the Gophers were the clear Big 10 overachiever during Feast Week by taking the Puerto Rico Tip-Off. And not much was expected out of Virginia. In Maui, they didnt look like a team that had a great closing kick, but they outscored the Gophers by 18 points in the second half. Although maybe if we counted Feast Week wins by the Gophers over UNC and Illinois over Maryland, the Big 10 is technically off to a 2-1 start. Anyway, here’s a brief and hardly comprehensive look at the five games tonight in the Challenge.

Ohio State at Florida State. Line, OSU -4.5

I wonder if many casual hoop fans realize the amount of talent that Leonard Hamilton has collected in Tallahasee. The Noles play a 9-man rotation of players getting double digit minutes. Seven of those players were all at least 4-star recruits, per Rivals, and ranked in the top-20 of their position and top-150 overall in their respective recruiting classes. An eigth, point guard Derwin Kitchen, was also a four star and among the top JUCU recruits in 2008. Every option Hamilton has is a guru approved player. And there arent many rosters in the ACC as talented as this one.

It’s also a big, athletic team, that Hamilton uses to hammer teams with half court defense. The Noles are the poster team for the new ACC. Once known for its elegant, talented play, the conference, while still talented, has taken a decidedly defensive turn in recent years. A year ago, the ACC had the lowest points per possession output of any league that received multiple bids in the NCAA Tournament. Suddenly Hamilton’s style of play is en vogue in the ACC and he’s parlayed that into consecutive upper division finishes and bids into the NCAA tournament. Often, they play uglier than a Wisconsin game. Hamilton likes it that way. He’s always been a defense first coach. Sometimes a defense only coach. Despite the talent on his roster today, he doesnt have anyone with an all around offensive game that makes defenses worry. They had that with Toney Douglass in 2008-09, but havent come close to replicating that kind of scoring. But, the Noles made it back to the tournament despite his departure and remain a likely at-large bid candidate this year on the backs of their remarkable team defense. Its impossible to shoot well against the Noles. And they are a living block party. A year ago, they blocked one of every 6 shots their foes took. This year, they’re averaging around 9 blocks a game. But that aspect of the game wasnt a factor against Florida over the weekend, the first legit team the Noles played. They could only register a couple of blocks against the athletic Gator frontcourt. And, while they held down their shooting, the Noles own offensive woes bit them in the rear. The Gators had mini scoring spurts to end the first half and start the second half and that was they needed to open up a comfortable lead and stay ahead in the game through the final buzzer.

Speaking of Florida, we saw Ohio State handle the Gators with ease earlier in the month. They dominated the second half and cruised to a road win during the 24-hoop marathon event two weeks ago tonight. If you like comparing apples to apples, you have to like the Bucks in this one. Both have played one true team this year. Both played Florida. One looked like a ready made Sweet 16 team in an impressive road win. The other labored, barely scored 50 and lost at home. The Noles have talent, but obviously so do the Bucks. Plus with guys like Lighty, Diebler and Bufurd, I know this team can rely some on its shooting and offensive game. It’ll be interesting to see how freshmen Jared Sullinger, the cant miss blue chip power forward for OSU handles the FSU size and bodies on the inside. I could see him struggling a bit. In the end, the Bucks have too many consistent scoring options. They pull away in the second half. Read more »

Notre Dame/Michigan: The Winner Peaks (Part I)

August 7, 2010
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 I have talked on and on about how strong an underdog series the Notre Dame-Michigan rivalry is. While the offseason may have changed the narrative of Notre Dame’s independence,  I dont expect the regular season to change the underdog rising up in this series. It’s the identity of this rivalry. Without getting bogged down in numbers and records, let’s just say the underdog has won this game outright as often as the favorite has. The pup is dominant against the spread. With the current line reading Notre Dame -5.5, I’d be reluctant to boast of an easy Irish win.  Let’s rehash this, but in all new words. How about we focus on an internet meme I attempted to spread a year ago about the rivalry: The underdog typically plays its best game of the season in this matchup. We’re going to break this down and see how legit this is or if it’s a fabrication of my selective imagination, perhaps even a rehearsed excuse for the Wolverines when pondering some of their notable failures in the series. To get to the bottom of this I’ve prepared a scatter plot graph mapping quantative data points that are a stew of pointspreads, records, player value and unit effeciency ratings with the luck quotient factored in. Check that. We’re doing this the old-fashioned, crusty sports personality way: loud, steadfast opinions, based off of kneejerk assumptions, cheerypicked memories and accusations of ignorance if you disagree with me.

The poster is from the early 1940s, right before the series took a three decade hiatus. The underdog identity only tracks back to 1978 when the modern series began and has continuted uninterrupted save for the occassional two-year break they’ve taken from each other. I’m breaking this up into three parts: the aughts of recent times, the 1990s and games played between these two teams in the Bo-coached era. Let’s get this started and look back at the results from some of the most recent games.

2009: Michigan 38-34. Line Notre Dame -3. Underdog covers and wins game outright

The Wolverines only won four other games in 2009, all at home: Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Indiana and Delaware State. This is a no brainer. No question, the underdog played its best game of the season in this one. Read more »

Cy-Hawk Rivalry: Beware Of Something, I Just Dont Know What

August 3, 2010
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(Picking up theseries of sneak peaks at the Big 10′s non-league games with the Cy-Hawk rivalry. Previous posts in this series can be found here.)

Do you know why Iowa State will hang tough with Iowa next month? I can all but guarantee the ‘Clones will give a strong run at the outright upset, keep the game within single digits and cover the current +12.5 oddsmakers are giving them in advance on this rivalry game. And I know all this why? We’re not breaking down line matchups or corners vs wideouts. I’m not announcing after thorough looks of tape that Austen Arnaud is ready to go off for ISU. I dont even have a goofball stat from the history books to toss around detailing something fancy like the workmanlike success of  bowl winners from the year, with at least 8 starters back on offense, in September rivalry games. Nope none of that. The Cyclones will nearly this win this sucker by their sheer luck in me not going to the window and jumping on their bandwagon. Wait, do the Cyclones even have one of those? Whatever. I wont be playing the game. And that fortune favors the Clones.

That’s not to say there isnt some history pointing to Iowa State. After all, they are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 games in the series. Whoa. That’s a pretty nifty run. And the type of history you would think I would be interested in. Except the only two times I’ve bit on this apple, its been sour. I was crushed both times. Seven years ago in 2003, I sent emails out to all my buddies detailing what was a five game winning streak on the part of Iowa State and, so convinced theshort-favored Hawks were a trap, may or not may not have invoked the L-word. The next day? The  Hawks put  a 41-20 pasting on the Clones, not to mention my reputation. I can still hear the voice of the buddy who chided me the rest of the day for sounding like I knew what I was talking about and costing him money. Oops, like I say, listening to me may be hazardous to your wallet.  Anyway, fast forward to last year. I again decide to test the waters on the Cyclone side.  It was the season debut of Big 10 Picks a year ago. I had to make a call on the game. Why not side with history? After all, they had covered every game in the series since the ’03 debacle.  And Iowa had looked so pathetic the week before against Northern Iowa. What could go wrong?  Turns out a lot. Like 4 killer turnovers paving the way for a 35-3 Iowa rout. I didnt have ISU +33. This history is a siren call towards the rocks of a broken bank account. At least for me. So, I’ll sit this one out.

When it comes down to it, it only looks like a historical trend, even if it dates to the late 1990s. Compare that to, say, the Notre Dame-Michigan and Georgia Tech-Clemson series, both which trend so far to the underdog that they’re automatic plays for me every year. The ND/UM series history dates back to the late 1970s and incorporates all of the modern games played between the programs. The ACC clash has been going to the dogs for over two decades.  The true history of this series is decidedly in Iowa’s corner. They spent the better part of two decades thumping the Cyclones after the schools renewed the football series in 1977. The Hawks won 17 of 21 games, including a dominant 15 wins in a row with just two contests decided by single digits. Iowa State took advantage of the departing Hayden Fry years and ensuing years of struggle while Ferentz established his program to temporarily turn the tables. They actually won five straight beginning in 1998. Paced by Seneca Wallace, the Clones delivered Iowa their only loss during the Brad Banks-led 2002 season. They’ve pulled off a pair of major home upsets: in 2005, clocking 8th ranked Iowa 23-3 and in 2007 overcoming long odds–they were 17-point dogs–to beat Iowa 15-13, sandwiched in between losses to Kent State, Northern Iowa and Toledo. On that day, Iowa fans would have raised millions on the spot in donations to send to Ann Arbor so they could offer a big enough salary to entice Captain Kirk to leave. Helped by that five game winning streak at the front end of this era, the Cyclones are 7-5 straight up, 10-2 against the spread in this rivalry.

I wont bet against Iowa at Kinnick Stadium. I wont bet Iowa State, period. And combine them all together, then all bets should be off. Literally. Do you remember the last two played in this series at Kinnick? Talk about shenanigans. In 2006, Instead of taking a knee, Iowa popped off a long TD run during the waning seconds in what would have been the next to last timed play from scrimmage. It was a classic gambling moment.  However, the score, which would have netted the Hawks a cover on the -14 line, was nullified on a penalty. So the Hawks just marched back, snapped the football and one plunge into the line later, the game was over. What do you suppose the Over/Under was for number of Iowa boosters in the crowd who wanted a private inquisition with the referee who made that call? Whatever that number is, I bet the number of those same boosters who wanted to strangle Ferentz after the 2008 game is even higher. Two years ago, He instructed his team to take a late safety in the closing seconds, making the score 17-5 and single-handedly flipping the winning tickets from Iowa -13 to Iowa State +13.  With Iowa then giving the ball back on a free kick, Hawkeye backers had no chance to make up that score. I still havent grasped the game theory behind that move. It just didnt seem like a relevant move. This came after a couple of tough seasons for the Hawks.  I swear Ferentz did this on purpose as a  middle finger to the bitching about him within the fanbase. He knows boosters gamble on the home team. He was laughing the whole way, I am sure of it. Regardless, it doesnt change the fact that the last two times these teams have played in this stadium, the spread was up in the air until the final seconds, decided by a penalty and an intentional safety. Who knows what will happen this year? I do know I wont be anywhere near the action and its already a big relief.